Week 9: January 27 - 31
The ninth week featured another trip to the races - what a great story - and a good week of handicapping as I scored at better than 40% for the week. Unfortunately the day where I had the fewest wins at Gulfstream came on Saturday when we were at the races. This week also marked the end of the 2nd month of the meet and marks the halfway point of the Championship Meet. I totaled all the numbers and not only did I again out-handicap the professionals but continue to lead the way through nine weeks of racing.....
Here's how the week unfolded......
First, before the racing week began I kept looking online for information about how to get tickets to go to the races on Saturday because obviously, duh, after having fans there last Saturday - and more fans than would probably be there on any other day with the exception of Florida Derby Day - certainly, CERTAINLY we would be able to go to the races now. By the end of the day Monday no information so I reached out via Twitter to Announcer Pete Aiello and asked, and he replied shortly there after that he had not heard anything either way and to call the ticket office on Wednesday morning. When still nothing was out there by Wednesday morning I decided rather than call I would first try reaching out via email to a gal I've "met" online who works in the ticketing/admissions through the Pegasus Cup event, Sheri Holmes. Every time I've contacted her she's responded nearly immediately so I felt confident I would at least get a reply. Sure enough she responded, and she said that Gulfstream had not been given the OK to have fans yet - curious, was it a one-time thing last week? - but that she could get me seats on the Terrace Dining Level for Ten Palms restaurant. This too was interesting because I've seen online they are "closed for the season," and later I'd read that only trainers, horsemen, and owners can be there. I immediately jumped at the opportunity and said, I'd be most grateful for that chance. About an hour later she emailed back I was all set and to simply check with "Charles" (who I later found out is the manager of the restaurant) and he'd take care of me. No tickets, just show up. So very excited that we could actually be at the races again! More on this in the Saturday entry below......
Wednesday January 27
After handicapping the card for today I had seven selections, three of which I probably could have passed on but was willing to play - probably as I was coming off the big Pegasus week of action. In the opener I ran third at 9/2 and in the second I was 2nd at 6/5 when my second choice went wire to wire at 4/1 odds. I was happy with my decision-making in the fifth. I really liked Todd Pletcher's Pat Pat Pat in this maiden claiming mile turf event. So much so I'd made her the key in two Daily Double plays and two Pick-3 plays. But she scratched. Initially I figured I'd just pass. But in watching the morning show with Ron Nicoletti and Acacia Courtney they both put my second choice, Sengekontacket on top. Unlike most of my second choices I liked her chances even with Pat Pat Pat in the race, largely because she was first off the claim for trainer Danny Gargan, and that my friends is a 53% winning play. It was of interest to me, and why I discounted her chances initially, that Gargan had enlisted jockey Miguel Vasquez to ride instead of one of the "big boys." But, Vasquez had had three winning mounts for Gargan from just five tries. I decided to double the bet. Tracked the leader outside to the top of the stretch, then ducked inside and slid up the rail to edge clear late.
Paid a nice $6.40 so I collected over $30. I came right back in the seventh which was a seven furlong test for three-year-olds under non-winners of one other than conditions. As I started my analysis I asked the rhetorical question, "How big is the Saffie Joseph factor?" And I asked this because my top pick was Irish Honor who was moving to the Joseph barn. That in and of itself is a 26% win angle; today 'Honor added blinkers, a 23% win angle. But the biggest of all was that today, Irad Ortiz would ride. And as of this afternoon, the recently named Eclipse Award winning rider had been on thirty horses for Joseph over the last two season here and won with fifteen of them - you don't need a calculator to figure that's a 50% win angle! And that brings us to the point, because on paper with his speed figures, Irish Honor was not even close to being a contender on his best day. He tracked the leaders to the turn where the 6/5 favorite took over and edged clear, Ortiz asked and the response was immediate as Irish Honor blew by to score. I had tripled the bet AND he paid a handsome $8.80 to win ensuring a big profit for the day.
As it turned out that was it for the day so I finished just 2-for-7, but with a profit of nearly $40. In spite of that I was disappointed in the day, because as I've said before, I enjoy having a profitable day but I like being right!
