February 12 - 17
Well it should tell you something about the week that this Saturday was Louisiana Derby Preview Day with a stakes laden card and that did NOT make the headlines for this week. As handicapping weeks go, this was one of the least successful of the winter. I had forty-four selections over the six day racing week and only had nine wins. Ouch. The good news is that I DID win the BEST Bet of the week, and even better news is that I KNOW as sure as I'm sitting here that by the end of the month or at least the winter season I'll have a run of high win percentage success which will even my overall win percent back to the consistent 35% plus level.
Wednesday-Thursday-Friday (Valentines Day)
On Wednesday I had four selections and I was close, but had nothing to show for it. Ran 2nd twice, third and fourth. Thursday rolled around and I was sure today my numbers would bounce back. But as the fortunes of racing would have it I ran fourth twice, third, and did get the first win of the week... but that came with the smallest bet of the day with a 9/5 favorite. But hey, a win is a win.
Friday, Valentines Day saw Kim and I headed out for Orlando to be able to reach Oliver's school in time for a Valentines Cookie Decorating Party. So I made my bets before we left and checked the results later. The "Little Man" was so excited to see his Grandma & Grandpa. Decorated cookies with his Mom along and then headed back to his house for an afternoon of play.
Later that afternoon I was able to watch my BEST BET run live from Tampa. The sixth from Tampa featured Todd Pletcher's Gouverneur Morris. To be fair, I'd not heard of this 3yo colt before reading about him online earlier in the week. He'd broken his maiden in sensational style in his August debut at Saratoga then came back to run 2nd to Maxfield in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. Maxfield had been one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile before having to scratch the week of the race. In the article I read the connections had wanted to begin the 3yo season with a race in allowance company at Gulfstream, but when it didn't fill they contacted Tampa and they carded this race around two turns at one-mile-and-forty-yards. As I opened the live feed with seven minutes to post time Gouverneur Morris was the prohibitive 1/9 favorite. In just a five horse field I expected as much and I thought that if I could get 1/5 it would be a fair bet. Because the connections had further said that if he ran to expectations today they would look for one of the big, final Derby preps that offered 100 points and an automatic spot in the Kentucky Derby. Somehow as the horses moved to the gate my best bet had his odds not only float to 1/5, but then to 2/5 and then remarkably to 1/2. Are you serious? I know it's a horse race but there's no way, especially in a five horse field, that he should pay $3. Right out of the gate one of the colts stumbled and lost the rider. Little did I know that the strategy for Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez had been to stalk THAT one, who was the likely pace-setter. Now it was time to improvise. Rather than let the second choice get loose on the lead Velazquez got his colt into a pressing position on the outside. He had to ask him to run on the turn but when he leveled off he drew off with authority. As he crossed the line the track announcer called out that the final time was just .02 off the track record. WOWZA! Cashing for $30 on the BET of the Week was indeed one of the highlights of the week.
I also got a winner at Gulfstream when in the eighth race with Frank's Legacy. Under normal circumstances a handicapper would be suspicious when a horse like this was exiting a win for $16K and was claimed, only to be entered first off the claim for $12.5K. But owner Frank Calabrese, along with trainer Saffie Joseph are "famous" for this kind of move. They spot their horses where they can win, and if they lose them via the claim, they just go get another one. And if you did the math here, this was a smart move. A win would earn $15K, and if he's claimed for $12.5K that generates an income of $27.5K for an investment of $16K. Duh. Frank's Legacy tracked the leader to the lane, got his head in front then outfinished him to the wire.
Saturday February 15: Disney Day
I made my bets for both Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds this morning because after Oliver got up from his nap we set out for Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom. We were there for almost five hours and enjoyed the time with the grandson oh-so-much (and with his Mom & Dad). Once we got home I pulled up the races and watched the replays, hopeful for a big day at the races. For a Saturday I found the card at Gulfstream pretty mediocre. I had six selections from the eleven races but there was a lot of weather causing the later races to come off the turf, and one of picks scratched so I lost my top pick. In the opener, on the turf I knew Todd Pletcher's Tap Memories would face an uphill climb from post 12. Ran credibly to be a fading sixth at 5/1. Won the next with my one minimum play on the card when Pango was the "class" play in an $8K starter. He'd won at $12.5K and $16K after beating $8K runners last winter. Edged clear late as the even money favorite.
