Week Twelve of the Championship Meet was "just a week" for me. Had some winners, but nothing to write home about and for the week I finished at almost 30%. There are probably as many or more stories about the losses than the wins unfortunately. A word about this week's banner. That's my great buddy Jim Anderson in the photo with me from our March 2018 trip to Laurel for a racing weekend. Little did we know that just one year later he'd suddenly pass away. I miss that guy all the time. He was a great friend and a super racing buddy as well as a wonderful human being. Sigh.....
Wednesday February 17 There was quite a bit of rain the first part of the week and even though it had mostly stopped by mid day on Wednesday I wasn't surprised to see all the races came off the turf. As I'd handicapped on Tuesday I figured as much and had looked for main track selections in the turf races. To preface the day's summary it's worth mentioning that the ten winners on the day paid $4.60, $13.80, $36.40, $23.80, $7.60, $4.60, $7.60, $10.60, $15.40, and $16.20 - not the kind of day that I'd typically have multiple winners on. I was fourth in the opener, off the turf, at 8/5 after making a bold bid on the turn and flattening out. I had said for the 2nd that IF Jacohare took some money in either the win pools or the double pools I kind of liked him in the second. He didn't...passed the race....he won and paid double digits. WOW. I was loose on the lead into the stretch in the third at 5/2 and stopped like I was shot to finish sixth. I was the even money favorite in the fifth and was left at the gate. Rallied but couldn't catch the loose on the lead front runner who unlike MY pick in the 3rd did NOT stop. In the 7th I was squeezed AND checked at the start to the back of the field. Finished 4th at even money and I really think I'd have won had I not spotted the field all that ground. That closed the day. Disappointing, but there's always tomorrow!
Thursday February 18 After passing the opening two races I had the 4/5 favorite in the third. I was between runners into the stretch then backed up to be fourth while a 6/1 runner never stopped. In the fourth my pick was the 1-2 favorite, glided up to the 8/1 leader as heads turned for home.....empty and that 8/1 runner wired the field. WOW. Finally in the sixth I got my first winner of the week. Call Curt looked to have the ideal field for his late kick as most the runners looked to prefer the front end. He tracked the leaders in fifth to the stretch, moved three-wide and cleared them to win going away. I'd doubled the bet and was delighted he paid nearly $7.
In the seventh it was a Maiden Special for 3yo going a mile on the turf. Credit me with a good handicapping decision because there WAS a Todd Pletcher runner but Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has had a very hot hand here this winter, which is most unusual. World of Tour was going for the barn with Junior Alvarado who is also having an uncharacteristically good winter here. The debuting filly had three bullet works for today and just looked to be sharp enough to take this. Tracked th epace into the turn, collared the leader....dueled through the stretch and edged clear late. AND for the second race in a row I got a very good price. The $10.60 payoff led to collecting nearly $30 even though I'd only gone in for the minimum.
I ran 2nd at 6/5 in the last bet of the day after getting to the lead and being run down late by an 8/1 winner. The BET of the Day was in the finale but Get Rewarded scratched out. And trust me, it WOULD have been a good handicapping story how I landed on her. Such it is. Got two wins and I'll be content with that.
Friday February 19 I thought today's card was particularly weak considering the time of the year. And my selections reflected that as I had six outright "PASS" races, three of which were so bad I couldn't come up with even a single horse to mention. And of the four bets on the day two of them were just for the minimum because I didn't have a lot of confidence in either. Passed the opener and then the two minimum plays resulted in drubbings..... 6th at 2/1 and 7th at 2/1. Ouch. Passed the fourth before getting to the fifth. Interesting that the "best" of the day was this nw2L claiming event on the turf. Break Beat had MANY angles going for him. He was sent out by the red-hot Danny Gargan barn and while at first glance you'd say "Hmmm" that Miguel Vasquez was riding instead of one of the "big boys," Vasquez had been on board for his last winning effort. Break Beat was 2nd best in a $35K nw2L last time out and today was dropping in for a mere $12.5K price. And ALL FOUR of his turf Beyers beat 80 of the combined 82 lifetime Beyers earned by his rivals. Neither of those numbers were typical for those horses making Break Beat a real standout. He came running three wide into the stretch, dueled for almost a furlong with two others then edged clear to win by a drawing off length under the wire.
Cashed for nearly $25 on my triple bet. Missed at 2/1, again, in the last play of the day. On to the "big day" Saturday....which wasn't really a big day on the calendar or the results.
Last weekend Laurel was scheduled to run their "Winter Sprintfest" card but after the analysis of the entire card it was announced that the freezing rain was causing a cancellation of the racing. Then it was announced later in the day the entire card would be moved to today. Now that's not all that uncommon but when I saw the entries come out I was surprised to see that it was truly the exact card. THAT is unusual. I had six picks on the card, and it was convenient that I did not have to handicap the card because we spent a good part of the day traveling to Orlando for the weekend. The Gulfstream Saturday menu included the Gr 3 Royal Delta but it was a pretty light field and the rest of the card was nothing special as well. Part of this has to be that next week is Fountain of Youth Day with NINE graded stakes, so nearly all "the good ones" are probably targeting those races. Still I found seven races I liked well enough to bet. Passed the opening two and then in the third I noted that everyone would be just falling overthemselves with Dontpushyourluck who was going first off the claim for Mike Maker. And despite those winning at a 15% or so clip for over two years, everyone raves about "watch out, it's first off the claim for Maker!" Still the horse DID look best in this maiden claiming turf sprint. But on the far turn he was not running at all and nearly half a dozen off the lead. Leading rider Irad would not give up on him and with about a furlong to go in the stretch the horse woke up and mowed them all down to win going away.
The double investment started the day off with more than $20 in winnings. Came right back in the fourth, a claiming event for 3yo - which I typically do not like. But here Briella was the lone dual winner in the field and was double dropping out of stakes company to this $50K spot. Right to the front where Miguel Vasquez rationed the speed perfectly, slowing down the opening quarter to :23.2 and the half to a glacial :47.1 going six furlongs. Plenty left for the drive and won decisively.
The rest of the day was characterized by near misses. The two "worst" came in the 8th when Todd Pletcher's odds-on choice Ghazaaly, and a "prime time" play for me went gate to final jump; later in the tenth Shug McGaughey's Dreams of Tomorrow led into the stretch and was caught on the wire. Those two races would have made me 4-for-9 and a clear-cut profit on the day, instead I finished 2-for-7 and lost money. Meanwhile at Laurel the first stakes event, The Miracle Wood, featured a rematch between Kenny Had A Notion and Maythehorsebewithu who had dueled nearly gate to wire last time before 'Kenny edged clear. Somehow under the conditions today he got a weight BREAK. Looked to go right to the front and wire them again. But for some reason the rider let 'Maythehorse go uncontested on the front end and I chased him all the way around, weakening to be third. Finished third at a pricey 5/1 in the John B. Campbell. My two best plays came in the next two.....first up was the Nellie Morse going a mile and a sixteenth. Lucky Stride drew wide with a quick run to the first turn, but her off-the pace style negated that problem. Of the combined 195 lifetime figures earned by the rest of the field, only two would be competitive with Lucky Stride's last two numbers. I was just a tad concerned when during the early handicapping show the two analysts pointed out that two scratches would make the pace slower and therefore more challenging for Lucky Stride. But the rider had her closer today. Swooped up as they spun out of the turn and drove to a clear and decisive win. The triple investment netted nearly $30.
