It's All A Trade-Off
March 4 - 8
As I said to my buddy Keith on Sunday, if the "Racing Gods" deemed it a trade-off that I'd have to give up some of my winners on Saturday to meet with my "date" Kimmy for dinner following the day's racing action, then I would gladly do so and consider myself a winner for the day. She is and has been for many years my most-favorite former student and I now can count her as a close friend, or gal-pal. The week was not without it's big racing highlights however, and here's how the week unfolded for me.
NOTE: Sooooo many of the races during the week proper were exciting and/or memorable that I've created a highlight reel for the Wed-Sun races, excluding the Saturday highlights which have their own highlight video.
NOTE: Sooooo many of the races during the week proper were exciting and/or memorable that I've created a highlight reel for the Wed-Sun races, excluding the Saturday highlights which have their own highlight video.
Wednesday March 8
The first day of racing in the final month of the Championship Meet (boooo) began with Kim leaving town for Orlando and on to Englewood with her Mom and sister for our daughter's bridal shower. For this afternoon's card I had five selections. Didn't hit the board with either of the first two selections but in the fifth we were on the turf for a maiden special event for sophomores going a mile. I had minor reservations about Proven Strategies from the Mark Casse barn, but what was the overriding angle for me was that he'd been in front turning for home in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at 100/1 odds! Granted he faded, but was only beaten two lengths. He'd also been competitive in two other stakes. Now in with maidens again I thought he was good enough to warrant being my "best" of the day. Jockey Tyler Gafflione had him perched just off the 30/1 longshot leader to the far turn then glided up to take command. Opened up and scored convincingly under mild hand urging. Cashed for nearly $35!
Came right back to score with my next selection, in the seventh on Sultry Samurai in a 2-lifetime event. I wanted to put more than the minimum on this guy but in his most recent, when going first off the claim for Jorge Navarro he'd gone down in flames in a similar two-lifetime at 1/5 odds, ouch. But as I noted, to be fair he had broken behind the field and was fanned six-wide into the stretch. Any kind of smooth trip should get him home first I felt. And he did have the right trip, drawing off comfortably through the final furlong.
Finished the day with another off-the-board finish to be 2-for-5 for the day.
Thursday March 5
Today's ten race program again only provided five selections for me. Two thirds and a fourth kicked off the afternoon after passing the first, second, and fourth. A lot of sitting watching races with minimal interest. But to be fair I was spending a lot of time on the computer handicapping for Saturday's races. In the seventh I wavered on how to handle Fiber Optic who was probably going to go favored in this non-winners of three lifetime turf sprint. On the one hand, her last race figure would require a career best by her rivals today to beat. And considering she was lightly raced, there was ample reason to believe she could move forward and run even better today. But on the downside, that win came over two-lifetime runners for this same price tag. So my concern was two-fold. First, moving up in class from two-to-three lifetime is not an insignificant hike. And even more of a concern was after that dominant win and sharp speed figure, why wouldn't trainer Ian Wilkes move her into an open event or up in price? Or was he spotting her nicely for another win? I made the original selection for a double investment and thought I'd watch the board when the race came up. Sure enough, she was being hammered in all the pools so I dove in by doubling my own double investment to make her a PRIME TIME play. She pressed the 9/1 front runner to the far turn, seized command and drove to the lead, edging clear by daylight through the final furlong.
Didn't make much money, but as I've said on many occasions it's more about how much confidence I had in my handicapping and backing it up with the same kind of bet that satisfies me. The last selection of the day and my second win HAS to go down as one of the most amazing races I've ever watched. In my analysis of this entry level allowance event for three-year-olds I began by asking the rhetorical question, "....just how good is Up In Smoke...." who had earned a big 76 Beyer in her debut last time out. It added to my confidence that she had some talent when reading the DRF's Marty McGee's report that she was using this allowance event as a bridge to a state-bred stakes try at Tampa at the end of the month. On the other hand, not only was she facing winners for the first time, but her last out maiden debut winning rider, top jockey at the meet Irad Ortiz had jumped off to ride the morning line favorite. So, like the Fiber Optic race I planned on a small bet hoping to get more insight as the race approached. All the Gulfstream analysts remarked about how professional Up In Smoke had looked and how promising a talent she looked to be. I looked at the pools and she was taking a LOT of money. So, I doubled the originally planned minimum bet. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was up and she broke in the first flight, but through the opening quarter he appeared to be having to work her pretty hard to keep up. But as they approached the far turn track announcer Pete Aiello called, "....Up In Smoke is dropping back through the field and is up in smoke...." Midway on the turn she'd dropped so far out of it that she wasn't even in the television screen. And as they turned for home it was another second before you could see here. But when I did, I could see that she seemed to have found new life. The camera focused on the leaders and then suddenly as the angle panned back here she came.....flying very wide down the lane. Not only won, but won going away and geared down. Just a WOW performance. Amazing.
For the day, like Wednesday, I was again 2-for-5, and I'll take that any time.
