Pegasus Week

January 23 - 27

One of the biggest Saturdays of the week highlighted the best of the winter to date for me.  Unlike the previous six weeks of racing action I was able to have winning days on EVERY day of the week :)  And in spite of the dreary nature of the weather for Pegasus World Cup Day on Saturday it was one of THE best days to enjoy thoroughbred racing.  Here's how the week went down.....

Wednesday January 23

Well, it wasn't the start to the week I was looking for as I failed to get home back-to-back 3/5 favorites in the first two selections of the week.  But in the 6th I had my "best" of the day.  I'm Cardinal was the program favorite in an entry level allowance going five furlongs on the turf.  He had top rider Luis Saez up and could very easily control the pace from the get-go.  Trainer Georgina Baxter was a 30% winner with turf sprinters.  AND last time out, while I don't put a lot of stock into the new track bias symbols used by the DRF it was notable that speedster I'm Cardinal was running over a surface that was playing kindly to closers.  Right to the front he was pressured through a sharp :44.2 half mile.  But as they rounded into the stretch I'm Cardinal asserted himself and he drew off readily.  I was able to collect a big payoff of $45 as he somehow was allowed to leave the gate at odds of 2/1.  Thank you everyone for trying to find another win contender.

Todd Pletcher's Divide was 4/1 in the next race and was in contention until the far turn when he failed to go on with it.  In the 9th the race looked to go strictly through Rose M who was first off the claim for Gilberto Zerpa who is wildly successful with those, striking at a huge 46% hit rate while jockey Emisael Jaramillo was winning at near identical 45% for the barn.  A big bullet work sealed the deal for me.  But, I didn't go in for a lot since it was a 2-lifetime event.  She tracked the leaders three wide down the long run on the backside in this one-turn mile race, then edged up and took the lead willingly.  With each stride through the lane she put more and more daylight between her and the rest of the field.  And I had my second winner of the day to seal a winning afternoon.  

Late running fifth in the tenth and led into the lane before weakening in the finale.  So for the day I finished two-for-seven but in the black :)

Thursday January 24
The weather forecast called for rain so I handicapped with the thinking we'd be off the turf.  So my choice in the opener was an "off-the-turf only" pick.  But it stayed ON the grass and he was 2nd at a nice 5/1 price.  In the third I liked Dragon Moon regardless of the surface.  Stayed on the turf - fourth at 5/2 odds. without really threatening.  As I wrote in my analysis we WERE talking about lightly raced 3yo maidens in for a cheap $12.5K tag so it's not like they are seriously predictable.  BUT with that said, the program favorite looked awfully, AWFULLY legitimate.  Subtle Hope had only been out three times and in her two turf tries she had been soundly beaten.  In her one lone dirt try she was a good second, and all three races had been for double today's price tag.  Now the Beyer figure she earned a 48 - nothing to write home about.  But in comparison she looked formidable.  The other last race Beyers were 39, 0, FTS, 36, 24, 17, and 39.  She broke from the rail and was hustled to the front and quickly had two lengths on the field.  NEVER threatened, going wire to wire as the 3/5 favorite.

About an hour later the Gulfstream on-air analysts were debating just how low would be the daily double hooking the 9th and 10th race where trainer Jason Servis - winning at a nearly 40% clip here - had the odds on favorite in both.  In the paddock prior to the first of the two races it was paying less than even money.  Well, that turned out to be stealing as both Maximum Security and Mybigitalianfriend romped home under wraps - the double paid $4 :)  Because I thought both would be such short odds and while I thought they were likely winners, they didn't seem like "prime time" plays to me, especially at short odds so I only invested the minimum.  Still, I had them both and finished the day with three wins from just four selections, and another profitable day in the bank!

Friday January 25

Today's card featured a series of five $60K starter stakes at the end of the card and as I began analyzing them I thought the names were odd.  Typically stakes are named for people, places or former great horses.  And the names of these five were obviously none of the above.  The were the Chrysaor, the Eos, the Bellophan, the Perseus, and the Andromeda.  I googled the first and smiled when I saw that it (and upon subsequent research) and the other four were all names from Greek mythology......just like Pegasus, and Saturday IS Pegasus World Cup Day.  Very clever.  And I'm sure very VERY few handicappers would have noticed that, so I emailed Gulfstream and told them I did appreciate the cleverness!  In the opener BOTH of the program favorites were first off the claim for barns that excelled with them and I went with Saffie Joseph's Barbarossa.  The 6/5 favorite went right to the front and turned for home with a clear advantage and I was already thinking about how nice it was to start the day on a winning note when both she and the other favorite were nailed on the wire by a 14/1 longshot.  Racing, you gotta love it!  Passed the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th.  In the sixth Balaban figured to be favored in a maiden claiming five-furlong turf sprint.  He'd only been out twice - the first was at Monmouth where he was a sharp third against better than he'd see today.  The second was an off-the-turf affair that was easy to draw a line through.  The Beyer earned in that third beat every number in the field except three runners who were 0-for-17, 0-for-15, and 0-for-22.  There was a first timer from the Larry Rivelli barn and as I wrote, if this were in Chicago at Arlington that would be the play, but not here.  Lastly, Servis - winning at 38% overall - was the winningest trainer in North America with turf sprinters and today he had Irad Ortiz who's scoring at an insane 49% for Servis here.  Wow-squared!  As I watched the live feed I checked the multi-race payoffs and saw Balaban was an overwhelming choice so I upped the $15 bet to a BET of the Day $25 play.  He tracked the 5/1 leader into the lane and looked to be ready to blow by.....but he never did.  In the final fifty yards it was oh-so-close.....PHOTO finish!  I thought I'd won, but the slow-mo replay was not conclusive.  Oh brother.....but as you can see in the photo (above left) he was the winner by the narrowest of nose hairs!