The sixth was the Wide Country for 3yo fillies going seven furlongs. I'd had Street Lute in all of her last three wins. But I had thought last time she might be peaking but stuck with her. Instead of a close finish like the two back win, she drove clear handily. Maybe TODAY she'd be over the top? But she'd worked a sizzling best-of-41 bullet in :59.3 - she's still in high form I felt. The two front runners were quickly clear by half a dozen but jockey Xavier Perez waited patiently in third. Despite the big gap when he asked the "Princess of Laurel" heading into the turn she effortlessly inhaled the two of them while three wide. Entered the stretch with a daylight lead, and when two challengers began to make up ground he asked the filly for more and she held them safely at bay. I was delighted to get even money on my BEST BET of the Day!
The day had "ended" with the family driving to a restaurant for dinner and I watched my pick in the Gr 3 Royal Delta open up to an apparent win, only to be caught nearing the wire by a 25/1 horse. So when we returned home I opened up my program to get my totals for the day. It was sub-par and for the first time in I don't know HOW LONG I did something that hardly ever is a good idea for a horse player! I opened up the Brisnet entries for Saturday and said to myself, "Who's still running tonight? And are there any 'locks' available to pad my stats?" Without even handicapping? What are you thinking? I saw that Charles Town was running and in their second race Dancing Destiny was listed at 4/5 in the program. Flipped back to Xpressbet - "0 minutes to post!" Opened the video and the horses still had not approached the gate. Checked out the payouts and apparently "everybody" thought Dancing Destiny was a "mortal lock." Good enough for me! I slapped down a triple investment - oh my!!! The latches sprung and 'Destiny was quickly four lengths clear. No one challenged her and she loped around the track to score by open lengths....oh how clever am I? Added another win and while it wasn't much, the additional $20 plus helped soften the financial loss on the day.
Sunday February 21 Certainly today would bring an "evening out" of the numbers I thought as I opened my program while we were in Orlando. I knew I'd miss nearly the entire card as we planned to leave around first post and I didn't have a bet in two of the last three races. We got home just after my next to last bet in the 7th. I opened the replays and watched as first Thorn won the opener and then after a 4th at 5/1 in the second, Makisupa won for fun in the third. Here we go! I thought....
Not to be....had a Todd Pletcher 3/2 favorite come up flat at 3/2 when third in the 4th, was second at 9/5 in the fifth when I narrowed it to two runners and picked the wrong one; then was a very disappointing fourth as the 3/5 favorite with a Larry Rivelli runner - then nearly always win. Got to watch the last play of the day, Tusk in a claiming event on the turf in the 10th. Sent off at 4/5 she cruised to the front for Saffie Joseph into the stretch, then when asked to put away the late runner she had nothing. Weakened to third. So another two-win day and a small loss.
Gulfstream - Week 12 Highlights
But NEXT week is Fountain of Youth Day and we WILL be there :)
It was a good week of racing that started off with stakes action on Wednesday, yes on Wednesday, and included not one....not two....but three BIG BET WINS on Saturday from the Sunrise Simulcast Center. And at the end of the week, I had hit on better than 40% of my selections and collected a clear profit. Here's how the week played out......
Wednesday February 10 Today was Premier Championship Day at Delta Downs. I was surprised when I read that earlier in the week because typically the three smaller tracks in Louisiana - Evangeline, Louisiana Downs, and Delta Downs each have a La-bred statebred card, always on a Saturday night. But this year's Premier Day was today. I have always had pretty good luck at these stakes events and so I handicapped the card. From the ten race card there were four starter stakes with purses between $40K and $50K. The other six were $100K and up stakes events for La-breds. And on the Gulfstream menu there were ten races from which I found five legitimate runners to play. After passing the first two races at Gulfstream, it was post time for the 1st at Delta Downs which went off at 1:55 pm here because they are on Central Time. Closed from far back at 3/2 odds to be third. The third at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming sprint on the turf for three-year-olds. Generic Joe drew mixed feelings from me. He figured on the drop off of a solid debut and a wide draw, excuse-filled second start drew a line through it. But my issue was that 'Joe had been a short priced favorite in BOTH events and had not delivered. With the way he was taking money I decided to up the bet and he wore down the leaders through the lane while under a hand ride from Tyler Gaffalione. Cashed for over $20 to kick-start the week.
The next two bets were both from Louisiana. In their second it was a $40K starter going a mile. As I noted, if you were NOT betting on favorite Kris T. you had to hope that she would not run her race. She boasted a 6/5-1-0 record locally, had rising speed figures and was a six-time winner at the trip. Went off at even money and won for fun.
The fourth from Delta was the first of the stakes. This was the Premier Starlet for three-year-old fillies going a mile. 2020 Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox had unbeaten Australasia who'd blown away the competition by a combined fourteen lengths and change in her first two starts, the second of which was a state-bred stakes like this. When given the cue on the far turn she took off like the rest of the fillies were tied to the rail. As Announcer Pete would say, she made 1/5 look like EEEAAASSSYYYYY MONEY!
Ran 2nd at even money at GP in the fifth before post time for Race 6 rolled around. It was a maiden claiming turf route and like the earlier races I had "mixed feelings" about Eagerly who would almost certainly be a short priced favorite in here. He was a Pletcher runner and a 4yo son of American Pharoah - that's all good. But he had a 6/0-2-2 record today and was dropping out of MSW company today. However, for a rich $50K price and with Irad Ortiz taking the call I was pretty sure that it wasn't a "fire sale," and he was well meant. He was also the DRF Best Bet. Surged four wide through the lane from off the pace.....PHOTO FINISH with my second choice. But I felt fairly comfortable that I'd won, and I did. Cashed on my second Gulfstream win for over $20.
The fifth at Delta was the Premier Prince for 3yo colts and I didn't have a strong opinion. I liked Wise Verdict enough to wager the minimum and he close with a rush five wide to be third at 3/1. Next was the BET of the Day. Grade 1 winner No Parole was making his 2021 debut in the Premier Sprint. The concern was he OBVIOUS has bigger targets down the road, but his best would blow the doors off these guys. His "B" game would win. Would he be ready off a lengthy layoff? Fired a best of 44 bullet in a wicked :58.4 that convinced me. Right to the front and looked comfortable, but a 15/1 runner came to him as they came out of the turn. No Parole seemingly looked him in the eye and said, "C'ya" and was long gone. Didn't pay much, but I was rewarded for my strong opinion.
