Wednesday Feb. 27 - Sunday March 3
Fountain of Youth Week
This week promised to be one of the highlights of the winter meet and for me personally it was a big day on Saturday as I got to reconnect with one of my favorite former students. For the week it was a lot like last week as I had early success in the week, had a good Saturday and then the numbers returned to "normal" with an "off day" on Sunday. The totals for the week......
46 / 17 - 8 - 7
37% WINS
Here's how the week unfolded.....
Wednesday February 27
Today we were off the turf, even though the weather TODAY was good, we'd had a lot of rain the previous day, so that meant I'd pass on my first bet in the second (where my pick stayed in and ran second....good call!). The third was a starter allowance and Radiantrithym was my pick. I only went in for the minimum because she'd just won at this level going six furlongs. BUT, her two best efforts had been at 6 1/2 and today's 7f distance. And she was trained by Jorge Navarro who really knows how to spot his runners; A-N-D the runner-up from her last out win had come back to run second in a Tampa stakes. If the last didn't wipe her out she looked good. Send off at 4/5 she pressed the leader to the far turn and then drew off as much the best.
In the fourth, we were scheduled to run on the turf at five furlongs, and only two in here had NOT run for this two-lifetime condition. In spite of the move to the main track I still liked Final Form, one of those two....why? First, she was dropping out of a Belmont $40K event to this GP $16K event but more importantly, the ONLY time she'd run on the dirt was in her debut and SHE'D WON! Tyler Gafflione had her rating off the leaders to mid-way on the far turn then let her go. She widened with every stride and was over half a dozen clear on the wire! Two-for-two to start the week!
In the 7th Jason Servis sent out Bad Student first off the claim. He's winning at a nearly 50% clip and the same first off the claim. Sent off at 5/2 he made a bid on the turn, but couldn't sustain it and weakened to be third. In the finale I had a pick for the turf and if it came off I liked the "Main Track Only" runner Senasational Zip. While he'd been some eight lengths off the winner last time out, but he 9 1/2 clear of the rest of the field. And while he was already an 11-time maiden I gave him a mulligan for facing all turf runners on the dirt here. He tracked the leader in second to the far turn then took off - officially the final margin was over sixteen lengths! Ultra impressive - remember it's all about the match-up! Three out of four to start the week, I'll take that any time!
In the 7th Jason Servis sent out Bad Student first off the claim. He's winning at a nearly 50% clip and the same first off the claim. Sent off at 5/2 he made a bid on the turn, but couldn't sustain it and weakened to be third. In the finale I had a pick for the turf and if it came off I liked the "Main Track Only" runner Senasational Zip. While he'd been some eight lengths off the winner last time out, but he 9 1/2 clear of the rest of the field. And while he was already an 11-time maiden I gave him a mulligan for facing all turf runners on the dirt here. He tracked the leader in second to the far turn then took off - officially the final margin was over sixteen lengths! Ultra impressive - remember it's all about the match-up! Three out of four to start the week, I'll take that any time!
Thursday February 28
I had six bets today, but with Kim still in Pennsylvania and the first two plays (in the 2nd and 3rd) being added money bets I decided to run out for a couple of hours. First thing I did was cash the tickets I had left from Saturday's action......
In the second I commented that if #2 Much About It didn't win today I didn't think she'd ever win. She was the lone class dropper in this maiden field and on paper looked tough to go against. Turning for home Tyler Gafflione opened up a multiple length lead, but nearing the wire she shortened stride.....PHOTO finish! From my angle I thought she'd hung on and as I watched the replay a guy said to his buddy, "The 2 held on and was the winner." They looked at it a long time and then the official verdict, NO....second. When I saw the photo posted on Twitter and then the official photo I was N-O-T happy - check it out:
I have never got it how the camera works when the red part of the rail is NOT past the finish line on track but in the "official" photo it is. Always an issue when I'm on the losing end! That made back-to-back odds-on favorites losers, so I was sure Captain Gaughen in the third would win at 3/5 odds. Second again. Sigh....headed for home and fortunately I got two winners from the next four, but both at minimum betting plays. Shug McGaughey's Barrier Island won an entry level going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track and Mr. Chaplain repeated for trainer Jorge Delgado who was winning at a 46% clip with Tyler Gafflione.
In the second I commented that if #2 Much About It didn't win today I didn't think she'd ever win. She was the lone class dropper in this maiden field and on paper looked tough to go against. Turning for home Tyler Gafflione opened up a multiple length lead, but nearing the wire she shortened stride.....PHOTO finish! From my angle I thought she'd hung on and as I watched the replay a guy said to his buddy, "The 2 held on and was the winner." They looked at it a long time and then the official verdict, NO....second. When I saw the photo posted on Twitter and then the official photo I was N-O-T happy - check it out:
I have never got it how the camera works when the red part of the rail is NOT past the finish line on track but in the "official" photo it is. Always an issue when I'm on the losing end! That made back-to-back odds-on favorites losers, so I was sure Captain Gaughen in the third would win at 3/5 odds. Second again. Sigh....headed for home and fortunately I got two winners from the next four, but both at minimum betting plays. Shug McGaughey's Barrier Island won an entry level going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track and Mr. Chaplain repeated for trainer Jorge Delgado who was winning at a 46% clip with Tyler Gafflione.
