February 20 - 23
It was a shortened, 4-day racing week due to the holiday card on Monday and it was a "different" week from my perspective, and from racing perspective. This weekend there were no big races, none. A couple of Gr 3 events but that was it and neither of those featured "big name" runners. But, I thought it would be a good day to just enjoy racing because as I've often said, you don't need to pick the winner of a $1 Million Grade 1 event to make a good handicapping selection and/or get paid. So here's how the week unfolded for me.....
Thursday February 20
Today's card provided seven investment opportunities from the ten races. Which on a week day is kind of a high number. The first was a 3yo maiden claimer on the turf and yes, there was a Todd Pletcher first time starter. As post time approached I was amazed that he was getting next to no betting action. So much so that I said to Kim as she walked through the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" (our family room!) I said to her, "....either everyone else is way off base here, and I'm going to make a big score, or I'm way off base....." Turns out it was a big of both. Rhythm Section left the gate at 7/1 odds and was patiently settled near the back until they reached the far turn. Then jockey Luis Saez asked for run and he made "the move." If you are a racing fan, you know what I'm talking about. Sweeping by runners and was poised to blow by the front runner as they hit the top of the lane. But, his inexperience saw him blow the turn and float some six or seven wide losing ground. He re-broke and closed in on the leader approaching the furlong pole. I could tell he WAS going to run right by. But then his inexperience and greeness set in as he ducked sharply in and nearly brushed the front runner. This temporarily knocked him off stride and he dropped back again. Re-rallied and J-U-S-T missed....oh so close to a near $80+ score to start the week.
Todd Pletcher's 8-Rhythm Section (7.7-1) just misses
As it turned out that was close as I'd come until Race 9, in fact I didn't hit the board with ANY of my other selections. But in the 9th, an entry level allowance sprint going six furlongs. These often are very difficult to predict and if you didn't like the favorite, Flat Awesome Jenny this one would be as well. She'd run in a claiming event two back and had gone last to first to win going away at today's sprint distance. I was impressed by the new career top Beyer AND by the fact that the fractions had NOT been that hot, yet she blew by like they were standing still. Claimed by trainer Kelly Breen he put her in a starter allowance, where she couldn't be claimed. Repeated the rallying victory again to score by daylight with another new career top speed figure. She looked primed for another big effort and that was helped, in my opinion by the fact that the rest of the field - especially the pace setters - looked to be sketchy at best. She was a little closer today, 5th of eight and only a few lengths off the leaders until they reached the top of the lane. Jockey Paco Lopez shook the reins and she was gone, drawing off by daylight without really being asked for her very best. All things considered, I thought the 9/5 price was generous and I cashed on my lone win of the day for nearly $30.
Friday February 21
Today's highlights were two-fold. First, from a non-racing perspective, our good friend Michelle had come to town and wanted to hook up with us. I was oh-so-happy that the time that worked best for her on her weekend visit was this afternoon/evening rather than tomorrow when I'd be gone at the races. Kim went to pick her up on the east side of town, then picked me up and we went out to eat at the Yardhouse restaurant at the Sawgrass Mills Mall before heading to Cypress Bay High School for the state-semifinal girls soccer game. The weather had turned very blustery and frankly cold by the time late afternoon arrived and I had a hooded sweatshirt for the game. Michelle, coming from North Carolina to FLORIDA for the weekend wasn't expecting the brisk weather so she borrowed not one but two light-weight jackets from Kim and as we sat on the top row of the bleachers the three of us cuddled together for warmth. Have to mention that my wife gave Michelle all kinds of grief for wearing the two tops in "backwards" order (yellow jacket under the blue, Cypress Bay wind breaker,) but I thought it was just the right color combination. Too cold to stay we left at halftime (the girls won to advance to the state championship next week!) and we drove her back home. Such a cutie, wish she lived closer.