It was so close that if I'd had the official runner-up I'd be howling, but I didn't and I cashed for a big $60 payoff!  Pressed the pace before weakening to 7th in the 7th, then led into the stretch - seemingly in command - at 3/5 before the 7/2 second choice blew by.  But in the final bet of the day, the original "BEST BET" of the day came in the Perseus Starter Stakes going seven furlongs.  The program favorite was Uno Mas Modelo who had run twice at the meet already.  In his last seven starts he'd won five of them with the only two losses coming in graded stakes.  The try in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at nine furlongs at Belmont was just a dumb idea for a sprinter.  In the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector here he was a good 4th.  But his first start here was the most impressive.  On Opening Day he completely missed the break going today's 7f distance in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit, but he was up in the shadow of the wire.  He laid over the field here I thought, even though GP race track announcer Pete Aiello said on the pre-race day show he thought he was vulnerable.  Duh Pete.  Broke cleanly, tracked the leaders in fourth until heads turned for home and then blew by to win going away as much, MUCH the best.  Cashed for nearly $35 to close out a 2-for-5 afternoon with a solid profit yet again.  WHOOO HOOOOO!  This is some serious momentum heading into Pegasus World Cup Day!

January 26:  Pegasus World Cup Day

To see the wonderful tale from today, click HERE - what a great day with four wins here on track and ELEVEN wins overall.  Included in the two wins at Gulfstream were BOTH of the Pegasus races!

Pegasus Day Highlights

It was a wonderful day to be sure.

Sunday January 27
Because of the vast amounts of rain we got Friday night and all day Saturday I KNEW we'd be off the turf today, but I wasn't positive.  I'd had such success through the week and on Saturday I seriously considered just skipping the Sunday card to "preserve" the great week I'd had.  But I decided before doing that I'd want to see just how many "live" selections I'd have today.  As it turned out from the twelve race card I'd passed on six races and there were four selections on the grass, so I was left with only two "live" races.  So I stuck with them.  The fourth was a maiden claimer and the favorite, Singsong Bird looked legitimate in a weak field.  Flying late, but couldn't quite get to the winner, second.  And in the tenth I'd doubled the bet on Browns Gap.  He was an old veteran warrior who loved to win.  But what tempted me was that trainer Saffie Joseph not only had claimed him last out (27% first off the claim), but had re-claimed him for THE FOURTH TIME!  He must see something in him special.  And today Tyler Gaffione was on board - he is winning at a huge 45% when on Joseph runners.  I was surprised that GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti did not like him, but it helped my price as Brown came rolling up late into the short stretch/first finish line and was edging clear late at even money.  I'm a winner at Gulfstream again!

But the outcome of the day overall depended on the stakes races in Texas today.  At Sam Houston Race Park it was their "Racing Festival" and featured six stakes races.  I was able to get the past performances for free and I looked them over.

It was "obvious" to me that a near certain winner SHOULD come in the featured Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic.  Originally I tabbed three stakes, all with double investment plays.  But Sunday morning I revisited the past performances.  I had picked Hogy to run down the speed in the Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint, but the more I looked at it I didn't think he was worthy of the play.  He was FLYING late, but couldn't get within a length of the longshot winner and was in a very tight photo just to get second.  Wise decision.  In the eighth race, the Grade 3 John Connolly Turf Cup I thought Bigger Picture would repeat for the third year in a row.  But as I went through the past performances again I still felt he'd win, but he'd not won since winning here last year.  Maybe a year older, a step slower.  Hmmmm.  Decided to stay with the play but back down the bet to the minimum.  He made a big middle move, swept by on the turn and drew off as easily best, nearly a pole to the good.

