An early look at the Florida Derby Day races. I'll go through the stakes races horse-by-horse and provide insight on each. While often this may provide a key to the betting, these are NOT my final selections. Friday I'll do a race analysis and have my betting choices and strategy for you at the track. The non-stakes races I'm only providing a brief look at the major contenders here.
Race 1: Claiming - $16K
One and one-sixteenths mile on the Turf
11:30 am post time
11:30 am post time
2-Dexter Road and 6-Son of Oahu appear to be the two main contenders in here. Both have nearly identical speed figures that would indicate they are faster than the rest of the field and they have the two best riders at the meet. Jockey Irad Ortiz leads Luis Saez (heading into Thursday's races) by a margin of 126 wins to 125 wins, but it appears that Saez has the edge in the Derby Day opener on Dexter Road. Typically during the Championship Meet here, horses that race primarily at Woodbine in Toronto do NOT run particularly well, but 'Dexter is one of the rare exceptions. In December he ran for this same $16K price tag and was second in a photo finish losing by a nose. He set the pace that day, but came back two weeks later and was more patiently handled, stalking the leaders in third before edging clear to win. A month later he ran in a $50K starter stakes and was a good second. Last time out he ran in an optional $25K claimer so today he drops in price to his best level. The last three figures (83-83-84) and his career 4-for-10 mark on the turf course appear to give him an edge. Meanwhile Son of Oahu possesses the same number of career turf victories - four - but from twenty-eight starts on the inner course. He gets Ortiz for the first time today and that may well be a sign that the connections think he's sitting on a big race. He may be the right one despite the lower win percentage as six of his last seven starts dating back to last July have all produced slightly faster speed figures (84-to-86). But it's worth noting that in June he was claimed for $10K and has been running for $25K to $16K and has only a single win.
Seven furlongs
Noon post time
Entry level allowance races like this are typically very difficult to predict because you get such an eclectic collection of runners; and when restricted to state-bred runners, like this race, they become even more difficult to predict. You have last out maiden winners who are both lightly raced and racing veterans facing multiple claiming race winners who STILL haven't cleared this first level of allowance competition; and you have horses who have tried this allowance level on multiple occasions and haven't won. To make this race more difficult I could easily see how EIGHT of the twelve could be posing in the winner's circle afterwards, so tread carefully! In three of his last four starts 5-Transistor has earned speed figures that would win by open lengths in here (85-87-88), and he's earned them while running in stronger races than this....AND he's won two of them. BUT, he's been running in one-turn mile races so this seven furlongs may be a touch too short. Note that his last two wins were split by a third place finish to today's rival, 6-Tell Me A Story. That one appeared long gone after dueling early for the lead and opening up by three lengths into the stretch before weakening, but he still held on to beat Transistor - the turn back to 7f may help him today. 4-Vincero goes first off the claim for trainer Saffie Joseph, and he usually is very strong with that angle. He gets Irad Ortiz (a 35% winner for Joseph) and it's interesting that Ortiz was aboard for the previous trainer. This 4yo is 4/2-2-0 at this difficult seven furlong distance and shows a sharp best of 36 bullet workout for today.....that's GOOD, but he's been a beaten favorite in his last three starts.....that's BAD. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell sends out an uncoupled entry in 2-Jalen Journey and 3-Starship Apollo who earned nearly identical winning speed figures when winning. The former exits a maiden win and typically a horse facing winners for the first time will regress rather than improve. But he drew off impressively in just his second start so he may have some upside and he gets Luis Saez while trying to stretch out from 6f to 7f. Meanwhile 'Apollo is a 7-time winner at Gulfstream (including three times at 7f) and goes second off the claim. Note that Irad Ortiz was up last time when he ran poorly and jumps off to ride Vincero.
One Mile
12:30 post time
Two high-priced colts look to be the more likely choices and winner in this one-turn mile event. It would be no surprise to me if Chad Brown's 7-No Rules were to win today and pay a very fair price (perhaps around 4/1) - or win as a short priced favorite if the crowd sees what I see. He was bought for a big $330K and debuted here in mid-January in a six furlong sprint. He broke slowly and trailed the field before passing only two horses late. While he finished 7th of nine beaten EIGHTEEN lengths it may be worth noting that the top three were fourteen clear of the field and the third place winner came right back to win. Brown is 29% with second time maiden starters and 30% with runners off a short layoff like this. The addition of blinkers today may add to the colt's focus and it's worth mentioning that Brown is a 35% winner when adding the shades like this! Finally, as a son of champion Union Rags, the stretch to eight furlongs today is a very good distance move. Javier Castellano rides. 1-Ownitifyouwantit was third in his December debut here, beaten ten plus lengths. He came back in mid-January and tried two turns going a mile and a sixteenth and set the pace to the far turn at a big 15/1 price on the board. He was run down by a colt named Country House who is on the Kentucky Derby trail and ran last weekend in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Note 'Ownit was daylight clear of the rest of the field. 2-Donegal Aces may be the "wild card" as he makes his career debut today for a barn that wins with 20% of those and gets Irad Ortiz.
One Mile
1:00 pm post time
4-Prince Lucky is very likely to be the short-priced favorite at post time, and why not? He is sent out by Todd Pletcher with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. He won the Easy Goer Stakes last spring on the Belmont Stakes undercard in New York then wasn't seen again until a month ago when he ran here in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope. The crowd, including me, ignored him at 7/1 odds and he ran away with the race paying over $16 to win while earning an outstanding 106 Beyer speed figure. No surprise that the beaten favorite, Copper Town - who is also trained by Pletcher - does NOT come back to run here today. The 4yo colt is now 5-for-9 in his lightly raced career. Very dangerous! 1-Tale of Silence: the good news is that in eight of his last ten starts he's raced in stakes events and does have a win in the Grade 3 Westchester at Belmont going this same one-turn mile distance. The bad news is that he was 12/1 that day, won in a photo and that's the ONLY win he's had in nearly a full year of racing. 2-Millionaire Runner has been beaten a combined 100 plus lengths in his six starts and 0-for-4 at this distance, ouch. 3-Be Gone Daddy has won three of his last four and has strong speed figures. BUT those came against allowance foes and he's never tried a stakes event before. He does keep Luis Saez today who was onboard for the last out win at seven furlongs. Give him a chance. If there was a bet for "who runs last today" then 5-All Golden would be the shortest price of the day. He exits back-to-back-to-back drubbings in non-winners of two lifetime claiming races with speed figures that would put him still on the far turn when the winner crosses the finish line. No, never in a million years. 6-Guy Cabballero has run close 2nd and 3rd in five straight vs. allowance foes; would be a surprise.
