Gulfstream Week 14

 Fountain of Youth Week

It was a very good week for picking winners, and it was a great day at the track Saturday.  It made the week even more enjoyable that I had multiple winners every day.  Wednesday I started off by doubling the bet on Kartano in a claiming event going two turns on the synthetic.  He was near the back of the pack to the far turn then wove his way inside and outside of runners to reach contention in mid-stretch and wore down the leaders late to score.

Missed on the next two before I hit the "best" of the day with Grimes in a nw2L five furlong sprint, again on the Tapeta.  It was a $35K event and I thought with a little creativity in interpreting the past performances this guy was a standout.  Toss the route tries and the extended six and a half furlong try.  That left you with three synthetic sprints.  Second for $50K when beaten a neck followed by a win in a $40K maiden event.  Moved to face winners in a $50K starter allowance and earned a nearly identical Beyer (77-78) to his maiden win.  Drops in for a tag and a restricted one a that.  Duh, hello.....  He was fifth early behind a wicked :21 and change quarter and a :44 sizzling half.  Swung five wide and was JUST up in time to win.

That WAS really close, but it was equally close with my final bet of the day when Utah Beach won a mile and a half turf event under entry level allowance conditions.  Tracked the pace through the first ten furlongs into the lane, skimmed the rail to the front a 16th out and JUST held on for the score.

Thursday saw me score twice and BOTH brought be great satisfaction.  I am NOT a big fan of new Gulfstream Park analyst Brian Nadeau.  First, not a fan that when he goes through a race he's so very opinionated that he gives the impression that if you don't go with him, or if you go with the horse he does NOT like, you're foolish.  So today in Race 3, he made the comment "I'm completely against Emaraaty."  He went on to say that he thought it was foolish in a multi race wager to put the two most likely winners on the ticket at a short price.  But doesn't that mean if you're wrong, with what would seem to be a very likely scenario you lose the whole thing?  DUH.  I thought Emaraaty was a solid pick.  Tracked the pace setters while between runners to the stretch and edged clear.  Mr. Brian also was against the favorite in the 4th, a nw2L event on the synthetic and again I thought Mad Madame Mim was a solid pick.  Near the back to the turn, swept up 4-5 wide and blew by handily.  I wish I could have seen Mr. Brian tossing his tickets away.

Friday was a good day as I hit on four selections, two of which were "audibles" I made on race day.  And one of them turned out to be the "BEST Bet of the Week" - for a non-Saturday bet at least.  I originally did not like the opener, a maiden claiming race, at all.  But the favorite, Llamarda, was described as an "obvious short priced winner."  And he was getting pounded.  With John Velazquez up how could you go wrong (except that it IS horse racing!).  Pressed the pace to the lane and drew off by a pole.  I found it "interesting" that the analyst on FanDuel TV remarked "you're supposed to bet against these types," but as I said to Keith - yes, if you DON"T THINK THEY WILL WIN.  If they are the obvious winner and that's a legitimate price you're foolish to bet just on price.  What ever, I WIN!

Got a nice price on Fluid at 3/1 in the very next race, a maiden claimer for 3yo going two turns on te grass and then after passing the third scored again in the fourth with my second "audible" of the day.  My top choice scratched and Evanora was being pounded in all the pools to win this maiden optional claiming event for 3yo going six furlongs on the main track.  My concern was the barn's 0-for-16 record at the meet so I only bet the minimum.  Blew by to a clear lead in the stretch then was all out to last to the wire.  A win is a WIN!

The seventh looked to be a near-stakes quality event for 3yo going two turns.  But the obvious favorite for Todd Pletcher, Speak Easy scratched to run instead in tomorrow's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  More on him in a bit.  That left Shug McGaughey's very talented Conquest Warrior as the obvious choice.  That the connections openly said that a big effort today would send him to the Florida Derby gave me the confidence to make him the BEST Bet and go "prime time" on him.  Fourth behind horses to the turn where he split rivals, got clear race track outside and drew off impressively.  With the four wins and a BIG WIN I felt like I'd built some momentum for the big day tomorrow at the track.

Saturday:  Fountain of Youth Day

When we arrived at Gulfstream for the loaded card - FOURTEEN races with a first post of 11:15 am .... NINE stakes events, eight of them graded - I went to the desk in the Silks Simulcast Center to get the wrist bands to allow us to sit in the grandstand with the tickets I'd purchased which were on my phone.  As I chatted with the guy there I asked him if it would be possible for him to print out my sixteen Florida Derby Tix.  I asked this because last year, when I had all ten on my phone as mobile tickets, every time someone arrived at the track I had to stop what I was doing, find them, take them to the grandstand and find the tickets on my phone in the glare of the bright sunlight.  ALSO it was a problem finding which one of the ten had been scanned and which had not been.  So I thought it would be a lot easier to have hard copy tickets.  I can give Jeff his & Trista's ticket ahead of time and the six for the FAU people coming.  That leaves me with the three for Kim, Keith and I and the three for the Nelsons (see below under "Social Media" and the two for my good buddy Kathy and her husband which I can hand to them at the track as they generally arrive early like we do.  He printed them and I thought it would be photo-worthy....sent them out to all the peeps going to the big Derby Day event.

