March 20 - 24: Louisiana Derby Week
A week filled with stories as we wind down the winter meet and begin to look towards the Triple Crown spring season and on to the long summer season which will most likely see me without a visit to the races live until next December....but we'll see what the future brings. Meanwhile, here's how the week unfolded for me.......
Wednesday kicked off the week and a preview of the day came in the opener where Hey River was the oh-so-obvious choice and left the gate at even money....then ran a dull fifth to kick off a winless day with four selections on the sheet. Thursday, after missing with my first pick I got my first winner of the week when Chad Brown's Lookinforbargains blew by the longshot leaders at the top of the lane and drew off by nearly a pole in a one mile MSW turf event.
I passed both the third and the fourth, and then in what was the "Story of the Week" we came to R5, a starter optional claiming event going seven and a half furlongs on the turf where the conditions called for runners to have previously run for a $35K price tag or less. This analysis is typical of why you have to just "keep firing" because you never know in racing what's going to happen......
Let me just point out a couple of the key elements to the above...... most of the field qualified because they had been running with limited success against CHEAPER $25K rivals while Rough Draft had been running against BETTER rivals. When coming to SoFla he DID run against THIS level, to qualify and was a runaway winner. Off the win he stepped UP IN CLASS to $50K starter allowance before dropping back down to this level last time out - but tried a new surface. Claimed away by a barn that WINS 27% at a $4.17 ROI he comes back here, to his preferred surface. Considering all that, you would HAVE to think any good handicapper worth their salt would bet this guy right? Yet he was listed at 6/1 in the program. Well, oh so many times the crowd is far smarter than the morning line maker (which at Gulfstream is "Brian Nanewnanew" who I don't think much of as an analyst or handicapper). The fourth race goes official and I open my Xpressbet program to race five, and open the wagering menu, hit the $10 WIN button and am ready to click on #4 Rough Draft when I see his current odds are 12/1. Wait.....what? I go back and re-read my analysis. I check the multi-race wagers and he's not getting much respect. Clicked out of the wagering menu. If he's not getting ANY support and is ice cold, I'm not wasting my money. Then....wait, opened the wagering menu, clicked $10 WIN, #4....re-read my analysis. No...no bet. Clicked out. As soon as I did the thought ran through my head, "What if he DOES win at a price?" OK....I'm as good or better than most handicappers and nearly everyone else in here is wrong. Ten to win it is. Rough Draft tracked the leaders saving ground to the far turn and began to make his move. I'm thinking, "I really DO have a chance here!" They hit the stretch and he's in between runners......one of the other two can't keep up.....PHOTO FINISH....
And the best part is he DID leave the gate at double digit odds, and I DID cash for well over $100! And to think I almost didn't bet.....WOW.
I'm a winner today (and for the two days of the week so far for that matter) regardless of what hppens. But I padded my stats in R6 when Admiral Hooper was first across the line with my double investment on board.
Friday the big storm system moved into the area, and while here at the house it "just rained" most of the day, some parts in the Miami area got up to nine inches of rain. Obviously we were off the turf and it reduced my play on the day to just two runners. In the opener, a nw3L event it looked to me like Cool Memory was a "standout" - but as I said in my analysis...can there be such a thing in a cheap $12.5K non-winners of three lifetime. Because of that I planned to bet the minimum. But he was getting absolutely pounded on the board, so I upped the bet to $10. Were it not for the Rough Draft story, this would have been one of the top highlights of the week. Spinning out of the turn, Cool Memories was dead in the water and Announcer Pete even commented "certainly he's too late now" as he began to gather a little momentum. But suddenly with a 16th to go he literally, as Trevor Denman would say, "sprouted wings" and inhaled the field to be up in the nick of time. Keith was watching with me and said out loud, 'That's unbelievable1" And it was, but I cashed my lone ticket of the day.
