Tropical Derby Week

December 26 - 30:  Tropical Derby Week

It was "Longshot Week" at Gulfstream where the favorites REALLY struggled to get home in front, and since most of my selections tend to be one of the top three choices, it meant I had several misses to "go figure" kind of horses.

Wednesday December 26:  Opening Day at Santa Anita

I was excited to not only have picks at Gulfstream but to play the stakes-laden card at Santa Anita.  At Gulfstream it was a pretty mediocre card and I only had four selections.  I had two seconds, a third, and a fourth....that one coming with a prohibitive 1/5 favorite.  Typical for the day in Hallandale as the parade of longshots were virtually non-stop.

At Santa Anita I felt pretty good about at least three of my selections.  But I was 2nd in the first of the stakes at even money, then a Bob Baffert 2yo, Scalper went off as a short-priced 6/5 favorite and missed the break....weakened to be sixth.  The Grade 1 La Brea featured unbeaten filly Dream Tree, also from the Bob Baffert barn.  She was 3/5 and showed little, ninth if you can believe it.  I was up in the air on several contenders in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile but DRF analyst Brad Free - the only public handicapper left that can change my opinion made River Boyne his BEST BET.  That sealed it and I tripled the bet.  Came flying late to be up in time!

In the Grade 1 Malibu for 3yo I knew it would be one of the Bob Baffert 3yo, either likely heavy favorite McKinzie or Ax Man.  Ax Man had shown great potential and figured to be a nice price.  Can't tell you how many times I've seen Baffert have two, especially in stakes, and the big price upsets the other which is typically the favorite.  Not today as Ax Man faded to 11th while McKinzie rolled up super impressive.

Thursday December 27

Another ho-hum card at Gulfstream and I had just five picks.  But the ones I had I mostly really liked.  Only one came home to win while I had not one, not two, but three second place finishes.  The one I did have was in the second a claiming event for turf sprinters.  Jorge Navarro's Dance Proudly looked best on paper and he was easily best.

While it wasn't quite as big a "longshot day" still there were four BIG price winners that paid whopping prices:  $101.20 in the 4th (yes, for a $2 bet), $29.40 in the 5th, $21.20 in the 6th - keying a big Pick-3 payout of $10,600 for a mere $0.50 bet!  And the ninth had a $62.40 winner.

Friday December 28
I spent a good part of the day handicapping and again had only four selections that I played on the card - two of them for the minimum.  I was a non-threatening fifth with the first bet of the day then was 2nd at 3/5 in the fifth.  4th at 2/1 in the sixth - can a fella buy a winner?  Then in the 8th, my last live bet of the day I planned to double the bet on Chad Brown's Icespire.  But she was drawing a lot of money and I just had "that feeling."  Doubled my own bet to make it prime time and she rolled home to key a $50 payoff and seal a winning day despite going just 1-for-4!

Three more big-priced winners came home.  $23 for the opener and $24 in the 2nd to key a nearly $200 daily double; and in the finale the winner paid $51.20.

Saturday December 29:  Tropical Park Derby Day
I had a dilemma.  Actually I had a double-dilemma.  First, I had to make my return to Jenny Craig to get weight back on track this week and I could only get in this morning at 10:20.  IF I hurried home I could make it to the races in time for the opener, but it would be close.  And even bigger was the fact that today was a BIG college football bowl game day.  My Florida Gators were on at noon and then at 4 pm was the first of the two national semi-final games.  My plan was to go and stay for the featured Derby and then come home to watch the second half of that first semi-final, skip the hockey game and watch the second semi-final on TV.  I would tape the Gator game and if they won I'd watch it tomorrow.  But when I got to Jenny Craig I was 20 minutes late even getting in and I knew I'd be lucky if I rushed to get to Gulfstream for the third.  Took it as a sign and changed gears.....played all the races at home while watching college football.  I was glad I got to see my Gators steamroll Michigan 41-15 and ensure a top-5 position in the final poll I think.  From a racing standpoint I had a good "numbers" day as I won my typical 35% and again my wins equaled my 2nd and 3rd place finishes combined (8 - 8) so that I was 1-2-3 in sixteen of twenty-three picks.  But the story of the day was that my winners, with two notable exceptions were prohibitive favorites AND both of my best bets didn't win.  Right off the bat I was 2nd at 3/1 then 4th at 3/1 and then in the Aqueduct opener Midnight Entree was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite....second.  Laurel had six stakes today and in the first of these my choice, Win Win Win was the even money favorite - 2nd, again.  Sigh......  Finally got on the board when Mystery Witness won a Maiden Claiming sprint at Gulfstream in their third for trainer Jorge Navarro.

But the 1-2 payoff only got me a little more than $20 despite a triple investment.  Still, I'm finally on the board.  The Fair Grounds also had several stakes today but the weather there was miserable so I didn't have any action in their schedule turf events until late in the card when I found two runners I thought could run on the sloppy main track.  The first stakes event in New Orleans was the Louisiana Futurity for two-year-old colts and Classy John was 3/5 in the program.  Looked every bit the part as all three of his career Beyers would beat all the figures earned by the rest of the field.  He was 1/9 at post time and ran away as much the best.  Didn't make any money, but padded the win stats with a second consecutive victory.

