I have been soooooo looking forward to this Saturday. It's been over ten months since I've been able to attend the races live at Gulfstream and finally, FINALLY we get to go for Pegasus World Cup Day. This week also marked the opening of Oaklawn Park, one of my favorite winter tracks. Let's see how the week played out......
Wednesday - Thursday January 20-21
Not exactly what I had in mind for the start of the big week. If you follow my racing journals and adventures you know that I was shut-out on Sunday to end last week. So on Wednesday I started the week with five selections from the ten race card. Only I could muster was one second and one third. Sigh, but I took consolation in two things...... first, I KNOW how my handicapping goes, and if I'm not winning today, I will be soon; and second, I wasn't the only one struggling today as it was a day full of longshots. The winners paid:
Thursday was a new day and with a new set of races - one of the great things about this game as there is always tomorrow! At this point, going back to Saturday's races I was working on a SIXTEEN race skid, but if there's one thing I've learned it's that you have to just keep playing! In the Thursday opener I knew Queen's Embrace would be odds-on, but I also "knew" that she was much the best with the starter allowance competition she was facing today. Last time out she'd been my top pick and won the $95K Claiming Crown Tiara at this same distance here. The filly was 6-for-12 lifetime and would take a WHOLE lot of beating here. Tracked in third while three-wide the whole time - not overly nervous but I did think that COULD be an excuse. Blew by at the furlong pole and the streak had ended. Didn't care one little bit that it ended with a 2/5 shot....on my records it says, "Race 1 - WIN" and that's all I care about :)
Passed the next THREE before running fourth at 3/1 and 3rd at 3/1 in the fifth and sixth. The seventh was a starter optional claiming event for sophomores going a mile on the turf. As I said, because these were 3yo fillies I would not have been at all surprised if my pick, I Get It didn't win because any of them could jump up and run big. But on paper it was hard to imagine this Double Beyer Advantage horse would NOT be posing in the winner's circle. She was on heels of the leader spinning out of the turn and there was briefly cause for concern. But once she was clear she was gone.
I liked Kirby in the 8th, a last out maiden winner, and while I don't usually look at those as a win bet, his pace figures put him loose on the lead. Through moderate fractions much slower than his last out win he simply couldn't keep up and faded to seventh. Another reminder that running in maiden company is an entirely different ball game than facing winners. Trainer Larry Rivelli doesn't run many here in the winter (from his Chicago base at Arlington) but when he does he wins a lot. But Richiesgotgame made his run too late and was a moderate fifth at 9/5. In the finale I'll admit I was not a big fan of Bee Catcher. This nw2L turf route just looked wide open. But the 4yo was the BEST of the Day in the DRF and more importantly for me, she was first off the claim for trainer Carlos David - who's having an excellent meet, especially considering all the big boys are here - and those first off the claim runners are winning at a huge 44%. Add in "paired Beyer figures" which is often a sign of a next out big effort, and going third off the shelf - another race that often produces a big effort - and she was the pick. Tracked the leaders along the rail in fourth to the turn then you could see the rider was riding him hard asking him to pick it up - that's not good. But suddenly he found his feet and the rest was history as he won going away. AND at a generous $6.60 allowing me to finish in the black for the day!
Friday January 22: Opening Day at Oaklawn
One of my favorite tracks - and I've been there twice - is Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Arkansas. When I saw that today was their Opening Day card I decided to handicap the races. I was 7th in the Gulfstream opener when I went for a price instead of betting who I thought would win....and he did at 4/5 odds. My second pick scratched and I passed the next two. After passing the first two in Arkansas I had my first bet there in the third. It was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event where trainer Mike Maker had two in the field. But Sharecropper drew my attention after being a best-of-the-rest 2nd in a rich $50K nw2L at Churchill last time. The drop in class here under top national rider Florent Geroux was more than enough to sell me. Tracked the leaders who went too fast going a mile and a sixteenth and inhaled them coming out of the turn to run away as much the best.
The sixth at Oaklawn was my next bet and it was my "best" there. It was an interesting handicapping angle I used...... last spring I had won a maiden race with Blackberry Wine who had already won his maiden and was highly regarded enough to run in two graded stakes at the Fair Grounds. He was subsequently DQ'd from purse money so was technically a maiden. Ran away with it. With that in mind, check out the pp's on Saffa's Day running in this maiden event.....
When the field hit the far turn Saffa's Day was between horses and the three of them were in a heads up and heads down duel. And they ran that way all the way to the wire.....PHOTO FINISH!
