Week 13

February 20 - 23

It was a shortened, 4-day racing week due to the holiday card on Monday and it was a "different" week from my perspective, and from racing perspective.  This weekend there were no big races, none.  A couple of Gr 3 events but that was it and neither of those featured "big name" runners.  But, I thought it would be a good day to just enjoy racing because as I've often said, you don't need to pick the winner of a $1 Million Grade 1 event to make a good handicapping selection and/or get paid.  So here's how the week unfolded for me.....

Thursday February 20

Today's card provided seven investment opportunities from the ten races.  Which on a week day is kind of a high number.  The first was a 3yo maiden claimer on the turf and yes, there was a Todd Pletcher first time starter.  As post time approached I was amazed that he was getting next to no betting action.  So much so that I said to Kim as she walked through the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" (our family room!) I said to her, "....either everyone else is way off base here, and I'm going to make a big score, or I'm way off base....."  Turns out it was a big of both.  Rhythm Section left the gate at 7/1 odds and was patiently settled near the back until they reached the far turn.  Then jockey Luis Saez asked for run and he made "the move."  If you are a racing fan, you know what I'm talking about.  Sweeping by runners and was poised to blow by the front runner as they hit the top of the lane.  But, his inexperience saw him blow the turn and float some six or seven wide losing ground.  He re-broke and closed in on the leader approaching the furlong pole.  I could tell he WAS going to run right by.  But then his inexperience and greeness set in as he ducked sharply in and nearly brushed the front runner.  This temporarily knocked him off stride and he dropped back again.  Re-rallied and J-U-S-T missed....oh so close to a near $80+ score to start the week.

Todd Pletcher's 8-Rhythm Section (7.7-1) just misses

As it turned out that was close as I'd come until Race 9, in fact I didn't hit the board with ANY of my other selections.  But in the 9th, an entry level allowance sprint going six furlongs.  These often are very difficult to predict and if you didn't like the favorite, Flat Awesome Jenny this one would be as well.  She'd run in a claiming event two back and had gone last to first to win going away at today's sprint distance.  I was impressed by the new career top Beyer AND by the fact that the fractions had NOT been that hot, yet she blew by like they were standing still.  Claimed by trainer Kelly Breen he put her in a starter allowance, where she couldn't be claimed.  Repeated the rallying victory again to score by daylight with another new career top speed figure.  She looked primed for another big effort and that was helped, in my opinion by the fact that the rest of the field - especially the pace setters - looked to be sketchy at best.  She was a little closer today, 5th of eight and only a few lengths off the leaders until they reached the top of the lane.  Jockey Paco Lopez shook the reins and she was gone, drawing off by daylight without really being asked for her very best.  All things considered, I thought the 9/5 price was generous and I cashed on my lone win of the day for nearly $30.

Friday February 21

Today's highlights were two-fold.  First, from a non-racing perspective, our good friend Michelle had come to town and wanted to hook up with us.  I was oh-so-happy that the time that worked best for her on her weekend visit was this afternoon/evening rather than tomorrow when I'd be gone at the races.  Kim went to pick her up on the east side of town, then picked me up and we went out to eat at the Yardhouse restaurant at the Sawgrass Mills Mall before heading to Cypress Bay High School for the state-semifinal girls soccer game.  The weather had turned very blustery and frankly cold by the time late afternoon arrived and I had a hooded sweatshirt for the game.  Michelle, coming from North Carolina to FLORIDA for the weekend wasn't expecting the brisk weather so she borrowed not one but two light-weight jackets from Kim and as we sat on the top row of the bleachers the three of us cuddled together for warmth.  Have to mention that my wife gave Michelle all kinds of grief for wearing the two tops in "backwards" order (yellow jacket under the blue, Cypress Bay wind breaker,) but I thought it was just the right color combination.  Too cold to stay we left at halftime (the girls won to advance to the state championship next week!) and we drove her back home.  Such a cutie, wish she lived closer.

But back to racing results.... I found the way the day unfolded so, "ironic" I guess would be the way I'd describe it.  First post was at 1 pm and I had seven picks originally.  But with all the weather I lost my pick in the fourth and my top choice in the eighth.  So as I sat there working on Saturday's card I watched as from 1 pm until 5 pm I either did not win or didn't have a bet.  It was a long four hours of racing - glad I wasn't at the races today at least.  Three times I finished fourth and once I was third.  Just close enough to give me faint hope, but never really thought I'd win.  The eighth race was over and the horses were in the paddock for the ninth when Michelle arrived.  My top pick for the race was the "Main Track Only" choice, a Saffie Joseph trainee, Flora Fantasy.  I mention this because this will become a runner you'll hear more about later.  It was a turf sprint and the race was one of the few that was kept on the grass.  The field walked onto the track as we left for dinner.  So as Kim drove us to the restaurant I pulled up the race on my phone.  Catharsis had run poorly in his last.  But I was willing to forgive that because (a) he was coming off a layoff and (b) it was against $35K OPEN rivals.  Today he was in a state-bred $20K allowance-optional claimer.  If he ran back to his prior races he'd be much the best.  Oh how I wish I'd at least doubled the bet!  He sat third to the stretch, moved three wide and drew off.  Paid a HUGE $11.60.  Was happy to collect the nearly $30 for a minimum bet, but would have been oh so sweet to have had nearly $60 in my account.

Towards the middle of our dinner I pulled up the last race on the day on my phone.  The day's finale was a 3yo maiden claiming event on the turf going a mile with a $25K price tag.  There wasn't a lot to choose from, but one of the more predictable angles in handicapping is when a thoroughbred runs "paired" figures.  That very often is indicative of a move forward and today Gea had done that.  As I said in my analysis, a 50 Beyer won't win any stakes races, but the fact that she'd paired these numbers and that both would beat thirty-three of the combined thirty-five figures earned by the rest of the field was a strong indicator of a win candidate.  Add in top rider Irad Ortiz was taking the mount and you can see why I put my money on her.  She broke from the rail and was quickly tenth of twelve into the first turn.  Ortiz asked for run approaching the far turn and she began picking off runners.  Three-to-five wide into the stretch she lengthened her stride and drew off to kick clear by daylight.  Much like Catharsis I was pleased that somehow she'd been allowed to leave the gate at what I thought was a generous 5/2 price.  Cashed for $35.  And suddenly, after spending the entire day getting nothing for my handicapping, in a span of about forty minutes the day had become a good 33% winning one with a flat bet profit. 

