Week of March 7 - 15
There could not have been a more weirder week than what this week brought. Reminiscent of the Netflix series, "Stranger Things" where events occur that no one can believe is actually happening made headlines beginning Monday and continue as of this recap being written post-March 15. Fortunately, for me personally, racing continued and I had a good week of handicapping.
The week kicked off with the shocking story that top national trainers Jorge Navarro and Jason Serivs, along with 25 others were served with federal indictments for using illegal drugs on the horses under their care. Immediately the two trainers were suspended and all their horses were scratched from cards where they'd been entered, including Gulfstream where the two are based during the winter.
By the end of the day and through the first part of Wednesday more headlines began to surface on social media about what would become of the purse money and results from their star runners. Most especially Servis' Maximum Security who'd just been named 3yo of the year and had won the inaugural $20 Million Saudi Cup. By Tuesday the horses were moved to other trainers and it was announced that Maximum Security would be moved to the Bob Baffert barn. Then came news that the connections of Midnight Bissou, who ran 2nd in the Saudi Cup were considering a law suit to have the prize money moved to their corner. I found it interesting that on Wednesday when the TVG broadcast began the on-air hosts simply said that the TVG Corporation supported proper care for all equine athletes and that nothing more would be said about the story. Leading into the week the national and international headlines on all news broadcasts had been coverage of the outbreak and spread of the coronavirus or "Covid-19" which is a flu-like virus but reportedly worse. It was recommended for people, especially older people to avoid cruise lines. But Monday afternoon the local news showed seven ships leaving the Port of Miami and several people who were interviewed as they boarded expressed no worries, that they were taking precautions. Then Tuesday the first of the cruise lines suspended all operations, followed by most other. By Tuesday afternoon the NBA suspended their season, quickly followed much to my dismay by the NHL doing the same as we entered the final three weeks and the playoff push. Then came word that even Disney was closing it's doors....
Ohio schools, where I'm originally from, closed down for three weeks but both Broward and Miami-Dade held press conferences that they would remain open. But on Friday afternoon they announced they would close for at least the next two weeks - the first of which was a regular school week and the following was originally scheduled as Spring Break. By late afternoon on Friday the Florida Dept. of Education announced ALL schools in Florida would be closed for the next two weeks. I knew with the NBA & NHL closing, followed by first the NCAA announcing the "March Madness" would be held without fans, and then was cancelled, that there were good chances that the racing industry - even though held outside - would probably feel the pressure to follow suit. On Thursday, early in the afternoon Santa Anita became the first to announce that indeed they would begin racing without fans on site. Then sister-track Laurel followed suit. And as I watched the live feed from Gulfstream late in the Thursday card they followed suit. And Keeneland said they would open without fans the first week of April.
Uh oh - what about my upcoming trip to New Orleans and Louisiana Derby Day? I was encouraged that Oaklawn announced they WOULD allow fans on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. And the Fair Grounds announced they were taking precautions and welcomed guests. Late Thursday I looked online at New Orleans headlines and there were very few headlines and several stories about how conscious local officials were of the tourism industry and workers. I went to the Gray Line Tours website which we'd purchased tours for next Friday from and their headline read, "We're Open For Business, Come Visit Us" and I was encouraged. Friday the Fair Grounds had a 6 pm Starlight post time and around 3 pm they posted they were open and to "come on out and enjoy food and racing." Then about 4 pm the governor's office in Louisiana announced crowds with more than 250 people would be banned in the state as a precaution. I knew it was only a matter of time and sure enough by late in the day Friday the Fair Grounds followed suit by announcing they'd run all races, but without fans.
But, through all this, the good news was that ALL racing venues remained open to horsemen and all the connections, so racing continued. Since I often play online that meant that for me, my racing hobby would hardly skip a beat as the week played out. And so, the Sunrise Simulcast Center became the focus of my racing week.....
Wednesday March 11
The first day kicked off with a bang as the opener featured 3yo maiden claimers sprinting a short five and a half furlongs on the dirt. I remarked in my analysis that Alaskan SHOULD win but he was running out of chances as he'd already missed in six tries. But I was willing to forgive that "rule" on two angles. First, his last two tries had been on turf with the most recent a failed experiment around two turns. So the return to dirt was a positive angle as he'd run three straight Beyer figures that would bury this field on that surface. Second and most importantly, today he made his first start off the claim for trainer Gilberto Zerpa and that is a big 31% win angle. Toss in that the leading rider Irad Ortiz joins the party and he looks the part. My original plan was a minimum investment but as the wagering unfolded he seemed more of a standout and I upped the bet. He broke sharply and pressed the pace of the 6/1 third choice to the turn, then got to the front. A 9/1 first timer had made a run to get within a half length with a furlong to go but he found another gear and pulled clear by better than a length. Doubled my money on the even money proposition.
