March 18 - 22
It was another "interesting" week as the coronavirus (Covid-19) continues to be an international pandemic, but fortunately the racing world continues via the wonder of the Internet and the TVG network which adapted late in the week by having most of their on-air hosts broadcasting from their homes. As I've said to Kim a few times I'm so thankful that the racing continues for my personal entertainment, but even if I wasn't a fan it simply wouldn't make sense to close down the racing. Regardless of if there is or is not racing in the afternoon, EVERYONE that would be at the facility will be there for the care of the thoroughbreds. And with "fan-less" racing but participation through online wagering sites the game can go on.
I've often said that one of the greatest thing about thoroughbred racing, for me, is that every day and I mean EVERY DAY there's always a story to be told. And this week was full of great ones. But without a doubt one of the very best stories came on Wednesday. In mid-morning I posted the above photo of the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" on Facebook announcing I'd be "at the races" today. I decided that I would watch the racing today on the TVG national broadcast just for something different and to have more interaction so to speak with the national racing world. Shortly before the racing began the studio host Scott Hazelton said, "One of the things I like to do, all the time but particularly as everyone is watching from home, is....I'd like to ask our viewers to send in a picture from their living room to see how you are following us here today on TVG. I immediately thought of the picture I'd already posted on FaceBook and thought I should send it in. And I also thought that I probably would be mentioned at some point during the broadcast. So I tweeted the pic to Hazelton's account and said I was thankful to TVG for bringing some "normalcy" to the world. Within five minutes Hazelton circled back to his request and said he wanted to thank "mallan56racing" for his picture and then they spent several minutes commenting about how cool my set up was, talking about the photos on the walls, how expensive the frames were, and even noting the Mickey mouse glove." It was an amazing and cool thing to experience bringing a big smile to my face. I rewound the program and videoed the segment, then uploaded it to YouTube and shared it with several close friends. Within the hour Hazelton and TVG had posted the picture to their Twitter accounts and then a little later TVG posted the entire video clip. Notably, they showed several other photos throughout the afternoon from other viewers but NO ONE got their video clip posted like I did. And throughout the rest of the day I gained several new "followers" to my twitter account including the TVG network and several of the on-air hosts/handicappers. Just a really cool way to start the week. You can see the video clip on the weekly highlight video at the bottom of this post.
Wednesday March 18
The first day of racing this week saw me with six selections on the day. Four of them saw my pick run off the board, which as a side-note was a "theme" to the week. By in large I either won (which I DID at a big clip) or I completely missed. The first of the winners today came in the fifth race, a starter optional claimer for turf sprinters going five and a half furlongs. As soon as I began scanning the past performances for the race I "knew" who the winner would be. Tiger Blood has just been on a tear throughout the meet and has been virtually unbeatable. But in his last start the connections tried to stretch him out to a two-turn one mile event. They said publicly before that race that they didn't know if he'd get the distance - I didn't think he would, and he didn't - but they said this was a good spot to try and if he could, it would give them a lot more options with him. So today he had somewhat "darkened form." But it was so very obvious to me that if you tossed that last one he was simply going to win. He had a 7-for-8 record at the distance, and was 6-for-8 over the local grass course. If you scanned his past performances over the last year he'd won seven of twelve starts. The five losses came (1) in the mile try last out - toss, (2) when 4th in a Claiming Crown Stakes behind the 3rd place finisher of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, (3) in a 6 1/2 furlong event at Kentucky Downs over it's unique and undulating course, (4) in the off-the-turf GP Turf Sprint Stakes on "Summit of Speed" Day, and (5) in a second level allowance ON THE MAIN track at Tampa. The seven wins....all at five furlongs, all in South Florida, and six of the seven coming in starter optional claiming events like today. Duh. But what was THE most amazing thing about the race before it started was that "all" the public handicappers did NOT pick Tiger Blood. They projected another in here would get to the front and that would do him in. I looked at his pp's and while it was true he usually made the lead and simply ran away, two of those seven wins came when he sat just off the pace then ran away. How do you not see that here today? Played out exactly as I envisioned it. The "popular" choice went to the front, Tiger Blood sat right outside him to the stretch, then powered by to win going away at better than even money. I'd tripled the bet as he was my "best" of the day.
The other win was my "upset special" for the day. It came in the "featured" ninth race, another turf sprint at five furlongs. And the first thing that caught my attention was that only ONE of the runners in here had won sprinting on the turf and that came months ago. AND this particular horse had been running on the dirt since. A wide-open event. I have often said that handicapping is like a tool box and no two races use the exact same tools so you have to take advantage of every one that "fits" the race. DRF analyst Mike Welsch, in my opinion, is a "good" handicapper but his opinion largely does not influence my selections. However one thing I've learned is that the one thing he REALLY knows are morning workouts. He is always the DRF correspondent for big races like the Kentucky Derby or the Breeders' Cup who is assigned to watch the works leading up to the races and report daily via video postings. So, when his comments refer to workouts THAT is something that I take seriously. In here he made Jakarta his BET of the Day. This five-year-old mare had won four of nine starts but had NEVER been on the grass. Today she was making her first start for Mike Maker and all the locals have just fawned over this angle despite the fact it's only producing winners at about a 15% clip. BUT, since moving to the Maker outfit, according to Welsch, she'd "been training extremely well" and her works as I interpreted them verified that. She would be on or close to the pace and at 6/1 in the program a viable upset candidate. Again, just as I thought it would go....broke sharply, was not pressured through a good but not too quick opening quarter. Opened up and never looked back. While we didn't get the 6/1 odds we did get a nice $6.80 payoff which led to nearly $35 in winnings to close out the day.
