February 26 - March 1
The last of the really BIG Saturday racing cards has come and gone and now we're down to just the signature Florida Derby Day card for "big time" events. BUT that doesn't mean that there won't be any significant races to be handicapped and wagered on. Oh no my friends....in addition to the always strong (even on the weekdays) racing offerings at Gulfstream, this Saturday is Tampa Bay Derby Day, Santa Anita Handicap Day out west - with the Gr 2 San Vicente for 3yo (like our Fountain of Youth), and Gotham Stakes Day at Aqueduct (again, the NY version of the Ftn of Youth). Then a week from Saturday it's Oaklawn's turn for 3yo prep races with Rebel Stakes Day. And the following weekend - Saturday March 21 - it's Louisiana Derby Day at the Fair Grounds where my buddy Keith and I will be trackside for all the action! So here's how FOY week played out for me......
Wednesday Feb 26
The start of the week and the day could not have been scripted any better! The opener was a maiden claiming event for 3yo going five furlongs on the turf. Two sophomores, Wordman and Young Raymond had finished just 3/4 of a length apart when they last raced on January 30th. The former was a Todd Pletcher 3yo and that would make him an automatic play in nearly every circumstance, but I found it very interesting that there was a change in riders. OK, his jockey from that January race, Luis Saez, was in Saudi Arabia for Saturday's $20 Million Saudi Cup, but Pletcher's typical go-to riders of John Velazquez and Javier Castellano were both in town and NEITHER were named. Instead Paco Lopez would ride today. Now Lopez is an excellent rider, but in the last two years here at Gulfstream he's been on FOUR Pletcher horses, four. Hmmmm. Well, the decision was taken out of my hands because before they were saddled up, Wordman was scratched. I looked at my comments and decided rather than pass the race I'd go with my second choice. Two things appealed to me: first, his last race at this turf sprint distance was his first time on the grass and typically runners will improve the second time they try something; but 2nd and most importantly, the entire meet has produced so very many turf sprint winners who've burst out of the gate on top and never looked back with Emisael Jaramillo on board....yes he was riding today. Right to the front and while it appeared he was under pressure, I could tell Jaramillo had yet to ask 'Raymond to run. When heads turned for home and he did ask, the response was immediate and the colt lengthened his stride to run away by four widening lengths!
After passing the second and the third, I had a pick in the fourth a maiden special event for older horses going a one-turn mile. The crowd had a difficult time separating two runners with multiple losses already. My second choice, Felix the Fox came from Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey but I just didn't like that he'd already had eight tries and had run second in five of them, ouch. And as I noted in my analysis, only ONE of those eight winners had since come back to win. The other well bet runner was Derby Date. After running second in his second start he ran in three straight 2yo graded stakes. He was beaten a combined 50+ lengths in those. Then he dropped back in with maidens and was fifth, beaten nearly 15 lengths. Off for fourteen months, he'd returned last January at the Fair Grounds in another maiden event and was again fifth, beaten almost eight lengths as the 2/1 favorite. No to that. I preferred Beau Luminaire who'd only been out twice. In his debut he hit the gate coming out, ouch, and then showed nothing.....that more than a year ago. He'd returned in late December and was a best-of-the-rest 2nd to a colt named Fearless who was a Todd Pletcher runner and he's since come back to win. I not only liked 'Beau, but disliked the alternatives so I doubled the bet. He was on the lead just a head in front of Derby Date to the far turn, then that one gave way. As they came through the turn Felix the Fox was making up ground and got within a length of Beau Luminaire, but when asked to open up turning for home he powered home to win by more than half a dozen widening lengths. And the best part, check out the price....
WHOOOO HOOOO! Cashed for over $40 on my second selection of the week. The last four picks for the day netted a second, two thirds, and an out-of-the-money finish.
Thursday Feb 27
The bad news for Thursday was that with four picks I ran 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. The good news is that the other selection was my BEST BET of the Day and he won. The fourth was a maiden special sprint for older runners. My top pick was Unshaken, check out his past performance record:
You'll note I've highlighted those items I discussed in my analysis.....the first thing to catch my eye was that he was lightly raced, so there's room for improvement. You'll note that he debuted last April at the always-tough Keeneland spring meet and was the 2/1 favorite that day. The son of champion Tapit is a Godolphin home-bred and they are an international powerhouse which very often produce their own champions. On that April debut date he'd broken poorly, 10th of eleven when "bothered at the start" according to the comment line. But he rushed up to press the leaders. This nearly always results in a fading finish to be well beaten. But to Unshaken's credit he held on to fourth place AND was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths for all the money. AND look at the top three finishers....the show colt was a head in front of Unshaken! You'll also see that the runner-up came right back to win. All this says he ran a remarkable race in a strong field. But will he be ready for today? Note trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is a 17% winner with long layoffs (see the bottom left stat?) and he's put Unshaken through three sharp works: a bullet work on Feb 6, a 2nd best of 48 work on Jan 31 and a third best work of 81 on Jan 25. He's ready. None of this escaped the crowd as Unshaken was sent off as the prohibitive favorite. He stalked a trio of early leaders under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, moved three wide to the front. Cleared them and drove to the wire. It wasn't a "WOW" kind of effort, but he clearly was best and he won for fun.