I thought watching it live and on the replay I'd won, but until the results came up I wasn't sure. But it WAS a great race, and I did win :)
Back to Gulfstream and their 5th race where I ran a dismal tenth as the 8/5 favorite and then another pass followed by an "ok" 4th at a good 6/1 price. Finally got a win in the 8th, an entry level allowance where trainer Larry Rivelli was at it again. It was a five furlong turf sprint and if Angelcents got away from the rail she would be gone. She did and she was. Paid a nice $7 so I cashed for $35.
That was it for the day as I ran 2nd, 3rd and 6th at Oaklawn and 4th and 6th in the final two GP events. But tomorrow is the BIG DAY!
Saturday January 23: Pegasus World Cup Day
So, SO pumped to be driving to Gulfstream and sitting in the stands to watch live horse racing. I handicapped the card and had even done a horse-by-horse analysis of all the stakes events. And I decided to look at both the Aqueduct and Oaklawn cards because in checking out the entries I recognized horses I'd bet on in the past in their featured events. After looking through all three cards I had picks in all twelve races at Gulfstream....not sure how much of that was because I was GOING....and I only found two picks at each of the other two tracks. I was happy to be sharing the big day with my buddy Keith and as soon as we arrived we were "processed" into the facility. Had to take a survey - had we been exposed or had the virus. Clear security and have our tickets (on our phones) scanned. And we were in. Keith had forgotten his glasses so he returned to the car. I found our seats and posed for the first photo of what I hoped would be many more.
In the opener I liked a Todd Pletcher runner to win this entry level allowance on the turf. I went to the paddock to watch the horses walk around and as I was standing there a thought occurred to me. I watched the lovely Acacia Courtney who was beautiful in a cute dress analyzing the field on air and I recalled that a couple weeks ago we'd exchanged messages where I'd said I'd be at the Pegasus and her reply was "I hope to see you there." I know she probably did not mean that literally, but I thought, what could it hurt to try to chat with her? I had already made my bet and as she left the paddock I was standing right there and I caught here eye. Even with her mask on I could tell she was smiling as she said "Hi," and I said, "I tweeted you this morning." When I had posted the fog photo (see at the top of the page) I had sent one to her in a tweet and said I'd see her here today. She stepped closer and I repeated what I said and she said "oh yes." So we talked briefly about how good it was to have people on track and for me to BE HERE. She said she didn't know anything about future dates. I decided to ask, and said, "Would you mind taking a picture with me?" She smiled (I could tell by her eyes!) and said sure. We took a selfie together. A little later I sent it to her and she liked it :)
You can see her reaction to my morning message and the photo message. The final message I sent her after she picked the big longshot winner of the Grade 2 Inside Information to make her a profitable winner on the day! So back to the racing.....I left the gate as the 8/5 favorite and tracked the leaders to mid-stretch. Moved into the clear, closed with a rush.....PHOTO FINISH! Keith said, "Did he get there?" I said, "That was really close, maybe." They showed the replay several times and it all depended on the angle that the "real finish line" was placed at......
You can guess, yes, I'm the #1 horse - second. NOT the start I was looking for, but as I said to Keith, I'm was ok with that because I am HERE at the races! WHOOOO HOOOOO. Came right back with another Pletcher runner in a 3yo maiden event going two turns to the first finish line. Dynamic One made a bold bid to the lead turning for home at even money and then finished evenly to be fourth. Sigh. Next up was the opener from New York where I liked Hybrid Eclipse. My comments were that you either had to toss her most recent tries or you'd think he was a vulnerable pick. He was good fourth in his debut at the tough Keeneland meet then a just miss 2nd in a rich $150K maiden event at Churchill. She had been the favorite and was in post twelve. Dueled and stopped badly. The post or the plastic surface or was she going off form? I chose the first two. Sent off as the second choice behind a strong 4/5 favorite she dueled to the top of the stretch then drew off with a flourish.
