Week 3: Pre-Christmas Holidays

 December 16 - 20

I've said for many years, that the toughest meet to have success at is the winter Gulfstream Championship Meeting, and the reason for that is that so, SO many horses run here from so many different bases of operation with the best riders and trainers east of the Rocky Mountains.  Add in that even the ones who run second or third time out are often prepping for the major stakes races of the summer or kicking off what they hope to be a championship fall season.  But with all that as a preface, I've had a terrific start to the winter, including the best week yet this week.  From Wednesday December 16th through Sunday December 20th I scored at a huge $2.38 ROI for every $2 bet.  That surpasses last week's $2.25 ROI by more than ten cents on the dollar.  For those that haven't read the quote I base my handicapping success on, "they say" that if you can cash out at $1.91 to $2.00 for every $2 wagered, you are handicapping better than 93% of those at the track.  So you can see that for the past two weeks (and because of those weeks, for the entire meet), I am well above that achievement level.  So here is how the week unfolded.....

Wednesday December 16

The first day of the week proved to be a good one, once I got started.  Passed the opener as my top choice scored at 7/2; then ran 2nd when gaining ground late at 4/1.  I thought a Chad Brown class dropper on the turf looked really good as a likely favorite....went off at 4/1 and was a dismal eighth.  Finally a little after 2 pm I scored in the fourth.  Little Drama held enough of an edge in this 2yo maiden claiming sprint to warrant a wager.  First, I found it intriguing that GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti pointed out the horse had a "good race-bad race" pattern going and today SHOULD be the "good" one; second, I liked that after a best-of-the-rest second on debut his connections thought enough to put him in an FSS Stakes event - showed little.  Was also of interest that in each of his four starts, runners who'd finished in front of him came back to win.  And in the most recent race, the winner exited to win a stakes next time out.  Today, first time tagged for a rich $50K should do the trick I thought.  Tracked my third choice through a wicked :44 half and blew by nearing the top of the lane, then drew off at 7/5.

Passed the next THREE races, so it was after 4 pm when my next runner entered the starting gate.   The eighth was a starter optional claiming event for 2yo, and those are often difficult.  But what just leaped off the DRF past performance page was the statistic that trainer Danny Gargan wins at a huge 47% average with first off the claim runners from a 30-race sample.  In addition, top rider Luis Saez was winning at a 43% rate for the barn.  Now add in that their horse, Sunny Isle Beach looked to have the ideal style to track a hot pace, and he was the bet.  Exactly as I thought....tracked the leader into the stretch and wore him down on the wire to win as the 9/5 favorite.

The featured ninth race was a no-conditions allowance race that according to reports trainer Todd Pletcher was using as a prep for Social Paranoia to run in the Grade1 Pegasus World Cup Turf.  The 7 1/2 furlong distance of TODAY's race looked to suit this miler ideally.  Not so sure about the added ground he'll get in the Pegasus.  But for today.....he'd run three times here with two wins and a third to two future graded stakes stars.  He was a two-time winner at the distance with BOTH of them being Grade 3 events.  Coming off the shelf was no problem, and in fact if anything it added to his appeal:  in March 2019 he came off a layoff to romp HERE for fun to break his maiden; in March 2020 he came off the shelf to win the Grade 3 Appleton HERE.  Last angle, top rider Irad Ortiz had the call.  Either of his last two races at a flat mile - very much like this distance - earned triple digit Beyers and those were easy win numbers for today.  He rated kindly to the turn, swept up passing horses while wide, was fanned six or maybe seven wide into the lane.  He accelerated to collar the leader without being asked and edged clear through the final fifty yards - on to the Pegasus!

