Week 10: February 3 - 7
After back-to-back weekends AT Gulfstream, I was excited that this week I'd be off on a "road trip" with the boys to Tampa Bay Downs for their Tampa Bay Derby Preview Day. And I was happy that I would be travelling with my buddy Keith, but even more excited that my son Jeff would be joining us for the trip. As the week unfolded I found it "interesting" that two weeks ago for Pegasus Week I'd struggled through the week day cards then had a big day on track; last week I had a solid three days, then struggled ON track; and then this week I had single wins on the three week day cards leading up to the big road trip. And when I handicapped the Tampa card it was my impression that the card was pretty lean for finding runners with an advantage enough to bet. But because we would be there I relaxed my standards I thought. So much so that when we arrived at Tampa Bay Downs I told both Keith and Jeff that I had picks in nine of the races but didn't have a great deal of expectations on the day - no "prime time" bets but we were here......and at the end of the day I had SIX WINS! Gotta love racing! Here's how the week unfolded......
Gulfstream Park Championship - First Half: December 2020 / January 2021
I spent the first part of the week running the numbers for the first half of the meet and was happy to discover that (a) while I'd struggled through January at a lower ROI for the month, so too had both Ron Nicoletti of Gulfstream and Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form. So for the combined two months, I am still the reigning king of handicapping :)
Wednesday February 3
After the 41% winning week last week, and the two month totals showing me as CLEARLY the handicapper to beat :) I was upbeat heading into the first day of racing. Ahhhh, racing is quite the humbling game as quickly I was returned to reality. I was much the best in the first race, a 3yo maiden claimer, except for a 5/1 first timer who came from a barn that was 1-for-29 at the meet and over the last two years had gone 0-for-15 with first time starters. WOW. Won the second play of the week, but with a minimum bet when Infatuating scored. I debated about playing the race because I am not a fan of 3yo claiming races at this time of the year, and even less a fan of last out maiden winners in those races. BUT.....Infatuating had been impressive and was the 7/5 morning line choice, AND both the online handicappers had her first. She appeared best, so I went in for the minimum. Had to duel through the lane, but proved to be a winner at 3/5.
But that was it. The 2/1 program choice in the sixth was cold on the board at 6/1 and ran like it - 6th; then ran 6th again at 3/1 when I just stopped. I "knew" I had a big chance in the feature and was the 6/5 favorite, but my pick showed little interest in running - fourth. And at even money in the finale I set a moderate pace and looked long gone until challenged. Then my horse simply said, "you gone on with it" and I finished a weakening third.
Thursday February 4
Certainly today would bring better results to "even out" the winning average. I liked Saffie Joseph's maiden in the opener, 4/1 and fourth when steadied leaving the gate. Todd Pletcher's Chao went off at 5/2 in the 3rd, another claiming event for sophomores, but rallying between horses proved to be only second best. Pressed to the turn with ANOTHER PLETCHER 3yo in a MSW, a Shadwell Stables well bred firster. Second choice at 5/2 I thought here we go and he stopped badly to be fifth. In the sixth I made the comment that I'd like Shop Girl a lot better if trainer Christophe Clement was NOT off to such a slow start here, posting a 22/1-4-3 mark to date. But I knew, having looked at the Tampa races, that he was winning at nearly a 40% clip there. Hmmmm, what to make of that - does he simply not have his better runners here? Bad luck? In the end I thought this speedy filly, who'd set the pace in a stakes last time out, looked best on paper in this entry level event and decided to go in for the minimum. When she took considerable early money AND was the pick in the double, Pick-3 and Pick-4 pools I decided to up the bet - considering what had happened yesterday with well-bet Infatuating. Broke right on top and never looked back.
Best of all, her price had floated up to almost 2/1 and I cashed for almost $30. NOW, here we go I thought. Sixth with an 8/1 longshot and then 3rd as the prohibitive 4/5 pick in the feature after breaking slowly (seems to be a theme at the meet) and weakening late. Another 1-win day.