The last bet of the day and the week looked like a slam dunk.  Multiple Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou was running in the Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic.  OK, first, she is a "multiple" Gr 1 winner due to the comical and unbelievable DQ of champion Monomoy Girl in the $1 Million Cotillion on Pa Derby Day.  Still, she is a multiple graded stakes winner and today's mile and a sixteenth IS her best distance.  As I watched the live feed she opened up at prohibitive 1/9 odds.  Maybe I should up the bet?  Some of the comments by the two analysts in the paddock led me to compare the Beyer figures she had as they indicated she was a standout and I didn't remember it that way.  And I was right, while she SHOULD win and had CLEARLY faced better, on the Beyer scale she was simply a length or so better.  And then as the odds did NOT move from 1/9 I thought - why risk an additional $10 or $20 to win $1.00 or $2.00 extra?  The win is a win and I'll take it if it comes.  She was breaking from post seven in a field of seven AND this was her first start of the year with obviously bigger targets down the road.  She was four wide into the turn before Mike Smith dropped her inside to save ground.  But then the pace slowed dramatically and she would be forced 3-4 wide on the far turn and to rally from last.  In mid-stretch it looked dicey but her big acceleration and class carried her to the wire just in time.  You can see a much better look at how close it was in the second photo below.

So, for the day I was 3-for-4 and had another profitable day - and finished with 22 wins from 48 picks, a huge 46% for the week!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO - Go me!

January 26: Pegasus Day

The TWO Richest Races In North America

It was a very good day.....not only as a handicapper, but as an racing adventure.  And that means more than it may sound like because the weather was far, FAR from "picture-post card" like.  In fact early this morning I even hinted to Keith that if he were not visiting from up north I might have been tempted to stay home and play online.  But I am SO glad we went and were a part of this great day of racing, the first REALLY big day on the national racing calendar.  It was many months ago that I found tickets had gone on sale for today's big event, and I was happy that my buddy Keith agreed to come down and share the big day with me again, as he'd done last year.  The event is pricey, but let's be fair - it's truly a world class event and in my opinion it's VERY much worth paying a "few extra dollars" for my usual seat that typically runs between $3 and $20 on a typical Championship Saturday afternoon of racing.

The local weather was in the mid-50s and gloomy with a steady rain as wee left the house today at about 10:am.  We wanted to beat the crowd, get a nice, up-close parking spot (because of the weather) and get settled in with plenty of time before the 11:30 am first post.  Before we left I had gone online and to no surprise found out that many of the races were off the turf.  I had actually thought about re-handicapping the races that were off the turf, but then I rethought that.....I had felt like the card was really competitive and I was happy that I was disciplined enough in my initial betting strategy to not try and force any big bets.  So I figured I would just pass the off-the-turf races unless there were circumstances that led to to a strong opinion.  That was also my thinking about if any of my top picks scratched from either dirt or turf, just pass the race.  Of course the first thing Keith and I did upon our arrival was to go to our seats and have the obligatory photo op.

It was encouraging that while it had rained and it was chilly, and there were off-and-on showers, our seats were NOT wet.  As long as it didn't pour and/or have a lot of wind we'd be out of the weather.  The first race was carded for 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 3yo maidens, and now it was off the grass.  The perfect kind of race to pass.  I found it interesting as I mentioned to Keith, that here you have a full field of turf maidens, lightly raced three-year-olds.  Multiple scratches, the surface change, AND the sloppy track.....still, the crowd nailed the winner as the 6/5 favorite!  In the second I had a Todd Pletcher runner who went off at a huge 15/1 price.  Raced in contention throughout and outran his odds when a good fourth.  The third race was the first of the NINE stakes events, this was the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint.  With the winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint having a rematch with the 2nd place finisher of that race - they were a neck apart! - I figured certainly this would be one of the races they'd keep on the grass.  But it wasn't.  And my top choice, the BC Champion Stormy Liberal who would have had plenty of pace to run at here, scratched out.  That left World of Trouble, the BC 2nd place horse in the race as the main speed of the speed.  He was already some handicapper's BEST of the day, and he'd run away on a sloppy Tampa main track as a prep for this.  I made him my BEST BET of the day.  As they hit the far turn it was shades of last Saturday when XY Jet had been a prohibitive favorite in the Sunshine Millions Sprint and was dueled into submission as the 1/5 favorite.  But World of Trouble easily put away his challenger despite the swift pace and was a daylight winner, geared down through the final 16th of a mile.  I had my first winner of the day!

I had picks from Laurel, Aqueduct, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita to complement my Gulfstream picks and the next race up for me was the Laurel opener.  As Keith looked over the Daily Racing Form he remarked that the first two races at Laurel looked to have overwhelming favorites.  I asked who did he think they were.  He said the #1 in the first and the #2 in the second.  I looked at my sheet and I found that odd because I had the #1 in the first, listed as the 6/5 favorite, and I had the 4/5 favorite in the second but I had him listed as #1.  I asked who was the "2" in the second race and he showed me in the form.  Uh oh - it was MY horse, I had the wrong number.  Keith decided to play the double and I wasn't that confident so I stuck to my plan.  I liked Rag Time to win the first and made him a double investment because of the comined fifty-six races run by the rest of the field, only one Beyer would beat his LAST FOUR figures.  As they turned for home I wasn't very confident that the 1/5 favorite was going to get up in time, but thank goodness for the "longest stretch in the US" at Laurel and he was able to score, with me cashing for close to $15 on my second win from three picks.