Passed the second and the third, watched my top choices win both events at 3/5 and 2/1 odds. Had to take heart that the numbers say I'm far better off passing when I opt not to bet. The fourth was about the weakest maiden claiming event I've seen at the meet. No one with any experience had anything to even hint at as a wagering angle. So, a good spot for a debut runner. Stanley Hough was sending out Proprioception and as I noted, Hough was not having a meet worth noting and his numbers with first time starters were below average. BUT Luis Saez was riding today and that was a 40% win angle. In this field that was enough of an edge. He broke sharply and was in front, being pressed by two outsiders at 11/1 and 8/1. Fought off a strong bid from the latter and was clear by daylight into the stretch. Then the 3/2 favorite made a late run, but he remained clear by almost a length under the wire. Two for two on the day!
My top choice scratched in the fifth and then I ran third and sixth in races six and seven. I had a 9/2 price in the ninth but my pick pulled up into the turn. That led us to the finale and my BET of the Day. There were two ways to look at Aerodynamic and I would agree that in the long run you won't make money on these kinds of propositions. But I would also argue that I seem to be pretty good at identifying runners in this situation that ARE likely winners and those that are bad bets. So here's the story. It was a maiden claimer on the turf for 3yo and yes, it's a Todd Pletcher. So there in and of itself lends more credence that he probably has some ability. Debuted at the weaker GPW fall meet and was a good third. Here at the Championship Meet he dropped in for $40K, a reasonable drop and ran fourth as the 8/5 favorite. OK, but today he absolutely plunged to $16K. BIG RED warning flags waving saying "FOR SALE" and an obvious statement that they've given up on him. But it's been my experience that Pletcher more so than most, is willing to let go of runners like Aerodynamic in this situation, but he'll do so by putting them somewhere they'll win. Why run for $25 or $20 when you "probably" will win if you can drop another notch and actually win? Add in top rider Irad Ortiz and he's the best of the day. The on-air analysts pointed all the negatives out and his odds drifted up to what I thought was a big overlay at 1-2, his true win odds unless there was something seriously wrong had to be in the 1/5 range. Pressed in third to the far turn and you could tell Ortiz had a handful of horse, I knew I was the winner. Moved to the lead easily, was roused to sprint for home and widened with each and every stride. Cashed for $30 big ones to close out a 3-win day to kick off the week.
Thursday/Friday March 12, 13
After the big start, not so good through the next two days. Wednesday's card, even though I produced three winners and a "prime time pick," was really a card that was mostly a lot of "go figure" races. Even the first winner had had "issues" and originally was a minimum bet. But the Thursday and Friday cards were even more so. DRF analyst Marty McGee led off his comments on the first saying there were "slim pickin's" - indeed. I noted that the probable favorite had shown BRIEF speed for a quarter of a mile and stopped BADLY in MSW company so she probably was the favorite. Held on by a neck at 7/5, but I'd never have bet her. In the third a first-of-the-claim runner for trainer Victor Barboza, 64% with those was the minimum play. Fourth at a big 7/1. Had a pick in the fifth, a MSW on turf but he scratched when the early races were off the grass. Stuck with my pick in the off-the-turf sixth, and I have to admit it was largely because hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney who indicated the filly had some good dirt form in the past. Was 4/5 and ran 4th of five. I was tempted listening to the pre-race analysis to look at the one runner who had dirt form, and that one romped at 9/5. Another Barboza first off the claim ran third at 2/1 in the 7th. And I closed out the day with not one but two Todd Pletcher turf runners who ran 5th at 9/5 and sixth at 7/5. Winless for the day.
Friday was the first day of "fanless" racing at Gulfstream and kudos to the Gulfstream racing team, especially the on-air analysts Acacia Courtney & Ron Nicoletti who did a great job of making it feel "normal." And to be fair, largely when you watch the races on the live stream or television you typically don't see a lot of people other than the connections in the paddock; and all those people were allowed on the property. I did find it odd that I heard on Sports Talk Radio that morning that the casinos & simulcast center was open. I wondered if you just "happened" to walk out the door or leave the breeze-way area to approach the rail and watch the live running were you told to go back or were the doors locked? I seemed to be back on track in Friday's second when I nailed Septemberten as the winner.
About a month ago a Godolphin maiden had looked awfully good on the return to the races and had won for fun as my BEST of the day. In that race, remember it was a MSW, Septemberten ran third. On the drop in for $40K tag today he seemed obvious. My only concern was that he'd already had NINE chances and finished third in SIX of them. If ever he would win, it was today I thought. So I doubled the bet largely on the "KEY Race" angle. Pressured on the lead to the turn before let loose and then he ran away to win by seven lengths as much the best. Got back nearly $20 and thought, "Here we go, a good day to even out the win percentage!" But that was it for the day as largely the rest of the card followed the "go figure" theme for the week. Passed four in a row then a fading fifth at even money followed by an even third at 5/2. Passed the 9th and ran a non-threatening fifth at 7/5 to close out Friday the 13th.
