December 1st - Claiming Crown Day
The Championship Meet Opens!
Today finally arrived, Opening Day and the beginning of the Gulfstream Championship Meeting! After my "historic" winter last year where I eclipsed all of my previous winter records I'd spent the summer and fall largely winning my "fair share" at my typical 35% or more rate, but always finding it difficult to produce a winning day. The one BIG exception came on Breeders' Cup weekends, and honestly if I could have picked a single weekend that to win it would have been that one. I was so very happy when my wife Kim announced on Wednesday that she'd be joining me for the day - we used to make Opening Day an annual tradition because it nearly always fell right around our anniversary the first week in January. But since going to a year-round schedule and adopting the Gulfstream Park West meet in October/November she has not joined me very often. I handicapped the races not only at Gulfstream, but looked for solid plays at Tampa, the Fair Grounds, Parx, and Aqueduct as well. We left the house around 10:30 and arrived a little after eleven a.m. Kim wanted to do a little shopping so I went to "my section" and where I had my photo taken to commemorate the day and then a few minutes before post time Kim arrived and we had our picture taken.
In the opener I thought it was only appropriate that (a) it was a very difficult race to analyze and (b) that I landed on a Todd Pletcher runner who was making the switch from turf to dirt. Avocado had debuted on the dirt at GPW and showed little, but it just looked to me, especially with two-time leading rider Luis Saez taking over, that he would run big today. He was sent off at a generous 9/2 and as the field turned for home Saez had him in front! But he weakened late (which, as you'll see, became the "theme" for the day) and finished third. In the second I again thought it was a very open field for the first of NINE Claiming Crown Stakes, this one the "Rapid Transit." I thought Jorge Navarro was poised to win several races today (and he did win three, but two without me!) and so I thought Sal the Turtle had a good shot. He tracked the leaders to the far turn, loomed ominously three wide as they spun for home and faded. Sigh. The third race was the last non-stakes race, and like the opener it was a two-year-old Maiden Special on the turf. Was there a Todd Pletcher runner, oh yes my friend, Bourbon in May. He had debuted at Keeneland this fall - where I'd argue the fields were maybe even a little stronger than December 2yo maiden races here. He was the luke-warm favorite that day and had finished a good second. Pletcher wins with 30% of his second time maiden runners and the crowd wasn't fooled like the were with his first starter Avocado. I was just a touch concerned when he was mid-pack to the far turn, but then he accelerated four wide and picked off runners one-by-one until he was clear into the stretch then won by daylight! My first winner on the day, my first winner on the season, my first Todd Pletcher winner of the meet!
I'd tripled the bet so suddenly I was nearly even and I was off to what I thought was a good start. AND unlike most times when she joins me at the races, Kim had made several bets and she too had put money on Broubon In May so we BOTH won!
The fourth race was yet another wide-open event, the Claiming Crown Express and I went with Fast Pass who was 50/1 in the DRF program and left the gate at 14/1. As they raced on the far turn and I had my camera ready to film he was way back so I didn't even turn it on. But as they hit the 16th pole he was absolutely FLYING. I briefly thought I KNEW I should have turned on the camera to catch this big-priced winner. But he didn't win, but he was a fast-closing third. Next up on my sheet was a very interesting selection. On Opening Day last year my BET of the Day was in the Claiming Crown Canterbury, a five furlong turf sprint and I won with Pay Any Price who currently has won 13 of 19 career turf sprints, including 8-of-his-last-10 at Gulfstream, where he holds the course record at the distance. I figured he'd be one of my big bets today but instead of showing up here he was the morning line favorite in the TAMPA Turf Dash, the next race on my sheet. He was in post seven of eight and he was indeed one of my top plays of the day. As the final horse was approaching the gate, Pay Any Price tossed the rider and broke through the gate. For several minutes as they chased him down the backstretch his odds crept higher and higher. I thought, either I'm going to get a much better price or I'm throwing my money away. And I was surprised that he wasn't scratched - then they announced he was withdrawn and frankly I was satisfied with that. I may well have had the winner had it been a typical day and I was in the simulcast center downstairs because the one challenger to him that I thought had a realistic chance had been 9/5 when Pay Any Price was IN the field and now he became the heavy 4/5 favorite. But I was watching on my phone, in our seats with Kim and I wasn't going to go dashing down to change the bet. And yes, he did win. In New York there were four graded stakes today and I had picks in all of them. I'd missed with the 6/5 favorite in the Grade 2 Demoiselle for 2yo fillies, but I thought I had a really good shot in the Grade 3 Go For Wand.