Thursday March 19
The second day of racing for the week saw me up the winning with three scores today, although two of them unfortunately came with the minimum plays. I will say that I pay a lot less attention to the ROI - or money returned - than I used to in determining my "success." It's clear, and always has been to me, that racing is an entertainment. You can't go to the movies, out to eat, shopping, travel, or anything else with your entertainment dollars and make a profit. So the fact that you CAN get some if not all your money back regularly is good enough for me. I've told Kim before that while my first preference is to have a high win percentage for the day AND make a nice profit, that if I had to choose, I'd rather be right than make money because I can't control how everyone bets, but I can control who I handicap and select to win. So to finish 3-for-7 today was a good thing in my book. The first win of the day is yet another example of how very interesting racing can be. It was a maiden claiming event going eight and a half furlongs on the turf. I have a "rule" that in maiden races if you have lost six times, I won't bet you....you're out of chances. But THE RULE of handicapping is that there "are no rules." And here was an example of this - Dillon Rocks was a fourteen time, yes 14x maiden. Ouch. Worse, he'd been the 9/5 favorite last time out and not only lost, but lost to TWO of today's rivals. But he was going first off the claim for Jane Cibelli and that was enough - as well as his steady Beyer figures - for the DRF's Marty McGee to make him the BET of the Day. I was not willing to go that far, but was willing to make a minimum play. Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite jockey Paco Lopez took him right to the front and that was the end of that as he won for fun without ever being really asked.
A second, two thirds, and a sixth place finish were the story of the afternoon until we reached the final two races on the card. And to be honest I was really surprised that two of these picks didn't win, just looked really solid. Go figure. The ninth was another where I thought I had an edge, but not enough to go more than the minimum play. As I noted, your opinion of the race went strictly through how you interpreted Flora Fantasy's last out "up in the nick of time win" off a two month layoff. On the one hand you could believe that this was a taxing effort off an extended break and it would lead to a regression today. On the other hand, last spring-summer she put together a three race cycle where she won twice and was third in a stakes with Beyer figures of 76-76-78. That last race 73 could be the tip of the iceberg and she COULD improve. Second off the claim for trainer Saffie Joseph with top rider Irad Ortiz up was good enough for me. Spinning out of the turn into the lane she was wide and looked beaten. But then in the clear she came flying down the middle of the track and inhaled the field inside the final two hundred yards and won going away.
The finale on the Thursday card provided the best price of the day. It was a non-winners of two lifetime for a $16K price tag going a mile on the turf. These kind of conditioned races are RARELY won by a horse who's been beaten in similar company. The preference is a horse making their first start in 2-lifetime company, even better if it's also the first time tagged. But on occasion a class dropper who's been beaten in 2L company provides enough of an edge for an investment. Such was the case here where everyone EXCEPT Mystical Moon had lost at this level or less last time out. 'Moon by contrast was dropping in class AND going third off the layoff, often a thoroughbred's top effort. I was very intrigued that last time out - remember, against better - she'd pressed a wicked :45.4 half mile split and was run down late by the 2/1 favorite, but no one else had got to her despite running way too fast during the internal part of the race. That kind of effort, or at a more reasonable pace, AND dropping in class would make her tough to beat I felt. Sure enough....patiently handled by jockey Julian Leparoux she stalked about two lengths off a moderate :47 and change half mile today. Made her move to challenge then edged clear to win by a bigger than it looked 3/4 of a length on the wire. Best of all she was a generous 2/1 and so I cashed for $30 to close the day.
Friday March 20: UH OH, Gulfstream's Closed!
Yes, that was the unnerving news I saw online by mid-morning....
By all indications this was simply a one-day "pause" but this could certainly disrupt my world! I was in the midst of handicapping the Saturday card and I stopped to consider, "should I just watch the races from the other tracks for entertainment value alone, or should I use the morning to handicap one or two racing cards to have some action?" I looked at the entries on the Brisnet web site and decided that I'd look at both the Tampa and Oaklawn cards. I didn't like the Fair Grounds where it appeared the races were all wide open. But it looked like Tampa would have some races where I could find an edge and I really liked that the Oaklawn feature could have been a graded stakes with the names in the entry box. The "bad news" continued after I'd handicapped the two cards as I had two big time bets - they'd be short-priced favorites, but they would win - BOTH scratch from the Tampa card. Sigh.....still, the first bet of the day at Tampa saw me bet on Michael Stidham's Dynaform on the turf. She'd run "ok" at the Fair Grounds, why ship here I wondered? If she ran to those La races she'd be really tough and the opposition was not anything to write home about. Made her move into the lane, dueled briefly and then drew off. In mid-stretch she'd slightly bumped it appeared with an inside challenger and that one's rider seemed to take up. Hmmmm, that could be a problem. Sure enough, the INQUIRY sigh went up. As I watched the head-on view I thought "I've seen a LOT worse, but I've also seen lesser DQ'd - shouldn't be taken down but you never know." The announcement.....Ladies and Gentlemen the stewards have dismissed the inquiry and claim of objection and the results stand official. Even better that she was 2/1 and I cashed for $30. And I came right back with my next play, the opener at Oaklawn and won again.