I - and hottie analyst Acacia Courtney - was surprised that track record holder Pay Any Price was NOT the favorite in the Janus Stakes going five furlongs on the turf in Gulfstream's fourth.  But the crowd had it right as he was dueled into a fading third finish.  Back-to-back third place finishes, first at Laurel and then at Gulfstream preceded a win at Aqueduct when Alisio who was even money in the program and much the best as the 2/5 off-time chalk.

I had two price plays at 5/1 and 6/1 at Laurel and Gulfstream and they ran to their odds (6th and 4th).  The East View Stakes for two-year-olds at Aqueduct was next on my sheet.  I thought it was pretty wide open but one of my favorite angles in handicapping is a bullet work; a fast bullet work is even better and that was the case when Espresso Shot posted a :59.4 five furlong move for this event.  He sat off the pace to the far turn then swept by to win.

The $6.80 payoff, with my double investment led to a payoff of nearly $35.  Fourth place finishes with back-to-back even money favorites followed.  The second of which was my BEST BET at Gulfstream, a Todd Pletcher first time starter who has a $300K sales grad with John Velazquez on board.  A poor break and then a burst to get to third at the demanding distance of seven furlongs was too much to overcome.  I thought I had the winner in Gulfstream's Tropical Park Oaks when Andina Del Sur sat the perfect trip behind a 10/1 front runner, but she was just a nose shy on the wire.  At Aqueduct I had a pick in their next stakes, the Alex M. Robb going nine furlongs on the main track.  I thought Mr. Buff had a good chance to wire the field.  He had pressure, got loose and then dug in through the final 100 yards to hang on.

Could have made more money with the fair $7.40 payoff, but I wasn't that confident and so I only had the minimum invested.  Next was the Politely from Laurel and Crabcakes was 9-for-15 overall and a superb 7-for-9 at Laurel....at today's three-quarters of a mile she was 6-for-9.  Sent off at 3/5 she was much the best on paper.  But that's why they run the races because she just didn't fire finishing eight.  Huge disappointment as my BET of the Day.  In Gulfstream's 9th Holy Helena was the 7/5 favorite and she too could not quite get to the winner on the wire, second.  With the weather at the Fair Grounds iffy at best the Woodchopper scheduled for the turf was a "no play" for me unless it was run on the main track.  There I thought Mark Casse's Noble Commander could run back to his 3yo promise and upset the field.  He was 12/1 as they went into the gate and he coasted wire to wire on the front end.  I thought I was cashing for more than $60 and then the final odds flashed up at 7/1.  Not complaining about the $16.80 payoff, but......

Missed in the finale of the day, another off-the-turf in New Orleans where my pick, the 7/5 chalk was fourth.  It was ironic on the day that I was going to play just the stakes-laden Laurel and Gulfstream cards, but decided late in the week that I might as well play Aqueduct and the Fair Grounds.  At Gulfstream I was 2-for-10.  I was 0-for at Laurel.  But at Aqueduct I was 3-for-4 and at the Fair Grounds, even with the sloppy track I went 3-for-4 as well!  So all told I was 8-for-23 (35%) but couldn't make any money.

Sunday December 30
Only four picks at Gulfstream and I had one second.  Ironically in that race it was the only short-priced favorite of the day to win, and one of the few for the week.  I had a Todd Pletcher horse at a nice 9/2 price and couldn't get the photo in my favor.

Next week is a special 6-day racing schedule with a special New Year's Day card on Tuesday.

Christmas Weekend Racing

December 22 - 23

We returned from our magical European river cruises with Viking Cruises, having sailed down the Danube River from Passau, Germany to Budapest, Hungary with just THE most ideal holiday weather.  It was just an amazing adventure.  Got home Wednesday evening and left Friday morning for Orlando to spend the pre-Christmas weekend with our grandson and his parents.  But before we left I handicapped the Gulfstream cards for the weekend.  On Saturday I had seven selections from the twelve race card.  The opener was a maiden claimer for 2yo and while there were several MSW droppers, Quizzical Cajun had earned a far superior number facing $50K runners last time out.  Sent off as the 3/2 favorite he dueled through the far turn and into the lane before weakening to be third.  In the second race I liked Dull Knife in an entry level allowance on the grass for juveniles.  In all the years I've handicapped I don't think I've EVER seen top trainer Todd Pletcher take over a Euro import and run them on the grass like this.  He went off as the second choice at 3/1, leaving the gate a step slow and then racing evenly to finish fourth.  The third was a Maiden Special sprint for two-year-old fillies and the DRF early line made a filly with experience the even money choice, but jockey Luca Panici was only 1-for-31 since the Championship Meet opened.  I instead liked Todd Pletcher's filly, Orra Moor who was a daughter of champion Orb and had been well prepped for her debut.  Like my pick in the opener she was off a beat slow, but when jockey John Velazquez urged her to pick up the pace on the turn she responded and swung three-wide on the move.  She collared the DRF favorite and drew clear as handily the best.  The crowd wasn't fooled, as I wasn't, sending off Orra Moor as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite and the DRF choice as the third choice at 9/2.  