And just as a follow-up to the BC tickets....as of Monday lunch time, this was what you saw when you went to get tickets......YOWZA
Friday March 6
Probably I was less conservative about my selections today. If truth be told I "should" have had four picks on the day but made six. Won with two of them, so even a 33% day is a good day at the track, so I'm ok with that. Kicked off the day with a winner with the first bet of the day which came in the second race a maiden special event for three-year-olds and up (the first race of the meet open to both 3yo and older). This five-furlong turf dash looked to go strictly through Smack who had Beyers that were clearly, CLEARLY the best in the field. My "concern" was that she was already a seven time maiden AND she'd hit the board in all of them without winning. My "rule" is that once a runner has had six chances, that's it. But another "rule" I have is that in handicapping, there are no rules! I not only went with Smack, but doubled down on filly. She pressed the longshot front runner to the top of the far turn, dueled through the turn and got to the front turning for home. Tyler Gafflione asked her to put the field away and she kicked on as much the best.
A deserving favorite, and I was glad I'd gone in for two-times the minimum so I cashed for nearly twenty bucks. Missed on two maiden events after that before we arrived at the sixth, a claiming event going a mile and a sixteeth with a first line finish. I often wonder about why I don't get very many "good" prices on horses. Is it because I'm reluctant to wager unless they are really solid, or is it that I'm not seeing anything different than what others see, or is it just that bettors are better handicappers these days? If you look at my records I bet a fair share of price horses, just don't win with many. At any rate, in here I thought Starship Aramis was a standout IF you were willing to overlook his last. Two back he'd buried $12.5K runners then was moved into an entry level allowance. Over his head I determined, and he'd hit the gate as they started. I was willing to dismiss that race. I was rewarded when he went off at 2/1 odds. He broke right on top and held a clear advantage. But into the turn the 8/5 favorite came to him, got on even terms, and then put his head in front. That's nearly ALWAYS the "kiss of death" for a thoroughbred. But jockey Luis Saez is one of the most determined riders I have ever seen. No matter what, he won't give up on the race or the horse and he continued to urge 'Aramis to run. Mid-way through the lane he responded and edged clear late for a gutsy win. The $6.00 payoff netted me $30 :) Missed on the last two races of the day.
Saturday March 7: Tampa Bay Derby Day
I enjoyed the day very much, but didn't have nearly as many winners as I typically have, but as I said at the top if the fates made today a "choice" between having a great day at the races and not getting together with my gal-pal for a social event or getting together and sacrificing some wins, I'll gladly take the latter. And I told Kimmy so when we confirmed our "date" early in the afternoon that I considered myself a "winner" on the day since we would be seeing each other later. And I very easily could have "had it all" because of my thirty-six selections today, I ran first-or-second in TWENTY of them. Yes, twenty times....but ELEVEN of those were second place finishes. On a "normal" day I'll hit around 35% winners and today I had just 25%. Three of the eleven would have made me have a "typical" day. Look at the graphic below....three photo finishes that cost me not only the statistics on the day but also cost me at least $80 in winnings. In Gulfstream's third, Three Deep had run three races with Beyers that would take a career best from any of the rest to beat him...and his stablemate at a huge price nailed him on the wire. In the Grade 3 Challenger at Tampa, Todd Pletcher's King For A Day could claim to be the only thoroughbred to actually finish in front of Maximum Security, and he led into deep stretch, only to be caught on the head bob. And finally, in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita, multiple graded stakes winning filly Got Stormy was exiting a dull effort at Tampa but had worked sharply and SHOULD have easily beat this field. Jockey Tyler Gafflione followed the filly out west, in the process giving up the mount on one of the favorites in the Tampa Bay Derby. She tracked the leader in hand, glided to the lead and when asked to kick for home she tried hard, but lacked that lightning quick burst which had carried her to wins last year. To be fair she still WOULD have won if the eventual winner hadn't gotten a dream trip up the rail and gotten to her in the final strides. And these were all short-priced favorites. In Tampa's second multiple graded stakes winner Point of Honor got a mis-judged ride (too close early) from Javier Castellano and was 2nd at 3/5. Bob Baffert's highly regarded American Code was 3/5 in his debut and dueled from gate to mid-stretch. Won the pace battle but lost the race when a closer blew by. And I was caught in the shadow of the wire in the final race on my selection sheet, the Grade 3 Honeybee when Alta's Award was nailed in the final strides as the 2/1 favorite. I also was a good second at 9/2 in the opener at Gulfstream and at 4/1 in the Grade 3 Gotham. It was also "costly" (not only statistically but financially) when I went against Starship Jubilee in her rematch with Chad Brown's Magic Star when the latter simply didn't fire at a generous 2/1 price and ran 4th. And it also didn't help matters that the stakes races on the Tampa Bay Derby card followed a similar pattern to what had happened a month ago when upsets ruled the day on Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day, as you can see also below.