Friday February 28
I only had six selections from the ten-race Friday card and one of those scratched leaving me with just a trio of runners to bet today. I spent a lot of time on Thursday and then Friday morning putting together my analysis of all 155 runners entered for Saturday's big 14-race card. But I was very excited for the races today, even with just three selections. The reason was because of a Todd Pletcher filly running later in the day. Was my first pick was in the second where Lady Archa looked much the best on paper and left the gate at 4/5. Three-wide on the turn, ready to swoop by.....and then, nothing. A disappointing fourth of six runners. In the fifth, it was a maiden special for 3yo going a one-turn mile on the dirt. Yes, there was a Todd Pletcher runner - on the rail, Roman Empire. I found it interesting that Pletcher had debuted him on the turf when nothing in his breeding or Tomlinson figures - in my opinion - screamed out TURF! He was slow to begin but came FLYING from the back to grab third place money. Now moved to the dirt where I thought he'd run better and noting that Pletcher was 27% with second time maidens. And to give myself a pat on the back, I said in my analysis that we'd be lucky to get 1/4 the 8-1 odds offered on the DRF morning line. Sure enough, Roman Empire was a minuscule 3/5 at post time. He settled at the back of the half dozen sophomores but only about two off the front. John Velazquez guided him three wide around the turn and he came to the front runners looming a danger. But when asked, the colt exploded to run away in a really impressive fashion finishing officially 8 3/4 lengths in front on the wire. Nice looking colt - maybe we see him in stakes company next time out?
The highlight of the day, I thought would come in today's 9th when Pletcher's impressive first time out winning filly, Eve of War was making her return to the races. She'd been so impressive that her return today off that February 2nd dominating win made her a headline story in the Daily Racing Form. I know that off a blow-out win in their debut, thoroughbreds often regress. Even more so when they win wire-to-wire as Eve of War had. But all winter I've been looking for my "Derby Horse" which is usually an impressive Pletcher 3yo colt. But the only two runners he's sent out that have been "WOW" winners in my eyes has been Eve of War and Spice of Life who is favored in tomorrow's Grade 2 Davona Dale. Not sure just how much it cost her but Eve of War stumbled out of the gate and then was steadied briefly. First, that's never good no matter what you're running style, and second as a front-runner that's just the end of the story. Still, as impressive as she'd been I thought maybe this was a good way for her to demonstrate she could sit off the pace, which would be indicative that she'd be a star in the 3yo big route races for fillies. While she wasn't trailing the field she never got within four of the front and most disappointingly she didn't make up any ground through the stretch. So we'll have to see when and where she comes back. One thing is nearly certain, because of this "dull" effort she'll probably be a better price next time out.
Saturday February 29: Fountain of Youth Day
The big day arrived and it was CHILLY this morning, temps in the upper 40s. Brrrr. With the jam-packed card of fourteen races and nine graded stakes the first race post was set at 11:30 am, meaning we'd need to leave at a little after 10 am. My best bud Keith had circled two racing weekends to visit us - the first was on Pegasus World Cup weekend and this was the second. Originally he invited two of his nieces to join him. One, Jorie, has been here before and we like her a lot. The other was on the fence, but when it came time to buy tickets a month ago we agreed better to be safe than sorry. In the end she decided not to come but much to my delight my sweetheart of a wife Kim decided to spend the day with us. Regardless of how the results turned out THIS was going to be a great day - super, "Chamber of Commerce" weather, front-row seats for some of the best racing in North America, and with good friends & family along to share my passion for thoroughbred racing. And the day did NOT disappoint. After going through and commenting in detail on all one-hundred and fifty-five entries for the day I made my final analysis and picks. I was surprised when the program odds were released Thursday afternoon that nearly ALL of my picks were NOT short-prices and/or favorites. But I felt "better" when I read through what the local professional analysts thought as nearly every single one of my picks was also one of their top three picks. I'd completed my handicapping for Gulfstream Friday morning and then spent the rest of the day going through the cards from Aqueduct, Laurel, and a couple picks from Saudi Cup night in the Middle East. I had given some thought to not playing anywhere but Gulfstream since I had thirteen selections. Then I considered playing five or six tracks, but when I looked at the entries I thought that would be a waste of effort to find solid picks. So in the end I had a sheet with twenty-three wagering opportunities. It made the day more exciting in that this was Jorie's first trip to the races and she was very pumped for the experience!
In the opener it was a straight claimer on the turf and I had Farley who had faced better and had top NY rider Manny Franco who was in town for the day. He went off at a generous 7/2 odds and probably would have won but as he began to accelerate and close on the leaders along the rail turning for home he was cut off and had to slam on the brakes - finished sixth. Right after the race I went inside the simulcast area to watch the first of two picks from Saudi Arabia, top US sprinter Imperial Hint in the $1.2 Million Saudi Sprint. I was leery in that he'd been flat in his season opener here, but that was at 7f and certainly he was pointing for this race. Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 choice he never was in the mix. A very dull eighth. In the second I liked Todd Pletcher's 3yo I'll Fight Dempsey. The "problem" was that today, as is often the case, Pletcher had TWO in the race. But I figured most would agree with me that if John Velazquez was on board 'Dempsey, that was the more likely winner of the two even with the dreaded rail draw that often intimidates young, inexperienced horses. He broke sharply and quickly established command. Once in front he never looked back and wired the field. The surprising thing was that in spite of the connections he was a healthy 2/1 so I cashed for $30!