Only had the minimum, but it was a win. And as I said in the video clip I made, it WAS the first win of the first day (I hoped not the only one until Florida Derby Day) of live racing, but it was ironic to me that it came in an out of town race AND with just the minimum bet on her. Still, I will take the just over $14 payout. And speaking of, the official pay out was $14.25 and tellers at GP are notorious for only having dimes, so I was fully prepared to collect $14.20. But when I cashed the lady actually had a quarter - I WIN! The third at GP was another entry level allowance and my pick was a big 6/1. Belatedly for sixth. But the "Oh My" of the race was that Todd Pletcher won the race with top go-to rider Luis Saez at 6/1 odds - but I had a better idea. WOW. On the afternoon locally I had two "best bets," and if asked I would say that the one I thought just a click less of was up next in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper. Ironically on paper my pick Performer had "performed" much better and was more accomplished than my other "best," but that one (in the Pegasus Turf) was an up and coming talented runner I thought would run huge. Performer entered this as the "obvious" choice. He'd been out seven times and after a troubled third on debut he'd rattled off five straight including a Gr 3. His last was a sharp third in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. This one-turn mile at the same configuration should be right up his alley and he towered over these on paper. But, he'd never been here before and had to work out a trip from the rail under So Cal rider - his regular rider - Joel Rosario. He tracked along the rail saving ground to the top of the lane, moved into the clear and closed down the middle of the track wearing down the local horse who had made first run.
I'd gone "prime time" on him and collected nearly $40 on my first win at GP in a long, LONG time. HORRAY! Shortly after it was official we walked down to the breezeway to look up at the monitor for the Aqueduct feature race, the Jazil Stakes going nine furlongs. Mr. Buff had been in the Alex M. Robb about a month ago at this same trip here and he was my solid pick with a 7-for-14 record at the NYRA track and 9-for-15 at this distance. But the front runner had broken slowly that day. He took the lead into the far turn and was passed late. EITHER he was not quite the same as he'd been in past years or that tardy start and extra energy to get up close to the pace into the first turn had cost him. I wasn't willing to go "all in" on him but he was my double investment pick. The rider let another runner go and he had the same pressing trip, but as they hit the far turn I was thinking - and hoping - that THIS time the trip was by design. When he asked he blew by and ran away as MUCH the best. Was DEEEEE-lighted to cash for over $30.
Missed on two in a row locally when Emaraaty - a Chad Brown turf filly - was third as the tepid 2/1 pick in an allowance event and 2nd at 7/2 when Stage Raider, a debuting half-brother to Triple Crown winner Justify, was second best to an impressive 6/1 winner (also a first timer). The next race at Gulfstream kicked off a sequence of six graded events in a row to finish the big day. The Grade 3 Marshua's River for fillies and mares on the turf. Ironically my comment was, "you KNOW that at some point on the card a good horse is going to win at a big price. I am hopeful we get a price close to the 5/1 program odds on Zofelle." Her last was an ok try in Grade 1 company behind the ultra-talented Newspaperofrecord. Toss that. Any of her previous "ok" races would make her a win candidate you could make a case for, but her better races would put her as the decided favorite. The crowd seemed to be caught halfway between those two thoughts as she WAS bet down, but only to 5/2. Made a decisive move on the turn and ran away as MUCH the best. Cashed for nearly $40! I'm good with that :)
Another ironic part to this win came when I looked at how I did compared to the "experts." All three public handicappers liked Zofelle and she was NOT a short price. And NONE of us liked the Todd Pletcher filly Always Shopping in the next race, the mile and a half Grade 3 La Prevoyante. And she went off at even money and won. The Grade 2 Inside Information was won by a filly named Pacific Gale who paid $34 and was Acacia Courtney's top pick. Nice (that's when I messaged her). I ran a distant 6th at 5/1. So just because I'm a "numbers kind of guy," at this point of the day it was a little after 4 pm and I had gone 5-for-12, a pretty good day, right? Hang on Webby! So Cal handicapper Jeff Siegel had coined the phrase "Day-Maker" when he picks a price horse that if it wins would make his day. And mine came in the tenth, the mile and a half Grade 3 William L. McKnight Invitational. This race, and the La Prevoyante had been staples in the Tropical at Calder meet for years, so to pick the winner in either of these carries a little extra weight for me. I thought the 10/1 odds on Mike Maker's Tide of the Sea were way out of line and said so in my analysis. Three back he'd pressed the leader in a marathon event, took over on the far turn and ran away; two back he set sail on the lead under today's rider Tyler Gaffalione and wired a mile and a half rich allowance at today's distance. Last time out in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale he was rank and was checked early, never near the front. With the move back to Tyler G I thought he had a real shot to wire the field. Sure enough he went immediately to the front and as he hit the far turn I said to Keith, "he needs to hold the advantage into the stretch" and he did but another runner was coming to him. They were on even terms as they turned for home and the other horse seemed to get a nose in front, but Tyler had saved something and he implored Tide of the Sea for more and he responded, edging away to score as I whoooped it up! The 4/1 final odds were not even half the program number, but I was delighted to cash for $50.
