Gulfstream Park Championship Season: Week 2: Sugar Swirl Week

December 9 - 13: It Was A VERY Good Week

Wednesday December 9
Today was the start of the second week of the Championship Meet and it could NOT have gone any better! I didn't have a bet in the first or second, but in the third we were sprinting five furlongs on the turf with older maiden claimers. There looked to be a lot of early speed in here, but the way I saw the race flow was that Putman was the quick of the quick. He'd come off a break and run a sharp second here with a big Beyer figure. His pace figures put him on a clear lead, and that I thought, would discourage the other front runners. Given top jockey Luis Saez - who'd won SIX races last Saturday - was up, I thought he was a solid play. With the 5/2 morning line I anticipated he'd be either the second choice or the outright post time favorite. The race went exactly, EXACTLY as I'd anticipated. Putman got to the front, the other speed types couldn't go with him and quit, allowing him to roll around the track loose on the lead and wire the field impressively. But what I could not have anticipated was that somehow the crowd let him float up to 5/1 from his 5/2 morning line favoritism. Oh foolish people, I will gladly accept your money!

WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! Suddenly I'm cashing for over $60, but it gets better :) Right back in the fourth race we had two-year-old maiden specials going the demanding distance of seven furlongs. Despite the distance and the lack of experience I thought Orbs Baby Girl was a legitimate favorite. First, she'd already run the distance, and against strong NYRA foes. Second, she had the hot-riding Saez up. But most, MOST importantly in her two races she'd faced FAR superior fillies that she would see today I thought. In her debut she ran this seven furlongs in New York and was third - albeit a distant third - behind Todd Pletcher's very talented Curlin filly Malathaat who came right back to win the Tempted Stakes, then last Saturday won the Grade 2 Demoiselle. In 'Orb's second start she was fourth behind a filly named Miss Nondescript. That would not have meant much to me except I played the Laurel card last week and they had two juvenile stakes. The one for the fillies that I won, featured two runners who'd faced off against each other previously and Miss Nondescript won that stakes race. So here's a filly who's not only gone the distance, got the hot rider, but has faced not one but TWO stakes winners already. Right to the front, controlled the pace and won again! I'm two for two, but wait......check out the price, again!

I could not believe it that Orbs Baby Girl was 5/1 again, and she was 5-1 and change. Two for two and up over $120! It's going to be a good day no matter what happens from here on out :) Outrun in the 5th when I went along with Mike Welsch of the DRF on his "best" - just as a side note, I've found that my picks are better than his and especially my BEST are far superior to his.....he gets paid to do this, go figure! And the eighth was MY "best" of the day. War Stopper was listed as a short 7/5 favorite in the program and I thought he deserved every bit of a short price. Being a son of War Front you could understand why the previous connections thought he'd like the turf, but he hated it apparently. Moved to the main track he ran an "ok" fifth but the proof of how good that effort was in who he faced. The winner came right back to beat allowance company; the runner-up came back to break his maiden and then two races later he broke his maiden. And not only did the show colt come right back to win, he then won the Grade 2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. War Stopper broke cleanly in his next start and according to the DRF comments "sailed" around the track wiring the field. Moved into the Grade 3 Gotham with hopes of a Derby run he didn't compete well. Now off the long layoff, something new trainer Todd Pletcher excels with here at Gulfstream, he figured to be on or near the pace and run to his best. He was away from the gate a beat slowly, but quickly moved up to the front. He dueled with the favorite - my second choice - through the turn, then opened up and ran away impressively. Yes, you read that right, there was another colt who went favored as War Stopper floated all the way up to better than 5/2. My triple investment on my third winner of the day returned well over $50. Missed in the finale, but what a day..... 3-for-5 and a profit of more than $130.

Thursday December 10
In the opener, I explained in my analysis that it's not always about the horse and his ability, but it's about the horse and his ability RELATIVE to the rest of the field. Always Misbehaving, on his own wasn't a "good pick" or strong win candidate. But then you looked at the rest of the field and it was not hard to come to the conclusion that the rest of the field were very unlikely to win. While he'd been out six times without winning, the son of top sire Into Mischief had faced far better in those six races and trainer Danny Gargan had only let him run long one other time on the turf. He looked either MUCH the best on the class drop or an up the track vulnerable favorite. In relation to everyone else, I thought it was the former. Right to the front and was the easiest of winners.