I had doubled the bet so I cashed for $15 with my first winner of the weekend.  After passing the fourth I had a choice in the fifth, a cheap $6.25K two-turn event with a first finish at a mile and a sixteenth.  Trainer Jorge Navarro does wonders first off the claim and he'd taken Brown's Gap recently.  That in and of itself would be a good angle, but this 7yo had multiple wins at GP and at this distance.  He looked to be a popular winner on paper.  He was third into the far turn and appeared to be working hard, but he was gradually moving on the leaders.  He reached them turning for home and in the short stretch he gradually eased clear to provide my second win of the day.

I passed on the sixth and sought my third in a row in an entry level allowance on the turf for older.  I don't usually like to bet these kind of races because they are such a mixed bag.  But I saw an opportunity to maybe get a bit of a price with Another who was from the Bill Mott barn.  In three of his last four starts he'd earned numbers that would beat this field, and this was just the second try for Hall of Fame conditioner Mott.  The move to top rider Luis Saez sealed the deal.  The crown preferred a Jason Servis runner and allowed Another to leave the gate at better than 3/1.  The two of them were in the rear third of the field heading into the far turn when Saez gave the "GO" cue and Another swept by the field and drew off with authority.  The nice $8.20 payoff meant I'd cash for over forty dollars on my third consecutive victory!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Another pass in the eighth led me to the "Best" of the day.  If you follow my adventures at the races you know that one of my common rants is the DRF linemaker.  When I get the past performances more than a day in advance I have to use the "graded entries" from the DRF to get odds.  To be fair, there are times when the odds are similar to those in the program.  But consider this race.....Bricks and Mortar was entered in this conditioned allowance on the turf by arguably the best turf trainer in North America, Chad Brown; in six turf starts 'Bricks has earned four wins and the two losses were BOTH by less than a length; and both of those losses were at the Gr 3 level behind winners who subsequently won Grade 1 races.  Now I'll grant you Bricks and Mortar was coming off a long layoff, but that's a strong win angle for Brown.  Knowing all this, can you even imagine any reason to list him at 50/1 as the DRF did?  And he was my "BEST" of the day.  Jockey Irad Ortiz rode him patiently to the far turn, accelerated to pass horses and reach the leaders inside the furlong marker.  In spite of the way the top two APPEARED to be dueling, Ortiz was hand-riding 'Bricks very confidently.  As they sprinted through the final 100 yards my pick edged clear was was a solid winner. 

With my triple investment I collected more than $40 again!  The final pick on the Saturday card came in the featured Grade 3 Mr. Prospector.  On paper I thought Todd Pletcher's Coal Front looked much the best.  But, I'd seen in some recent analysis online that many thought him vulnerable based on his last when coming off a long layoff and seemingly not firing. Add in that Pletcher rarely uses a race as a "prep" race, but if you viewed that last as such, he looked good, even breaking from post eleven.   I thought this even more so the case since that last try was in New York and Pletcher thrives here in South Florida.  So, if you assume he was pointing for today, Coal Front would truly be much the best when the real running started.  Jockey John Velazquez had him three and four wide through the turn as he pressed the leaders.  He was five wide swinging for home and he brushed with Gulfstream analyst Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day, Kroy (who I did NOT like) at the furlong marker and then he found another gear and ran away.  FIVE IN A ROW!

The $5.20 payoff was generous in my opinion and I closed out the day by collecting more than $25 on the last winner of the day.

On Sunday I had five picks but four of them were not strong plays.  After passing the first two races I found my BEST of the Weekend in an entry level allowance for two-year-olds.  One advantage I have since I began playing the races more frequently is you just learn to "know" some things.  And one angle that pops up all the time this time of year is a Todd Pletcher two-year-old who flashed talent in the summer, then was put away for many months, and now returns here in So Fla.  Such was the case for Federal Reserve.  He had debuted last spring at Keeneland going "about seven furlongs" which was similar to today's one-turn mile.  He'd won, which had to please his connections who'd laid out $450K at the Keeneland Sales for him!  Today he returned for Pletcher-Velazquez and had a bullet work for this.  Clever rider Paco Lopez was on the second choice at 5/2 and that one carved out moderate fractions through the far turn.  Velazquez looked to have a lot of work to do as Lopez floated the leader out made Federal Reserve rally even wider into the lane.  Inside the sixteenth pole Federal Reserve was still second, but then his talent shown through and he wore down the long-time leader in the shadow of the wire!

My prime time selection meant I'd collect almost $30 to start off Sunday's action!  Passed the fourth, then missed in the fifth and sixth.  Much like Bricks and Mortar on Saturday there was no way that a Todd Pletcher two-year-old like Overdeliver would go off at anything like the 15/1 price offered in the DRF early line.  The crowd made him a strong even-money favorite and he responded with an authoritative win - we'll see him next in stakes action I'd think!

