March 23 - 27
It's the next-to-last week of the Championship Meet, and it's so hard for me to believe that it's already here as it seems like just the other day Keith and I were heading out full of excitement for Opening Day in early December. To add to the "sadness" of the winding down of my most favorite time of the racing year is that we will be out of town next weekend so Louisiana Derby Day Saturday was to be the final day that we'd be on track live for racing this winter season. It was a most, MOST interesting week for me and by the end of the day Sunday I had a big smile on my face, shook my head and thought to myself, "THIS is why I love handicapping the races!" Wednesday was another, what's become common place shortened eight-race card. And I've begun to realize that my success rate on the Tapeta is not nearly what it is on the turf and "real dirt." So I'm much more selective about betting the races. I had only three races with selections today and started the week off with a win, ironically ON the new synthetic track. Queen Calypso looked in peak form and was the better of the two uncoupled entry mates. Cleared the field early and went wire to wire.
Missed on the other two when 7th at 3/1 and then a disappointing 3rd at 4/5. Thursday there were nine races, and even though there were only two on the all-weather I could only find three selections worthy of a play again. I was second in the opener at even money and then fifth at even money in Race 5. Passed races 6-7-and 8 before getting a nice win in the finale. The ninth was a non-winners of three lifetime event going a mile on the turf course. The last race run by Parkland was awful, but fur of his previous six tries showed him with Beyer figures that would win for fun. Looked to sit the perfect trip, and he did just off the pace until they approached the far turn. Miguel Vasquez asked him to run and he blew by and ran away. The best part, went off at a generous 3/1 so I cashed for over $40 and I'm a winner for the day!
Friday, as the day kicked off I was looking at four selections from a full ten race card. But, in what has become MOST annoying to me, there were some showers on Thursday evening so the turf races came off the grass and were moved to the all-weather to promote the new company line "we don't lose hardly any runners when we come off the turf now." But that is not really the case. And - to continue my rant - one of the best things I used to like about Gulfstream is that unlike Calder management, we stayed on the turf, even when it was actually raining! Now, the slightest about of moisture and it's immediately moved to the all-weather. Here's an interesting statistic......through Saturday March 26 (Day 90 of the meet).......there have been 303 races run on the main track on dirt; there have been 170 races run over the turf course; and there have been 322 races run on the new Tapeta surface. Now I get it that a percentage of those were carded for the turf, but as a handicapper where it's difficult enough to find the winner (much less make money), to have had more races over the new synthetic that the other two is disconcerting. Be that as it may, I lost one of the four picks I had on Friday because the race went from grass to Tapeta so I was left with three selections. Ran fourth as the 9/5 favorite with the first pick in Race 3. Then nothing until Race 8 when Unprecedented won, ironically (again) on the all-weather in a starter allowance dash. I had mixed feelings as he'd won two in a row, the last at this same level, distance and over this track so you'd think they'd want to move him up. But I stuck with him because he looked to get THE MOST ideal of trips. Right to the front and never looked back at a more than fair 2/1 price.
In the finale it was moved off the turf to a mile and a sixteenth again to the synthetic. I considered not playing the race but when Ron Nicoletti and Acacia Clement BOTH pointed out that Champagne Lady looked like a very likely winner I stuck with the Shug McGaughey filly in this entry level spot. Press the pace while three wide into the turn, took over willingly and drew clear. And the best part - she too was a "fair" price, paying $7.60 so I cashed for nearly $40.
So, heading into the weekend, while I'd had limited plays I'd gone 4-for-9 and had cashed for a profit of nearly $30. It is what it is - you just have to be patient each day because there are always going to be more races tomorrow!
