March 6 - 10
In what will be the next-to-last week of daily handicapping at the Championship Meet (how did THAT happen so fast!) I played the races online all week since we were headed to Orlando for a long weekend to visit our grandson Mr. Oliver! The week turned out to be one of the better weeks of the winter as I clicked for nearly 40% winners and cashed for nearly $100 in profits! Here's how the week unfolded......
Wednesday March 6
When I sat down Tuesday and went through the Wednesday racing card I was struck by the fact that race after race was so much like a summer card with very little in the way of form to wager on. In the end the ten race card produced only two bets, both the minimum amount. Both went off at odds that indicated most people liked them as well (5/2 and 8/5) but both ran fourth. Nothing for the first day which didn't surprise me.
Thursday March 7
On today's card I originally had five selections from the eleven race program but the first one scratched. So the first play of the day came in the third race a 7 1/2 furlong turf event for "beaten" claimers. I found the conditions very unusual, ".....for 4yo and up which have not won a race on the turf since September 30....." The two horses which seemed the best fit were Rompin Reid and Nileator. They had met in an OPEN $16K claimer earlier in the meet and 'Reid had finished third while Nileator had been a distant ninth. So with that info you'd think that 'Reid would be the play? Not so fast my friend! Of the eight slated to face the starter SEVEN had already lost in conditioned company, including Rompin Reid who's last win had come in April 2016 when dropped into a nw3L and he'd won by a nose! His record showed THIRTEEN 2nd and 3rd place finishes with only the three wins. Meanwhile Nileator had NEVER in a conditioned race. I thought that was enough info to make him the upset play! He tracked the leader to the far turn under confident handling from Paco Lopez and took off once they turned for home. AND he was a generous $9.20 winner on the board! A nice way to start the day for sure!
In the fourth race I thought that four of the six made sense but I liked Conquest Windy City despite the fact he'd been claimed for $62.5K and now he was entered for just $35K. Figured with the purse he'd get a confidence win and if claimed the connections would about break even. Led the the far turn as the short-priced 3/5 favorite then faded to fourth. In the seventh race I pointed out, again, that if you looked at Julia's Kitty in and of herself on her own merits she wasn't a "good bet," but it was all about the match-up! She was last seen in an AOC $30K nw2L where she was NOT entered for a tag at Hawthorne Race Course in frigid Chicago. Today she dropped to a $10K claimer for 2-lifetime runners and got top jockey Irad Ortiz. While her last four Beyer figures were nothing to write home about, the rest of the field was a combined 8-for-117 and they had ALL proven they were losers in conditioned company. She pressed a 50/1 longshot for a quarter then Ortiz said "enough of this" and opened up. With each stride she widened the margin and drew off as much the best. My double investment led to over $20 in the account.
The final play of the day was the MOST INTERESTING story of the day! First, I recognized in my analysis that the winner was far from obvious, but also that the racing secretary had created a very unique set of conditions for this turf event, ".....for 4yo and up which have not won $10K three times other than maiden, claiming or starter, OR or four races, OR a turf race since September 30, OR a claiming tag of $75K...." With that in mind I thought that one of the two Mark Casse entries (uncoupled) looked like a very good top pick. Got Stormy presented this past performance in the program......
If you looked past the two most recent - which you can see I did - because the first was an off-the-turf event and the previous over soft going - then she had very good form. Four wins in six starts, three of them in stakes and she was a Gr 3 winner. Also today's mile distance saw her with a 7/4-0-2 record. I get it you could be skeptical about the layoff, but she had more than half a dozen solid works. I just thought she looked really sharp. She tracked the pace under VERY confident handling to the far turn, glided up three wide and set sail for the wire finishing as easily the best. The triple investment allowed me to collect nearly $40 on my third win from four selections today! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Friday March 8
I was hopeful, when I sat down to watch the replays this evening, that maybe I'd have another winning day. But after yesterday's big day (preceded by the big effort on Thursday) I was realistic enough to consider just a good 33% win ratio would be acceptable. In the opener there wasn't a lot of turf sprint form to go on in this maiden claimer. BUT I thought that Wildcat Blast was worth a play. In his debut he'd drawn wide then pressed a sizzling :21 flat opening quarter, and stayed with the leaders through a :44.2 half mile before fading to be a wide fourth. With a better trip, one under his belt and a slight class drop, he should be able to get the job done. I anticipated a short price and who knows how he'd run second time out so I went for just the minimum play. Easily made the lead and coasted wire to wire under Irad Ortiz as a very short-priced (2/5) favorite.