Todd Pletcher's Ranger up was the 5/2 co-favorite in the fourth and was a finishing third at Gulfstream.  Interesting to note - and note it we did - in the first three races here, the winner had been the front runner....in this race at 9/1 so it wasn't just that the best horse was also the speed of the race.  Something to keep in mind!  The second at Laurel saw my pick, Sierra Leona sent away as the 4/5 favorite.  I was a little less confident in her as she shipped in from NY and was plunging to a $5K claiming race after they'd claimed her at Gulfstream earlier last year for $35K.  Right to the front and easily wired the field.

Keith had the double, and it paid $5.80 but he had made it a $100 play!  Good for him!  I came right back with my fourth winner just twenty minutes later at Aqueduct when Shelly Ann wore down the long-time leader and scored as the 3/5 favorite with my double investment on her.  When I went to make my next bet, "my girl" Karen - one of the twins that I frequently bet with asked how I was doing so far and I happily replied I'd won with four of five picks, to which she said, well, let's keep this going!

My pick scratched out of the Ladies' Turf Sprint in the GP 5th, so I was disciplined and passed.  The winner, on the dirt, went wire-to-wire....seeing a pattern!  I missed at Laurel and was planning to pass the 6th at Gulfstream, the South Beach Stakes on the turf for 3yo.  It stayed on the turf but my choice, Bill Mott's Capla Temptress had scratched.  Maybe the yielding turf....maybe the wide post?  But then with about twenty minutes to post it occurred to me, one of the other fillies in the race was ALSO trained by Bill Mott!  Number 9, Dolce Lili.  Could it be that Mott liked this filly better?  And I liked that John Velazquez was on board.  I made her the bet.  When the handicappers came on air to analyze the race all three of them talked about who SHOULD win the race....Dolce Lili!  She sat mid pack to the stretch, was eased into the clear by Johnny V and blew by the leaders to score comfortably.  Great decision Mr. Mark!

And she paid a generous $8.60 so I cashed for over $20 on my fifth winner on the afternoon!  The fifth at Aqueduct was nearing the gate as the prices came up for Dolce Lili and I watched the race from my seat on my phone via xpressbet.  This was a Maiden Special sprint going 5 1/2 furlongs for three-year-olds.  What made this race so unique was the TEN of the ELEVEN entered were all first time starters.  But the one was NOT a debut runner, Dr. Lloyd had run a very impressive third behind two runners who had daylight separation AND Dr. Lloyd was daylight clear of the field while running five-wide.  AND the 75 speed figure would win most NY maiden races.  So, I figured, while we have no clue what the other ten will do today, we "KNOW" that Dr. Lloyd has some ability.  Toss in that trainer Linda Rice is a good 32% with 2nd time maidens and Junior Albarado wins at a 29% clip for Rice and it all added up to what I thought was a decisive winner.  I tripled the bet.  Dr. Lloyd sat just off the speed to the turn, moved up on the rail to challenge and they dueled to the top of the lane.  Then he found a whole other gear as he widened with each and every stride without ever being asked to score by nearly a pole.  ULTRA impressive!

I cashed for over $25 on my SIXTH win already!  Missed at both Oaklawn and Laurel with short-priced favorites and then Breeders' Cup Champion Shamrock Rose was running in the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie for fillies and mares at the same 7f of that Grade 1 event.  With all the other dirt winners having won on the lead I said to Keith we'd find out about the track bias here because 'Rose would NOT be on the lead.  I thought she'd run mid-pack, and she did.  She made up ground to be 4th, but the lightly raced filly Dream Pauline, my second choice slipped up the rail from a pressing position to get the win.  The sixth at Aqueduct was a first level allowance event.  Chad Brown was sending out Build To Suit who had crossed the line first in four of his first five starts.  He'd been DQ'd from his initial win.  Broke his maiden, ran sharply vs. winners first time out when second, then had beaten first entry level allowance rivals and then second level allowance runners.  Two problems to consider.....first, that last win came in October OF 2017!  And second, all those races were against state-breds and today he faced open company.  Well, the Beyer figures said he fit and Chad Brown is great off the layoff so I made a $5 bet on #4.  I was standing in the simulcast area as they began loading and I noted #4 was an unbelievable 12/1 price.  WHAT?????  Opened my xpressbet app and saw that Build To Suit was not #4, but #3 - and I had that on my sheet.  I dashed to the window as the last three were loading, got the ticket canceled and then got the right ticket just before the gates opened!  Build To Suit sat mid pack through the turn then four of them lined up across the track with the inner-most runner floating all of them about three paths off the rail.  Top Aqueduct rider Manny Franco seized the opportunity and burst through on the rail, opened up and won going away.