That was it until we got to the Oaklawn feature. Kim and I had decided to help the local economy by "eating out" via take-out and enjoying a restaurant-prepared meal out on our pool deck. So prior to the last four races in Arkansas we ordered dinner from Carabba's and then drove there to pick it up. It was brought right to our car, didn't even have to get out and then we enjoyed wine and dinner along the waterfront. Interesting - I thought that when I posted this to FaceBook we got over 40 hits via social media. Well, we're doing our part to show everyone we can be "normal" I thought. Since I'd been watching the races on TVG I simply recorded the programming while we went to pick up dinner and ate. So following our "dinner date" I played back the races. The selection in the feature today was Mia Mischief who was a millionaire winner of several graded stakes including the Grade 1 Humana Distaff on the Kentucky Derby Day undercard last spring. She'd come right back to win the listed Roxelana at Churchill over the highly regarded Covfefe who I never really liked, even when she won the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall. She'd then disappointed in three straight graded stakes before closing out her 2019 season with a win in the Dream Supreme at Churchill. Three items of "concern" today, especially as a short-priced favorite. First, of her four wins in 2019 three were at Churchill. Hmmmm. Second, she was coming off a layoff and obviously would have bigger targets ahead than this allowance event. And finally, she'd changed ownership. For me I countered all of these concerns with.....she'd kicked off 2019 off a layoff in an allowance race and won for fun; she'd done so HERE at Oaklawn and owned a 4/2-2-0 record locally; and finally while she had changed hands, the Stonestreet Stables are a big-name group and I wasn't concerned about them making any big changes to her, AND she had the same trainer - Steve Asmussen - and rider - Ricardo Santana - that she'd had all of 2019. No worries. Much the best I felt and made her the "Best" of the day on this "call an audible day" of racing. Sat a great trip in and behind horses, needed to find a seam but Santana patiently waited until as heads turned for home a big gap opened and he shot through. The front runner wouldn't go away for a good 16th of a mile, but when Mia Mischief found another gear she accelerated clear as MUCH the best. Closed the day down with a 3-for-9 afternoon, a standard 33% winning day.
Saturday March 21: Louisiana Derby Day
Ahhh, should have had beignets this morning before heading to the Fair Grounds to be on track for the Louisiana Derby but in comparison to most people's "troubles" this was a very minor inconvenience. I found it very ironic and to be honest it eased the disappointment of not being in New Orleans that with the huge racing day with multiple stakes races my lone two victories at the Fair Grounds came in Maiden Special races. But hey, they pay as much for a maiden claiming event on a Thursday afternoon as a Grade 1 event on a championship card, so I'll take the wins. The day started with a 4th place finish at a huge 13/1 in the Crescent City Derby at the Fair Grounds. As I told Kim afterwards I DID have the right horse as there looked to be multiple speed types and no one went to the front save one. My finisher ran well despite no pace pressure. Had a couple of other early speeds pressed him I really think I'd have had a good shot. As one of my favorite handicapping books once said, "good handicapping, just not a winner." In the second at the FG Dreamalildreamofu was widely drawn in post 13 for trainer Brad Cox but she clearly was the best filly in the race and she proved it running away by open lengths as the even money favorite. I knew I wouldn't be making any money on any of the next three oh-so-obvious favorites, but I was surprised when only one of them won. Philly Special, a Pletcher 3yo in for a maiden claiming tag was a disappointing third at 6/5; Steph'sugar was a standout in the Crescent City Oaks and didn't pick up her feet at all, seventh as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite. But I DID win with Time to Two Step in the second at Gulfstream. I almost passed the race because how often do you see a 2/5 program favorite? Rare indeed. Now add in it was in a maiden race...ok, no one who's not won a race should be LISTED at 2/5. ANd a maiden claiming race for a cheap $12.5K? Even worse. Then, you look at Time to Two Step's Beyer figures and they were NOT significantly better than what the rest of the field had run. BUT, in three of his four starts - ALL against triple the price tag - he'd had troubled trips. And I agreed with Mike Welsch when he commented he "just needs to get around the track cleanly to graduate with this bunch." Way, WAY too good for the competition. Made a whopping $2 profit on my double investment. But hey, it's all about the "W's" :)
Ran through a series of losses over the next hour and a half (2nd at 4/5, 8th at 17/1, 4th at 2/1, and 12th at 9/2). And to be fair, to me, my handicapping usually lands me on one of the top three choices - no surprise - and today I had multiple price plays. PROBABLY if it wasn't a big stakes day and/or I were handicapping more tracks today I might have picked but not bet on several of the runners I had today. But, I did....they count and didn't go without any chance. Finally got back into the winning circle in the fifth at Gulfstream. It was a claiming event going six furlongs and as I noted, a month ago 9yo French Quarter would have been odds-on just because he'd been claimed by trainer Saffie Joseph. But the barn seems to have cooled off. So I liked French Quarter in here, but not enough to make it an "added investment." Pressed the leaders through the far turn in between horses, put the other front-runners away and then held on to win.
Not a big payoff, but again, a win is a win. Right back in the seventh at the Fair Grounds with what may just be a Kentucky Derby horse now that the big race will be held the first Saturday in September. In his debut, 3yo Mystic Guide was sent off as the 9/5 favorite. I looked it up and trainer Michael Stidham is only 13% with first time starters. So not a big surprise that this guy finished third. But note....as a son of Ghostzapper, a Breeders' Cup Classic champion, you have to believe that Mystic Guide would be much more effective going two turns than going the six furlong distance of his debut. Then you check the trouble comment, "....awkward start, 3-5 wide, 7-wide at the quarter pole...." and in spite of this, and running at the "wrong" distance he was third, beaten only a length and a quarter. Add in to the stretch to a mile and a sixteenth today that Stidham is 24% with second time starters, nearly double the win rate, and he's the pick. After he ran away as MUCH the best Todd Schrupp mentioned that if you'd looked at his picks online THIS was his national Bet of the Day. Paid a "fair" even money considering he was that highly considered, and again, I'll take the win to add to the growing total for today.