Saturday February 22

Today was THE most unusual day of the week for racing results.  As I handicapped for the Saturday at the races I had several factors to consider.  First, there wasn't a single racing venue that was having a "big stakes" day, so I'd be playing largely maiden, claiming, and allowance events - typically a little less predictable and lacking a "prime time" bet; second, the weather for South Florida was not only supposed to be chilly as it had been on Friday evening, but the forecast called for a "40% chance of passing showers throughout the day."  What to wear?  I know, that sounds so trivial but if I'm going to be spending the day outside, that's important.  Seemed like it would be coolish with a good breeze so I planned on a sweater.  But Friday night it was really COLD.  Maybe a sweatshirt and/or jacket.  Saturday morning it was gloomy and rainy, so maybe toss that idea, I need to wear my Breeders' Cup weatherproof jacket.  An hour later it was mostly clear skies, sunny and actually warm.  Put the jacket away, got out a polo shirt.  An hour later it was overcast, cool, and very breezy.  Opted for the original idea of a sweater with long-sleeve t-shirt and took my hat just in case it was raining.  I left for Gulfstream about 10:45 and right away it was drizzling.  By the time I got to the Interstate it was a full-out rain.  All the way to within a couple of miles of Gulfstream, then the skies opened up and the sun came out.  Didn't rain a drop at the track, but it was partly-to-mostly cloudy and a good breeze.  Very "chilly" for a Florida boy, especially in the shade, so I was glad I opted for the sweater.  When I went to leave, within a mile of Gulfstream it started raining again and rained all the way to within about five miles of home.  Go figure.  Now - you can see what I'm wearing in the Facebook post.  Note the caption.....how ironic as it turns out.  Why?  As it turns out, after the day's results were in the "Racing action from coast to coast" was most prophetic because even though it's the Gulfstream Winter Championship Meet that I love to be at and bet on, I cashed a single solitary ticket at Gulfstream....but I had a near-40% winning day because of my success out of town!  I had handicapped the racing cards from Tampa Bay Downs, from Laurel Park in Maryland, the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, and from Aqueduct in New York.  I also had two late-afternoon bets from Santa Anita.  I tried to be "picky" in the selections from out of town, but I was also cognizant that today was NOT going to be a day where I found a lot of strong plays.  Didn't cash a ticket in New Orleans, but I only had two plays, and also lost both bets at Santa Anita despite both being odds-on favorites.  The other tracks were most fruitful:

So here is how the day unfolded......my top choice in the opener at Gulfstream scratched.  In the second race we were off the turf but my pick had run super last time out in an off-the-turf event.  He was sent off as the 9/5 choice and he looked to come rolling from the back of the pack.  Sure enough through the first quarter mile he was last, but not an extraordinary distance back.  Began to swallow up ground until a 30/1 outsider shifted in on him and he had to check sharply losing at least half a dozen lengths with only a half mile to go.  No chance.  Was absolutely flying late to be second - would have won for fun, but not today.  In the third there were two Todd Pletcher first time starters.  I liked Ellis Island but he was NOT being well bet.  The other was odds-on and I briefly considered making a change in bets and/or betting them both.  But I finally decided to stick with what I had originally planned.  Came FLYING late to be a sharp third at 5/1 odds while the odds-on Pletcher horse was life and death to hold on.  Missed with my fourth selection at Aqueduct when my choice ran 3rd at 5/2.  I was "ok" with that because the winner was 2/5 and I'd NEVER have bet him as a 12x maiden.  The third at Laurel was next up.  John Jones had a lot to like about him and was one of the Laurel analyst's best bet.  First, he was a "Horse for the Course" with a 9-for-26 record at Laurel.  Then, and I get it you can make numbers say "anything," but filtering out by distance, 'John was 9-for-16 at this mile trip and 0-for-10 at all other distances at Laurel.  And he was just 2-for-16 at all other race tracks.  So for John Jones AT Laurel, AT one mile - that is where he wins.  Add in that he was dropping out of a stakes race when best-of-the-rest second behind a multiple stakes winning horse who had earned a 102 Beyer with the win AND had come back to win another stakes last weekend.  John Jones pressed the pace and forged to the front into the lane.  But the Laurel stretch seems to go on forever and a price horse was coming.........where's the wire?  HOLDS ON!

The best news on the first winner of the day, somehow in spite of all the angles listed above, he went off at more than 2/1.  The $6.40 payoff meant that in spite of starting the day 1-for-4 I was back to nearly even :)  About ten minutes later I was in my seat for the fourth at Gulfstream.  This was a Maiden Special for 3yo on the turf.  As I scanned the field here's what I thought:  First, the first time starters did not appeal and didn't have connections that would make them appealing.  Of the five others, four had run nearly identical Beyer figures:  71, 71, 73, and 73.  How to separate them?  There WAS a Todd Pletcher runner, but it bothered me that NONE of the regular go-to riders had agreed to ride him.  Risky, but I'll pass.  The likely favorite had finished a sharp third in his debut, then last time out was 2nd beaten merely a nose.  But today he was adding blinkers.  WHAT?  Why would you make an equipment change on a lightly raced horse who's obviously running well.  Put that with his outside draw and he was also a pass.  Of the other two I liked the Chad Brown runner, Vintage Print.  The "issue" was that he'd never been on the turf and he'd run poorly on dirt last time.  Brown is well known for his work with turf runners, why didn't this one start on turf?  Still, considering who the others were and what they brought to the table that was my pick.  I was surprised that throughout the betting he hovered around 7/1.  Am I that off?  Again I considered changing, but thought, "No, I was 'right' about the price Pletcher horse even though he didn't win."  Stuck with it.  The newly-blinkered favorite got over quickly and was the pace setter, but Vintage Print was in a close stalking position.  Right away I thought, if he's good enough he will have a good chance.  Came a little wide into the lane but at the furlong pole you could tell I had all the momentum and edged clear through the final 16th.  The final odds, 5/1 and I'd doubled the bet!

Cashing "the big one" at Gulfstream today

First win at Gulfstream and I'm cashing for $60, whooo hooo.  I ran 2nd and 3rd at the Fair Grounds and Tampa before it was time for Race 5 at Laurel.  When I look at a race I scan through the past performances and what I'm looking for are the best Beyer figures, horses on the drop, and runners with strong human connections.  After the first run through I'm hoping I have a good idea of who SHOULD be the favorite and if they are a logical winner, a play against, or an "I can't figure" which would lead to a pass of the race.  In this starter-optional claiming event the two program favorites were OBVIOUS "no bets" for me.  The favorite had not been seen since April and the barn was 0-for-11 with long layoffs and the program second choice was 1-for-18 at Laurel with two seconds and eight thirds....he obviously doesn't like to win.  Then there was Bullets Child.  He was lightly raced with only three starts.  He'd been a best-of-the-rest 2nd in debut, clear of the show by nearly a dozen lengths and earned a strong 72 Beyer.  Came right back to break his maiden for $50K.  Then he was 2nd beaten half a length in his first against winners while daylight clear of the show.  I could see how someone would be hesitant because he too came off a long layoff.  But unlike the other one, the barn was a sharp 20% with layoff runners AND Bullets Child had worked multiple bullet workouts for his return.  AND he was listed at 6/1 in the program.  That's for me.  Right to the front and wired the field!

