It was a good week of racing that started off with stakes action on Wednesday, yes on Wednesday, and included not one....not two....but three BIG BET WINS on Saturday from the Sunrise Simulcast Center. And at the end of the week, I had hit on better than 40% of my selections and collected a clear profit. Here's how the week played out......
Wednesday February 10
Today was Premier Championship Day at Delta Downs. I was surprised when I read that earlier in the week because typically the three smaller tracks in Louisiana - Evangeline, Louisiana Downs, and Delta Downs each have a La-bred statebred card, always on a Saturday night. But this year's Premier Day was today. I have always had pretty good luck at these stakes events and so I handicapped the card. From the ten race card there were four starter stakes with purses between $40K and $50K. The other six were $100K and up stakes events for La-breds. And on the Gulfstream menu there were ten races from which I found five legitimate runners to play. After passing the first two races at Gulfstream, it was post time for the 1st at Delta Downs which went off at 1:55 pm here because they are on Central Time. Closed from far back at 3/2 odds to be third. The third at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming sprint on the turf for three-year-olds. Generic Joe drew mixed feelings from me. He figured on the drop off of a solid debut and a wide draw, excuse-filled second start drew a line through it. But my issue was that 'Joe had been a short priced favorite in BOTH events and had not delivered. With the way he was taking money I decided to up the bet and he wore down the leaders through the lane while under a hand ride from Tyler Gaffalione. Cashed for over $20 to kick-start the week.
The next two bets were both from Louisiana. In their second it was a $40K starter going a mile. As I noted, if you were NOT betting on favorite Kris T. you had to hope that she would not run her race. She boasted a 6/5-1-0 record locally, had rising speed figures and was a six-time winner at the trip. Went off at even money and won for fun.
The fourth from Delta was the first of the stakes. This was the Premier Starlet for three-year-old fillies going a mile. 2020 Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox had unbeaten Australasia who'd blown away the competition by a combined fourteen lengths and change in her first two starts, the second of which was a state-bred stakes like this. When given the cue on the far turn she took off like the rest of the fillies were tied to the rail. As Announcer Pete would say, she made 1/5 look like EEEAAASSSYYYYY MONEY!
Ran 2nd at even money at GP in the fifth before post time for Race 6 rolled around. It was a maiden claiming turf route and like the earlier races I had "mixed feelings" about Eagerly who would almost certainly be a short priced favorite in here. He was a Pletcher runner and a 4yo son of American Pharoah - that's all good. But he had a 6/0-2-2 record today and was dropping out of MSW company today. However, for a rich $50K price and with Irad Ortiz taking the call I was pretty sure that it wasn't a "fire sale," and he was well meant. He was also the DRF Best Bet. Surged four wide through the lane from off the pace.....PHOTO FINISH with my second choice. But I felt fairly comfortable that I'd won, and I did. Cashed on my second Gulfstream win for over $20.
The fifth at Delta was the Premier Prince for 3yo colts and I didn't have a strong opinion. I liked Wise Verdict enough to wager the minimum and he close with a rush five wide to be third at 3/1. Next was the BET of the Day. Grade 1 winner No Parole was making his 2021 debut in the Premier Sprint. The concern was he OBVIOUS has bigger targets down the road, but his best would blow the doors off these guys. His "B" game would win. Would he be ready off a lengthy layoff? Fired a best of 44 bullet in a wicked :58.4 that convinced me. Right to the front and looked comfortable, but a 15/1 runner came to him as they came out of the turn. No Parole seemingly looked him in the eye and said, "C'ya" and was long gone. Didn't pay much, but I was rewarded for my strong opinion.
Didn't like anyone in the Premier Distaff and missed in the Premier Matron when Mr. Al's Gal was 4th at even money. Missed in the last two at Gulfstream and I appeared to be finished for the day when my top choice in the featured Premier Day Championship scratched. But everything I read and the early video analysis indicated that "everybody" thought Underpressure would defend his title today. He was a deep closer and on this small track I was a bit hesitant. But the early money had him at a miniscule price and he was a clear favorite in all the multi-race wagers. I looked at him again and decided to pull the trigger on a triple investment! He was towards the back midway down the back side then glided into contention. Mid-way on the turn he was asked and he circled the field, inhaling all the runners in front of him with the exception of the front runner who was two clear into the short stretch. But all the momentum was with my pick and he blew by to score.