While he wasn't 12/1, Build To Suit paid a hefty $10.80 and I was cashing for nearly $30.....so thankful I caught the wrong number on the ticket!  At this point I was working on a seven-for-thirteen afternoon.  But I hit a skid.  2nd at 2/1 when Santa Monica took the lead a furlong out in the Grade 3 La Prevoyante and was nailed in the final fifty yards; 6th at 2/1 at Santa Anita; eighth and last in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper here when Todd Pletcher's Copper Town was the 6/5 favorite, moving third on the outside at the top of the stretch and stopped like he was shot.  Second as the 1/2 favorite in the Aqueduct feature; third as the 6/5 favorite in Santa Anita's Cal Cup Sprint; 6th at 2/1 at Oaklawn; and fifth at 3/1 in the Grade 3 William L. McKnight here.  After watching the McKnight from my seat I went inside to watch the 9th from Laurel, a six furlong sprint - and that's significant to the story - for first level allowance runners.  As I scanned through the entries here immediately Two Dozen Roses jumped off the page.  Initially because when I take a first run through the pp's I am looking at trainers and recent races, and the trainer of record for 'Roses was Todd Pletcher!  Wait, he next to NEVER runs a horse in Maryland!  Let's take a closer look ...... Two Dozen Roses had been out only five times with only a maiden win.  But then I saw it.  Her last four races, all losses, were in ROUTE races.  The one and ONLY sprint race had been in her debut - at Saratoga none the less - and she'd won!  And today she's in a sprint?  Too good to pass up.  She was outrun to the far turn and was still next to last as heads turned for home.  Truly at this moment I had the thought that I HAD said to Keith that if he played Laurel today to keep in mind that NO LEAD is safe at Laurel because it seems like it's the longest stretch in America.  Inside the 1/8th pole, still fourth, but making up some ground.  Not enough though.  Then inside the 16th pole she seemed to find high gear and she accelerated between horses and burst to the front before hitting the wire!  YES!

Not only had I snapped the skid with my eighth winner, but somehow 'Roses paid $7.60 and my double investment got me back close to $40!  Here we go!  On to the final races of the day!  The sixth at Oaklawn was an allowance race going a mile and a sixteenth.  Two years ago Todd Pletcher sent out then-3yo One Liner to back-to-back wins to kick off his career, both at Gulfstream.  Then shipped the colt to Oaklawn for the Grade 3 Rebel.  Won with a career best 102 Beyer and looked to be on the Derby trail.  But injuries knocked him out and he wasn't seen for nearly a year.  He'd not won since, and had moved into the barn of Steve Asmussen.  But to me, here's what I saw....dropping out of back-to-back graded stakes, returning to a track and distance he'd won at AND where he'd earned a lifetime Beyer figure.  Doubled the bet and he went off at 6/5.  Sat fourth to the turn, then made "the move" three wide cruising to the leaders as they turned for home.  Already I was thinking of how I'd describe this winner on camera.  Then he stopped.  Literally.  The entire field blew by him and he finished dead last, almost eased.  Sigh......

Next up was the Grade 1 $7 Million Pegasus Turf.  The original plan two years ago was to implement this race in the second year of the Pegasus World Cup.  But they didn't last year and I'd read several places that the reason was because the Europeans - who they hoped to lure here - finished their seasons in November and didn't start again until March, or later.  So (a) no one was going to stay in training for almost three months for a single race; and (b) no one was going to start a month or two early for this race.  It just didn't fit the calendar.  Secondly, most of the "big name" turf runners began gearing up late in the GP meet (or Santa Anita, maybe the Fair Grounds) with the major races coming through the summer and into the fall.  So you not only wouldn't get the Euros in January, you weren't going to get the best of the Americans either.  About a month ago when they probables were discussed in the racing news publications I thought it looked like a pretty average group that probably were allowance level, MAYBE Gr 3 level and here they'd be running for $7 Million.  But kudos to the Racing Secretary's Office because the field was a good one - not the best Gr 1 you'll ever seen on turf, but strong enough.  The headliner was Bill Mott's Yoshida who had won the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day over yielding ground like this.  Then last summer he won the Grade 1 Woodward on DIRT at Saratoga.  Takes a very talented horse to be that good to win on both surfaces at that level.  But I didn't like him.  I preferred Chad Brown's Bricks and Mortar.  He'd come off a LONG layoff to win impressively a month ago and I thought he had reason to improve.  Also liked that he was 2-for-2 at Gulfstream and 5-for-7 overall.  Just the right spot and he was 5/1 in the program.  Well apparently the crowd saw what I did because he vied for favoritism until close to post time, then Yoshida took a lot of money.  Jockey Irad Ortiz had him close up early but when the pace was too fast he eased back to near the rear.  On the far turn he moved up, moving before Yoshida, and got clear into the lane.  Yoshida was gathering momentum but was a few lengths back and wide.  Then he hit a wall while Bricks and Mortar found another gear and blew by everyone to win going away!

