February 7 - 11
With an early puck drop for the Florida Panthers on Saturday....no big races other than a couple at Tampa....and my daughter visiting, I opted to stay home at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" for the racing on Saturday. I had a pretty good week for win percentages from start to finish. Here's how the week played out! On Wednesday I had six races where I had horses I liked enough to bet. I ran third on 7/5 in the opener and 2nd at 5/2 in the third. In the fifth, a non-winners of two lifetime turf sprint, Vamos Viejo was strictly a "class play" for me after he'd run for a $50K tag twice and today was a $35K price tag. Was away last - wow - moved up to fourth but was blocked into the stretch. Found a seam, burst through and was much the best once clear. Came right back in Race 5, a two-turn claiming event on the all-weather. I noted in my analysis that you couldn't have a lot of confidence in any of these, but despite having "issues" like all the others I did think Wicked Mercury off the layoff for Woodbine-based Martin Drexler had enough positive for a minimum play. Pressed the leader to the stretch, got a narrow advantage and held off the closer in deep stretch for the win.
And I made it three in a row in Race 7, a six furlong claiming sprint. Long ago the "best" book of my "undergraduate" studies of handicapping, the author used the phrase to "open the window" if you could find two excuses to draw a line through a race. Avant Glory was just that kind of play. The two running lines, both from here, that I though were a picture of what he'd do today were both big efforts with a 91 and an 89 Beyer figure. I tripled the bet and best of all, he was NOT the favorite. Right to the front, outrunning the 7/5 favorite and opened up into the lane. Was getting leg weary in deep stretch but was still clear to the wire. The payoff netted me over $50 to insure a winning day! Helped soften the blow of running 2nd at 3/5 with my "best" of the day in the 8th, the final bet of the day.
Thursday brought just a single winner to the ledger. In the first bet of the day, Race 2, it was a mile and a half on the turf and Todd Pletcher had two in the field but I liked Sgt. Pepper. Sat last of the small group through pedestrian fractions. At the top of the stretch Irad Ortiz swung him into the clear, asked for his kick and he blew by to be up in the shadow of the wire! Only had two other bets (and a scratch) which finished fifth at 2/1 and a troubled third at 3/5.
Friday I had seven races with bets on a nine-race card. And in spite of only winning two of the bets I came out ahead thanks to my "BEST" of the day being a daylight winner as the second choice at post time. Beanpot went wire-to-wire in the fifth, a five furlong turf sprint that had the FanDuel analysts discouraging his chances because the impressive winner he'd run second two last time out had not produced on Wednesday. BUT that horse was the 3/5 favorite, my "best" of the day and had a nightmare trip when finishing 3rd. I thought they were WAY off in the comments. Tripled the bet and cashed for $30. In the seventh, a one-turn mile entry level allowance for 3yo all the "experts" liked the Chad Brown runner. I took Todd Pletcher's Gun Song. Pressed the pace to the stretch under Johnny V and took off as a tons-the-best winner allowing me to collect over $50.
Saturday: Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
You could not have asked for a better start to the Saturday card as I played from the Sunrise Simulcast Center. In the Aqueduct opener Eliminate trailed the maiden special field into the turn, then blew by as an easy winner. I had made R2 at the "Big A" an "optional bet" depending on the wagering. Whenlovetakesover was heavily played in the double pool so I went in. Was off last - WOW - but rallied on the turn and blew by for the second win in a row. The second at Gulfstream was a MSW for 3yo and I liked Oscar's World who had run two sharp races when third and second. Was being pounded on the board so I upped the wager. Pressed a 50/1 to the far turn, took control and drew off - three in a row. The third at Aqueduct I liked the entry and the "other" part of the entry went wire to wire - make it four. Then at Tampa, Todd Pletcher's Heartland was easily best in a MSW for 3yo around two turns. FIVE STRAIGHT! My oldest son Jeff was at the track with some friends and sent out a group text, "Pops is on FIRE!" :)
My streak came to a halt when Northshore Drive, in Gulfstream's third was in the closest of photos - I honestly thought I'd won, but I was "OK" with allowing some other bettors to cash on their bets LOL. I scored again at Aqueduct and To a T is a classic example of "it's all about the match up" because in this claiming event she entered with a 35/4-10-5 lifetime record. To be fair, and the reason I bet here, was she'd run competitively against much better. I picked her,But was off slowly, wow. Moved up to third quickly then swooped by as easily best.
I ran second twice and then third before Desert Wolf was much the best in Oaklawn's second. It was another hour and a half before I scored again, but I also had six "PASS" races and six bets over that span (2nd at 4/5, 6th at 2/5 with the "BEST" of the day (WOW); 6th at 8/5; second at 4/5; third at 2/1 and fourth at even money).
I had five "LIVE" bets left before we were heading out to the hockey game and three of them were featured events. At Aqueduct in the Heavenly Prize, Saddle Up Jessie looked like the most legitimate favorite on the card, which is why she was the DRF BEST of the day. Went right to the front and even when the field began to come to her the announcer commented "under a tight and confident hold." Let loose at the top of the lane, she was GONE.