Didn't like anyone in the Premier Distaff and missed in the Premier Matron when Mr. Al's Gal was 4th at even money. Missed in the last two at Gulfstream and I appeared to be finished for the day when my top choice in the featured Premier Day Championship scratched. But everything I read and the early video analysis indicated that "everybody" thought Underpressure would defend his title today. He was a deep closer and on this small track I was a bit hesitant. But the early money had him at a miniscule price and he was a clear favorite in all the multi-race wagers. I looked at him again and decided to pull the trigger on a triple investment! He was towards the back midway down the back side then glided into contention. Mid-way on the turn he was asked and he circled the field, inhaling all the runners in front of him with the exception of the front runner who was two clear into the short stretch. But all the momentum was with my pick and he blew by to score.
The odds had floated up to 7/5 so I cashed out for over $35 and completed a 6-for-12 day with a nice little profit. Good times!
Thursday February 11 Today I "only" had the Gulfstream races. And much like yesterday I didn't have many firm opinions. In the opener there were the usual questions about the class plunging Exact, especially at a short price. But as I noted in the analysis, most all of the Todd Pletcher class droppers like this WERE almost certainly for sale, but he dropped them way down to get the nearly certain win as he tries for a 17th training title. And Irad Ortiz, looking for a third riding title in a row is almost always all in to ride these kind. So with those two on board and Exact going from a rich $50K spot to this moderate $16K spot, he looked hard to beat. Right to the front....dueled through the opening quarter and that was the end of that as he ran away as the 1-2 choice, allowing me to cash for $15.
Missed in the 2nd at 5/1 then passed three straight. The sixth was the "Story of the Day" - as there's ALWAYS a story with a day of racing! The sixth was a starter allowance sprint going six furlongs. As I scanned down the past performances I stopped and even said out loud, "WHAT?" as I came to the #3 First Investor. She was listed as the prohibitive 7/5 favorite in the program and horses are NEVER listed at odds that low unless they are REALLY obvious. To be fair, First Investor HAD earned a big 83 Beyer in her last, but..... read my analysis:
So I was curious today when watching the Handicapping Show prior to the race day what the two on air analysts, especially Acacia Courtney thought. And she had nearly the same thoughts as I did (you can hear her analysis and comments in the "Week 11 Highlights" video below). Now, while it's true that Stripping did NOT go off at double digit odds, in my opinion, the fact that she blew by and paid almost $7 while being the "obvious" choice and after Acacia had told everyone so, was amazing. I immediately reached out to her via Twitter and complimented her and she responded almost right away, with a smile I'm sure.
WE WIN!
Passed the 7th and 8th and ran 2nd at 4/5 in the 9th going a mile and a half on the turf. And passed the finale. So, another fine day with 50% wins and a solid profit!
Friday February 12 Today was another one of "those days" which just proved once again, if you're a real fan of horse racing you HAVE to stick to the plan and wait until the end of the day to really judge what kind of day you are having! At noon I began watching the live stream from Gulfstream to hear what Acacia and Ron Nicoletti had to say about the card. Then the racing began....passed the first and watched my top pick win, ran a dismal 8th at 8/5 in the second; ran an ok 3rd at 6/5 in the next; passed the fourth. Off slowly and third at 8/5 in the fifth; then was clear into the stretch as the 6/5 favorite, but caught on the line by a 10/1 longshot in the sixth. So now it's about 4:15 pm and I've got nothing to show for the day. Found myself, in spite of knowing the axiom I led with, wondering about my day. Then it all turned. The 7th was an entry level allowance for 3yo on the turf. As I wrote, "Todd Pletcher does this all the time." Hyperfocus was going for Pletcher with top rider Irad Ortiz up and was listed in the often way-off DRF morning line at 15/1. He was impressive in debut then tried stakes company and was outrun. That was last summer so Pletcher put him away. That is what he does - brings back lightly raced runners who flashed talent at GP and they win, at a price. FLYING down the middle of the turf course at a big 4/1 price and up in time. The $10.20 payoff meant I'd cash for over $50 and suddenly I'm ahead for the day! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Passed the 8th and then it was the "WOW" race of the week. Chad Brown - who's been awfully quiet and frankly disappointing this winter - was sending out 5yo mare Miss Teheran. Of the combined 105 starts run by the eleven facing her today, NONE of those races were as highly rated as the last two starts by this one. She was a close 4th in Santa Anita's Gr 3 Frankel where she'd been the 5/2 favorite. She'd won two of four starts in Europe but had yet to win in three US starts. Still, the numbers don't lie. She was well back while the leaders put up moderate numbers and then she had some traffic coming out of the turn. At the top of the lane she was still mid-pack in between and behind horses while the leader had cleared the field and had already reached the furlong marker.
You have to watch the replay in the highlights to truly appreciate the WOW explosion and turn of foot as she blew by to win going away in one of the most electrifying races I've seen this winter. I had tripled the play so I cashed for almost $35. Suddenly after spending over five hours with nothing but watching my picks fail to deliver, I'd finished 2-for-5, an excellent 40%, and had the biggest profit of the week. Gotta love racing.
Saturday February 13
Today was the BIG Day! But as I said on the main page, I quickly lost all six of the Laurel stakes when they cancelled the card due to the freezing rain and frigid temps. The silver lining is that they have been re-scheduled for next Saturday which was a pretty light day on the national scene. Much like Friday, after all the anticipation I spent from noon until 2:30 watching seven races be run when I'd passed the race, and of the ten I bet I won A SINGLE RACE. And to add insult to injury, I had bet the minimum on a 1/5 winner. So my $5 investment returned a whopping $6.75. Not to worry though, I'd re-learned my lesson yesterday and I felt pretty comfortable that while I might not have a "big" day, I felt pretty good that I had some highlight reel races ahead. And the turnaround began in the fourth at the Fair Grounds with a maiden 3yo race. Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Runhappy had been effective going a one-turn mile and today his son, Run Classic was making his second start while stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth off a best-of-the-rest 2nd sprint debut. The $475K sales grad looked good on paper IF he could get the distance. Top rider Florent Geroux took the call and after tracking the pace, he got to the front in mid-stretch and extended his lead to the wire. Paid a nice $5.40 and I had nearly $30 back from the first couple hours of next to nothing. Here's where the many years of playing the races and the lessons learned especially the "stay the course" belief came into play. The next race on the sheet was the co-featured Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint and Leinstar was my BET of the Week! The only thing working against him, I thought was that he'd not run since November. BUT, that had come AS THE FAVORITE in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and he was a sharp third (behind an upset winner who was MY top choice). Prior to that he'd won back-to-back graded turf sprints. Those three races had earned Beyer figures that would beat all 111 combined Beyers earned by the rest of the field! Was he ready? In his last three works, all on the inner course, he'd posted not one but two bullet works. So to me, yes, he was ready. He broke sharply but when two cheap speeds rushed up to engage him leaving him between horses, Luis Saez eased him off the pace. In a brief 5f turf sprint that's a bit of a gamble, but I was thinking at the time I'd rather be in the clear with the best horse than being forced to run between two rivals. Mid-way on the turn Saez put him in high gear and he set sail for the leader. That was the 5/1 second choice and he wasn't about to go down without a fight. But to be fair, Saez knew he didn't have to push Leinstar in an all-out effort. Up in time with a more convincing win than it seemed. My $40 play returned nearly $60.