Missed in the last of my picks but still, went a strong 2-for-5, 40% for those without a calculator, on the day.  And for the first two days back from the big adventure I went 7-for-12.  Who can argue with those kind of results and a profit of over $70!

Caribbean Classic Week

December 5th - 9th

The first full week of racing at the Championship Meet - nothing like winter thoroughbred racing in Hallandale Beach1

Wednesday December 5th

As I handicapped the Wednesday card it reminded me of a Calder-esque kind of card without any "real Gulfstream" kind of races or horses.  As a result over the ten race card I had only three selections and only one where I went more than the minimum.  That came in the opener, a maiden claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf course.  False Info was from the barn of Todd Pletcher, which made picking him all the easier.  He'd debuted on the dirt at Gulfstream Park West in a Maiden Special sprint.  He'd had trouble when trying to rally which added to the appeal.  Until last winter nearly always a Pletcher runner who ran at GPW was a play-against for me; any Pletcher runner on the turf and especially going dirt-to-turf was also a play against.  But I had the best winter I've ever had last year largely because early on I saw all of those winning for the top trainer.  With two-time riding champ Luis Saez on False Info, I doubled the bet.  Saez saved ground to the far turn, moved three-wide to challenge the leaders and drew even in the stretch.  Edged clear and drew off late at $4.60 meaning I'd cashed the first bet of the week for nearly $25.

But that proved to be it for the day.  In the only other two plays, both for the minimum, I ran 9th as the 4/5 favorite and then 7th at 3/1 in the finale.

Thursday December 6th

I found the Thursday card much more "Gulfstream-like" when I handicapped.  As a result I had seven selections from the ten races and I felt pretty good about them all, and some were at what I thought would be fair prices.  I got fair prices most of the day, but not a single win.  My best chance came in the eighth when I had Hidden Facts, the 3/2 favorite.  It was a Maiden Special for 2yo - no, there weren't any Pletcher runners.  He'd faltered on the lead previously but looked to be the lone speed and much the best of these.  He set sail and was four clear heading into the far turn.  The fractions looked fast but jockey Julian Leparoux hadn't moved a muscle.  The field began gaining through the turn, but he still held the advantage inside the 16th pole.  But with less than 50 yards to go the 53/1 winner, yes fifty-three to one, edged by him.  Wow.

Friday December 7th

After the disappointment of Thursday I didn't know what to think of the Friday card.  But I DID know that my experience has been that in the long run it all evens out.  When I'm not hitting at the usual 33-35% clip, just be patient - I'll go on a run of high percentage wins and all is right with the handicapping world!  I was a late running 2nd in the opener at 3/1.  Then a no-show at 9/2 in the 3rd.  In the fifth it was a maiden claiming event for older runners going a mile on the turf.  The obvious favorite was King Orb.  He had been a $300K purchase and originally ran for Todd Pletcher before dropping into maiden claimers and changing barns.  The on-air analysts all talked like he was a solid single in the multi-race wagers.  I thought he was suspect.  And I thought even more suspect because C Major was in the race - he WAS a Todd Pletcher runner and he had Luis Saez up....just like the Wednesday opener where I won with False Info.  He too had debuted at GPW and had not only been wide on the turn for home but on the first turn as well and still had finished second.  He was 6/1 in the program and I was hopeful of getting a fair price.  I have to admit I took a second look at King Orb because he was getting pounded in the multi-race wagers, but I stuck with my pick.  While the favorite struggled in fifth to the far turn, Saez had C Major well in hand pressing the leader.  On the turn he took over and opened up.  He ran away to score by daylight and King Orb didn't even hit the board.  The best part.....C Major paid over $9 so I was cashing for nearly $50!  WHOOOO HOOOO!

I was fifth in the sixth race at 5/1 and I was hopeful of the "score of the day" in the 7th.  Last year I'd been handicapping and found a maiden race with a runner named Pretty Shea D.  From my days at Cypress Day High two of my most favorite girls were Kimmy Westmoreland and her partner in crime Christy Shade - who has the Facebook name of "Sea Shadey."  (That's Kimmy on the left, and Christy on the right)  I went with that filly on that day and 8/1 and she was a good second.  Went with her the next time and she disappointed.  Hadn't seen her since but she was in here today, and despite the name association I didn't like her chances.  Instead I thought that Irish Fix had a real upset chance with Paco Lopez.  This was a turf sprint and Irish Fix not only had the inside draw but had clearly the quickest early speed.  I could see Paco bursting out of the gate and sailing all the way to the wire.  She did go off at a big price, 7/1 but instead rated off the leaders and came running late.  But the 7/1 winner had been analyst Ron Nicoletti's "Upset Special" and she went wire to wire at 7/1.  Sigh....  The eighth was one of "those" races for which Gulfstream is noted.  Nearly every runner in this no-conditions allowance was a former graded stakes winner, but they all had been winless for a long time and/or had been away for a long time.  I liked Todd Pletcher's Biblical with John Velazquez.  Went off at a big 5/1 but ran evenly to be 7th.  In the 9th race it was an entry level allowance, which I typically find difficult to separate the contenders.  It is typical that I avoid these races because there are so many with solid chances.  But here I decided to go the minimum investment on Goodthingstaketime.  She had begun her career in Europe and after four starts (two of them seconds) she came to the US and promptly broke her maiden.  Since then she'd run in SIX STRAIGHT stakes races, four of them graded, earning four show checks and a runner-up check.  She most certainly would appreciate the class relief, but was she the kind that just likes to be close without winning was the issue.  I decided it was worth the minimum investment.  But as I watched the handicappers show prior to the start of the day's races all three talked at length about how Goodthingstaketime was a near "gimme" in the multi-race wagers.  As I watched the races streaming live I considered upping the bet.  When the 9th rolled around I checked all the multi-race payoffs and she was an overwhelming favorite.  I decided to go from a $5 bet to a $15 bet.  As they hit the far turn and she was still sixth I wondered about my decision.  But Irad Ortiz timed it perfectly and once in the clear in the lane she blew by to be up in the shadow of the wire and guarantee a winning day.