The 3/1 price paid $8.80 and I'd cash for almost $45.  I had collected the payout on John Jones when making the next sequence of bets so now I'd cash the Vintage Print ticket and this one for over $100 on these two wins alone :)  My next came at Tampa where it was an entry level allowance event on the turf.  Again, I could see why you'd not like Serve The King who had only one race, a debut win with a big number.  BUT, that number beat everything anyone else had earned, and it had been over this course back in December.  Most important, 'King was trained by Chad Brown.  Oh.  Given plenty of time to recoup and getting top local jockey Antonio Gallardo he looked best.  Rallied on the turn and swept by in the final furlong to win going away at even money.  And right back moments later with the first of four consecutive wins in New York when Bertranda wired a claiming event.  Missed on the next four before the very next race on the Aqueduct card which was a non-winners of two lifetime event.  You COULD NOT have a lot of confidence in Septimius Severus as he was plunging in class for this, but the other in the field looked worse.  Top rider Manny Franco took the call and that made me feel better.  Wired the field and paid a nice $6.60 so even with a minimum bet I cashed for over $15.  Missed AGAIN at Gulfstream then it was time for the next at Aqueduct.  Jerry The Nipper was a Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden.  In his debut he had chased a loose-on-the-lead winner who aired by daylight.  But, 'Jerry was five lengths in front of the rest of the field, and the stretch to a one-turn mile seemed to be in his benefit.  He dueled on the lead with the other well-bet horse then had a lot left in reserve as he drew off by over half a dozen lengths.

My "best" of the day at Gulfstream, and EVERYONE's BEST of the Day came in the featured Grade 3 World of Trouble Sprint.  Lasting Legacy had last been seen when a best-of-the-rest 2nd in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector behind a horse who'd been a Breeders' Cup contender in November.  But what made him the obvious choice was that of the 144 combined races run by the rest of the field, there was one triple digit number (and that had been earned in Sept 2018).....Lasting Legacy had posted back-to-back-to-back triple digits.  Duh.  The gates opened and immediately the 4/5 favorite hopped in the air and spotted the field well over half a dozen lengths.  Sigh....even with a horse that's daylight better than the rest AND a finisher, that's a lot to ask.  Was flying late and got fourth - WOULD have won for fun.  Sigh.....  Next up was the eighth from Tampa, the Lightning City Stakes.  I had bet Girls Know Best in her last two and she'd run second both times, but today I thought she'd get loose on the front end even though she was facing the filly who'd run her down last time, Jean Elizabeth.  But my pick scratched.  I looked at the field and payoffs and it seemed obvious that this race went strictly through Jean Elizabeth now.  Held my double investment level and put it on that filly.  Right to the front and won as the favorite - well done Mr. Mark!

I thought for SURE I had the winner in Gulfstream's 10th as Todd Pletcher's Largent was running in an allowance field on the turf.  Analyst Jason Blewitt, who also picked him had said he had been surprised this impressive colt had not been entered in a Grade 3 last weekend.  Had the lead at even money turning for home but was outfinished in a photo by a 30/1 longshot.  Wow.  Look at the past performances for Mr. Buff, entered in the featured Haynesfield Stakes at Aqueduct:

A most obvious choice.  Toss the three filtered graded tries and he's 8-for-9 with a loss by 3/4 of a length.  Now consider that his "paired" figures of 100-101 in his last two - in and of themselves indicative of a move forward - were better than the combined 107 race figures earned by his rivals.  AND he features a local record of 7-for-11.  Oh.  Right to the front and seemed to be in hand when he had about a length lead midway on the turn.  Then he lengthened his stride.....

Yowza.  If you're going to bet a horse at 1/5 (and to be fair, I could care less about the price, I bet the winner of the race....or at least who I think will win), that's the kind of result you're expecting.  Lost the final three plays, two of them at Santa Anita.  Exalted had run 2nd to Bob Baffert's Nadal who had returned to win the Grade 2 San Vicente.  He was 4/5 but had nothing left in the lane, third.  And Brad Free's BEST at Santa Anita was Jolie Olimpica in the Grade 3 Buena Vista.  The unbeaten filly had earned a number in her North American debut that was double digits faster than anything anyone else had earned.  And that had come at a distance she probably didn't like as well as today's one mile trip.  LONG gone I thought.  And 1-2 odds were fair.  Caught on the wire by a runner nearly 40/1.  Wow.  Still, for the day I finished 9-for-25 (36%) and had a great day (and was comfortable in my chosen attire!)

February 22 Racing Highlights

Sunday February 23
As the final day of the short racing week opened I had seven selections on the eleven race card, with one of them being a "prime time" play, the "Bet of the Weekend."  The one thing you could say about the card in general was that there were a LOT of future stars starting today in maiden races as all the 3yo maiden special events seems to have multiple big-time quality thoroughbreds.  The opener drew the comment in my analysis that IF there wasn't a Todd Pletcher runner in the field - because it's the Championship Meet - I'd probably pass the race.  I went with Cat Lady despite the post 11 draw.  She WOULD have won in spite of that, but heading into the first turn where she probably would have been three-four wide, she was bumped hard by a 7/1 outsider who finished eighth.  So much of a bump that it not only knocked her into the six path but jockey Irad Ortiz lost his iron for several strides.  To his credit he recovered, got her into position and made a good run of it to lose by a mere half a length.  Easily the winner without that trouble.  My "BEST" was in the third, but my pick scratched.  "Everyone" liked the obvious second choice but I didn't.... it was a most remarkable race because that favorite missed the start by nearly half a dozen lengths then was checked sharply, taking up into the stretch.  Still, switched out and ran by them all.  AND this was in a five furlong turf sprint.  Just an amazing run by the winner.  Hats off to her.  In the fourth, it was another of the maiden 3yo races and this turf event had not one but two Chad Brown firsters.  I didn't like any of the ones with experience but they ran 1-2.  I was third, the "other Brown" filly was fourth.  Passed the fifth.  In the sixth it was another quality collection of three-year-old maiden fillies and again two Chad Brown runners I liked Linny Kate in spite of the eleven post.  Irad Ortiz looked hopeless beaten at the furlong pole in fourth after rallying to get that close, but once in the clear she found another gear and was up in time at a nice $8.80 payoff.

I was irritated (a) that I only had the minimum play on her but more so that (b) of ALL the winners today this one, Linny Kate was the ONLY one who's winning photo was not posted anywhere.  How is THAT possible? Finished in the money in the next two races and then it was time for my final bet of the day.  Remember on Friday my "best" of the day was Saffie Joseph's Flora Fantasy who was a "Main Track Only?"  When that stayed on the turf he entered him in this entry level allowance sprint.  All the same angles applied, most especially that he was first off the claim, a 41% winning move for the barn.  When he was in the back, but only five off the front I wasn't worried because I've seen many Saffie Joseph runners come flying late.  Sure enough he moved wide on the turn under top rider Irad Ortiz and won going away for fun.  Best part.....I'd upped the bet to make HIM the "prime time" play of the day.  Whooo hooo - another winning day as I finished 2-for-6 with a flat bet profit.

Next week my buddy Keith (and his niece or nieces) will be in town for the big weekend of racing - it's Fountain of Youth Day, the final step on the road to the Florida Derby!

Valentines/Pres Day Week

February 12 - 17

Well it should tell you something about the week that this Saturday was Louisiana Derby Preview Day with a stakes laden card and that did NOT make the headlines for this week.  As handicapping weeks go, this was one of the least successful of the winter.  I had forty-four selections over the six day racing week and only had nine wins.  Ouch.  The good news is that I DID win the BEST Bet of the week, and even better news is that I KNOW as sure as I'm sitting here that by the end of the month or at least the winter season I'll have a run of high win percentage success which will even my overall win percent back to the consistent 35% plus level.