Came right back in the second in a claiming event going six furlongs. I say it often, I would like to bet all the price plays - like yesterday - but it's about finding who I think is the most likely winner. And in here, like the opener, the short priced morning line favorite looked best. Markistan was getting Luis Saez and going first off the claim for the hot Ken Sweezy barn. Loved the 3yo filly's local record of 8/3-3-1. On the turn he looked to be spinning his wheels, but one of the things I most admire about jockey Luis Saez is he never, and I mean NEVER gives up riding his horse. He worked hard to get Markistan to be interest while fourth on the rail. Got him to pick up his feet enough to get into the clear as they turned for home, and at the furlong pole a light went on and he hit another gear. Did he have enough time? FLYING......PHOTO finish. As I watched the slo-mo replay I thought I won, but was far from sure. Indeed I did - and I'm two-for-two, just like yesterday (albeit at shorter prices today).

The rest of the day was disappointing as I missed on the three selections. On Friday the only win I had was a last minute decision. In the third my top choice scratched. Normally I do not like to go with my second choice, but I'd handicapped the Friday card on Wednesday morning and at the time jockey Tyler Gaffalione was on a 1-for-18 start to the meet. He was riding my second choice, Makisupa today and I might have been inclined to put that one on top if Tyler G were not so cold. Well, on Thursday he won four races, so when my top pick scratched out I went with Makisupa and he drove by through the final 16th of a mile to get me the lone winner on the day.

Saturday December 12: Sugar Swirl Day And Louisiana Champions Day at the Fair Grounds

In handicapping for Saturday I knew that my oldest son Jeff and his family would be here. But I also thought I'd "be at the races" most of the day. And with NINE stakes at the Fair Grounds and FIVE stakes at Gulfstream I considered just playing those two tracks. But in the end I decided to play selectively at Tampa, Laurel, and Aqueduct as well. I knew when I finished handicapping the Gulfstream card I knew that there were three or four selections that were not the most solid of plays and had it been any other track on any other day I probably would have passed them, but the angles were "good enough" for a Saturday at Gulfstream to add them to the list. In the end I probably should have passed them. When Jeff asked me at the end of the day how my racing day had gone, the best description I had was I did "ok" for the day. But even with the "just ok" way the day went, it was a great day of racing and was certainly an exciting day. Missed the opener at both Gulfstream and Tampa, but picked up my first win of the day at Gulfstream in their second, a Maiden Special for 2yo colts. This time of year, and at this meet especially on the weekends, you get to see some really special runners make their debut that go on to big things. This race looked to have more than one of those. But my analysis focused on two sons of champion Quality Road. The one that got top billing for me was Todd Pletcher's $900K sales grad, Prime Factor who was owned by WinStar Farms. He looked to have the typical Pletcher drills for an exciting debut and when all other things are equal at this time of year, here, you can't go wrong with the Pletcher runners. Two-time Eclipse-award winning rider Irad Ortiz was the rider. Usual go-to jockey Luis Saez was on the other Quality Road colt who was trained by Christophe Clement. When the field hit the far turn it was my top choice who'd tracked an 11/1 leader to the top of the lane and everyone else was distanced. When Ortiz said go, and he did for just a 16th of a mile the colt exploded to open up by a pole. He literally jogged the final furlong and he could be something really special. My thoughts were confirmed when later in the day his debut made national racing headlines.......

I came right back in the second at Aqueduct, which interestingly for the second Saturday in December it was a race on the turf. Scuttlebuzz figured to be the favorite in this maiden claimer as his two turf figures dwarfed those of the rest of the field and they were earned in MSW company! But when they were midway on the turn he was hopelessly in last....sigh....

BUT....jockey Joel Rosario is one of the best with closers (also one of the best at rating a horse on the front end) and he began to pick off horses entering the turn. Was spun at least seven wide entering the lane and the leader was easily four clear of the field and at least ten clear of Scuttlebuzz. I'll get a slice, but too little, too late. But in the final 16th of a mile he was F-L-Y-I-N-G.....

YOWZA! Only 4/5 and only had the minimum, but still it was one of THE most exciting races of the day. Capped off the three race win streak with an easy win at Laurel. I commented in the analysis that last Saturday the first win of the day had been odds-on and the easiest of winners, but hey - it's all about finding the winning horse - and So Dialed In looked LONG GONE on the front end to me. Right to the front, opened up by a pole into the turn and jogged home, the easiest of winners (albeit at a skimpy 1/5 price).