Liked another Pletcher runner in the third, didn't like the favorite who was no where to be found. On the turn Rag Tag came to the third choice and I thought here we go! But it was the 3rd choice that went on with it and I was just a best-of-the-rest second. Passed the fourth and I was fortunate to have the winner in the fifth, a 3yo Maiden Special going six furlongs. Why fortunate? Because there were two Todd Pletcher runners and I liked Gallantry. But in the morning when I made my bets he'd already scratched, so I went with the other one Money Moves. While Gallantry was a $160K sales grad, Money Moves had pulled nearly $1 Million at the sales auction, but John Velazquez was listed on the former. I was fortunate that Gallantry was an early scratch so I got to make the change. Jockey Luis Saez had to work on Money Moves from the time they entered the far turn, but his persistence paid off as he drew off late to give me my second, and final win at GP.
I was second best in the Grade 3 Royal Delta to end the day in So Fla. On to New Orleans. In the opener I was loose on the lead over the firm turf course on a sunny day. But faded to sixth through the stretch. Passed two races then was 2nd at 4/5; was 2nd at 2/1 when I couldn't catch the 20/1 front runner. So let me get this straight - I've GOT the lead and can't hold on, then when I've got the finisher I can't catch the longshot leader? Yep, that's right. In the 7th, a maiden event I liked Chrystal Sphere despite the post eleven draw based on his bullet work. Pressed the leader through the turn, drifted wide into the lane to lose ground, but re-broke and came back to wear him down for the win. The generous $8 payoff helped salvage some of the betting money lost.
Missed in the next stakes on the turf when I made a sweeping move then hung. In the Grade 3 Mineshaft I had won with Silver Dust in the prep for this but went against him today - he won. In the Gr 3 Fair Grounds on the turf I ran in the middle of the pack. In the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra for 3yo fillies, I'd had Finite in the prep, the Silverbulletday. But I went with BC Juvenile Filly champion British Idiom who's trainer had been quoted that he expected her to run BIG today. No, Finite who'd barely hung on in the S'day at a shorter distance was TONS the best today. Closed the day with back-to-back thirds in the two divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star, the latter at a big 11/1 and I really thought turning for home I might hang on. But, not today.
Sunday - Monday
Sunday after all the rain I had one and one only pick left. In the opener Chad Brown's first time starter Union Maiden was the 4/5 favorite. Completely missed the break. Figures....sigh. The special Monday holiday card featured TEN starter stakes for $60 to $75K and I had several selections. I was also playing the Oaklawn card which featured three graded stakes. At Gulfstream in the first High Noon Rider was making his move up the backstretch on the inside when he clipped heels and fell to last, that was that. In the third I broke last and was lucky to get third. In the fourth the public liked Liza Star who was a speedy sort on the rail. But I thought she'd have company so I went with I'll Take Cake who was making her first start for trainer Saffie Joseph with Tyler Gafflione on board. Unfortunately the closer it got to post time the more money came in on my pick. Not enough to make her the favorite, but she still was only 6/5 when the gates opened. Still third as heads turned for home she found another gear and drew off to win the Lady Bird Stakes.
Came right back in the fifth with Queen Of God in the Mrs. Presidentress Stakes on the turf. But she was only a minimum bet. The $7.40 payoff would have been generous if I'd gambled more.
Nowhere to be found at 9/1 in the sixth, then in the eighth I had the 3/5 favorite in Disc Jockey. Another Saffie Joseph runner he cruised up to the 70/1 longshot front runner as they turned for home and then.....couldn't get by. WOW, what a week. The winner paid $153.20 for a $2 bet, I was a best of the rest second. And in the finale at Gulfstream Muggsamatic was the 7/5 favorite and got to the front turning for home, let's accelerate and get this one home I thought....ran evenly and caught in the shadow of the wire by the 7/2 second choice. At Oaklawn went 1-for-3 in the stakes action. To be honest I liked my chances in the two stakes I lost, but they were far from solid selections. In the one I won, the Grade 3 Bayakoa Go Google Yourself tracked favored Whoa Nellie, who I did NOT like into the lane. The two put on a real show to the final fifty yards when 'Google edged clear to win. An exciting race and with the 2/1 odds I cashed for over $30 to again salvage some of the day.
No one is more adorable than my grandson and I say that openly - even if he wasn't my grandson I'd say that. In the video below you see three clips. In the first he reads to me, the story of "Peter Pan." Then in the short second clip he reads to Kim and I from her favorite book for kids, "Don't Turn The Page." And the final nine minutes is Oliver's first time ever on Disney's Jungle Cruise ride. He obviously loved the experience - and especially to be with Grandma and Grandpa.