Missed on the next two before it was time for another two-turn maiden special at the Fair Grounds. In the sixth I liked Sainthood. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was in town for several mounts and he had the call on this Todd Pletcher colt. In his debut he'd run sensational. Hopped at the start and was near the back, hustled into fourth and closed with a rush to be a just-miss second while well clear of the show colt who'd already come back to win! Here Velazquez hustled him to the front from the outside draw and was clear through the far turn. He began using the whip and I could tell that it wasn't to get him to run, it was to try and keep him from drifting wide. He did drift two or three paths wide and lost some ground and momentum. So much so that he got a challenge on the outside, but he resisted. But up the rail came the 5/2 second choice and he got in front by about half a length. That's that, no wait.... Sainthood would not give up and neither would Johnny V. Surging at the wire.....PHOTO FINISH!
OOOHHHHHH so close, but I got the bob, whooooo hooooo. The eighth from GP was next on the list and I was on the fence when analyzing the race because the horse that SHOULD win was Todd Pletcher's Black Magic Woman. But as scintillating as his last out victory had been, at today's one-turn mile trip, that WAS his maiden win. Hmmmm. Still, he probably was good enough to beat these. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione gave him a perfect trip, sitting just off the dueling front two. Glided past into the stretch and opened up by daylight. But my second choice was FLYING up the rail. I could tell immediately this was going to be close. They hit the wire together, PHOTO FINISH. Nearly identical to the just completed race at the Fair Grounds I really wasn't sure. Then the photo came up.....
That's right, WON THEM BOTH - how fortunate am I? Most of the time I'd answer you if asked about watching my weekly highlights, that you'd enjoy them if you like racing. But this week - MANY true highlight reel races that even the casual fan would truly enjoy. These last two exciting finishes among them! Missed the next four before it was time for the first of the stakes events at the Fair Grounds. The first was the Al Stall Memorial on the turf. My pick for the race had scratched and my original plan was to sit the race out. But watching the TVG broadcast hottie handicapper Gabby Gaudet interviewed trainer Al Stall, Jr. who's dad was the person the race was named for. He trained Dalika who'd won the Blushing KD two starts back when loose on the lead, but was a victim of a pace melt down last time to my top choice - who was also back today. But I liked how confident he seemed and that he said she'd really enjoy the rain-softened turf today. So I went back and re-examined the past performances of the runners left in the field and made the call - she'd be my double investment bet. I liked that she had run well on off-going and had not needed the lead to win. She sat a good trip to stretch, moved between runners to the front and edged clear. She paid nearly $6 and I collected almost $30.
Moments later it was time for Gulfstream's co-feature, the Grade 3 Gulfstream Sprint. On paper there was no beating Mischievous Alex and for most people playing the $7 Million Rainbow Pick 6, he was going to be their single. I just wasn't quite as confident as I was on the Leinstar race. First, he'd had his comeback race and had run lights out. Maybe he'd "run his race" and with bigger stakes down the road this would be a "bounce" race. Then, the field was narrowed to just four runners with scratches. Now the real possibility of a lone speed runner made his task more difficult. But still, after listening to all the analysis and re-examining the past performances. He either was clearly the best, or there wasn't a legitimate reason to go against him other than for "value." Things go a LOT easier when the one who might have wired the field hopped in the air at the start and was quickly eliminated from contention. No beating Mischievous Alex as he won for fun. I'd gone prime time and cashed for nearly $30.
I thought it interesting that on TVG they talked about a guy who'd invested $7,900 into the Rainbow Pick 6. Fortunately for him he went "ALL" in the first leg which was won by a 30/1 bomber. And heading into the last he was guaranteed to win because he'd gone "ALL" again. But he'd singled Mischievous Alex. Interesting when the ticket was later posted, he'd gone ALL - all but one - ALL - singled 'Alex - and ALL. As many people commented, that's NOT handicapping. That's having the resources to make a big bet. When he won the finale and cashed for $17,000 he'd made a nice profit, but boy, just that one slip by Alex and he'd have been dead in the water. On to the next race, which was my BEST of the Day on the loaded Fair Grounds card. It was my third BIG TIME play of the day as I really liked unbeaten Maxfield in the Grade 3 Mineshaft. Some questions had to be resolved as he had only been out four times and had yet to be beaten. He wasn't a class or speed figure standout, but I honestly felt like he'd never REALLY been asked for his best. Unbeaten at this mile and a sixteenth trip I thought he had every license to run huge. Tracked the leaders into the far turn, glided up to challenge and when set down in the long Fair Grounds' stretch he lengthened his stride and drew off powerfully. VERY well played Mr. Mark on not one but three BIG bets - not a common thing to do in an "online day" at the races.
I had time for one more race before heading out to the arena for the hockey game. The finale at Gulfstream was a maiden special on the turf and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott - who's barn has been on fire, seemed to have the obvious winner. Floriform showed one of my favorite angles with lightly raced runners on the turf. His first two tries, on the dirt had been good but he'd only earned Beyers of 40 and 55. When sent long on the turf last time out he'd exploded with an 83 Beyer in a just-miss second. Adding to the appeal was that number was the only one on the page that matched the par figure for this class. He was handled patiently on the rail into the stretch, waited for a seam, got a narrow opening and burst through. He truly only ran about 1/16th of a mile then was geared down as a much the best winner. I'd tripled the play and collected $30 for my winning pick.
We left for the hockey game and the two big races were yet to be run at the Fair Grounds - the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra for the fillies and the Grade 2 Risen Star for the colts - both carrying qualifying points for the first weekend in May in Louisville. As Keith and I approached the arena he asked how my day had gone at the races and I told him I was currently hitting 33% with two races left. I added that I thought I had a very good chance in the filly race and had a shot in the last race, so I felt pretty good about winning at least one of them. In between periods I pulled up the races on my phone. In the Rachel Alexandra Brad Cox sent out the very talented Travel Column. She was the even money favorite and tracked the pace into the stretch. Willingly opened up and seemed to have the race well in hand. And that, in retrospect I think was her downfall. The rider did not ask her to go all out to the wire and she was coasting. So in the final 100 yards when the second choice came flying with all the momentum it was too late, nailed on the wire. But I rebounded in the finale when another Brad Cox 3yo, Mandaloun went off at a generous 2/1. I liked him to win and when I saw Cox interviewed by hottie Gabby Gaudet and he seemed awfully confident I felt even better. Despite the wide draw in post eleven the Juddmonte colt got into a good tracking spot. Florent Geroux asked him to accelerate in the stretch and he burst clear. Ran strongly to the wire holding the closers at bay. Cashed for over $30 on my last bet and win of the day.