But back to racing results.... I found the way the day unfolded so, "ironic" I guess would be the way I'd describe it. First post was at 1 pm and I had seven picks originally. But with all the weather I lost my pick in the fourth and my top choice in the eighth. So as I sat there working on Saturday's card I watched as from 1 pm until 5 pm I either did not win or didn't have a bet. It was a long four hours of racing - glad I wasn't at the races today at least. Three times I finished fourth and once I was third. Just close enough to give me faint hope, but never really thought I'd win. The eighth race was over and the horses were in the paddock for the ninth when Michelle arrived. My top pick for the race was the "Main Track Only" choice, a Saffie Joseph trainee, Flora Fantasy. I mention this because this will become a runner you'll hear more about later. It was a turf sprint and the race was one of the few that was kept on the grass. The field walked onto the track as we left for dinner. So as Kim drove us to the restaurant I pulled up the race on my phone. Catharsis had run poorly in his last. But I was willing to forgive that because (a) he was coming off a layoff and (b) it was against $35K OPEN rivals. Today he was in a state-bred $20K allowance-optional claimer. If he ran back to his prior races he'd be much the best. Oh how I wish I'd at least doubled the bet! He sat third to the stretch, moved three wide and drew off. Paid a HUGE $11.60. Was happy to collect the nearly $30 for a minimum bet, but would have been oh so sweet to have had nearly $60 in my account.
Towards the middle of our dinner I pulled up the last race on the day on my phone. The day's finale was a 3yo maiden claiming event on the turf going a mile with a $25K price tag. There wasn't a lot to choose from, but one of the more predictable angles in handicapping is when a thoroughbred runs "paired" figures. That very often is indicative of a move forward and today Gea had done that. As I said in my analysis, a 50 Beyer won't win any stakes races, but the fact that she'd paired these numbers and that both would beat thirty-three of the combined thirty-five figures earned by the rest of the field was a strong indicator of a win candidate. Add in top rider Irad Ortiz was taking the mount and you can see why I put my money on her. She broke from the rail and was quickly tenth of twelve into the first turn. Ortiz asked for run approaching the far turn and she began picking off runners. Three-to-five wide into the stretch she lengthened her stride and drew off to kick clear by daylight. Much like Catharsis I was pleased that somehow she'd been allowed to leave the gate at what I thought was a generous 5/2 price. Cashed for $35. And suddenly, after spending the entire day getting nothing for my handicapping, in a span of about forty minutes the day had become a good 33% winning one with a flat bet profit.
Saturday February 22
Today was THE most unusual day of the week for racing results. As I handicapped for the Saturday at the races I had several factors to consider. First, there wasn't a single racing venue that was having a "big stakes" day, so I'd be playing largely maiden, claiming, and allowance events - typically a little less predictable and lacking a "prime time" bet; second, the weather for South Florida was not only supposed to be chilly as it had been on Friday evening, but the forecast called for a "40% chance of passing showers throughout the day." What to wear? I know, that sounds so trivial but if I'm going to be spending the day outside, that's important. Seemed like it would be coolish with a good breeze so I planned on a sweater. But Friday night it was really COLD. Maybe a sweatshirt and/or jacket. Saturday morning it was gloomy and rainy, so maybe toss that idea, I need to wear my Breeders' Cup weatherproof jacket. An hour later it was mostly clear skies, sunny and actually warm. Put the jacket away, got out a polo shirt. An hour later it was overcast, cool, and very breezy. Opted for the original idea of a sweater with long-sleeve t-shirt and took my hat just in case it was raining. I left for Gulfstream about 10:45 and right away it was drizzling. By the time I got to the Interstate it was a full-out rain. All the way to within a couple of miles of Gulfstream, then the skies opened up and the sun came out. Didn't rain a drop at the track, but it was partly-to-mostly cloudy and a good breeze. Very "chilly" for a Florida boy, especially in the shade, so I was glad I opted for the sweater. When I went to leave, within a mile of Gulfstream it started raining again and rained all the way to within about five miles of home. Go figure. Now - you can see what I'm wearing in the Facebook post. Note the caption.....how ironic as it turns out. Why? As it turns out, after the day's results were in the "Racing action from coast to coast" was most prophetic because even though it's the Gulfstream Winter Championship Meet that I love to be at and bet on, I cashed a single solitary ticket at Gulfstream....but I had a near-40% winning day because of my success out of town! I had handicapped the racing cards from Tampa Bay Downs, from Laurel Park in Maryland, the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, and from Aqueduct in New York. I also had two late-afternoon bets from Santa Anita. I tried to be "picky" in the selections from out of town, but I was also cognizant that today was NOT going to be a day where I found a lot of strong plays. Didn't cash a ticket in New Orleans, but I only had two plays, and also lost both bets at Santa Anita despite both being odds-on favorites. The other tracks were most fruitful:
So here is how the day unfolded......my top choice in the opener at Gulfstream scratched. In the second race we were off the turf but my pick had run super last time out in an off-the-turf event. He was sent off as the 9/5 choice and he looked to come rolling from the back of the pack. Sure enough through the first quarter mile he was last, but not an extraordinary distance back. Began to swallow up ground until a 30/1 outsider shifted in on him and he had to check sharply losing at least half a dozen lengths with only a half mile to go. No chance. Was absolutely flying late to be second - would have won for fun, but not today. In the third there were two Todd Pletcher first time starters. I liked Ellis Island but he was NOT being well bet. The other was odds-on and I briefly considered making a change in bets and/or betting them both. But I finally decided to stick with what I had originally planned. Came FLYING late to be a sharp third at 5/1 odds while the odds-on Pletcher horse was life and death to hold on. Missed with my fourth selection at Aqueduct when my choice ran 3rd at 5/2. I was "ok" with that because the winner was 2/5 and I'd NEVER have bet him as a 12x maiden. The third at Laurel was next up. John Jones had a lot to like about him and was one of the Laurel analyst's best bet. First, he was a "Horse for the Course" with a 9-for-26 record at Laurel. Then, and I get it you can make numbers say "anything," but filtering out by distance, 'John was 9-for-16 at this mile trip and 0-for-10 at all other distances at Laurel. And he was just 2-for-16 at all other race tracks. So for John Jones AT Laurel, AT one mile - that is where he wins. Add in that he was dropping out of a stakes race when best-of-the-rest second behind a multiple stakes winning horse who had earned a 102 Beyer with the win AND had come back to win another stakes last weekend. John Jones pressed the pace and forged to the front into the lane. But the Laurel stretch seems to go on forever and a price horse was coming.........where's the wire? HOLDS ON!
The best news on the first winner of the day, somehow in spite of all the angles listed above, he went off at more than 2/1. The $6.40 payoff meant that in spite of starting the day 1-for-4 I was back to nearly even :) About ten minutes later I was in my seat for the fourth at Gulfstream. This was a Maiden Special for 3yo on the turf. As I scanned the field here's what I thought: First, the first time starters did not appeal and didn't have connections that would make them appealing. Of the five others, four had run nearly identical Beyer figures: 71, 71, 73, and 73. How to separate them? There WAS a Todd Pletcher runner, but it bothered me that NONE of the regular go-to riders had agreed to ride him. Risky, but I'll pass. The likely favorite had finished a sharp third in his debut, then last time out was 2nd beaten merely a nose. But today he was adding blinkers. WHAT? Why would you make an equipment change on a lightly raced horse who's obviously running well. Put that with his outside draw and he was also a pass. Of the other two I liked the Chad Brown runner, Vintage Print. The "issue" was that he'd never been on the turf and he'd run poorly on dirt last time. Brown is well known for his work with turf runners, why didn't this one start on turf? Still, considering who the others were and what they brought to the table that was my pick. I was surprised that throughout the betting he hovered around 7/1. Am I that off? Again I considered changing, but thought, "No, I was 'right' about the price Pletcher horse even though he didn't win." Stuck with it. The newly-blinkered favorite got over quickly and was the pace setter, but Vintage Print was in a close stalking position. Right away I thought, if he's good enough he will have a good chance. Came a little wide into the lane but at the furlong pole you could tell I had all the momentum and edged clear through the final 16th. The final odds, 5/1 and I'd doubled the bet!
First win at Gulfstream and I'm cashing for $60, whooo hooo. I ran 2nd and 3rd at the Fair Grounds and Tampa before it was time for Race 5 at Laurel. When I look at a race I scan through the past performances and what I'm looking for are the best Beyer figures, horses on the drop, and runners with strong human connections. After the first run through I'm hoping I have a good idea of who SHOULD be the favorite and if they are a logical winner, a play against, or an "I can't figure" which would lead to a pass of the race. In this starter-optional claiming event the two program favorites were OBVIOUS "no bets" for me. The favorite had not been seen since April and the barn was 0-for-11 with long layoffs and the program second choice was 1-for-18 at Laurel with two seconds and eight thirds....he obviously doesn't like to win. Then there was Bullets Child. He was lightly raced with only three starts. He'd been a best-of-the-rest 2nd in debut, clear of the show by nearly a dozen lengths and earned a strong 72 Beyer. Came right back to break his maiden for $50K. Then he was 2nd beaten half a length in his first against winners while daylight clear of the show. I could see how someone would be hesitant because he too came off a long layoff. But unlike the other one, the barn was a sharp 20% with layoff runners AND Bullets Child had worked multiple bullet workouts for his return. AND he was listed at 6/1 in the program. That's for me. Right to the front and wired the field!