The odds had floated up to 7/5 so I cashed out for over $35 and completed a 6-for-12 day with a nice little profit. Good times!
Thursday February 11
Today I "only" had the Gulfstream races. And much like yesterday I didn't have many firm opinions. In the opener there were the usual questions about the class plunging Exact, especially at a short price. But as I noted in the analysis, most all of the Todd Pletcher class droppers like this WERE almost certainly for sale, but he dropped them way down to get the nearly certain win as he tries for a 17th training title. And Irad Ortiz, looking for a third riding title in a row is almost always all in to ride these kind. So with those two on board and Exact going from a rich $50K spot to this moderate $16K spot, he looked hard to beat. Right to the front....dueled through the opening quarter and that was the end of that as he ran away as the 1-2 choice, allowing me to cash for $15.
Missed in the 2nd at 5/1 then passed three straight. The sixth was the "Story of the Day" - as there's ALWAYS a story with a day of racing! The sixth was a starter allowance sprint going six furlongs. As I scanned down the past performances I stopped and even said out loud, "WHAT?" as I came to the #3 First Investor. She was listed as the prohibitive 7/5 favorite in the program and horses are NEVER listed at odds that low unless they are REALLY obvious. To be fair, First Investor HAD earned a big 83 Beyer in her last, but..... read my analysis:
So I was curious today when watching the Handicapping Show prior to the race day what the two on air analysts, especially Acacia Courtney thought. And she had nearly the same thoughts as I did (you can hear her analysis and comments in the "Week 11 Highlights" video below). Now, while it's true that Stripping did NOT go off at double digit odds, in my opinion, the fact that she blew by and paid almost $7 while being the "obvious" choice and after Acacia had told everyone so, was amazing. I immediately reached out to her via Twitter and complimented her and she responded almost right away, with a smile I'm sure.
Passed the 7th and 8th and ran 2nd at 4/5 in the 9th going a mile and a half on the turf. And passed the finale. So, another fine day with 50% wins and a solid profit!
Friday February 12
Today was another one of "those days" which just proved once again, if you're a real fan of horse racing you HAVE to stick to the plan and wait until the end of the day to really judge what kind of day you are having! At noon I began watching the live stream from Gulfstream to hear what Acacia and Ron Nicoletti had to say about the card. Then the racing began....passed the first and watched my top pick win, ran a dismal 8th at 8/5 in the second; ran an ok 3rd at 6/5 in the next; passed the fourth. Off slowly and third at 8/5 in the fifth; then was clear into the stretch as the 6/5 favorite, but caught on the line by a 10/1 longshot in the sixth. So now it's about 4:15 pm and I've got nothing to show for the day. Found myself, in spite of knowing the axiom I led with, wondering about my day. Then it all turned. The 7th was an entry level allowance for 3yo on the turf. As I wrote, "Todd Pletcher does this all the time." Hyperfocus was going for Pletcher with top rider Irad Ortiz up and was listed in the often way-off DRF morning line at 15/1. He was impressive in debut then tried stakes company and was outrun. That was last summer so Pletcher put him away. That is what he does - brings back lightly raced runners who flashed talent at GP and they win, at a price. FLYING down the middle of the turf course at a big 4/1 price and up in time. The $10.20 payoff meant I'd cash for over $50 and suddenly I'm ahead for the day! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Passed the 8th and then it was the "WOW" race of the week. Chad Brown - who's been awfully quiet and frankly disappointing this winter - was sending out 5yo mare Miss Teheran. Of the combined 105 starts run by the eleven facing her today, NONE of those races were as highly rated as the last two starts by this one. She was a close 4th in Santa Anita's Gr 3 Frankel where she'd been the 5/2 favorite. She'd won two of four starts in Europe but had yet to win in three US starts. Still, the numbers don't lie. She was well back while the leaders put up moderate numbers and then she had some traffic coming out of the turn. At the top of the lane she was still mid-pack in between and behind horses while the leader had cleared the field and had already reached the furlong marker.