So, with that behind us, let's focus on what DID happen that was good! Obviously from the above photo, the shower was a big success and I was so very happy for my daughter that she had a great day and was "showered with love" by everyone. I picked up my first winner in the second at Gulfstream when Creative Honor went right to the front and wired the field. Having just run fourth in a similar nw3L event for this same $12.5K price tag she'd typically be a toss for me. But out of that last she was claimed by trainer Victor Barboza. And this guy has won with an astounding 64% of his first-off-the-claim runners, thirty-three of them, over the last two years. You just can't overlook that number. And I didn't doubling the bet.
Disappointed in Gulfstream's fourth when Chad Brown's Amano debuted as the 6/5 favorite on the turf and was a non-threatening fourth. But I got my second winner shortly thereafter when Love and Love (how appropriate) wired the field in Aqueducts second. I thought I might go on a roll when I picked up consecutive wins around 3:30 pm. First, in the fourth at Oaklawn Liam's Pride lived up to the "hype" as the DRF best bet and duplicated his big last race effort in a maiden special weight event. Doubled the bet for a return of $25. But the most exciting of the pair came in Gulfstream's eighth when Todd Pletcher's Giocare won. On Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day my lone win came with a Pletcher first-timer who wired the field. Running second that day was another Pletcher debut runner, Giocare. The third place finisher from that race was also in here but I thought it easy to separate them. Pletcher's colt was a $300K son of champion Curlin making just his second start - certainly he'd improve, while the other one came from a 10% winning barn and was making his sixth career start. As they approached the far turn top jockey Irad Ortiz was having to work awfully hard on the favorite but mid-way on the turn the colt finally got the idea and accelerated to the front inside the final 100 yards, crossing the finish line right in front of me.
What was also interesting was that today five "prime time/big bets" like this for the day and won with four of them (the aforementioned Magic Star being the only miss) which made me feel good at the end of the day. The "run" I thought I was about to go on was washed away when King For A Day was nailed on the wire, Bob Baffert's Roadster was 2nd best in the Grade 2 San Carlos, Shekky Shebaz was a dull sixth as "everybody's" top pick at 3/5 in Gulfstream's Silks Run Stakes, Magic Star ran her dull 4th at Tampa, and Got Stormy got nailed in the Gr 1 Kilroe out west. But I got back on the winning side of the ledger with my next "prime time" play an an exciting renewal of the Grade 3 Tom Fool at Aqueduct. The top pick for me was Mind Control who had scored in a Grade 1 last year as a 3yo and when coming back off a layoff to kick off his 4yo season here in the Grade 3 Toboggan he'd duplicated his 3yo best Beyer. That's often a sign of an impending big effort. Add in that he had a 4/3-1-0 record at Aqueduct and he looked solid. I envisioned him sitting just off the pace to the far turn before running away with it. Oh no my friends....if you watch the highlight video you'll see why I was so nearly certain all hope was lost. On the far turn he'd hardly begun to run and was next to last. Then while gaining momentum he was wide into the lane trying to catch down the leader who'd opened up. Mind Control kept eating up ground and if you watch closely as he is close to getting the leader with just about 100 yards to go his rider is so confident that he's just letting him run without any urging - caused my heart to flutter just briefly! But he was up in time and paid a generous $4.80 which meant I'd cash for almost $50!
Less than fifteen minutes later they were loading into the gate for the sixth at Santa Anita, a MSW going six and a half furlongs. As I asked in both my analysis and on camera, "When have you ever seen a first-time starting maiden listed at 3/5?" Next to never, if ever. But Bob Baffert's highly touted $1.8 Million daughter of Into Mischief, Gamine, was just that. I made her the BET OF THE DAY, even upping the investment from what I planned to wager, based on her works, the odds, and the fact that not only was she the DRF's Brad Free's BEST BET - remember, as a first time starting maiden - but that only three fillies had entered to run against her. Right to the front and she was just dazzling. After the race talk immediately began to hit social media that Baffert had a very strong Kentucky Oaks filly.
They'd no longer crossed the line in Southern California than I climbed the stairs back to my seat to watch Gulfstream's featured 11th, the Captiva Island. I was actually glad to see that my top pick had scratched. Six weeks ago on the Pegasus undercard in the Ladies' Turf Sprint I thought Girls Know Best would wire the field. Instead she was pressed and narrowly beaten by a filly who was winning her fourth in a row but first on the turf, Jean Elizabeth. Two weeks ago at Tampa in the Lightning City they were set for a rematch and I again liked Girls Know Best because I thought she'd get a clear lead. When she scratched I went with Jean Elizabeth and she wired the field in hand. So today, Jean Elizabeth was coming back on two weeks rest and my inclination was to go with Girls Know Best as I'd picked her on top for the rematch before she scratched. But I just thought Jean Elizabeth looked too good. BUT, now it was Jean Elizabeth's turn to scratch. So duh, went with Girls Know Best who did indeed go wire to wire for my third win on the live card.