At the Breeders' Cup a month ago I had three strong bets on BC Saturday. The first was in the Grade 1 Filly & Mare Sprint where I liked Marley's Freedom in that 7 furlong dash. She was the favorite and was a little too far back, then came flying to miss by half a length. She is based in So Cal and trained by Bob Baffert. I read prior to handicapping for today that Baffert was entering her in today's Grade 3 Go For Wand at a one-turn mile because they believed she could get a route distance and if so they'd campaign her in the bigger two-turn races in 2019. Being a one-turn mile made it easier to like her in here. But then I noticed that after the Breeders' Cup Baffert had apparently either not thought of running here, or decided she'd be happier "home" and had shipped all the way from Louisville to Santa Anita to train for the race. So to me, to ship back to California, then return to New York was a sign that they were really serious. And with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith leaving sunny So Cal to rider in wintry New York, I knew they were serious. Smith made an early bid for the lead entering the far turn and got to the front, but a double-digit longshot wold not go away and they dueled the length of the stretch before Marley's Freedom inched clear :) WHOOO HOOOO.
This leads to ANOTHER interesting tale.....just after the Go For Wand was the 5th at Gulfstream where I liked Blue Bahia, who'd won the Distaff Dash last year, and another stakes for me in another turf sprint later in the spring. She was the 4/5 favorite, led into the lane and weakened to finish third (there's that "weakened" thing again!). Kim had also bet on Blue Bahia and after that race finished she went to hunt for Pokemon characters. I watched the NY race and then since she wasn't sitting with me I decided to go around to the paddock area and upstairs to the walkway to shoot a video recap of the bet. As I walked through the breezeway area I saw the "Selfie Cam" guy and I thought "I should call Kim and try to get her here" and then I knew (a) she wouldn't care truly one way or the other and (b) who knows how long they'd be here. So I approached them and they asked if I wanted a photo. Yes, and I have the winning ticket I said! The guy noted my Claiming Crown pin in my lapel and commented about it. So the sequence of events fell into place and I got a great photo of me with a winning ticket on Opening Day......
The sixth at Gulfstream was the Claiming Crown Iron Horse and I liked Guns of Steel for Jorge Navarro. Sent off as the tepid 2/1 favorite he was multiple lengths in front, loose on the lead as they hit the far turn with the first finish line making his win chances appear all the more likely. But as they turned for home, yes, he weakened and faded to fifth. WOW. The seventh was the Claiming Crown Tiara and I went prime time on Starship Jubilee - who I'd bet LAST year and she weakened to third. But I thought she looked even better today. I thought the second choice Valedictorian would take the lead, 'Starship (from post 12) would press her, take over on the turn, and hold off Peru - who was a deep closer and HAD passed her for second last year. Instead Starship Jubilee went to the front, dueled with Valedictorian through the turn - yes, led into the stretch, and then Peru blew by to win as I weakened yet again.
As I'd mentioned earlier I had handicapped the races at Parx in Philadelphia. I really liked Call Paul in their feature, the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes, a seven furlong event for two-year-olds. He'd won his first debut at 2/5 at Delaware and then won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special as the favorite. But his two races since were route races and he'd faded in both of those graded events. So, moving back to a sprint, dropping from graded stakes - IN NEW YORK - to a state-bred Parx event all pointed him out big time. Didn't figure to make any money, but he would be a winner I was fairly certain. Pressed to dueling leaders to the turn, opened up and ran away as a favorite should.
My "Bet of the Day" at Gulfstream was in the Canterbury, like last year, but this year it was Dowse's Beach. I thought he looked so good that his entry here may have been the reason Pay Any Price went to Tampa. AND he was trained by Jason Servis, the leading turf sprint trainer in the country (at better than 34%) and he had Paco Lopez up, a 40% winning combination from 99 mounts over the last two years. As they hit the far turn I thought to myself, "FINALLY, I have the runner who blows by the speed!" as 'Beach launched his bid between horses as the 4/5 favorite turning for home. But no, not this time - the 6/1 front runner never stopped and I weakened, yes - again - to finish fifth. In the 10th it was a VERY unusual angle that led me to Driven By Thunder. Todd Pletcher has won the training title here for SIXTEEN consecutive winters. But it's almost all done with maidens, allowance, and stakes runners. He is loaded with talented horses. While he has good win numbers with claimers he has very, VERY few of those. And he next to NEVER actually claims a horse, his owners buy them for big bucks. But Driven For Thunder had been re-claimed - yes, not claimed, but RE-CLAIMED by Pletcher for top NY owner Michael Repole. And leading rider Luis Saez was riding. Too many angles to dismiss, especially at a price (20/1 in the DRF program!). As they turned for home, yes - you guessed it - he was in front at a huge 8/1 price and I thought, with my triple investment I'm about to have a winning day in one fell swoop.....what a story when a Pletcher runner pays nearly $20 to win and I've got it 7 1/2 times! But then - yes, again - he weakened and finished a tiring sixth. So to sum up the eight of the first nine bets of the day......