The third race was the one race I felt most confident in today. Graceful Princess is based in South Florida but trainer Ralph Nicks sent her to Saratoga for her debut last summer, and she won! Came back off a layoff and was a best-of-the-rest second in a spot like this to a very decisive winner. AND she had earned a field best Beyer. Any kind of second off the layoff improvement and she would prove to be a handful. She dueled on the lead and then gave way midway on the turn, finishing third as the 2/5 favorite. In the very next race Jalen Journey was moving into the Kathleen O'Connell barn and that produced winners 30% of the time with a big $4.35 ROI. The maiden claiming price of $50K is not something you see often at the meet. 'Journey pressed for a quarter and then was a very, very impressive winner widening with each stride. While she was the favorite, she was a tepid one and paid $6.60 allowing me to collect well over $30 on my second winner today!
Missed in the fifth when Mo Maverick was second led into the stretch and was easily best of everyone but the winner at even money. The last bet of the day came in a maiden claiming event on the turf for three-year-olds. Todd Pletcher sent out Go Poke The Bear who had run 4th for $35K and today was dropping in for $20K with Luis Saez on board. He was near the very back early while traveling four wide. Moved three wide on the turn and caught the leader in mid-stretch. The runner-up carried him out through the lane, but he still crossed the wire first and I was cashing for nearly $30 on my third win from five selections today.....another very nice day of handicapping!
Today is a day that traditionally I try to be at Tampa Bay Downs, but not this year. I knew that I wanted to play the Tampa Bay card, but I also wanted to handicap for Gulfstream. So I did the Tampa card first, and had seven selections including a pick in each of the four big stakes events. When I handicapped Gulfstream I tried to approach the card like I typically do when going to Gulfstream for OTHER tracks. Not nearly as much detail on the analysis and only play the "more certain" selections. At the end of the day I had six picks locally. I made my bets early and then we all headed to the Central Florida Zoo where we met Julie & Brendon. Oliver so enjoyed the outing, especially the splash pad and then we went for lunch at a chicken place. He was just very cuddly and wanted to be with his Grandma and Grandpa. A great morning.
We arrived back in time for me to watch the replays of the first couple of picks then the rest of the races on the live feed. The first race on my selection sheet was the third from Gulfstream, the Silks Run Stakes, going five furlongs on the turf. The six who were going to contest it boiled down to three that didn't figure at all to win, and three that you could cover with a blanket. But the way I saw the race playing out was like this. Veteran Pay Any Price who knows only ONE way to run, right to the front (and a 13-for-18 winner at Gulfstream) had drawn the rail. You KNOW he will be on the engine. Then there was Vision Perfect (who had the best speed figures) and Imprimis who was 3-for-3 locally. AND he'd twice run down Pay Any Price when that one had real pressure. I thought that while Vision Perfect COULD track 'Price he would instead try to outrun him and set it up for Imprimis. EXACTLY how it played out and when Imprimis made his move he glided by without any effort, so much so that the track announcer called out, "...and Paco hasn't even moved - oh, my look at Imprimis, this is just a workout....." Easy-peasy-pie. But the big surprise was he'd gone off at better than 2/1 and paid $6.60!
Oh how I wish I'd have at least doubled the bet! But instead had to be satisfied with picking the winner and cashing for over $15 to start the day. Was second with a Pletcher 3yo over the Tampa turf and 4th and 5th twice on the next three. In the seventh at Tampa it was the first of the four big stakes races and here was my analysis.....
As soon as I saw Digital Age in the entries I went back and read my comments because I was pretty sure I remembered thinking, "...this one is one to watch next time out...." And I really loved the fact that he was listed at a big 8/1 in the program. But when the 6th race was completed and the first flash of the odds came up for the Columbia Stakes, Digital Age was the even money favorite. AND he was the top choice in all the multi-race wagers. So much for my "I know something they don't know" overlay play! As they hit the far turn jockey Irad Ortiz began to pick runners off but was caught very wide into the lane. Still, when asked he found that "extra gear" and had dead aim on the leader. It was just a question of was there enough ground for him to get there.......PHOTO FINISH!