The 3/1 price paid $8.80 and I'd cash for almost $45. I had collected the payout on John Jones when making the next sequence of bets so now I'd cash the Vintage Print ticket and this one for over $100 on these two wins alone :) My next came at Tampa where it was an entry level allowance event on the turf. Again, I could see why you'd not like Serve The King who had only one race, a debut win with a big number. BUT, that number beat everything anyone else had earned, and it had been over this course back in December. Most important, 'King was trained by Chad Brown. Oh. Given plenty of time to recoup and getting top local jockey Antonio Gallardo he looked best. Rallied on the turn and swept by in the final furlong to win going away at even money. And right back moments later with the first of four consecutive wins in New York when Bertranda wired a claiming event. Missed on the next four before the very next race on the Aqueduct card which was a non-winners of two lifetime event. You COULD NOT have a lot of confidence in Septimius Severus as he was plunging in class for this, but the other in the field looked worse. Top rider Manny Franco took the call and that made me feel better. Wired the field and paid a nice $6.60 so even with a minimum bet I cashed for over $15. Missed AGAIN at Gulfstream then it was time for the next at Aqueduct. Jerry The Nipper was a Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden. In his debut he had chased a loose-on-the-lead winner who aired by daylight. But, 'Jerry was five lengths in front of the rest of the field, and the stretch to a one-turn mile seemed to be in his benefit. He dueled on the lead with the other well-bet horse then had a lot left in reserve as he drew off by over half a dozen lengths.
My "best" of the day at Gulfstream, and EVERYONE's BEST of the Day came in the featured Grade 3 World of Trouble Sprint. Lasting Legacy had last been seen when a best-of-the-rest 2nd in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector behind a horse who'd been a Breeders' Cup contender in November. But what made him the obvious choice was that of the 144 combined races run by the rest of the field, there was one triple digit number (and that had been earned in Sept 2018).....Lasting Legacy had posted back-to-back-to-back triple digits. Duh. The gates opened and immediately the 4/5 favorite hopped in the air and spotted the field well over half a dozen lengths. Sigh....even with a horse that's daylight better than the rest AND a finisher, that's a lot to ask. Was flying late and got fourth - WOULD have won for fun. Sigh..... Next up was the eighth from Tampa, the Lightning City Stakes. I had bet Girls Know Best in her last two and she'd run second both times, but today I thought she'd get loose on the front end even though she was facing the filly who'd run her down last time, Jean Elizabeth. But my pick scratched. I looked at the field and payoffs and it seemed obvious that this race went strictly through Jean Elizabeth now. Held my double investment level and put it on that filly. Right to the front and won as the favorite - well done Mr. Mark!
I thought for SURE I had the winner in Gulfstream's 10th as Todd Pletcher's Largent was running in an allowance field on the turf. Analyst Jason Blewitt, who also picked him had said he had been surprised this impressive colt had not been entered in a Grade 3 last weekend. Had the lead at even money turning for home but was outfinished in a photo by a 30/1 longshot. Wow. Look at the past performances for Mr. Buff, entered in the featured Haynesfield Stakes at Aqueduct:
A most obvious choice. Toss the three filtered graded tries and he's 8-for-9 with a loss by 3/4 of a length. Now consider that his "paired" figures of 100-101 in his last two - in and of themselves indicative of a move forward - were better than the combined 107 race figures earned by his rivals. AND he features a local record of 7-for-11. Oh. Right to the front and seemed to be in hand when he had about a length lead midway on the turn. Then he lengthened his stride.....
Yowza. If you're going to bet a horse at 1/5 (and to be fair, I could care less about the price, I bet the winner of the race....or at least who I think will win), that's the kind of result you're expecting. Lost the final three plays, two of them at Santa Anita. Exalted had run 2nd to Bob Baffert's Nadal who had returned to win the Grade 2 San Vicente. He was 4/5 but had nothing left in the lane, third. And Brad Free's BEST at Santa Anita was Jolie Olimpica in the Grade 3 Buena Vista. The unbeaten filly had earned a number in her North American debut that was double digits faster than anything anyone else had earned. And that had come at a distance she probably didn't like as well as today's one mile trip. LONG gone I thought. And 1-2 odds were fair. Caught on the wire by a runner nearly 40/1. Wow. Still, for the day I finished 9-for-25 (36%) and had a great day (and was comfortable in my chosen attire!)