All the races were being broadcast from tracks around the country without fans and I enjoyed seeing TVG analyst & reporter Brittney Eurton live at Oaklawn with her take on what it was like to be there on a big day of racing without fans in the stands. Went back and forth about just how many tracks to play today. I knew I'd play Oaklawn where they had multiple stakes and the nationally spotlighted Grade 2 Rebel for three-year-olds. And of course the local races at Gulfstream. I looked over the entries for Aqueduct, Tampa, Laurel, Santa Anita and really found little of interest except at Laurel. So my plan was to play just those three tracks. But when I purchased the Gulfstream past performances I inadvertently downloaded the pp's for the Fair Grounds. OK, guess I'll look in New Orleans also. To add a little flavor to the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" I told Kim that unless she objected I was going to get out two of my "Wall of Fame" racing pictures and hang them on the wall. I went through the many, many memorable photos of great racing moments and finally chose two. I picked my "Wise Dan" and "Tepin" pics because of the stories that go with them....
Wise Dan was one of my most favorite horses and a two-time horse of the year. I won many a race with him including two Breeders' Cup Mile wagers. But the story that goes with his photo is the year that we took Brad & Lauren to the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita and Brad was betting because he believes he brings my picks bad luck. They went with Kim for some photos and came back just before the BC Mile with Wise Dan who'd I said was my Best Bet. As they turned for home and Wise Dan accelerated to the lead I was surprised to hear Brad screaming and cheering. Fortunately I turned the video camera on and asked him why and he had THE biggest smile and flashed a $100 win ticket on Wise Dan. The Tepin photo has the opposite kind of story to start. In the 2015 Breeders' Cup I was at Keeneland with Keith and he was suffering through a long losing streak. As the BC Mile came up he said, "Who would you toss out to NOT make the trifecta?" I immediately replied the #7. He said, that's the favorite. I said, "Tepin is not nearly as good as everyone thinks and won't hit the board." I subsequently gave him three more numbers. Tepin won and the other three ran 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. Go figure. She went on to be a big time winner for me on several occasions. And so now they adorn the walls of the "Simulcast Center."
Two of the first bets for the day were Todd Pletcher runners at Gulfstream, both favored, both lost. But squeezed in between was my first from Laurel and All Brown proved way too good for the competition. Though a late run from a long shot made it interesting in the final 100 yards. After mistakenly getting the Fair Grounds past performances I did find three races I liked. The first of which was the opener and I won with Afleet Roger who ran away by daylight for my second winner. The weather at Oaklawn for the start of racing was miserable and the rain and fog so dense that it was difficult to see the runners for a lot of the race. No bet in the opener but in the second I liked Ready Orb Not. This was a one-mile (going two turns) race for non-winners of two lifetime in allowance conditions. Only three of the entries did NOT have double digit losses and I wasn't fond of any of those. 'Ready sat on the bubble with ten losses but as I learned long ago, if you "opened the window" by filtering out races that had multiple reasons to be tossed, I thought you could make a case for him. You could toss the turf tries and he had several races in open allowance company. Two back he'd been claimed by the leading trainer (31% overall) and ran 2nd at this mile trip here. AND his one win had come here at this exact distance. In the pre-race analysis the Oaklawn announcer talked about him but openly questioned if he was a viable win candidate. The crowd seemed to agree as he'd floated up from his 2/1 program odds to 5/1. I strongly considered backing off my double investment. But in the end I felt I was right and he was a solid pick. Came roaring up on the far turn, blew by to a multiple length lead and with the first finish line I knew I was home free with my first winner in Hot Springs. Paid a handsome $9.60 so I cashed for almost $50 and that I knew would probably go a long way towards making the day a winning one.
Right back with my second consecutive winner at the Fair Grounds when Listen up dueled through the lane and edged clear late. I'm off to a four-for-six start with only the Gulfstream races failing to produce. I "knew" I'd win the fifth at Oaklawn where Matroh was the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in a five horse field. He was a "Horse for the Course" with a 9/4-1-1 local record, had won three of his last four, and most importantly his last two Beyer figures, "paired" at that, of 94-93 would beat 204 of the 205 Beyers earned by the rest of the field. The five that left the gate quickly was down to four contenders as the trailer was some 20+ out of the TV picture. I was mildly concerned that of the four running I was sitting behind the three of them on the rail. Certainly I'm clearly best and run by them even if I go wide, right? The rider tried to find a seam, first moving towards a narrow opening that quickly closed, then back towards the rail, that was shut off and finally at the 16th pole made a hard right to move four wide into the clear. Too late, third. Miserable decisions by the jockey. Grrrr. At Laurel they had four small stakes and in the first one, the Nellie Morse I liked newly-turned four year old Arrifana who was perfect in one-turn trips at Laurel. As they went into the gate the TVG analysts noted that the second choice was an old classy mare but clearly wasn't a win threat. Turning for home Arrifana glided to the neck of that one who was leading but she was having none of that and the two battled to the wire. PHOTO FINISH. I thought, but wasn't positive, that I had the winner. And the TVG production people even said, "Even though it's officially a photo we're showing you the winner" and it was my pick, Arrifana. The photo showed it was desperately close, but a win's a win and I'd doubled the bet!