With a scratch out of the Laurel opener at 12:30, the first five races on my selection sheet from 11:15 am to 1:20 pm were the first five events at Gulfstream.  A dismal eighth at 3/1, second at 5/2 when a Todd Pletcher-Irad Ortiz 3yo maiden blew by at 9/1 - how did I miss that?  Second again at 5/2 in the 3rd and finally got on the board in the San Cristobol Handicap, the one and only race on the all weather surface today.  I thought Exact Estimate was the one to bet, in spite of being from the cold Chad Brown barn.  Having lost the first three races, and none of them being favorites I used "track psychology" and upped the bet on my pick.  Got to the front in the stretch, was confronted by the other favorite.  They dueled the length of the stretch but Exact Estimate never let him by.

I was off the board in the 5th at Gulfstream and the 2nd at Aqueduct, then thought I had a winner at 4/5 at Laurel when he cruised up to the leader.  But couldn't get by, second.  It was time for the sixth at Gulfstream and my plan was originally to place a double investment on Todd Pletcher's Kingbarns who'd won his first three races last year as a 3yo, topped off by a win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  But he was being heavily bet in all the pools and as I considered his chances in this field I opted to elevate him to the "BEST Bet of the Day" status and went $20 to win on him in this second level allowance going seven furlongs on the main track.  I have to admit I was more than a touch concerned when he seemed to less than interested in fifth going through the far turn.  Finally seemed to realize it was time to run and he advanced between runners into the clear at the top of the stretch.  But he was not gaining all that quickly as I watched from the rail.  But inside the final furlong the leader was tiring and Kingsbarn was in full flight and was up in time!

Skidded through two seconds out of town and then watch Main Event lead all the way to the top of the stretch before fading to fourth in the eleven furlong Grade 2 Mac Diarmida on the turf.  I dashed inside and caught Gamer Nate drawing off at the Fair Grounds.  Missed at Oaklawn at a big 7/1 price when second - that would have been nice!  Then in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride for 3yo fillies on the turf, Todd Pletcher's Life's An Audible surged to the front inside the final furlong only to be nailed in a head bobbing finish.  Went into the simulcast area and watched first Gut Feeling at Aqueduct and then Midnight Rising at Oaklawn score with my double investment and they both paid generously ($7.00 and $6.80).

In the eighth at Gulfstream, the Grade 2 Davona Dale for 3yo fillies going a mile for Kentucky Oaks points, the 2yo champion Just FYI scratched.  She'd not been my pick, because I thought Todd Pletchers very talented Leslie's Rose looked like a legitimate Oaks runner.  She was now the prohibitive 1/5 favorite but coming out of the turn she had no kick to the wire and was third.  WOW - almost upped the bet on her like on Kingsbarn, but opted not to.  Wise and mature decision :)   At this point I turned the page to the second sheet of selections and it had only been an "OK" day with five wins from the first eighteen selections.  I will say though, I was enjoying the day quite a bit.  Not only being there on a big day with a big crowd with good racing.  But ever time I made a wager I went to "my girl Kimberly" - the twin teller - and while we usually exchange comments, today we seemed to have legitimate conversations about multiple topics all day long, making for a very "social afternoon."  Next up was the Grade 3 The Very One Stakes going eleven furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares.  I thought that R Cali Kim was a legitimate favorite, and of course liked that she bore my honey's name :)  More than a little concerned as they hit the far turn and she was still towards the back of the field.  Still sixth into the lane and some seven wide when suddenly she seemed to be taking three or four strides to ever one that her rivals were taking and as "announcer Pete" said, "she erupted" down the middle of the lane and blew by as easily best.

The next race on my sheet was the "Best Bet of the Day" from New York where I thought Christophe Clement's Jody's Pride would be the winner of the Busher Stakes for 3yo fillies and collect fifty points towards a berth in the Kentucky Oaks.  Pressed the front runner into the lane, got a head in front, dueled.....the long time leader came back at her, but inside the final 16th she edged clear to make my "prime time" ticket worth nearly $40!  Minutes later I was watching the screen from the Fair Grounds as A G's Charlotte rallied through the stretch to win the Red Camilia Stakes - that's three in a row my friends!