Race 5: The Cutler Bay Stakes (3yo)
One Mile on the Turf
1:30 pm post time
3-Marquee Prince may be the reason that 1-Seismic Wave has a rider change to Irad Ortiz because Javier Castellano leaves that one to ride here. And you can understand why because 'Prince is already a 4x winner, including two stakes races. He's 2-for-3 on the turf and you can dismiss the one loss as it came in his debut (always tough to win first out going long and on the turf). That trainer Brad Cox - who's the top trainer at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans - ships this stakes winner to run today, HERE is significant because last weekend there were multiple stakes races in New Orleans on the Louisiana Derby undercard.....so Cox must have had this one circled for his 3yo colt. Uh oh.Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott RARELY has his youngsters ready to fire first time out so the fact that 1-Seismic Wave ran 2nd and 3rd in his first two starts, BOTH in photo finishes indicates he has talent. Add in that the conservative Mott sends this sophomore into stakes action right off his maiden win is another indication that he's highly regarded by his connections. Turns back from a 9f win to this one-mile distance and gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz. Would not be a surprise. 2-Forever Mo is making his tenth career start but may have just turned the corner. Three back he won a high-priced maiden event, then came right back to beat $50K optional claimers (unusual for a runner to win right back after their maiden victory) and then most recently was a photo-finish 2nd in a stakes event similar to this. Jockey Manny Franco is down from New York, where he's the leading rider this winter. Don't dismiss too lightly. 4-Art G Is Back may be worth a long look in here as he shows an angle I really like in turf racing. Last time out was his FIRST TRY ON THE GRASS and he ran a career best 83 speed figure, improving his career high number by nearly fifteen points. AND it's worth noting that he was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths despite trying the turf for the first time AND running in a Grade 3 stakes event, losing to a multiple stakes-winning colt. A bit worrisome that local trainer is only 3-for-50 at the meet and that jockey Tyler Gafflione (who's very talented) is 0-for-9 for Spatz. Mixed signals here. 5-Stirling Drive won the Juvenile Turf at Gulfstream Park West in November at 3/1 odds but has been 30/1 or worse in four straight beat-downs in stakes company here at the Championship Meet - no. 6-Insider Trading has only been out twice, both on the main track at Woodbine (which, to be fair, often plays like turf). Not been seen since November. I think this is just a conditioning race to get him ready to run in Canada later this spring. Would be a big surprise. 7-Candy Cushem....hmmmm. Got Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez last time out in a maiden event and he WON by a nose at 7/1 odds. Velazquez pretty picky about when and where he rides, so stick with the colt from maiden to stakes company may be telling. Note he was third beaten less than three lengths by Forever Mo two back, so if you like that one you have to be intrigued by 'Candy.
Race 6: The Sanibel Stakes (3yo)
One Mile on the Turf
2:00 pm post time
The filly version of Race 5....... 1-La Australiana debuted a month ago and surprised everyone when runinning a sharp third at a huge 80/1 price. Still a maiden she'd be as big a surprise today, but you have to at least look if her connections send her out in a stakes while still a maiden. 2-Vow To Recover lost her dirt debut, then won on the turf in her second outing. Came right back to repeat in the Juvenile Filly Turf at Gulfstream Park West across town. Was a good third in the Wait A While Stakes here in December showing he's classy enough to be considered today. She ran fifth in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride last time but improved her speed figure. That's good, but one of the fillies that beat her is back today, that's bad. 3-A Bit Special has done little wrong. She won her debut sprinting five furlongs on the turf, here. Stretched out to two turns going 7 1/2 furlongs AND in a stakes race facing winners for the first time she was 2nd in a photo finish, losing by a neck. Came right back to dominate the Our Dear Peg Stakes, repeated in the Wait A While Stakes; and won yet again in the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant Stakes last time out. A legitimate threat. There are two ways to look at 4-Belle Laura - on the downside, jockey Julian Leparoux leaves this filly to ride back on A Bit Special, and Leparoux is a regular rider for trainer Norm Casse; also 'Laura has only one win from five starts. But on the upside, she ran "ok" in her maiden debut going a mile on the turf (again, tough to win first out going long on the grass) then dominated Churchill Downs maidens on the grass at this same one mile distance. Was a sharp third in the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes at nearly 50/1 odds when facing winners for the first time and that encouraged the connections to try the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was not in the same zip code with superstar filly Newspaperofrecord (but then I'd argue NO ONE is in the same league with that one!). Off a four month layoff she set the pace in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride before tiring late to finish third. Note she'd NEVER been on the lead before. Like the new rider is Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, and she's sure to improve second off the long break. Sneaky good. 5-Trenchtown Cat is a puzzling one.....she was a sharp second with a good speed figure in her turf debut and then won last time out on the grass with authority....and she keeps leading rider Irad Ortiz. BUT, both those races were in five furlong turf sprints. Faces winners for the first time, stakes runners at that, AND has to go two turns for the first time. She'd have to be pretty special to do that - but the barn is winning at a big 31% for the meet. Hmmmm. 6-Positive Skew has big time human connections with trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano while being owned by the powerful Klaravich Stable. If there is a stakes race on the turf in North America you HAVE to strongly consider any Chad Brown runner. She was a just-miss third in a turf sprint debut in New York, then won as the even money favorite here on January 6. If Chad Brown says she's good enough to move from maiden to stakes company, that's good enough for me. Dangerous despite what would appear a tall task. 7-Scat Mommy won at first asking, going long on the turf. That's tough to do. And now comes right back in a stakes. Might be this good, but the fact that the win was at Gulfstream Park West AND that the barn is a woeful 1-for-35 here this winter makes me toss her. 8-Seranitsa is likely to be dismissed as a last out maiden and that it took her EIGHT tries to finally get that elusive first win. BUT, note that six of those races were on the dirt and her two best and fastest races came when on the turf. She was a photo-finish second in her turf debut, earning a 70 Beyer and then won wire-to-wire with a 73 Beyer last out. I think she's more of an early pace presence than a win candidate, but wouldn't be a big surprise if she scored right back.
Race 7: Maiden Special (3yo)
One and one-sixteenths mile on the Turf
2:30 pm post time
Both 12-Comfy Cozy and 13-Ygritte are drawn near the parking lot and are very likely to be caught wide into the first turn, which may compromise their chances. The former leaped forward on the Beyer speed figure scale when trying turf last time out, moving from a 19 to a 72 when going from a dirt route to a turf route. The fact that he was sent right to the front could mean he can overcome his wide draw if no one on the inside forces a quick early pace. Not really a fan that he was loose on a pretty "comfy" lead through moderate fractions, going shorter, and still gave way. The latter debuts for trainer Christophe Clement with jockey Javier Castellano. The Castellano of three and four years ago when he was riding in remarkable form and won back-to-back Eclipse Awards as the nations jockey would make this one the top choice, but he's been erratic (in my opinion) since changing jockey agents to start the 2017-18 Gulfstream meet.