I was pretty sure he'd gotten there, but I've been fooled before (see last week at Gulfstream when I "did win" but the photo said otherwise!). Again, can't say for sure, but like Imprimis I think had I been at the track I would have upped the wager at least a click. Still, just happy to be a winner, again!
Missed with a longshot 9/1 runner in Tampa's Challenger Stakes and with a Pletcher 3yo who was seventh at Gulfstream. Now we came to the ninth at Tampa the Grade 2 Hillsborough Stakes on the turf for older fillies and mares. There were two ways to look at this race, and BOTH views required you to have an opinion on Chad Brown's Rymska. She had been cross-entered in two stakes on February 9th, the day my Mom and I were at Gulfstream. And Brown had opted to stay at Gulfstream for the Grade 3 Suwannee River rather than ship to the Fair Grounds (where it rained and the course was really soft). She had been my BET of the day and looked an easy single in the multi-race wagers. Unfortunately jockey Irad Ortiz sat chilly off the leader as that one carved out glacial splits of :51.4 for the opening half mile and a walking 1:16.3 to the pace call. Rymska had no chance to make up any ground, but she was a best of the rest second. So......is she a vulnerable favorite after having gone down in flames to an obviously inferior horse, or was it all pace-dependent? The fact that the winner had come back to be a sharp second last weekend in a graded stakes at Gulfstream (ironically to ANOTHER Brown filly!) helped me make my call. Not only did I make Rymska the bet, but I made her the BEST of the Day! I was concerned when the 5/2 second choice sailed on an uncontested lead through moderate fractions of :25 and :49.3, but you could see on the far turn that today Ortiz had a fully cranked Rymska under him and he blew by without really asking to win going away. Apparently enough of the fans were skeptical of her last and today she was a very generous 8/5 choice meaning I'd collect more than $50! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
My pick in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa made a strong bid on the turn then stopped. And then it was time for my BEST at Gulfstream. This all started two weeks ago in preparation for a trip to the races on February 23rd. I downloaded what I THOUGHT were the Tampa past performances for Saturday but when I opened them they were for Friday the 22nd. Really? I didn't want to play multiple tracks, but I thought IF there is a horse who looks like a legitimate "he should win" type, I'd look at playing. So I opened up the Brisnet programs and saw that in the second race Todd Pletcher was sending out a 3yo in an allowance race. That, in and of itself was interesting. But noting that John Velazquez was up was even more so. I checked the Gulfstream program and he had no mounts for that Friday - so he was in Tampa to ride ONE horse. That horse, Spinoff had won his debut then run third in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. I'm thinking the connections were thinking maybe he's a Derby horse and that's why Velazquez is here. Won big and easy. So in looking at today's card, in the 11th it was a maiden race for three-year-olds going seven furlongs and there was Promo Code. Just because he was in the race for Pletcher would have been enough to get the wager, but then I read Mike Welsch's comments that he'd worked in company with the aforementioned Spinoff and outworked him. Uh oh. He went off at even money and after sitting just off the leader to the far turn he took off and won wrapped up. Cashed for another $40 and change on my fourth winner.
One of the best parts of the Promo Code win was Oliver came to me just as they were loading in the gate and said, "Grandpa watch horses?" He got up on my lap and cheered for "number three" to the wire :) Two very close calls closed the day down. The national spotlight race, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby looked WIDE open to me. I went with a lightly raced Todd Pletcher colt, Outshine. Went off at 6/1 and was in the perfect spot turning for home. Forged to the front in mid-stretch, but then a late runner blew by up the inside and I was second. That would have been nice. And in the last bet of the day, the co-featured Captiva Island Stakes going five furlongs over the GP turf I thought Morticia looked clearly best. So did the crowd as she left the gate as a prohibitive 3/5 choice. Right to the front and was collared at the furlong pole.....heads up and down, photo finish - second by a neck. So for the day the good news was I had four wins and two of them were "BEST BETS" - the bad news I'd made fourteen selections. The lowest percentage day of the week, but because of the money management I was only down $6 for the day. I'll take it!