About fifteen minutes later it was time for my last race from out of town, the feature from Oaklawn, the Fifth Season Stakes. Last winter I'd been a fan of Steve Asmussen's Silver State on the Louisiana Derby trail. He'd run second and third in the first two graded events before showing nothing in the Grade 2 La Derby. Asmussen took him to the shelf. He returned in late October and ran off by a widening seven lengths earning a career best 97 Beyer. Came back a month later at 7f again and was a daylight winner with a new career top 101 Beyer. Today he'd go back to stakes action and route running in this two-turn, one mile race. He tracked the loose-on-the-lead front runner into the lane and I was afraid that one had been allowed to coast on soft fractions for too long. But Silver State came at him doggedly, collared him at the furlong marker and the two of them ding-donged to the wire before Silver State edged clear. ANOTHER WINNER!
Even at 4/5 I was on a roll and happy to cash for almost $20. And this brought us to my BET of the Day. I'd had Todd Pletcher's Colonel Liam when he scored in his comeback score in the Tropical Park Derby. The analysts and Pletcher had said that this was a prep for the $1 Million Grade 1 Pegasus Turf Cup. His numbers did not stand out, but from the potential I thought he had, I thought he had the POTENTIAL to be another Bricks and Mortar who'd never been beaten after he won this race and won the Breeders' Cup Turf and was named Horse of the Year. About two hours previous to this, my oldest son Jeff had texted me "I need you to do a favor for me," and I knew this probably meant he was watching the races and wanted me to make a bet. He called and asked, "So your best bet is 7/2 in the big turf race?" And I knew this was where he was planning to bet so I said, "before you bet you need to understand that he's my Best Bet NOT because of what he's accomplished but because I BELIEVE he could be something special." He said that was good enough for him and his buddy. Would I please put down a $100 WIN bet for both of them. I agreed and told him to send me the money and I'd front him the cash. Within a minute I got a notice on my phone that $200 had been deposited into my account so I went to the windows and made the two bets on two separate tickets. I had placed them in my wallet so that I would not accidently drop them, toss them, or lose them. For this $1 Million co-feature trainer Todd Pletcher had THREE live runners and any of them could win. I just really felt that from the race I'd seen and the paper form on Colonel Liam, that he had such an explosive acceleration that he could really be a super star. As the field headed into the first turn he was stalking along the rail in fourth or fifth. I said to Keith quickly, "I like the ground-saving trip, but I'm always nervous when on a turf race you're on the rail behind horses. BUT I do trust Irad Ortiz to get the right trip. As the field swung into the far turn you could tell that Colonel Liam was crying to run but had no where to go. Ortiz made THE ideal decision - didn't hang on the rail (where he'd have been caught), nor did he swing to the outside where he'd been too wide. Instead he followed another horse who was accelerating, and when that one got into the stretch HE floated out a path and an opening appeared. Right on cue Colonel Liam hit high gear and was flying. For several strides the Pletcher runners were stretched across the course running 1-2-3. But in the final 16th it was Colonel Liam who prevailed. As Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey said on the NBC national telecast, while he won by about a half length, he was clearly the best horse. Props to the second Pletcher runner Largent, and especially to jockey Paco Lopez who snuck through on the rail and almost got to the wire first. I was yelling so loudly as they crossed the wire because my prime time bet had scored. But I kept thinking in the back of my mind about those two big tickets in my wallet. The prices came up and the winner paid a generous $7.00. I would be collecting $70 - whooooo hooooo. And as I went to the window to collect from a guy who'd been "my man" to bet with I cashed out on the Tide of the Sea bet, the Silver State bet, AND the Colonel Liam bet so he counted out almost $150 for me. Then I handed over the other two tickets and as I gave them to him I said, "My son bet one race, on my best bet.....on this race." He looked at the tickets, looked up at me and said, "He picked a good race to win!" He then pulled out multiple $100 bills and counted out seven of them for me. My phone was buzzing with texts from Jeff and his buddy. It's a V-E-R-Y good day.