Race 8: Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks (3yo)
One and one-sixteenth mile
3:00 pm post time
6-Dunbar Road is a $350K sales graduate and when debuted by Chad Brown here going a one-turn mile four weeks ago was no secret as she ran away as tons the best as the 8/5 favorite. Big jump from MSW to Gr 2, but Brown and owner Peter Brant are very well known to campaign nothing but the highest quality runners. With Irad Ortiz up, this could be a special filly. 3-Point of Honor was no secret when unveiled here in December. The race was originally scheduled for the turf, but the daughter of champion Curlin loved the going and drew off impressively as the favorite. The connections were so encouraged that they shipped to Tampa for the Suncoast Stakes, and I made her my top choice. The crowd wasn't fooled and she was made the 5/2 favorite and won again with authority. It's a big step up from a listed Tampa stakes to a Grade 2 at Gulfstream, but hey - she's unbeaten and yet to be really tested. 1-Safta would be a huge surprise....debuted in a 6f maiden sprint and was third. Now is expected to go two turns in a Grade 2 against proven winners? It is a horse race and the barn wins with 40% of their second time maiden starters. But still, not for me. 2-Shacklette should be a big price, but she would be a good "hunch play" for those of you who remember when Dale Romans campaigned Shackleford through a remarkable career. That started when that colt was more than 50/1 here in the Florida Derby and was 2nd. He won the the Grade 1 Preakness and keyed a huge winning day for me and several racing fans who had me bet him that day. Shacklette went 0-for-10 before breaking her maiden two back, and then came right back to win a one-turn mile starter. Never toss a Romans' three year old without some consideration. 4-Bella Ciao would be another "hunch bet" considering we just returned home from a Mediterranean cruise and spent several days in Italy! Mamma Mia! She was considered good enough to be shipped from summer Gulfstream competition to try the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga and was a solid fourth. Was a no-show 10th in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland. Two good tries and two dismal tries here this winter as a 3yo will almost guarantee she's a big price. 5-Champagne Anyone has hinted she just might be ready to jump up after running third in both the Grade 3 Forward Gal and Grade 2 Davona Dale here. The paired Beyer figures (83-84) are often a sign of impending big effort by a thoroughbred. Hmmmm. 7-Cookie Dough went wire-to-wire in the last two legs of the state-bred Florida Sire Stakes series here, then nearly wired the Grade 2 Davona Dale, leaving champion 2yo filly Jaywalk languishing in the stretch. Always a bit dubious when a horse runs consistently slower numbers then suddenly has a big one (69-68-90) like this one.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (3yo)
One and one-sixteenths mile on the Turf
3:34 post time
The best advice here may be to wait until the 8th race is complete and see how not only the win pool is being played, but even more importantly what are the pay-offs in the multi-race wagers. That's because there are three sophomores in here that could be solid win bets, or not. If one of these is being strongly played I'd really consider them; or if one of them is a fair price and the other two are short prices, I'd be tempted there. Or this simply may be one of those "go figure" kind of results - it is a classic Gulfstream 3yo event! I'd love to have a conversation with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez because he was on both 2-Overbold and 8-Social Paranoia in their last few races. Overbold was 10th beaten 11 lengths in his debut, then a much-improved third but beaten nearly seven lengths in February, chasing a Todd Pletcher repeat winner. Meanwhile, Social Paranoia has run 2nd or 3rd in all five starts including a last-out third in the Grade 3 Pilgrim as a 2yo....yes, as a maiden. So it would seem obvious, especially noting that 'Paranoia's speed figures are much better than any in here, that Velazquez would stick with Social Paranoia - even more likely since that one is trained by long-time boss and personal friend Todd Pletcher. But NO! Johnny V chooses to stick with Bill Mott's colt, Overbold. The dismal first race isn't a surprise since Mott's runner nearly never run sharply in debut, and the second time improvement speaks to potential. Hmmmmm. The other likely winner is Chad Brown's 10-Machine Learning who has the big time connections with Brown, Javier Castellano and the Klaravich ownership group. Debuts today off a string of a dozen well spaced works, several of them quick bullet works. Watch the board!
Race 10: The Sand Springs Stakes
One Mile on the Turf
4:17 pm post time
9-Proctor's Ledge is a three-time graded stakes winner and if you're willing to look past the last three "ok" races she's a good looking choice. I am willing to overlook those races because despite not hitting the board she ran big Beyer figures, but even more so she just may have tipped her hand with a blistering best-of-53 bullet work two weeks ago in a sizzling :46.3 seconds going a half mile. Gets Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez again who was on board for her last win, in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Mile last spring. Very dangerous. 1-Vendita is a veteran with eight turf wins, but every time she runs in an added money stakes she's no where to be found. Would surprise. 2-Fire Key has never been beyond 7 1/2 furlongs but the one time she went two turns at that distance she was absolutely flying late to be a fast closing third, beaten one length in the South Beach Stakes here. Jockey Manny Franco could provide the upset in here! 3-Mrs. Ramona G won three turn allowance races in a row before finishing a good third in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf behind multiple graded stakes winner and odds-on favorite (and my top choice) Starship Jubilee. Away since that mid-January race she's twice fired off the bench to win. 4-Quebec has raced on the Southern California circuit since late 2017 and was 3rd in a Grade 3 out there. Gets Irad Ortiz, and will be a fair price with only one win since December of 2017, but that was here. 5-Valedictorian surprised the Grade 3 Suwanee River field, including prohibitive 1/5 favorite, multiple graded stakes winning Rymska (who was my bet of the day, booooo). Then came right back to nearly duplicate before Rymska's stable mate Preciuse (also my top play) caught her in deep stretch. The one to catch. 6-Too Charming won the Topical Park Oaks here and is also a front runner meaning that either she and Valedictorian will run each other into submission or Valedictorian will need to take back, which she has shown the ability to do. 7-Midnight Soiree looks overmatched on paper. 8-Andina Del Sur won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks last March in Tampa and has gone winless in eight straight while running "good" in all of them. She won't get my money, but she could win at a fair price.
