Week 1: December 1 - 4
Well, do you want the good news or the bad news first? We will start with the good news, "the glass is half full" is my take on life and my racing hobby :) On the first day of the winter racing season, Thursday December 1st I won with BOTH my first two selections :) Saturday, the first day to be ON TRACK and watch live racing again (have been to GP ONCE since the end of last winter's racing season) was a good day - won with 34% of my picks, won with ALL THREE BEST Bets of the day; and won six stakes races. WHOOOO HOOOO! OK, hit me with the bad news. Well, after those first two wins on Thursday - absolutely nothing at Gulfstream. Seriously, not a single winner. Shut out on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Disappointing to be on track and not find a single winning horse. But with that said, check out the payouts for this week's racing in Hallandale.....
Yeah, good luck finding winners consistently on those cards. TWENTY-ONE of the 38 winners paid double digits and of those ten were better than 10/1 or better. Ironically on Friday when it was the mo formful, my four picks went off at 5/2, 9/5, 3/1 and 7/2 but in those races that I bet, two of them produced double digit payoffs and in the other two it was the "other" likely winner that scored. What ever. I'm certain that by early April the numbers will balance out. I'll get mine - you'll see. So with that said, let's focus on Saturday......
With a first post in New York at 11:50 - where they had four graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Cigar Mile - my horse was scratched out of the opener. I checked my analysis and saw that I thought the most likely winner was Classic Legacy who was certain to be a short price, but he came from off the pace. In a now reduced-to-four horse field I was certain he'd be a VERY likely winner. Not only put him on the ticket but upped the investment to a double bet. Pressed the leader to the top of the lane and ran away like a short priced favorite should, and right off the bat I'm a winner!
In the Gulfstream opener I had the 7/5 favorite who was cruising loose on the lead to mid-stretch, turned on the video and was about to call out "I'm a winner" when he was passed in the shadow of the wire. Would be the story of the day. Rand in the money in two of the next four and out of the money on the other ones before it was time for the fourth at Aqueduct. Built To Last looked like CLEARLY a horse to avoid. Not only had he already lost NINE times as he entered this $40K maiden event, but trainer Tom Morley was on an 0-for-17 skid. Now I'll admit that partially offsetting this fact is that Morely shares a bed with hottie handicapper for NYRA and "America's Day At The Races" Maggie Wolfendale so he obviously knows something about picking winners :) But what led me to go ahead and make a minimum wager on the horse was he had something none of these other maidens had - he'd crossed the wire first last time out. Then was "disqualified from purse money" - no explanation to be found, but that was a powerful edge. Pressed to the stretch and drew off by nearly double digit lengths. Funny side story.....as they rounded the turn some guy standing next to me says, apparently to me - "It's going to be 8-6......in New York, it's the 8-6. On the wire, in New York, 8 wins with 6 second. Yep, it's an 8-6 all the way." I ignored him as I drew off and the 8 faded. I had to.....in mid-stretch I started snapping my fingers saying, "Come on with the 6 - yes, yes" Had to do it :) Quack quack.
Missed at Laurel before it was time for the first stakes event on my selection sheet. At Tampa Bay Downs today they had a duo of two-year-old stakes, meant to be the kickoff to the Road to the Oaks and Derby. The Sandpiper Stakes was Race 3 for juvenile fillies going seven panels. My top choice was Dorth Vader who was invading from Gulfstream. She'd run sharply when third behind Atomically in the Florida Sire Stakes who went on to run in the Breeders' Cup. Then came back to win the Juvenile Filly Sprint at Gulfstream; moved forward each start on the Beyer scale AND a sharp 5th best of 163 workout. Somehow the crowd let her go off as the second choice at nearly 2/1 odds. Swept by and drove off to be easily best and I cashed for nearly $45.
Had a hard time believing I ran third as the 4/5 favorite at Gulfstream, but my pick - like so many of my picks - broke last. And was an outrun fourth at Aqueduct before it was time for the fourth at Tampa. I had written in my analysis that I liked Astonishing Anabel, and would like her even more if Awesome Pic ran well in the Sandpiper. I had made bets for my next three races and was sitting in the paddock awaiting for the start of the race. I had forgotten to check how Awesome Pic ran in the Sandpiper, so I looked it up - SECOND! So I pulled out my tickets, trying to remember if I'd upped the bet. UH OH - NO TICKET FOR TAMPA! I was watching the video on my phone and they were approaching the gate. No time to get to the windows and give my money to the twins (who I'd had several conversations with throughout the day), so I quickly opened up my Xpressbet app and made the bet. Swooped by in hand and won by daylight. SMART MOVE Mr. Mark :)
Now it was time for the first "BEST BET of the Day" race - the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct for 2yo fillies who had Kentucky Oaks dreams. Julia Shining had been a headline story online and was the 3/5 favorite in the program. What is so amazing about that is she'd been out ONCE - winning a MSW going 7f. Today she would face winners, graded stakes company for the first time. Go two turns for the first time, AND go nine furlongs for the first time. AND she's the 3/5 chalk? Somebody must know something about this Todd Pletcher filly. Left the gate as the 1/2 choice and from mid-way down the backstretch on I was anxious. Jockey Luis Saez was pushing her from the five furlong marker on, and that is NEVER good if the rider is asking that far out from the wire. Finally on the turn the filly seemed to "get it" and she accelerated to begin getting close to the leaders. But to stay out of trouble Saez took her outside - fanned at least eight wide she lost a lot of ground and seemed to flatten out for a 16th of a mile. Then midway between the furlong pole and the 16th pole she kicked into another gear and nailed the leaders in the shadow of the wire in one of the most exciting races of the day. WHOOOO HOOOO.