Wednesday-Thursday-Friday (Valentines Day)

On Wednesday I had four selections and I was close, but had nothing to show for it.  Ran 2nd twice, third and fourth.  Thursday rolled around and I was sure today my numbers would bounce back.  But as the fortunes of racing would have it I ran fourth twice, third, and did get the first win of the week... but that came with the smallest bet of the day with a 9/5 favorite.  But hey, a win is a win.

Friday, Valentines Day saw Kim and I headed out for Orlando to be able to reach Oliver's school in time for a Valentines Cookie Decorating Party.  So I made my bets before we left and checked the results later.  The "Little Man" was so excited to see his Grandma & Grandpa.  Decorated cookies with his Mom along and then headed back to his house for an afternoon of play.

Later that afternoon I was able to watch my BEST BET run live from Tampa.  The sixth from Tampa featured Todd Pletcher's Gouverneur Morris.  To be fair, I'd not heard of this 3yo colt before reading about him online earlier in the week.  He'd broken his maiden in sensational style in his August debut at Saratoga then came back to run 2nd to Maxfield in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland.  Maxfield had been one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile before having to scratch the week of the race.  In the article I read the connections had wanted to begin the 3yo season with a race in allowance company at Gulfstream, but when it didn't fill they contacted Tampa and they carded this race around two turns at one-mile-and-forty-yards.  As I opened the live feed with seven minutes to post time Gouverneur Morris was the prohibitive 1/9 favorite.  In just a five horse field I expected as much and I thought that if I could get 1/5 it would be a fair bet.  Because the connections had further said that if he ran to expectations today they would look for one of the big, final Derby preps that offered 100 points and an automatic spot in the Kentucky Derby.  Somehow as the horses moved to the gate my best bet had his odds not only float to 1/5, but then to 2/5 and then remarkably to 1/2.  Are you serious?  I know it's a horse race but there's no way, especially in a five horse field, that he should pay $3.  Right out of the gate one of the colts stumbled and lost the rider.  Little did I know that the strategy for Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez had been to stalk THAT one, who was the likely pace-setter.  Now it was time to improvise.  Rather than let the second choice get loose on the lead Velazquez got his colt into a pressing position on the outside.  He had to ask him to run on the turn but when he leveled off he drew off with authority.  As he crossed the line the track announcer called out that the final time was just .02 off the track record.  WOWZA!  Cashing for $30 on the BET of the Week was indeed one of the highlights of the week.

I also got a winner at Gulfstream when in the eighth race with Frank's Legacy.  Under normal circumstances a handicapper would be suspicious when a horse like this was exiting a win for $16K and was claimed, only to be entered first off the claim for $12.5K.  But owner Frank Calabrese, along with trainer Saffie Joseph are "famous" for this kind of move.  They spot their horses where they can win, and if they lose them via the claim, they just go get another one.  And if you did the math here, this was a smart move.  A win would earn $15K, and if he's claimed for $12.5K that generates an income of $27.5K for an investment of $16K.  Duh.  Frank's Legacy tracked the leader to the lane, got his head in front then outfinished him to the wire.

Saturday February 15:  Disney Day

I made my bets for both Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds this morning because after Oliver got up from his nap we set out for Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom.  We were there for almost five hours and enjoyed the time with the grandson oh-so-much (and with his Mom & Dad).  Once we got home I pulled up the races and watched the replays, hopeful for a big day at the races.  For a Saturday I found the card at Gulfstream pretty mediocre.  I had six selections from the eleven races but there was a lot of weather  causing the later races to come off the turf, and one of picks scratched so I lost my top pick.  In the opener, on the turf I knew Todd Pletcher's Tap Memories would face an uphill climb from post 12.  Ran credibly to be a fading sixth at 5/1.  Won the next with my one minimum play on the card when Pango was the "class" play in an $8K starter.  He'd won at $12.5K and $16K after beating $8K runners last winter.  Edged clear late as the even money favorite.

Liked another Pletcher runner in the third, didn't like the favorite who was no where to be found.  On the turn Rag Tag came to the third choice and I thought here we go!  But it was the 3rd choice that went on with it and I was just a best-of-the-rest second.  Passed the fourth and I was fortunate to have the winner in the fifth, a 3yo Maiden Special going six furlongs.  Why fortunate?  Because there were two Todd Pletcher runners and I liked Gallantry.  But in the morning when I made my bets he'd already scratched, so I went with the other one Money Moves.  While Gallantry was a $160K sales grad, Money Moves had pulled nearly $1 Million at the sales auction, but John Velazquez was listed on the former.  I was fortunate that Gallantry was an early scratch so I got to make the change.  Jockey Luis Saez had to work on Money Moves from the time they entered the far turn, but his persistence paid off as he drew off late to give me my second, and final win at GP.

I was second best in the Grade 3 Royal Delta to end the day in So Fla.  On to New Orleans.  In the opener I was loose on the lead over the firm turf course on a sunny day.  But faded to sixth through the stretch.  Passed two races then was 2nd at 4/5; was 2nd at 2/1 when I couldn't catch the 20/1 front runner.  So let me get this straight - I've GOT the lead and can't hold on, then when I've got the finisher I can't catch the longshot leader?  Yep, that's right.  In the 7th, a maiden event I liked Chrystal Sphere despite the post eleven draw based on his bullet work.  Pressed the leader through the turn, drifted wide into the lane to lose ground, but re-broke and came back to wear him down for the win.  The generous $8 payoff helped salvage some of the betting money lost.

Missed in the next stakes on the turf when I made a sweeping move then hung.  In the Grade 3 Mineshaft I had won with Silver Dust in the prep for this but went against him today - he won.  In the Gr 3 Fair Grounds on the turf I ran in the middle of the pack.  In the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra for 3yo fillies, I'd had Finite in the prep, the Silverbulletday.  But I went with BC Juvenile Filly champion British Idiom who's trainer had been quoted that he expected her to run BIG today.  No, Finite who'd barely hung on in the S'day at a shorter distance was TONS the best today.  Closed the day with back-to-back thirds in the two divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star, the latter at a big 11/1 and I really thought turning for home I might hang on.  But, not today.

Sunday - Monday
Sunday after all the rain I had one and one only pick left.  In the opener Chad Brown's first time starter Union Maiden was the 4/5 favorite.  Completely missed the break.  Figures....sigh.  The special Monday holiday card featured TEN starter stakes for $60 to $75K and I had several selections.  I was also playing the Oaklawn card which featured three graded stakes.  At Gulfstream in the first High Noon Rider was making his move up the backstretch on the inside when he clipped heels and fell to last, that was that.  In the third I broke last and was lucky to get third.  In the fourth the public liked Liza Star who was a speedy sort on the rail.  But I thought she'd have company so I went with I'll Take Cake who was making her first start for trainer Saffie Joseph with Tyler Gafflione on board.  Unfortunately the closer it got to post time the more money came in on my pick.  Not enough to make her the favorite, but she still was only 6/5 when the gates opened.  Still third as heads turned for home she found another gear and drew off to win the Lady Bird Stakes.