The sixth at Gulfstream was one of those races where as I looked at the past performances I thought, well, this is so obvious. But the horse I liked, Zaino Boyz was NOT the favorite nor the pick of any of the public analysts. How can they NOT see that this guy is clearly the LONE speed and jockey Emisael Jaramillo has won so many times wire-to-wire that track announcer Pete Aiello has begun to call him "The Minister of Speed." I was amazed that he was not the post time favorite or even the second choice. Right to the front, never threatened and won for fun.
The $7 payoff led to a return of a crisp $35 payoff! Next up was the fifth from Oaklawn and it was a Maiden Special event for 3yo going a mile and a sixteenth. And as you can see in my analysis below, it seemed almost "unfair" that Blackberry Wine was entered today. Check out my comments and his past performances:
When I saw his name in the entries I thought, "That can't be right, he was one of the favorites for the Grade 2 Risen Star a few weeks ago and I KNOW he wasn't a maiden." And then I remembered something about trainer Joe Sharp and medication DQ's so I looked it up and discovered what's in my analysis/comments. OK, it's a horse race but unless something really bizzare happens, he's a winner. Sat just off the leader while under tight restraint to the far turn, coasted to the front and then took off. As they spun out of the turn he literally was the only one in the television picture - and usually on the turn, into the stretch you can see even the trailers. Won for fun. Easy-peasy-pie.
After a second at Laurel (to a big longshot) I came right back at Oaklawn, yet again. This was an entry level allowance for 3yo and easily the Racing Secretary could have written into the conditions, "for 3yo who had Derby aspirations and want to get back on track" as most of these had run in some of the early Derby preps. One of them was Taishan who was from So Cal. He'd won his maiden with a big 81 Beyer then was most recently 4th in the Gr 3 Sham behind Bob Baffert's freakishly fast Authentic, who came right back to win the Grade 2 San Felipe last weekend. Taishan broke sharply, took command and wired the field without any problem, my third winner at Oaklawn and eighth on the day. The day began to even out a bit as I missed on the next four. The tenth at Gulfstream was a starter optional claimer on the turf and it was my Gulfstream BET of the Day. Dalarna was on a two race win streak, the most recent being in a starter stakes on President's Day. In her current form and with two recent Beyers that would beat 154 of the 157 career figures by the rest of the field she looked good. Was a touch hesitant because her regular rider was low percentage Victor LeBron. Some concern about a bounce off the two big figures recently were alleviated by a best-of-thirty bullet work for today. She sat patiently to the top of the stretch, awaited room then burst through an opening and won under wraps. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Missed on the next four, but it's worth the short story about the 2nd place finish in Gulfstream's featured Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie. On my way home from Jenny Craig Friday morning I had on a sports talk station and they were broadcasting from Gulfstream. The host is a big horse racing fan and on big days like today he often talks horses. He had a guest who was introduced as someone who gave out picks and that he'd been on a roll of late, and with good prices. When asked about his pick for the week he said, "I have a long shot in the feature at Gulfstream for tomorrow." My ears perked up and he talked about a horse who was 6/1 in the program. My pick was a late runner and there looked to be a lot of speed. The way the race set up I thought she'd overcome her "seconditis" and get the win. Sure enough, closed resolutely and got to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, and then a blur blew by to win. You guessed it, the radio guy's pick at 10/1. WOW. It was now time for the featured Grade 2 Rebel. I really liked the Bob Baffert favorite Nadal. He'd broken his maiden in style and made headlines when it was reported that before he even ran many "insiders" thought he was "THE" Derby horse of all the talented 3yo in the Baffert shedrow. I bet him in his first start against winners in the Grade 2 San Vicente going seven furlongs. He broke slowly, didn't get to the lead, dueled between horses, was headed, came back and drew off in a gutsy performance. But what impressed me was in the post-race interview Baffert was nearly giddy when saying "It was all him....I didn't get him into shape at all, just one average work. That was all pure talent." And he immediately said they were pointing for today, the Rebel Stakes. He drew the rail which meant he'd probably have to go to the front, and first time around two turns he would probably do that anyway. But shortly before post time the on air people remarked that not only was there other speed but the outside horse's trainer has said he WOULD go to the front and Baffert's Nadal would NOT get a free ride. Sure enough, right out of the gate there were four of them up close and they were sprint racing into the first turn. Nadal and the other So Cal horse put away the others but when the opening fraction was :22 and change I KNEW he'd never survive without a mid-race breather. But they continued to duel and the first half mile was in :46 flat. Sigh, no way he survives. As I told Kim later if a front runner going a mile and a sixteenth goes :23 and change and :47 and change alone on the lead that's often too fast; much less if they are pressured. So these fractions, almost ten lengths too fast would surely set up a closer. But when they hit the far turn, Nadal edged clear. Remarkable. As heads turned for home he was in front and being asked to finish the job. Track announcer Vic Stauffer said, "And now Nadal gets the acid test...." And amazingly he pulled clear. But inside the final 16th an 82/1 closer was making up ground. As he got close Nadal dug deep and inched clear again. As they crossed the line I said, out loud, "WOW."