Sunday February 23
As the final day of the short racing week opened I had seven selections on the eleven race card, with one of them being a "prime time" play, the "Bet of the Weekend." The one thing you could say about the card in general was that there were a LOT of future stars starting today in maiden races as all the 3yo maiden special events seems to have multiple big-time quality thoroughbreds. The opener drew the comment in my analysis that IF there wasn't a Todd Pletcher runner in the field - because it's the Championship Meet - I'd probably pass the race. I went with Cat Lady despite the post 11 draw. She WOULD have won in spite of that, but heading into the first turn where she probably would have been three-four wide, she was bumped hard by a 7/1 outsider who finished eighth. So much of a bump that it not only knocked her into the six path but jockey Irad Ortiz lost his iron for several strides. To his credit he recovered, got her into position and made a good run of it to lose by a mere half a length. Easily the winner without that trouble. My "BEST" was in the third, but my pick scratched. "Everyone" liked the obvious second choice but I didn't.... it was a most remarkable race because that favorite missed the start by nearly half a dozen lengths then was checked sharply, taking up into the stretch. Still, switched out and ran by them all. AND this was in a five furlong turf sprint. Just an amazing run by the winner. Hats off to her. In the fourth, it was another of the maiden 3yo races and this turf event had not one but two Chad Brown firsters. I didn't like any of the ones with experience but they ran 1-2. I was third, the "other Brown" filly was fourth. Passed the fifth. In the sixth it was another quality collection of three-year-old maiden fillies and again two Chad Brown runners I liked Linny Kate in spite of the eleven post. Irad Ortiz looked hopeless beaten at the furlong pole in fourth after rallying to get that close, but once in the clear she found another gear and was up in time at a nice $8.80 payoff.
I was irritated (a) that I only had the minimum play on her but more so that (b) of ALL the winners today this one, Linny Kate was the ONLY one who's winning photo was not posted anywhere. How is THAT possible? Finished in the money in the next two races and then it was time for my final bet of the day. Remember on Friday my "best" of the day was Saffie Joseph's Flora Fantasy who was a "Main Track Only?" When that stayed on the turf he entered him in this entry level allowance sprint. All the same angles applied, most especially that he was first off the claim, a 41% winning move for the barn. When he was in the back, but only five off the front I wasn't worried because I've seen many Saffie Joseph runners come flying late. Sure enough he moved wide on the turn under top rider Irad Ortiz and won going away for fun. Best part.....I'd upped the bet to make HIM the "prime time" play of the day. Whooo hooo - another winning day as I finished 2-for-6 with a flat bet profit.
Next week my buddy Keith (and his niece or nieces) will be in town for the big weekend of racing - it's Fountain of Youth Day, the final step on the road to the Florida Derby!
Towards the middle of our dinner I pulled up the last race on the day on my phone. The day's finale was a 3yo maiden claiming event on the turf going a mile with a $25K price tag. There wasn't a lot to choose from, but one of the more predictable angles in handicapping is when a thoroughbred runs "paired" figures. That very often is indicative of a move forward and today Gea had done that. As I said in my analysis, a 50 Beyer won't win any stakes races, but the fact that she'd paired these numbers and that both would beat thirty-three of the combined thirty-five figures earned by the rest of the field was a strong indicator of a win candidate. Add in top rider Irad Ortiz was taking the mount and you can see why I put my money on her. She broke from the rail and was quickly tenth of twelve into the first turn. Ortiz asked for run approaching the far turn and she began picking off runners. Three-to-five wide into the stretch she lengthened her stride and drew off to kick clear by daylight. Much like Catharsis I was pleased that somehow she'd been allowed to leave the gate at what I thought was a generous 5/2 price. Cashed for $35. And suddenly, after spending the entire day getting nothing for my handicapping, in a span of about forty minutes the day had become a good 33% winning one with a flat bet profit.