Friday February 5
Let's build some momentum for tomorrow's big day, right? Not so much as it turned out. Didn't have a lot of confidence in the widely drawn favorite in the opener on the turf, but he did look best. A tepid 3/1 on the board led to an even fifth while the 8/1 first timer wired the field. In the 4th it was either Precocious Peach or Foxxy Belle who I thought would take this five furlong turf sprint for a mid-level $35K price tag. I went with the former by "a small margin" as I noted, based on the fact that she'd done more to date. The latter was a Saffie Joseph trainee and those usually improve when moving into his barn. But last time out, the first for him she'd not improved. Wrong choice as Foxxy Belle was much the best while I ran 2nd as the 8/5 second choice. The fifth was a similar dilemma between Berhanu and Beeboo. The former was CLEARLY for sale from the Todd Pletcher barn. Last time out for a $35K maiden 3yo event he'd been a just-miss favorite. Today he was all the way to the bottom for a $12.5K tag - but Irad Ortiz was on. So my thought was they WERE selling her, but only after getting another win for both as they sought repeat training and riding titles. Beeboo on the other hand was going for Brad Cox after back-to-back 3rd place finishes for $50K. Looked a LOT more like a "you can have him" move than a "let's win and get rid of them" move. The two went off as the top two choices and Berhanu tracked Beeboo into the stretch, then took off. Cashed for more than $25.
Again, I had two more "strong plays" so I thought I'd take off and finish with a good day. But, nope. Blocked all the way thru the turn in the sixth in a turf sprint while the winner circled the field clear of any trouble. Third at 9/5. And in the 9th I ran evenly at 5/2 with Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the Day.
Saturday February 6
Racing Road Trip: Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
What a great day! You can only relate to my day if you are a parent with grown children, and one of them shares a common interest / passion with you. To spend the day at the races with my oldest son was just THE BEST. Would not have made a difference to me if we'd run dead last with every single pick on the day (well, ok it was MORE enjoyable as we were all cashing tickets). To spend the day at the track was just great. I was very happy that we met Jeff halfway there from Fort Lauderdale so that he did about half the driving. And as I said, I honestly felt like some of the selections I had I'd stretched my normal standards (admitting that this is an esoteric "feeling" but still you have to make those decisions) for what was a horse with an edge to bet and which were not worth the money because we were going to be there. And probably part of that was because on the original twelve race card I had made four races "PASS" selections. But as we got started both the boys had different opinions in the opener, a cheap maiden claimer. My first comment in my analysis, which I shared with them was, "you have to decided just how badly you want to bet the first race...." But as I pointed out, while South House was the favorite, the other ten horses had "earned" Beyers in their last race of 0-17-0-34-0-0-24-33-31-and 25 while the chalk had earned three consecutive numbers of 39-37-38. The numbers rarely lie, even when they are pretty slow numbers. Pressed the pace for a half and took over as much the best. Only in for the minimum since it was such a cheap affair, but a win is a win my friend. In the opener at Gulfstream I ran third at a 5/1 with another Chad Brown disappointment. I thought I might have a good shot at an upset in Tampa's 2nd with 10/1 Cajun Delight. Bet down to 9/2 he took the lead into the lane and I thought I had it, but then the winner came to him....stretch duel....just missed, 2nd. Next up was my first added money bet, a Maiden Special for 3yo where I liked Christophe Clement's first timer for John Velazquez, Tough Tickets. Listed at 5/2 in the program the first flash of the board had her at 2/5. Even with Clement hitting at nearly 40% I just couldn't go in for more here. Tracked the leader to the top of the stretch, engaged him and edged clear to score in a sharp final time.
The fourth at Tampa was one of the "PASS" races so the next race at Gulfstream was a starter allowance going a mile and 3/8th around three turns. I thought Soglio was a legitimate upset threat at 6/1 in the program. Right away I knew I was on to something as the favorite was well back and I was in an excellent tracking spot in third, just a couple lengths off the front runner. As they hit the far turn he glided to the lead and turning for home opened up a daylight lead. At the furlong pole I "knew" I was hope free with a nice 5/1 winner. But inside the final 16th the favorite was absolutely flying.......they hit the wire together, PHOTO FINISH. I turned to Keith and Jeff and said, "The 1 held on, right." Pretty sure, Keith replied. The slow-mo replay came up and oooohhhhh, not so sure......