Saturday: Louisiana Derby Day
Because of the continuing rain - it DID rain all the way to Gulfstream, but it was "scheduled" to stop sometime mid-to-late afternoon - I purchased seats INSIDE the Silks Simulcast Center. I also did this because the racing locally was pretty weak and all of my "good bets" would be out of town. So we had seats with our own TV. But, as I said to "my girl Kimberly" the twin teller, "....you gotta love the track and just keep going...." as the afternoon unfolded. Why would I say that? Well the day started with four losses, two off-the-board finishes with 6/5 favorites and a third by a prohibitive 2/5 favorite. WOW. But in the opener at Oaklawn I got my first winner when St. Olaf Rose blew by the front runner at the furlong pole and drew off easily as much the best.
Missed with the next two but then Copper Echo outlasted his rivals at Oaklawn in their second and then Yellow card went wire to wire at Turfway at a handsome 7/2 allowing me to cash for nearly $50. So a little after 2pm I stood at 3-for-8 and less than $10 behind. I'm ok with that.....
I went fifteen consecutive races from that point without a win. It was a L-O-N-G drought to be sure, and when I said to Kimberly, "Time to break a big bill" she said she was sorry and hoped I would soon break out of the slump. "Highlighting" this big skid came in the Latonia Stakes at Turfway where my "Bet of the Day" was Botanical. She was a perfect 5-for-5 at Turfway, including two stakes wins. Looked oh-so-much the best, even at even money. Ran a dull fifth. WOW. But then, shortly after I remarked to Keith that I hoped the "second page" of my selection sheet would be better, I finally got back into the winner's circle with Red Route One in the Grade 2 New Orleans at the Fair Grounds as part of their multi-stakes Louisiana Derby program. The field looked evenly matched and to make things "worse," the 1-2-3-4 runners of the prep for this, the Gr 3 Mineshaft all returned. Red Route One had finished fourth that day, but why I thought he'd improve today was because, not only was he going third off the shelf but at this nine furlong trip he was 4/2-1-0. At all other distances - including the Mineshaft - he was 1-for-13. He was near the back as the field approached the far turn, but I wasn't terribly concerned because the pace had been hot. Came flying up the rail with a dream trip into the lane. Moved into the clear and drew off. And as an added bonus, he'd left the gate at a generous 9/2 so my double investment ticket when I handed it to Kimberly led her to give me almost $60 in return!
GOOD FOR ME betting, and hitting the next selection with a triple investment on Nash in the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn going a two turn mile on the main track. Why? Late last fall when he broke his maiden going two turns at Churchill he was so dazzling that he immediately became many people's early pick to win the Kentucky Derby. But in three straight stakes at the Fair Grounds I could make excuses for him. But this would be his "last chance," because as I'd thought in the previous three....on paper he just looked much the best. Sat fourth to the far turn, then readily glided up three wide to the front and sling-shotted to the front. The finish line was at the 16th pole with a short stretch run, but he still drew off by multiple lengths while well in hand. WHOOO HOOOO - two in a row. HERE we go!
Right back minutes later at the Fair Grounds in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial going nine furlongs on the grass. I'm Very Busy had drawn the "parking lot" post staring from the 13th slot wide on the course, but with the long run through the FG stretch I thought Irad Ortiz could get decent position. Off the layoff he'd been ambitiously entered in the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf and was 2nd beaten less than a length by multiple Group 1 winner Warm Heart (who was MY "prime time" pick that day!). Any improvement second off the bench and he'd be a daylight winner I thought. Right out of the gate Ortiz let the inside runners clear and he shot over to the two path. Began picking off runners through the turn while racing in between rivals. Then fanned nearly eight wide into the lane to get open grass and blew by to draw off in a sensational effort. And much like Red Route One, he was NOT a prohibitive favorite, paying $6.80, so I collected another handful of cash.