Finished 11th of twelve in the finale at 2/1, but I'd had a winning day and was hopeful it would set the stage for a big day Saturday at the races!

Saturday December 8th

This time last year Gulfstream hosted the Caribbean Classic Day card for the first time and I have to admit I was disappointed.  Five stakes with all Latin American runners where reading the Form is like looking at Chinese.  But there were six two-year-old stakes races prior to the Latin American races, and the same thing held true today.  So I handicapped several tracks and figured I could leave early for the hockey game.  But I found two Caribbean races I liked and won them both.  I won five of nine at Gulfstream and fourteen of twenty-five overall - had a great day.  Click HERE to read the detailed stories.

Caribbean Classic Day Highlights - Part 1

Caribbean Classic Day Highlights - Part 2

Sunday December 9th

After such a big day I thought maybe this would be a "return to normal" kind of day that balanced out the win percentage for the week.  And with eight picks from ten races I knew I'd have to be right on at least three or four to keep that from happening.  Not that I wasn't confident in my picks, but I have seen many times a Sunday card ruin the week's numbers after a huge Saturday.  So when it rained in Hallandale and we were off the turf, reducing my eight picks to four I wasn't totally disappointed.  In the second, a non-winners of 3-lifetime I noted that R Lucky Dice was either much the best or somebody would be the "upset special."  Rolled the front at 2/5 and clear into the stretch.....caught by a longshot.  Sigh.  Ran fifth as the 6/5 favorite in a 2yo maiden claimer - not a Pletcher!  In the 6th Dizzy Gillespie had Luis Saez and buried in his past performances were a string of 80 plus Beyers, HERE and at this one-turn mile.  He was dropping in class and with the top rider I thought he'd run back to those.  He did - just wish I'd invested more than the minimum.

So I was close to even heading into my "best" - a Pletcher first timer in a 2yo maiden special  John Velazquez up I was confident.  But as seems to be the theme in the short seven days of the meet, my pick missed the break.  Moved into contention then faded through the stretch.  I won't remember a lot about the Wed, Thur, Fri, and Sun cards but I will remember the BIG day Saturday!

Caribbean Classic Day

December 8th

The second Saturday of the Championship Meet was a big day....not only from a marketing standpoint as "Caribbean Classic Day," but also for me personally.  I so enjoyed the day and thought many times that THIS is why I love the winter racing season and specifically the Gulfstream Championship Meet so much.  Here's how the day unfolded......

I had picks in all six juvenile stakes locally and in the opener I liked the even money favorite....never picked up her feet and ran sixth.  In the second I liked Sweet Diane in the one-turn mile Hut Hut.  She sat the perfect trip in third to the turn, glided to the front and opened up by two.  But a 13/1 closer nailed her inside the final 100 yards, second.  Sigh....patience my son, the wins will come.  I tripled the bet on my first bet at Laurel on Thesweetesttaboo.  Just looked tons the best on paper and was sent off as the even money favorite.  Right to the front and cruising loose on the lead....while she seemed well within herself the fractions seemed too fast.  Yep, faded to fourth through the stretch.  The third at Gulfstream was the Buffalo Man Stakes, a six furlong sprint for juveniles.  The favorite was Jackson and that's significant because he was my BEST BET on the Sunshine Millions Preview Day card at Gulfstream Park West, and he won.  BUT, that day after a slow break and a wide trip he cleared into the lane and looked gone.  But he was life and death to hold on.  You could blame the trip but he had "the look" of a declining form horse to me so I went against him.  I liked Zenden who had been an ultra-impressive debut winner in September.  He had won that day in spite of trouble AND two had exited the race to win.  The rider was Emisael Jaramillo, who interestingly had ridden Jackson in the SSM Preview.  Hmmmm, did he decide to ride Zenden or did top rider Luis Saez bump him off?  Regardless I went with the new face.  The two of them dueled through the turn and opened up six on the field.  But at the furlong pole it was Zenden doing the better work and I had my first winner of the day!