Came right back in the fifth with Queen Of God in the Mrs. Presidentress Stakes on the turf.  But she was only a minimum bet.  The $7.40 payoff would have been generous if I'd gambled more.

Nowhere to be found at 9/1 in the sixth, then in the eighth I had the 3/5 favorite in Disc Jockey.  Another Saffie Joseph runner he cruised up to the 70/1 longshot front runner as they turned for home and then.....couldn't get by.  WOW, what a week.  The winner paid $153.20 for a $2 bet, I was a best of the rest second.  And in the finale at Gulfstream Muggsamatic was the 7/5 favorite and got to the front turning for home, let's accelerate and get this one home I thought....ran evenly and caught in the shadow of the wire by the 7/2 second choice.  At Oaklawn went 1-for-3 in the stakes action.  To be honest I liked my chances in the two stakes I lost, but they were far from solid selections.  In the one I won, the Grade 3 Bayakoa Go Google Yourself tracked favored Whoa Nellie, who I did NOT like into the lane.  The two put on a real show to the final fifty yards when 'Google edged clear to win.  An exciting race and with the 2/1 odds I cashed for over $30 to again salvage some of the day.

No one is more adorable than my grandson and I say that openly - even if he wasn't my grandson I'd say that.  In the video below you see three clips.  In the first he reads to me, the story of "Peter Pan."  Then in the short second clip he reads to Kim and I from her favorite book for kids, "Don't Turn The Page."  And the final nine minutes is Oliver's first time ever on Disney's Jungle Cruise ride.  He obviously loved the experience - and especially to be with Grandma and Grandpa.

Oliver's Highlights

Tampa Preview / La Premier Night Week

February 5 - 9

It was an interesting week of racing, and as ALWAYS is the case, each day brought it's own set of stories!  Here's how the week played out.....

Wednesday Feb. 5

Mom Mom's week-long visit ended late yesterday afternoon, and then early today Kim left for the west coast of Florida to visit with her twin sister and then on to Orlando was the plan.  My plan for filling my days included a week-day visit to the track, a Panthers home game Thursday, handicap all day (or most of it) on Friday, and spend the day at the races on Saturday.  Sunday I'd either return to the races or play online and I was hopeful Kim would be returning home Monday.  When I handicapped for both Feb. 5 and 6 on Tuesday morning I discovered that while I COULD go to the races because I did have some horses I liked, neither of the days provided a sequence of races that I thought it was worth driving 45 minutes to Hallandale to watch.  Today's second had "one of those" races that I typically like to go out for, a near certain winner.  But Road To Peace was so, SO obvious of a pick I knew he'd never pay more than $2.40 for the win.  So when I considered going I just couldn't see driving all the way down there to collect less than five dollars profit or be very disappointed.  So as the day opened and I was watching the day's analysis it occurred to me that in the first and the third you could reasonably narrow the choices down to three or four.  So I looked at playing an early Pick-3 which would make watching the races more interesting for me.  In the opener I thought five horses had a chance.....I only had one that I even could guess at, but listening to the three analysts I thought nearly half the field stood a reasonable chance, so I took four of them.  I had the two 5/2 co-favorites, a 9/2 third choice and on the outside a 6/1 price play.  It was the 6/1 runner who set out on the lead in the five furlong turf sprint and quickly cleared the field.  He was clear into the lane, but began shortening stride inside the final 16th.  I wasn't worried though because the two horses closing the best were two of mine.  But the longshot held on and paid $14.00.  That has to help if I hit the next two.  Road To Peace figured to be odds on and a "single" on nearly everyone's ticket.  He'd been claimed for $20K by Saffie Joseph who moved him up to a $40K dirt sprint and was a best of the rest 2nd with a Beyer that nearly matched his three strong turf tries.  The concern came in that today he was free-falling into this $12.5K sprint.  Why the precipitous drop?  All I could figure was that from an economics perspective they figured they were nearly certain to win and collect $12K purse money and he's claimed for $12.5K they would make over $5K for a little more than a month's worth of work.  If not claimed they had a runner to move up the ladder.  Tyler Gafflione put him on the lead and he was pressed through the opening quarter while Gafflione sat motionless.  On the turn he asked for a little run and quickly Road To Peace cleared off.  Won for fun, as expected at 1/5 odds and I just had to close the deal in Race 3.  The three runners who "everyone" seemed to center their choices around were the three I'd listed.  I wasn't betting to WIN because two of them had faced each other and while one had outrun the other and might be loose on the lead, the other had been a prohibitive 3/5 favorite and I was afraid he'd run back to those previous race odds.  And on the outside was a newcomer who was making her first start on the grass with Joe Bravo up for Wesley Ward.  The two from the previous race left the gate at 3/2 and 5/2 while the Bravo filly was a co-second choice at 5/2.  That one was near the back but closed with a rush to be up in a photo.  Even though I was pretty sure she'd won, it was my other choice (at 3/2) who was in the photo so I knew I'd be cashing the P-3 ticket.  It was Bravo, so for the first and last legs the "longest" price of my choices had scored.  I had only bet a $0.50 ticket, costing me $6, so the $22.30 was a fair payoff and had kept me engaged through the opening third of the day.  WHOOO HOOOO.

In the fourth I like Loriloupies who was also going for Saffie Joseph, but I had less confidence here despite the fact that 'Lori had fired two bullet works (apparently with the addition of first-time Lasix) and being the DRF Best Bet today because there were two others in for the $50K maiden tag that looked good enough to win.  But it was Loriloupies who took off on the turn to clear off by double digits before jogging the last 16th of a mile and still prevailing by more than half a dozen lengths at a remarkable $7.40 price.  A 5th and a 6th were sandwhiched by a 2nd and 3rd as I closed out the first day of racing.

Thursday February 6
Today was a W-E-A-K card, I thought.  Of the ten races scheduled there were SEVEN where I didn't see any advantage to bet and three of those were so open/weak that I couldn't even mention a single runner as a potential winner.  So you can see why today was not a good day to venture out to the races.  I had a pick in the third with a 7x maiden in a five furlong turf sprint.  I said in the analysis that either he wasn't as good as thought, or he'd be much the best.  Lost for the 8th time at 6/5 odds.  My choice (a minimum bet) in the 8th scratched leaving me with a Todd Pletcher returnee in the 9th.  As I was watching the races GP analyst Jason Blewitt threw a stat that I was familiar with, but didn't know the specific numbers, about Todd Pletcher with layoff runners.  Check this out....

That was good enough for me and I doubled my original planned bet and had $30 to win on Soladado.  This colt had run great last year to break his maiden debut Holy Bull Day with a big 91 Beyer.  Ran 3rd around two turns here at 4/5 in allowance company, then was sent to Oaklawn to try two turns.  Fourth at 9/5 led to being put on the shelf.  Working swiftly for his return with two bullet works,  I thought his even money post time odds were a gift with my only concern being the rail draw.  He broke a step or so slowly, but was hustled up the inside to take a narrow lead after the opening quarter.  He dueled for the first half mile through a fast, but not lightning :45.3 half mile.  Then when asked he opened up and won confidently by open lengths.  Cashed for SIXTY big ones, whoooo hooooo.