You have to watch the replay in the highlights to truly appreciate the WOW explosion and turn of foot as she blew by to win going away in one of the most electrifying races I've seen this winter. I had tripled the play so I cashed for almost $35. Suddenly after spending over five hours with nothing but watching my picks fail to deliver, I'd finished 2-for-5, an excellent 40%, and had the biggest profit of the week. Gotta love racing.
Today was the BIG Day! But as I said on the main page, I quickly lost all six of the Laurel stakes when they cancelled the card due to the freezing rain and frigid temps. The silver lining is that they have been re-scheduled for next Saturday which was a pretty light day on the national scene. Much like Friday, after all the anticipation I spent from noon until 2:30 watching seven races be run when I'd passed the race, and of the ten I bet I won A SINGLE RACE. And to add insult to injury, I had bet the minimum on a 1/5 winner. So my $5 investment returned a whopping $6.75. Not to worry though, I'd re-learned my lesson yesterday and I felt pretty comfortable that while I might not have a "big" day, I felt pretty good that I had some highlight reel races ahead. And the turnaround began in the fourth at the Fair Grounds with a maiden 3yo race. Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Runhappy had been effective going a one-turn mile and today his son, Run Classic was making his second start while stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth off a best-of-the-rest 2nd sprint debut. The $475K sales grad looked good on paper IF he could get the distance. Top rider Florent Geroux took the call and after tracking the pace, he got to the front in mid-stretch and extended his lead to the wire. Paid a nice $5.40 and I had nearly $30 back from the first couple hours of next to nothing. Here's where the many years of playing the races and the lessons learned especially the "stay the course" belief came into play. The next race on the sheet was the co-featured Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint and Leinstar was my BET of the Week! The only thing working against him, I thought was that he'd not run since November. BUT, that had come AS THE FAVORITE in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and he was a sharp third (behind an upset winner who was MY top choice). Prior to that he'd won back-to-back graded turf sprints. Those three races had earned Beyer figures that would beat all 111 combined Beyers earned by the rest of the field! Was he ready? In his last three works, all on the inner course, he'd posted not one but two bullet works. So to me, yes, he was ready. He broke sharply but when two cheap speeds rushed up to engage him leaving him between horses, Luis Saez eased him off the pace. In a brief 5f turf sprint that's a bit of a gamble, but I was thinking at the time I'd rather be in the clear with the best horse than being forced to run between two rivals. Mid-way on the turn Saez put him in high gear and he set sail for the leader. That was the 5/1 second choice and he wasn't about to go down without a fight. But to be fair, Saez knew he didn't have to push Leinstar in an all-out effort. Up in time with a more convincing win than it seemed. My $40 play returned nearly $60.
Missed on the next two before it was time for another two-turn maiden special at the Fair Grounds. In the sixth I liked Sainthood. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was in town for several mounts and he had the call on this Todd Pletcher colt. In his debut he'd run sensational. Hopped at the start and was near the back, hustled into fourth and closed with a rush to be a just-miss second while well clear of the show colt who'd already come back to win! Here Velazquez hustled him to the front from the outside draw and was clear through the far turn. He began using the whip and I could tell that it wasn't to get him to run, it was to try and keep him from drifting wide. He did drift two or three paths wide and lost some ground and momentum. So much so that he got a challenge on the outside, but he resisted. But up the rail came the 5/2 second choice and he got in front by about half a length. That's that, no wait.... Sainthood would not give up and neither would Johnny V. Surging at the wire.....PHOTO FINISH!