Then we came to what became "THE STORY" of the day. If you follow my racing adventures you know that last Sunday my BEST of the Day was a horse who'd run 2nd in a KEY race in late February. My opinion that day had been boosted by the fact that the third place horse from that KEY race had won on Friday. Fast forward to today. This was a Maiden Special event, like that Feb 27 race and there appeared to be two VERY likely win candidates. On the one hand there was Freedom Force who was listed as the 8/5 favorite. He'd made his debut the day AFTER that KEY race but had the misfortune to run into a Todd Pletcher odds-on winner who'd drawn off by nearly nine lengths. And Freedom Force was nearly a half dozen clear of the show runner AND had fired two bullets for today's return to the races. Uh oh. But inside of him was Quick Step Ed. He'd run fifth in that KEY race, but that was his fifth start. Hmmmm, conflicting evidence. AND he was listed at 4/1 odds. I rated the two of them fairly evenly and while I listed 'Ed as the top choice I knew in my mind it would be a "post time decision." As the betting unfolded Freedom Force was being pounded in the win pools and in the multi-race wagers. What to do. Then I noticed on the "program view" of the race on xpressbet.com that Freedom Force had a rider change from apprentice Cristian Torres, one of the leading riders with 57 wins to journeyman Chris Landeros. Again, if you've followed my journals you should recognize this name.....
Uh oh. That CAN'T be a good rider switch. I've mentioned him several times, and I've tried to keep in mind he's a good rider, normally. I have to admit that when I saw his name the first thing that popped into my head was MAYBE he'd been given the mount because this was such a solid favorite. But when I considered 101 losses in a row AND that the barn was only 12% with second time maidens I stuck with the original bet. Quick Step Ed pressed the pace to the top of the lane, was a bit wide and lost a position then ran by the leaders to score. And his price was a very generous $8.80 meaning I was cashing for ALMOST $45. GREAT HANDICAPPING if I do say so myself!
I was a nose away from winning my first (and would would have been only) stakes race at the Fair Grounds when Chad Brown's filly Altea was second. Her 17/2-6-4 resume prior to the race proved to be the key, close but no cigar. The seventh at Gulfstream was an entry level allowance with a pretty nondescript field. Looked to pass but then noted that BOTH Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti and DRF analyst Mike Welsch picked the lightly raced, last-out maiden winner Golden Tapit to win. Considering the competition, that he was lightly raced and earned a HUGE 90 Beyer in his first grass try I jumped onboard. Looked out of it when wide into the stretch but then he absolutely blew by without being asked and maybe, just maybe he might have some real talent.
Lost back-to-back Grade 2 events - sixth in both - at the Fair Grounds before scoring in the co-featured Melody of Colors Stakes at Gulfstream. Hear My Prayer was a perfect 2-for-2 in turf sprints and looked ultra quick. She'd tried two turns in her last and couldn't handle the distance. If away cleanly she was gone. AND jockey Paco Lopez was working on a 4-win day. Hot rider, fastest horse, duh. Wired them in hand to give Paco win number five - he went on to notch SEVEN for the day. WOW.
Missed with a virtual "sure thing" in the Gr 2 FG Oaks when Finite didn't even hit the board at 1/5 and then off the board in the last three. But for the day, a solid 7-for-21. I'll take it.
Sunday March 22: The BIG Day
Again, one of the many things I love about thoroughbred racing is you just NEVER know when you're going to have a big day. Could be on a big event day like Florida Derby Day, or just a Sunday afternoon without a single stakes race on the card. I considered looking at a few other tracks for today, but in the end I thought I'd just stick with the routine and play the Gulfstream card. I had eight picks on the day and so I knew I'd be fairly entertained all afternoon. I didn't have a lot of confidence in my pick in the opener and she didn't run well, 9th at even money. YIKES, not the way I wanted to start the day. I had a real dilemma in the second. The OBVIOUS favorite was Just One Day in this maiden five furlong turf sprint. And Joel Rosario apparently was in to ride today. But, on the rail was Groundbreaking who'd run in that same Feb 27 KEY race. But that was on the dirt, at a mile. What to do. Made it more difficult when the races for Saturday produced yet another winner from that key event. But I had Just One Day who was JUST up to win as a short-priced favorite. But, like yesterday, it still counts as another "W."
The fourth looked to be another one of "those" Gulfstream 3yo maiden races with several potentially talented fillies going a one-turn mile. As I often do, I dug deeper into the rivals Pleasant Orb had run against in her previous two starts. She was more than a dozen behind the winner in her Ellis Park debut last summer, but the winner had come back to run 3rd in the Grade 2 Pocohontas and then 4th in the Silverbulletday at the Fair Grounds. Off the long layoff 'Orb had dueled on the lead before finally giving way to finish second, some four plus clear of the field. Trainer Barclay Tagg didn't have the kind of trainer stats in any of the pertinent categories but I know he's an excellent horseman and this looked to be a talented filly. She moved on the turn from mid-pack and swooped up to catch the leader. But the pace had been slow and they dueled to deep stretch before Pleasant Orb began to inch away. And she was my "best" of the day. Two wins, whooooo hoooooo.