Less than ten minutes later I scored at Laurel.  It was an $8K claiming sprint and trainer Lacey Gaudet, sister to hottie analyst Gabby Gaudet, had claimed The Great Provider last time out for $5K.  Like when first off the claim they are raised confidently.  The Great Provider had been claimed a year ago by Gaudet and he'd won for her before she lost him later to the claim box.  The 26% first off the claim win average all seemed to point to the fact that he'd be the favorite.  But instead he was the second choice at better than 2/1.  At Laurel it's significant here to know that their run-ups to the timing mechanisms are shorter so the times are always slower.  When The Great Provider zipped the opening half mile in :44.4 after a blistering opening quarter in :21.4 I knew he had to be cooked.  Those numbers would be equivalent to at least :21.0 and :43 and change here at Gulfstream.  But when the challengers moved in at the top of the stretch he just kept right on going!  WHOOOO HOOO!  And the big $6.80 payoff led to me cashing for $34 on my second win of the day!

Back to my seat in Section 101 and it was time for the Smooth Air Stakes.  Garter And Tie looked like a VERY legitimate favorite to me.  Many of the juveniles on today's card have run one big Beyer recently that probably led their connections to consider this stakes try.  But Garter and Tie had run THREE big numbers recently.  You could make a case that perhaps he was "declining" off the second place run last time out, but he comes from a stalking spot and had no chance chasing a loose on the lead winner.  I was encouraged when both Ron Nicoletti and Jason Blewitt commented on air that Garter and Tie had been one of the most impressive two-year-olds on the grounds.  He sat behind a dueling pair to the far turn then made his three-wide bid.  At the furlong pole it was still up in the air, but I thought he had the momentum.  The final margin was a lot closer than I thought it really was, as jockey Tyler Gafflione seemed confident through the final sixteenth to the wire.

With my triple investment I cashed for nearly $30 on my third winner in a row!  As Garter and Tie made his way into the winner's circle I was pulling up the 3rd from Aqueduct on my smart phone via xpressbet.com.....This was a maiden special for 2yo fillies and the connections of Shelly Ann had thought enough of her to DEBUT her in a stakes going a mile.  She drew post eleven of eleven and that probably nullified what small chance she might have had.  Today she was sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs - the ideal turn-back - and dropping in with maidens.  I thought she deserved to be much lower than the 8/1 program odds.  She left the gate at 5/2 and after dueling briefly out of the turn she ran away by nearly a pole for my FOURTH consecutive win.  Oh, this COULD be one of "those" days that I love so much about Gulfstream!  I ran a non-threatening sixth at Laurel at a nice 4/1 price and then I was at Tampa for one of just two races I liked on their card.  Longden had been in the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in Southern California before being moved across the country today.  While his form wasn't great, it wasn't bad out west and anything close to that should win this entry level allowance.  Away a big slowly he got into a tracking spot on the rail to the far turn, swung out three wide and opened up with ease as the 6/5 favorite, win number five!  Just as the Tampa race was official the horses were crossing onto the turf course at Gulfstream for the Pulpit Stakes, slated for one mile for two-year-olds.  Henley's Joy was my BET of the Day at Gulfstream in here!  As I remarked in my analysis, there are a lot of factors that are useful in handicapping, but perhaps the most significant is that "pace makes the race."  Here Henley's Joy looked to be set-up for the most ideal pressing/tracking trip over these and have PLENTY left for the stretch drive.  And he had the class edge having won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile, just missed in the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland (2nd beaten a nose) and then a toss out over the yielding Churchill course in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  The drop to Florida-bred listed stakes rivals was oh-so-obvious.  The only negative I could even consider was the often times post-Breeders' Cup flop where horses who exit Breeders' Cup tries come back as heavy favorites and disappoint.  But he just looked way, WAY too good for these.  The race unfolded exactly like it looked on paper.  The top two were multiple lengths clear into the lane and then Henley's Joy opened up with another gear altogether to win going away, and under wraps.

I was amazed that he wasn't less than even money and gladly cashed my nearly $50 winning ticket!  Missed in a Laurel 2yo stake when 2nd at 2/1 and then was a distant sixth in the last of the juvenile events at Gulfstream when Bill Mott's Aunt Hattie didn't run at 7/2 odds.  I had handicapped the Aqueduct card and wondered about how worthy it was to pay the $3.75 for the card considering how often the weather cancels the program.  But it appeared they would be ok today.  Their feature was the six furlong Garland of Roses for older sprinters.  Vertical Oak had won this listed event last year and in a five horse field only one rival looked good enough to challenge her.  She was a Gr 2 winner and had been graded stakes placed several other times.  On paper it just seemed way too easy.  As I opened the race on my app I saw that the one filly I thought had an upset chance had scratched and Vertical Oak was 1/9 with ten minutes to post.  I considered upping the bet but then thought better of it - why risk more money for next to no return.  Somehow, despite the short field she floated up to a generous 3/5 at post time.  The other two betting choices dueled to the far turn and as they were daylight clear with three furlongs to run I wondered if the pace flow would compromise Vertical Oak.  In a well timed ride she caught them at the furlong pole and edged clear confidently....my seventh win overall today!