I had the winner of the co-feature, and as Keith and I said afterwards....it was pretty cool that we had just seen THE richest race ever run on turf in North America!  And of course I had the winner on top of that :)  We headed downstairs because for the first time today it was not just drizzling or misting, it had started to RAIN.  Keith looked over the Form to make his pick and I went out to the paddock.  In spite of the weather the paddock was packed - just as it should be for a $9 Million race!  So cool to be here I thought again!

When I re-joined Keith we discussed the field.  First, compared to the first two years, this field had quality from top to bottom.  BUT, with that said, unless something extraordinary were to happen we both felt you could easily toss eight of the twelve out as "likely" win candidates, and the other two were much more likely to be the horse to split the two favorites.  And those favorites figured to produce the winner - BOTH Breeders' Cup champions.  Accelerate had won six of seven in 2018 including the Breeders' Cup Classic, and it was worth noting that the first two editions of this race had been won by the Breeders' Cup Classic winner!  His main rival would be City of Light who had been dazzling in winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.  Three things led me to my pick in the race.  First, I remembered handicapping the BC Classic and one thing that impressed me about Accelerate was that his "right" distance seemed to be the mile and a quarter of the Classic because he didn't seem to have natural speed, just an ability to grind away at a top cruising level.  Second, the lone loss in 2018 for Accelerate had come at Oaklawn AT THIS 9 furlong distance....aha, see?  And who beat him that day?  None other than.....wait for it......City of Light!  Uh Oh!  But to be fair Accelerate had lost narrowly and then come back to beat City of Light soundly next time out - but at a mile and a quarter.  So they were had split two races.  The crowning angle for me was that while Accelerate had posted a spectacular :58 and change bullet work for this race, it had been done in So Cal before shipping here.  Conversely, City of Light had posted a BEST-OF-105 bullet work at Santa Anita and then shipped in early;  and had worked here, posting of a dazzling BEST-of-104 bullet over the Gulfstream track.  I had no doubt that Accelerate would run well, but it seemed to me that City of Light was sitting on a monster race, comparable to his Breeders' Cup victory which was arguably the most visually impressive of the Championship Saturday races.

Keith and I had watched the Pegasus Turf from the landing half way up the stairs to our seats and that was the plan, but with the rain falling we sat in our seats and as you can see our attire reflected the weather, but it couldn't dampen our excitement for the big event soon to unfold right in front of us.  When I made my final decision and had written my analysis I gave the edge to City of Light, and enough of an edge to double the bet.  But then on Friday I noticed on Xpressbet that they were offering the same promotion that they had last year.....

I had been able to double my bet, with "no risk" last year on Gun Runner as I knew if he didn't win he would almost certainly hit the board and I felt the same way today about City of Light.  AND I felt even better about "upping the ante" because of the way speed had been playing today.  The way I saw the race was "need to lead" Patternrecognition would gun to the lead from post 12.  Good for him - he'd never been two turns, much less this distance.  City of Light would break sharply from post three and quickly be in front of everyone else; if jockey Javier Castellano was smart - the only question for me - he'd let Patternrecognition cross him, then ease to his outside to be in the clear and track him while "leading" the rest of the field including Accelerate who I thought would be four or five off the leaders.  The gates opened and City of Light was quickly two lengths clear of the field, except for Patternrecognition who was sprinting like it was a five-furlong turf race to get to the front.  Easily crossed City of Light and the two were daylight clear of the next flight, including Accelerate.  On the far turn City of Light readily went by the "cheap speedster" who folded up without resistance.  But track announcer Pete Aiello called out the pace time in a very strong :46.4 for the opening half mile I wondered if City of Light had gone too fast.  As they made the bend into the stretch Accelerate was now on City of Light's hip and "the stage was set" as Pete called it.  But then in an instant Castellano let out a notch and City of Light was suddenly four in front and pulling away with each and every stride.

I was cheering as I was filming, knowing that I'd nailed the Pegasus World Cup winner for the third consecutive year!  And just as Keith and I had predicted it was a longshot, 30/1 Seeking The Soul who edged by Accelerate in deep stretch to split the favorites.  In an interesting side note, Seeking the Soul had last been seen in the Breeders' Cup when he ran second to......City of Light in the BC Dirt Mile!  The exacta paid over $80 if you were clever enough to put that together.  For me, strictly a win better, my "prime time" play was worth almost $60 and capped a strong 4-win day locally (all in stakes action) and would key an 11-win day with a solid profit.

