Sunday, December 9, 2018

Caribbean Classic Day

December 8th

The second Saturday of the Championship Meet was a big day....not only from a marketing standpoint as "Caribbean Classic Day," but also for me personally.  I so enjoyed the day and thought many times that THIS is why I love the winter racing season and specifically the Gulfstream Championship Meet so much.  Here's how the day unfolded......

I had picks in all six juvenile stakes locally and in the opener I liked the even money favorite....never picked up her feet and ran sixth.  In the second I liked Sweet Diane in the one-turn mile Hut Hut.  She sat the perfect trip in third to the turn, glided to the front and opened up by two.  But a 13/1 closer nailed her inside the final 100 yards, second.  Sigh....patience my son, the wins will come.  I tripled the bet on my first bet at Laurel on Thesweetesttaboo.  Just looked tons the best on paper and was sent off as the even money favorite.  Right to the front and cruising loose on the lead....while she seemed well within herself the fractions seemed too fast.  Yep, faded to fourth through the stretch.  The third at Gulfstream was the Buffalo Man Stakes, a six furlong sprint for juveniles.  The favorite was Jackson and that's significant because he was my BEST BET on the Sunshine Millions Preview Day card at Gulfstream Park West, and he won.  BUT, that day after a slow break and a wide trip he cleared into the lane and looked gone.  But he was life and death to hold on.  You could blame the trip but he had "the look" of a declining form horse to me so I went against him.  I liked Zenden who had been an ultra-impressive debut winner in September.  He had won that day in spite of trouble AND two had exited the race to win.  The rider was Emisael Jaramillo, who interestingly had ridden Jackson in the SSM Preview.  Hmmmm, did he decide to ride Zenden or did top rider Luis Saez bump him off?  Regardless I went with the new face.  The two of them dueled through the turn and opened up six on the field.  But at the furlong pole it was Zenden doing the better work and I had my first winner of the day!

Less than ten minutes later I scored at Laurel.  It was an $8K claiming sprint and trainer Lacey Gaudet, sister to hottie analyst Gabby Gaudet, had claimed The Great Provider last time out for $5K.  Like when first off the claim they are raised confidently.  The Great Provider had been claimed a year ago by Gaudet and he'd won for her before she lost him later to the claim box.  The 26% first off the claim win average all seemed to point to the fact that he'd be the favorite.  But instead he was the second choice at better than 2/1.  At Laurel it's significant here to know that their run-ups to the timing mechanisms are shorter so the times are always slower.  When The Great Provider zipped the opening half mile in :44.4 after a blistering opening quarter in :21.4 I knew he had to be cooked.  Those numbers would be equivalent to at least :21.0 and :43 and change here at Gulfstream.  But when the challengers moved in at the top of the stretch he just kept right on going!  WHOOOO HOOO!  And the big $6.80 payoff led to me cashing for $34 on my second win of the day!
Back to my seat in Section 101 and it was time for the Smooth Air Stakes.  Garter And Tie looked like a VERY legitimate favorite to me.  Many of the juveniles on today's card have run one big Beyer recently that probably led their connections to consider this stakes try.  But Garter and Tie had run THREE big numbers recently.  You could make a case that perhaps he was "declining" off the second place run last time out, but he comes from a stalking spot and had no chance chasing a loose on the lead winner.  I was encouraged when both Ron Nicoletti and Jason Blewitt commented on air that Garter and Tie had been one of the most impressive two-year-olds on the grounds.  He sat behind a dueling pair to the far turn then made his three-wide bid.  At the furlong pole it was still up in the air, but I thought he had the momentum.  The final margin was a lot closer than I thought it really was, as jockey Tyler Gafflione seemed confident through the final sixteenth to the wire.