Saturday: Louisiana Derby Day
What a day of racing! It was Dubai World Cup Day, New York Claiming Championship Day, Texas Champions Day, and I had picks from both Gulfstream and Santa Anita. The first bet of the day from Dubai was at 8:30 in the morning and the last bet from Sam Houston Park was at 11:30 pm! YOWZA! Forthy-one race selections in all over a span of 15 hours! Was I tired at the end - yes indeed! But it was a great day. The two races I liked on Dubai World Cup night were both the odds-on favorite and looked easily to be winners and to pad my stats. But in the $1 Million Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup, unbeaten Monobo took the lead into the lane at 1-2 odds, passing the leader but saw that one come back and nail him in the final strides to finish 2nd. Then in the big one, the $12 Million Dubai World Cup, Life Is Good was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite...went right to the front, opened up a daylight lead into the lane and looked gone, before Bob Baffert's Country Grammer ran by him at 9/1 and he finished a tiring fourth. NOT the way I saw the day starting. But now that I was at the track the first bet of the day came at the Fair Grounds in the opener on their big card. It was a Maiden Special for 3yo fillies and SEVEN of the EIGHT were first time starters! An "obvious" pass right? But no, Steve Asmussen's Bella Rebella had fired a best-of-110 bullet work and I love that angle. Right to the front and went wire to wire paying $6.00 and I'd gotten back to nearly even on the day suddenly (thanks in part to the Xpressbet money-back deal on the Dubai races). Ok, here we go! Missed on two then in the second at Aqueduct in the Belle Gallantry Stakes going seven furlongs Witch Hunter looked imposing. I thought the 1/2 favorite in the opener in NY was far more likely to win and he ran fourth, but 'Witch not only had the best numbers and had beaten better, but the DRF's Mike Beer who NEVER likes the favorite, not only put her on top but made her the BEST Bet of the Day. Tracked the pace 3-wide into the far turn then in a blink of an eye blew by and was multiple lengths clear. Impressive!
Missed the next two before it was time for the next at Aqueduct, the Kelly Kip Stakes. The requirement for this starter event was to have run for $12.5K or less. On the page Dark Money showed not one but TWO wins over $25K rivals....oh. Mid-pack to the turn, swept to the front and looked ready to pull away like Witch Hunter but the competition wouldn't make it that easy. He held them safe but was driving all the way to the wire for the score. And right back at Gulfstream when Starlite Walker went right to the front and looked long gone before a closer came flying to make it "interesting" but never in doubt.
Missed at both Aqueduct and the Fair Grounds before the fifth at Aqueduct was MY "best" of the day on the Claiming Championship Day. After spending the first seven starts of his career on the turf with only a maiden win to show for it, trainer Mike Maker was probably looking to give up on him when he entered dropped him into a $15K nw2L going a one-turn mile. He absolutely walked with it. Maybe we have something here the connections thought - up into a rich $50K starter at the same mile trip. Walked with it again with another new Beyer top. Up to allowance - walked with it again at a mile. Tried stakes company and was fourth, then was over his head in back-to-back graded stakes. Off for five months he was 2nd in a listed stakes event and now into this starter spot. AND at his favorite one-turn mile trip. Tracked in third to the turn, blew by and was a runaway winner! Three wins on the NY card!
Ran second and third and off the board before it was time for the opener at Santa Anita. I wrote in my analysis that probably the "best bet" here was to play an early double using both the top two here and the top three in the second. Sure enough I ran 1-2 with my WIN bet running second. As I went to make the next bet with "my girl" Karen (one of the twins) I told her, "The #1 is a MORTAL LOCK at Santa Anita, know why?" She smile and asked why that was, and I replied, because I was going to win the Daily Double and lose money....LOL. But I upped the win bet and watched as Bob Baffert's first time starter floated up to be the second choice on the board before running away at 7/5. So I played a $2 double at $12, a WIN bet at $5 in the opener, and a $10 WIN bet in the second. Cashed on the double for $9.60 and the 2nd for $24. Do the math.... bet $27, collect $33.60! WHOOO HOOO, I'm so clever!
In the seventh at the Fair Grounds it was another MSW event. Much like the Santa Anita races I thought the top two were hard to separate and I decided to go for a bit of a price with a first time starter, but he scratched. The likely favorite was being pounded at the windows so I took Marsalis AND upped the bet to a double investment. Dueled on the front end into the lane and I thought maybe he'd give way but instead opened up and drew off like a good thing!