Race 11: Allowance-Optional Claiming
Seven furlongs
4:49 post time
Allowance races that are "no conditions" like this - as opposed to "non-winners of one," or "non-winners of two" are typically written by the racing secretary for the express purpose of luring a specific horse into the gate. In this field that would appear to be Todd Pletcher's lightly race 3-Gleason who came off an eleven-month layoff last time out and ran a career best 87 speed figure in just his fourth career start. His first two starts saw him win as much the best in a Tampa maiden special weight event then a good second in an Aqueduct entry level allowance. Pletcher sent him to the Grade 2 Penn Mile for his first turf start next and he was distanced - obviously doesn't like the grass. Then came the last out effort. A sharp bullet work and go-to rider John Velazquez should make him the favorite and a likely winner. 4-Rock Doc ran a 90 Beyer last time out when winning a SECOND level allowance, so he may find this field softer. BUT, that was back in June and against NY-breds while today is an open allowance field. 5-Restoring Hope represents what has been one of the BEST handicapping angles of the winter......a runner sent out by trainer Jason Servis, and especially one that's ridden by Irad Ortiz. Servis is winning at an insanely hot 45% clip here against the best competition east of the Rocky Mountains; with Ortiz up they are winning at an even more remarkable 52%, and despite those numbers, for ever $2 bet on them as a duo they average $2.52 in payoffs! Many of Servis' winners have come for owners Gary & Mae West in their iconic black diamond and hoop silks, and this one is owned by them as well. Add in that this colt moves from one of the best barns on the west coast, Bob Baffert (who's won two Triple Crowns of late!) to Servis, and that Servis wins with 40% of his first time acquisitions and you see why he may well go favored!
Race 12: Allowance-Optional Claiming
One Mile on the Turf
5:26 post time
The conditions of this race are for runners who've not won $10K twice, or three races, or for a $62.5K claiming price. And as wide open as those conditions read, that's the way the field is. Any number of these COULD win, while none of them are clear-cut win favorites. The lightly raced 8-Battle of Blenheim moved from the Chad Brown barn into the Todd Pletcher barn and IF he were to run one of his better races, he'd be a solid win candidate. But you have to have some concerns in that he was right there in third turning for home in his first start for Pletcher then stopped to finish 8th as the betting favorite. But, it's the first time in his four year career that he's raced twice in a row without a long layoff, and it's encouraging that Pletcher does NOT enter him in for a tag....must think he has some potential. Wide open.
Race 13: Grade 2 Pan American Stakes
One and one-half mile on the Turf
6:00 pm post time
This race has all the indicators that someone is going to win and pay a big price, and after the prices are posted you'll look in the program and say, "Huh, go figure how THAT horse won today!" 1-Focus Group is a marathon specialist and should enjoy the distance, but his best efforts have come against allowance rivals and this may be a bit too classy for his ability. Up through 2017 2-Melmich was a near certain win threat, especially on the synthetic main track at Woodbine. But his age has caught up to him and he's now 1-for-his-last twelve. Perhaps more significantly he's only been on the turf three times without a win. BUT you could see the upside in that his last was a just-miss second in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida, the prep race for this. 3-Village King goes for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez, so you have to give him a look. BUT since coming to the US from his native Argentina he is winless. He found himself on the lead in the aforementioned Mac Diarmida, which probably is NOT what he wants. He wilted late. Provided he gets a pace to track he could be far more dangerous today than he appears on paper. 4-Canessar comes from well off the pace and will need not only a solid front runner to set the table, but also racing luck to weave through the field to get to the wire first. On numbers, his two and three back races when finishing second in the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes at Arlington and second in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup. He's a logical candidate with regular Maryland rider Fergal Lynch in for the ride, but he's not a solid favorite. 5-Nessy is another who would be a strong win candidate on his best day, such as when he won a Gr 3 marathon event in Southern California last April. But since then he would not be considered a strong threat. 6-Highland Sky is another like Nessy who on his best day (a 103 Beyer win) would be solid, but he's only seen the winner's circle once in his last twelve starts. 7-Salute the Colonel shows only two wins in the last year, both against state-bred allowance types. Would be an automatic toss but he gets hot-riding Luis Saez. 8-Soglio may be the "best bet" in here if you bet him across the board because in five starts at Gulfstream he's never failed to hit the board.....of course "race track psychology" would be that if you bet him to show today he'd run fourth :) 9-Bigger Picture has twice won a Grade 3 at this distance and is a remarkable 19-for-38 finishing first or second. The "concern" is that BOTH of his wins have come at Sam Houston Park in the Gr 3 John Connolly - all the other times he runs well, but without getting the big check.
Race 14: Grade 1 Florida Derby (3yo)
Nine furlongs
6:30 pm post time
Before looking at the field it's perhaps important to note that in ALL the big 3yo races which serve as stepping stones to the "Run for the Roses," the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. ALL of them have seen short-priced favorites go down in defeat to big priced horses. So before loading up on one of the favorites today, you may be wise to look for some kind of long shot angle that may pay you should be fortunate enough to win. And how you view the race and make your betting choice MUST go directly through what your opinion is of 1-Hidden Scroll. As mentioned previously in this analysis, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott rarely has them ready to go at first asking, but when Hidden Scroll debuted on January 26th, Pegasus World Cup Day here, he won by FOURTEEN widening lengths, and was visually THE most impressive maiden winner of the meet, and probably the entire winter for ANY three-year-old. He drew off effortlessly without ever being asked to run hard. He was the media darling and an early Kentucky Derby favorite, based largely upon his enormous 104 speed figure....that's a number that would win many Kentucky Derbies over the last twenty plus years, and handily. But there were questions - it was a wet track that day, did he freak in the mud? He was loose on an easy lead which often produces an inflated speed figure. Still the very conservative Mott was quoted as saying they really believed he was the kind of horse that could win the Derby. He made his second, and most recent start in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. And here is where it gets dicey because he was fourth that day as the favorite. If you are against his chances, you'll say that his first race was overrated, was aided by the off going, and he's yet to prove himself around two turns on a fast track. But, conversely, knowing that often the most difficult race for a thoroughbred is his first try vs. winners, you might be forgiving and say that to go two turns for the first time, against winners, in a graded stakes nonetheless....well a fourth place finish was admirable. That's supported by the way he was ridden that afternoon when his jockey had every opportunity to patiently track the longshot leader, but instead fought for the lead all the way around the track. In spite of his inexperience, and all the "firsts" he was dealing with, as they turned for home he forged to the front and was only caught in the last sixteenth of a mile. So.....does he get a more patient ride today and prove the first race hoopla was well-deserved, or does he fade through the lane at today's longer distance? That's where you start today. What say YOU? 2-Current won two of his first three starts, all on turf. His lone try on the main track was dismal. Would be a surprise of major proportions. 