I picked up two wins in non-stakes events when Intrepid Dreamer drew off at Laurel and Speedy Traveler wired a Fair Grounds race.  Interesting story about the Laurel event.  I'd made a series of bets and had watched the races, went back to Kimberly and made another series of bets.  Was watching the AG Charlotte race when I realized I needed to bet the Aqueduct race.  Checked my tickets and I'd bet the Intrepid Dreamer race twice - had TWO $10 WIN tickets.  The first thing I thought was, "never cash a ticket you've got by mistake - those almost always win."  Looked at the board and she was being well bet - this is a good race to have doubled the bet by mistake.  Then I thought better of it.  Sigh....should have followed "the rule."  After missing in two out of town stakes - both running poorly to finish 7th - it was time for the Grade 3 Canadian Turf here at Gulfstream.  He'd won this turf event last year and looked like a legitimate winner to me.  Somehow the crowd let him go off at 5/2 despite jockey Irad Ortiz winning everything in sight (won five on the day) and Todd Pletcher already with multiple winners on the afternoon.  Happily let Kimberly dish out $35 on the win.

Chili Flag was my pick in the Grade 3 Honey Fox on the turf at Gulfstream.  After the Emmanuel win I'd run 2nd at 6/5 at Laurel and then opted not to bet the Grade 3 Tom Fool when my pick was ice cold on the board (and didn't run in the money).  Was 2nd at 4/5 in the second stakes at the Fair Grounds and then missed at Oaklawn at 3/1.  I didn't think there was a big edge on Chili Flag to justify more than a minimum bet, but the way she rallied and blew by I should have bet more.  Still, for a minimum bet I cashed for over $15 as she paid over $6 on a $2 bet.  

Missed with two more out of town then as Keith and I stood at the first finish line along the rail waiting for the start of the featured Fountain of Youth I watched Kantex win the Downthedustyroad Breeders' Stakes at Oaklawn.  Was behind a wall of horses into the lane, found a seam on the rail but seemed hopelessly too far back at the furlong pole before surging to be JUST up in time.  The triple investment netted me more than $30.  Then as we watched the 3yo warming up on the track, Todd Pletcher's talented Speak Easy - who had only the debut maiden win....which had earned a whopping 100 Beyer - and he was my bet - ran off after tossing the jockey.  A field of nine with early scratches and now the second choice and my bet scratched held no interest for Keith or I and we headed off to the Yardhouse for dinner.  Thanks to my buddy for paying for the delicious meal!

All day long, like on nearly all the big Saturday's I'd been following the three handicappers results who get PAID to guide the betting public.  Sitting at the dinner table I ran the totals.....something not right about this, eh?

And then Sunday morning I went back and looked at all the big Saturday results for the handicappers compared to my own results:

For me, while happy that I'm "the best," it just really irritates me that these guys get paid - and probably a pretty good amount of money to be the guide for the average fan that doesn't do their own handicapping.  And they are not only not as good as I am, but are frankly bad at it.  That's just not right that they are consistently off the mark like this.

Fountain of Youth Day Highlights

Sunday I had not only the Gulfstream picks, but in Southern California the races at Santa Anita for Saturday - which had been their equivalent of the Fountain of Youth - had been cancelled due to the anticipated heavy rain storms.  So they ran today and I had several picks.  I got two wins at Gulfstream and then had two graded wins out west.  Good racing, but wishing I'd had a couple more winners on the day.

With the calendar turning to March on Friday I debated about (a) closing out the February racing totals with last Sunday, or (b) closing them out after the Thursday card; or (c) as I eventually opted, to run the February Totals / Three Month Totals following the weekend's racing.  The win percentage was "good" but a little down from the first two months and I definitely lost money for the month.  But still through three months I have to be pleased with the win percentage and a solid $1.90 ROI.

Social Media this week......

Speaking of the Florida Derby, one couple who have gone every year after the first time we went have been Jeff & Gina Nelson.  Jeff was the assistant principal at Cypress Bay that I worked very closely with on many projects, most especially graduations.  And we became close friends.  While teaching there his two kids, Coleman and Chloe went through high school and I got to know them both.  Chloe is the sweetest and most adorable girl, now a noted country DJ.  So last year after the Derby I messaged her that she should come to the Derby.  And she seemed excited about that.  As it works out this year my original ten tickets, one is for Keith so I have an odd ticket.  I messaged her and told her to come and she very excitedly agreed to come.  I'm sure it makes her Mom & Dad glad she'll come for the weekend, but I'll also look forward catching up with her.

I had to share my success at the races with my most fav gal-pal Kimmy and she messaged me right back.

I used to look forward to nearly every Saturday evening chatting with CBS weekend anchor and social media gal-pal Karli Barnett.  We became, I thought "good friends" as we often exchanged messages and she followed our travels closely.  She's not been on with the live chats as often, and when she is on they are rarely on the same day and/or the same time.  So it's been several weeks since I've "talked" with her.  As we were having dinner at the Yardhouse after the races Saturday I saw on my phone that she was live so I reached out to her and she replied back to me.  Ahhhhh Karli :)

I twice interacted with Lauren Pastrana this week, but no notable messaging/conversations this week :)

Lastly, WPLG Channel 10 morning anchor Jacey, another one of "my girls" on social media" posted pics of her with straight and curly hair and asked for opinions.  So I chimed in :)