Caribbean Classic Day Highlights - Part 1

I missed on three picks before making my first bet of the day at the Fair Grounds.  When I was considering coming to the track on Saturday and knowing that the second half of the live card were all Latin American races - where it would be "go figure" on handicapping - I checked to see what was happening at other tracks.  And in New Orleans it was "Louisiana Champions Day" which is one of my favorite days to play the races from here.  I was able to get the past performances on Wednesday and handicapped the twelve race card.  Well, the first four were quarter horse events, so I blew by those.  Of the eight thoroughbred races I had five selections.  But on the ensuing days leading up to Saturday the national weather story was a huge storm blowing across the Midwest that looked like it would sitting on New Orleans on Saturday.  Sure enough, the conditions listed prior to the first race read, "Heavy rain, fog, OFF the turf."  And so I lost two of my five bets.  But the fifth race was the Louisiana Champions Lassie for two-year-old fillies.  I had played the races Opening Week here and on Opening Day I really liked the first time starter Midnight Fantasy.  She had dazzling works for her debut and was ultra-impressive as she ran to those works.  She was giving up experience and not only facing winners for the first time but stakes rivals.  But she was the bet.  I switched over to the Fair Grounds on my xpressbet account and they were headed into the gate with Midnight Fantasy not only the favorite but a huge 1/9 choice.  I actually tried to get an add-on bet but it was too late.  Right to the front she splashed to the lead and won easily.  This filly has some talent let me tell you!  My eighth winner!

I ran second with a big rally in a Laurel stakes - I'd gone against the two favorites and nearly got the price!  When I was writing up my analysis for the Gulfstream races for my web page and I got to the 7th race, the start of the Caribbean Classic events I was about to save and print but then it occured to me that since I was going to be there I'd at least make my comments based upon what the public handicappers had to say.  I commented on the 7th that I don't know how an American handicapper like me could make a serious bet based on the scant information provided in the past performances from these Latin American runners AND they were coming from all different track to race at a North American venue.  WAY too many questions for me.  But in the ninth, the Caribbean Speed Cup I found something.  I read what the "experts" said and then scanned through the past performances.  Wait a minute!  Big Bonus One leaped off the page.  First, unlike today's rivals he'd only been out twice and won both of them.  No matter what ability he does or doesn't have, to ship a horse internationally after just two starts AND into a multi-country stakes event says something about what the connections think they have.  But what jumped off the page - which I mention in my video (Part 2 below) was an angle I frequently use......Big Bonus One had worked here at Gulfstream and posted a huge best-of-109 bullet work - yes, one-hundred-and-nine.  ANY horse that posts THAT kind of workout is ready to run.  At 8/1 in the program I bet the minimum.  I thought that it was pretty unique and cool that all of these Caribbean races featured a Latin American track announcer.  And with the huge a raucous Hispanic crowd it just made it a really unique and "BIG DAY" kind of atmosphere.  Big Bonus One was bet down to 5/2 odds under jockey Paco Lopez who sat just off the speed to the top of the lane.  Split horses, dueled briefly and then edged clear to thunderous cheers, including my own as I had my FIRST Caribbean Classic Stakes win!

I passed the next live event and now we were down to the final two races on my selection sheet, that I was going to watch live that is.  My plan was to leave by 5 pm in order to be home by 6 pm so I could grab a quick bite to eat and leave for the Florida Panthers hockey game around 6:30 pm.  The seventh at the Fair Grounds had a 4:24 post time and the finale at Gulfstream was set for 4:50 pm.  In the 7th in New Orleans it was the Louisiana Champions Juvenile - the companion race to the one I'd won earlier with Midnight Fantasy.  My choice, Classy John was similar that filly.  On Beyer figures he should finish daylight lengths in front, as she had.  But unlike 'Fantasy who entered that stakes off a maiden win without ever having been six furlongs, Classy John HAD won at the distance, when he broke his maiden at Saratoga....and we all know only the best/most promising of two-year-olds race at the Spa in the summer!  Classy John also had a start against winners when he stretched to seven furlongs and was a best-of-the-rest second against open company.  The turn back to six panels and drop into La-bred company should make him much the best.  As I opened the race on xpressbet it was about three minutes to post time and HE was also 1/9.  I checked quickly the multi-race payoffs and he was an overwhelming favorite.  I had already planned to bet double on him (only a single investment had been the plan on Midnight Fantasy) and I upped the bet.  He too went right to the front under a snug hold, drew off by widening lengths without ever being asked!  WIN # TEN!