Sunday March 10
I had handicapped the races for today early in the morning and made the bets before Kim and I headed for home. We got home about 1:30 pm and had a 5 pm Florida Panthers game, so I planned to watch the replays after we returned from the hockey game. The hockey game was a fun time as we blew out Detroit 6-1. Sat down to watch the replays and based on the way most Sundays go I just wanted to hold my own. I had more picks today (6) than any other day (other than Saturday where the card is always stronger). And today I thought I had at least two winners from the first four and I knew, just KNEW I'd probably win with both of my last two picks, certainly one of them. The first bet of the day came in the second race which was a beaten claimer. In looking over the entries I thought it was pretty obvious that O.K. Kay should win the race. She was making the third start of her form cycle - often a peak performance; she was dropping out of back-to-back second level allowance events; and today she was running at a one mile distance .....ALL three of her wins came on THIS COURSE at THIS DISTANCE. Add in top rider Irad Ortiz, c'mon man! She was patiently ridden in last down the backside then began to pick off horses approaching the turn. She kept grinding away to 6th, 5th, and was 4th with a furlong to go but had all the momentum and edged clear in the final 100 yards. Best part - instead of being the favorite she paid a generous $9.20 and I cashed for nearly $25.
Missed with a Todd Pletcher 3yo on the grass when Knock pressed early and gradually faded to sixth. In the fifth I was surprised that Galton looked easily best to pick up the pieces of what I anticipated would be a pace duel. Instead the favorite immediately cleared and not only went easily on the front without pressure but got away with easy fractions. I was surprised in the eleventh when Todd Pletcher's Dull Knife was only third as my "best" of the day. But I just had a feeling that while his uncoupled entrymate Clint Maroon didn't figure to win, he would because that's how the track works! Sure enough, third while 'Maroon won at 2/1 odds. In the final play of the day Pletcher's Impact Player looked to be much closer today and with two bullet works I thought he was sitting on a monster race under John Velazquez. But right out of the gate Johnny V had to work on him to keep up. Was lucky to get third. So very disappointed I didn't get either of those "added money" selections home. BUT.....the story of the day which really was the big story of the week for how the final numbers turned out came in the ninth. This was a maiden special for 3yo on the turf going a mile. My analysis.....
Last winter I won with so many of these kind of runners and it led to the best winter season I've ever had. This winter, for the most part Pletcher just hasn't been as effective and on the few times when he did spring the upset, I had a "better idea!" But today I planned to stick by "the Man." Breaking from the rail Saez immediately sent him to the front. Through pretty honest fractions (:23, :47.3, and 1:11.2) he was pressured by two others at 15/1 and 8/1 odds. Meanwhile the two betting favorites languished at the back waiting to make their move. At the top of the stretch Saez gave Largent the green light and the colt exploded, drawing off with authority in a good looking performance. But I have to tell you, as he hit the far turn and seemed to have plenty in the tank my heart was racing - why? Because he left the gate at a huge 8/1 price - oh my!
Yes, that's right, $18.20 on the tote board meaning I'd cashed for close to $100 on a Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez 3yo. Oh shades of 2018! Made the day, and actually made the week! So the final numbers for this final week of handicapping before the big trip:
I'm not positive I won't play a few of the big 3yo races while we are sailing on the Mediterranean, but my plan at this point is to just enjoy the trip and come back ready for a big final week of racing and the signature day, Florida Derby Day!
The final play of the day was the MOST INTERESTING story of the day! First, I recognized in my analysis that the winner was far from obvious, but also that the racing secretary had created a very unique set of conditions for this turf event, ".....for 4yo and up which have not won $10K three times other than maiden, claiming or starter, OR or four races, OR a turf race since September 30, OR a claiming tag of $75K...." With that in mind I thought that one of the two Mark Casse entries (uncoupled) looked like a very good top pick. Got Stormy presented this past performance in the program......