Friday February 7
You'll note in the above Pletcher stat I've posted that the past performances for not only Soldado are included but for Last Judgement who ran today.  More on that momentarily.  While watching the races on Wednesday and Thursday I'd handicapped for Friday and had several selections.  So my preliminary thought was to make a day of it.  So I went through the cards for Aqueduct, Laurel, and the Fair Grounds thinking I'd go out for the day.  But by the end of the day Thursday the weather forecasts were calling for a ton of rain overnight and through the day Friday.  So, as I told Kim, I was just afraid of going out and finding all the races changed and horses scratched.  So I just played at home.  I checked on Sunday to see how I WOULD have done and ironically, not only was the weather bad in So Fla but high, gusty winds led to cancellation of the entire NY card; my first pick at Laurel was in the fifth and when I checked the results chart, I discovered THEY cancelled their card after the fourth!  And at the Fair Grounds have my horses scratched out, so wise move to not go Mr. Mark.  At Gulfstream we were off the turf, but by the end of the day the front had moved through and the track eventually was actually upgraded to fast.  Through the first four races I missed in the opener, I had a pick in the 2nd for the main track that I didn't feel strongly about but played anyway.  He ran a distant second at 3/1.  Then passed a race and had an off-the-turf race where I lost my pick.  Lost again with a Todd Pletcher second time starter who'd missed the break in her debut three weeks ago.  Broke cleanly but lagged at the back, late running non-threatening fourth.  Passed the next two races which brought us to my three most solid bets of the day.  In the 8th it was an entry level allowance for older and Chad Brown was sending out Royal Flag.  She'd only been out twice - ran third in a sprint as the favorite with a big 82 Beyer; returned to destroy a one-turn mile maiden event with an even better 85 BSF at 1/5 odds.  So today she had to overcome (a) facing winners for the first time, (b) that the last race win came over sloppy going, how would she run on a fast track, and (c) today she was going two turns.  But if she ran back to those numbers she was gone.  She did.  "Everyone" liked her and she was well bet, so I upped the bet from double to triple investment.

I thought 4/5 was generous for a return.  Then in the 9th it was the second of the Todd Pletcher horses with the stat noted above.  To be fair, I didn't up the bet again (and probably should have based on what I'm about to say), but they even talked about Soldado in the pre-race analysis and referred to this stat.  And yet, Lost Judgement was allowed to go off at an even bigger price that yesterday's winner.  And again, full disclosure, Last Judgement had a different resume.  He'd debuted with a well beaten fourth here at even money; then won for fun at 4/5.  He too shipped to Oaklawn, but he won like a good thing.  Was 9/2 in the Gr 3 Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard and was absolutely buried.  Then ran in Monmouth's Pegasus against Maximum Security and was fourth of six.  Off since that mid-June race he was another long-layoff, dirt runner.  Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was up today and he let him get settled early in sixth.  A bit of a concern to me but the good news was the 5/2 second choice was being pressured through a :45 half by an 80/1 outsider.  Began gobbling up horses on the turn, swept by and drew off in hand.  The 8/5 odds led to a payoff of nearly $40.

My pick in the final race was scratched going to the gate.  So it was another good day of racing :)

Saturday February 8th:  Tampa Bay Festival Day / Louisiana Premier Night
With Kim gone - and just as a side note, her plans to Orlando got changed because of some behavior issues with the grandson, but she stayed with her twin sister - I considered staying all day and late into the night on this Saturday because the highlight during the afternoon was the Tampa Festival Preview card, but beginning at 6 pm EST racing began at Delta Downs in Louisiana for their "Louisiana Premier Night" card, and I had picks until nearly 11 pm.  But I also had the "dilemma" that the Florida Panthers were home again tonight.  They played embarrassingly bad in the final period on Thursday when losing 7-3 so I wasn't wild about rushing home to get to the game, but I thought if I left after my last live bet at GP I'd be home before Delta started and could watch the game AND the races live.  So that became the plan.  Right away a great story.....as I've since told several people, I've had a lot, and I mean A LOT of things happen to me at the races.  Not just seen a lot, which I have, but most have actually happened to me during my bets/experiences.  But THIS was a new one even for me.  In the opener the top two choices looked like the ones to beat; and they'd met last time out with one beating the other by four lengths.  That was Markistan the #7.  He was an off the pace type, which was a minor concern of mine but his numbers seemed best in this maiden claimer.  He was mid-pack or a little farther back to the far turn, began gaining, but not quickly enough to catch either the 10/1 longshot winner or the 3/5 favorite...that's the one who was 4 lengths BEHIND Markistan last time out, go figure.  So I wrote down on my selection/results sheet, "9/5 - 3rd, late rally."  Then the "INQUIRY" sign went up.  Within a few minutes the announcement came that they were looking into the start.  And then you could see on the head-on replay.  The assistant starter had been late letting go of Markistan and he reared trying to get away when the gates opened.  So the announcement came that "#7 Markistan has been declared a non-starter" and refunds would be issued.  So, I ran third, but "won!"  Put that one into the books :)

I missed in the 2nd at GP when in traffic and had to check, 4th at 3/1; 2nd at Tampa and 4th at Tampa again, this time with more trouble (blocked then ten wide).  Finally in the fourth at GP I was 6th at 5/2.  NOT the way I envisioned the day going, but the "BIG bets," the "they won't lose" kind of runners were later in the afternoon.  The fourth at Tampa looked like a typical Gulfstream 3yo maiden race with many of these looking like future graded stakes stars.  And yes there was a Todd Pletcher, in fact there were two.  I went with Texas Swing with John Velazquez figuring he had his choice of the two.  The 3yo colt went right to the front, dug in when challenged and won by daylight as the even money favorite.  Little did I know that this would be the end of the winners at Tampa.  Not greatly surprised that I lost the races on the undercard - though I would have thought I'd win at least ONE of those - but the stakes races were ALL won by long shots....headline making longshots.

More on those later.  In the third at Aqueduct was a claiming sprint.  Three and four back Getoffmyback had won two in a row for a notch cheaper under the care of trainer Rob Altras.  Lost via the claim three back in his most recent he was 2nd as the even money favorite at this higher level and was RE-CLAIMED by Altras.  I love that angle.  Top rider Manny Franco - who had been in town last week to ride Tiz the Law to the big win in the Holy Bull - was up.  Right to the front and wired the field by eight plus widening lengths as the even money choice.  Minutes later they were off at the Fair Grounds in an entry level allowance.  I mentioned that if you were not a Beyer believer, which I am, that you could find value somewhere else.  But former Euro import (and that gave him a class edge I felt) had a "Double Beyer Advantage" with his last two numbers better than all lifetime figures of his rivals.  Even in a difficult entry level spot like this that's hard to overlook.  But at the top of the stretch, even the LONG Fair Grounds stretch, he was out of it.  And at the 16th pole, while a bit closer he wasn't going to win.  Then he got outside and hit another gear and was FLYING.  At the wire I just really couldn't tell.  If I had to guess I'd say I'd lost, but it soooo depended on where the official finish line.  Then the results.....DEAD HEAT!