Ran third as the 9/5 favorite at the Fair Grounds and 3rd as the 6/5 favorite at Aqueduct. From about mid-day on I kept noticing that my post times (or the Laurel post times) were off for the Maryland races. I looked up at the monitor and they were approaching the gate for the 6th which I had as not being for another half hour. Pulled my phone out to make the bet like I did at Tampa, then looked at my horse sitting at 9/2 and thought, hmmmm, maybe not a good bet? Wavered back and forth, finally opting NOT to bet. Ran fifth, never a threat. ANOTHER good decision! Third at Tampa, a dismal 8th in the Gr 3 Go For Wand at Aqueduct and fourth at the Fair Grounds. The seventh at Gulfstream was on the turf, an entry level allowance-optional claiming and MY horse Carrothers was entered. He's never run well on the turf and I wondered why he was entered here. The trainer sent out a video that he had been training really well. But when listed at 12/1 and even with all the owners chipping in he was never lower than 6/1 I opted NOT to bet. Bet on the Todd Pletcher 2/1 favorite. Both were well beaten. The 7th at Laurel was the Maryland Juvenile Filly and I thought either Chickieness would win at a fair price or she had had too many races and wouldn't fire her best shot. Evenly to be fourth. Got back in the WIN column with the 7th at Tampa in a MSW sprint with Opus Forty Two. The barn a big 32% with turf-to-dirt moves, loved the outside draw and that on debut she'd run 2nd against colts. Drew off handily to score at 9/5.....cashed for almost $30 on my sixth winner of the day.
It was now time for my "BEST Bet of the Day" at Laurel with the Maryland Juvenile going seven furlongs. Post Time came from off the pace in early October to blow by his rivals at first asking. Them faced allowance foes. Again came from off the pace and ran away to an even more impressive score with a field best 84 Beyer and at today's seven furlong distance. On paper looked WAY too good for these. Drew the #1 hole and when the gates opened, was shuffled back to last. WOW. And to the far turn, no real progress. Sigh......then suddenly, the rider flicked his wrists and the response was immediate. From last to second in an eye-catching WOW move (a lot like Arazi from years gone by, and if you're a REAL racing fan you'll know what I mean!). Collared the co-even money favorite who'd been loose on an easy lead. Looked like a duel through the lane was about to happen until you looked closely and my jockey STILL sat motionless - even looked over his shoulder to see if there was a threat. How about the one right off your flank. Drew off EASILY in the W-O-W performance of the day for sure.
Missed on the next two before it was time for the co-feature at Tampa, the Inaugural Stakes for 2yo colts. I R-E-A-L-L-Y liked Super Chow in here. Been out four times and won three of them, oh. The lone loss, when shipping from Gulfstream to run 3rd in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, OH. And as an added bonus, hottie jockey Chantal Sutherland was on board - oh my. Immediately was clear by four or five. Saw the lead shrink to a length or less entering the stretch until Chantal asked for him to finish it off and he won by a clear margin as my THIRD "BEST Bet of the Day" investment. I watched Release McCracken duel through the turn and the stretch to just be up in time in a Fair Grounds 2yo allowance, only to have an objection lodged. NO. He's the official winner, then watched my 6/5 favorite in the Gulfstream finale be a photo-finish 2nd. My last race of the day wasn't for another 45 minutes so I headed for home. When I checked the replays, Oeuvre was a daylight winner at the Fair Grounds in their featured Pan Zareta Stakes and I cashed for over $40 to close out the day with ten wins!
Racing moves to a five-day-a-week schedule next week, AND I'll be heading to Europe to take my niece Khloe on a Rhine River Christmas cruise from the 9th through the 20th. Nearly certain I'll be handicapping Wed-thru-Sat, including the "Louisiana Champions Day" card at the Fair Grounds for Saturday. Not certain what I'll do about racing the following week. Stay tuned!
Saturday Dec 3 Highlights
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Social Media This Week
Heard from "my girl" Kimmy a couple times this week. First, it was her birthday and she was appreciative of my message. We have a special relationship for sure. Second she reached out to me and let me know how excited she was to tell me she was expecting again. So happy for her - if anyone deserves happiness it's this gal and those close to her.
I reached out to "my CBS-gal pal" Lauren Pastrana. Note the time stamps. AND that she "knows me" and how I travel was cool as well.
Finally, our Florida Panthers have been "underwhelming" through the first quarter of the season. Last year, Panther girl Katie Gaus put her hair up in a ponytail and we played lights out nearly every time she did so. Was disappointed when Katie-girl left for a better position with the Colorado Avalanche, but new Panther-girl Katie Engleson is good so far. Well, this week on the road trip after an overtime loss - where we most certainly should have won and a dismal performance against Calgary, new Katie-girl put HER hair in a pony......we dominated two straight games 5-1 in each. LOVE the new pony Katie - and I told her so :)
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