Ran 4th and 5th in stakes at respectively Aqueduct and the Fair Grounds before it was time for the Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby. I didn't like either of the two favorites. And for that I get a "moral victory." As good a chance as any to back a Todd Pletcher 3yo, but Market Analysis was a credible 6th at 5/1. The winner ran away but nearly a pole at a HUGE 49/1, paying $100.40 for a $2 bet. WOW. One of my favorite older sprinters is Whitmore, and I've had him several times. And while it's true he HAS won outside of Oaklawn, the VAST majority of his wins have been here. Today I thought he would reverse the outcome of the King Cotton when he lost here to one of today's rivals. The crowd agreed and made him the 4/5 favorite. He sat a nice trip on the rail, moved outside the front runner at the furlong pole and accelerated clear. Wish I'd bet more.
I got my final win of the day, and another "prime time" winner with what is the most impressive 3yo colt I've seen this spring in Authentic. He'd been dazzling in his sprint debut then last time out he tried two turns in the Grade 3 Sham. Right to the front and was running away with it when he began to weave around greenly in the stretch. Ducked in sharply and banged off the rail! Lucky jockey Drayden Van Dyke didn't fall off the Pletcher star as he cruised to an easy win. Today they were going a mile and a sixteenth and I liked him a lot. But today he'd face another Bob Baffert colt, Thousand Worlds who was unbeaten and already had two graded wins. He'd also face last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner - who'd been a huge upset that day. I didn't think either of these had a real chance. But I did think that John Sherriff's Honor AP was a legitimate talent. I noted in my analysis that if the pace was too hot he'd be the one to fear. Right away trouble as Authentic stumbled out of the gate...oh no. Recovered quickly and got to the front. I didn't think he was being pressured to get the lead but when the opening quarter was posted in :22 and change I knew that was too fast. Certainly Van Dyke will slow it down. No. The opening half mile went in :46 and change. He's doomed to be cooked I thought. And as they spun into the stretch here came Honor AP. Listen to Frank Mirahmadi's call on the highlight video...you can tell HE thinks he's about to swoop by. But then Authentic leveled out and found another gear to win going away very impressively.
Interestingly before the day's racing I'd talked to my oldest son Jeff and he and four friends were betting $100 each on Authentic in the Kentucky Derby early wagering pool. He was 12/1 and Jeff thought the pool was closing Saturday morning. But it turns out it closed SUNDAY morning and the odds were cut in half after the dazzling win. I made my final video clip and texted Kimmy where I wold be waiting. She arrived within fifteen minutes and we enjoyed a great time together over a glass of wine and dinner. As a bonus, I was home before 10 pm so I got to watch the entire Florida Panthers home game - gave up my seats to be with my "date" for the evening - and watched the Panther climb back into the playoff race with a 4/1 win over Montreal.
Sunday March 8
The final day of racing for the week saw me with six selections on the eleven race card. In the opener I had a Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden....badly beaten 10th at 9/2 odds. In the second his Maggie Fritz was a $1 Million daughter of champion Ghostzapper. The only "danger" looked to be from the Dale Romans Four Grands. But Romans is struggling at the meet, winning with just 4-of-47 runners and the DRF stats show him a mere 2-for-43 with first time starters. Still she was favored! But she won by daylight with Maggie Fritz second. Sigh.... Then in the most cruelest of turns, I went with Saffie Joseph's newly acquired Witch Hunter as he is so wickedly good with those. But he ran third at 5/2 odds behind.....you guessed it, a Todd Pletcher filly who showed little in her debut and then was immediately dropped in for a tag and added blinkers. Paid $6. Sigh-squared. In the fifth I really likes Bill Mott's Miss T Too who debuted as a hot 9/5 favorite in spite of the fact that "everyone" knows Mott rarely has them ready first time out. She ran 10th of 12 beaten nearly twenty lengths. But in spite of that "effort," the Hall of Famer was bringing her back in just two weeks AND the DRF's Marty McGee made her the BEST of the Day. Right to the front, opened up like she was going to run away with it but began to tire in mid-stretch. Still, finished clear by daylight. And she paid a nice $7.20 so my triple investment returned over $50.
My choice scratched out of the sixth and my last choice ran a worn out sixth at even money. I'd been watching the races on TVG all day because I wanted to hear what the analysts had to say about the feature at Santa Anita today, the Grade 2 Santa Ysbel Stakes for 3yo fillies. I'd seen on the stakes calendar that it was today and when I checked the entries I saw that potential superstar Donna Veloce was entered as the 4/5 program favorite. After a dazzling debut maiden win - when I'd had her because I'd been watching TVG THAT day she was my top choice in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She ran courageously and was narrowly beaten in second. Her next, in the Grade 1 Starlet saw her run second, but that was forgivable I thought after it was run over a sloppy track and the odd configuration of Los Alamitos often sees some horses not run their best. Donna Veloce is quick and with the rail draw you had to figure she'd go to the front. As I watched the pre-race analysis everyone thought that barring something really out of the ordinary she was way too good for these. I opted in and bet the race. The gates opened and she stumbled to her nose.....wow. Not only is that a near certain "death card" for a thoroughbred, but as a front-runner not getting to the front, that's an almost certain "the race is over." Given jockey Flavian Prat all the credit because instead of rushing up to try to get to the front he let her rate behind horses. And as the analysts said afterwards, this may have been a blessing in disguise as she learned to rate today. Truly the best in the field, Donna Veloce swung out on the far turn, opened up and won wrapped up as tons the best. My "prime time" play got back nearly $30.