As I said on the video, I'd rather take this than a loss.  But the result was instead of cashing for more than $20 I collected less than $15.  Still, better than tossing the ticket.  My "Upset Special" was in the 5th at GP but he was bet down from 6/1 to 5/2, then was off very slowly and had traffic early....8th.  Missed with a Pletcher firster at Tampa when 5th at 6/5.  The fourth at Aqueduct was a $16K non-winners of two lifetime and ALL of the runners were exiting losses at that level except Sobersick N Sorry who was dropping out of a $30K nw2L and going first off the claim for Linda Rice.  Mid-pack to the stretch then began eating into the leader's advantage....at about the furlong pole I was pretty sure I'd win, but he certainly didn't "blow by."  But he did win and at a nice $6.30 price to get me back over $30.  Then I FINALLY got my first victory at Gulfstream, if you don't count the first race :)  Blamed was coming off a dismal, and I mean DISMAL effort in the Gr 2 Inside Information, so the drop in class to this conditioned allowance somewhat offset that effort.  But I probably would have looked elsewhere except the Bill Mott 5yo mare showed this kind of pattern previously - very bad effort, then a drop in class preceded a strong win.  Sure enough, right to the front under hot riding Irad Ortiz and widened through the stretch.  Tripled the bet to cash for over $35.

Then "it" began.  I'd told Kim on the phone and my Mom when texting on Friday that I expected to win several races today but didn't think I'd make much money because there were several horses who were "nearly certain" to win, but as short priced favorites.  In the 6th at Tampa Tiltingatwindmills was sent out by Chad Brown in an entry level allowance.  There were five career numbers from 118 collective Beyers that would challenge his LAST THREE.  Duh.  Bettors weren't buying into it whole heartedly....a non-competitive sixth at 9/5 odds.  Minutes later Continuation was running in an Aqueduct maiden special.  Now here, ok....he'd debuted with a giant 86 Beyer in just his debut.  Maybe you figure he'll digress. BUT he was twenty-one plus lengths clear of the show runner.  AND he was the DRF's Mike Beer's BEST BET - and he NEVER likes the favorite, much less a short-priced 2nd out maiden like this.  Clear into the lane, but then caught in the shadow of the wire at 1/2 odds, second.  WOW.  Missed with a Pletcher runner at Gulfstream at a nice 4/1 when second best behind the favorite then third at 2/1 at Tampa with another Pletcher 3yo maiden.  I briefly considered not betting the 9th at Gulfstream even though I'd listed Cabre as a minimum bet.  With the way the day was going, particularly locally I was wary.  But the on-air analysts both picked him and said he was clearly the one to beat, as I thought.  What was interesting was he was a tepid 2/1 favorite as he went into the gate.  But when he crossed the finish line, just in front by the way, he was 3/5.  Someone pounded him.  Me, I had only a $5 bet....but hey, it still counts as a win.

I went upstairs to be able to see two big screens simultaneously because I had two more "they should win for fun" bets going off out of town at the same time.  At the Fair Grounds it was their feature, the $60K Shantel Lanerie Memorial named in honor of jockey Corey Lanerie's late wife who'd lost her battle with breast cancer a year and a half ago.  As I noted in my comments, it SHOULDN'T matter but I was a big "concerned" because last year in the inaugural running Lanerie was on the very short priced, obvious favorite and ran second.  Today Alms was certain to be a very short price.  This 3yo filly was not only unbeaten, but her three Beyer figures were far and away the best in the field.  And to seal the deal her last two wins came in Grade 3 races.  Oh.  SHOULD win for fun.  Simultaneously the Gr 3 Endeavour was about to go off at Tampa.  Here, Got Stormy would be "stealing" if going off at better than 1/5.  She'd won the Gr 2 Ballston Spa at Saratoga, over the boys; was second as the favorite in the Gr 1 Woodbine Mile, against the boys; was 2nd to the best milers in the world - boys - in the Breeders' Cup Mile and in December won the Grade 1 Matriarch at Del Mar.  Now figure in that of the 146 combined races of her rivals today, NONE .... that's zero had ever earned a triple digit Beyer figure, and Got Stormy had earned five in a row.  And she was working very well, so much so that trainer Mark Casse had been quoted as saying they expected her to run "big" today.  And finally even if she ran back to her seven-back non-triple digit Beyer of 96, NONE of the others' lifetime best would beat that.  She cruised up to the leaders on the far turn and then.....nothing.  WOW.  At the same time Alms was rallying on the far turn......whew, she blew by to win.  But the "BET of the Day" on the Tampa race sealed the financial outcome of the day.

Bounced right back with two more wins though.  In the ninth at Gulfstream rider Irad Ortiz had already won three races, and he's had MANY days like this, and he was on my top pick Twenty Four Seven.  This one was coming off a long layoff but trainer Danny Gargan showed 44% win stats off breaks like this.  Pressed the pace through the far turn, took over and was clear to mid-stretch.  Then not one but two rivals came flying up......PHOTO FINISH again.  But this one I was nearly certain I'd held on, and I was right.  Cashed for nearly $30.

Went inside the Silks Simulcast area and watched as they loaded into the gate for the feature at Aqueduct, the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at six furlongs for three-year-olds.  Of the six entered, five of them looked like to run their best race they needed to be either on the lead or pressing the lead.  ONLY Montauk Traffic would be finishing.  His last race Beyer would win this, but that was a maiden win - could he run that well in his first against winners, and in a stakes race?  The race unfolded just as I'd seen it.  'Traffic came rallying into the lane on the rail but had no where to go.  It was, as I described it in the video a "hard right hand turn" as he didn't at all glide gradually to the outside, just a sharp right, into the clear, found his late kick and blew by to win at a very nice $7.60 price so I cashed for almost $40.