3-Harvey Wallbanger ran second three straight times to start his career, then finally scored as a short-priced favorite. Off the maiden win he went into the Grade 2 Holy Bull here and blew by the heavily bet favorite (who is now off the Derby trail) to win at nearly 30/1. His connections said they "knew all the time he was that good." OK, we'll see. How good is 4-Bourbon War? He was sharp in a debut win, then was a decent fourth in the Grade 2 Remsen going today's nine furlongs to close his 2yo campaign. His first start here was a decisive win and got people putting him on their Derby watch lists. He took advantage of the hot pace in the Fountain of Youth to rally past Hidden Scroll and get second money, beaten only 3/4 of a length. Worth noting that the colt he beat two back, Cutting Humor, is a Todd Pletcher 3yo who won a graded stakes last weekend and now is going to the Kentucky Derby. 5-Everfast is probably a good gauge on how good Havey Wallbanger is. When that won scored at 30/1 in the Gr 2 Holy Bull, this one was 2nd at a whopping 130/1. My thought is neither is as good as they appear, and the fact that Everfast ran 8th of eleven beaten nearly twenty lengths in the Fountain of Youth would seem to confirm that. 6-Hard Belle has lost his last five races by a combined 60+ lengths, two of them while racing in claiming races....in a word, no. 7-Maximum Security is an intriguing prospect. He debuted in a cheap $16K maiden claiming sprint and ran off the screen to win by an effortless nine lengths under wraps. Came back in a $50K claiming event and again ran off the charts to score by a widening six plus lengths that easily could have been more than a dozen. Stretched to seven furlongs he faced the same $50K claiming types and was even more impressive, scoring by 18 plus lengths with a whopping 102 Beyer speed figure. So, trainer Jason Servis - remember him, winning at a 45% clip at the meet - said, hey.....why not? And so they are giving him his well deserved shot. IF he runs that last number, and IF he gets the distance, and IF Hidden Scroll doesn't fire, well....maybe. 8-Bodexpress is winless after four starts. Twice he was second, the other times not even close. His "claim to fame" is he was fourth behind Hidden Scroll when that one dominated on Pegasus Day. 9-Code of Honor would not be a big surprise, but it can't be expected to say that you are confident he will win. He won his debut at the prestigious Saratoga meet in August, and that's significant because his trainer, Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey rarely has them ready at first asking. He came back in the Grade 1 Champagne where he stumbled badly out of the gate. But he was absolutely flying late to finish a sharp second. He made his 3yo debut here on January 5 in the Mucho Macho Man and he looked MUCH the best on paper, and I made him a solid play. He made an early move approaching the far turn as the 4/5 favorite, then faded badly. He was dismissed by handicappers, including me, in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth at 9/1 odds but the very quick pace set up his late run and he scored a hard fought win over Bourbon War. Now everyone thinks he really is that good. Not convinced - I saw his performance in the Mucho Macho Man.....or maybe I'm just holding a grudge :) 10-Union's Destiny was 6th at odds of 94/1 in the Fountain of Youth and has only a maiden win. Would be a huge upset. 11-Garter and Tie was one of the first three-year-olds locally based that maybe could be considering the Florida Derby early in the meet. He was a prohibitive favorite in the Smooth Air on December 8th but was life and death to get to the wire first by a neck. Will need significant improvement to threaten.
1:00 pm post time
4-Prince Lucky is very likely to be the short-priced favorite at post time, and why not? He is sent out by Todd Pletcher with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. He won the Easy Goer Stakes last spring on the Belmont Stakes undercard in New York then wasn't seen again until a month ago when he ran here in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope. The crowd, including me, ignored him at 7/1 odds and he ran away with the race paying over $16 to win while earning an outstanding 106 Beyer speed figure. No surprise that the beaten favorite, Copper Town - who is also trained by Pletcher - does NOT come back to run here today. The 4yo colt is now 5-for-9 in his lightly raced career. Very dangerous! 1-Tale of Silence: the good news is that in eight of his last ten starts he's raced in stakes events and does have a win in the Grade 3 Westchester at Belmont going this same one-turn mile distance. The bad news is that he was 12/1 that day, won in a photo and that's the ONLY win he's had in nearly a full year of racing. 2-Millionaire Runner has been beaten a combined 100 plus lengths in his six starts and 0-for-4 at this distance, ouch. 3-Be Gone Daddy has won three of his last four and has strong speed figures. BUT those came against allowance foes and he's never tried a stakes event before. He does keep Luis Saez today who was onboard for the last out win at seven furlongs. Give him a chance. If there was a bet for "who runs last today" then 5-All Golden would be the shortest price of the day. He exits back-to-back-to-back drubbings in non-winners of two lifetime claiming races with speed figures that would put him still on the far turn when the winner crosses the finish line. No, never in a million years. 6-Guy Cabballero has run close 2nd and 3rd in five straight vs. allowance foes; would be a surprise.
Race 5: The Cutler Bay Stakes (3yo)
One Mile on the Turf
1:30 pm post time
3-Marquee Prince may be the reason that 1-Seismic Wave has a rider change to Irad Ortiz because Javier Castellano leaves that one to ride here. And you can understand why because 'Prince is already a 4x winner, including two stakes races. He's 2-for-3 on the turf and you can dismiss the one loss as it came in his debut (always tough to win first out going long and on the turf). That trainer Brad Cox - who's the top trainer at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans - ships this stakes winner to run today, HERE is significant because last weekend there were multiple stakes races in New Orleans on the Louisiana Derby undercard.....so Cox must have had this one circled for his 3yo colt. Uh oh.Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott RARELY has his youngsters ready to fire first time out so the fact that 1-Seismic Wave ran 2nd and 3rd in his first two starts, BOTH in photo finishes indicates he has talent. Add in that the conservative Mott sends this sophomore into stakes action right off his maiden win is another indication that he's highly regarded by his connections. Turns back from a 9f win to this one-mile distance and gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz. Would not be a surprise. 2-Forever Mo is making his tenth career start but may have just turned the corner. Three back he won a high-priced maiden event, then came right back to beat $50K optional claimers (unusual for a runner to win right back after their maiden victory) and then most recently was a photo-finish 2nd in a stakes event similar to this. Jockey Manny Franco is down from New York, where he's the leading rider this winter. Don't dismiss too lightly. 4-Art G Is Back may be worth a long look in here as he shows an angle I really like in turf racing. Last time out was his FIRST TRY ON THE GRASS and he ran a career best 83 speed figure, improving his career high number by nearly fifteen points. AND it's worth noting that he was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths despite trying the turf for the first time AND running in a Grade 3 stakes event, losing to a multiple stakes-winning colt. A bit worrisome that local trainer is only 3-for-50 at the meet and that jockey Tyler Gafflione (who's very talented) is 0-for-9 for Spatz. Mixed signals here. 5-Stirling Drive won the Juvenile Turf at Gulfstream Park West in November at 3/1 odds but has been 30/1 or worse in four straight beat-downs in stakes company here at the Championship Meet - no. 6-Insider Trading has only been out twice, both on the main track at Woodbine (which, to be fair, often plays like turf). Not been seen since November. I think this is just a conditioning race to get him ready to run in Canada later this spring. Would be a big surprise. 7-Candy Cushem....hmmmm. Got Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez last time out in a maiden event and he WON by a nose at 7/1 odds. Velazquez pretty picky about when and where he rides, so stick with the colt from maiden to stakes company may be telling. Note he was third beaten less than three lengths by Forever Mo two back, so if you like that one you have to be intrigued by 'Candy.