The eighth at Aqueduct was the Stud Muffin Stakes going a marathon mile and three-eighths. I thought the field was fairly evenly matched and next to none of them had been the difference. Blewitt was my choice and over his last four races he'd gone a mile and eighth three times and won comfortably in all three. The other was a one-turn mile and he'd lost. So the elongated two turns didn't seem like it would be a problem. Was in range to the far turn, and like all the other NY winners, swept up on the turn, opened up in the lane and drew clear! I'm having a VERY good day in New York.
Louisiana Derby Day Highlights: Part 1
Minutes after cashing in New York it was time for the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic at the Fair Grounds for older handicap runners going nine furlongs. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott sent out my top pick, Olympiad who was a "prime time" investment for me. He'd made his 2022 debut here at Gulfstream and had won in allowance company with the look of a future graded stakes winner. Came back to win the Grade 3 Mineshaft here a month ago (as my top pick) in the prep for this. Saw no reason he wouldn't be as good or better today. Tracked the front runner to the top of the stretch then drew off as tons the best with my big-time play on board. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
What came next was clearly, CLEARLY the highlight of the week. Two weeks ago when Keith and I were at Gulfstream and the rains had hit, he'd purchased seats inside the Silks simulcast center for us, and since then that's been the deal.....I get the grandstand seats, he gets the A/C indoor seats. We were sitting there after I made my bet for the Caixa Electronica Stakes at Aqueduct and the horses were warming up on the track when I said to him, "See the next at Aqueduct....if I'm right and win here, I'm going to have a VERY good day!" Why he asked, "because it's my UPSET Special and I'm taking a pretty big swing (for me) here." He looked up and said, wow - he's 5/1. Whistling Birds was the pick and I thought he had a chance to either go wire to wire or sit an up-close trip and win. The horses were getting the most play had finished in a 3-way photo last time out, and I like in those circumstances to go with a "new shooter." 'Birds was outrun to the front so he tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, then surged to the front. Two others came at him, one up the rail the other down the middle of the track but neither could get to him. And when the final odds flashed up he had been 6/1 - WHOOO HOOO! The payoff was $14 and with my TRIPLE investment I cashed for over $100!
No sooner had the prices been posted then they were off and running in the fourth at Santa Anita. I had mixed feelings about likely favorite Coalinga Road in this entry level allowance. What carried the day was (a) his last SEVEN Beyers would beat 43 of the 44 Beyers on the page - WOW, and (b) he'd worked not one, not two, but three bullets for today - WOW Squared! Conversely, he'd failed at this entry level allowance level in four straight tries, oh. Tracked the leaders into the stretch, edged to the front, dueled, and held on narrowly. One last live bet and it was THE BIG ONE for the day. Unbeaten, two-year-old juvenile filly champion Echo Zulu was making her 3yo debut in the mile and a sixteenth, Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. I thought she was a very likely winner, but I will admit that I thought it at the least "interesting" that no prep race since the Breeders' Cup just right into a two-turn Gr 2 event. She was my BET of the Day! Right to the front as expected and coasting into the stretch on a daylight lead. Looking good, but when she turned for home there was no acceleration to the wire. I had that uneasy feeling, and then a challenger came to her and the battled head up and head down to the wire. But the champ is the champ and she was all heart getting her nose down on the wire. WHEW!
We headed for home and I had a much, MUCH thicker bankroll in my pocket. NOT just because of today, but when we first arrived I cashed my remaining tickets from last week, and I collected over $100 AFTER I had made my first bets. Karen asked if I wanted a $100 bill and I said yes, that I would try to avoid using it and I never touched it :)))) We headed for home and I still had four bets at Santa Anita and all my picks from the evening races at Sam Houston Park. I ran second in FOUR consecutive races to kick off the night-time/online picks. At 1/1, 2/1, 5/2, and a big 6/1. Just one of those would have been nice. I won the finale at Santa Anita in my most-favorite kind of race, a turf sprint down the hillside course in Arcadia when Delmona scored at 6/5. And at Sam Houston I went 3-for-5 with all of the wins being in stakes races, including the BEST Bet of the Night there with Mr. Money Bags.