With the conclusion of racing today I was able to close the book on February and add up how the first three months of the meet have added up.
Friday March 1
I started big and ended big.....my first bet of the day came in the second race where I thought Mucho would be "mucho" the best - aren't I so clever? Mucho had debuted for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who as I've said many times, rarely has them fully cranked at first asking. Mucho ran sharp 2nd. Came back off a short break to win with authority over Saratoga two-year-olds - and you KNOW only the best juveniles run there! Off that maiden win he was sent to the Grade 1 Hopeful where he bobbled the break and still was a just-miss second. He had not been seen since, but Mott is always very strong with layoff runners and Mucho looked every bit the 1/5 favorite he was listed in the program. The colt raced third to the turn, responded when asked and drew off.
Ironically, I had written in my analysis that since the first was such a toss-up it might be the "best bet" to play an "ALL-1" daily double. But I did not, instead (as you can see) I played a $20 WIN bet on Mucho. He went off at 1-2 odds so I got back $30. The first race was won by a $16.80 upset runner, but the double paid $24.00 for a $2 bet. Because there were nine runners in the opener I'd have spent $18 and got back $24.....instead I spent $20 and got back $30! THAT is why I next to never play the double - even with a nice price on top I made more money playing strictly to win :) I went winless through the next four races. The first two went off at nice prices (10/1 and 5/1) but ran to their odds. I then had the 6/5 favorite and a 1-2 favorite with triple investments and they disappointed, running fifth and third. So as we came to my final play of the day I thought Amazing Audrey looked really good despite the wide draw in post twelve going a mile on the turf. She'd paired figures in her last two and those figures beat 75 of the 77 career figures earned by her rivals. She had top jockey Irad Ortiz and while it's never a guarantee to win, she was Ron Nicoletti's BET of the Day, and those almost always win. When I checked the multi-race payoffs she was strongly played. So instead of betting my planned on double investment, I went in "PRIME TIME" with $20 to win. Right to the front, clearing the field easily into the first turn and never looked back.
The generous 8/5 post time price generated a payout of $5.20 so I cashed for over $50 and had won with 33% of my selections AND thanks to upping the bet, made a profit on the day!
Ironically, I had written in my analysis that since the first was such a toss-up it might be the "best bet" to play an "ALL-1" daily double. But I did not, instead (as you can see) I played a $20 WIN bet on Mucho. He went off at 1-2 odds so I got back $30. The first race was won by a $16.80 upset runner, but the double paid $24.00 for a $2 bet. Because there were nine runners in the opener I'd have spent $18 and got back $24.....instead I spent $20 and got back $30! THAT is why I next to never play the double - even with a nice price on top I made more money playing strictly to win :) I went winless through the next four races. The first two went off at nice prices (10/1 and 5/1) but ran to their odds. I then had the 6/5 favorite and a 1-2 favorite with triple investments and they disappointed, running fifth and third. So as we came to my final play of the day I thought Amazing Audrey looked really good despite the wide draw in post twelve going a mile on the turf. She'd paired figures in her last two and those figures beat 75 of the 77 career figures earned by her rivals. She had top jockey Irad Ortiz and while it's never a guarantee to win, she was Ron Nicoletti's BET of the Day, and those almost always win. When I checked the multi-race payoffs she was strongly played. So instead of betting my planned on double investment, I went in "PRIME TIME" with $20 to win. Right to the front, clearing the field easily into the first turn and never looked back.
The generous 8/5 post time price generated a payout of $5.20 so I cashed for over $50 and had won with 33% of my selections AND thanks to upping the bet, made a profit on the day!
Saturday March 2
Because I was meeting with Tatiana today I handicapped the Gulfstream card and then looked at three other tracks for really strong selections. I was a very good 5-for-13 at Gulfstream, and got four other wins, including the BET of the DAY on Winx as she notched her 31st victory in a row so that I finished 9-for-24 on the day. To read the stories from today, click HERE
Fountain of Youth Day Highlights
Sunday March 3
I started off by hitting with a prohibitive 1/9 shot with the first bet of the day, a minimum bet and then was shut out the remainder of the day.
Next week is Tampa Bay Derby Day, but we will be in Orlando so I'll have to play online. We'll return home to So Fla on Sunday and then Wednesday we leave for Barcelona, Spain and the beginning of a two week Viking Oceans cruise on the Mediterranean Sea. We won't return until Tuesday March 26, giving me just enough time to play the races the final week of the Championship Meet and have a couple of days to prepare for Florida Derby Day on Saturday March 30!
Next week is Tampa Bay Derby Day, but we will be in Orlando so I'll have to play online. We'll return home to So Fla on Sunday and then Wednesday we leave for Barcelona, Spain and the beginning of a two week Viking Oceans cruise on the Mediterranean Sea. We won't return until Tuesday March 26, giving me just enough time to play the races the final week of the Championship Meet and have a couple of days to prepare for Florida Derby Day on Saturday March 30!
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