Missed in a Turfway stakes but was right back to Kimberly's window to cash AGAIN after the Grade 3 Essex at Oaklawn. First Mission was a lightly raced, multiple stakes winner for Brad Cox. The rest of the field was "good," but no stars in the line-up. And a best-of-30 bullet sealed the deal. Pressed the front runner to the top of the lane, glided to the front and scampered off by nearly a pole under wraps. I'm having a good end of the day my friends!
It was time for the final three plays of the day, and they were arguably the highlight races of the day. First up was the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks with the winning filly stamping her ticket to the first Friday in May for the big Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Tarifa looked a solid pick to me coming off a win in the prep for this, the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra. She stalked the pace to the turn, collared the leader and fought off a courageous longshot to the 16th pole before drawing clear as much the best.
The Grade 3 Jack Ruby Stakes at Turfway is their signature race and it is a Kentucky Derby prep wiht 50 points to the winner, almost certainly guaranteeing a spot in the Derby gate. I thought Endlessly was a legitimate favorite on his own merits. He was lightly raced having won two stakes on turf, then last time out won a stakes on the Golden Gate synthetic main track. While it's a different kind of "plastic track" it's not turf, so I thought he'd run well here. Second, that the connections shipped from California to run here told me they had to think they had a big chance. But most of all, jockey Umberto Rispoli came along from So Cal to ride. Uh oh - they're serious. Stalked the leaders into the far turn, split runners into the stretch with a full head of steam and drew off impressively!
As they approached the gate for the national race of the day, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Keith said to me as we watched, "Can you finish the day with a trifecta of three in a row?" I replied I liked my chances, and the fact that Catching Freedom was NOT the favorite was even better. But as the field approached the far turn in the midst of their nine-and-one-half furlong trip I was wondering if I really could win because he was dead, DEAD LAST. But as the front runners bent into the turn you could see he suddenly accelerated and quickly was picking off rivals. Out of the turn jockey Flavian Prat opted to run in the clear down the middle of the track, at least ten wide. He was gobbling up ground, but did he have enough time.....YES HE DID! And he hit the wire with final odds of 3/1 allowing my final winning ticket to be worth over $40. Finished the day with almost 30% winners, but despite the glacially slow start, finished with a flat bet profit!
Sunday I would have been shut out because all five of my Gulfstream picks failed to score. But I was watching the races on FanDuel TV and in the 10th at the Fair Grounds it was a listed event. When the analysts remarked that the favorite was Ova Charged, I thought "I KNOW that horse and she's legitimately good!" Quickly bet on her and she wired the field by nearly a dozen lengths to close out the week.
Thanks to the big winner, Rough Draft, on Thursday AND the multiple nice-priced winners on Saturday I finished the week with a solid profit despite being a little under my typical winning percentage. Now we look forward to a Big Saturday this week - Florida Derby Day!
Social Media this week......
The last few weeks I've had a lot of social interaction online, so it seemed like I had very few "conversations" this week, though it's a much more "normal week" for such interactions. Lauren Pastrana did not share any thoughts regarding my "script" but then I DID tell her there was no rush and she is a Mom to two little ones AND works a full time job, so there's that. We did have one exchange when I complimented her story on a local family's loss of their daughter.
"My girl Karli" posted that she was on an assignment at a wine tasting and I asked her to save me a BIG glass of my favorite wine, moscato. One of the things I love about Karli - at least in my "relationship" with her is that nearly always she doesn't just respond with a "like" but will answer me by name, and though it was just an emoji, she did refer to me by name and I know, she knows who I am and I'm certain she was smiling when she sent it.
Probably the biggest smile of the week for social media pals came when for the first time in a month my sweet friend Petra who we met on the Viking Osiris in Egypt responded to my message and we had about a ten minute "conversation" as we exchanged messages.
I reacted to Mishele & Jeff's post as they were out and about AGAIN and she replied..... (he too later "liked" the comment.
Finally, long time gal-pal Shelly posted a pic of her and her husband, my buddy Ty and they looked so cute together - this led to an exchange of messages.
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