For the log day, my final numbers were: 41 Selections / 17 WINS (41%) with an ROI of $2.02!
Louisiana Derby Day Highlights: Part 2
As we walked to the car leaving Gulfstream I was saying to Keith how I'm often in the position I found myself in then.....had a good day live at the races, how would the late night bets go - AND how would tomorrow's bets go? Hard to separate a great DAY at the track when the late online plays don't live up to the day itself and/or Sunday isn't as good. But the online bets had been good for me. How would Sunday go? I had five races on the ten race card. In Race 2 I liked Ankara for Todd Pletcher. Normally, at any other track at any other time of the year I'd NEVER bet this horse. Went off at 15/1 in MSW company and didn't run a step, now today he PLUNGES to the basement $12.5K maiden claiming level. YIKES. But Mr. Todd likes to get the "W" if he's going to lose a horse via the claim. He was the 1/2 favorite but had to work hard to get the win - but win he did! Passed the third then I thought Bill Mott's second time starter Wonka, on the turf, would be a handy winner if he ran back to his sharp debut. Drew off in hand through the lane, and I'm 2-for-2. Even if I don't cash again, it's a 40% day and I'm very good with that I thought.
Passed the fifth and in the sixth we were on the turf in an entry level allowance. I thought Eamonn looked like a winner with a good late kick in a race that projected to have sufficient front runners. But the trainer was just 5-for-83 at the meet. Hmmmm. I'll play but for the minimum. Trailed to the far turn, then took off, circling the field and running away late as easily best!
Oh, this day is turning out pretty good! Passed the seventh and then we were back on the turf for the eighth in an entry level allowance. Tango Tango Tango was coming off the layoff, but if you overlooked that he was tons the best with his resume showing stakes tries AND a stakes win to break his maiden! He was third last into the far turn, began picking off horses on the turn and was three across with the other two on the lead with a furlong to go. Edged clear late at 5/2 - WOW!
Ok, now I'm very happy with the way today has gone regardless of how my final bet of the week goes, but this was my "best bet" of the day. Could I even think about ending the week five-for-five? Looking at the field for the ninth, a starter optional claiming sprint for 3yo going six furlongs, I wrote ".....the only thing standing between me and the winner's circle with Yes I'm A Beast is if someone tries to run with the front runner and softens him up....." but based on the pace numbers he'd put up, he looked to be long gone on an easy lead. Indeed, right to the front and took token pressure into the lane, but when Saez let him go it was all over.
WOW - who would have thought off the big day Saturday I'd have an even bigger day today. And here's where I was smiling to my self (see the intro paragraph above!). I'd spent many hours handicapping the five tracks for Saturday.....bet for over 15 hours.....won seventeen races, and a sharp 41% of the bets. And came out less than $10 ahead - but I WAS ahead. Today, took me about 45 minutes to handicap the card....had only five bets....watched less than two hours of racing....and won TEN TIMES the profit as all day Saturday!!! Gotta love the racing game! And my totals for the week - I am having a good week!
Just because I notice these kinds of things.....
Social Media......
Last Thursday, weekend anchor Karli Barnett was on the anchor desk and I reached out to her and got a cut GIF back :)
And then she was right back on the desk again on Monday, so I reached out again....
By mid-week, regular anchor gal-pal Lauren Pastrana was back from vacation. I've followed her since she began as a morning beat reporter and we've been FB & Twitter friends for a long time.
Friday as I watched the "Gulfstream Today" show I so enjoyed the interaction between Ron Nicoletti and "our girl" Acacia Courtney-Clement. Maybe I'm just getting old, but I miss the "good old days" when it was just the two of them with Jason Blewitt EVERY day. Nothing personal about the new personalities, but these guys are the best. So I reached out to them both and told them so, and got nice replies back.
Finally, while at the races on Saturday Acacia had a nice-priced winner. I immediately reached out to her and congratulated her on the pick....and she replied right back :)