It was an EXCELLENT day with nearly 40% wins and multiple stakes scores, but most importantly, I nailed all three of my "Best Bets!"
Sunday February 14: Valentine's Day I felt like I would get at least a couple winners as the day started out, but was surprised when neither Ron Nicoletti or Acacia picked my "best bet" on top in the 9th race. After passing the opening two races (and in the 2nd I was spot on that the favorite in a four horse field had no chance for weak human connections - 2nd best). In the third I only went in for the minimum but turning for home it looked like Monte Ne the #7 would run away with it. Instead it was a photo finish and even the slow-mo showed clearly the #7 in front, but check the "official" photo compared to the freeze-frame:
Note how the rail is red to the finish line in real life, but in the "official" photo the red rail continues beyond the finish line.....that has always perplexed me and somehow I was NOT the winner. In the fourth I reminded Keith, who was watching with me at the time, about the time at Calder when we had a winner we'd have never picked had the "QSF" formula not pointed him out. And I told him here, in the fourth if you looked at the human connections (jockey just 7-for-114 and trainer who was 6-for-80 in all of 2020) you'd never pick Baby Lion. But THE HORSE, clearly looked best. He moved on the turn as they spun into the stretch and if you watch the highlight reel, he was probably the most impressive winner of the week, drawing off under wraps by nearly a dozen lengths.
Only had the minimum so I only cashed for a little less than $10, but another winner to the weekly total! My pick scratched out of the fifth and I passed. Both Ron and Acacia liked a horse they said would be a likely winner and I considered betting, but didn't. He won at 8/5. In the next, a maiden special for 3yo I could have easily made THIS the best of the day. Bold Agenda was a Todd Pletcher second time starter and when he debuted there were two Pletcher runners. The one with experience had faced next out stakes winner Dr. Post and I thought the experience was the difference. That Bold Agenda had been considered a win threat to that one was enough for me, as well as the big Pletcher numbers with second time maidens AND Irad up. He moved to the front turning for home but was way out in the middle of the track. He won, but it was closer than I thought it would be. Tripled the bet so cashed for almost $30.
The last win of the week came in the very next race. I Kickin looked best and he featured an angle that had made me a lot of money over the last couple years.....Victor Barboza first off the claim. Those win at nearly 40%. But THIS winter he's only winning at about 14% overall. Mixed feelings. But both the on air handicappers really liked him and he was getting pounded in all the pools so I upped the bet. Split horses in deep stretch and was much the best as anticipated. Cashed for close to $20. Missed with my best bet when third, and a Todd Pletcher 2nd time maiden on the turf in the finale was a just miss second.
Still, for the week it was an outstanding week of handicapping with over 40% at the tough GP meet and over 40% overall ins pite of only cashing a single ticket from the combined Aqueduct and Tampa cards on Saturday.
This coming week we'll be in Orlando on Saturday when the re-drawn Laurel Winter Sprintfest card goes. And on Sunday the cancelled triple stakes card at Oaklawn from President's Day will be run. And of course the Gulfstream races!
After back-to-back weekends AT Gulfstream, I was excited that this week I'd be off on a "road trip" with the boys to Tampa Bay Downs for their Tampa Bay Derby Preview Day. And I was happy that I would be travelling with my buddy Keith, but even more excited that my son Jeff would be joining us for the trip. As the week unfolded I found it "interesting" that two weeks ago for Pegasus Week I'd struggled through the week day cards then had a big day on track; last week I had a solid three days, then struggled ON track; and then this week I had single wins on the three week day cards leading up to the big road trip. And when I handicapped the Tampa card it was my impression that the card was pretty lean for finding runners with an advantage enough to bet. But because we would be there I relaxed my standards I thought. So much so that when we arrived at Tampa Bay Downs I told both Keith and Jeff that I had picks in nine of the races but didn't have a great deal of expectations on the day - no "prime time" bets but we were here......and at the end of the day I had SIX WINS! Gotta love racing! Here's how the week unfolded......
Gulfstream Park Championship - First Half: December 2020 / January 2021
I spent the first part of the week running the numbers for the first half of the meet and was happy to discover that (a) while I'd struggled through January at a lower ROI for the month, so too had both Ron Nicoletti of Gulfstream and Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form. So for the combined two months, I am still the reigning king of handicapping :)
Gulfstream Highlights Part 1
Wednesday February 3
After the 41% winning week last week, and the two month totals showing me as CLEARLY the handicapper to beat :) I was upbeat heading into the first day of racing. Ahhhh, racing is quite the humbling game as quickly I was returned to reality. I was much the best in the first race, a 3yo maiden claimer, except for a 5/1 first timer who came from a barn that was 1-for-29 at the meet and over the last two years had gone 0-for-15 with first time starters. WOW. Won the second play of the week, but with a minimum bet when Infatuating scored. I debated about playing the race because I am not a fan of 3yo claiming races at this time of the year, and even less a fan of last out maiden winners in those races. BUT.....Infatuating had been impressive and was the 7/5 morning line choice, AND both the online handicappers had her first. She appeared best, so I went in for the minimum. Had to duel through the lane, but proved to be a winner at 3/5.
But that was it. The 2/1 program choice in the sixth was cold on the board at 6/1 and ran like it - 6th; then ran 6th again at 3/1 when I just stopped. I "knew" I had a big chance in the feature and was the 6/5 favorite, but my pick showed little interest in running - fourth. And at even money in the finale I set a moderate pace and looked long gone until challenged. Then my horse simply said, "you gone on with it" and I finished a weakening third.
Thursday February 4
Certainly today would bring better results to "even out" the winning average. I liked Saffie Joseph's maiden in the opener, 4/1 and fourth when steadied leaving the gate. Todd Pletcher's Chao went off at 5/2 in the 3rd, another claiming event for sophomores, but rallying between horses proved to be only second best. Pressed to the turn with ANOTHER PLETCHER 3yo in a MSW, a Shadwell Stables well bred firster. Second choice at 5/2 I thought here we go and he stopped badly to be fifth. In the sixth I made the comment that I'd like Shop Girl a lot better if trainer Christophe Clement was NOT off to such a slow start here, posting a 22/1-4-3 mark to date. But I knew, having looked at the Tampa races, that he was winning at nearly a 40% clip there. Hmmmm, what to make of that - does he simply not have his better runners here? Bad luck? In the end I thought this speedy filly, who'd set the pace in a stakes last time out, looked best on paper in this entry level event and decided to go in for the minimum. When she took considerable early money AND was the pick in the double, Pick-3 and Pick-4 pools I decided to up the bet - considering what had happened yesterday with well-bet Infatuating. Broke right on top and never looked back.