Then came THE STORY of the day and the week, one of the best of the winter as it turned out. The fifth was a starter optional claiming event for three-year-olds on the turf, going a mile. First, I've found claiming (or starter claiming) events for sophomores at this time of the year hard to predict - they are still trying to find the "right" level. Second, these were all lightly raced with but a single win to their credit. But after I ran through the past performances it just seemed, oh-so-obvious to me. There were nine starters in the field, one of them a "main track only." Seven of the eight entered for the turf had ALL broken their maidens for a price tag between $12.5K and $25K. So they all fit the conditions of the race, "....for 3yo who have raced for $25K or less, or for a claiming tag of $25K...." And three of these seven had NEVER been on the turf. Another had one start, but lost. Then there was a one-win on the turf and a dual winner on the turf, the favorite that EVERYBODY liked. King of Ranch was 2-for-5 and was going second off the claim for Mike Maker today. But as I pointed out in my analysis, everyone seems to just be enamored with Maker first-off-the-claim move despite producing only a lowly 15% wins. And sure enough, he'd been the 6/5 favorite and lost for a straight $30-$25K tag. I didn't like him at all. So that brings us to the "other" colt in the field, Dominate Themoment. While the others had won for $25K or less in their maiden breaker he had won for $50K - AND on the turf! But he was DQ'd. Came right back for $50K again, and won again. Then he ran in the Dania Beach Stakes taking on winners for the first time. Early speed and then faded. Then last time out he was entered in a straight $50K event. Again, early speed and faded. Now today he was spotted in this event and since he'd NEVER run for $25K or less he had to run for the requisite claiming tag. With the rest of the field all unproven and only having won vs. $25K or less and Dominate Themoment having "won" TWICE for $50K I thought he was just a "DUH" kind of pick. Listed at 6/1 in the program I was nearly certain he'd never go off at that price. And he picked up top notch rider Joel Rosario today. Pressed the pace to the far turn, made a sweeping move to the front and ran away by daylight! And I was right about the price and my closing comment on the race where I said, and I quote, ".....either I've got a hidden gem or I'm just way off....." Went off at a gi-normous 8/1 and paid $18.00 for a $2 bet. And good-for-me, I doubled the bet so I was collecting $90! WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!
Missed on the next two but hardly gave it a thought in the afterglow of the big score. Only nine races on the card today - that's a bit disconcerting, what's that all about? But in the "featured" eighth it was an entry level allowance going the marathon distance of a mile and a half. I thought the field was pretty evenly matched, but I did think that Tom Albertrani's Dyna Passer was clearly the one to beat. As I said in my analysis, you had to decide if his 10/1-4-4 record was indicative of a horse who didn't want to win or had he been in over his head? Her Beyers in six starts since racing beyond 9 furlongs all between 80 and 85 would win here comfortably, so I took the latter approach, but was only going in for the minimum. When Jason Blewitt's Late Pick-5 ticket was shared online he SINGLED Dyna Passer. Hmmmm. And checking the multi-race payoffs he was a CLEAR favorite. I upped the bet. He tracked the pace from a close-up third, moved into the stretch, dueled to inside the final 100 yards then edged clear....my FOURTH winner on the day.
Closed out Sunday four-for-eight with over $80 in profits. YOWZA. And for the week I'd cashed on almost 40% of my selections. It was a VERY good week. Next week is the Florida Derby. Disappointed that we won't be in the stands for the first time in a dozen years, but at least I can still play the races online.
Check out the highlight video....remember it has the TVG feature on my "Simulcast Center" :) Also has a video I got from Twitter where one of the trainers at Gulfstream filmed the ghost-like empty stands as hottie Acacia Courtney gave her analysis. Weird.
Thursday March 19
The second day of racing for the week saw me up the winning with three scores today, although two of them unfortunately came with the minimum plays. I will say that I pay a lot less attention to the ROI - or money returned - than I used to in determining my "success." It's clear, and always has been to me, that racing is an entertainment. You can't go to the movies, out to eat, shopping, travel, or anything else with your entertainment dollars and make a profit. So the fact that you CAN get some if not all your money back regularly is good enough for me. I've told Kim before that while my first preference is to have a high win percentage for the day AND make a nice profit, that if I had to choose, I'd rather be right than make money because I can't control how everyone bets, but I can control who I handicap and select to win. So to finish 3-for-7 today was a good thing in my book. The first win of the day is yet another example of how very interesting racing can be. It was a maiden claiming event going eight and a half furlongs on the turf. I have a "rule" that in maiden races if you have lost six times, I won't bet you....you're out of chances. But THE RULE of handicapping is that there "are no rules." And here was an example of this - Dillon Rocks was a fourteen time, yes 14x maiden. Ouch. Worse, he'd been the 9/5 favorite last time out and not only lost, but lost to TWO of today's rivals. But he was going first off the claim for Jane Cibelli and that was enough - as well as his steady Beyer figures - for the DRF's Marty McGee to make him the BET of the Day. I was not willing to go that far, but was willing to make a minimum play. Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite jockey Paco Lopez took him right to the front and that was the end of that as he won for fun without ever being really asked.
A second, two thirds, and a sixth place finish were the story of the afternoon until we reached the final two races on the card. And to be honest I was really surprised that two of these picks didn't win, just looked really solid. Go figure. The ninth was another where I thought I had an edge, but not enough to go more than the minimum play. As I noted, your opinion of the race went strictly through how you interpreted Flora Fantasy's last out "up in the nick of time win" off a two month layoff. On the one hand you could believe that this was a taxing effort off an extended break and it would lead to a regression today. On the other hand, last spring-summer she put together a three race cycle where she won twice and was third in a stakes with Beyer figures of 76-76-78. That last race 73 could be the tip of the iceberg and she COULD improve. Second off the claim for trainer Saffie Joseph with top rider Irad Ortiz up was good enough for me. Spinning out of the turn into the lane she was wide and looked beaten. But then in the clear she came flying down the middle of the track and inhaled the field inside the final two hundred yards and won going away.