Saturday February 22
Today was THE most unusual day of the week for racing results. As I handicapped for the Saturday at the races I had several factors to consider. First, there wasn't a single racing venue that was having a "big stakes" day, so I'd be playing largely maiden, claiming, and allowance events - typically a little less predictable and lacking a "prime time" bet; second, the weather for South Florida was not only supposed to be chilly as it had been on Friday evening, but the forecast called for a "40% chance of passing showers throughout the day." What to wear? I know, that sounds so trivial but if I'm going to be spending the day outside, that's important. Seemed like it would be coolish with a good breeze so I planned on a sweater. But Friday night it was really COLD. Maybe a sweatshirt and/or jacket. Saturday morning it was gloomy and rainy, so maybe toss that idea, I need to wear my Breeders' Cup weatherproof jacket. An hour later it was mostly clear skies, sunny and actually warm. Put the jacket away, got out a polo shirt. An hour later it was overcast, cool, and very breezy. Opted for the original idea of a sweater with long-sleeve t-shirt and took my hat just in case it was raining. I left for Gulfstream about 10:45 and right away it was drizzling. By the time I got to the Interstate it was a full-out rain. All the way to within a couple of miles of Gulfstream, then the skies opened up and the sun came out. Didn't rain a drop at the track, but it was partly-to-mostly cloudy and a good breeze. Very "chilly" for a Florida boy, especially in the shade, so I was glad I opted for the sweater. When I went to leave, within a mile of Gulfstream it started raining again and rained all the way to within about five miles of home. Go figure. Now - you can see what I'm wearing in the Facebook post. Note the caption.....how ironic as it turns out. Why? As it turns out, after the day's results were in the "Racing action from coast to coast" was most prophetic because even though it's the Gulfstream Winter Championship Meet that I love to be at and bet on, I cashed a single solitary ticket at Gulfstream....but I had a near-40% winning day because of my success out of town! I had handicapped the racing cards from Tampa Bay Downs, from Laurel Park in Maryland, the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, and from Aqueduct in New York. I also had two late-afternoon bets from Santa Anita. I tried to be "picky" in the selections from out of town, but I was also cognizant that today was NOT going to be a day where I found a lot of strong plays. Didn't cash a ticket in New Orleans, but I only had two plays, and also lost both bets at Santa Anita despite both being odds-on favorites. The other tracks were most fruitful:
So here is how the day unfolded......my top choice in the opener at Gulfstream scratched. In the second race we were off the turf but my pick had run super last time out in an off-the-turf event. He was sent off as the 9/5 choice and he looked to come rolling from the back of the pack. Sure enough through the first quarter mile he was last, but not an extraordinary distance back. Began to swallow up ground until a 30/1 outsider shifted in on him and he had to check sharply losing at least half a dozen lengths with only a half mile to go. No chance. Was absolutely flying late to be second - would have won for fun, but not today. In the third there were two Todd Pletcher first time starters. I liked Ellis Island but he was NOT being well bet. The other was odds-on and I briefly considered making a change in bets and/or betting them both. But I finally decided to stick with what I had originally planned. Came FLYING late to be a sharp third at 5/1 odds while the odds-on Pletcher horse was life and death to hold on. Missed with my fourth selection at Aqueduct when my choice ran 3rd at 5/2. I was "ok" with that because the winner was 2/5 and I'd NEVER have bet him as a 12x maiden. The third at Laurel was next up. John Jones had a lot to like about him and was one of the Laurel analyst's best bet. First, he was a "Horse for the Course" with a 9-for-26 record at Laurel. Then, and I get it you can make numbers say "anything," but filtering out by distance, 'John was 9-for-16 at this mile trip and 0-for-10 at all other distances at Laurel. And he was just 2-for-16 at all other race tracks. So for John Jones AT Laurel, AT one mile - that is where he wins. Add in that he was dropping out of a stakes race when best-of-the-rest second behind a multiple stakes winning horse who had earned a 102 Beyer with the win AND had come back to win another stakes last weekend. John Jones pressed the pace and forged to the front into the lane. But the Laurel stretch seems to go on forever and a price horse was coming.........where's the wire? HOLDS ON!
The best news on the first winner of the day, somehow in spite of all the angles listed above, he went off at more than 2/1. The $6.40 payoff meant that in spite of starting the day 1-for-4 I was back to nearly even :) About ten minutes later I was in my seat for the fourth at Gulfstream. This was a Maiden Special for 3yo on the turf. As I scanned the field here's what I thought: First, the first time starters did not appeal and didn't have connections that would make them appealing. Of the five others, four had run nearly identical Beyer figures: 71, 71, 73, and 73. How to separate them? There WAS a Todd Pletcher runner, but it bothered me that NONE of the regular go-to riders had agreed to ride him. Risky, but I'll pass. The likely favorite had finished a sharp third in his debut, then last time out was 2nd beaten merely a nose. But today he was adding blinkers. WHAT? Why would you make an equipment change on a lightly raced horse who's obviously running well. Put that with his outside draw and he was also a pass. Of the other two I liked the Chad Brown runner, Vintage Print. The "issue" was that he'd never been on the turf and he'd run poorly on dirt last time. Brown is well known for his work with turf runners, why didn't this one start on turf? Still, considering who the others were and what they brought to the table that was my pick. I was surprised that throughout the betting he hovered around 7/1. Am I that off? Again I considered changing, but thought, "No, I was 'right' about the price Pletcher horse even though he didn't win." Stuck with it. The newly-blinkered favorite got over quickly and was the pace setter, but Vintage Print was in a close stalking position. Right away I thought, if he's good enough he will have a good chance. Came a little wide into the lane but at the furlong pole you could tell I had all the momentum and edged clear through the final 16th. The final odds, 5/1 and I'd doubled the bet!