I had four late races to watch once we returned home as we walked to the car in the cold rain.  I finished a disappointing fifth as the 4/5 favorite in the Oaklawn feature, my second choice wired the field and paid $9....sigh;  I was the even money favorite in the 7th at Santa Anita and clear at the 1/8th pole only to be caught on the wire; and finished a fast-closing 2nd at 5/2 in the Unusual Heat Stakes at Santa Anita.  Wait.....I said four races :)  In the ninth at Santa Anita, down the unique hillside turf course S Y Sky wired the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint at 2/1 odds for my 11th and final win of the day!  HORRAY!

It was a great, great day of racing and I so enjoyed having my buddy along with me for the experience!  One final note - as I mentioned at the top how BIG an event today was, I cannot remember the last time, even on Florida Derby Day, when the front page of the local sports section featured the races.....and a giant photo!  And not one but two articles about the day - wow.

Pegasus Day 2019 Highlights

Pegasus Day Fashion Photos

Sunshine Millions Day

January 19

The 17th running of the Sunshine Millions was a good day for me and I really enjoyed being on track for the day.  I thought Amnesty, a Pletcher firster who'd drawn $650K at the sales auction was a big time play in the opener.  But I didn't want to immediately be in a big hole after one race so I tripled the bet instead of going all in.  Away last, made up some ground at 3/5 to be a disappointing fifth.  The opener at Aqueduct was a MSW for sophomores as well and I thought it looked pretty wide open.  But, Fangirl had posted back-to-back blazing bullet moves and that was enough for me to double the bet.  Stretch duel, PHOTO FINISH!

I'm a winner and cashed for over $25!  Next up was the third from Gulfstream and it was a claiming event going 6 1/2 furlongs.  If Body High was "right" he was your winner.  He'd rattled off a series of wins here last summer at prohibitive odds against far tougher.  But this was the Championship Meet and he had a new trainer.  I didn't like the program favorite who'd won last time out for me two weeks ago.  Moved from a 1-for-60 barn to an 0-for-30 barn.  Yikes.  Body High went right to the front, led into the turn then surrendered the advantage and was third into the lane.  But she re-rallied - very unusual in thoroughbred racing and the duel was on through the final 16th.....PHOTO FINISH!

Two photo wins in a row!  WHOOOO HOOOO.  The BET of the Day at Gulfstream came in the first of the four Sunshine Million Stakes, the Sprint.  XY Jet is one of the best sprinters in the world and the connections had openly stated they wanted to go to Dubai and win the Group 1 $2 Million Golden Shaheen after XY Jet had twice been out-photoed on the wire.  He'd used this race as a warm-up and had proven best each of the last two years.  He'd been away, but he typically ran sparingly AND he had a big bullet work.  There looked to be other speed, but he was REAL speed and I was sure he'd out sprint the cheap challengers.  Right out of the gate he was challenged.  And they dueled through a :21 and change quarter.  He seemed to get a head in front through the turn and I thought here he goes.  But the challenger would not give in.  It was XY Jet who yielded, tiring to fourth while the "cheap speed" held for 2nd when a LONG shot blew by from the back.  A win here and I'm a winner for the day.  Now I've got some ground to make up!  In the opener at the Fair Grounds Flashy Brew went right to the front and never looked back.  Fifth at GP in a 3yo maiden claiming event at 2/1 and third at 9/5 at Aqueduct.  Next up was the Sunshine Millions Turf.  Trainer Michael Maker had cross-entered Big Changes here and in one of the stakes races at the Fair Grounds where Big Changes was based.  But the weather in New Orleans was forecast to be thunderstorms and high winds with the chances of staying on the grass slim at best.  So I thought 'Changes would show up here.  On paper he looked much the best with the only question being his off-the-pace style.  One of my favorite speedsters, Class and Cash looked to be the one to catch.  Sure enough, that one sat just off the cheap front runner to the far turn, then glided to the front under restraint.  Meanwhile Javier Castellano had give the "GO" cue to Big Changes who was picking off horses one by one.  Before they got to the furlong pole you could tell he would not be denied.  Opened up and held a safe lead to the wire!

My double investment returned nearly $20 on my fourth win of the day, and second on track.  Second at 9/2 at the Fair Grounds and then third as the 3/2 favorite in Aqueduct's featured Grade 3 Toboggan.  The sixth at Tampa was a Maiden Special event for three-year-olds going a mile on the turf.  No one stood out, but on the outside was a Chad Brown first time starter, Digital Age.  He was owned by the powerful Klaravich Stables.  All that adds up to WINNER!  But wait.....why is Digital Age running at Tampa when obviously there are many 3yo MSW turf races here at his home base?  And throw in the wide post.....hmmmm.  No, he's got to have some ability and in this field that should be enough.  But then he had one of the WORST trips I've ever seen.  He didn't break with the field, and when he did go he hopped in the air first.  Now in stride into the stretch he veered outward and was then caught four or five wide around the turn and down the backside.  Still he was within range and the rider moved between horses on the far turn to save some ground.  Then he was squeezed and checked hard turning for home.  The jockey made a near 90 right turn to get into the clear and then WOW what a kick as he blew by the field to win going away.  Mark this one down for next time, he looks to have some talent!