With my triple investment I cashed for nearly $30 on my third winner in a row!  As Garter and Tie made his way into the winner's circle I was pulling up the 3rd from Aqueduct on my smart phone via xpressbet.com.....This was a maiden special for 2yo fillies and the connections of Shelly Ann had thought enough of her to DEBUT her in a stakes going a mile.  She drew post eleven of eleven and that probably nullified what small chance she might have had.  Today she was sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs - the ideal turn-back - and dropping in with maidens.  I thought she deserved to be much lower than the 8/1 program odds.  She left the gate at 5/2 and after dueling briefly out of the turn she ran away by nearly a pole for my FOURTH consecutive win.  Oh, this COULD be one of "those" days that I love so much about Gulfstream!  I ran a non-threatening sixth at Laurel at a nice 4/1 price and then I was at Tampa for one of just two races I liked on their card.  Longden had been in the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in Southern California before being moved across the country today.  While his form wasn't great, it wasn't bad out west and anything close to that should win this entry level allowance.  Away a big slowly he got into a tracking spot on the rail to the far turn, swung out three wide and opened up with ease as the 6/5 favorite, win number five!  Just as the Tampa race was official the horses were crossing onto the turf course at Gulfstream for the Pulpit Stakes, slated for one mile for two-year-olds.  Henley's Joy was my BET of the Day at Gulfstream in here!  As I remarked in my analysis, there are a lot of factors that are useful in handicapping, but perhaps the most significant is that "pace makes the race."  Here Henley's Joy looked to be set-up for the most ideal pressing/tracking trip over these and have PLENTY left for the stretch drive.  And he had the class edge having won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile, just missed in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland (2nd beaten a nose) and then a toss out over the yielding Churchill course in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  The drop to Florida-bred listed stakes rivals was oh-so-obvious.  The only negative I could even consider was the often times post-Breeders' Cup flop where horses who exit Breeders' Cup tries come back as heavy favorites and disappoint.  But he just looked way, WAY too good for these.  The race unfolded exactly like it looked on paper.  The top two were multiple lengths clear into the lane and then Henley's Joy opened up with another gear altogether to win going away, and under wraps.


I was amazed that he wasn't less than even money and gladly cashed my nearly $50 winning ticket!  Missed in a Laurel 2yo stake when 2nd at 2/1 and then was a distant sixth in the last of the juvenile events at Gulfstream when Bill Mott's Aunt Hattie didn't run at 7/2 odds.  I had handicapped the Aqueduct card and wondered about how worthy it was to pay the $3.75 for the card considering how often the weather cancels the program.  But it appeared they would be ok today.  Their feature was the six furlong Garland of Roses for older sprinters.  Vertical Oak had won this listed event last year and in a five horse field only one rival looked good enough to challenge her.  She was a Gr 2 winner and had been graded stakes placed several other times.  On paper it just seemed way too easy.  As I opened the race on my app I saw that the one filly I thought had an upset chance had scratched and Vertical Oak was 1/9 with ten minutes to post.  I considered upping the bet but then thought better of it - why risk more money for next to no return.  Somehow, despite the short field she floated up to a generous 3/5 at post time.  The other two betting choices dueled to the far turn and as they were daylight clear with three furlongs to run I wondered if the pace flow would compromise Vertical Oak.  In a well timed ride she caught them at the furlong pole and edged clear confidently....my seventh win overall today!

Caribbean Classic Day Highlights - Part 1

I missed on three picks before making my first bet of the day at the Fair Grounds.  When I was considering coming to the track on Saturday and knowing that the second half of the live card were all Latin American races - where it would be "go figure" on handicapping - I checked to see what was happening at other tracks.  And in New Orleans it was "Louisiana Champions Day" which is one of my favorite days to play the races from here.  I was able to get the past performances on Wednesday and handicapped the twelve race card.  Well, the first four were quarter horse events, so I blew by those.  Of the eight thoroughbred races I had five selections.  But on the ensuing days leading up to Saturday the national weather story was a huge storm blowing across the Midwest that looked like it would sitting on New Orleans on Saturday.  Sure enough, the conditions listed prior to the first race read, "Heavy rain, fog, OFF the turf."  And so I lost two of my five bets.  But the fifth race was the Louisiana Champions Lassie for two-year-old fillies.  I had played the races Opening Week here and on Opening Day I really liked the first time starter Midnight Fantasy.  She had dazzling works for her debut and was ultra-impressive as she ran to those works.  She was giving up experience and not only facing winners for the first time but stakes rivals.  But she was the bet.  I switched over to the Fair Grounds on my xpressbet account and they were headed into the gate with Midnight Fantasy not only the favorite but a huge 1/9 choice.  I actually tried to get an add-on bet but it was too late.  Right to the front she splashed to the lead and won easily.  This filly has some talent let me tell you!  My eighth winner!