OOOHHHHHH so close, but I got the bob, whooooo hooooo. The eighth from GP was next on the list and I was on the fence when analyzing the race because the horse that SHOULD win was Todd Pletcher's Black Magic Woman. But as scintillating as his last out victory had been, at today's one-turn mile trip, that WAS his maiden win. Hmmmm. Still, he probably was good enough to beat these. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione gave him a perfect trip, sitting just off the dueling front two. Glided past into the stretch and opened up by daylight. But my second choice was FLYING up the rail. I could tell immediately this was going to be close. They hit the wire together, PHOTO FINISH. Nearly identical to the just completed race at the Fair Grounds I really wasn't sure. Then the photo came up.....
That's right, WON THEM BOTH - how fortunate am I? Most of the time I'd answer you if asked about watching my weekly highlights, that you'd enjoy them if you like racing. But this week - MANY true highlight reel races that even the casual fan would truly enjoy. These last two exciting finishes among them! Missed the next four before it was time for the first of the stakes events at the Fair Grounds. The first was the Al Stall Memorial on the turf. My pick for the race had scratched and my original plan was to sit the race out. But watching the TVG broadcast hottie handicapper Gabby Gaudet interviewed trainer Al Stall, Jr. who's dad was the person the race was named for. He trained Dalika who'd won the Blushing KD two starts back when loose on the lead, but was a victim of a pace melt down last time to my top choice - who was also back today. But I liked how confident he seemed and that he said she'd really enjoy the rain-softened turf today. So I went back and re-examined the past performances of the runners left in the field and made the call - she'd be my double investment bet. I liked that she had run well on off-going and had not needed the lead to win. She sat a good trip to stretch, moved between runners to the front and edged clear. She paid nearly $6 and I collected almost $30.
Moments later it was time for Gulfstream's co-feature, the Grade 3 Gulfstream Sprint. On paper there was no beating Mischievous Alex and for most people playing the $7 Million Rainbow Pick 6, he was going to be their single. I just wasn't quite as confident as I was on the Leinstar race. First, he'd had his comeback race and had run lights out. Maybe he'd "run his race" and with bigger stakes down the road this would be a "bounce" race. Then, the field was narrowed to just four runners with scratches. Now the real possibility of a lone speed runner made his task more difficult. But still, after listening to all the analysis and re-examining the past performances. He either was clearly the best, or there wasn't a legitimate reason to go against him other than for "value." Things go a LOT easier when the one who might have wired the field hopped in the air at the start and was quickly eliminated from contention. No beating Mischievous Alex as he won for fun. I'd gone prime time and cashed for nearly $30.
I thought it interesting that on TVG they talked about a guy who'd invested $7,900 into the Rainbow Pick 6. Fortunately for him he went "ALL" in the first leg which was won by a 30/1 bomber. And heading into the last he was guaranteed to win because he'd gone "ALL" again. But he'd singled Mischievous Alex. Interesting when the ticket was later posted, he'd gone ALL - all but one - ALL - singled 'Alex - and ALL. As many people commented, that's NOT handicapping. That's having the resources to make a big bet. When he won the finale and cashed for $17,000 he'd made a nice profit, but boy, just that one slip by Alex and he'd have been dead in the water. On to the next race, which was my BEST of the Day on the loaded Fair Grounds card. It was my third BIG TIME play of the day as I really liked unbeaten Maxfield in the Grade 3 Mineshaft. Some questions had to be resolved as he had only been out four times and had yet to be beaten. He wasn't a class or speed figure standout, but I honestly felt like he'd never REALLY been asked for his best. Unbeaten at this mile and a sixteenth trip I thought he had every license to run huge. Tracked the leaders into the far turn, glided up to challenge and when set down in the long Fair Grounds' stretch he lengthened his stride and drew off powerfully. VERY well played Mr. Mark on not one but three BIG bets - not a common thing to do in an "online day" at the races.
I had time for one more race before heading out to the arena for the hockey game. The finale at Gulfstream was a maiden special on the turf and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott - who's barn has been on fire, seemed to have the obvious winner. Floriform showed one of my favorite angles with lightly raced runners on the turf. His first two tries, on the dirt had been good but he'd only earned Beyers of 40 and 55. When sent long on the turf last time out he'd exploded with an 83 Beyer in a just-miss second. Adding to the appeal was that number was the only one on the page that matched the par figure for this class. He was handled patiently on the rail into the stretch, waited for a seam, got a narrow opening and burst through. He truly only ran about 1/16th of a mile then was geared down as a much the best winner. I'd tripled the play and collected $30 for my winning pick.