If you looked past the two most recent - which you can see I did - because the first was an off-the-turf event and the previous over soft going - then she had very good form. Four wins in six starts, three of them in stakes and she was a Gr 3 winner. Also today's mile distance saw her with a 7/4-0-2 record. I get it you could be skeptical about the layoff, but she had more than half a dozen solid works. I just thought she looked really sharp. She tracked the pace under VERY confident handling to the far turn, glided up three wide and set sail for the wire finishing as easily the best. The triple investment allowed me to collect nearly $40 on my third win from four selections today! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Friday March 8
I was hopeful, when I sat down to watch the replays this evening, that maybe I'd have another winning day. But after yesterday's big day (preceded by the big effort on Thursday) I was realistic enough to consider just a good 33% win ratio would be acceptable. In the opener there wasn't a lot of turf sprint form to go on in this maiden claimer. BUT I thought that Wildcat Blast was worth a play. In his debut he'd drawn wide then pressed a sizzling :21 flat opening quarter, and stayed with the leaders through a :44.2 half mile before fading to be a wide fourth. With a better trip, one under his belt and a slight class drop, he should be able to get the job done. I anticipated a short price and who knows how he'd run second time out so I went for just the minimum play. Easily made the lead and coasted wire to wire under Irad Ortiz as a very short-priced (2/5) favorite.
The third race was the one race I felt most confident in today. Graceful Princess is based in South Florida but trainer Ralph Nicks sent her to Saratoga for her debut last summer, and she won! Came back off a layoff and was a best-of-the-rest second in a spot like this to a very decisive winner. AND she had earned a field best Beyer. Any kind of second off the layoff improvement and she would prove to be a handful. She dueled on the lead and then gave way midway on the turn, finishing third as the 2/5 favorite. In the very next race Jalen Journey was moving into the Kathleen O'Connell barn and that produced winners 30% of the time with a big $4.35 ROI. The maiden claiming price of $50K is not something you see often at the meet. 'Journey pressed for a quarter and then was a very, very impressive winner widening with each stride. While she was the favorite, she was a tepid one and paid $6.60 allowing me to collect well over $30 on my second winner today!
Missed in the fifth when Mo Maverick was second led into the stretch and was easily best of everyone but the winner at even money. The last bet of the day came in a maiden claiming event on the turf for three-year-olds. Todd Pletcher sent out Go Poke The Bear who had run 4th for $35K and today was dropping in for $20K with Luis Saez on board. He was near the very back early while traveling four wide. Moved three wide on the turn and caught the leader in mid-stretch. The runner-up carried him out through the lane, but he still crossed the wire first and I was cashing for nearly $30 on my third win from five selections today.....another very nice day of handicapping!
Saturday
Today is a day that traditionally I try to be at Tampa Bay Downs, but not this year. I knew that I wanted to play the Tampa Bay card, but I also wanted to handicap for Gulfstream. So I did the Tampa card first, and had seven selections including a pick in each of the four big stakes events. When I handicapped Gulfstream I tried to approach the card like I typically do when going to Gulfstream for OTHER tracks. Not nearly as much detail on the analysis and only play the "more certain" selections. At the end of the day I had six picks locally. I made my bets early and then we all headed to the Central Florida Zoo where we met Julie & Brendon. Oliver so enjoyed the outing, especially the splash pad and then we went for lunch at a chicken place. He was just very cuddly and wanted to be with his Grandma and Grandpa. A great morning.
We arrived back in time for me to watch the replays of the first couple of picks then the rest of the races on the live feed. The first race on my selection sheet was the third from Gulfstream, the Silks Run Stakes, going five furlongs on the turf. The six who were going to contest it boiled down to three that didn't figure at all to win, and three that you could cover with a blanket. But the way I saw the race playing out was like this. Veteran Pay Any Price who knows only ONE way to run, right to the front (and a 13-for-18 winner at Gulfstream) had drawn the rail. You KNOW he will be on the engine. Then there was Vision Perfect (who had the best speed figures) and Imprimis who was 3-for-3 locally. AND he'd twice run down Pay Any Price when that one had real pressure. I thought that while Vision Perfect COULD track 'Price he would instead try to outrun him and set it up for Imprimis. EXACTLY how it played out and when Imprimis made his move he glided by without any effort, so much so that the track announcer called out, "...and Paco hasn't even moved - oh, my look at Imprimis, this is just a workout....." Easy-peasy-pie. But the big surprise was he'd gone off at better than 2/1 and paid $6.60!