Nope. Sooooooo close. The first bet at Gulfstream and this one had come in a turf event - and my BET of the Day was in the Grade 3 feature on the turf - but as I came inside following the Tough Tickets score and looked up at the simulcast television, the Gulfstream broadcast was a dismal gray....obviously pouring down rain. Uh oh..... probably coming off the grass through the rest of the card. Next up was the fifth from Tampa where I liked Todd Pletcher's Unbridled Honor in a MSW for 3yo. It was a route going a shortened mile and 40 yards (a common distance at Tampa, but not at many other tracks) but I thought this colt would handle the trip being a son of multiple graded stakes winner Honor Code. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was up, in what's become a rare mount for Pletcher after being nearly inseparable for many years. Johnny V. tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, split horses, then ducked inside to get a clear run and edged clear for my third winner locally!
The fifth, which was coming up, was scheduled on the main, but still a few had scratched out leaving my top choice Augusta Melody being hammered at the windows. I checked the multi-race payouts and he was being equally hammered in those pools as well. I'd already made the minimum bet, but went back to the windows and got a second minimum play ticket. The class dropping favorite burst out of the gate and was never threatened, winning as Announcer Pete made the patented call, "...it's EAAASSSSYYYY Money....."
The sixth at Tampa saw my pick scratch and I just couldn't make a good enough case for my second choice to bet - glad I didn't as he didn't win. The BET of the Day was scheduled in the next, the fourth from Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Suwannee River going nine furlongs on the turf. But with the raining pouring down the field was reduced to only six runners, with my top pick being taken out. I looked up at the board and the second choice, a Chad Brown/Klaravich Stables runner with Irad Ortiz up was being absolutely pounded. I asked Keith to see his Racing Form and looked up the pp's of Great Island. He was lightly raced and had never run a bad race, but he'd never been on the main track. I turned to him and said, "Does this guy look like he should be odds-on?" He replied no, but he pointed out that at this point, heading into Race 6, GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti had ripped off five consecutive winners and this was his top choice. "Follow the money!" I decided, so I doubled the bet. And immediately out of the gate his nose went to the ground and he was dead last.
Another fan standing next to us said, "Well that figures" and we looked at each other, and Keith said, "Well for Nicoletti to win his sixth THAT horse is going to have to be M-U-C-H the best." Bad idea to bet the race I thought to myself. But then heading into the far turn Irad had Great Island on the move and he was picking off horses one by one and into contention heading into the stretch. But then he ran evenly for about a 16th of a mile and I knew he'd spent all his energy getting into contention, which is almost always the case when a horse breaks poorly. But then with a furlong to got he began to grind away and you could see that Ortiz would NOT give up on the win.....surging.....PHOTO FINISH!
OH SO CLOSE
But when the photo was posted, it was Great Island who'd scored! Another winner for Nicoletti - amazing, and I was relieved to be cashing the ticket. Even if I wasn't making a lot of money, it was good to have the winner in the feature.
The eighth at Tampa was a Maiden Special for 3yo sprinting six and a half furlongs. At the beginning of the day Jeff and I compared selections and he and I both liked #8 East Wing who was 5/1 in the program under top Tampa rider Antonio Gallardo. But I told him, "he's only my bet if he takes money in the win pool and/or in the multi-race wagering." After the prices were posted for the seventh, the first flash of the board of the board had him bet down to 5/2 favoritism. Well.....right in between what would make my mind up. He's the favorite and bet down - that's good - but he's not being hammered - so what does that mean? Checked the multi-race wagers and while he wasn't an overwhelming favorite, he was the clear betting choice. I decided I'd go in, but for only the minimum. By post time he'd floated up to 3/1. Broke smoothly and pressed the front runner through the far turn, then when asked responded readily to race away a clear winner - my FOURTH win on the Tampa card!