Later I looked up the chart for the race because of comments that were made right after the race. Look at where the other front-runners, pace/pressers finished:
Again, wow. As I said at the beginning I looked at the Santa Anita card and didn't like anything so my intent was to avoid them. But then I read that another of Baffert's star 3yo was running in an allowance event. Charlatan figured to be a very short price, but a near certain winner if even half as good as the hype. As the race's post time approached on TVG they compared him to Triple Crown winner Justify. In their sprint debut they both won for fun and earned a 100+ Beyer. In the second start, actually on an off track like today at Santa Anita, Justify went a mile in an allowance race. Just like Charlatan. He won easily, then took the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby and the Triple Crown. Charlatan went easily to the front and the field got within three on the far turn without jockey Drayden Van Dyke moving his hands. When Charlatan turned for home and switched leads he opened up by at least ten, under wraps. Another WOW performance.
Discouraging that after the race trainer Bob Baffert was worried in his comments that he's heard that the Kentucky Derby might be moved to June or next fall. Strange times, strange times.
Sunday March 15
The final day of the week and I was hoping to carry on with a strong finish after the big day yesterday where I won with 44% of my picks :) I had the even money, "obvious" favorite in the opener only to see him sit off the loose-on-the-lead front runner at 13/1. Made his move too late, second. Then in the third race I thought the obvious class of the race was O.K. Kay in claiming event on the turf. The ONLY time 'Kay had run for a tag he'd won for fun. And he was exiting a KEY Laurel turf event, but that was last summer. If ready he's the winner. But I wasn't so sure to make an added money investment. Got the perfect trip under Paco Lopez and walked with it. Paid a huge $8.80 and I would cash for $22 on the minimum bet. But a little later I checked my wagering statement for the day and noticed that at 1:48 pm I'd made my bet. Then I don't know / don't remember what I must have been doing to be distracted, but apparently at 2:01 pm I made the bet again! WHAT???!!!! So I'm cashing for $44 and not $22, sweet!
So I DID have a double investment and it was a good one :) Missed in the fourth with a minimum play but in the fifth I liked Sylvanella a lot on the grass. It was a maiden claimer and she was making just her second start after running fourth in a MSW event. Drops in for a tag now. The alternative had been out four times, earned a similar Beyer figure but had already lost in maiden claiming company and seemed to have already reached her "top." Right to the front and never looked back :)
Whoooo hoooo. The sixth was my BET of the Day and I thought it was a piece of good handicapping. Remember I won with Septemberten on Friday? Out of what looked to be a KEY race? Well check out my analysis below.....
Sat just off the pace to the far turn, engaged the leader, dueled briefly then opened up to win going away. I missed on the last four, but I had a nice price payoff, and a double one at that AND hit with my BEST of the Day. A good day to top off a good week of handicapping!
Next week is Louisiana Derby Week - should be in New Orleans, but instead I'll be playing again from the Sunrise Simulcast Center!
Wednesday March 11
The first day kicked off with a bang as the opener featured 3yo maiden claimers sprinting a short five and a half furlongs on the dirt. I remarked in my analysis that Alaskan SHOULD win but he was running out of chances as he'd already missed in six tries. But I was willing to forgive that "rule" on two angles. First, his last two tries had been on turf with the most recent a failed experiment around two turns. So the return to dirt was a positive angle as he'd run three straight Beyer figures that would bury this field on that surface. Second and most importantly, today he made his first start off the claim for trainer Gilberto Zerpa and that is a big 31% win angle. Toss in that the leading rider Irad Ortiz joins the party and he looks the part. My original plan was a minimum investment but as the wagering unfolded he seemed more of a standout and I upped the bet. He broke sharply and pressed the pace of the 6/1 third choice to the turn, then got to the front. A 9/1 first timer had made a run to get within a half length with a furlong to go but he found another gear and pulled clear by better than a length. Doubled my money on the even money proposition.
Passed the second and the third, watched my top choices win both events at 3/5 and 2/1 odds. Had to take heart that the numbers say I'm far better off passing when I opt not to bet. The fourth was about the weakest maiden claiming event I've seen at the meet. No one with any experience had anything to even hint at as a wagering angle. So, a good spot for a debut runner. Stanley Hough was sending out Proprioception and as I noted, Hough was not having a meet worth noting and his numbers with first time starters were below average. BUT Luis Saez was riding today and that was a 40% win angle. In this field that was enough of an edge. He broke sharply and was in front, being pressed by two outsiders at 11/1 and 8/1. Fought off a strong bid from the latter and was clear by daylight into the stretch. Then the 3/2 favorite made a late run, but he remained clear by almost a length under the wire. Two for two on the day!