Last winter, Sibelius had won the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream in January then shipped to Tampa to win the listed Pelican Stakes. I thought it was awfully ambitious but the connections sent him to Dubai to run in the Group 1 $2 Million Golden Shaheen. But HE WON. Lost three races upon returning state-side, but ran competitively. Given time off he won the Gr 3 Mr. Prospector in January and here he was in the Pelican. Uh oh. But I was glad the FanDuel analysts and track analysts all thought he wasn't as good. I did and was glad to hear the analysts note right before post time that he felt the horse was near the top of his game. Tracked in the clear four wide, surged to the front and drove to the wire. To be fair and kudos to the rider, the favorite opted to stay inside and had all kind of traffic problems when finishing second. Too bad - so sad...but I cashed MY ticket! Won at Oaklawn when Galerio tracked the pace and drove to the wire. And finally in the ninth at Tampa Oversubscribed was far back, rallied weaving his way through traffic, dove down late, surged.....PHOTO finish. Long, long look and I went back and forth about if I'd won or not. DEAD HEAT. Better than having a losing ticket :)
At the hockey game we met up with my buddy Enzo and his sons & sister-in-law and watched as the 'Cats played a top notch Colorado Avalanche squad. We played SO SO well and pounded them 4-0. Came home to watch the final four races on my selection sheet. In the Gr 3 Sam F. Davis, the prep for the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Todd Pletcher had scratched Agate Road out of the Grade 3 Kitten's Joy ON THE TURF to run here. Interesting. He was my pick. WAY back early, he weaved his way through traffic but couldn't catch the front runner, second best. In Oaklawn's 9th - a second level allowance sprint - and Tapatio Leo looked best to me. Right to the front and long gone.
Missed at Tampa when second with a "prime time" play on the turf before closing out the day when Valentine Candy won his third sprint stakes for 3yo at Oaklawn in their featured Ozark Stakes. I finished the day 13-for-26, an EXCELLENT 50% win average. For the day I lost a little over $8 - and I was ok with that considering I'd had two "BIG" bets (for a combined $50) and lost them both.
Super Bowl Sunday saw me with five bets at Gulfstream, and one race at Santa Anita I was "interested" in. I was nowhere to be found with my first two plays at Gulfstream, both dismal sixth place finishes before American Rockette scored. The Bill Mott filly had won her Saratoga debut, then missed in three straight stakes, while running competitively. BUT.....those were back in 2022, some fourteen months ago. I liked that she was in allowance company (protected) for her first non-stakes try. After breaking alertly she was shuffled to the back of the back approaching the far turn. But swooped up in hand, got to the front and drove by to win going away. The 2/1 price allowed me to cash for $15 and suddenly I'm just a little behind.
I ran 6th at 5/2 after two "PASS" races, then watched a Pletcher first timer run a dismal sixth (again) at 5/2; and then had two more "PASS" races to bring me to the fifth and final bet of the day in South Florida.....and despite it being a Sunday card, it was a stakes event, the Ladies' Turf Sprint. Trainer Brian Lynch is having a stellar meet, continuing to hit at well over 30% after two and a half months into the meet. He'd seen his Stone Silent run big numbers and sent her to the Abundtia Stakes here a month ago. She won at 4/1, decisively. Both the second and fourth place finishers were back but she just looked way too good to me. Pressed the pace to the top of the lane and took off as a decisive winner again - AND I'd upped the bet :)
The 6th at Santa Anita was a two-turn mile, entry level allowance for 3yo that featured the second start for Bob Baffert's highly regarded Maymun. The $900K colt, owned by long time clients Zedan Stables had whistled his sprint debut in nothing more than a public workout. His sales price, his debut and the fact that Baffert showed a 59% win rate with maiden sprint winners stretching out to a mile in their second start. He was 1/9 until minutes before post time. Only five in the field, including Maymun's stablemate who was the 4/1 second choice. The prohibitive 1/5 favorite easily cleared early, bore out on the first turn but was in hand through an opening half mile in :48 and change with the stable mate tracking him. Jockey Flavian Prat on the "other Baffert and suddenly the two were on even terms through the far turn. Juan Hernandez was now asking Maymun to ride but the other colt got a head in front at the furlong pole and I thought Maymun was done - as more than 90% of all thoroughbreds are when headed in the lane. But colt showed his talent and class as he re-rallied and forged to the wire a nose in front in one of the most exciting races of the weekend. Made even more so by the fact that I'd made a $25 WIN bet on him! And what's ironic is that by betting $25 I cashed for $32.50 - a profit of $7.50 (obviously). For the day I had collectively wagered $60 and cashed for $67.50. Had I not bet I would have lost for the day. Had I wagered the "usual prime time" I'd have lost $2.50 for the day. But instead my totals were $65 bet / $67.50 WINNINGS :)
Social Media this week.....
Lauren Pastrana had liked my birthday wishes last weekend when she'd celebrated her big day, but as it turned out her ACTUAL birthday was the first of the week. And when I went on her personal - not professional page - to wish her a Happy Birthday I saw she was doing a fund raiser for a children's hospital. I contributed and then commented how much I enjoyed her being my "social media gal pal." Got a thank you for the donation and she liked my compliment. Ironically I'd told myself that I'd be a more "normal" viewer and not reach out to her until late in the week if at all, but Tuesday she had on a cute top with a collar, which is unusual for her outfits. I commented how cute she looked and noted she didn't look any older. Note that was posted at 5:04pm right after she'd come on the air. At 5:08pm she not only liked the picture and post but wrote me back :) That night at the Panthers game Kim and I were one of the Twitter pics they showed on the big scoreboard - I took a photo and knowing that Lauren is also a 'Cats fan, sent it to her noting that only "VIP's" get on the jumbotron. She liked that posting :) Saturday morning I saw a commercial while watching gal-pal Teri Hornstein do the weekend news about Lauren's upcoming special assignment on the "Only Fans" adult website. I took a pic and shot her a comment to which she replied back. And finally - it was a big week for my interactions with Ms. Pastrana! - the CBS-Miami team posted a "who do you like in the Super Bowl" and I noted that Lauren liked the Kansas City Chiefs, who I did as well. She liked that we were on the same page there.
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