The seventh at Gulfstream was a MSW for 3yo with not one but TWO Todd Pletcher runners. Jockey Irad Ortiz was working on yet another multiple win day and was on the one Pletcher horse. But I had a better idea going with Saffie Joseph's first timer, a $600K sales grad. I lagged back while the Pletcher colt was up in time at a big 6/1 - would have been the "Day Maker" for me. Sigh.....every year I miss on more than one Pletcher price play. In the eighth, the first of the stakes at Tampa featured a Chad Brown lightly raced runner making his stakes debut, Greyes Creek. I'd had him both of his last two starts and wins and after the last one he made a national "horses to watch" list as they pointed out what I'd thought - this one was destined for a stakes win. Here it was. The wide post twelve didn't bother me because he was a big time closer. With John Velazquez up, who was having a big day, I felt very confident. But right out of the gate Velazquez put him pressing the leader in third while three wide. All the way to the far turn I kept thinking this would cost him the big late kick, unless Johnny V knew he was clearly on the best horse. Nope, I was right and he was wrong as Greyes Creek hung through the lane and finished fourth. Not happy. The eighth provided one of the best stories of the day and one of the lightest moments of the day. So heading into this race the three of us were now just infatuated with Ron Nicoletti's amazing run as he'd picked seven consecutive winners, and as Keith said, "How long can he keep going?" We looked up at the board and Keith pointed out he liked the rail runner in this allowance/optional claiming sprint. I flipped to my selection page and said, that with my turf pick out, this horse, Yodel E.A. Who was my "best" of the day. I asked Jeff to pull up the Nicoletti picks I'd sent him and he told me that this was also Nicoletti's Best, and I had Keith look in the Form because I was pretty sure that he was also Mike Welsch's Best Bet. He was. He tracked the speed to the turn, but the front runner seemed to put him away as they turned for home jockey Tyler Gaffalione had something left and when asked, Yodel E.A. Who spurted up the rail to a clear way and won going away. He went off at what I thought was a more-than-fair price of 6/5 considering he was BET of the Day for both online public handicappers. I turned to Keith and said, "You have that?" And he looked at me dejectedly and said, "Nicoletti on a roll, his best bet, but I've got a better idea." We all laughed as I headed off to cash my ticket for well over $30.
Right back about fifteen minutes later with the second stakes event of the day, the Suncoast Stakes for 3yo fillies with points on the line for the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May. Curlin's Catch was 6/1 in the program and her speed figures did NOT pick her out. But I'd seen her break her maiden at Gulfstream. The $430K daughter of champion Curlin had debuted around two turns at Woodbine and was a good second. That was enough to encourage the connections to try a stakes race, as a maiden. Nope. Off the shelf she'd been entered in a one-turn mile MSW at Gulfstream and I'd made her my pick on the class drop. Not only did she win but she ran away and was visually a "WOW" winner. On the basis of what I saw I thought she'd be a legitimate pick here. When I had compared my picks to Jeff's earlier in the day he told me this was his best bet of the day. Went out to the rail to watch. She tracked the pace confidently in fourth to the head of the lane, split horses and burst into the clear drawing off with every stride.