My top choice scratched in the fifth and then I ran third and sixth in races six and seven. I had a 9/2 price in the ninth but my pick pulled up into the turn. That led us to the finale and my BET of the Day. There were two ways to look at Aerodynamic and I would agree that in the long run you won't make money on these kinds of propositions. But I would also argue that I seem to be pretty good at identifying runners in this situation that ARE likely winners and those that are bad bets. So here's the story. It was a maiden claimer on the turf for 3yo and yes, it's a Todd Pletcher. So there in and of itself lends more credence that he probably has some ability. Debuted at the weaker GPW fall meet and was a good third. Here at the Championship Meet he dropped in for $40K, a reasonable drop and ran fourth as the 8/5 favorite. OK, but today he absolutely plunged to $16K. BIG RED warning flags waving saying "FOR SALE" and an obvious statement that they've given up on him. But it's been my experience that Pletcher more so than most, is willing to let go of runners like Aerodynamic in this situation, but he'll do so by putting them somewhere they'll win. Why run for $25 or $20 when you "probably" will win if you can drop another notch and actually win? Add in top rider Irad Ortiz and he's the best of the day. The on-air analysts pointed all the negatives out and his odds drifted up to what I thought was a big overlay at 1-2, his true win odds unless there was something seriously wrong had to be in the 1/5 range. Pressed in third to the far turn and you could tell Ortiz had a handful of horse, I knew I was the winner. Moved to the lead easily, was roused to sprint for home and widened with each and every stride. Cashed for $30 big ones to close out a 3-win day to kick off the week.
Thursday/Friday March 12, 13
After the big start, not so good through the next two days. Wednesday's card, even though I produced three winners and a "prime time pick," was really a card that was mostly a lot of "go figure" races. Even the first winner had had "issues" and originally was a minimum bet. But the Thursday and Friday cards were even more so. DRF analyst Marty McGee led off his comments on the first saying there were "slim pickin's" - indeed. I noted that the probable favorite had shown BRIEF speed for a quarter of a mile and stopped BADLY in MSW company so she probably was the favorite. Held on by a neck at 7/5, but I'd never have bet her. In the third a first-of-the-claim runner for trainer Victor Barboza, 64% with those was the minimum play. Fourth at a big 7/1. Had a pick in the fifth, a MSW on turf but he scratched when the early races were off the grass. Stuck with my pick in the off-the-turf sixth, and I have to admit it was largely because hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney who indicated the filly had some good dirt form in the past. Was 4/5 and ran 4th of five. I was tempted listening to the pre-race analysis to look at the one runner who had dirt form, and that one romped at 9/5. Another Barboza first off the claim ran third at 2/1 in the 7th. And I closed out the day with not one but two Todd Pletcher turf runners who ran 5th at 9/5 and sixth at 7/5. Winless for the day.
Friday was the first day of "fanless" racing at Gulfstream and kudos to the Gulfstream racing team, especially the on-air analysts Acacia Courtney & Ron Nicoletti who did a great job of making it feel "normal." And to be fair, largely when you watch the races on the live stream or television you typically don't see a lot of people other than the connections in the paddock; and all those people were allowed on the property. I did find it odd that I heard on Sports Talk Radio that morning that the casinos & simulcast center was open. I wondered if you just "happened" to walk out the door or leave the breeze-way area to approach the rail and watch the live running were you told to go back or were the doors locked? I seemed to be back on track in Friday's second when I nailed Septemberten as the winner.
About a month ago a Godolphin maiden had looked awfully good on the return to the races and had won for fun as my BEST of the day. In that race, remember it was a MSW, Septemberten ran third. On the drop in for $40K tag today he seemed obvious. My only concern was that he'd already had NINE chances and finished third in SIX of them. If ever he would win, it was today I thought. So I doubled the bet largely on the "KEY Race" angle. Pressured on the lead to the turn before let loose and then he ran away to win by seven lengths as much the best. Got back nearly $20 and thought, "Here we go, a good day to even out the win percentage!" But that was it for the day as largely the rest of the card followed the "go figure" theme for the week. Passed four in a row then a fading fifth at even money followed by an even third at 5/2. Passed the 9th and ran a non-threatening fifth at 7/5 to close out Friday the 13th.
Saturday March 14
All the races were being broadcast from tracks around the country without fans and I enjoyed seeing TVG analyst & reporter Brittney Eurton live at Oaklawn with her take on what it was like to be there on a big day of racing without fans in the stands. Went back and forth about just how many tracks to play today. I knew I'd play Oaklawn where they had multiple stakes and the nationally spotlighted Grade 2 Rebel for three-year-olds. And of course the local races at Gulfstream. I looked over the entries for Aqueduct, Tampa, Laurel, Santa Anita and really found little of interest except at Laurel. So my plan was to play just those three tracks. But when I purchased the Gulfstream past performances I inadvertently downloaded the pp's for the Fair Grounds. OK, guess I'll look in New Orleans also. To add a little flavor to the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" I told Kim that unless she objected I was going to get out two of my "Wall of Fame" racing pictures and hang them on the wall. I went through the many, many memorable photos of great racing moments and finally chose two. I picked my "Wise Dan" and "Tepin" pics because of the stories that go with them....