You can watch all the race winners, other than the Saturday winners on this highlight video recap:
Finished the day with another off-the-board finish to be 2-for-5 for the day.
Thursday March 5
Today's ten race program again only provided five selections for me. Two thirds and a fourth kicked off the afternoon after passing the first, second, and fourth. A lot of sitting watching races with minimal interest. But to be fair I was spending a lot of time on the computer handicapping for Saturday's races. In the seventh I wavered on how to handle Fiber Optic who was probably going to go favored in this non-winners of three lifetime turf sprint. On the one hand, her last race figure would require a career best by her rivals today to beat. And considering she was lightly raced, there was ample reason to believe she could move forward and run even better today. But on the downside, that win came over two-lifetime runners for this same price tag. So my concern was two-fold. First, moving up in class from two-to-three lifetime is not an insignificant hike. And even more of a concern was after that dominant win and sharp speed figure, why wouldn't trainer Ian Wilkes move her into an open event or up in price? Or was he spotting her nicely for another win? I made the original selection for a double investment and thought I'd watch the board when the race came up. Sure enough, she was being hammered in all the pools so I dove in by doubling my own double investment to make her a PRIME TIME play. She pressed the 9/1 front runner to the far turn, seized command and drove to the lead, edging clear by daylight through the final furlong.
Didn't make much money, but as I've said on many occasions it's more about how much confidence I had in my handicapping and backing it up with the same kind of bet that satisfies me. The last selection of the day and my second win HAS to go down as one of the most amazing races I've ever watched. In my analysis of this entry level allowance event for three-year-olds I began by asking the rhetorical question, "....just how good is Up In Smoke...." who had earned a big 76 Beyer in her debut last time out. It added to my confidence that she had some talent when reading the DRF's Marty McGee's report that she was using this allowance event as a bridge to a state-bred stakes try at Tampa at the end of the month. On the other hand, not only was she facing winners for the first time, but her last out maiden debut winning rider, top jockey at the meet Irad Ortiz had jumped off to ride the morning line favorite. So, like the Fiber Optic race I planned on a small bet hoping to get more insight as the race approached. All the Gulfstream analysts remarked about how professional Up In Smoke had looked and how promising a talent she looked to be. I looked at the pools and she was taking a LOT of money. So, I doubled the originally planned minimum bet. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was up and she broke in the first flight, but through the opening quarter he appeared to be having to work her pretty hard to keep up. But as they approached the far turn track announcer Pete Aiello called, "....Up In Smoke is dropping back through the field and is up in smoke...." Midway on the turn she'd dropped so far out of it that she wasn't even in the television screen. And as they turned for home it was another second before you could see here. But when I did, I could see that she seemed to have found new life. The camera focused on the leaders and then suddenly as the angle panned back here she came.....flying very wide down the lane. Not only won, but won going away and geared down. Just a WOW performance. Amazing.
For the day, like Wednesday, I was again 2-for-5, and I'll take that any time.
Breeders' Cup Tickets
Nothing's Ever Easy
So it was over these two days that another, racing-related story that "dominated" my week took place. I've been to many Breeders' Cup World Championships. In fact, I've attended seven of the last ten Breeders' Cup events all over the country and one of my most favorite ones was when it was held at Keeneland in 2015. It's a much smaller venue with just 44,000 seats and it's just "racing as it should be." Normally anywhere from 60,000 to 80,000 attend the the Breeders' Cup. Not a problem to get tickets at most venues, but with the very limited seating here, I was thankful to be considered a "VIP" client and got an "early access" code so I got tickets. The 2020 Breeders' Cup is returning to Keeneland and I was very excited. I became more excited when our great friends Sue & Dan Reynolds said they would like to "reboot" our 2018 trip to the Breeders' Cup in Louisville with Kim and I, and our good friend Keith. So in December I began looking at places to stay for the following November. All hotels, or nearly all were booked. But I found a nice rental home - three bedrooms, two stories with a 2-car garage and made a deposit. I knew with my "VIP Access" I'd get tickets even though they would be limited. I saw about a month ago that tickets would go on sale on Monday March 9. And this week I got an email reminder. But on Wednesday it occurred to me that there was no mention of an early access. So I called them. Yes, there would be an early access sale beginning on Friday but that was for guests who'd been to at least three of the last five, she said. I told her I had been to three of the last FOUR. Looked me up in the system and said I was there and "should" get an access code Friday late. I asked when did the pre-sale start? Friday morning. Ok, that's not good enough I thought. So I called again on Thursday. Got another very helpful girl and she looked me up; updated my profile and promised a code by late Thursday. It came a little after four pm and first thing Friday morning I got in and got tickets for the five of us right around the 16th pole. Pretty excited!