I ran second with a big rally in a Laurel stakes - I'd gone against the two favorites and nearly got the price!  When I was writing up my analysis for the Gulfstream races for my web page and I got to the 7th race, the start of the Caribbean Classic events I was about to save and print but then it occured to me that since I was going to be there I'd at least make my comments based upon what the public handicappers had to say.  I commented on the 7th that I don't know how an American handicapper like me could make a serious bet based on the scant information provided in the past performances from these Latin American runners AND they were coming from all different track to race at a North American venue.  WAY too many questions for me.  But in the ninth, the Caribbean Speed Cup I found something.  I read what the "experts" said and then scanned through the past performances.  Wait a minute!  Big Bonus One leaped off the page.  First, unlike today's rivals he'd only been out twice and won both of them.  No matter what ability he does or doesn't have, to ship a horse internationally after just two starts AND into a multi-country stakes event says something about what the connections think they have.  But what jumped off the page - which I mention in my video (Part 2 below) was an angle I frequently use......Big Bonus One had worked here at Gulfstream and posted a huge best-of-109 bullet work - yes, one-hundred-and-nine.  ANY horse that posts THAT kind of workout is ready to run.  At 8/1 in the program I bet the minimum.  I thought that it was pretty unique and cool that all of these Caribbean races featured a Latin American track announcer.  And with the huge a raucous Hispanic crowd it just made it a really unique and "BIG DAY" kind of atmosphere.  Big Bonus One was bet down to 5/2 odds under jockey Paco Lopez who sat just off the speed to the top of the lane.  Split horses, dueled briefly and then edged clear to thunderous cheers, including my own as I had my FIRST Caribbean Classic Stakes win!
I passed the next live event and now we were down to the final two races on my selection sheet, that I was going to watch live that is.  My plan was to leave by 5 pm in order to be home by 6 pm so I could grab a quick bite to eat and leave for the Florida Panthers hockey game around 6:30 pm.  The seventh at the Fair Grounds had a 4:24 post time and the finale at Gulfstream was set for 4:50 pm.  In the 7th in New Orleans it was the Louisiana Champions Juvenile - the companion race to the one I'd won earlier with Midnight Fantasy.  My choice, Classy John was similar that filly.  On Beyer figures he should finish daylight lengths in front, as she had.  But unlike 'Fantasy who entered that stakes off a maiden win without ever having been six furlongs, Classy John HAD won at the distance, when he broke his maiden at Saratoga....and we all know only the best/most promising of two-year-olds race at the Spa in the summer!  Classy John also had a start against winners when he stretched to seven furlongs and was a best-of-the-rest second against open company.  The turn back to six panels and drop into La-bred company should make him much the best.  As I opened the race on xpressbet it was about three minutes to post time and HE was also 1/9.  I checked quickly the multi-race payoffs and he was an overwhelming favorite.  I had already planned to bet double on him (only a single investment had been the plan on Midnight Fantasy) and I upped the bet.  He too went right to the front under a snug hold, drew off by widening lengths without ever being asked!  WIN # TEN!

You could feel the electricity in the air at Gulfstream as the analysts handicapped the field for the featured Caribbean Classic.  This was the second of the Latin American races that I was betting.  While there wasn't anything on paper, like with Big Bonus One, the favorite looked really, REALLY legitimate.  Kulklkan had won the Mexican Triple Crown, and at first glance if would be a fair question to ask, but who did he beat?  In his last four starts he'd won by more than a combined forty lengths!  But again, who did he beat?  AND he was a perfect 13-for-13 in his career!  So for me, the fact that the program made him the prohibitive 3/5 favorite, he was unbeaten in thirteen starts, had never really seen anyone that could compete with him, and he'd worked locally he seemed a good bet.  But again, I asked myself, who had he beaten?  And then it occurred to me, I'll tell you who's he's beaten.....horses like he will face today!  It's not like he was coming to North America with these angles and would be facing quality US horses....he was facing the same caliber - good or bad, doesn't matter - of Latin American runners!  Doubled the bet.  The crowd roared as they burst from the gate.  Irad Ortiz had him mid-pack to the far turn and then he let him go.  While I couldn't understand anything the announcer was saying, the excitement as he said "KUKULKAN" several times told me that something special was happening.  As they turned for home the champion was six lengths clear.  He continued to widen the margin until it was more than ten past the wire!  My fifth win from nine selections at Gulfstream and eleventh overall.  WOW, what a day!