Best of all, her price had floated up to almost 2/1 and I cashed for almost $30. NOW, here we go I thought. Sixth with an 8/1 longshot and then 3rd as the prohibitive 4/5 pick in the feature after breaking slowly (seems to be a theme at the meet) and weakening late. Another 1-win day.
Friday February 5
Let's build some momentum for tomorrow's big day, right? Not so much as it turned out. Didn't have a lot of confidence in the widely drawn favorite in the opener on the turf, but he did look best. A tepid 3/1 on the board led to an even fifth while the 8/1 first timer wired the field. In the 4th it was either Precocious Peach or Foxxy Belle who I thought would take this five furlong turf sprint for a mid-level $35K price tag. I went with the former by "a small margin" as I noted, based on the fact that she'd done more to date. The latter was a Saffie Joseph trainee and those usually improve when moving into his barn. But last time out, the first for him she'd not improved. Wrong choice as Foxxy Belle was much the best while I ran 2nd as the 8/5 second choice. The fifth was a similar dilemma between Berhanu and Beeboo. The former was CLEARLY for sale from the Todd Pletcher barn. Last time out for a $35K maiden 3yo event he'd been a just-miss favorite. Today he was all the way to the bottom for a $12.5K tag - but Irad Ortiz was on. So my thought was they WERE selling her, but only after getting another win for both as they sought repeat training and riding titles. Beeboo on the other hand was going for Brad Cox after back-to-back 3rd place finishes for $50K. Looked a LOT more like a "you can have him" move than a "let's win and get rid of them" move. The two went off as the top two choices and Berhanu tracked Beeboo into the stretch, then took off. Cashed for more than $25.
Again, I had two more "strong plays" so I thought I'd take off and finish with a good day. But, nope. Blocked all the way thru the turn in the sixth in a turf sprint while the winner circled the field clear of any trouble. Third at 9/5. And in the 9th I ran evenly at 5/2 with Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the Day.
Saturday February 6 Racing Road Trip: Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
What a great day! You can only relate to my day if you are a parent with grown children, and one of them shares a common interest / passion with you. To spend the day at the races with my oldest son was just THE BEST. Would not have made a difference to me if we'd run dead last with every single pick on the day (well, ok it was MORE enjoyable as we were all cashing tickets). To spend the day at the track was just great. I was very happy that we met Jeff halfway there from Fort Lauderdale so that he did about half the driving. And as I said, I honestly felt like some of the selections I had I'd stretched my normal standards (admitting that this is an esoteric "feeling" but still you have to make those decisions) for what was a horse with an edge to bet and which were not worth the money because we were going to be there. And probably part of that was because on the original twelve race card I had made four races "PASS" selections. But as we got started both the boys had different opinions in the opener, a cheap maiden claimer. My first comment in my analysis, which I shared with them was, "you have to decided just how badly you want to bet the first race...." But as I pointed out, while South House was the favorite, the other ten horses had "earned" Beyers in their last race of 0-17-0-34-0-0-24-33-31-and 25 while the chalk had earned three consecutive numbers of 39-37-38. The numbers rarely lie, even when they are pretty slow numbers. Pressed the pace for a half and took over as much the best. Only in for the minimum since it was such a cheap affair, but a win is a win my friend. In the opener at Gulfstream I ran third at a 5/1 with another Chad Brown disappointment. I thought I might have a good shot at an upset in Tampa's 2nd with 10/1 Cajun Delight. Bet down to 9/2 he took the lead into the lane and I thought I had it, but then the winner came to him....stretch duel....just missed, 2nd. Next up was my first added money bet, a Maiden Special for 3yo where I liked Christophe Clement's first timer for John Velazquez, Tough Tickets. Listed at 5/2 in the program the first flash of the board had her at 2/5. Even with Clement hitting at nearly 40% I just couldn't go in for more here. Tracked the leader to the top of the stretch, engaged him and edged clear to score in a sharp final time.
The fourth at Tampa was one of the "PASS" races so the next race at Gulfstream was a starter allowance going a mile and 3/8th around three turns. I thought Soglio was a legitimate upset threat at 6/1 in the program. Right away I knew I was on to something as the favorite was well back and I was in an excellent tracking spot in third, just a couple lengths off the front runner. As they hit the far turn he glided to the lead and turning for home opened up a daylight lead. At the furlong pole I "knew" I was hope free with a nice 5/1 winner. But inside the final 16th the favorite was absolutely flying.......they hit the wire together, PHOTO FINISH. I turned to Keith and Jeff and said, "The 1 held on, right." Pretty sure, Keith replied. The slow-mo replay came up and oooohhhhh, not so sure......
Nope. Sooooooo close. The first bet at Gulfstream and this one had come in a turf event - and my BET of the Day was in the Grade 3 feature on the turf - but as I came inside following the Tough Tickets score and looked up at the simulcast television, the Gulfstream broadcast was a dismal gray....obviously pouring down rain. Uh oh..... probably coming off the grass through the rest of the card. Next up was the fifth from Tampa where I liked Todd Pletcher's Unbridled Honor in a MSW for 3yo. It was a route going a shortened mile and 40 yards (a common distance at Tampa, but not at many other tracks) but I thought this colt would handle the trip being a son of multiple graded stakes winner Honor Code. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was up, in what's become a rare mount for Pletcher after being nearly inseparable for many years. Johnny V. tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, split horses, then ducked inside to get a clear run and edged clear for my third winner locally!
The fifth, which was coming up, was scheduled on the main, but still a few had scratched out leaving my top choice Augusta Melody being hammered at the windows. I checked the multi-race payouts and he was being equally hammered in those pools as well. I'd already made the minimum bet, but went back to the windows and got a second minimum play ticket. The class dropping favorite burst out of the gate and was never threatened, winning as Announcer Pete made the patented call, "...it's EAAASSSSYYYY Money....."
The sixth at Tampa saw my pick scratch and I just couldn't make a good enough case for my second choice to bet - glad I didn't as he didn't win. The BET of the Day was scheduled in the next, the fourth from Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Suwannee River going nine furlongs on the turf. But with the raining pouring down the field was reduced to only six runners, with my top pick being taken out. I looked up at the board and the second choice, a Chad Brown/Klaravich Stables runner with Irad Ortiz up was being absolutely pounded. I asked Keith to see his Racing Form and looked up the pp's of Great Island. He was lightly raced and had never run a bad race, but he'd never been on the main track. I turned to him and said, "Does this guy look like he should be odds-on?" He replied no, but he pointed out that at this point, heading into Race 6, GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti had ripped off five consecutive winners and this was his top choice. "Follow the money!" I decided, so I doubled the bet. And immediately out of the gate his nose went to the ground and he was dead last.