Friday March 6
Probably I was less conservative about my selections today. If truth be told I "should" have had four picks on the day but made six. Won with two of them, so even a 33% day is a good day at the track, so I'm ok with that. Kicked off the day with a winner with the first bet of the day which came in the second race a maiden special event for three-year-olds and up (the first race of the meet open to both 3yo and older). This five-furlong turf dash looked to go strictly through Smack who had Beyers that were clearly, CLEARLY the best in the field. My "concern" was that she was already a seven time maiden AND she'd hit the board in all of them without winning. My "rule" is that once a runner has had six chances, that's it. But another "rule" I have is that in handicapping, there are no rules! I not only went with Smack, but doubled down on filly. She pressed the longshot front runner to the top of the far turn, dueled through the turn and got to the front turning for home. Tyler Gafflione asked her to put the field away and she kicked on as much the best.
A deserving favorite, and I was glad I'd gone in for two-times the minimum so I cashed for nearly twenty bucks. Missed on two maiden events after that before we arrived at the sixth, a claiming event going a mile and a sixteeth with a first line finish. I often wonder about why I don't get very many "good" prices on horses. Is it because I'm reluctant to wager unless they are really solid, or is it that I'm not seeing anything different than what others see, or is it just that bettors are better handicappers these days? If you look at my records I bet a fair share of price horses, just don't win with many. At any rate, in here I thought Starship Aramis was a standout IF you were willing to overlook his last. Two back he'd buried $12.5K runners then was moved into an entry level allowance. Over his head I determined, and he'd hit the gate as they started. I was willing to dismiss that race. I was rewarded when he went off at 2/1 odds. He broke right on top and held a clear advantage. But into the turn the 8/5 favorite came to him, got on even terms, and then put his head in front. That's nearly ALWAYS the "kiss of death" for a thoroughbred. But jockey Luis Saez is one of the most determined riders I have ever seen. No matter what, he won't give up on the race or the horse and he continued to urge 'Aramis to run. Mid-way through the lane he responded and edged clear late for a gutsy win. The $6.00 payoff netted me $30 :) Missed on the last two races of the day.
I enjoyed the day very much, but didn't have nearly as many winners as I typically have, but as I said at the top if the fates made today a "choice" between having a great day at the races and not getting together with my gal-pal for a social event or getting together and sacrificing some wins, I'll gladly take the latter. And I told Kimmy so when we confirmed our "date" early in the afternoon that I considered myself a "winner" on the day since we would be seeing each other later. And I very easily could have "had it all" because of my thirty-six selections today, I ran first-or-second in TWENTY of them. Yes, twenty times....but ELEVEN of those were second place finishes. On a "normal" day I'll hit around 35% winners and today I had just 25%. Three of the eleven would have made me have a "typical" day. Look at the graphic below....three photo finishes that cost me not only the statistics on the day but also cost me at least $80 in winnings. In Gulfstream's third, Three Deep had run three races with Beyers that would take a career best from any of the rest to beat him...and his stablemate at a huge price nailed him on the wire. In the Grade 3 Challenger at Tampa, Todd Pletcher's King For A Day could claim to be the only thoroughbred to actually finish in front of Maximum Security, and he led into deep stretch, only to be caught on the head bob. And finally, in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita, multiple graded stakes winning filly Got Stormy was exiting a dull effort at Tampa but had worked sharply and SHOULD have easily beat this field. Jockey Tyler Gafflione followed the filly out west, in the process giving up the mount on one of the favorites in the Tampa Bay Derby. She tracked the leader in hand, glided to the lead and when asked to kick for home she tried hard, but lacked that lightning quick burst which had carried her to wins last year. To be fair she still WOULD have won if the eventual winner hadn't gotten a dream trip up the rail and gotten to her in the final strides. And these were all short-priced favorites. In Tampa's second multiple graded stakes winner Point of Honor got a mis-judged ride (too close early) from Javier Castellano and was 2nd at 3/5. Bob Baffert's highly regarded American Code was 3/5 in his debut and dueled from gate to mid-stretch. Won the pace battle but lost the race when a closer blew by. And I was caught in the shadow of the wire in the final race on my selection sheet, the Grade 3 Honeybee when Alta's Award was nailed in the final strides as the 2/1 favorite. I also was a good second at 9/2 in the opener at Gulfstream and at 4/1 in the Grade 3 Gotham. It was also "costly" (not only statistically but financially) when I went against Starship Jubilee in her rematch with Chad Brown's Magic Star when the latter simply didn't fire at a generous 2/1 price and ran 4th. And it also didn't help matters that the stakes races on the Tampa Bay Derby card followed a similar pattern to what had happened a month ago when upsets ruled the day on Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day, as you can see also below.