You could feel the electricity in the air at Gulfstream as the analysts handicapped the field for the featured Caribbean Classic.  This was the second of the Latin American races that I was betting.  While there wasn't anything on paper, like with Big Bonus One, the favorite looked really, REALLY legitimate.  Kulklkan had won the Mexican Triple Crown, and at first glance if would be a fair question to ask, but who did he beat?  In his last four starts he'd won by more than a combined forty lengths!  But again, who did he beat?  AND he was a perfect 13-for-13 in his career!  So for me, the fact that the program made him the prohibitive 3/5 favorite, he was unbeaten in thirteen starts, had never really seen anyone that could compete with him, and he'd worked locally he seemed a good bet.  But again, I asked myself, who had he beaten?  And then it occurred to me, I'll tell you who's he's beaten.....horses like he will face today!  It's not like he was coming to North America with these angles and would be facing quality US horses....he was facing the same caliber - good or bad, doesn't matter - of Latin American runners!  Doubled the bet.  The crowd roared as they burst from the gate.  Irad Ortiz had him mid-pack to the far turn and then he let him go.  While I couldn't understand anything the announcer was saying, the excitement as he said "KUKULKAN" several times told me that something special was happening.  As they turned for home the champion was six lengths clear.  He continued to widen the margin until it was more than ten past the wire!  My fifth win from nine selections at Gulfstream and eleventh overall.  WOW, what a day!

But, as I remarked on camera, as I left for home and the hockey game I still had some races on my selection sheet.  I originally had three picks from the Fair Grounds on the final page of my selection sheet, but one was now off the turf and I passed the race.  I really liked Monte Man in the Louisiana Sprint.  He was working on a seven race win streak and had won the prep for this handily.  What about the off-going?  He'd won over four different tracks, and that included fast, good, TURF, and sloppy going.  He was 6/5 when I watched the replay and looked in hand to the turn.  But when asked to go on with it he finished evenly, third.  Disappointing.  In the twelfth and finale, the Louisiana Champions Ladies Sprint I had Ours To Run.  I wrote that I was betting with my head because this filly looked best, but my heart wanted to bet on Minit To Stardom who'd been really impressive as a two-year-old this time last year.  But after two sensational wins she'd run poorly in the August 4th Grade 1 Test Stakes.  I would be willing to forgive that effort, but what bothered me was that her trainer Al Stall is off to an 0-for-29 start to the meet - ouch.  Unlike the two juvenile winners, Ours To Run sat off the pace to the far turn, swept up and ran away as much, MUCH the best.  Only paid $3.20 and I only had the minimum, but hey - it's another winner on the day!

The other two selections came from Los Alamitos Race Course which now runs a thoroughbred meeting because Hollywood Park closed a few years ago.  I had looked at the entire card, but honestly the only two races I liked were the two co-features, both Grade 1 events.  And the story in each race was the same.....which Bob Baffert trainee to put the money on because he had two in each race and if only one were in either race they'd go off as heavy favorites.  In the fifth, the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity the choice was either Improbable or Mucho Gusto, and from what I read, Baffert was high on both of these colts.  But I'd also read several times that Improbable just might be the best two-year-old in the overloaded Baffert shedrow.  And that is saying alot since one of his "other" two-year-olds is unbeaten, multiple Grade 1 winner Game Winner.  And HE is most assuredly going to win the Eclipse Award for top juvenile after winning the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  I'd seen Improbable on the undercard that day when he waltzed with the Street Sense Stakes.  And based on what I'd read, and more importantly my visual impression he was the bet - in fact I made him a prime time bet!  After breaking from the rail he was wide into the first turn; then he raced at least five wide down the backstretch and was wide through the far turn.  How many lengths is this costing him I wondered as I watched.  Meanwhile Mucho Gusto was skimming the rail saving all the ground on the lead.  Off the turn Improbable drew even to Mucho Gusto and the two kicked away for a sixteenth of a mile.  Then Improbable demonstrated why he is getting so much hype.  Without truly being asked he left his stablemate far, far behind - and he was daylight clear of the field.  VERY impressive!

Like Ours To Run I didn't make much, even with a prime-time play, but it was my 13th winner of the day.  Finally, in the companion race, the Grade 1 Starlet Bob Baffert had Mother Mother who looked very similar to Improbable.  After a debut win she'd run second in the Gr 1 Del Mar Debutante then won the Rags To Riches at Churchill Downs.  But she'd have to face Chasing Yesterday.  She is a half-sister to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and she won her debut with ease.  But as the favorite in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga she didn't fire.  But since returning to So Cal she'd won back-to-back stakes....but against very small fields.  Today she got a nearly identical trip as Improbable, and her stablemate Mother Mother was on the lead into the lane.  But Chasing Yesterday was a determined 5-wide challenger.  Inside the final 100 yards it was my top choice and a 30/1 longshot.  Heads and heads down, surging.....PHOTO FINISH!  But I was pretty certain that announcer Bobby Newman had it right in calling Chasing Yesterday the winner - and she was!

Caribbean Classic Day Highlights - Part 2

For the day a remarkable 14 wins from 25 selections - a whopping 56% and a solid profit!  What a great send-off to our European Christmas Markets Cruise with Viking Cruise lines this week.  I'll be back with the action at Gulfstream two weeks from today!

Some photos which capture some of the festive atmosphere enjoyed Saturday!