Another fan standing next to us said, "Well that figures" and we looked at each other, and Keith said, "Well for Nicoletti to win his sixth THAT horse is going to have to be M-U-C-H the best." Bad idea to bet the race I thought to myself. But then heading into the far turn Irad had Great Island on the move and he was picking off horses one by one and into contention heading into the stretch. But then he ran evenly for about a 16th of a mile and I knew he'd spent all his energy getting into contention, which is almost always the case when a horse breaks poorly. But then with a furlong to got he began to grind away and you could see that Ortiz would NOT give up on the win.....surging.....PHOTO FINISH!
OH SO CLOSE
But when the photo was posted, it was Great Island who'd scored! Another winner for Nicoletti - amazing, and I was relieved to be cashing the ticket. Even if I wasn't making a lot of money, it was good to have the winner in the feature.
The eighth at Tampa was a Maiden Special for 3yo sprinting six and a half furlongs. At the beginning of the day Jeff and I compared selections and he and I both liked #8 East Wing who was 5/1 in the program under top Tampa rider Antonio Gallardo. But I told him, "he's only my bet if he takes money in the win pool and/or in the multi-race wagering." After the prices were posted for the seventh, the first flash of the board of the board had him bet down to 5/2 favoritism. Well.....right in between what would make my mind up. He's the favorite and bet down - that's good - but he's not being hammered - so what does that mean? Checked the multi-race wagers and while he wasn't an overwhelming favorite, he was the clear betting choice. I decided I'd go in, but for only the minimum. By post time he'd floated up to 3/1. Broke smoothly and pressed the front runner through the far turn, then when asked responded readily to race away a clear winner - my FOURTH win on the Tampa card!
The seventh at Gulfstream was a MSW for 3yo with not one but TWO Todd Pletcher runners. Jockey Irad Ortiz was working on yet another multiple win day and was on the one Pletcher horse. But I had a better idea going with Saffie Joseph's first timer, a $600K sales grad. I lagged back while the Pletcher colt was up in time at a big 6/1 - would have been the "Day Maker" for me. Sigh.....every year I miss on more than one Pletcher price play. In the eighth, the first of the stakes at Tampa featured a Chad Brown lightly raced runner making his stakes debut, Greyes Creek. I'd had him both of his last two starts and wins and after the last one he made a national "horses to watch" list as they pointed out what I'd thought - this one was destined for a stakes win. Here it was. The wide post twelve didn't bother me because he was a big time closer. With John Velazquez up, who was having a big day, I felt very confident. But right out of the gate Velazquez put him pressing the leader in third while three wide. All the way to the far turn I kept thinking this would cost him the big late kick, unless Johnny V knew he was clearly on the best horse. Nope, I was right and he was wrong as Greyes Creek hung through the lane and finished fourth. Not happy. The eighth provided one of the best stories of the day and one of the lightest moments of the day. So heading into this race the three of us were now just infatuated with Ron Nicoletti's amazing run as he'd picked seven consecutive winners, and as Keith said, "How long can he keep going?" We looked up at the board and Keith pointed out he liked the rail runner in this allowance/optional claiming sprint. I flipped to my selection page and said, that with my turf pick out, this horse, Yodel E.A. Who was my "best" of the day. I asked Jeff to pull up the Nicoletti picks I'd sent him and he told me that this was also Nicoletti's Best, and I had Keith look in the Form because I was pretty sure that he was also Mike Welsch's Best Bet. He was. He tracked the speed to the turn, but the front runner seemed to put him away as they turned for home jockey Tyler Gaffalione had something left and when asked, Yodel E.A. Who spurted up the rail to a clear way and won going away. He went off at what I thought was a more-than-fair price of 6/5 considering he was BET of the Day for both online public handicappers. I turned to Keith and said, "You have that?" And he looked at me dejectedly and said, "Nicoletti on a roll, his best bet, but I've got a better idea." We all laughed as I headed off to cash my ticket for well over $30.
Quackity Quack Along The Railroad Track :)
Right back about fifteen minutes later with the second stakes event of the day, the Suncoast Stakes for 3yo fillies with points on the line for the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May. Curlin's Catch was 6/1 in the program and her speed figures did NOT pick her out. But I'd seen her break her maiden at Gulfstream. The $430K daughter of champion Curlin had debuted around two turns at Woodbine and was a good second. That was enough to encourage the connections to try a stakes race, as a maiden. Nope. Off the shelf she'd been entered in a one-turn mile MSW at Gulfstream and I'd made her my pick on the class drop. Not only did she win but she ran away and was visually a "WOW" winner. On the basis of what I saw I thought she'd be a legitimate pick here. When I had compared my picks to Jeff's earlier in the day he told me this was his best bet of the day. Went out to the rail to watch. She tracked the pace confidently in fourth to the head of the lane, split horses and burst into the clear drawing off with every stride.
I was disappointed that (a) I'd only bet the minimum and (b) she'd been the 9/5 favorite. But hey, still my FIFTH win of the day on an afternoon that I had not anticipated many wins, I was delighted. Later when talking with Jeff he was so disappointed in himself as he pulled out his paper with all his picks. He pointed out that after he'd started out on fire, cashing multiple tickets at big numbers, he'd decided he had a better idea than what he'd spent hours handicapping to find. He didn't bet Curlin's Catch - as his best bet. I've been there where I made adjustments at the track, and that next to never works out. It was a lesson hard learned for me to do my handicapping up front and stick to the plan. That's what works for me and allows me to play nearly every day. Missed in the 9th when Nicoletti hit his ninth and I tried to beat him with an MTO pick - third at 4/1. The Grade 3 Endevour Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf at Tampa was up next and it was my "Best" of the day there. Chad Brown's Counterparty Risk was being well bet, maybe overbet, but I thought she was clearly best. First and foremost, it's a graded turf stakes and it's Chad Brown....hello, duh. Klaravich Stables, one of his top clients - double duh. She had only been out three times but had shown immense promise. In her debut, in a turf sprint she was ok, but when sent around two turns in her second start she took off like a shot and won for fun. So impressed the connections they shipped her across the country to run in the Lady Shamrock Stakes at Santa Anita. She closed like a runaway freight train and was a just miss second, beaten a head. Coming off the shelf - a huge win angle for Brown - she had four good works and with Johnny V up I was pretty confident. He had her saving all the ground on the rail and as they began to spin out of the turn into the stretch Velazquez once again proved why he IS in the Hall of Fame. A wall of horses in front of him he waited patiently to see where to go rather than taking his inexperienced filly way wide and losing valuable ground. The front runner drifted out and the rail opened up like the parting of the Red Sea. Velasquez asked and Contemporary Risk responded immediately shooting through and burst to the front. The second choice had been tracking the leader and took the worst of the turn. She came on valiantly, but the ride was the difference as the favorite scored by a clear length.