Disappointed in Gulfstream's fourth when Chad Brown's Amano debuted as the 6/5 favorite on the turf and was a non-threatening fourth. But I got my second winner shortly thereafter when Love and Love (how appropriate) wired the field in Aqueducts second. I thought I might go on a roll when I picked up consecutive wins around 3:30 pm. First, in the fourth at Oaklawn Liam's Pride lived up to the "hype" as the DRF best bet and duplicated his big last race effort in a maiden special weight event. Doubled the bet for a return of $25. But the most exciting of the pair came in Gulfstream's eighth when Todd Pletcher's Giocare won. On Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day my lone win came with a Pletcher first-timer who wired the field. Running second that day was another Pletcher debut runner, Giocare. The third place finisher from that race was also in here but I thought it easy to separate them. Pletcher's colt was a $300K son of champion Curlin making just his second start - certainly he'd improve, while the other one came from a 10% winning barn and was making his sixth career start. As they approached the far turn top jockey Irad Ortiz was having to work awfully hard on the favorite but mid-way on the turn the colt finally got the idea and accelerated to the front inside the final 100 yards, crossing the finish line right in front of me.
What was also interesting was that today five "prime time/big bets" like this for the day and won with four of them (the aforementioned Magic Star being the only miss) which made me feel good at the end of the day. The "run" I thought I was about to go on was washed away when King For A Day was nailed on the wire, Bob Baffert's Roadster was 2nd best in the Grade 2 San Carlos, Shekky Shebaz was a dull sixth as "everybody's" top pick at 3/5 in Gulfstream's Silks Run Stakes, Magic Star ran her dull 4th at Tampa, and Got Stormy got nailed in the Gr 1 Kilroe out west. But I got back on the winning side of the ledger with my next "prime time" play an an exciting renewal of the Grade 3 Tom Fool at Aqueduct. The top pick for me was Mind Control who had scored in a Grade 1 last year as a 3yo and when coming back off a layoff to kick off his 4yo season here in the Grade 3 Toboggan he'd duplicated his 3yo best Beyer. That's often a sign of an impending big effort. Add in that he had a 4/3-1-0 record at Aqueduct and he looked solid. I envisioned him sitting just off the pace to the far turn before running away with it. Oh no my friends....if you watch the highlight video you'll see why I was so nearly certain all hope was lost. On the far turn he'd hardly begun to run and was next to last. Then while gaining momentum he was wide into the lane trying to catch down the leader who'd opened up. Mind Control kept eating up ground and if you watch closely as he is close to getting the leader with just about 100 yards to go his rider is so confident that he's just letting him run without any urging - caused my heart to flutter just briefly! But he was up in time and paid a generous $4.80 which meant I'd cash for almost $50!
Less than fifteen minutes later they were loading into the gate for the sixth at Santa Anita, a MSW going six and a half furlongs. As I asked in both my analysis and on camera, "When have you ever seen a first-time starting maiden listed at 3/5?" Next to never, if ever. But Bob Baffert's highly touted $1.8 Million daughter of Into Mischief, Gamine, was just that. I made her the BET OF THE DAY, even upping the investment from what I planned to wager, based on her works, the odds, and the fact that not only was she the DRF's Brad Free's BEST BET - remember, as a first time starting maiden - but that only three fillies had entered to run against her. Right to the front and she was just dazzling. After the race talk immediately began to hit social media that Baffert had a very strong Kentucky Oaks filly.
They'd no longer crossed the line in Southern California than I climbed the stairs back to my seat to watch Gulfstream's featured 11th, the Captiva Island. I was actually glad to see that my top pick had scratched. Six weeks ago on the Pegasus undercard in the Ladies' Turf Sprint I thought Girls Know Best would wire the field. Instead she was pressed and narrowly beaten by a filly who was winning her fourth in a row but first on the turf, Jean Elizabeth. Two weeks ago at Tampa in the Lightning City they were set for a rematch and I again liked Girls Know Best because I thought she'd get a clear lead. When she scratched I went with Jean Elizabeth and she wired the field in hand. So today, Jean Elizabeth was coming back on two weeks rest and my inclination was to go with Girls Know Best as I'd picked her on top for the rematch before she scratched. But I just thought Jean Elizabeth looked too good. BUT, now it was Jean Elizabeth's turn to scratch. So duh, went with Girls Know Best who did indeed go wire to wire for my third win on the live card.
Ran 4th and 5th in stakes at respectively Aqueduct and the Fair Grounds before it was time for the Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby. I didn't like either of the two favorites. And for that I get a "moral victory." As good a chance as any to back a Todd Pletcher 3yo, but Market Analysis was a credible 6th at 5/1. The winner ran away but nearly a pole at a HUGE 49/1, paying $100.40 for a $2 bet. WOW. One of my favorite older sprinters is Whitmore, and I've had him several times. And while it's true he HAS won outside of Oaklawn, the VAST majority of his wins have been here. Today I thought he would reverse the outcome of the King Cotton when he lost here to one of today's rivals. The crowd agreed and made him the 4/5 favorite. He sat a nice trip on the rail, moved outside the front runner at the furlong pole and accelerated clear. Wish I'd bet more.