Thursday January 28
It was another good day of handicapping today! I passed the first and my only comment was that the likely favorite had Irad on the rail. That one wired the field at even money. The second was a maiden claiming event going six furlongs for three-year-olds. I had mixed feelings about my pick, morning line favorite This Dude's No Fool. On the upside, he was dropping from OPEN $35K runners when he'd missed by just a length, and that after being checked and coming off a layoff. Today, second off the shelf he not only dropped in price to $25K, but into state-bred company. But what I did not care for was that in that last, he'd been dropping from $50K to $35K and his speed figure had not improved. Liked him enough to bet, but not more than the minimum. He was the second choice at 8/5 at post time. Tracked the 7/5 favorite into the turn, took over and drove home to win by daylight.
The $5.40 payoff allowed me to cash for more than ten bucks. Came right back with another "mixed feelings" pick in the third. Hartling had come off the shelf and moved into the Saffie Joseph barn for a December 3rd race where he beat Grace's Drama. That one subsequently came back to beat four of today's rivals and thus had the edge in recent racing. But that win came facing slower fractions that I thought Hartling would put up. Sure enough, Hartling pressed the cheap speed into the turn through less that fast fractions, took over and drew off easily.
Missed in the sixth after my pick scratched in the fifth. The theme for the day, as you can tell, is "Mixed Emotions," and that was the case with the top choice in the seventh. On the downside, he'd just faced maiden claimers at this level and distance on the turf, hit the front but couldn't hold on while earning a big Beyer figure. Hmmmm. BUT today he moved from a wide post to an inside post, and what I really was intrigued by was that jockey Luis Saez is winning at a 45% clip for trainer Danny Gargan. Good enough to not only play, but double the bet. Tracked the leaders to the turn, moved to the front, then it was a three-way stretch duel before he prevailed narrowly as the 4/5 favorite. Then the rider of the third place finisher lodged an objection. The stewards looked at the replays for a short time then said "NO" and I was the winner, cashing for almost $30 on my third of the day.
Missed at 6/5 when Storm Runner was in hand to the turn then stopped abruptly. The final selection of the day was my "best" of the day in the ninth. Payntdembluesaway was working on a FIVE RACE winning streak and had won six of seven since turning back to one turn on the turf. Add in that in two of her last three starts she'd earned numbers that would top the lifetime best of all of today's rivals. Looked worth every bit of the 7/5 program odds. Left the gate at 4/5 and I thought, considering her form, that this was stealing. Pressed a longshot leader to the turn under very confident handling by jockey Paco Lopez. Took over willing and was much the best under mild urging to the wire.
Even though today was a profitable day of about 1/4 what it was yesterday, I was MUCH happier with the results as I went four-for-six. WHOOO HOOO.
Friday January 29
The card today was weak in my opinion. I bet the minimum on the 6/5 program favorite in the opener, though not with a lot of confidence. Was interesting in that because I handicapped the card earlier in the week I used the DRF morning line and the 6/5 post time favorite was listed at 15/1 - typical. Then couldn't find anything I liked in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. In the fifth I liked Dugout, a lot. All meet long trainer Larry Rivelli - who's based at Arlington in Chicago, admittedly a notch below the GP competition - has sent a limited number of runners who it's obvious, they are serious runners. And a large percentage of them win off the bench. So it was surprising to me that Dugout had lost in allowance company, finishing seventh of eight. But he'd been "in tight" and "lost action" at a critical point. Valid excuses, but what about the plunge to $16K claiming today? Big time Fire Sale! Still, even that 7th of 8 performance would win here on the Beyer scale. Made me feel better that he was Ron Nicoletti's best bet. Broke sharply in this turf sprint, took back off the cheap speed and got clear on the outside. When asked, me moved willingly and won for fun.
I had one more bet in the eighth, and it was somewhat like the opening bet, I wasn't all that convinced that Zonic was a legitimate win contender but I was willing to play him based on my interpretation of the past performances. This was a $6.25K claiming event and last summer Irad Ortiz had ridden Zonic to a good third place finish for $16K at Saratoga, followed by a win for $12.5K. In the two most recent starts against MUCH better Irad was on board and Zonic was no where to be found. Today he plunged in class, but Ortiz sticks. I think he's a good judge of horse talent, so I went for him. Was interesting that he was 3/1 or so during the analysis portion and both Acacia Courtney and Ron Nicoletti remarked how "chilly" he was on the board with Irad up. As they hit the first quarter mile Zonic wasn't even in the TV screen - that's not good. But on the turn he had all the momentum and despite sweeping up six wide, he blew by and won going away. Even just the minimum on a $7.20 payout netted me close to $20 for the win. And the day closed in Hallandale with a good 2-for-3 afternoon.