Oh how I wish I'd have at least doubled the bet! But instead had to be satisfied with picking the winner and cashing for over $15 to start the day. Was second with a Pletcher 3yo over the Tampa turf and 4th and 5th twice on the next three. In the seventh at Tampa it was the first of the four big stakes races and here was my analysis.....
As soon as I saw Digital Age in the entries I went back and read my comments because I was pretty sure I remembered thinking, "...this one is one to watch next time out...." And I really loved the fact that he was listed at a big 8/1 in the program. But when the 6th race was completed and the first flash of the odds came up for the Columbia Stakes, Digital Age was the even money favorite. AND he was the top choice in all the multi-race wagers. So much for my "I know something they don't know" overlay play! As they hit the far turn jockey Irad Ortiz began to pick runners off but was caught very wide into the lane. Still, when asked he found that "extra gear" and had dead aim on the leader. It was just a question of was there enough ground for him to get there.......PHOTO FINISH!
I was pretty sure he'd gotten there, but I've been fooled before (see last week at Gulfstream when I "did win" but the photo said otherwise!). Again, can't say for sure, but like Imprimis I think had I been at the track I would have upped the wager at least a click. Still, just happy to be a winner, again!
Missed with a longshot 9/1 runner in Tampa's Challenger Stakes and with a Pletcher 3yo who was seventh at Gulfstream. Now we came to the ninth at Tampa the Grade 2 Hillsborough Stakes on the turf for older fillies and mares. There were two ways to look at this race, and BOTH views required you to have an opinion on Chad Brown's Rymska. She had been cross-entered in two stakes on February 9th, the day my Mom and I were at Gulfstream. And Brown had opted to stay at Gulfstream for the Grade 3 Suwannee River rather than ship to the Fair Grounds (where it rained and the course was really soft). She had been my BET of the day and looked an easy single in the multi-race wagers. Unfortunately jockey Irad Ortiz sat chilly off the leader as that one carved out glacial splits of :51.4 for the opening half mile and a walking 1:16.3 to the pace call. Rymska had no chance to make up any ground, but she was a best of the rest second. So......is she a vulnerable favorite after having gone down in flames to an obviously inferior horse, or was it all pace-dependent? The fact that the winner had come back to be a sharp second last weekend in a graded stakes at Gulfstream (ironically to ANOTHER Brown filly!) helped me make my call. Not only did I make Rymska the bet, but I made her the BEST of the Day! I was concerned when the 5/2 second choice sailed on an uncontested lead through moderate fractions of :25 and :49.3, but you could see on the far turn that today Ortiz had a fully cranked Rymska under him and he blew by without really asking to win going away. Apparently enough of the fans were skeptical of her last and today she was a very generous 8/5 choice meaning I'd collect more than $50! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
My pick in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa made a strong bid on the turn then stopped. And then it was time for my BEST at Gulfstream. This all started two weeks ago in preparation for a trip to the races on February 23rd. I downloaded what I THOUGHT were the Tampa past performances for Saturday but when I opened them they were for Friday the 22nd. Really? I didn't want to play multiple tracks, but I thought IF there is a horse who looks like a legitimate "he should win" type, I'd look at playing. So I opened up the Brisnet programs and saw that in the second race Todd Pletcher was sending out a 3yo in an allowance race. That, in and of itself was interesting. But noting that John Velazquez was up was even more so. I checked the Gulfstream program and he had no mounts for that Friday - so he was in Tampa to ride ONE horse. That horse, Spinoff had won his debut then run third in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. I'm thinking the connections were thinking maybe he's a Derby horse and that's why Velazquez is here. Won big and easy. So in looking at today's card, in the 11th it was a maiden race for three-year-olds going seven furlongs and there was Promo Code. Just because he was in the race for Pletcher would have been enough to get the wager, but then I read Mike Welsch's comments that he'd worked in company with the aforementioned Spinoff and outworked him. Uh oh. He went off at even money and after sitting just off the leader to the far turn he took off and won wrapped up. Cashed for another $40 and change on my fourth winner.