I got my final win of the day, and another "prime time" winner with what is the most impressive 3yo colt I've seen this spring in Authentic. He'd been dazzling in his sprint debut then last time out he tried two turns in the Grade 3 Sham. Right to the front and was running away with it when he began to weave around greenly in the stretch. Ducked in sharply and banged off the rail! Lucky jockey Drayden Van Dyke didn't fall off the Pletcher star as he cruised to an easy win. Today they were going a mile and a sixteenth and I liked him a lot. But today he'd face another Bob Baffert colt, Thousand Worlds who was unbeaten and already had two graded wins. He'd also face last fall's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner - who'd been a huge upset that day. I didn't think either of these had a real chance. But I did think that John Sherriff's Honor AP was a legitimate talent. I noted in my analysis that if the pace was too hot he'd be the one to fear. Right away trouble as Authentic stumbled out of the gate...oh no. Recovered quickly and got to the front. I didn't think he was being pressured to get the lead but when the opening quarter was posted in :22 and change I knew that was too fast. Certainly Van Dyke will slow it down. No. The opening half mile went in :46 and change. He's doomed to be cooked I thought. And as they spun into the stretch here came Honor AP. Listen to Frank Mirahmadi's call on the highlight video...you can tell HE thinks he's about to swoop by. But then Authentic leveled out and found another gear to win going away very impressively.
Interestingly before the day's racing I'd talked to my oldest son Jeff and he and four friends were betting $100 each on Authentic in the Kentucky Derby early wagering pool. He was 12/1 and Jeff thought the pool was closing Saturday morning. But it turns out it closed SUNDAY morning and the odds were cut in half after the dazzling win. I made my final video clip and texted Kimmy where I wold be waiting. She arrived within fifteen minutes and we enjoyed a great time together over a glass of wine and dinner. As a bonus, I was home before 10 pm so I got to watch the entire Florida Panthers home game - gave up my seats to be with my "date" for the evening - and watched the Panther climb back into the playoff race with a 4/1 win over Montreal.
Saturday March 7th Racing Highlights
The final day of racing for the week saw me with six selections on the eleven race card. In the opener I had a Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden....badly beaten 10th at 9/2 odds. In the second his Maggie Fritz was a $1 Million daughter of champion Ghostzapper. The only "danger" looked to be from the Dale Romans Four Grands. But Romans is struggling at the meet, winning with just 4-of-47 runners and the DRF stats show him a mere 2-for-43 with first time starters. Still she was favored! But she won by daylight with Maggie Fritz second. Sigh.... Then in the most cruelest of turns, I went with Saffie Joseph's newly acquired Witch Hunter as he is so wickedly good with those. But he ran third at 5/2 odds behind.....you guessed it, a Todd Pletcher filly who showed little in her debut and then was immediately dropped in for a tag and added blinkers. Paid $6. Sigh-squared. In the fifth I really likes Bill Mott's Miss T Too who debuted as a hot 9/5 favorite in spite of the fact that "everyone" knows Mott rarely has them ready first time out. She ran 10th of 12 beaten nearly twenty lengths. But in spite of that "effort," the Hall of Famer was bringing her back in just two weeks AND the DRF's Marty McGee made her the BEST of the Day. Right to the front, opened up like she was going to run away with it but began to tire in mid-stretch. Still, finished clear by daylight. And she paid a nice $7.20 so my triple investment returned over $50.
My choice scratched out of the sixth and my last choice ran a worn out sixth at even money. I'd been watching the races on TVG all day because I wanted to hear what the analysts had to say about the feature at Santa Anita today, the Grade 2 Santa Ysbel Stakes for 3yo fillies. I'd seen on the stakes calendar that it was today and when I checked the entries I saw that potential superstar Donna Veloce was entered as the 4/5 program favorite. After a dazzling debut maiden win - when I'd had her because I'd been watching TVG THAT day she was my top choice in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She ran courageously and was narrowly beaten in second. Her next, in the Grade 1 Starlet saw her run second, but that was forgivable I thought after it was run over a sloppy track and the odd configuration of Los Alamitos often sees some horses not run their best. Donna Veloce is quick and with the rail draw you had to figure she'd go to the front. As I watched the pre-race analysis everyone thought that barring something really out of the ordinary she was way too good for these. I opted in and bet the race. The gates opened and she stumbled to her nose.....wow. Not only is that a near certain "death card" for a thoroughbred, but as a front-runner not getting to the front, that's an almost certain "the race is over." Given jockey Flavian Prat all the credit because instead of rushing up to try to get to the front he let her rate behind horses. And as the analysts said afterwards, this may have been a blessing in disguise as she learned to rate today. Truly the best in the field, Donna Veloce swung out on the far turn, opened up and won wrapped up as tons the best. My "prime time" play got back nearly $30.
You can watch all the race winners, other than the Saturday winners on this highlight video recap:
No comments:
Post a Comment