Minutes later it was time for my first pick from Laurel Park in Maryland. I liked the 4/5 program favorite, Self Awareness who was second in his debut. He'd fought to the front into the stretch but got run down by an experienced foe. Today he dueled along the inside, looked like he would be overtaken, but in deep stretch he fought back and edged clear to win. Only paid $3.20 on a minimum bet, but it was a winner! And shortly thereafter it was time for what is now the richest race in the world. Three-year-old champion Maximum Security had run last winter in $35K starter optional events, then stretched out to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby. He was wrongfully (in my opinion) DQ'd from first in the Kentucky Derby - the ONLY horse who's ever been DQ'd from the most famous race in the world - but he'd come back to win multiple graded stakes and the connections publicly stated his 4yo debut would come in the $9 Million Pegasus World Cup. No surprise since he'd run so well here. Then just a month out from Pegasus Day, Gulfstream management announced the purse had been cut to "just" $3 Million - still the second richest race in North America - but with the big cut in pay Maximum Security's team switched gears and pointed for the new $20 Million Saudi Cup race. You never know if a 3yo will return to be as good as a 4yo, but this colt just has always seemed ultra-talented to me. And with the big field, the long trip, it being his 4yo debut I thought we'd get a good price. He left the gate as the favorite, but at 6/5 - a "big" price for him. He didn't make the front, which I thought he would but instead was tracking the Pegasus winner, Bob Baffert's Mucho Gusto. I was watching with Keith on the monitor and both of us expressed our uneasiness when jockey Luis Saez had to start asking him, hard, to run on the turn. But I did think he is a fighter, don't give up on him. He began to get to Mucho Gusto then that one began to drift farther and farther outward making us run even farther to run him down. Finally Saez had had enough and ducked inside the front runner who edged over towards him - really? Now we were inside the final 16th and Maximum Security had made the lead. But flying up the rail was multiple Gr 1 winning mare, Midnight Bisou. Too late, and as Maximum Security crossed the line it was oh-so-cool that the large crowd gathered to watch on the big screen exploded in cheers - Keith and I joining in whole heartedly. Good for Maximum Security, HORRAY!
Later in the day I remarked to Kim that regardless of how the day turned out I'd leave here with a good feeling - the crowd, the excitement of a big day, and most especially feeling really good for champion Maximum Security. Ran second in back-to-back stakes at Gulfstream and then a solid fourth at a big 8/1 price. Good handicapping, just no payoff. Missed at both Laurel and Aqueduct, then passed the 6th at GP before cashing on my first winner at Aqueduct when Double Shot split horses in deep stretch to score as the favorite. Todd Pletcher's Cap de Creus was a disappointing 7th at 4/1 in the Grade 3 Very One. One of the most exciting moments of the day came as they crossed the line however because I heard Keith say to Jorie, "You've got it!" and I looked up to see that the winner was 14/1 on the board! I turned to her and said, "Why did you pick that one?" And her reply was that she didn't like the fact that there were two horse who both had "Lemon" in their name and that "Elizabeth Way" was a nice name. Sigh.....
I got a big thrill when Pletcher's first time starter Fried Rice King came flying up the rail late at 15/1.....maybe....too late, a close fourth. In the Gr 3 Herecomesthebride my second choice Cheermeister took the lead and my top pick, Abscond was sitting right on her flank. When no one came running on the turn from the back I was nearly certain I'd win. She made her move, but Cheermeister had just enough left to hold her off, second....again. I won a race at Laurel when Groove won first off the claim for the top barn in Maryland - paid a nice $7.80 so I collected nearly $20 on just the minimum bet! Scuttlebuzz was 4th as the favorite in NY before the fillies went to post in the Grade 2 Davona Dale for 3yo fillies at Gulfstream. While I admired the unbeaten filly, Tonalist's Shape - who I'd won with on Holy Bull Day in the Gr 3 Forward Gal - I was nearly certain that she'd not really beaten anyone of quality. And while my pick was only a first time out winner, the Todd Pletcher trained Spice Is Nice had clearly been the most impressive 3yo I'd seen all winter. Also liked that everyone of the public "experts" put her on top and she was the 7/5 program favorite. She was my "BEST" of the day. She never looked comfortable to me, and the uneasiness I'd had after Eve of War had disappointed on Friday came to fruition as she just couldn't get by Tonalist's Shape who was a juicy 2/1 winner. I still think that one is good, but not good enough to threaten in the Gulfstream Park Oaks on Derby Day or in the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May...we'll see. Next up on my sheet was the Grade 3 Canadian Turf going a mile on the grass. I just had this "feeling" I was about to win - why? Because I'd only had one winner locally and this was one of my few bets on the day at Gulfstream that I was only betting five bucks. Sure enough Todd Pletcher's Gidu set a torrid pace and his stablemate, my pick, Sombeyay inhaled him inside the final 1/8th of a mile. The only "consolation" for me was that he paid a nice $9.40 so even with the minimum bet I cashed for over $20.
The featured eighth at Aqueduct was next on my selection sheet. The first thing that had caught my eye about the NY stakes was the distance - a mile and five-sixteenths on the dirt. They next-to-never go a marathon distance on the main track. And as I looked through the field I was surprised that my pick was a horse who would be way, WAY back early on. Both Adventist - my pick - and Backsideofthemoon had faced the streaking Mr. Buff last time out in the Jazil Stakes. He's a wicked fast front runner and he'd run both off their feet (then came back to be even more impressive last week as my top choice in the Haynesfield Stakes). Going the nine furlongs of the Jazil Adventist had come from 20, yes TWENTY lengths behind to get within a nose of second-place 'Moon. With today's ultra-stretch out from nine to 10 1/2 furlongs I thought I would have more than ample time to run by the leaders. My only concern is that nearly every novice handicapper thinks the farther they go the better the chances for a late runner when in fact more times than not the winner of a long distance event is a front-runner, or at least a runner who presses the leader. Sure enough, right away Adventist was far back. While it wasn't double digits back, he was CLEARLY well behind the rest of the field with multiple lengths to the next-to-last runner. Considering how far they were going and that these were not graded stakes types, the early fraction of :24 and change for the opening quarter mile told me Adventist would have more than a fair shot to run them down. As the field approached the far turn he began to accelerate noticeably. He'd run by on halfway through the turn and was into third turning for home, but he came some five or more wide into the lane. The one that emerged with the lead, not Backsideofthemoon who had scratched, looked to have something left but all the momentum was with my pick. Announcer John Imbriale called, "Adventist is into second with an eighth of a mile to go and he's gaining......they're inside a sixteenth of a mile to go and Adventist continues to close....." then in the final 100 yards he just kept right on going to win going away. And like my earlier winners today he was a more-than-fair price I thought, paying $6.40, which allowed me to cash for over $30.