The eleventh was the featured Claiming Crown Jewel and it presented a real dilemma. Trainer Jorge Navarro had won two races already and both had paid big prices. In here he had Aztec Sense, who had won SEVEN races in a row and Flowers For Lisa who wired the field last year at nearly 7/1 in this event. Both appeared to run well on the front but I thought Aztec Sense was probably a little more talented - and the seven wins in a row couldn't be argued with - AND he'd shown the ability to stalk the leaders while 'Lisa was a "need to lead" runner. Kim and I stood at the rail as they raced through the stretch. Flowers For Lisa led to the turn and weakened and a 10/1 runner slipped through on the rail to challenge as Aztec Sense swung four-wide to make his move. From our angle it was one head up and one head down and they looked on even terms. If I had to guess I would have given it to the inside horse, the 10/1 runner, but I know from many years of watching from here that the angle is bad. And so I was listening to the announcer's call and he called Aztec Sense the winner, not even a "photo finish." Kim disappointingly looked at me and said, "Second," and I replied, "No, I'm pretty sure he won." The slow motion replay came up and clearly he was ahead on the wire!
Always good to leave on a winning note, just makes you want to come back! I had one last bet, in Del Mar's featured Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. I liked Chad Brown's Raging Bull. I pulled up the live feed on my Xpressbet app on my phone as we were eating dinner. Just as he launched his bid the screen froze briefly; fast forwarded to mid-stretch with a blurred & pixalated picture; frozen again.....what, what happened? After a few seconds the live feed returned to normal and showed Raging Bull jogging back as the official winner! WHOOO HOOO!
As I mentioned on the main web page intro - it was a wonderful day of racing. I love coming to Gulfstream in the winter, truly I do regardless of the results. The weather was great; the racing was excellent; I was with my sweetie; and while I wish I'd won more races, I did win a handful! I'll look forward to next week's return to the track and the next four months with enthusiasm!
Here are some "Selfie-Cam" shots of racing fans from the big day's card......
Sunday December 2
I thought, especially since I'd only had two winners on Saturday, that I'd score more frequently today. AND I was confident because I had three Todd Pletcher runners. No one was more surprised than I was that NONE of the three won, all failing at short prices. Sigh. But I did cash with my last play of the day when Jorge Navarro's Dash of Dazzle won a cheap $6.25K claiming sprint. First off the claim runners for Navarro win at a big 42% and he does this ALL the time at both Gulfstream and Monmouth where he'll not only claim them, but drop them significantly in price first time out. The $8.80 payoff helped salvage some of the day's bets :)
I'd tripled the bet so suddenly I was nearly even and I was off to what I thought was a good start. AND unlike most times when she joins me at the races, Kim had made several bets and she too had put money on Broubon In May so we BOTH won!
At the Breeders' Cup a month ago I had three strong bets on BC Saturday. The first was in the Grade 1 Filly & Mare Sprint where I liked Marley's Freedom in that 7 furlong dash. She was the favorite and was a little too far back, then came flying to miss by half a length. She is based in So Cal and trained by Bob Baffert. I read prior to handicapping for today that Baffert was entering her in today's Grade 3 Go For Wand at a one-turn mile because they believed she could get a route distance and if so they'd campaign her in the bigger two-turn races in 2019. Being a one-turn mile made it easier to like her in here. But then I noticed that after the Breeders' Cup Baffert had apparently either not thought of running here, or decided she'd be happier "home" and had shipped all the way from Louisville to Santa Anita to train for the race. So to me, to ship back to California, then return to New York was a sign that they were really serious. And with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith leaving sunny So Cal to rider in wintry New York, I knew they were serious. Smith made an early bid for the lead entering the far turn and got to the front, but a double-digit longshot wold not go away and they dueled the length of the stretch before Marley's Freedom inched clear :) WHOOO HOOOO.
The sixth at Gulfstream was the Claiming Crown Iron Horse and I liked Guns of Steel for Jorge Navarro. Sent off as the tepid 2/1 favorite he was multiple lengths in front, loose on the lead as they hit the far turn with the first finish line making his win chances appear all the more likely. But as they turned for home, yes, he weakened and faded to fifth. WOW. The seventh was the Claiming Crown Tiara and I went prime time on Starship Jubilee - who I'd bet LAST year and she weakened to third. But I thought she looked even better today. I thought the second choice Valedictorian would take the lead, 'Starship (from post 12) would press her, take over on the turn, and hold off Peru - who was a deep closer and HAD passed her for second last year. Instead Starship Jubilee went to the front, dueled with Valedictorian through the turn - yes, led into the stretch, and then Peru blew by to win as I weakened yet again.