So I closed the first day down with a 3-for-5 resume and a nice flat bet profit.  Little did I know that the best was yet to come :)

Thursday December 17

Today was one of those days that (a) is why I love this game so much, and (b) proved yet again that it's all about playing the game level-headed to the end of the day...the week...the month....the season.  As the day opened I had six selections from the ten race card with a first post at 12:35 pm.  In the opener I tracked the pace as the 7/5 favorite in third then had no response, fourth.  Passed the second.  In the third I didn't like the even money favorite going for a barn that was merely 2-for-55 with turf sprinters.  I was the 8/5 2nd choice, rallied and was second best behind, yes the favorite.  In the fourth I was nearly certain I was the winner.....I had the 3/5 favorite in a field of only four runners.  FOURTH when I could not keep up.  Then ran a dismal 9th at 7/1 and passed the next race.  So here we are, it's past 3:30 in the afternoon, and I've been watching for four hours (counting the pre-show) and have nothing to show for it.  "Stay the course" I told myself.  In the seventh, a maiden special I had a Todd Pletcher runner and Arham tracked the leaders to the turn then took off easily....finally :)

Next up the ninth, and my final play of the day.  The first thing that caught my attention was that this was a starter optional claiming event going the unique distance of a mile and a half on the turf.  Was this race created just for a certain runner?  Secondly, the two "likely" win candidates had "issues" to overcome.  The program favorite looked good enough in and of himself, but the rider's 0-for-28 start to the season made me want to look elsewhere for a price.  I almost always take into account Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti's Best Bet, but Prince of Arabia - his best - was a 7-year-old with only four career wins from thirty-three starts and the last one (and only one showing on the page) had come in an OFF-the-turf event in May of 2018, ouch.  And so I landed on my UPSET SPECIAL of the week.  Yamato was a lightly raced son of champion Artie Schiller who had only been to the post five times and only three of those on turf.  He'd never gone farther than a mile and a sixteenth, but for some reason hot-riding jockey Luis Saez was riding.  Hmmmm.  Then really sealing the deal on the pick was that the program linemaker made him 4/1 in spite of all the evidence suggesting he would not or could not win here.  I thought coming out of shorter races Saez might try to steal it because there didn't seem to be a lot of pace in the race.  But when Yomato was away slowly, Saez allowed him to settle mid-pack through the fist seven furlongs.  Into the far turn he moved up willing, got to the leader at the top of the stretch and then BLEW BY!  Not 4/1 as in the program, but he'd been allowed to float up to better than 6/1 - whooooo hoooooo!

Cashed for almost $75 and suddenly, after going better than four hours with NOTHING to hang my hat on, I walk away an hour later with a 33% winning day and a BIG profit on the day.  Oh you gotta love racing :)

Friday December 18

This morning we left for Orlando and a Family Christmas weekend with all three of my children and their kids, my three grandsons.  We didn't have luck getting the three little ones in the family photo, but we got all the adults together, and it's been quite a while since we've had all three of our "kids" and their spouses in a group picture.  Added bonus that we got to have my adorable Mother-in-Law Peggy along for the photo-op.  I had handicapped the card (and Saturday & Sunday's for that matter) prior to our departure, so as we began to load the car I placed my wagers figuring I'd check them later in the day.  Late in the afternoon I was able to get online to watch the races.  The first nine events had already gone official when I logged on.  I had a pick in the opener.....a maiden claiming event on the turf for two-year-olds.  You could make cases for and against nearly all of them, but as I noted, ".....it IS Gulfstream during the winter, and this IS Todd Pletcher's playground...." so I went with My MIss Miracle who was 12/1 in the early DRF line but was posted at 7/2 in the program.  Jockey Luis Saez had her near the back to the backstretch then moved out into the clear four wide down the straight as he began picking off horses.  He passed the field on the turn, was SIX-wide turning for home and surged late.....it was a "photo finish" but I was pretty sure I'd won.  And the price, oh my......

That's right, better than 6/1 - AGAIN.  So in the last two races I've played this week I'd cashed for over $150.  YOU KNOW I'm going to have a good week, right?  Came right back in the second, another maiden claimer but this one was for older.  I thought I Got A Secret was the obvious choice, but the class plunge from a $40K event to this basement level $12.5K made it too big to go for more than the minimum investment.  As I noted, if he had any ability he'd win for fun.  Jockey Tyler G took him right to the front and he coasted wire to wire.