Cashing "the big one" at Gulfstream today
First win at Gulfstream and I'm cashing for $60, whooo hooo. I ran 2nd and 3rd at the Fair Grounds and Tampa before it was time for Race 5 at Laurel. When I look at a race I scan through the past performances and what I'm looking for are the best Beyer figures, horses on the drop, and runners with strong human connections. After the first run through I'm hoping I have a good idea of who SHOULD be the favorite and if they are a logical winner, a play against, or an "I can't figure" which would lead to a pass of the race. In this starter-optional claiming event the two program favorites were OBVIOUS "no bets" for me. The favorite had not been seen since April and the barn was 0-for-11 with long layoffs and the program second choice was 1-for-18 at Laurel with two seconds and eight thirds....he obviously doesn't like to win. Then there was Bullets Child. He was lightly raced with only three starts. He'd been a best-of-the-rest 2nd in debut, clear of the show by nearly a dozen lengths and earned a strong 72 Beyer. Came right back to break his maiden for $50K. Then he was 2nd beaten half a length in his first against winners while daylight clear of the show. I could see how someone would be hesitant because he too came off a long layoff. But unlike the other one, the barn was a sharp 20% with layoff runners AND Bullets Child had worked multiple bullet workouts for his return. AND he was listed at 6/1 in the program. That's for me. Right to the front and wired the field!
The 3/1 price paid $8.80 and I'd cash for almost $45. I had collected the payout on John Jones when making the next sequence of bets so now I'd cash the Vintage Print ticket and this one for over $100 on these two wins alone :) My next came at Tampa where it was an entry level allowance event on the turf. Again, I could see why you'd not like Serve The King who had only one race, a debut win with a big number. BUT, that number beat everything anyone else had earned, and it had been over this course back in December. Most important, 'King was trained by Chad Brown. Oh. Given plenty of time to recoup and getting top local jockey Antonio Gallardo he looked best. Rallied on the turn and swept by in the final furlong to win going away at even money. And right back moments later with the first of four consecutive wins in New York when Bertranda wired a claiming event. Missed on the next four before the very next race on the Aqueduct card which was a non-winners of two lifetime event. You COULD NOT have a lot of confidence in Septimius Severus as he was plunging in class for this, but the other in the field looked worse. Top rider Manny Franco took the call and that made me feel better. Wired the field and paid a nice $6.60 so even with a minimum bet I cashed for over $15. Missed AGAIN at Gulfstream then it was time for the next at Aqueduct. Jerry The Nipper was a Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden. In his debut he had chased a loose-on-the-lead winner who aired by daylight. But, 'Jerry was five lengths in front of the rest of the field, and the stretch to a one-turn mile seemed to be in his benefit. He dueled on the lead with the other well-bet horse then had a lot left in reserve as he drew off by over half a dozen lengths.
My "best" of the day at Gulfstream, and EVERYONE's BEST of the Day came in the featured Grade 3 World of Trouble Sprint. Lasting Legacy had last been seen when a best-of-the-rest 2nd in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector behind a horse who'd been a Breeders' Cup contender in November. But what made him the obvious choice was that of the 144 combined races run by the rest of the field, there was one triple digit number (and that had been earned in Sept 2018).....Lasting Legacy had posted back-to-back-to-back triple digits. Duh. The gates opened and immediately the 4/5 favorite hopped in the air and spotted the field well over half a dozen lengths. Sigh....even with a horse that's daylight better than the rest AND a finisher, that's a lot to ask. Was flying late and got fourth - WOULD have won for fun. Sigh..... Next up was the eighth from Tampa, the Lightning City Stakes. I had bet Girls Know Best in her last two and she'd run second both times, but today I thought she'd get loose on the front end even though she was facing the filly who'd run her down last time, Jean Elizabeth. But my pick scratched. I looked at the field and payoffs and it seemed obvious that this race went strictly through Jean Elizabeth now. Held my double investment level and put it on that filly. Right to the front and won as the favorite - well done Mr. Mark!