Liked another Pletcher runner in the third, didn't like the favorite who was no where to be found. On the turn Rag Tag came to the third choice and I thought here we go! But it was the 3rd choice that went on with it and I was just a best-of-the-rest second. Passed the fourth and I was fortunate to have the winner in the fifth, a 3yo Maiden Special going six furlongs. Why fortunate? Because there were two Todd Pletcher runners and I liked Gallantry. But in the morning when I made my bets he'd already scratched, so I went with the other one Money Moves. While Gallantry was a $160K sales grad, Money Moves had pulled nearly $1 Million at the sales auction, but John Velazquez was listed on the former. I was fortunate that Gallantry was an early scratch so I got to make the change. Jockey Luis Saez had to work on Money Moves from the time they entered the far turn, but his persistence paid off as he drew off late to give me my second, and final win at GP.
I was second best in the Grade 3 Royal Delta to end the day in So Fla. On to New Orleans. In the opener I was loose on the lead over the firm turf course on a sunny day. But faded to sixth through the stretch. Passed two races then was 2nd at 4/5; was 2nd at 2/1 when I couldn't catch the 20/1 front runner. So let me get this straight - I've GOT the lead and can't hold on, then when I've got the finisher I can't catch the longshot leader? Yep, that's right. In the 7th, a maiden event I liked Chrystal Sphere despite the post eleven draw based on his bullet work. Pressed the leader through the turn, drifted wide into the lane to lose ground, but re-broke and came back to wear him down for the win. The generous $8 payoff helped salvage some of the betting money lost.
Missed in the next stakes on the turf when I made a sweeping move then hung. In the Grade 3 Mineshaft I had won with Silver Dust in the prep for this but went against him today - he won. In the Gr 3 Fair Grounds on the turf I ran in the middle of the pack. In the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra for 3yo fillies, I'd had Finite in the prep, the Silverbulletday. But I went with BC Juvenile Filly champion British Idiom who's trainer had been quoted that he expected her to run BIG today. No, Finite who'd barely hung on in the S'day at a shorter distance was TONS the best today. Closed the day with back-to-back thirds in the two divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star, the latter at a big 11/1 and I really thought turning for home I might hang on. But, not today.
Sunday - Monday
Sunday after all the rain I had one and one only pick left. In the opener Chad Brown's first time starter Union Maiden was the 4/5 favorite. Completely missed the break. Figures....sigh. The special Monday holiday card featured TEN starter stakes for $60 to $75K and I had several selections. I was also playing the Oaklawn card which featured three graded stakes. At Gulfstream in the first High Noon Rider was making his move up the backstretch on the inside when he clipped heels and fell to last, that was that. In the third I broke last and was lucky to get third. In the fourth the public liked Liza Star who was a speedy sort on the rail. But I thought she'd have company so I went with I'll Take Cake who was making her first start for trainer Saffie Joseph with Tyler Gafflione on board. Unfortunately the closer it got to post time the more money came in on my pick. Not enough to make her the favorite, but she still was only 6/5 when the gates opened. Still third as heads turned for home she found another gear and drew off to win the Lady Bird Stakes.
Came right back in the fifth with Queen Of God in the Mrs. Presidentress Stakes on the turf. But she was only a minimum bet. The $7.40 payoff would have been generous if I'd gambled more.
Nowhere to be found at 9/1 in the sixth, then in the eighth I had the 3/5 favorite in Disc Jockey. Another Saffie Joseph runner he cruised up to the 70/1 longshot front runner as they turned for home and then.....couldn't get by. WOW, what a week. The winner paid $153.20 for a $2 bet, I was a best of the rest second. And in the finale at Gulfstream Muggsamatic was the 7/5 favorite and got to the front turning for home, let's accelerate and get this one home I thought....ran evenly and caught in the shadow of the wire by the 7/2 second choice. At Oaklawn went 1-for-3 in the stakes action. To be honest I liked my chances in the two stakes I lost, but they were far from solid selections. In the one I won, the Grade 3 Bayakoa Go Google Yourself tracked favored Whoa Nellie, who I did NOT like into the lane. The two put on a real show to the final fifty yards when 'Google edged clear to win. An exciting race and with the 2/1 odds I cashed for over $30 to again salvage some of the day.
No one is more adorable than my grandson and I say that openly - even if he wasn't my grandson I'd say that. In the video below you see three clips. In the first he reads to me, the story of "Peter Pan." Then in the short second clip he reads to Kim and I from her favorite book for kids, "Don't Turn The Page." And the final nine minutes is Oliver's first time ever on Disney's Jungle Cruise ride. He obviously loved the experience - and especially to be with Grandma and Grandpa.
Oliver's Highlights
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