As I'd mentioned earlier I had handicapped the races at Parx in Philadelphia. I really liked Call Paul in their feature, the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes, a seven furlong event for two-year-olds. He'd won his first debut at 2/5 at Delaware and then won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special as the favorite. But his two races since were route races and he'd faded in both of those graded events. So, moving back to a sprint, dropping from graded stakes - IN NEW YORK - to a state-bred Parx event all pointed him out big time. Didn't figure to make any money, but he would be a winner I was fairly certain. Pressed to dueling leaders to the turn, opened up and ran away as a favorite should.
My "Bet of the Day" at Gulfstream was in the Canterbury, like last year, but this year it was Dowse's Beach. I thought he looked so good that his entry here may have been the reason Pay Any Price went to Tampa. AND he was trained by Jason Servis, the leading turf sprint trainer in the country (at better than 34%) and he had Paco Lopez up, a 40% winning combination from 99 mounts over the last two years. As they hit the far turn I thought to myself, "FINALLY, I have the runner who blows by the speed!" as 'Beach launched his bid between horses as the 4/5 favorite turning for home. But no, not this time - the 6/1 front runner never stopped and I weakened, yes - again - to finish fifth. In the 10th it was a VERY unusual angle that led me to Driven By Thunder. Todd Pletcher has won the training title here for SIXTEEN consecutive winters. But it's almost all done with maidens, allowance, and stakes runners. He is loaded with talented horses. While he has good win numbers with claimers he has very, VERY few of those. And he next to NEVER actually claims a horse, his owners buy them for big bucks. But Driven For Thunder had been re-claimed - yes, not claimed, but RE-CLAIMED by Pletcher for top NY owner Michael Repole. And leading rider Luis Saez was riding. Too many angles to dismiss, especially at a price (20/1 in the DRF program!). As they turned for home, yes - you guessed it - he was in front at a huge 8/1 price and I thought, with my triple investment I'm about to have a winning day in one fell swoop.....what a story when a Pletcher runner pays nearly $20 to win and I've got it 7 1/2 times! But then - yes, again - he weakened and finished a tiring sixth. So to sum up the eight of the first nine bets of the day......
The eleventh was the featured Claiming Crown Jewel and it presented a real dilemma. Trainer Jorge Navarro had won two races already and both had paid big prices. In here he had Aztec Sense, who had won SEVEN races in a row and Flowers For Lisa who wired the field last year at nearly 7/1 in this event. Both appeared to run well on the front but I thought Aztec Sense was probably a little more talented - and the seven wins in a row couldn't be argued with - AND he'd shown the ability to stalk the leaders while 'Lisa was a "need to lead" runner. Kim and I stood at the rail as they raced through the stretch. Flowers For Lisa led to the turn and weakened and a 10/1 runner slipped through on the rail to challenge as Aztec Sense swung four-wide to make his move. From our angle it was one head up and one head down and they looked on even terms. If I had to guess I would have given it to the inside horse, the 10/1 runner, but I know from many years of watching from here that the angle is bad. And so I was listening to the announcer's call and he called Aztec Sense the winner, not even a "photo finish." Kim disappointingly looked at me and said, "Second," and I replied, "No, I'm pretty sure he won." The slow motion replay came up and clearly he was ahead on the wire!
Always good to leave on a winning note, just makes you want to come back! I had one last bet, in Del Mar's featured Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. I liked Chad Brown's Raging Bull. I pulled up the live feed on my Xpressbet app on my phone as we were eating dinner. Just as he launched his bid the screen froze briefly; fast forwarded to mid-stretch with a blurred & pixalated picture; frozen again.....what, what happened? After a few seconds the live feed returned to normal and showed Raging Bull jogging back as the official winner! WHOOO HOOO!
Opening Day Highlights
Here are some "Selfie-Cam" shots of racing fans from the big day's card......
Sunday December 2
I thought, especially since I'd only had two winners on Saturday, that I'd score more frequently today. AND I was confident because I had three Todd Pletcher runners. No one was more surprised than I was that NONE of the three won, all failing at short prices. Sigh. But I did cash with my last play of the day when Jorge Navarro's Dash of Dazzle won a cheap $6.25K claiming sprint. First off the claim runners for Navarro win at a big 42% and he does this ALL the time at both Gulfstream and Monmouth where he'll not only claim them, but drop them significantly in price first time out. The $8.80 payoff helped salvage some of the day's bets :)
No comments:
Post a Comment