Not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE straight runner-up finishes followed.  My comments read...... (3/2) stalked, led, caught / (8/5) very wide on turn into short stretch, (5/2) saved ground, led in the stretch, no match for the winner; (2/1) dueled, led briefly, (3/5) had the rail, swung at least 4-wide, gaining, just missed.....OBJECTION against the winner for interference - disallowed.  Sigh.... what a sequence over a time frame of an hour and a half.  We now reached the tenth at Gulfstream, the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf.  At first glance I liked Starship Jubilee.  But wait a minute, she'd been my choice at odds-on in the Claiming Crown Tiara on Opening Day.  Maybe she's a play against.  But then as I scanned down her past performances it came back to me - this happened last year.  In fact, last year she'd run in a graded stakes at Woodbine and run well without winning; came to Gulfstream and disappointed in the Tiara at short odds; then won the SSM F & M Turf.  This year she'd lost a close graded stakes at Woodbine, came here and disappointed in the Tiara and now..... OK, I'm on board and tripled the bet.  She was asked early to gain position from post thirteen and tracked the leaders in third to the far turn.  Opened up at will and ran away as much, MUCH the best!  Horray!

Cashed for over $30 and I'm back in the winner's circle!  Missed in the SSM Classic when fifth at 6/1 then fourth in a Santa Anita maiden event on the turf.  I was staying for the finale at Gulfstream before heading home to watch the Panthers on TV and watch my last few races via replay.  The 9th at the Fair Grounds was the Louisiana Handicap and how could you go against Honorable Duty?  He was coming off a layoff and EVERY time he'd done this in his pp's he'd won!  Here at the FG he had compiled a record of 5 wins and a second from six starts!  AND at this 8 1/2 furlong distance he was a perfect 3-for-3!  BIG TIME!  Rallied on the turn at 8/5 and into the lane.......nothing.  WOW.  That and the XY Jet loss sealed the no big profit for you day.  But still, one more live race to watch.  The 12th and finale was a claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth over the inner turf.  Mission Driven had shown an immediate reversal of form when taken over by Jorge Navarro at Monmouth last summer after running the first half of the year in Southern California.  He'd won twice for a $16K price tag.  Toss the last when rained on the dirt.  Toss the two back when he tried nine furlongs and LED after 8 1/2 furlongs.  Back to the right distance and in for a tag of wait for it......that's right $16K!  How could he be 5/1 in the program!  He was mid-pack to the far turn, swung out into the clear but by mid-stretch was still seventh and at least half a dozen lengths behind.  But he caught the eye and I turned on the camera.....surging.......UP IN TIME!

And the best part, he went off at better than 7/2 so I cashed for almost $50!  NICE!  As I headed to the car I counted up the results.  Twenty races - seven wins with four tickets in my pocket.  To maintain the 30% plus winning average I needed to get at least two of the final picks home.  The 7th at Santa Anita was a MSW sprint for three-year-olds and there was not one but two high-priced Bob Baffert sophomores.  Scalper had looked really good on paper on opening day and granted he did have a little trouble at the start.  But still his even sixth did NOT impress, but he'd worked well since.  Dessman was a debuting colt who'd drawn a $750 sales bid from his connections and he too had been working sharply.  That's where I went.  He was off a beat slowly but got in gear to be third before they hit the far turn.  Swept up under a hand ride and drew off impressively.  Uh oh, another good looking 3yo for Baffert!

Missed in the Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds - the first step towards the Fair Grounds Oaks and hopefully the Kentucky Oaks.  But then I had two BIG plays to close out the day.  In the featured Grade 2 Palos Verdes at Santa Anita, two-time Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Roy H was kicking off his 2019 year with an eye towards the Group 1 Golden Shaheen - where he'd run third behind XY Jet last March.  He'd won this race as a prep at 1/5 handily and it looked to be a repeat for the champ.  EASY - Paco Lopez only had to be sure not to fall off as he never, ever asked him to run.

My second winner at Santa Anita :)  The last play was my BET of the Day at the Fair Grounds.  Wynn Time figured to be odds-on in the DF Kenner Stakes going six furlongs.  He was 7-for-10 in his career and two of those losses came to multiple graded stakes sprinter Whitmore at his home track in Arkansas.  He was 5/4-1-0 locally and 6-for-9 at today's distance.  He was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite but he wasn't nearly as impressive as Roy H.  He had to work hard to get to the front and had to work hard through the final furlong, but he won and I cashed for the tenth time.

It was a VERY good day!

It's hard NOT to pay attention when Acacia makes her picks