The last three picks on my sheet were the last three from Gulfstream. Disappointed not only that Zenden didn't win the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Mile for Todd Pletcher and Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, but I thought he had a great chance because he'd be close to the front end. He trailed the field from start to finish. Even when you know, you never know as "Trotter" says in the great racing film, "Let It Ride." As post time approached for the next-to-last race, the Grade 2 MacDiarmida Keith and I discussed what we thought of the runners. I said to him, and to both the girls, "When I first looked at this race my first thought was emphatically, 'well, I know Zulu Alpha WON'T win' ...." He'd won the Grade 1 $1 Million Pegasus Turf but had the perfect set-up and the ideal trip up the rail. But the more I looked for someone to beat him it was pretty obvious to me that EITHER he WOULD win or the winner would be a runner that didn't make any sense from any handicapping angle. I DID like that the last six Beyer speed figures Zulu Alpha had posted would beat every LIFETIME Beyer earned by the rest of the field except two numbers. And both the horses that had a figure that would beat one of those six numbers, Zulu Alpha had already beaten them both. As the field rounded the far turn of the eleven furlong marathon turf event jockey Tyler Gafflione gave 'Zulu his cue. Smoothly he began picking off horses effortlessly. He was wide into the lane but he had the momentum and by the time they were in front of us in our seats he'd made the lead and drew off to win by daylight. I'd made a "prime time" bet on him and was rewarded with a return of $40.
The finale on the card was THE MAIN event, the $400K Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Keith and I both agreed that one of two things was about to happen. Highly regarded Dennis' Moment either was as good as all they hype and would make amends for his loss as the favorite in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile when he had a terrible start to lose all chance; OR, someone else would win that really didn't figure on paper. Halfway down the backstretch when 'Dennis was in a good fourth place spot and SHOULD have made his move he didn't and then he back-peddled to finish dead last. The winner went wire to wire and both of us agreed, we'd NEVER have picked him to win. For the day I was 8-for-23, a sharp 35%. I WOULD have had a profit if just ONE of my four second place finishers at Gulfstream had won. Sigh.....but it was a great day.
You'll note that all the "professional handicappers" who get PAID to make selections struggled today. Only Ron Nicoletti and that "other guy" - who's that? Oh yeah, ME1 - had multiple wins on the day. And most of the runners that were short prices were NOT a popular selection. Could mean another big payoff day (if you're right) on Florida Derby Day! Keith came out in the black and our girl Jorie, first time at the track - cashed out for over $120 to be the Queen for the day. We topped off the day with a delicious dinner at The Yardhouse, right behind the paddock. What a wonderful day it was!
Sunday March 1
Early this morning (like 4:00 am early!) Keith and Jorie left for the airport and mid-morning Kim left for Delray Beach to pick up her Mom who'd spent a couple nights up there with her niece. So I worked on recapping Saturday's action in photo/video form and watched the races. Kim and I had a 4 pm hockey game to get to so I knew I'd only see about half of the races live. After I'd finished picking the twelve-race card I had eight selections. And I knew two things: first, probably not going to "get rich" today as none of these would end up being prices of more than 3/1 at best and two, the day would hinge on how comeback star-crossed Hidden Scroll ran today as he was my BEST BET today. My top pick in the opener scratched and then I ran third with Markistan in the second - I note him by name because in his last start I "won" with him even though he ran third because he was declared a non-starter after the assistant starter held him too long in the gate hindering his start. In the fourth I interpreted the trouble comment for Summer Sangria, "....tugged hard..." when he was rated off the pace that jockey John Velazquez and trainer Wesley Ward had tried to teach her to rate off the pace after back-to-back frontrunning and fade efforts. So when the past performances today she'd have the equipment change of "blinkers off," they were probably going to let her go today. If so I thought she'd wire the field with ease. Broke smoothly, right to the front. Pressured through the turn I noted the first quarter in :22 flat which isn't flying and I was pretty confident. Velazquez shook the reins and the filly spurted clear and drew off to win for fun, opening up by five under wraps on the line.
The fifth was "THE" race of the day. A year ago on Pegasus World Cup Day trainer Bill Mott sent out a first time starter, Hidden Scroll in a one-turn mile maiden event. He not only won by eight widening lengths, but earned a massive 104 Beyer figure and the usually conservative Mott immediately commented that they would point for the Kentucky Derby!