Wise Dan was one of my most favorite horses and a two-time horse of the year. I won many a race with him including two Breeders' Cup Mile wagers. But the story that goes with his photo is the year that we took Brad & Lauren to the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita and Brad was betting because he believes he brings my picks bad luck. They went with Kim for some photos and came back just before the BC Mile with Wise Dan who'd I said was my Best Bet. As they turned for home and Wise Dan accelerated to the lead I was surprised to hear Brad screaming and cheering. Fortunately I turned the video camera on and asked him why and he had THE biggest smile and flashed a $100 win ticket on Wise Dan. The Tepin photo has the opposite kind of story to start. In the 2015 Breeders' Cup I was at Keeneland with Keith and he was suffering through a long losing streak. As the BC Mile came up he said, "Who would you toss out to NOT make the trifecta?" I immediately replied the #7. He said, that's the favorite. I said, "Tepin is not nearly as good as everyone thinks and won't hit the board." I subsequently gave him three more numbers. Tepin won and the other three ran 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. Go figure. She went on to be a big time winner for me on several occasions. And so now they adorn the walls of the "Simulcast Center."
Two of the first bets for the day were Todd Pletcher runners at Gulfstream, both favored, both lost. But squeezed in between was my first from Laurel and All Brown proved way too good for the competition. Though a late run from a long shot made it interesting in the final 100 yards. After mistakenly getting the Fair Grounds past performances I did find three races I liked. The first of which was the opener and I won with Afleet Roger who ran away by daylight for my second winner. The weather at Oaklawn for the start of racing was miserable and the rain and fog so dense that it was difficult to see the runners for a lot of the race. No bet in the opener but in the second I liked Ready Orb Not. This was a one-mile (going two turns) race for non-winners of two lifetime in allowance conditions. Only three of the entries did NOT have double digit losses and I wasn't fond of any of those. 'Ready sat on the bubble with ten losses but as I learned long ago, if you "opened the window" by filtering out races that had multiple reasons to be tossed, I thought you could make a case for him. You could toss the turf tries and he had several races in open allowance company. Two back he'd been claimed by the leading trainer (31% overall) and ran 2nd at this mile trip here. AND his one win had come here at this exact distance. In the pre-race analysis the Oaklawn announcer talked about him but openly questioned if he was a viable win candidate. The crowd seemed to agree as he'd floated up from his 2/1 program odds to 5/1. I strongly considered backing off my double investment. But in the end I felt I was right and he was a solid pick. Came roaring up on the far turn, blew by to a multiple length lead and with the first finish line I knew I was home free with my first winner in Hot Springs. Paid a handsome $9.60 so I cashed for almost $50 and that I knew would probably go a long way towards making the day a winning one.
The sixth at Gulfstream was one of those races where as I looked at the past performances I thought, well, this is so obvious. But the horse I liked, Zaino Boyz was NOT the favorite nor the pick of any of the public analysts. How can they NOT see that this guy is clearly the LONE speed and jockey Emisael Jaramillo has won so many times wire-to-wire that track announcer Pete Aiello has begun to call him "The Minister of Speed." I was amazed that he was not the post time favorite or even the second choice. Right to the front, never threatened and won for fun.
The $7 payoff led to a return of a crisp $35 payoff! Next up was the fifth from Oaklawn and it was a Maiden Special event for 3yo going a mile and a sixteenth. And as you can see in my analysis below, it seemed almost "unfair" that Blackberry Wine was entered today. Check out my comments and his past performances:
When I saw his name in the entries I thought, "That can't be right, he was one of the favorites for the Grade 2 Risen Star a few weeks ago and I KNOW he wasn't a maiden." And then I remembered something about trainer Joe Sharp and medication DQ's so I looked it up and discovered what's in my analysis/comments. OK, it's a horse race but unless something really bizzare happens, he's a winner. Sat just off the leader while under tight restraint to the far turn, coasted to the front and then took off. As they spun out of the turn he literally was the only one in the television picture - and usually on the turn, into the stretch you can see even the trailers. Won for fun. Easy-peasy-pie.