For the next two and a half hours my horses frustrated me with nearly all of them exhibiting the same flaw....they went to the back of the field, and not only the back, but W-A-Y back and their run came way too late as I ran third twice, and second once while failing to hit the board in two others. The sixth at Gulfstream was the co-featured Grade 3 Sugar Swirl going six furlongs. And the handicapping logic in here was similar to the winning angle in the opening race of the week with Putnam. There looked to be a lot, a LOT of speed in the field, and the so-called speed of the speed seemed to be on the favorite. But I liked Lady's Island in here......I'd had her last year in a listed event and was impressed. But the angle I drew on was in looking at her twelve running lines, she'd faced 88 fillies and none, zero of them had ever beaten her to the early lead, in fact NONE of them were within a length of her at the first call and only three of them were within a length and a half. Add in who I consider THE best front end rider in the game - in not overall, certainly at Gulfstream - in Emisael Jaramillo and I was CERTAIN she'd be in front. I figured, like Wednesday that would discourage all the other front runners and she'd coast wire to wire. Well, I was nearly right.....right to the front, easily in front by three or four lengths. She went awfully quick and she still was daylight in front turning for home after a blistering half mile in :44.2, but to the furlong pole no one was gaining. In that final furlong however there were not one but three closing in......this was going to be desperately close.....PHOTO FINISH! And before the photo was revealed, the INQUIRY & Objection signs went up against Lady's Island....

I was the unofficial winner in the photo, oh so close. They must have looked at the replay from every angle at least a dozen times each way and while you COULD make the case that Lady's Island drifted out, she didn't really cause any issues, and the bumping and course-changing seemed to have come from among the also-rans. Finally the announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen.....after the stewards have reviewed the replays there will be NO CHANGE in the order of finish!" WHOOOO HOOO, and Lady's Island had been a big 9/2 price so I cashed for well over $50!

Missed on the next two, one of them was a GP race I knew better than to bet. Then I scored in the second of the two Tampa Florida-sire stakes. In the first one my pick had been the 6/5 favorite and was one of "those" that was WAY too far back. Top rider Antonio Gallardo had Heiressall perfectly spotted in a tracking spot to the far turn. Asked him to run and he glided past, opened up and was an easy winner at a more-than-fair $5.80 price - I doubled the bet so cashed for almost $30.

Another five race skid....in two of them it was desperately close; once on the lead and just caught, the other flying down the middle of the track, JUST missed. That brought us to the eighth at the Fair Grounds, the Louisiana Champions Ladies' Turf. I was very inclined to pass it because even thought it was a stakes event, most of the field had run against each other several times and they had taken turns beating one another. I landed on Room To Finish who had been favored in this event but was beaten by one of today's rivals who was 12/1, and she'd been outfinished by that one again a couple of months later. But TODAY it looked like she would get the ideal set-up and would be able to close down the field. But with the way they'd taken turns, I wasn't confident enough to up the bet from the minimum. Midway through the turn she was held up behind horses, but jockey Adam Beschizza was smart in that he waited instead of circling six wide knowing the Fair Grounds stretch is abnormally long. He got close, then once they'd straightened he moved outside and wore down the leaders to win going away. Got a nice payoff even with the minimum play as Room To Finish paid a generous $6.60 to win.