The finale on the Thursday card provided the best price of the day. It was a non-winners of two lifetime for a $16K price tag going a mile on the turf. These kind of conditioned races are RARELY won by a horse who's been beaten in similar company. The preference is a horse making their first start in 2-lifetime company, even better if it's also the first time tagged. But on occasion a class dropper who's been beaten in 2L company provides enough of an edge for an investment. Such was the case here where everyone EXCEPT Mystical Moon had lost at this level or less last time out. 'Moon by contrast was dropping in class AND going third off the layoff, often a thoroughbred's top effort. I was very intrigued that last time out - remember, against better - she'd pressed a wicked :45.4 half mile split and was run down late by the 2/1 favorite, but no one else had got to her despite running way too fast during the internal part of the race. That kind of effort, or at a more reasonable pace, AND dropping in class would make her tough to beat I felt. Sure enough....patiently handled by jockey Julian Leparoux she stalked about two lengths off a moderate :47 and change half mile today. Made her move to challenge then edged clear to win by a bigger than it looked 3/4 of a length on the wire. Best of all she was a generous 2/1 and so I cashed for $30 to close the day.
Friday March 20: UH OH, Gulfstream's Closed!
Yes, that was the unnerving news I saw online by mid-morning....
By all indications this was simply a one-day "pause" but this could certainly disrupt my world! I was in the midst of handicapping the Saturday card and I stopped to consider, "should I just watch the races from the other tracks for entertainment value alone, or should I use the morning to handicap one or two racing cards to have some action?" I looked at the entries on the Brisnet web site and decided that I'd look at both the Tampa and Oaklawn cards. I didn't like the Fair Grounds where it appeared the races were all wide open. But it looked like Tampa would have some races where I could find an edge and I really liked that the Oaklawn feature could have been a graded stakes with the names in the entry box. The "bad news" continued after I'd handicapped the two cards as I had two big time bets - they'd be short-priced favorites, but they would win - BOTH scratch from the Tampa card. Sigh.....still, the first bet of the day at Tampa saw me bet on Michael Stidham's Dynaform on the turf. She'd run "ok" at the Fair Grounds, why ship here I wondered? If she ran to those La races she'd be really tough and the opposition was not anything to write home about. Made her move into the lane, dueled briefly and then drew off. In mid-stretch she'd slightly bumped it appeared with an inside challenger and that one's rider seemed to take up. Hmmmm, that could be a problem. Sure enough, the INQUIRY sigh went up. As I watched the head-on view I thought "I've seen a LOT worse, but I've also seen lesser DQ'd - shouldn't be taken down but you never know." The announcement.....Ladies and Gentlemen the stewards have dismissed the inquiry and claim of objection and the results stand official. Even better that she was 2/1 and I cashed for $30. And I came right back with my next play, the opener at Oaklawn and won again.
That was it until we got to the Oaklawn feature. Kim and I had decided to help the local economy by "eating out" via take-out and enjoying a restaurant-prepared meal out on our pool deck. So prior to the last four races in Arkansas we ordered dinner from Carabba's and then drove there to pick it up. It was brought right to our car, didn't even have to get out and then we enjoyed wine and dinner along the waterfront. Interesting - I thought that when I posted this to FaceBook we got over 40 hits via social media. Well, we're doing our part to show everyone we can be "normal" I thought. Since I'd been watching the races on TVG I simply recorded the programming while we went to pick up dinner and ate. So following our "dinner date" I played back the races. The selection in the feature today was Mia Mischief who was a millionaire winner of several graded stakes including the Grade 1 Humana Distaff on the Kentucky Derby Day undercard last spring. She'd come right back to win the listed Roxelana at Churchill over the highly regarded Covfefe who I never really liked, even when she won the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall. She'd then disappointed in three straight graded stakes before closing out her 2019 season with a win in the Dream Supreme at Churchill. Three items of "concern" today, especially as a short-priced favorite. First, of her four wins in 2019 three were at Churchill. Hmmmm. Second, she was coming off a layoff and obviously would have bigger targets ahead than this allowance event. And finally, she'd changed ownership. For me I countered all of these concerns with.....she'd kicked off 2019 off a layoff in an allowance race and won for fun; she'd done so HERE at Oaklawn and owned a 4/2-2-0 record locally; and finally while she had changed hands, the Stonestreet Stables are a big-name group and I wasn't concerned about them making any big changes to her, AND she had the same trainer - Steve Asmussen - and rider - Ricardo Santana - that she'd had all of 2019. No worries. Much the best I felt and made her the "Best" of the day on this "call an audible day" of racing. Sat a great trip in and behind horses, needed to find a seam but Santana patiently waited until as heads turned for home a big gap opened and he shot through. The front runner wouldn't go away for a good 16th of a mile, but when Mia Mischief found another gear she accelerated clear as MUCH the best. Closed the day down with a 3-for-9 afternoon, a standard 33% winning day.Saturday March 21: Louisiana Derby Day
Ahhh, should have had beignets this morning before heading to the Fair Grounds to be on track for the Louisiana Derby but in comparison to most people's "troubles" this was a very minor inconvenience. I found it very ironic and to be honest it eased the disappointment of not being in New Orleans that with the huge racing day with multiple stakes races my lone two victories at the Fair Grounds came in Maiden Special races. But hey, they pay as much for a maiden claiming event on a Thursday afternoon as a Grade 1 event on a championship card, so I'll take the wins. The day started with a 4th place finish at a huge 13/1 in the Crescent City Derby at the Fair Grounds. As I told Kim afterwards I DID have the right horse as there looked to be multiple speed types and no one went to the front save one. My finisher ran well despite no pace pressure. Had a couple of other early speeds pressed him I really think I'd have had a good shot. As one of my favorite handicapping books once said, "good handicapping, just not a winner." In the second at the FG Dreamalildreamofu was widely drawn in post 13 for trainer Brad Cox but she clearly was the best filly in the race and she proved it running away by open lengths as the even money favorite. I knew I wouldn't be making any money on any of the next three oh-so-obvious favorites, but I was surprised when only one of them won. Philly Special, a Pletcher 3yo in for a maiden claiming tag was a disappointing third at 6/5; Steph'sugar was a standout in the Crescent City Oaks and didn't pick up her feet at all, seventh as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite. But I DID win with Time to Two Step in the second at Gulfstream. I almost passed the race because how often do you see a 2/5 program favorite? Rare indeed. Now add in it was in a maiden race...ok, no one who's not won a race should be LISTED at 2/5. ANd a maiden claiming race for a cheap $12.5K? Even worse. Then, you look at Time to Two Step's Beyer figures and they were NOT significantly better than what the rest of the field had run. BUT, in three of his four starts - ALL against triple the price tag - he'd had troubled trips. And I agreed with Mike Welsch when he commented he "just needs to get around the track cleanly to graduate with this bunch." Way, WAY too good for the competition. Made a whopping $2 profit on my double investment. But hey, it's all about the "W's" :)
Ran through a series of losses over the next hour and a half (2nd at 4/5, 8th at 17/1, 4th at 2/1, and 12th at 9/2). And to be fair, to me, my handicapping usually lands me on one of the top three choices - no surprise - and today I had multiple price plays. PROBABLY if it wasn't a big stakes day and/or I were handicapping more tracks today I might have picked but not bet on several of the runners I had today. But, I did....they count and didn't go without any chance. Finally got back into the winning circle in the fifth at Gulfstream. It was a claiming event going six furlongs and as I noted, a month ago 9yo French Quarter would have been odds-on just because he'd been claimed by trainer Saffie Joseph. But the barn seems to have cooled off. So I liked French Quarter in here, but not enough to make it an "added investment." Pressed the leaders through the far turn in between horses, put the other front-runners away and then held on to win.