One Mile on the Turf
2:00 pm post time
The filly version of Race 5....... 1-La Australiana debuted a month ago and surprised everyone when runinning a sharp third at a huge 80/1 price. Still a maiden she'd be as big a surprise today, but you have to at least look if her connections send her out in a stakes while still a maiden. 2-Vow To Recover lost her dirt debut, then won on the turf in her second outing. Came right back to repeat in the Juvenile Filly Turf at Gulfstream Park West across town. Was a good third in the Wait A While Stakes here in December showing he's classy enough to be considered today. She ran fifth in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride last time but improved her speed figure. That's good, but one of the fillies that beat her is back today, that's bad. 3-A Bit Special has done little wrong. She won her debut sprinting five furlongs on the turf, here. Stretched out to two turns going 7 1/2 furlongs AND in a stakes race facing winners for the first time she was 2nd in a photo finish, losing by a neck. Came right back to dominate the Our Dear Peg Stakes, repeated in the Wait A While Stakes; and won yet again in the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant Stakes last time out. A legitimate threat. There are two ways to look at 4-Belle Laura - on the downside, jockey Julian Leparoux leaves this filly to ride back on A Bit Special, and Leparoux is a regular rider for trainer Norm Casse; also 'Laura has only one win from five starts. But on the upside, she ran "ok" in her maiden debut going a mile on the turf (again, tough to win first out going long on the grass) then dominated Churchill Downs maidens on the grass at this same one mile distance. Was a sharp third in the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes at nearly 50/1 odds when facing winners for the first time and that encouraged the connections to try the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was not in the same zip code with superstar filly Newspaperofrecord (but then I'd argue NO ONE is in the same league with that one!). Off a four month layoff she set the pace in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride before tiring late to finish third. Note she'd NEVER been on the lead before. Like the new rider is Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, and she's sure to improve second off the long break. Sneaky good. 5-Trenchtown Cat is a puzzling one.....she was a sharp second with a good speed figure in her turf debut and then won last time out on the grass with authority....and she keeps leading rider Irad Ortiz. BUT, both those races were in five furlong turf sprints. Faces winners for the first time, stakes runners at that, AND has to go two turns for the first time. She'd have to be pretty special to do that - but the barn is winning at a big 31% for the meet. Hmmmm. 6-Positive Skew has big time human connections with trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano while being owned by the powerful Klaravich Stable. If there is a stakes race on the turf in North America you HAVE to strongly consider any Chad Brown runner. She was a just-miss third in a turf sprint debut in New York, then won as the even money favorite here on January 6. If Chad Brown says she's good enough to move from maiden to stakes company, that's good enough for me. Dangerous despite what would appear a tall task. 7-Scat Mommy won at first asking, going long on the turf. That's tough to do. And now comes right back in a stakes. Might be this good, but the fact that the win was at Gulfstream Park West AND that the barn is a woeful 1-for-35 here this winter makes me toss her. 8-Seranitsa is likely to be dismissed as a last out maiden and that it took her EIGHT tries to finally get that elusive first win. BUT, note that six of those races were on the dirt and her two best and fastest races came when on the turf. She was a photo-finish second in her turf debut, earning a 70 Beyer and then won wire-to-wire with a 73 Beyer last out. I think she's more of an early pace presence than a win candidate, but wouldn't be a big surprise if she scored right back.
One and one-sixteenths mile on the Turf
2:30 pm post time
Both 12-Comfy Cozy and 13-Ygritte are drawn near the parking lot and are very likely to be caught wide into the first turn, which may compromise their chances. The former leaped forward on the Beyer speed figure scale when trying turf last time out, moving from a 19 to a 72 when going from a dirt route to a turf route. The fact that he was sent right to the front could mean he can overcome his wide draw if no one on the inside forces a quick early pace. Not really a fan that he was loose on a pretty "comfy" lead through moderate fractions, going shorter, and still gave way. The latter debuts for trainer Christophe Clement with jockey Javier Castellano. The Castellano of three and four years ago when he was riding in remarkable form and won back-to-back Eclipse Awards as the nations jockey would make this one the top choice, but he's been erratic (in my opinion) since changing jockey agents to start the 2017-18 Gulfstream meet.
One and one-sixteenth mile
3:00 pm post time
6-Dunbar Road is a $350K sales graduate and when debuted by Chad Brown here going a one-turn mile four weeks ago was no secret as she ran away as tons the best as the 8/5 favorite. Big jump from MSW to Gr 2, but Brown and owner Peter Brant are very well known to campaign nothing but the highest quality runners. With Irad Ortiz up, this could be a special filly. 3-Point of Honor was no secret when unveiled here in December. The race was originally scheduled for the turf, but the daughter of champion Curlin loved the going and drew off impressively as the favorite. The connections were so encouraged that they shipped to Tampa for the Suncoast Stakes, and I made her my top choice. The crowd wasn't fooled and she was made the 5/2 favorite and won again with authority. It's a big step up from a listed Tampa stakes to a Grade 2 at Gulfstream, but hey - she's unbeaten and yet to be really tested. 1-Safta would be a huge surprise....debuted in a 6f maiden sprint and was third. Now is expected to go two turns in a Grade 2 against proven winners? It is a horse race and the barn wins with 40% of their second time maiden starters. But still, not for me. 2-Shacklette should be a big price, but she would be a good "hunch play" for those of you who remember when Dale Romans campaigned Shackleford through a remarkable career. That started when that colt was more than 50/1 here in the Florida Derby and was 2nd. He won the the Grade 1 Preakness and keyed a huge winning day for me and several racing fans who had me bet him that day. Shacklette went 0-for-10 before breaking her maiden two back, and then came right back to win a one-turn mile starter. Never toss a Romans' three year old without some consideration. 4-Bella Ciao would be another "hunch bet" considering we just returned home from a Mediterranean cruise and spent several days in Italy! Mamma Mia! She was considered good enough to be shipped from summer Gulfstream competition to try the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga and was a solid fourth. Was a no-show 10th in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland. Two good tries and two dismal tries here this winter as a 3yo will almost guarantee she's a big price. 5-Champagne Anyone has hinted she just might be ready to jump up after running third in both the Grade 3 Forward Gal and Grade 2 Davona Dale here. The paired Beyer figures (83-84) are often a sign of impending big effort by a thoroughbred. Hmmmm. 7-Cookie Dough went wire-to-wire in the last two legs of the state-bred Florida Sire Stakes series here, then nearly wired the Grade 2 Davona Dale, leaving champion 2yo filly Jaywalk languishing in the stretch. Always a bit dubious when a horse runs consistently slower numbers then suddenly has a big one (69-68-90) like this one.