Passed the 3rd, missed in the 4th; passed two more and ran third twice then fifth in all the replay races.  It was about post time for the finale so I watched it live.  This was a two-lifetime claiming sprint and it provided a good example of the adage, "know your own race circuit."  Why?  Because under normal circumstances you'd look at Bird Map and say - WHOA, red flag city to back away.  Here was a filly that was claimed for a big $50K price tag in her maiden win....came back against WINNERS, also for a big $50K tag starter and was a just-miss second.  Now today off those two efforts, second off the claim she's in for a basement level $12.5K.  Uh oh.....FIRE SALE.  But owner Frank Calabrese, and especially with trainer Saffie Joseph do this ALL the time.  They are all about winning and if that's where she is most likely to win, that that's where they put here.  Lost to the claim, no problem they cut their losses and move on.  Their second place check first off the claim probably netted about $15K, pick up about that with a win today and if claimed away they cash out with over $40K and move on.  The big fifth-best of 110 works and jockey Edgard Zayas sealed the deal.  Tracked in third on the rail to the top of the lane, moved into the clear and won going away as MUCH the best.  Topped a third straight big day (3-for-7 and a profit of nearly $50).

Saturday December 19:  Super Santa Stakes Day at the Fair Grounds

Today I had the races running from both the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream as the family watched college football, and enjoyed social time together.  I wasn't as excited about the Saturday card locally as I'd been the last two weeks where I thought I had solid picks all day, and especially in the featured events.  Today I even had three races where I didn't have a betting choice - very unusual for a Saturday at Gulfstream during the Championship season.  Two things were notable about the Hallandale races for today......first, I was a best-of-the-rest 2nd twice where a win would have made the day much better.  A Todd Pletcher 2yo maiden was FLYING late but the 50/1 longshot front runner couldn't be caught; and in the co-featured Via Borghese Stakes I went with the "other" Pletcher runner.  I was flying late at 10/1 to be second behind his other entry.  But the good news locally is that my "best" of the day was a winner.  I'd seen Greyes Creek make her comeback from an extended layoff for Chad Brown at Churchill Downs and she'd been very impressive in winning at odds-on.  In her first try vs. winners at Keeneland she was hopelessly out of it at the top of the stretch, as my choice again, when she found another gear and FLEW home to win again.  Today, Brown looked to be making the logical next step before moving her into stakes company with another dynamic win.  I tripled the bet thinking she'd be around even money.  Instead she left the gate at 5/2 - and interestingly in the Rainbow Pick-6 which ended up going off with a jackpot of more than $6 Million, she was ignored by all three handicappers I checked.  I should have upped the bet.  She sat closer to the pace under regular pilot Tyler Gaffalione.  When asked with a mere flick of the wrists she won in hand without being asked.  Next stop, stakes race for this filly!

Meanwhile, at the Fair Grounds.....in the first race, a non-winners of two lifetime going two turns the odds-on favorite just looked way too good.  Only the had the minimum and survived an objection, but a win is a win.  Missed on the next non-stakes try.  Then I had two very VERY good picks in the two juvenile stakes on the card.  The first was the Letellier Memorial for two-year-old fillies.  Steve Asmussen's filly Joy's Rocket figured to be a very short price.  She'd been out five times and if you tossed the turf try (a good second in a Saratoga stakes) and the one-turn Grade 1 try, you were left with a perfect 3-for-3 sprinting record with two of those being stakes wins.  She looked too quick for these and looked long gone.  But she was outsprinted early.  Handled patiently to the turn, glided up to the leader, took over and dueled with the second choice to the 16th pole and then pulled clear.  With the win trainer Asmussen had won his 100th Fair Grounds stakes race.

I'd cashed for nearly $25 on my first stakes win on the day.  Missed in a 2nd level allowance before going PRIME TIME on Quick Tempo in the Sugar Bowl for two-year-old colts.  He looked even more solid than Joy's Rocket.  At first I thought I should cut back on the wager on her when I was handicapping, but then I thought, no....she is worth that and if he's even more solid you have to up the bet and so it was the "prime time" play I put on him.  Was a little encouraged when the Twin Spires Fair Grounds analyst made him his BEST BET of the day.  Right to the front and was long, LONG gone.  I thought the $3.60 payoff was generous and I cashed for nearly $40.