Not a big payoff, but again, a win is a win. Right back in the seventh at the Fair Grounds with what may just be a Kentucky Derby horse now that the big race will be held the first Saturday in September. In his debut, 3yo Mystic Guide was sent off as the 9/5 favorite. I looked it up and trainer Michael Stidham is only 13% with first time starters. So not a big surprise that this guy finished third. But note....as a son of Ghostzapper, a Breeders' Cup Classic champion, you have to believe that Mystic Guide would be much more effective going two turns than going the six furlong distance of his debut. Then you check the trouble comment, "....awkward start, 3-5 wide, 7-wide at the quarter pole...." and in spite of this, and running at the "wrong" distance he was third, beaten only a length and a quarter. Add in to the stretch to a mile and a sixteenth today that Stidham is 24% with second time starters, nearly double the win rate, and he's the pick. After he ran away as MUCH the best Todd Schrupp mentioned that if you'd looked at his picks online THIS was his national Bet of the Day. Paid a "fair" even money considering he was that highly considered, and again, I'll take the win to add to the growing total for today.
Then we came to what became "THE STORY" of the day. If you follow my racing adventures you know that last Sunday my BEST of the Day was a horse who'd run 2nd in a KEY race in late February. My opinion that day had been boosted by the fact that the third place horse from that KEY race had won on Friday. Fast forward to today. This was a Maiden Special event, like that Feb 27 race and there appeared to be two VERY likely win candidates. On the one hand there was Freedom Force who was listed as the 8/5 favorite. He'd made his debut the day AFTER that KEY race but had the misfortune to run into a Todd Pletcher odds-on winner who'd drawn off by nearly nine lengths. And Freedom Force was nearly a half dozen clear of the show runner AND had fired two bullets for today's return to the races. Uh oh. But inside of him was Quick Step Ed. He'd run fifth in that KEY race, but that was his fifth start. Hmmmm, conflicting evidence. AND he was listed at 4/1 odds. I rated the two of them fairly evenly and while I listed 'Ed as the top choice I knew in my mind it would be a "post time decision." As the betting unfolded Freedom Force was being pounded in the win pools and in the multi-race wagers. What to do. Then I noticed on the "program view" of the race on xpressbet.com that Freedom Force had a rider change from apprentice Cristian Torres, one of the leading riders with 57 wins to journeyman Chris Landeros. Again, if you've followed my journals you should recognize this name.....
Uh oh. That CAN'T be a good rider switch. I've mentioned him several times, and I've tried to keep in mind he's a good rider, normally. I have to admit that when I saw his name the first thing that popped into my head was MAYBE he'd been given the mount because this was such a solid favorite. But when I considered 101 losses in a row AND that the barn was only 12% with second time maidens I stuck with the original bet. Quick Step Ed pressed the pace to the top of the lane, was a bit wide and lost a position then ran by the leaders to score. And his price was a very generous $8.80 meaning I was cashing for ALMOST $45. GREAT HANDICAPPING if I do say so myself!
I was a nose away from winning my first (and would would have been only) stakes race at the Fair Grounds when Chad Brown's filly Altea was second. Her 17/2-6-4 resume prior to the race proved to be the key, close but no cigar. The seventh at Gulfstream was an entry level allowance with a pretty nondescript field. Looked to pass but then noted that BOTH Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti and DRF analyst Mike Welsch picked the lightly raced, last-out maiden winner Golden Tapit to win. Considering the competition, that he was lightly raced and earned a HUGE 90 Beyer in his first grass try I jumped onboard. Looked out of it when wide into the stretch but then he absolutely blew by without being asked and maybe, just maybe he might have some real talent.
Lost back-to-back Grade 2 events - sixth in both - at the Fair Grounds before scoring in the co-featured Melody of Colors Stakes at Gulfstream. Hear My Prayer was a perfect 2-for-2 in turf sprints and looked ultra quick. She'd tried two turns in her last and couldn't handle the distance. If away cleanly she was gone. AND jockey Paco Lopez was working on a 4-win day. Hot rider, fastest horse, duh. Wired them in hand to give Paco win number five - he went on to notch SEVEN for the day. WOW.