After a second at Laurel (to a big longshot) I came right back at Oaklawn, yet again. This was an entry level allowance for 3yo and easily the Racing Secretary could have written into the conditions, "for 3yo who had Derby aspirations and want to get back on track" as most of these had run in some of the early Derby preps. One of them was Taishan who was from So Cal. He'd won his maiden with a big 81 Beyer then was most recently 4th in the Gr 3 Sham behind Bob Baffert's freakishly fast Authentic, who came right back to win the Grade 2 San Felipe last weekend. Taishan broke sharply, took command and wired the field without any problem, my third winner at Oaklawn and eighth on the day. The day began to even out a bit as I missed on the next four. The tenth at Gulfstream was a starter optional claimer on the turf and it was my Gulfstream BET of the Day. Dalarna was on a two race win streak, the most recent being in a starter stakes on President's Day. In her current form and with two recent Beyers that would beat 154 of the 157 career figures by the rest of the field she looked good. Was a touch hesitant because her regular rider was low percentage Victor LeBron. Some concern about a bounce off the two big figures recently were alleviated by a best-of-thirty bullet work for today. She sat patiently to the top of the stretch, awaited room then burst through an opening and won under wraps. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Missed on the next four, but it's worth the short story about the 2nd place finish in Gulfstream's featured Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie. On my way home from Jenny Craig Friday morning I had on a sports talk station and they were broadcasting from Gulfstream. The host is a big horse racing fan and on big days like today he often talks horses. He had a guest who was introduced as someone who gave out picks and that he'd been on a roll of late, and with good prices. When asked about his pick for the week he said, "I have a long shot in the feature at Gulfstream for tomorrow." My ears perked up and he talked about a horse who was 6/1 in the program. My pick was a late runner and there looked to be a lot of speed. The way the race set up I thought she'd overcome her "seconditis" and get the win. Sure enough, closed resolutely and got to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, and then a blur blew by to win. You guessed it, the radio guy's pick at 10/1. WOW. It was now time for the featured Grade 2 Rebel. I really liked the Bob Baffert favorite Nadal. He'd broken his maiden in style and made headlines when it was reported that before he even ran many "insiders" thought he was "THE" Derby horse of all the talented 3yo in the Baffert shedrow. I bet him in his first start against winners in the Grade 2 San Vicente going seven furlongs. He broke slowly, didn't get to the lead, dueled between horses, was headed, came back and drew off in a gutsy performance. But what impressed me was in the post-race interview Baffert was nearly giddy when saying "It was all him....I didn't get him into shape at all, just one average work. That was all pure talent." And he immediately said they were pointing for today, the Rebel Stakes. He drew the rail which meant he'd probably have to go to the front, and first time around two turns he would probably do that anyway. But shortly before post time the on air people remarked that not only was there other speed but the outside horse's trainer has said he WOULD go to the front and Baffert's Nadal would NOT get a free ride. Sure enough, right out of the gate there were four of them up close and they were sprint racing into the first turn. Nadal and the other So Cal horse put away the others but when the opening fraction was :22 and change I KNEW he'd never survive without a mid-race breather. But they continued to duel and the first half mile was in :46 flat. Sigh, no way he survives. As I told Kim later if a front runner going a mile and a sixteenth goes :23 and change and :47 and change alone on the lead that's often too fast; much less if they are pressured. So these fractions, almost ten lengths too fast would surely set up a closer. But when they hit the far turn, Nadal edged clear. Remarkable. As heads turned for home he was in front and being asked to finish the job. Track announcer Vic Stauffer said, "And now Nadal gets the acid test...." And amazingly he pulled clear. But inside the final 16th an 82/1 closer was making up ground. As he got close Nadal dug deep and inched clear again. As they crossed the line I said, out loud, "WOW."
Again, wow. As I said at the beginning I looked at the Santa Anita card and didn't like anything so my intent was to avoid them. But then I read that another of Baffert's star 3yo was running in an allowance event. Charlatan figured to be a very short price, but a near certain winner if even half as good as the hype. As the race's post time approached on TVG they compared him to Triple Crown winner Justify. In their sprint debut they both won for fun and earned a 100+ Beyer. In the second start, actually on an off track like today at Santa Anita, Justify went a mile in an allowance race. Just like Charlatan. He won easily, then took the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby and the Triple Crown. Charlatan went easily to the front and the field got within three on the far turn without jockey Drayden Van Dyke moving his hands. When Charlatan turned for home and switched leads he opened up by at least ten, under wraps. Another WOW performance.
Discouraging that after the race trainer Bob Baffert was worried in his comments that he's heard that the Kentucky Derby might be moved to June or next fall. Strange times, strange times.
Rebel Stakes Day Racing Highlights
Sunday March 15
The final day of the week and I was hoping to carry on with a strong finish after the big day yesterday where I won with 44% of my picks :) I had the even money, "obvious" favorite in the opener only to see him sit off the loose-on-the-lead front runner at 13/1. Made his move too late, second. Then in the third race I thought the obvious class of the race was O.K. Kay in claiming event on the turf. The ONLY time 'Kay had run for a tag he'd won for fun. And he was exiting a KEY Laurel turf event, but that was last summer. If ready he's the winner. But I wasn't so sure to make an added money investment. Got the perfect trip under Paco Lopez and walked with it. Paid a huge $8.80 and I would cash for $22 on the minimum bet. But a little later I checked my wagering statement for the day and noticed that at 1:48 pm I'd made my bet. Then I don't know / don't remember what I must have been doing to be distracted, but apparently at 2:01 pm I made the bet again! WHAT???!!!! So I'm cashing for $44 and not $22, sweet!
Whoooo hoooo. The sixth was my BET of the Day and I thought it was a piece of good handicapping. Remember I won with Septemberten on Friday? Out of what looked to be a KEY race? Well check out my analysis below.....
Sat just off the pace to the far turn, engaged the leader, dueled briefly then opened up to win going away. I missed on the last four, but I had a nice price payoff, and a double one at that AND hit with my BEST of the Day. A good day to top off a good week of handicapping!
Next week is Louisiana Derby Week - should be in New Orleans, but instead I'll be playing again from the Sunrise Simulcast Center!
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