But I wasn't done! I won't say for sure that it's the reason I handicapped the Oaklawn card for Friday, but after looking at the day's menu locally and not finding much I decided to play in Arkansas as well. I ran 2nd in two straight at even money and then 6/5 odds. Was sixth at 8/5, but today was all about the featured ninth which would almost certainly see The Sound go off at even money. This non-winners of two lifetime allowance looked to be a "free bingo square" for multi-race players based on the horse's last out 104 Beyer in a win at Aqueduct. But would he like the Hot Springs track? He had a best of 83 bullet here followed by a best of 111 bullet work. Brad Cox & Florent Geroux....easy pickin's right? Right to the front, in complete control, but turning for home he was challenged by a 13/1 outsider. Head up and head down the length of the stretch and with two hundred yards to go The Sound looked to be just behind, but he re-rallied courageously and won the narrowest of photos as my BET of the Week. That's NOT how you expect your best bet at 1/5 to win! But hey....I'll take it to close out the day :)
Saturday January 30 - Holy Bull / Forward Gal Day
Today was all about being at the track. After getting the email from Sheri I was curious and to be honest a bit apprehensive about how it would go once we arrived. I envisioned showing up and being turned away or any one of several other scenarios that would see Keith and I coming home. So I printed off the email and we parked on the south side as told and when we went in, we were greeted with a big smile and a temp check then sent on our way. I was amazed to find people all around the outside of the casino on the second floor watching the horses below in the paddock - wait, so I can come here and do this? And when we went into the restaurant "Charles" had us seated outside on the terrace right near the finish line. Throughout the day I was stunned with the large number of people who were in attendance. To be fair most were "in the restaurant area" but many were on the apron. And if I were guessing, the "crowd" today - where "no on site viewing is permitted" was at least half as big as last week if not more so.
The weather was a bit on the chilly side and Keith was glad he had a hooded sweatshirt on and I was glad I'd opted out of the short sleeve polo with a sweater vest for a sport coat over the polo. Race after race went by and unlike Pegasus Day I was NOT cashing tickets. My top choice was scratched in the opener and then in races 2-through-8 I ran 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. Could NOT cash a ticket. And in the first of the stakes races Jeff and his buddy had played along when we ran second, felt bad for them. Then they came back with half as much in the featured Holy Bull and we ran fourth. Fortunately I was collecting some money with some races out of town. Unlike last week I'd decided to handicap several other tracks and had several more picks than last week. Even though there weren't any big stakes events I still found several plays. And I cashed enough tickets to keep me upbeat. Finally in the co-featured Grade 2 Forward Gal I scored at Gulfstream. Zaajel had debuted for Todd Pletcher and looked sensational. Granted, fresh off just a maiden win but anything like that and she could be a serious stakes player. Off a beat slowly and wide through the turn she forged to the front. Had to fight through the lane but got clear late and edged clear. Very happy to have a win, and in a big stakes, while here at GP!
As Ron Nicoletti mentioned on the show Sunday, she probably moves forward off that after an easy maiden win, then having to fight - with adversity - to win against stakes company. The next outing will tell the tale of how good she really is / might be. The next race on the card was the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant and Todd Pletcher looked to have another strong hand in Con Lima who'd wired the field in the prep for this, the Ginger Brew Stakes. But I thought she'd have company today so I went with a price play runner, White Frost from the Bill Mott barn. In addition to what I thought would be an embattled pace flow, White Frost showed one of my favorite angles with lightly raced turf runners. After two dirt tries to start her career - where she ran well enough to be fourth and second - the Gainesway Stable daughter of Candy Ride got to move to two turns on the turf. She stalked the pace and closed strongly to win going away. This was even more impressive because the pace that day was very slow. And in spite of that, her Beyer put her close to the stakes number earned by Con Lima. Right out of the gate NO ONE went with Con Lima and I thought we were in trouble. Then on the turn, no where to go. Finally jockey Junior Alvarado got her clear with a furlong to go and she blew by to win going away. My "day-maker" play of the day paid $11 and I cashed for fifty-five big ones! WHOOO HOOO, it's a good day.