In his next start, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth the rider sent him immediately to the lead in spite of an outside draw and the fact he was going two turns for the first time. The pace was insane and why the rider continued to duel on the lead was beyond me. I thought it was a testament to his talent that he finished a close fourth. He next went in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and in a race where he probably WAS the fastest the rider pulled him back off the lead. Again a disappointment and the Derby dreams ended. He showed up on Kentucky Derby Day in an allowance and was dull. Wisely they put him away for the year. He was slated to return in an allowance in January and he was my top pick. I was concerned that day because in the same race was a Pletcher runner who too had run big before being put away. That day I commented that who ever ran back to their "big" race would win. As they loaded in the gate Hidden Scroll acted up, tossed the rider and scratched. So I bet and won with the Pletcher colt. In here today the field was DECIDEDLY less formidable. In my opinion if he didn't beat these and beat them soundly it would be time to retire him and live on the glories of that one big race. John Velazquez was on board today. He broke pretty cleanly and had company on the front end for the first quarter of a mile. But then on the far turn without even being asked he began to draw off and he scored by an emphatic 12 1/2 lengths. Heeee'ssss back! Look for him in a small stakes, maybe on Florida Derby Day and we'll see if he can progress to deliver on that promise that he once held.
I got to watch two more races. Off the board in the first but in Race 7 Todd Pletcher was sending out a turf runner for their first start of 2020. Opry had debuted in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga in 2018 where only the best two-year-olds debut. Then AS A MAIDEN he won the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes there. Came back in the Gr 3 Pilgrim when fourth then tried the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was soundly beaten. Wasn't seen for seven months when 2nd in a Belmont turf allowance with a big 90 Beyer figure. And nothing until today. Obviously there are some physical issues, but also as obvious when healthy, Opry is talented. Pletcher specializes in long layoff runners like this at Gulfstream and Opry proved to be another one. Broke sharply, went right to the front and led gate to wire the entire mile and a sixteenth distance. And he went off at a nice 8/5 so I cashed for nearly $30 on the final winner of the week.
Our hockey team didn't have any fire...got outplayed and outworked while being shut out 3-0. When we got home I watched my last three races and ran 2nd and third twice. With the end of February it was time to add up the numbers again and I was please with the continued success I'm having at this difficult winter meet / season.
Thursday Feb 27
The bad news for Thursday was that with four picks I ran 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. The good news is that the other selection was my BEST BET of the Day and he won. The fourth was a maiden special sprint for older runners. My top pick was Unshaken, check out his past performance record:
You'll note I've highlighted those items I discussed in my analysis.....the first thing to catch my eye was that he was lightly raced, so there's room for improvement. You'll note that he debuted last April at the always-tough Keeneland spring meet and was the 2/1 favorite that day. The son of champion Tapit is a Godolphin home-bred and they are an international powerhouse which very often produce their own champions. On that April debut date he'd broken poorly, 10th of eleven when "bothered at the start" according to the comment line. But he rushed up to press the leaders. This nearly always results in a fading finish to be well beaten. But to Unshaken's credit he held on to fourth place AND was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths for all the money. AND look at the top three finishers....the show colt was a head in front of Unshaken! You'll also see that the runner-up came right back to win. All this says he ran a remarkable race in a strong field. But will he be ready for today? Note trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is a 17% winner with long layoffs (see the bottom left stat?) and he's put Unshaken through three sharp works: a bullet work on Feb 6, a 2nd best of 48 work on Jan 31 and a third best work of 81 on Jan 25. He's ready. None of this escaped the crowd as Unshaken was sent off as the prohibitive favorite. He stalked a trio of early leaders under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, moved three wide to the front. Cleared them and drove to the wire. It wasn't a "WOW" kind of effort, but he clearly was best and he won for fun.
Friday February 28
I only had six selections from the ten-race Friday card and one of those scratched leaving me with just a trio of runners to bet today. I spent a lot of time on Thursday and then Friday morning putting together my analysis of all 155 runners entered for Saturday's big 14-race card. But I was very excited for the races today, even with just three selections. The reason was because of a Todd Pletcher filly running later in the day. Was my first pick was in the second where Lady Archa looked much the best on paper and left the gate at 4/5. Three-wide on the turn, ready to swoop by.....and then, nothing. A disappointing fourth of six runners. In the fifth, it was a maiden special for 3yo going a one-turn mile on the dirt. Yes, there was a Todd Pletcher runner - on the rail, Roman Empire. I found it interesting that Pletcher had debuted him on the turf when nothing in his breeding or Tomlinson figures - in my opinion - screamed out TURF! He was slow to begin but came FLYING from the back to grab third place money. Now moved to the dirt where I thought he'd run better and noting that Pletcher was 27% with second time maidens. And to give myself a pat on the back, I said in my analysis that we'd be lucky to get 1/4 the 8-1 odds offered on the DRF morning line. Sure enough, Roman Empire was a minuscule 3/5 at post time. He settled at the back of the half dozen sophomores but only about two off the front. John Velazquez guided him three wide around the turn and he came to the front runners looming a danger. But when asked, the colt exploded to run away in a really impressive fashion finishing officially 8 3/4 lengths in front on the wire. Nice looking colt - maybe we see him in stakes company next time out?
The highlight of the day, I thought would come in today's 9th when Pletcher's impressive first time out winning filly, Eve of War was making her return to the races. She'd been so impressive that her return today off that February 2nd dominating win made her a headline story in the Daily Racing Form. I know that off a blow-out win in their debut, thoroughbreds often regress. Even more so when they win wire-to-wire as Eve of War had. But all winter I've been looking for my "Derby Horse" which is usually an impressive Pletcher 3yo colt. But the only two runners he's sent out that have been "WOW" winners in my eyes has been Eve of War and Spice of Life who is favored in tomorrow's Grade 2 Davona Dale. Not sure just how much it cost her but Eve of War stumbled out of the gate and then was steadied briefly. First, that's never good no matter what you're running style, and second as a front-runner that's just the end of the story. Still, as impressive as she'd been I thought maybe this was a good way for her to demonstrate she could sit off the pace, which would be indicative that she'd be a star in the 3yo big route races for fillies. While she wasn't trailing the field she never got within four of the front and most disappointingly she didn't make up any ground through the stretch. So we'll have to see when and where she comes back. One thing is nearly certain, because of this "dull" effort she'll probably be a better price next time out.