We left for the hockey game and the two big races were yet to be run at the Fair Grounds - the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra for the fillies and the Grade 2 Risen Star for the colts - both carrying qualifying points for the first weekend in May in Louisville. As Keith and I approached the arena he asked how my day had gone at the races and I told him I was currently hitting 33% with two races left. I added that I thought I had a very good chance in the filly race and had a shot in the last race, so I felt pretty good about winning at least one of them. In between periods I pulled up the races on my phone. In the Rachel Alexandra Brad Cox sent out the very talented Travel Column. She was the even money favorite and tracked the pace into the stretch. Willingly opened up and seemed to have the race well in hand. And that, in retrospect I think was her downfall. The rider did not ask her to go all out to the wire and she was coasting. So in the final 100 yards when the second choice came flying with all the momentum it was too late, nailed on the wire. But I rebounded in the finale when another Brad Cox 3yo, Mandaloun went off at a generous 2/1. I liked him to win and when I saw Cox interviewed by hottie Gabby Gaudet and he seemed awfully confident I felt even better. Despite the wide draw in post eleven the Juddmonte colt got into a good tracking spot. Florent Geroux asked him to accelerate in the stretch and he burst clear. Ran strongly to the wire holding the closers at bay. Cashed for over $30 on my last bet and win of the day.
It was an EXCELLENT day with nearly 40% wins and multiple stakes scores, but most importantly, I nailed all three of my "Best Bets!"
Sunday February 14: Valentine's Day
I felt like I would get at least a couple winners as the day started out, but was surprised when neither Ron Nicoletti or Acacia picked my "best bet" on top in the 9th race. After passing the opening two races (and in the 2nd I was spot on that the favorite in a four horse field had no chance for weak human connections - 2nd best). In the third I only went in for the minimum but turning for home it looked like Monte Ne the #7 would run away with it. Instead it was a photo finish and even the slow-mo showed clearly the #7 in front, but check the "official" photo compared to the freeze-frame:
Note how the rail is red to the finish line in real life, but in the "official" photo the red rail continues beyond the finish line.....that has always perplexed me and somehow I was NOT the winner. In the fourth I reminded Keith, who was watching with me at the time, about the time at Calder when we had a winner we'd have never picked had the "QSF" formula not pointed him out. And I told him here, in the fourth if you looked at the human connections (jockey just 7-for-114 and trainer who was 6-for-80 in all of 2020) you'd never pick Baby Lion. But THE HORSE, clearly looked best. He moved on the turn as they spun into the stretch and if you watch the highlight reel, he was probably the most impressive winner of the week, drawing off under wraps by nearly a dozen lengths.
Only had the minimum so I only cashed for a little less than $10, but another winner to the weekly total! My pick scratched out of the fifth and I passed. Both Ron and Acacia liked a horse they said would be a likely winner and I considered betting, but didn't. He won at 8/5. In the next, a maiden special for 3yo I could have easily made THIS the best of the day. Bold Agenda was a Todd Pletcher second time starter and when he debuted there were two Pletcher runners. The one with experience had faced next out stakes winner Dr. Post and I thought the experience was the difference. That Bold Agenda had been considered a win threat to that one was enough for me, as well as the big Pletcher numbers with second time maidens AND Irad up. He moved to the front turning for home but was way out in the middle of the track. He won, but it was closer than I thought it would be. Tripled the bet so cashed for almost $30.
This coming week we'll be in Orlando on Saturday when the re-drawn Laurel Winter Sprintfest card goes. And on Sunday the cancelled triple stakes card at Oaklawn from President's Day will be run. And of course the Gulfstream races!
Week 11 Racing Highlights
No comments:
Post a Comment