Missed at Tampa in their Suncoast Stakes and at Santa Anita.  Then in Tampa's Gr 3 Tampa Bay Stakes on the turf, March To The Arch - who'd won for me on Sunshine Millions Day - was given a perfect ride by Tyler Gafflione.  Shot through on the rail to take the lead less than a 16th out, only to be nailed by TWO late runners on the outside.  Sigh.....  The final live race I was betting at Gulfstream was the featured Grade 3 Suwanee River.  It clearly was a match race between Magic Star and Starship Jubilee - BOTH of whom had won for me last time out.  Clearly 'Jubilee was the more proven as a multiple graded stakes winner who loved Gulfstream.  And Magic Star was making just her fourth career start, but had won the Gr 3 Marshua's River over not one but TWO proved stakes winners last time.  I preferred her because (a) she was lightly raced with room for improvement, (b) had Irad Ortiz, and (c) went for Chad Brown.  And I did NOT like Starship Jubilee because she was coming back on just three weeks rest - she didn't show a single time where she'd returned so quickly - and last time out when she won the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf she coasted on a ridiculously easy lead.  AND jockey Javier Castellano had opted not to ride her in favor of an unproven Chad Brown "other" filly.  Magic Star was enjoying a perfect, ground saving trip to the far turn and Starship Jubilee was also off the pace today - which wasn't a surprise.  Then in what made the difference, jockey Luis Saez came up beside Magic Star and kept her pinned in through the turn and into the lane.  She was 3-wide but in the clear and burst clear to take a daylight lead.  By the time Ortiz got Magic Star in the clear it was way too late.  Wow, clearly that one was a jockey's win.  I bet the first of the Delta Downs races and three others then headed to the car.  To seal the deal at Tampa, heavily favored, unbeaten and the fourth "clearly the best" horse of the day for me,  Independence Hall led into the lane in the Grade 3 Sam Davis - the first step towards the Kentucky Derby via Tampa, then was run down by a horse who was two for three, but both his wins had come on the turf.  Wow.  I listened to this in the car on the drive home.  Got home and as my spaghetti dinner was cooking I watched the fifth from Santa Anita, the Grade 2 Las Virgines for 3yo fillies.  Venetian Harbor was a really hyped filly who'd walked with her debut.  BUT that big 94 Beyer came in a MSW sprint.  Could she stretch out around two turns, beat winners, and Gr 2 stakes company on top of that?  Sent off as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite she led to the far turn.  But when the challengers came to her she burst free and ran away as much, MUCH the best while wrapped up.  Clearly an Oaks kind of filly.  WOW impressive.

Then the fourth "clearly the best" horse lost for me.  It was the first at Delta Downs, a starter handicap and Dale's Lil Sis stood out.  Much like Got Stormy, of the combined 161 lifetime Beyers earned by the rest of the field, NONE of them could match the last four she'd earned.  Led into the far turn at 1/5, then wilted to finish third.  Just wow-squared.  After missing in the Gr 3 Thunder Road at Santa Anita it was time for the Louisiana Premier Night Prince for 3yo colts.  No Parole had rolled through his first two by 14 lengths and then 13 1/4 lengths while earning Beyers of 90 and 87.  The "best" figures for the rest of the field were 68, 61, 63, 70, 64, and 55.  SHOULD be an easy winner.  Right to the front, and much like Venetian Harbor, when the field closed ground he opened up without asking and dominated.  His connections said afterwards that he'd shown enough that they HAD to try one of the open Derby preps at the Fair Grounds next.

Missed in the Cajun Starter at Delta when 2nd at 6/5 then in the Distaff I had Mariah's Galaxy.  Everything lined up for her despite her last out 3rd place finish, which was vs. open company by the way.  She had already beaten every one in the field, multiple times; was 3-for-3 in state-bred stakes with wins by a combined ten plus lengths;  had earned three consecutive 83 Beyers which beat 175 of the 177 combined races run by the rest of the field; AND she was 6/5-1-0 at the distance while 6-for-11 locally.  She made her move on the far turn, caught wide and lost a length or so then accelerated and ran away for fun.  She paid 4/5 which I thought was very generous considering all the numbers.

Missed at 8/5 and then again at 2/5 (where one figure in the field of 67 races would beat his last two) before heading into the final race of the day for me, the Louisiana Premier Night Matron, a 5 1/2 furlong sprint.  Last time out at the Fair Grounds I liked Minit To Stardom to take down the La Legends Ladies Sprint.  She cruised up to challenge the 7/2 second choice leader Midnight Fantasy, but as they straightened for the sprint to the wire she didn't get by.  She seemed to be trying to re-rally when in mid-stretch Midnight Fantasy shifted six to eight paths wide before straightening and winning by daylight.  It was questionable but I approved of the stewards taking her down and giving me the win with Minit To Stardom.  So off that clear, daylight loss how did you view the two?  I thought that Minit To Stardom would run back to one of her big efforts and that Midnight Fantasy would bounce off that career best effort.  Sure enough as they spun out of the turn 'Fantasy faded to third and Minit To Stardom began to run away.  Midnight Fantasy, to her credit re-rallied and closed to within two lengths to be second.  But I won.  Wait.....jockey's objection by the runner-up.  WHAT?  Watched the replay and the two fillies were never close to one another.  Lame.  Stewards looked briefly and then said "NO" the order of finish is official.  And I had my THIRTEENTH win of the long day's worth of racing.

If you'd ever told me that five of the six "they won't lose" runners WOULD lose I'd never have believed I'd show more than a dozen winning tickets for the day.  I'll take the 38% winners on the day!

February 8th Racing Highlights

Sunday February 9
The final racing day of the week came and I briefly considered, again, going out.  But while I could have, I wanted to work on beginning the week's wrap up and work around the house in anticipation of Kim's return home tomorrow.  I had eight picks originally, but one of them scratched.  Missed in the opener as I went against the hot-riding Irad Ortiz who won on my second choice, who was the post time favorite.  In the third it was my "best" of the day at Gulfstream with Todd Pletcher's Summer To Remember.  He'd won for me on opening day then was third in the Gr 3 Kitten's Joy last time out.  He moved to the lead but instead of running away he was all out to hold off a late-running long-shot.  PHOTO finish, again.  But I was pretty sure he was the winner, and he was as the 1-2 favorite.

Well beaten sixth in the 4th with a Todd Pletcher maiden in a 3yo sprint.  And then lost in the sixth when third with another Pletcher 3yo who was the even money favorite.  In the 7th I liked Jason Servis' Liana Susquehanna who was Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET.  Blew by coming out of the turn to give Irad Ortiz his FOURTH winner of the day at 9/5 odds, so I collected nearly $30.

In the eighth I liked two horses but gave the edge to a Mark Casse runner on the turf because the Chad Brown runner had never earned a number good enough to win.  I was third, Brown's horse won at better than 3/1.  Sigh....  Passed the next two and in the finale I considered changing my bet from my top choice to my second choice.  Why?  Because jockey Irad Ortiz had FIVE wins and was going for his sixth.  Seriously?  But I knew that if I DID switch he'd lose.  Didn't switch....he did win.  Wow.  Finally, I'd read that the companion race to yesterday's Grade 2 Las Virgines for the 3yo fillies at Santa Anita, the Grade 2 San Vicente for the colts was the feature later in the day.  I'd read several places that Hall of Fame trainer was very high on his debut winning colt Nadal.  And he was listed as the 4/5 favorite in today's race.  Pretty heady stuff considering that the 2yo Eclipse Award winning Juvenile of the year, BC Juvenile winner Storm The Cat was running.  But he'd been 45/1 that day and I thought, reading between lines that Nadal (the Baffert colt) just might be this good.  As I tuned in a little after 6:30 pm they were heading to the gate and he was a minuscule 1/5 odds.  He was on the pace being pressed from both the outside and the inside through a wicked :44 and change half mile going seven furlongs.  Edged clear and then another longshot came to him and actually got a head in front.  But jockey Joel Rosario was still hand riding him and when asked to run he pulled away.  Bob Baffert in the post-race interview was pretty excited because as he put it, "...that was all the horse.  I'd just given him a light breeze between races so he had very little preparation...." And now it's on to the Rebel Stakes and officially on the Derby trail!