One and one-sixteenths mile on the Turf
3:34 post time
The best advice here may be to wait until the 8th race is complete and see how not only the win pool is being played, but even more importantly what are the pay-offs in the multi-race wagers. That's because there are three sophomores in here that could be solid win bets, or not. If one of these is being strongly played I'd really consider them; or if one of them is a fair price and the other two are short prices, I'd be tempted there. Or this simply may be one of those "go figure" kind of results - it is a classic Gulfstream 3yo event! I'd love to have a conversation with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez because he was on both 2-Overbold and 8-Social Paranoia in their last few races. Overbold was 10th beaten 11 lengths in his debut, then a much-improved third but beaten nearly seven lengths in February, chasing a Todd Pletcher repeat winner. Meanwhile, Social Paranoia has run 2nd or 3rd in all five starts including a last-out third in the Grade 3 Pilgrim as a 2yo....yes, as a maiden. So it would seem obvious, especially noting that 'Paranoia's speed figures are much better than any in here, that Velazquez would stick with Social Paranoia - even more likely since that one is trained by long-time boss and personal friend Todd Pletcher. But NO! Johnny V chooses to stick with Bill Mott's colt, Overbold. The dismal first race isn't a surprise since Mott's runner nearly never run sharply in debut, and the second time improvement speaks to potential. Hmmmmm. The other likely winner is Chad Brown's 10-Machine Learning who has the big time connections with Brown, Javier Castellano and the Klaravich ownership group. Debuts today off a string of a dozen well spaced works, several of them quick bullet works. Watch the board!
One Mile on the Turf
4:17 pm post time
9-Proctor's Ledge is a three-time graded stakes winner and if you're willing to look past the last three "ok" races she's a good looking choice. I am willing to overlook those races because despite not hitting the board she ran big Beyer figures, but even more so she just may have tipped her hand with a blistering best-of-53 bullet work two weeks ago in a sizzling :46.3 seconds going a half mile. Gets Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez again who was on board for her last win, in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Mile last spring. Very dangerous. 1-Vendita is a veteran with eight turf wins, but every time she runs in an added money stakes she's no where to be found. Would surprise. 2-Fire Key has never been beyond 7 1/2 furlongs but the one time she went two turns at that distance she was absolutely flying late to be a fast closing third, beaten one length in the South Beach Stakes here. Jockey Manny Franco could provide the upset in here! 3-Mrs. Ramona G won three turn allowance races in a row before finishing a good third in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf behind multiple graded stakes winner and odds-on favorite (and my top choice) Starship Jubilee. Away since that mid-January race she's twice fired off the bench to win. 4-Quebec has raced on the Southern California circuit since late 2017 and was 3rd in a Grade 3 out there. Gets Irad Ortiz, and will be a fair price with only one win since December of 2017, but that was here. 5-Valedictorian surprised the Grade 3 Suwanee River field, including prohibitive 1/5 favorite, multiple graded stakes winning Rymska (who was my bet of the day, booooo). Then came right back to nearly duplicate before Rymska's stable mate Preciuse (also my top play) caught her in deep stretch. The one to catch. 6-Too Charming won the Topical Park Oaks here and is also a front runner meaning that either she and Valedictorian will run each other into submission or Valedictorian will need to take back, which she has shown the ability to do. 7-Midnight Soiree looks overmatched on paper. 8-Andina Del Sur won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks last March in Tampa and has gone winless in eight straight while running "good" in all of them. She won't get my money, but she could win at a fair price.
Seven furlongs
4:49 post time
Allowance races that are "no conditions" like this - as opposed to "non-winners of one," or "non-winners of two" are typically written by the racing secretary for the express purpose of luring a specific horse into the gate. In this field that would appear to be Todd Pletcher's lightly race 3-Gleason who came off an eleven-month layoff last time out and ran a career best 87 speed figure in just his fourth career start. His first two starts saw him win as much the best in a Tampa maiden special weight event then a good second in an Aqueduct entry level allowance. Pletcher sent him to the Grade 2 Penn Mile for his first turf start next and he was distanced - obviously doesn't like the grass. Then came the last out effort. A sharp bullet work and go-to rider John Velazquez should make him the favorite and a likely winner. 4-Rock Doc ran a 90 Beyer last time out when winning a SECOND level allowance, so he may find this field softer. BUT, that was back in June and against NY-breds while today is an open allowance field. 5-Restoring Hope represents what has been one of the BEST handicapping angles of the winter......a runner sent out by trainer Jason Servis, and especially one that's ridden by Irad Ortiz. Servis is winning at an insanely hot 45% clip here against the best competition east of the Rocky Mountains; with Ortiz up they are winning at an even more remarkable 52%, and despite those numbers, for ever $2 bet on them as a duo they average $2.52 in payoffs! Many of Servis' winners have come for owners Gary & Mae West in their iconic black diamond and hoop silks, and this one is owned by them as well. Add in that this colt moves from one of the best barns on the west coast, Bob Baffert (who's won two Triple Crowns of late!) to Servis, and that Servis wins with 40% of his first time acquisitions and you see why he may well go favored!
One Mile on the Turf
5:26 post time
The conditions of this race are for runners who've not won $10K twice, or three races, or for a $62.5K claiming price. And as wide open as those conditions read, that's the way the field is. Any number of these COULD win, while none of them are clear-cut win favorites. The lightly raced 8-Battle of Blenheim moved from the Chad Brown barn into the Todd Pletcher barn and IF he were to run one of his better races, he'd be a solid win candidate. But you have to have some concerns in that he was right there in third turning for home in his first start for Pletcher then stopped to finish 8th as the betting favorite. But, it's the first time in his four year career that he's raced twice in a row without a long layoff, and it's encouraging that Pletcher does NOT enter him in for a tag....must think he has some potential. Wide open.