Missed with a virtual "sure thing" in the Gr 2 FG Oaks when Finite didn't even hit the board at 1/5 and then off the board in the last three. But for the day, a solid 7-for-21. I'll take it.
Sunday March 22: The BIG Day
Again, one of the many things I love about thoroughbred racing is you just NEVER know when you're going to have a big day. Could be on a big event day like Florida Derby Day, or just a Sunday afternoon without a single stakes race on the card. I considered looking at a few other tracks for today, but in the end I thought I'd just stick with the routine and play the Gulfstream card. I had eight picks on the day and so I knew I'd be fairly entertained all afternoon. I didn't have a lot of confidence in my pick in the opener and she didn't run well, 9th at even money. YIKES, not the way I wanted to start the day. I had a real dilemma in the second. The OBVIOUS favorite was Just One Day in this maiden five furlong turf sprint. And Joel Rosario apparently was in to ride today. But, on the rail was Groundbreaking who'd run in that same Feb 27 KEY race. But that was on the dirt, at a mile. What to do. Made it more difficult when the races for Saturday produced yet another winner from that key event. But I had Just One Day who was JUST up to win as a short-priced favorite. But, like yesterday, it still counts as another "W."
The fourth looked to be another one of "those" Gulfstream 3yo maiden races with several potentially talented fillies going a one-turn mile. As I often do, I dug deeper into the rivals Pleasant Orb had run against in her previous two starts. She was more than a dozen behind the winner in her Ellis Park debut last summer, but the winner had come back to run 3rd in the Grade 2 Pocohontas and then 4th in the Silverbulletday at the Fair Grounds. Off the long layoff 'Orb had dueled on the lead before finally giving way to finish second, some four plus clear of the field. Trainer Barclay Tagg didn't have the kind of trainer stats in any of the pertinent categories but I know he's an excellent horseman and this looked to be a talented filly. She moved on the turn from mid-pack and swooped up to catch the leader. But the pace had been slow and they dueled to deep stretch before Pleasant Orb began to inch away. And she was my "best" of the day. Two wins, whooooo hoooooo.
Then came THE STORY of the day and the week, one of the best of the winter as it turned out. The fifth was a starter optional claiming event for three-year-olds on the turf, going a mile. First, I've found claiming (or starter claiming) events for sophomores at this time of the year hard to predict - they are still trying to find the "right" level. Second, these were all lightly raced with but a single win to their credit. But after I ran through the past performances it just seemed, oh-so-obvious to me. There were nine starters in the field, one of them a "main track only." Seven of the eight entered for the turf had ALL broken their maidens for a price tag between $12.5K and $25K. So they all fit the conditions of the race, "....for 3yo who have raced for $25K or less, or for a claiming tag of $25K...." And three of these seven had NEVER been on the turf. Another had one start, but lost. Then there was a one-win on the turf and a dual winner on the turf, the favorite that EVERYBODY liked. King of Ranch was 2-for-5 and was going second off the claim for Mike Maker today. But as I pointed out in my analysis, everyone seems to just be enamored with Maker first-off-the-claim move despite producing only a lowly 15% wins. And sure enough, he'd been the 6/5 favorite and lost for a straight $30-$25K tag. I didn't like him at all. So that brings us to the "other" colt in the field, Dominate Themoment. While the others had won for $25K or less in their maiden breaker he had won for $50K - AND on the turf! But he was DQ'd. Came right back for $50K again, and won again. Then he ran in the Dania Beach Stakes taking on winners for the first time. Early speed and then faded. Then last time out he was entered in a straight $50K event. Again, early speed and faded. Now today he was spotted in this event and since he'd NEVER run for $25K or less he had to run for the requisite claiming tag. With the rest of the field all unproven and only having won vs. $25K or less and Dominate Themoment having "won" TWICE for $50K I thought he was just a "DUH" kind of pick. Listed at 6/1 in the program I was nearly certain he'd never go off at that price. And he picked up top notch rider Joel Rosario today. Pressed the pace to the far turn, made a sweeping move to the front and ran away by daylight! And I was right about the price and my closing comment on the race where I said, and I quote, ".....either I've got a hidden gem or I'm just way off....." Went off at a gi-normous 8/1 and paid $18.00 for a $2 bet. And good-for-me, I doubled the bet so I was collecting $90! WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!
Missed on the next two but hardly gave it a thought in the afterglow of the big score. Only nine races on the card today - that's a bit disconcerting, what's that all about? But in the "featured" eighth it was an entry level allowance going the marathon distance of a mile and a half. I thought the field was pretty evenly matched, but I did think that Tom Albertrani's Dyna Passer was clearly the one to beat. As I said in my analysis, you had to decide if his 10/1-4-4 record was indicative of a horse who didn't want to win or had he been in over his head? Her Beyers in six starts since racing beyond 9 furlongs all between 80 and 85 would win here comfortably, so I took the latter approach, but was only going in for the minimum. When Jason Blewitt's Late Pick-5 ticket was shared online he SINGLED Dyna Passer. Hmmmm. And checking the multi-race payoffs he was a CLEAR favorite. I upped the bet. He tracked the pace from a close-up third, moved into the stretch, dueled to inside the final 100 yards then edged clear....my FOURTH winner on the day.
Closed out Sunday four-for-eight with over $80 in profits. YOWZA. And for the week I'd cashed on almost 40% of my selections. It was a VERY good week. Next week is the Florida Derby. Disappointed that we won't be in the stands for the first time in a dozen years, but at least I can still play the races online.
Check out the highlight video....remember it has the TVG feature on my "Simulcast Center" :) Also has a video I got from Twitter where one of the trainers at Gulfstream filmed the ghost-like empty stands as hottie Acacia Courtney gave her analysis. Weird.
Louisiana Derby Week Highlights
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