Saturday February 29: Fountain of Youth Day
The big day arrived and it was CHILLY this morning, temps in the upper 40s. Brrrr. With the jam-packed card of fourteen races and nine graded stakes the first race post was set at 11:30 am, meaning we'd need to leave at a little after 10 am. My best bud Keith had circled two racing weekends to visit us - the first was on Pegasus World Cup weekend and this was the second. Originally he invited two of his nieces to join him. One, Jorie, has been here before and we like her a lot. The other was on the fence, but when it came time to buy tickets a month ago we agreed better to be safe than sorry. In the end she decided not to come but much to my delight my sweetheart of a wife Kim decided to spend the day with us. Regardless of how the results turned out THIS was going to be a great day - super, "Chamber of Commerce" weather, front-row seats for some of the best racing in North America, and with good friends & family along to share my passion for thoroughbred racing. And the day did NOT disappoint. After going through and commenting in detail on all one-hundred and fifty-five entries for the day I made my final analysis and picks. I was surprised when the program odds were released Thursday afternoon that nearly ALL of my picks were NOT short-prices and/or favorites. But I felt "better" when I read through what the local professional analysts thought as nearly every single one of my picks was also one of their top three picks. I'd completed my handicapping for Gulfstream Friday morning and then spent the rest of the day going through the cards from Aqueduct, Laurel, and a couple picks from Saudi Cup night in the Middle East. I had given some thought to not playing anywhere but Gulfstream since I had thirteen selections. Then I considered playing five or six tracks, but when I looked at the entries I thought that would be a waste of effort to find solid picks. So in the end I had a sheet with twenty-three wagering opportunities. It made the day more exciting in that this was Jorie's first trip to the races and she was very pumped for the experience!
In the opener it was a straight claimer on the turf and I had Farley who had faced better and had top NY rider Manny Franco who was in town for the day. He went off at a generous 7/2 odds and probably would have won but as he began to accelerate and close on the leaders along the rail turning for home he was cut off and had to slam on the brakes - finished sixth. Right after the race I went inside the simulcast area to watch the first of two picks from Saudi Arabia, top US sprinter Imperial Hint in the $1.2 Million Saudi Sprint. I was leery in that he'd been flat in his season opener here, but that was at 7f and certainly he was pointing for this race. Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 choice he never was in the mix. A very dull eighth. In the second I liked Todd Pletcher's 3yo I'll Fight Dempsey. The "problem" was that today, as is often the case, Pletcher had TWO in the race. But I figured most would agree with me that if John Velazquez was on board 'Dempsey, that was the more likely winner of the two even with the dreaded rail draw that often intimidates young, inexperienced horses. He broke sharply and quickly established command. Once in front he never looked back and wired the field. The surprising thing was that in spite of the connections he was a healthy 2/1 so I cashed for $30!
Minutes later it was time for my first pick from Laurel Park in Maryland. I liked the 4/5 program favorite, Self Awareness who was second in his debut. He'd fought to the front into the stretch but got run down by an experienced foe. Today he dueled along the inside, looked like he would be overtaken, but in deep stretch he fought back and edged clear to win. Only paid $3.20 on a minimum bet, but it was a winner! And shortly thereafter it was time for what is now the richest race in the world. Three-year-old champion Maximum Security had run last winter in $35K starter optional events, then stretched out to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby. He was wrongfully (in my opinion) DQ'd from first in the Kentucky Derby - the ONLY horse who's ever been DQ'd from the most famous race in the world - but he'd come back to win multiple graded stakes and the connections publicly stated his 4yo debut would come in the $9 Million Pegasus World Cup. No surprise since he'd run so well here. Then just a month out from Pegasus Day, Gulfstream management announced the purse had been cut to "just" $3 Million - still the second richest race in North America - but with the big cut in pay Maximum Security's team switched gears and pointed for the new $20 Million Saudi Cup race. You never know if a 3yo will return to be as good as a 4yo, but this colt just has always seemed ultra-talented to me. And with the big field, the long trip, it being his 4yo debut I thought we'd get a good price. He left the gate as the favorite, but at 6/5 - a "big" price for him. He didn't make the front, which I thought he would but instead was tracking the Pegasus winner, Bob Baffert's Mucho Gusto. I was watching with Keith on the monitor and both of us expressed our uneasiness when jockey Luis Saez had to start asking him, hard, to run on the turn. But I did think he is a fighter, don't give up on him. He began to get to Mucho Gusto then that one began to drift farther and farther outward making us run even farther to run him down. Finally Saez had had enough and ducked inside the front runner who edged over towards him - really? Now we were inside the final 16th and Maximum Security had made the lead. But flying up the rail was multiple Gr 1 winning mare, Midnight Bisou. Too late, and as Maximum Security crossed the line it was oh-so-cool that the large crowd gathered to watch on the big screen exploded in cheers - Keith and I joining in whole heartedly. Good for Maximum Security, HORRAY!