One and one-half mile on the Turf
6:00 pm post time
This race has all the indicators that someone is going to win and pay a big price, and after the prices are posted you'll look in the program and say, "Huh, go figure how THAT horse won today!" 1-Focus Group is a marathon specialist and should enjoy the distance, but his best efforts have come against allowance rivals and this may be a bit too classy for his ability. Up through 2017 2-Melmich was a near certain win threat, especially on the synthetic main track at Woodbine. But his age has caught up to him and he's now 1-for-his-last twelve. Perhaps more significantly he's only been on the turf three times without a win. BUT you could see the upside in that his last was a just-miss second in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida, the prep race for this. 3-Village King goes for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez, so you have to give him a look. BUT since coming to the US from his native Argentina he is winless. He found himself on the lead in the aforementioned Mac Diarmida, which probably is NOT what he wants. He wilted late. Provided he gets a pace to track he could be far more dangerous today than he appears on paper. 4-Canessar comes from well off the pace and will need not only a solid front runner to set the table, but also racing luck to weave through the field to get to the wire first. On numbers, his two and three back races when finishing second in the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes at Arlington and second in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup. He's a logical candidate with regular Maryland rider Fergal Lynch in for the ride, but he's not a solid favorite. 5-Nessy is another who would be a strong win candidate on his best day, such as when he won a Gr 3 marathon event in Southern California last April. But since then he would not be considered a strong threat. 6-Highland Sky is another like Nessy who on his best day (a 103 Beyer win) would be solid, but he's only seen the winner's circle once in his last twelve starts. 7-Salute the Colonel shows only two wins in the last year, both against state-bred allowance types. Would be an automatic toss but he gets hot-riding Luis Saez. 8-Soglio may be the "best bet" in here if you bet him across the board because in five starts at Gulfstream he's never failed to hit the board.....of course "race track psychology" would be that if you bet him to show today he'd run fourth :) 9-Bigger Picture has twice won a Grade 3 at this distance and is a remarkable 19-for-38 finishing first or second. The "concern" is that BOTH of his wins have come at Sam Houston Park in the Gr 3 John Connolly - all the other times he runs well, but without getting the big check.
Nine furlongs
6:30 pm post time
Before looking at the field it's perhaps important to note that in ALL the big 3yo races which serve as stepping stones to the "Run for the Roses," the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. ALL of them have seen short-priced favorites go down in defeat to big priced horses. So before loading up on one of the favorites today, you may be wise to look for some kind of long shot angle that may pay you should be fortunate enough to win. And how you view the race and make your betting choice MUST go directly through what your opinion is of 1-Hidden Scroll. As mentioned previously in this analysis, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott rarely has them ready to go at first asking, but when Hidden Scroll debuted on January 26th, Pegasus World Cup Day here, he won by FOURTEEN widening lengths, and was visually THE most impressive maiden winner of the meet, and probably the entire winter for ANY three-year-old. He drew off effortlessly without ever being asked to run hard. He was the media darling and an early Kentucky Derby favorite, based largely upon his enormous 104 speed figure....that's a number that would win many Kentucky Derbies over the last twenty plus years, and handily. But there were questions - it was a wet track that day, did he freak in the mud? He was loose on an easy lead which often produces an inflated speed figure. Still the very conservative Mott was quoted as saying they really believed he was the kind of horse that could win the Derby. He made his second, and most recent start in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. And here is where it gets dicey because he was fourth that day as the favorite. If you are against his chances, you'll say that his first race was overrated, was aided by the off going, and he's yet to prove himself around two turns on a fast track. But, conversely, knowing that often the most difficult race for a thoroughbred is his first try vs. winners, you might be forgiving and say that to go two turns for the first time, against winners, in a graded stakes nonetheless....well a fourth place finish was admirable. That's supported by the way he was ridden that afternoon when his jockey had every opportunity to patiently track the longshot leader, but instead fought for the lead all the way around the track. In spite of his inexperience, and all the "firsts" he was dealing with, as they turned for home he forged to the front and was only caught in the last sixteenth of a mile. So.....does he get a more patient ride today and prove the first race hoopla was well-deserved, or does he fade through the lane at today's longer distance? That's where you start today. What say YOU? 2-Current won two of his first three starts, all on turf. His lone try on the main track was dismal. Would be a surprise of major proportions. 3-Harvey Wallbanger ran second three straight times to start his career, then finally scored as a short-priced favorite. Off the maiden win he went into the Grade 2 Holy Bull here and blew by the heavily bet favorite (who is now off the Derby trail) to win at nearly 30/1. His connections said they "knew all the time he was that good." OK, we'll see. How good is 4-Bourbon War? He was sharp in a debut win, then was a decent fourth in the Grade 2 Remsen going today's nine furlongs to close his 2yo campaign. His first start here was a decisive win and got people putting him on their Derby watch lists. He took advantage of the hot pace in the Fountain of Youth to rally past Hidden Scroll and get second money, beaten only 3/4 of a length. Worth noting that the colt he beat two back, Cutting Humor, is a Todd Pletcher 3yo who won a graded stakes last weekend and now is going to the Kentucky Derby. 5-Everfast is probably a good gauge on how good Havey Wallbanger is. When that won scored at 30/1 in the Gr 2 Holy Bull, this one was 2nd at a whopping 130/1. My thought is neither is as good as they appear, and the fact that Everfast ran 8th of eleven beaten nearly twenty lengths in the Fountain of Youth would seem to confirm that. 6-Hard Belle has lost his last five races by a combined 60+ lengths, two of them while racing in claiming races....in a word, no. 7-Maximum Security is an intriguing prospect. He debuted in a cheap $16K maiden claiming sprint and ran off the screen to win by an effortless nine lengths under wraps. Came back in a $50K claiming event and again ran off the charts to score by a widening six plus lengths that easily could have been more than a dozen. Stretched to seven furlongs he faced the same $50K claiming types and was even more impressive, scoring by 18 plus lengths with a whopping 102 Beyer speed figure. So, trainer Jason Servis - remember him, winning at a 45% clip at the meet - said, hey.....why not? And so they are giving him his well deserved shot. IF he runs that last number, and IF he gets the distance, and IF Hidden Scroll doesn't fire, well....maybe. 8-Bodexpress is winless after four starts. Twice he was second, the other times not even close. His "claim to fame" is he was fourth behind Hidden Scroll when that one dominated on Pegasus Day. 9-Code of Honor would not be a big surprise, but it can't be expected to say that you are confident he will win. He won his debut at the prestigious Saratoga meet in August, and that's significant because his trainer, Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey rarely has them ready at first asking. He came back in the Grade 1 Champagne where he stumbled badly out of the gate. But he was absolutely flying late to finish a sharp second. He made his 3yo debut here on January 5 in the Mucho Macho Man and he looked MUCH the best on paper, and I made him a solid play. He made an early move approaching the far turn as the 4/5 favorite, then faded badly. He was dismissed by handicappers, including me, in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth at 9/1 odds but the very quick pace set up his late run and he scored a hard fought win over Bourbon War. Now everyone thinks he really is that good. Not convinced - I saw his performance in the Mucho Macho Man.....or maybe I'm just holding a grudge :) 10-Union's Destiny was 6th at odds of 94/1 in the Fountain of Youth and has only a maiden win. Would be a huge upset. 11-Garter and Tie was one of the first three-year-olds locally based that maybe could be considering the Florida Derby early in the meet. He was a prohibitive favorite in the Smooth Air on December 8th but was life and death to get to the wire first by a neck. Will need significant improvement to threaten.
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