I thought for SURE I had the winner in Gulfstream's 10th as Todd Pletcher's Largent was running in an allowance field on the turf. Analyst Jason Blewitt, who also picked him had said he had been surprised this impressive colt had not been entered in a Grade 3 last weekend. Had the lead at even money turning for home but was outfinished in a photo by a 30/1 longshot. Wow. Look at the past performances for Mr. Buff, entered in the featured Haynesfield Stakes at Aqueduct:
A most obvious choice. Toss the three filtered graded tries and he's 8-for-9 with a loss by 3/4 of a length. Now consider that his "paired" figures of 100-101 in his last two - in and of themselves indicative of a move forward - were better than the combined 107 race figures earned by his rivals. AND he features a local record of 7-for-11. Oh. Right to the front and seemed to be in hand when he had about a length lead midway on the turn. Then he lengthened his stride.....
Yowza. If you're going to bet a horse at 1/5 (and to be fair, I could care less about the price, I bet the winner of the race....or at least who I think will win), that's the kind of result you're expecting. Lost the final three plays, two of them at Santa Anita. Exalted had run 2nd to Bob Baffert's Nadal who had returned to win the Grade 2 San Vicente. He was 4/5 but had nothing left in the lane, third. And Brad Free's BEST at Santa Anita was Jolie Olimpica in the Grade 3 Buena Vista. The unbeaten filly had earned a number in her North American debut that was double digits faster than anything anyone else had earned. And that had come at a distance she probably didn't like as well as today's one mile trip. LONG gone I thought. And 1-2 odds were fair. Caught on the wire by a runner nearly 40/1. Wow. Still, for the day I finished 9-for-25 (36%) and had a great day (and was comfortable in my chosen attire!)
February 22 Racing Highlights
Sunday February 23
As the final day of the short racing week opened I had seven selections on the eleven race card, with one of them being a "prime time" play, the "Bet of the Weekend." The one thing you could say about the card in general was that there were a LOT of future stars starting today in maiden races as all the 3yo maiden special events seems to have multiple big-time quality thoroughbreds. The opener drew the comment in my analysis that IF there wasn't a Todd Pletcher runner in the field - because it's the Championship Meet - I'd probably pass the race. I went with Cat Lady despite the post 11 draw. She WOULD have won in spite of that, but heading into the first turn where she probably would have been three-four wide, she was bumped hard by a 7/1 outsider who finished eighth. So much of a bump that it not only knocked her into the six path but jockey Irad Ortiz lost his iron for several strides. To his credit he recovered, got her into position and made a good run of it to lose by a mere half a length. Easily the winner without that trouble. My "BEST" was in the third, but my pick scratched. "Everyone" liked the obvious second choice but I didn't.... it was a most remarkable race because that favorite missed the start by nearly half a dozen lengths then was checked sharply, taking up into the stretch. Still, switched out and ran by them all. AND this was in a five furlong turf sprint. Just an amazing run by the winner. Hats off to her. In the fourth, it was another of the maiden 3yo races and this turf event had not one but two Chad Brown firsters. I didn't like any of the ones with experience but they ran 1-2. I was third, the "other Brown" filly was fourth. Passed the fifth. In the sixth it was another quality collection of three-year-old maiden fillies and again two Chad Brown runners I liked Linny Kate in spite of the eleven post. Irad Ortiz looked hopeless beaten at the furlong pole in fourth after rallying to get that close, but once in the clear she found another gear and was up in time at a nice $8.80 payoff.
I was irritated (a) that I only had the minimum play on her but more so that (b) of ALL the winners today this one, Linny Kate was the ONLY one who's winning photo was not posted anywhere. How is THAT possible? Finished in the money in the next two races and then it was time for my final bet of the day. Remember on Friday my "best" of the day was Saffie Joseph's Flora Fantasy who was a "Main Track Only?" When that stayed on the turf he entered him in this entry level allowance sprint. All the same angles applied, most especially that he was first off the claim, a 41% winning move for the barn. When he was in the back, but only five off the front I wasn't worried because I've seen many Saffie Joseph runners come flying late. Sure enough he moved wide on the turn under top rider Irad Ortiz and won going away for fun. Best part.....I'd upped the bet to make HIM the "prime time" play of the day. Whooo hooo - another winning day as I finished 2-for-6 with a flat bet profit.
Next week my buddy Keith (and his niece or nieces) will be in town for the big weekend of racing - it's Fountain of Youth Day, the final step on the road to the Florida Derby!
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