But, as I remarked on camera, as I left for home and the hockey game I still had some races on my selection sheet.  I originally had three picks from the Fair Grounds on the final page of my selection sheet, but one was now off the turf and I passed the race.  I really liked Monte Man in the Louisiana Sprint.  He was working on a seven race win streak and had won the prep for this handily.  What about the off-going?  He'd won over four different tracks, and that included fast, good, TURF, and sloppy going.  He was 6/5 when I watched the replay and looked in hand to the turn.  But when asked to go on with it he finished evenly, third.  Disappointing.  In the twelfth and finale, the Louisiana Champions Ladies Sprint I had Ours To Run.  I wrote that I was betting with my head because this filly looked best, but my heart wanted to bet on Minit To Stardom who'd been really impressive as a two-year-old this time last year.  But after two sensational wins she'd run poorly in the August 4th Grade 1 Test Stakes.  I would be willing to forgive that effort, but what bothered me was that her trainer Al Stall is off to an 0-for-29 start to the meet - ouch.  Unlike the two juvenile winners, Ours To Run sat off the pace to the far turn, swept up and ran away as much, MUCH the best.  Only paid $3.20 and I only had the minimum, but hey - it's another winner on the day!

The other two selections came from Los Alamitos Race Course which now runs a thoroughbred meeting because Hollywood Park closed a few years ago.  I had looked at the entire card, but honestly the only two races I liked were the two co-features, both Grade 1 events.  And the story in each race was the same.....which Bob Baffert trainee to put the money on because he had two in each race and if only one were in either race they'd go off as heavy favorites.  In the fifth, the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity the choice was either Improbable or Mucho Gusto, and from what I read, Baffert was high on both of these colts.  But I'd also read several times that Improbable just might be the best two-year-old in the overloaded Baffert shedrow.  And that is saying alot since one of his "other" two-year-olds is unbeaten, multiple Grade 1 winner Game Winner.  And HE is most assuredly going to win the Eclipse Award for top juvenile after winning the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  I'd seen Improbable on the undercard that day when he waltzed with the Street Sense Stakes.  And based on what I'd read, and more importantly my visual impression he was the bet - in fact I made him a prime time bet!  After breaking from the rail he was wide into the first turn; then he raced at least five wide down the backstretch and was wide through the far turn.  How many lengths is this costing him I wondered as I watched.  Meanwhile Mucho Gusto was skimming the rail saving all the ground on the lead.  Off the turn Improbable drew even to Mucho Gusto and the two kicked away for a sixteenth of a mile.  Then Improbable demonstrated why he is getting so much hype.  Without truly being asked he left his stablemate far, far behind - and he was daylight clear of the field.  VERY impressive!

Like Ours To Run I didn't make much, even with a prime-time play, but it was my 13th winner of the day.  Finally, in the companion race, the Grade 1 Starlet Bob Baffert had Mother Mother who looked very similar to Improbable.  After a debut win she'd run second in the Gr 1 Del Mar Debutante then won the Rags To Riches at Churchill Downs.  But she'd have to face Chasing Yesterday.  She is a half-sister to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and she won her debut with ease.  But as the favorite in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga she didn't fire.  But since returning to So Cal she'd won back-to-back stakes....but against very small fields.  Today she got a nearly identical trip as Improbable, and her stablemate Mother Mother was on the lead into the lane.  But Chasing Yesterday was a determined 5-wide challenger.  Inside the final 100 yards it was my top choice and a 30/1 longshot.  Heads and heads down, surging.....PHOTO FINISH!  But I was pretty certain that announcer Bobby Newman had it right in calling Chasing Yesterday the winner - and she was!

Caribbean Classic Day Highlights - Part 2

For the day a remarkable 14 wins from 25 selections - a whopping 56% and a solid profit!  What a great send-off to our European Christmas Markets Cruise with Viking Cruise lines this week.  I'll be back with the action at Gulfstream two weeks from today!

Some photos which capture some of the festive atmosphere enjoyed Saturday!













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