Later in the day I remarked to Kim that regardless of how the day turned out I'd leave here with a good feeling - the crowd, the excitement of a big day, and most especially feeling really good for champion Maximum Security. Ran second in back-to-back stakes at Gulfstream and then a solid fourth at a big 8/1 price. Good handicapping, just no payoff. Missed at both Laurel and Aqueduct, then passed the 6th at GP before cashing on my first winner at Aqueduct when Double Shot split horses in deep stretch to score as the favorite. Todd Pletcher's Cap de Creus was a disappointing 7th at 4/1 in the Grade 3 Very One. One of the most exciting moments of the day came as they crossed the line however because I heard Keith say to Jorie, "You've got it!" and I looked up to see that the winner was 14/1 on the board! I turned to her and said, "Why did you pick that one?" And her reply was that she didn't like the fact that there were two horse who both had "Lemon" in their name and that "Elizabeth Way" was a nice name. Sigh.....
I got a big thrill when Pletcher's first time starter Fried Rice King came flying up the rail late at 15/1.....maybe....too late, a close fourth. In the Gr 3 Herecomesthebride my second choice Cheermeister took the lead and my top pick, Abscond was sitting right on her flank. When no one came running on the turn from the back I was nearly certain I'd win. She made her move, but Cheermeister had just enough left to hold her off, second....again. I won a race at Laurel when Groove won first off the claim for the top barn in Maryland - paid a nice $7.80 so I collected nearly $20 on just the minimum bet! Scuttlebuzz was 4th as the favorite in NY before the fillies went to post in the Grade 2 Davona Dale for 3yo fillies at Gulfstream. While I admired the unbeaten filly, Tonalist's Shape - who I'd won with on Holy Bull Day in the Gr 3 Forward Gal - I was nearly certain that she'd not really beaten anyone of quality. And while my pick was only a first time out winner, the Todd Pletcher trained Spice Is Nice had clearly been the most impressive 3yo I'd seen all winter. Also liked that everyone of the public "experts" put her on top and she was the 7/5 program favorite. She was my "BEST" of the day. She never looked comfortable to me, and the uneasiness I'd had after Eve of War had disappointed on Friday came to fruition as she just couldn't get by Tonalist's Shape who was a juicy 2/1 winner. I still think that one is good, but not good enough to threaten in the Gulfstream Park Oaks on Derby Day or in the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May...we'll see. Next up on my sheet was the Grade 3 Canadian Turf going a mile on the grass. I just had this "feeling" I was about to win - why? Because I'd only had one winner locally and this was one of my few bets on the day at Gulfstream that I was only betting five bucks. Sure enough Todd Pletcher's Gidu set a torrid pace and his stablemate, my pick, Sombeyay inhaled him inside the final 1/8th of a mile. The only "consolation" for me was that he paid a nice $9.40 so even with the minimum bet I cashed for over $20.
The featured eighth at Aqueduct was next on my selection sheet. The first thing that had caught my eye about the NY stakes was the distance - a mile and five-sixteenths on the dirt. They next-to-never go a marathon distance on the main track. And as I looked through the field I was surprised that my pick was a horse who would be way, WAY back early on. Both Adventist - my pick - and Backsideofthemoon had faced the streaking Mr. Buff last time out in the Jazil Stakes. He's a wicked fast front runner and he'd run both off their feet (then came back to be even more impressive last week as my top choice in the Haynesfield Stakes). Going the nine furlongs of the Jazil Adventist had come from 20, yes TWENTY lengths behind to get within a nose of second-place 'Moon. With today's ultra-stretch out from nine to 10 1/2 furlongs I thought I would have more than ample time to run by the leaders. My only concern is that nearly every novice handicapper thinks the farther they go the better the chances for a late runner when in fact more times than not the winner of a long distance event is a front-runner, or at least a runner who presses the leader. Sure enough, right away Adventist was far back. While it wasn't double digits back, he was CLEARLY well behind the rest of the field with multiple lengths to the next-to-last runner. Considering how far they were going and that these were not graded stakes types, the early fraction of :24 and change for the opening quarter mile told me Adventist would have more than a fair shot to run them down. As the field approached the far turn he began to accelerate noticeably. He'd run by on halfway through the turn and was into third turning for home, but he came some five or more wide into the lane. The one that emerged with the lead, not Backsideofthemoon who had scratched, looked to have something left but all the momentum was with my pick. Announcer John Imbriale called, "Adventist is into second with an eighth of a mile to go and he's gaining......they're inside a sixteenth of a mile to go and Adventist continues to close....." then in the final 100 yards he just kept right on going to win going away. And like my earlier winners today he was a more-than-fair price I thought, paying $6.40, which allowed me to cash for over $30.
The last three picks on my sheet were the last three from Gulfstream. Disappointed not only that Zenden didn't win the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Mile for Todd Pletcher and Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, but I thought he had a great chance because he'd be close to the front end. He trailed the field from start to finish. Even when you know, you never know as "Trotter" says in the great racing film, "Let It Ride." As post time approached for the next-to-last race, the Grade 2 MacDiarmida Keith and I discussed what we thought of the runners. I said to him, and to both the girls, "When I first looked at this race my first thought was emphatically, 'well, I know Zulu Alpha WON'T win' ...." He'd won the Grade 1 $1 Million Pegasus Turf but had the perfect set-up and the ideal trip up the rail. But the more I looked for someone to beat him it was pretty obvious to me that EITHER he WOULD win or the winner would be a runner that didn't make any sense from any handicapping angle. I DID like that the last six Beyer speed figures Zulu Alpha had posted would beat every LIFETIME Beyer earned by the rest of the field except two numbers. And both the horses that had a figure that would beat one of those six numbers, Zulu Alpha had already beaten them both. As the field rounded the far turn of the eleven furlong marathon turf event jockey Tyler Gafflione gave 'Zulu his cue. Smoothly he began picking off horses effortlessly. He was wide into the lane but he had the momentum and by the time they were in front of us in our seats he'd made the lead and drew off to win by daylight. I'd made a "prime time" bet on him and was rewarded with a return of $40.