I was disappointed that (a) I'd only bet the minimum and (b) she'd been the 9/5 favorite. But hey, still my FIFTH win of the day on an afternoon that I had not anticipated many wins, I was delighted. Later when talking with Jeff he was so disappointed in himself as he pulled out his paper with all his picks. He pointed out that after he'd started out on fire, cashing multiple tickets at big numbers, he'd decided he had a better idea than what he'd spent hours handicapping to find. He didn't bet Curlin's Catch - as his best bet. I've been there where I made adjustments at the track, and that next to never works out. It was a lesson hard learned for me to do my handicapping up front and stick to the plan. That's what works for me and allows me to play nearly every day. Missed in the 9th when Nicoletti hit his ninth and I tried to beat him with an MTO pick - third at 4/1. The Grade 3 Endevour Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf at Tampa was up next and it was my "Best" of the day there. Chad Brown's Counterparty Risk was being well bet, maybe overbet, but I thought she was clearly best. First and foremost, it's a graded turf stakes and it's Chad Brown....hello, duh. Klaravich Stables, one of his top clients - double duh. She had only been out three times but had shown immense promise. In her debut, in a turf sprint she was ok, but when sent around two turns in her second start she took off like a shot and won for fun. So impressed the connections they shipped her across the country to run in the Lady Shamrock Stakes at Santa Anita. She closed like a runaway freight train and was a just miss second, beaten a head. Coming off the shelf - a huge win angle for Brown - she had four good works and with Johnny V up I was pretty confident. He had her saving all the ground on the rail and as they began to spin out of the turn into the stretch Velazquez once again proved why he IS in the Hall of Fame. A wall of horses in front of him he waited patiently to see where to go rather than taking his inexperienced filly way wide and losing valuable ground. The front runner drifted out and the rail opened up like the parting of the Red Sea. Velasquez asked and Contemporary Risk responded immediately shooting through and burst to the front. The second choice had been tracking the leader and took the worst of the turn. She came on valiantly, but the ride was the difference as the favorite scored by a clear length.
I'd tripled the bet and cashed for nearly $30 on my SIXTH WIN of the day at Tampa. We had all agreed that after the final stakes, the featured Grade 3 Sam Davis for 3yo colts on the Derby trail, that we'd head out. That worked for me because I wasn't betting the last race locally and my final four plays could easily be made online. So as we waited for the Davis I opened my Xpressbet app on my phone and bet two races from Oaklawn and the co-feature at Gulfstream as well as the Santa Anita feature, the Grade 2 San Vicente. I went with Todd Pletcher's Known Agenda with Velazquez in the Tampa feature. Too far back and rallied too little too late at 3/2 to finish fifth. We were all three tired from the mental challenges of the day, the highs and lows, and sadly at our ages from being on our feet nearly all day. Again, I was so happy Jeff had offered to drive this leg of the trip. We talked for over two hours, sealing a most enjoyable day. One of the main topics, which we'd talked about many times during the day was the HUGE crowd at the track. To think at Gulfstream we cannot even go on a regular basis, but not only could you go ANY day here, but on this big stakes day, it was packed!
As we were on the first forty minutes of the trip I watched my races on my phone.....the wonders of technology!
I ran 2nd in the first selection from Oaklawn at 2/1 then 4th at 6/5 in their featured King Cotton Stakes. In the 11th from Gulfstream, the Ladies' Turf Sprint I was probably even more confident that Lady's Island was running on the main track today. In her last she'd upset the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl on the main track in a gutsy performance when holding on by the shortest nose at 9/2 as my top choice. She is ultra quick and I knew no one would run with her early, the question was would she be able to hold on. Right to the front, and even though she was tiring late, she was still clear under the wire.
A more than fair $4.40 payoff put more than $20 back into my account. Mention must be made of the day Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti had. Granted, he always hits a good percentage of wins, AND the majority of them are favorites and/or short prices. BUT.....yesterday he closed the day with a longshot winner at $24.60 and then rattled off NINE in a row today, and finished ten-for-twelve. I don't care what the price is.....nine in a row? Ten counting the last race yesterday......that's impressive.
The last race for me on this big day was the first of the 3yo races towards the Santa Anita Derby, with Derby points on the line....the 7 furlong Grade 2 San Vicente. I had not seen Bob Baffert's Concert Tour break his maiden but everything I read said that he could be something really special. In the pre-race analysis as I listened they pointed out he was on the same path as the ultra talented Nadal had been last year, and coming back in just three weeks was a short span from a big win. But I've seen Baffert do this before. He figures if they ARE as good as advertised they'll win on talent and the stiff test that will come from the short turnaround will really move them forward. Sent off at 2/5 he came to the leader, his stable mate, at the top of the lane. But instead of kicking away he was in a dog fight. They dueled to inside the final fifty yards before he prevailed with my triple investment on board. Exactly as Baffert probably would have scripted it.