Failed to score in the final two races at Gulfstream and didn't get a good ride in the La Champions Sprint. In the tenth in New Orleans it was the Louisiana Champions Juvenile. Sir Wellington was the top choice and I began my analysis by saying these were lightly raced juveniles and always a question with young horses in particular is when they come to a new track for the first time. True, Sir Wellington was making his first start at the Fair Grounds and he had only one win. But I was so impressed with his angles that I tripled the bet. The first bullet....his debut win and two losses had all been in OPEN company, so today he dropped into the state-bred ranks for the very first time. Second bullet.....after his debut win at Delaware he shipped to Laurel and ran a best-of-the-rest second in a stakes race! Add in that last weekend when I handicapped the Laurel juvenile stakes, the BEST of the Day that day at Laurel had been the juvenile winner Jaxon Traveler - that's who Sir Wellington was second to! Third bullet.....off that Laurel effort he ran in a stakes at Keeneland on Breeders' Cup weekend on the undercard. THAT winner was ultra impressive going wire to wire (as my pick). Fourth bullet.....the surface. Sir Wellington had posted a blistering, best-of-39 five furlong work locally in :59.3. Check, check, check and CHECK! Tracked the top two to the top of the lane, swung three wide and dueled for about a 16th of a mile, then opened up and won by daylight! I was content with the even money and cashed for $30 with my wager. Less than a half hour later it was time for my BET of the Day, and it too was in New Orleans. The Louisiana Champions Turf and Ninety-One Assault was well worth the prime-time play. He boasted a marvelous 6-for-9 record on the grass. And in his twelve past performance lines he only showed two state-bred events.....this race last winter, and the Dixie Poker Stakes, also here a month after the La Champions event. WON them both. Dating back over the last thirteen months his Beyers were so consistent - 86/85/87/86/87/86 - made even more remarkable that he always "runs his race" that he earned two of those winning those state-bred events and the others were earned trying in open stakes. Best of all regarding the Beyers.....of the 111 combined races on the page, only two numbers would beat any of those SIX. And both horses that had earned those competitive figures had been beaten by Ninety-One Assault; the figures were earned when they were in different barns than they were in now; AND they'd never run that fast again. He was off the pace through the far turn, began to pick up horses and then as they fanned seven across the track he found a seam, another horse to his outside ducked in and they pinballed for a stride or two - uh oh, that could cost us the race - but he got through and had clear run. With a sixteenth to go he was still grinding but I always thought he'd win....just looked like the winner and the rider was just hand riding him. Edged clear and won by a full length going away. And that was it for the day (the OBVIOUS 4/5 favorite in the Louisiana Champions Classic cruised to the 50/1 leader at the top of the stretch - yes, fifty to one - dueled and could not get by, losing by a nose)....eight wins on the day. It was an excellent day of exciting racing!

Sunday December 12

I can tell you that I did NOT purposefully handicap conservatively on Sunday, but maybe after being pretty lenient about playing all the races on Saturday and only winning two locally it was in my mind. Passed races 1 and 2; had bets in races 3-4-5 then passed two more. My fourth and final pick scratched out of the 8th, and no bets in races 9-10-or 11. In the opener my second choice won and paid $15 and change and in the second race my top pick won as the favorite. Of course when I bet the third I led to the stretch and weakened to be third. Sigh..... The fourth was another one of "those races" that was very satisfying, not just for the win, but because it played out EXACTLY as I thought it would. Well, maybe not quite the finish as I envisioned it :) There looked to be a lot of speed in this starter optional claiming turf sprint for two-year-olds. And unlike the previous races this week where I thought one had a distinct early advantage, these four or five looked to be knocking heads to the top of the stretch. And so it looked clear as can be to me that patient Can't Buy Love would sit the ideal trip under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. It was also a positive angle that of all the youngsters in here, he was the ONLY one that did NOT qualify for the starter conditions of having previously started for $25K, so he had to run for the required claiming tag. He sat fifth, in the perfect "garden spot" pocket to the top of the lane, spun five wide in the clear to reach contention and then gained with every stride on a stubborn pace survivor - PHOTO FINISH! I really thought he'd won, but it was desperately close for sure.

Came right back in the sixth, a maiden claiming event for juveniles. Very lightly raced maidens in for a mid-level $35K tag so couldn't get crazy nuts. BUT, trainer Georgina Baxter had all, and I mean A-L-L the numbers to make R Adios Jersey the pick, even though she was making her first career start. First, Baxter was a big 33% with all debut runners. But they won at a big $2.45 return for every $2 bet. And with maiden claimers making their debut she was winning a whopping 42% of the time with an outrageous $3.07 ROI for every $2 bet. WOW. 'Adios broke a step slowly, but Paco Lopez shot her to the front and before they'd covered the opening quarter mile she was daylight in front. I've seen Paco Lopez ride a LOT and I can tell when he's truly sitting chilly KNOWING he's the winner. As they hit the far turn I knew, I KNEW he was loaded and he'd never been challenged, nor had he asked his filly for her real run. Then he gave that patented "condescending look" under his shoulder as it was once described by the track announcer and I knew it was over - time to head to the virtual windows to cash! She walked by better than a pole and was geared down the length of the stretch.

So, on the abbreviated day of handicapping I finished an excellent 2-for-3 with another flat bet profit. For the week I had outstanding numbers......

As I completed the week's statistics I checked out my career totals.....I am just 39 wins away from hitting the 9,000 WIN mark - that's a LOT of races to have won :) Maybe this week with a good week, but almost certainly before Christmas time!

Gulfstream Week 2 Highlights