The finale on the card was THE MAIN event, the $400K Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Keith and I both agreed that one of two things was about to happen. Highly regarded Dennis' Moment either was as good as all they hype and would make amends for his loss as the favorite in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile when he had a terrible start to lose all chance; OR, someone else would win that really didn't figure on paper. Halfway down the backstretch when 'Dennis was in a good fourth place spot and SHOULD have made his move he didn't and then he back-peddled to finish dead last. The winner went wire to wire and both of us agreed, we'd NEVER have picked him to win. For the day I was 8-for-23, a sharp 35%. I WOULD have had a profit if just ONE of my four second place finishers at Gulfstream had won. Sigh.....but it was a great day.
You'll note that all the "professional handicappers" who get PAID to make selections struggled today. Only Ron Nicoletti and that "other guy" - who's that? Oh yeah, ME1 - had multiple wins on the day. And most of the runners that were short prices were NOT a popular selection. Could mean another big payoff day (if you're right) on Florida Derby Day! Keith came out in the black and our girl Jorie, first time at the track - cashed out for over $120 to be the Queen for the day. We topped off the day with a delicious dinner at The Yardhouse, right behind the paddock. What a wonderful day it was!
Fountain of Youth Day Racing Highlights
Early this morning (like 4:00 am early!) Keith and Jorie left for the airport and mid-morning Kim left for Delray Beach to pick up her Mom who'd spent a couple nights up there with her niece. So I worked on recapping Saturday's action in photo/video form and watched the races. Kim and I had a 4 pm hockey game to get to so I knew I'd only see about half of the races live. After I'd finished picking the twelve-race card I had eight selections. And I knew two things: first, probably not going to "get rich" today as none of these would end up being prices of more than 3/1 at best and two, the day would hinge on how comeback star-crossed Hidden Scroll ran today as he was my BEST BET today. My top pick in the opener scratched and then I ran third with Markistan in the second - I note him by name because in his last start I "won" with him even though he ran third because he was declared a non-starter after the assistant starter held him too long in the gate hindering his start. In the fourth I interpreted the trouble comment for Summer Sangria, "....tugged hard..." when he was rated off the pace that jockey John Velazquez and trainer Wesley Ward had tried to teach her to rate off the pace after back-to-back frontrunning and fade efforts. So when the past performances today she'd have the equipment change of "blinkers off," they were probably going to let her go today. If so I thought she'd wire the field with ease. Broke smoothly, right to the front. Pressured through the turn I noted the first quarter in :22 flat which isn't flying and I was pretty confident. Velazquez shook the reins and the filly spurted clear and drew off to win for fun, opening up by five under wraps on the line.
The fifth was "THE" race of the day. A year ago on Pegasus World Cup Day trainer Bill Mott sent out a first time starter, Hidden Scroll in a one-turn mile maiden event. He not only won by eight widening lengths, but earned a massive 104 Beyer figure and the usually conservative Mott immediately commented that they would point for the Kentucky Derby!
In his next start, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth the rider sent him immediately to the lead in spite of an outside draw and the fact he was going two turns for the first time. The pace was insane and why the rider continued to duel on the lead was beyond me. I thought it was a testament to his talent that he finished a close fourth. He next went in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and in a race where he probably WAS the fastest the rider pulled him back off the lead. Again a disappointment and the Derby dreams ended. He showed up on Kentucky Derby Day in an allowance and was dull. Wisely they put him away for the year. He was slated to return in an allowance in January and he was my top pick. I was concerned that day because in the same race was a Pletcher runner who too had run big before being put away. That day I commented that who ever ran back to their "big" race would win. As they loaded in the gate Hidden Scroll acted up, tossed the rider and scratched. So I bet and won with the Pletcher colt. In here today the field was DECIDEDLY less formidable. In my opinion if he didn't beat these and beat them soundly it would be time to retire him and live on the glories of that one big race. John Velazquez was on board today. He broke pretty cleanly and had company on the front end for the first quarter of a mile. But then on the far turn without even being asked he began to draw off and he scored by an emphatic 12 1/2 lengths. Heeee'ssss back! Look for him in a small stakes, maybe on Florida Derby Day and we'll see if he can progress to deliver on that promise that he once held.
I got to watch two more races. Off the board in the first but in Race 7 Todd Pletcher was sending out a turf runner for their first start of 2020. Opry had debuted in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga in 2018 where only the best two-year-olds debut. Then AS A MAIDEN he won the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes there. Came back in the Gr 3 Pilgrim when fourth then tried the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was soundly beaten. Wasn't seen for seven months when 2nd in a Belmont turf allowance with a big 90 Beyer figure. And nothing until today. Obviously there are some physical issues, but also as obvious when healthy, Opry is talented. Pletcher specializes in long layoff runners like this at Gulfstream and Opry proved to be another one. Broke sharply, went right to the front and led gate to wire the entire mile and a sixteenth distance. And he went off at a nice 8/5 so I cashed for nearly $30 on the final winner of the week.
Our hockey team didn't have any fire...got outplayed and outworked while being shut out 3-0. When we got home I watched my last three races and ran 2nd and third twice. With the end of February it was time to add up the numbers again and I was please with the continued success I'm having at this difficult winter meet / season.
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