But that would be it at Gulfstream. Before I briefly describe the out of town wins, one story MUST be told......so the "cost of our ticket" to be at the races was our lunch with a sur-charge for being at the restaurant. How that all works I couldn't tell you, but it was only $75 per person and for that I had a big burger, a bowl of New England Clam Chowder, a glass of white wine, and apple pie a-la-mode. AND the full day of racing. I'll take that any big-race-day, especially if no one else is "allowed" to come. But later in the day I had to go find our waiter to ask for the pie and a cup of ice. To be fair the pie did come. But the ice didn't. I look over and there's Keith with his glass of tea, AND he's pouring his tea into a full cup of ice. "Hey, did you ask for ice?" "No dude, the waiter just brought it...man he's on top of things isn't he?" That's MY CUP OF ICE. And then along comes a piece of apple pie and he says, I'll take that and he gets MY pie (at least that's the way I tell the story!)
Out of town I had a maiden winner at Santa Anita and a 2/1 winner at Laurel. I also had a 1/5 maiden winner at Aqueduct. But the most success came at the Fair Grounds. In their opener Big Nick was being well played so I upped the bet from the minimum to a double investment - and he won. Scored with my best of the day there with All Fact on the turf. She'd won twice over the course and looked much the best. But the 8/1 lone speed looked long gone in the stretch, ahead by at least half a dozen with a furlong to go. Fortunately the stretch in New Orleans is massive and All Fact blew by in the final 16th to win. And then I scored in another maiden event with a double investment. You need to watch the highlights to appreciate those FG wins.
The last score of the day came in Oaklawn's co-feature, the American Beauty Stakes, a six furlong sprint for fillies and mares. I thought that Frank's Rockette and Horse-for-the-Course Amy's Challenge had equal chances. To be fair I picked Frank's Rockette who had the classier resume. But she'd only raced once here and lost, on off-going. And Amy had won multiple stakes here ..... and the track was off today! Still Frank's Rockette was the short-priced favorite. Caught Amy's Challenge in the stretch and edged clear to give me my ninth win of the day. You can't argue with that kind of a day!
Sunday January 31
Today started off like picking winners was the easiest thing since sliced bread. In the opener Copper was the top pick off a very troubled trip. The comment in the Form led me to look up the replay and he was crying out for run, so much so that Announcer Pete even called out she had no where to run. My second choice, Rosie's Invasion went off at 5/2 and was loose on the lead. As they turned into the lane Copper looked dead in the water and even seemed to lose ground. Then out of the blue she found her stride and in a sixteenth of a mile she inhaled the front runner and won going away.
Right back in the second, Todd Pletcher's Topo Grigio was either going to be best of all or off the screen. Why? She showed little here in MSW company then won for a $50K tag; then battled in a $50K starter at 7f before weakening. Off the bench Pletcher tried her on the turf and nothing. But today she was plunging to $12.5K. HUGE Fire Sale, but Irad Ortiz was up so you could figure that both Pletcher and Ortiz figured they'd get an easy win as Pletcher unloads the overrated filly. Pressed the leader to the top of the lane, made her move but had to work, but edged clear late.....two for two!
Right back AGAIN in the third, a state-bred MSW event. On January 3rd No Decaf had been on the lead and repulsed one of today's rivals and finished second while stepping up from a $30K debut. I thought she looked good right back at this level. The fans made the #1 the even money favorite in spite of the horse being an 8x maiden and very suspect human connections. No Decaf cruised to the front, then dueled to deep stretch before edging clear.
Second at 6/1 with a Pletcher maiden in a Maiden Special in the fourth. Missed in the sixth and the eighth before coming to my last play of the week was a Todd Pletcher runner, War Stopper who was stretching to 8 1/2 furlongs off a big win going a one-turn mile. Coming off a long layoff he was the prototype of the Pletcher runner here. Despite breaking from post eight with the short run to the first turn and the first finish line he was the 4/5 favorite. Moved four wide to the lead entering the turn. Wide through the turn and got to the front. Looked like he'd have to work, but in the final two hundred yards he found his stride and drew off.
For the week I scored at over 40% - ironic that the "worst" day came when AT Gulfstream on Saturday.
Week 9 Racing Highlights
The social media action....
Not a lot, but still I enjoyed reaching out and hearing from three of "my girls" out in the world....
No comments:
Post a Comment