One of the best parts of the Promo Code win was Oliver came to me just as they were loading in the gate and said, "Grandpa watch horses?" He got up on my lap and cheered for "number three" to the wire :) Two very close calls closed the day down. The national spotlight race, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby looked WIDE open to me. I went with a lightly raced Todd Pletcher colt, Outshine. Went off at 6/1 and was in the perfect spot turning for home. Forged to the front in mid-stretch, but then a late runner blew by up the inside and I was second. That would have been nice. And in the last bet of the day, the co-featured Captiva Island Stakes going five furlongs over the GP turf I thought Morticia looked clearly best. So did the crowd as she left the gate as a prohibitive 3/5 choice. Right to the front and was collared at the furlong pole.....heads up and down, photo finish - second by a neck. So for the day the good news was I had four wins and two of them were "BEST BETS" - the bad news I'd made fourteen selections. The lowest percentage day of the week, but because of the money management I was only down $6 for the day. I'll take it!
Sunday March 10
I had handicapped the races for today early in the morning and made the bets before Kim and I headed for home. We got home about 1:30 pm and had a 5 pm Florida Panthers game, so I planned to watch the replays after we returned from the hockey game. The hockey game was a fun time as we blew out Detroit 6-1. Sat down to watch the replays and based on the way most Sundays go I just wanted to hold my own. I had more picks today (6) than any other day (other than Saturday where the card is always stronger). And today I thought I had at least two winners from the first four and I knew, just KNEW I'd probably win with both of my last two picks, certainly one of them. The first bet of the day came in the second race which was a beaten claimer. In looking over the entries I thought it was pretty obvious that O.K. Kay should win the race. She was making the third start of her form cycle - often a peak performance; she was dropping out of back-to-back second level allowance events; and today she was running at a one mile distance .....ALL three of her wins came on THIS COURSE at THIS DISTANCE. Add in top rider Irad Ortiz, c'mon man! She was patiently ridden in last down the backside then began to pick off horses approaching the turn. She kept grinding away to 6th, 5th, and was 4th with a furlong to go but had all the momentum and edged clear in the final 100 yards. Best part - instead of being the favorite she paid a generous $9.20 and I cashed for nearly $25.
Missed with a Todd Pletcher 3yo on the grass when Knock pressed early and gradually faded to sixth. In the fifth I was surprised that Galton looked easily best to pick up the pieces of what I anticipated would be a pace duel. Instead the favorite immediately cleared and not only went easily on the front without pressure but got away with easy fractions. I was surprised in the eleventh when Todd Pletcher's Dull Knife was only third as my "best" of the day. But I just had a feeling that while his uncoupled entrymate Clint Maroon didn't figure to win, he would because that's how the track works! Sure enough, third while 'Maroon won at 2/1 odds. In the final play of the day Pletcher's Impact Player looked to be much closer today and with two bullet works I thought he was sitting on a monster race under John Velazquez. But right out of the gate Johnny V had to work on him to keep up. Was lucky to get third. So very disappointed I didn't get either of those "added money" selections home. BUT.....the story of the day which really was the big story of the week for how the final numbers turned out came in the ninth. This was a maiden special for 3yo on the turf going a mile. My analysis.....
Last winter I won with so many of these kind of runners and it led to the best winter season I've ever had. This winter, for the most part Pletcher just hasn't been as effective and on the few times when he did spring the upset, I had a "better idea!" But today I planned to stick by "the Man." Breaking from the rail Saez immediately sent him to the front. Through pretty honest fractions (:23, :47.3, and 1:11.2) he was pressured by two others at 15/1 and 8/1 odds. Meanwhile the two betting favorites languished at the back waiting to make their move. At the top of the stretch Saez gave Largent the green light and the colt exploded, drawing off with authority in a good looking performance. But I have to tell you, as he hit the far turn and seemed to have plenty in the tank my heart was racing - why? Because he left the gate at a huge 8/1 price - oh my!
Yes, that's right, $18.20 on the tote board meaning I'd cashed for close to $100 on a Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez 3yo. Oh shades of 2018! Made the day, and actually made the week! So the final numbers for this final week of handicapping before the big trip:
31 Selections / 12 WINS - 4 place - 3 show
39% WINNERS
Profit $93.60
I'm not positive I won't play a few of the big 3yo races while we are sailing on the Mediterranean, but my plan at this point is to just enjoy the trip and come back ready for a big final week of racing and the signature day, Florida Derby Day!
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