And now it was time for THE race. I've had very good luck in the Pegasus World Cup. In the initial year when I foolishly felt it was too expensive to be at the world's richest horse race (boooo me) I'd bet and won with Arrogate in this race. In the second year, when I came to my senses, I'd had Horse of the Year Gunrunner as my BEST of the Day. Two years ago in the drizzling rain I'd made the second choice, and winner of the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, City of Light my top bet and he'd splashed home the winner. Last year I missed, but I thought I had a more than better chance today. One of the most dazzling wins on the Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday card this past fall had come in that same Dirt Mile event when Brad Cox's runner, Knicks Go went right to the front and wired the field. It wasn't that he went wire to wire or the winning margin that was stunning. It was that he'd rattled off fractions of :21 and change, :44 and change, and 1:08 and change. Those kind of fractions will win most Grade 1 six furlong sprints. You simply CANNOT go that fast around two turns at a mile distance, but he did. His last two Beyers would last two Beyer figures would top 151 of the combined 152 combined starts of his rivals today. Was he still as sharp as his BC performance? A sharp bullet work said yes. The only questions left were (a) would he have company on the front end and (b) could he get nine furlongs? I didn't think anyone would run that fast and that would put him loose on the lead so he'd have no problem with the distance. He went right to the front, but he had some mild pressure. When the opening half mile was posted at :46 I thought he might be going too fast. But on the turn when the other riders were pushing their horses to try and catch him, jockey Joel Rosario had not even moved his hands. Turning for home he opened up and ran away as MUCH the best. YESSSSS! I'd closed the day with back-to-back-to-back-to-back wins, including the two million dollar features of the day to give me FIVE stakes wins at Gulfstream today!
For the day I finished an amazing 9-for-16, that's well over 50% my friends and cleared a profit of over $150. An amazing day AT the races.
And when I compared my handicapping to the pros, I had the best win stats with only Acacia's big longshot winner providing her with a more profitable day than mine. Just a great, great day!
Sunday January 24
Like ALL days at the track, there were stories to be told, but one in particular. After passing the opener I doubled the bet on Think It Thru in a maiden claiming sprint for sophomores. There were three legitimate win contenders but Saffie Joseph's filly seemed to best to me, especially on the drop from MSW company. Pressed the early pace, opened up and won by as many as she wanted.
Was 4th at 5/2 then with my top play - and Acacia's best bet - I was 2nd at 1/2 when Caramel Swirl could not get by the 7/1 front runner through the lane. Rallied for 4th in another MSW for 3yo in the fifth before the sixth race rolled around. In non-winners of two lifetime races like this I next to never play a runner who's already lost in this restricted competition. And so it's almost automatic when there's a single runner trying the competition for the first time. So for me, King Ottokar was a stand out as he dropped out of allowance company for a FIRST TIME tag and first time in 2L company. What made me hesitate was that NEITHER of the top two public handicappers had him on top, OR in their top three. What's up with that? He tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, opened up and looked gone. Then between runners here came a closer.....PHOTO FINISH. I was PRETTY sure he hung on and he did.
The generous $6.80 led to a payoff of nearly $35. NICE. That SHOULD have been the end of the winners for the day but as I was watching the races, in the featured ninth race - an entry level sprint - I noted my top pick was being hammered. And I recalled that when I'd watched the "Morning Show" where Ron Nicoletti and Acacia Courtney were analyzing the races, I thought they both had liked her. I pulled up the video and yep, they did. Acacia in particular was very positive.....
I considered for a minute - Royal Meghan is MY top pick. She's being pounded in the WIN pool and in all the multi-race pools, AND she is both Nicoletti's and Courtney's top play A-N-D she raved about her. I'm in! Placed a double investment and watched as she rolled home as tons the best.
For the week I'd piled up NINETEEN wins! And the biggest day came when I was AT the track. You can't ask for a much better week than that!
Week 8 Highlights
Social Media Activity
Certainly the and I mean T-H-E highlight of the week came when I followed up on Gulfstream hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney's comment to me a couple weeks ago when I tweeted her that I'd be at Pegasus Cup and she replied, "Hope to see you there." Prior to the first race I waited for her and she was so sweet to talk to me and pose for a photo together.
In other social media comments and likes that caught my eye.......
Jen Cook and I worked together at Cypress Bay and actually met out at Gulfstream a few years ago. I'd told her that she needed to quit her job and take "the job" of being my full time track assistant and we'd fund her retirement. Ever since we have exchanged messages referring to that. It had been a while since that had occurred and in reaction to my Saturday morning post that it was Pegasus Day, she posted a message to me.....
Pretty cool :)
After I'd commented on Lauren's Facebook post of this photo, a day later she posted it on Twitter and I commented again :)
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