So for the day, an amazing 11-for-22. And even though the boys at the beginning of the day had half-jokingly asked me "You got another odds-on favorite you're betting?" I finished the day at 50% winners and in the black, which something neither of them could say :) Just a really, REALLY great day.
Sunday February 7
After the big day, preceded by the 1-a-day first part of the week I wondered how the final day would go. Making it a little more interesting was that not only was it Super Bowl Sunday, but we had a 3pm hockey game so I'd only see the first bet live. I passed on the openers and in the second I went with Just Like Mike in a basement level one-turn mile maiden claimer. Last time at this same level and trip he'd burst to the front and was multiple lengths in front heading into the stretch but had gone too fast too soon and tired. But today he got Irad Ortiz to ride and I anticipated he'd sit just off the pace and make his move on the turn. EXACTLY as I thought and when he assumed command he opened up and won in a dominating fashion like a Breeders' Cup champion.
In the fifth I gave one last chance to Miasolomiah who seemed to have finally have found a field she could wire. But she was outsprinted early and was third. The fourth was a MSW for 3yo and there was only ONE Todd Pletcher runner. But he was off slowly and was a non-factor ninth. In the seventh we were going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf in an entry level allowance for three-year-olds. Jouster had been ultra impressive wiring his maiden rivals last time out and had earned a figure that was a pole faster than anyone else in here. But he was almost certainly to regress today facing winners, even if they were all just maiden winners like he was. Still, he appeared to be the one and only front runner in the field. I doubled the bet. When I pulled the race up on my phone at the hockey game during the second intermission he burst from the gate and was multiple lengths clear into the first turn. Then the odds came up at the bottom of the screen - a miniscule 1-9......I don't care how good you are, to be deserving of such short odds you better be a multiple Grade 1 winner with a huge advantage over your rivals. But as they hit the far turn he literally was almost heading for home when the rest of the field had entered the turn. I almost turned the phone to show Kim, but then I thought, "let's wait for the win and not jinx this".....sure enough he began to tire and a 30/1 longshot began making up ground with every stride. They hit the 16th pole and he was still clear but still all I could think was "Really, at 1/9 we're going to get caught?" But no, still clear under the wire. Won't make much money, but padding the stats is just fine with me.
After passing the eighth my "best" of the day came in the ninth which was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the Day. I too liked Bill Mott's Obligatory who had run fourth in her debut despite a troubled start. Mott is well known to NOT have them fully cranked at first asking. The swift morning workouts and that good debut told me this one was sitting on a win. Away near the back Jose Ortiz got her into high gear on the far turn and she inhaled the front runners in deep stretch to clear off as a solid winner.
I'd tripled the bet and cashed for over $40 on my third win of the day. The final winner of the day came in the very next race, the tenth and featured, a starter allowance sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs. Last time out I'd been hesitant to bet Reservenotattained who'd exploded in his previous to earn an enormous, out of character 92 Beyer when going wire to wire. A horse loose on the lead like that often earns an inflated figure that isn't "true," but I tagged along and he wired a $25K starter allowance in ultra impressive fashion earning an even bigger 99 figure. Could he run back to those today? And especially could he do it going an extra sixteenth AND facing pace pressure? I tagged along again because of the "go with the hot horse" theory. He was outsprinted to the front and I thought, "this could be trouble." But he looked comfortable tracking the pace into the turn. Looked ready to run but had no where to go. Uh oh, not only not able to get the lead but having to deal with traffic issues, this is REALLY not good. But maybe, just maybe he really is this good as he split rivals and wore down the front two to get to the wire first.
A four-win day to close out the week brought my statistics for the week back to where they always are..... 33% at Gulfstream and just over that overall.
Gulfstream Park Week 10 Highlights
Social Media
Two items of interest....first, our girl Jillian announced on Facebook that following her initial success with her first children's book she'd soon be releasing another one. I reached out to tell her how proud I was.
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