Missed at 9/2 when third in a turf sprint where my pick looked like the lone speed but couldn't get clear.  Really thought I'd won the Diliberto Memorial on the turn when Cross Border was FLYING to the wire and it was an official photo.  Even the slo-mo I was convinced I'd won....nope, second best.  In the Blushing K.D. trainer Brad Cox had multiple graded stakes placed Secret Message in this listed event obviously as a prep for bigger things down the line.  But she laid over the field.  Cruised up on the turn into the lane, but lacked the finishing punch and was only a close third.  And so we came to the evening's finale, the Tenacious Stakes which marked the return of unbeaten 3yo Maxfield.  He was already a multiple stakes winner and was exiting a sharp win in the Grade 3 Matt Winn.  Would he be sharp enough off the break, AND facing older for the first time.  Pressed to the top of the stretch and you could tell, jockey Florent Geroux was sitting on a horse ready to roll.  When asked he took off and was clearly best.

Finished the day an "ok" 5-for-17 and lost just a little.  Considering the way the week had gone so far, I was more than fine with that.  You can't reasonably hope to win all of them and have big winning days every day.

Sunday December 20

Today was our day to travel back was today, so like Friday I made the wagers in the morning and planned to check the replays upon arrival back home.  We left about 1 and were home by 4 pm.  So by the time we were unpacked and the computer was set-up I was able to watch the replays for the first five bets as it was about ten minutes before post time for the last two races.  Missed on all of them.  Fifth at 3/1 then 4th at 8/1 before a distant 7th at 9/2.  In the 6th I was FLYING late and it was a photo.  I thought I'd won, and even with the slo-mo replay I thought I was the winner.  Nope, second.  In the last replay there were two Todd Pletcher maiden special 2yo and I went with the Irad Ortiz ridden who went favored, only to chase the Luis Saez ridden one home, second again.  Live racing as they loaded into the gate The Virginian was getting hammered down to even money as the speed of this first level turf sprint.  Took the money showing as a good sign and upped the bet to a double investment.  Right to the front under Paco Lopez, clear into the lane, but then he began to tire.  Had to shift ground briefly when bothered on the outside, but gathered his stride as a closer came up the rail.....PHOTO FINISH.  Truly wasn't sure if I had won, and thought maybe no.....but he was declared the official winner!

That brought us to the finale, a non-winners of two lifetime turf event going a mile.  I felt very good about this one.  Didn't seriously consider upping the bet because it WAS a two-lifer and the top choice, Mr. Tip was in post 12....but he was the ONLY one who'd never been in for a tag nor in 2L company.  Looked to get the dream drip and I said so in my analysis.  I love winning races like this where not only do I cash, but the race unfolds exactly, EXACTLY as I saw it.  Won for fun.

Finished the week 15-for-42 and cleared over $75 for the week.  Gotta love the races.

Week 3 Highlights

My Social Life....

Well I must admit that the "social life" I journal about does seem to always revolve around nice looking women, but who can blame me for that :)  The first photo is of Brooke Shafer.  When she first appeared last fall as a reporter I told Kim "that girl is going to be an anchor" - why?  She has a very trusting delivery and seems to be talking directly to you.  And this week (Mon thru Wed) she was the morning anchor.  I reached out to her on Twitter and told her how much I enjoyed her and as you can see, she seemed very legitimately grateful.  Of course, I know she wants to be my best friend :)

My girl Jessica - was my favorite waitress at Ford's Garage while we stayed in Cape Coral.  I was delighted first that she agreed to be my Facebook friend, but even more so now that we communicate regularly.  Hoping we can get together in person sometime in the near future.

On Wednesday I reached out to GP hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney as I watched the pre-race analysis for the day and she immediately tweeted back.....always enjoy knowing that my messages are seen while they are on air and they respond WHILE on the air.

The weather girl for NBC-6 tweeted out did anyone have trips cancelled this year.  I replied and got an immediate response :)

When I worked at Cypress Bay I loved my boss, Mr. Scott Neely.  But one of the AP admins I loved was Kassandra.  She was in that position when I left.  When she took over upon Neely's retirement I texted her that she was one of the few I'd consider coming back to work for.  Not only is she so very attractive, but she's an excellent administrator.  So I reached out to her as the Christmas Break started and she wrote back - she always does; and she's always so friendly when we are at "The Bay" and run into her.

Jillian.....you don't need any description to know why any, ANY, A-N-Y time she reaches out to me I'll include her pic and the "conversation.