I'd tripled the bet and cashed for nearly $30 on my SIXTH WIN of the day at Tampa. We had all agreed that after the final stakes, the featured Grade 3 Sam Davis for 3yo colts on the Derby trail, that we'd head out. That worked for me because I wasn't betting the last race locally and my final four plays could easily be made online. So as we waited for the Davis I opened my Xpressbet app on my phone and bet two races from Oaklawn and the co-feature at Gulfstream as well as the Santa Anita feature, the Grade 2 San Vicente. I went with Todd Pletcher's Known Agenda with Velazquez in the Tampa feature. Too far back and rallied too little too late at 3/2 to finish fifth. We were all three tired from the mental challenges of the day, the highs and lows, and sadly at our ages from being on our feet nearly all day. Again, I was so happy Jeff had offered to drive this leg of the trip. We talked for over two hours, sealing a most enjoyable day. One of the main topics, which we'd talked about many times during the day was the HUGE crowd at the track. To think at Gulfstream we cannot even go on a regular basis, but not only could you go ANY day here, but on this big stakes day, it was packed!
As we were on the first forty minutes of the trip I watched my races on my phone.....the wonders of technology!
I ran 2nd in the first selection from Oaklawn at 2/1 then 4th at 6/5 in their featured King Cotton Stakes. In the 11th from Gulfstream, the Ladies' Turf Sprint I was probably even more confident that Lady's Island was running on the main track today. In her last she'd upset the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl on the main track in a gutsy performance when holding on by the shortest nose at 9/2 as my top choice. She is ultra quick and I knew no one would run with her early, the question was would she be able to hold on. Right to the front, and even though she was tiring late, she was still clear under the wire.
A more than fair $4.40 payoff put more than $20 back into my account. Mention must be made of the day Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti had. Granted, he always hits a good percentage of wins, AND the majority of them are favorites and/or short prices. BUT.....yesterday he closed the day with a longshot winner at $24.60 and then rattled off NINE in a row today, and finished ten-for-twelve. I don't care what the price is.....nine in a row? Ten counting the last race yesterday......that's impressive.
The last race for me on this big day was the first of the 3yo races towards the Santa Anita Derby, with Derby points on the line....the 7 furlong Grade 2 San Vicente. I had not seen Bob Baffert's Concert Tour break his maiden but everything I read said that he could be something really special. In the pre-race analysis as I listened they pointed out he was on the same path as the ultra talented Nadal had been last year, and coming back in just three weeks was a short span from a big win. But I've seen Baffert do this before. He figures if they ARE as good as advertised they'll win on talent and the stiff test that will come from the short turnaround will really move them forward. Sent off at 2/5 he came to the leader, his stable mate, at the top of the lane. But instead of kicking away he was in a dog fight. They dueled to inside the final fifty yards before he prevailed with my triple investment on board. Exactly as Baffert probably would have scripted it.
So for the day, an amazing 11-for-22. And even though the boys at the beginning of the day had half-jokingly asked me "You got another odds-on favorite you're betting?" I finished the day at 50% winners and in the black, which something neither of them could say :) Just a really, REALLY great day.
Sunday February 7
After the big day, preceded by the 1-a-day first part of the week I wondered how the final day would go. Making it a little more interesting was that not only was it Super Bowl Sunday, but we had a 3pm hockey game so I'd only see the first bet live. I passed on the openers and in the second I went with Just Like Mike in a basement level one-turn mile maiden claimer. Last time at this same level and trip he'd burst to the front and was multiple lengths in front heading into the stretch but had gone too fast too soon and tired. But today he got Irad Ortiz to ride and I anticipated he'd sit just off the pace and make his move on the turn. EXACTLY as I thought and when he assumed command he opened up and won in a dominating fashion like a Breeders' Cup champion.
In the fifth I gave one last chance to Miasolomiah who seemed to have finally have found a field she could wire. But she was outsprinted early and was third. The fourth was a MSW for 3yo and there was only ONE Todd Pletcher runner. But he was off slowly and was a non-factor ninth. In the seventh we were going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf in an entry level allowance for three-year-olds. Jouster had been ultra impressive wiring his maiden rivals last time out and had earned a figure that was a pole faster than anyone else in here. But he was almost certainly to regress today facing winners, even if they were all just maiden winners like he was. Still, he appeared to be the one and only front runner in the field. I doubled the bet. When I pulled the race up on my phone at the hockey game during the second intermission he burst from the gate and was multiple lengths clear into the first turn. Then the odds came up at the bottom of the screen - a miniscule 1-9......I don't care how good you are, to be deserving of such short odds you better be a multiple Grade 1 winner with a huge advantage over your rivals. But as they hit the far turn he literally was almost heading for home when the rest of the field had entered the turn. I almost turned the phone to show Kim, but then I thought, "let's wait for the win and not jinx this".....sure enough he began to tire and a 30/1 longshot began making up ground with every stride. They hit the 16th pole and he was still clear but still all I could think was "Really, at 1/9 we're going to get caught?" But no, still clear under the wire. Won't make much money, but padding the stats is just fine with me.
After passing the eighth my "best" of the day came in the ninth which was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the Day. I too liked Bill Mott's Obligatory who had run fourth in her debut despite a troubled start. Mott is well known to NOT have them fully cranked at first asking. The swift morning workouts and that good debut told me this one was sitting on a win. Away near the back Jose Ortiz got her into high gear on the far turn and she inhaled the front runners in deep stretch to clear off as a solid winner.
I'd tripled the bet and cashed for over $40 on my third win of the day. The final winner of the day came in the very next race, the tenth and featured, a starter allowance sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs. Last time out I'd been hesitant to bet Reservenotattained who'd exploded in his previous to earn an enormous, out of character 92 Beyer when going wire to wire. A horse loose on the lead like that often earns an inflated figure that isn't "true," but I tagged along and he wired a $25K starter allowance in ultra impressive fashion earning an even bigger 99 figure. Could he run back to those today? And especially could he do it going an extra sixteenth AND facing pace pressure? I tagged along again because of the "go with the hot horse" theory. He was outsprinted to the front and I thought, "this could be trouble." But he looked comfortable tracking the pace into the turn. Looked ready to run but had no where to go. Uh oh, not only not able to get the lead but having to deal with traffic issues, this is REALLY not good. But maybe, just maybe he really is this good as he split rivals and wore down the front two to get to the wire first.
A four-win day to close out the week brought my statistics for the week back to where they always are..... 33% at Gulfstream and just over that overall.
Gulfstream Park Week 10 Highlights
Social Media
Two items of interest....first, our girl Jillian announced on Facebook that following her initial success with her first children's book she'd soon be releasing another one. I reached out to tell her how proud I was.
And on Sunday I was watching the "Morning Handicapping Show" from Gulfstream and in their "Lightning Round" of newsworthy events Acacia Courtney and Ron Nicoletti brought up the next big day for three-year-olds, the February 27th Fountain of Youth Day. I've begun to see promotions but nothing about tickets and fans being allowed. So I decided, you know since we're such close friends :) that I'd reach out to her. So I sent her a message that I'd been in Tampa with fans, could we come. Got answers back nearly right away.....gotta love social media!
I sent my message at 12:34, just after the morning handicapping show ended.....
