Let The Championship Season Begin!
Friday November 30
I was oh-so-excited to begin daily handicapping for the Gulfstream Championship Season right after we arrived home from our amazing journey on the Douro River through Portugal. Certainly THE most memorable we've ever had. Met THE best fellow passengers and had the extreme good fortune to have THE VERY BEST Viking staff of any ship we've ever been on. Click HERE to see the photos from our spectacular adventure. So on the first day back home in South Florida I began going through all the races for Opening Day on Friday and I handicapped the races from Churchill Downs where they had a strong card including two graded events. The very first race on the GP card was a two-year-old maiden event and sure enough, there was trainer Todd Pletcher. Anyone who's followed my racing adventures at GP knows that Mr. Pletcher is the "king" of Gulfstream. And I've found that trying to guess when his horse is "live" and when it's an "also-ran" is fool-hardy. If it's a Pletcher runner at Gulfstream then 9-out-of-10 times that's the bet. I wasn't wild about Quick Enough on paper, but like I said, it was Todd Pletcher. Sat the perfect trip behind a four-some of front runners to the far turn. Got into the clear at the top of the lane and ran away!
Can't tell you how many years the first race of the season is a Pletcher maiden winner, and I begin the season 1-for-1. Whoooo hoooo. Unfortunately that was it for the day at Gulfstream. I had two thirds and several off-the-board finishers. At Churchill I spent the majority of the afternoon watching my picks race with a chance but not closing the deal. A third and a fourth were the best I could do until the featured Grade 1 Clark Handicap. On his own merits I did not think that Tom's d'Etat was a legitimate Grade 1 kind of horse, much less the kind of Grade 1 runner I'd make a favorite in a $600K race like this. But as I've often said, in thoroughbred racing it's all about the match-ups. And compared to who 'Tom was running against he looked very legitimate. Jockey Joel Rosario took him farther off the leaders than he typically runs, but when the fractions for the first part of the race were posted I could see why - they were going WAY too fast up front. On the turn he made his move and Tom's d'Etat was the easiest kind of winner - my first stakes win of the winter!
Came right back in the finale at the Louisville track as Hoppa scored as the favorite. So three wins for the first day was an "ok" way to start. Now on to Saturday and my first day at the races!
Saturday November 30th: Opening Weekend Saturday
I was really pumped to be going out for the day and the weather looked to be just glorious. And it was the kind of day the local Chamber of Commerce hopes for as they try to attract tourists to South Florida. The weather, fantastic. The racing - excellent. BUT, the way my day started, not so much. Immediately upon entering the facility I was greeted by not one but two "WHAT!" experiences. I walked into the Silks Simulcast area and to the Box Office counter and asked for a seat in the grandstands only to be told "There are no seats in the grandstand, we're remodeling." Wait, what? NOW? During the prime racing season? You're telling me that NOW, this time of year there are no seats. I looked at her and she must have read my mind because she said, "It's a real problem for us with Pegasus World Cup Day" so I asked, "What about Florida Derby Day?" She replied, "No, no grandstand seats. We've heard they might try to set up a temporary grandstand." So I asked, since I was a returning customer (of more than ten years) would I get first choice at what ever seating they had and would I be contacted. Yes to both. Can't imagine why (a) management decided to begin this construction at the height of the racing season when the eyes of the nation are on Gulfstream and (b) why they would convert all these seats to more dining behind glass windows. The big lure of the winter season is the beautiful weather, who wants to sit inside? And during the summer they can NOT have that big of a crowd to warrant additional seating like that. And this doesn't even consider what about the day-to-day fan that wants to come to the races and sit down?
Just bad decision all the way around. So I paid the $10 for a reserved box seat among the 180 that are still left and enjoyed my day. But first, I went to one of "my tellers" to cash five tickets I'd had left from my last visit. The first four went right through but the fifth did not. Not completely unusual for the clerk to have to manually type the serial numbers but even that didn't work. To make a long story short, after half an hour and meeting with the head of the wagering machines and then the head of all of wagering, the "big boss," I found out someone had mistakenly purged the computer system of all of this track's (Woodbine in Canada) results and that was why my ticket wasn't reading in the system. So I was told they'd mail me a check. A most auspicious start to my winter racing season! Got outside just in time for the first race where I had another Todd Pletcher runner in Lemoncita. She had broken dead last in her debut last time out at Gulfstream Park West in maiden special company. The drop in for a $25K tag should do the trick under two-time riding champion Luis Saez. She was still third behind a pair of longshots with an 1/8th of a mile to go and looked beaten for sure. But she found another gear and just on the wire got her nose down for the win! WHOOO HOOO.
My next five picks from Gulfstream, Aqueduct in New York, and Churchill Downs did not result in a winner. But in the forth from Aqueduct I had Mo Maverick in a second level allowance turf sprint. In his last race Mo Maverick had beaten this exact level of competition at this same distance here. But he was claimed away for a big $40K price tag by the best turf sprint trainer in the country, Jason Servis. He'd won the training title here last winter and his #1 jockey all winter had been Irad Ortiz. That's who was on board the 6/5 favorite today. Right to the front and coasted wire to wire as easily the best.
Ran third at Churchill Downs before I got my first stakes winner of the day - and that came from Laurel Park in Maryland in the City of Laurel Stakes. Trainer Chad Brown always has a stable full of talented runners and his colt Honest Mischief looks MUCH the best on paper. Any of his last five speed figures would require a lifetime best by anyone else to win. But as they turned for home 'Mischief was NOT making up any ground. With only an eighth of a mile to go he finally began gaining ground, split horses with a sixteenth to go and finally with 100 yards to go surged to the front as the heavy favorite.
I just missed in Gulfstream's first stakes of the day, the Buffalo Man for 2yo when Wild West was 2nd at 6/5 odds. But I got back into the winner's circle with The Big Kahuna in Gulfstream's 6th. The name jumped off the page to me because when I was teaching at Cypress Bay High School my boss, and good personal friend Scott Nealy went by the nickname "The Big Kahuna." But 'Kahuna also looked good in the program as yet another Todd Pletcher runner with top rider Luis Saez up. Right to the front but he could not clear. Led them into the stretch and then got a challenge from the second choice in the betting. They dueled for a furlong in the lane before Saez got the favorite to kick clear and I had my second local win of the day.
In the next five selections I had FOUR runner-up finishes before getting my third winner of the day on the Gulfstream card. The eighth race was the House Party Stakes for 2yo runners. I didn't like the favorite and I thought Spanish Point might have a chance to upset the logical choice. In her debut 'Point had broken behind the field, rushed up and dueled with three other horses, then kicked clear. Always difficult to beat winners off a maiden score, but most of these were doing the same thing. And I figured IF Spanish Point broke cleanly he might prove much the best. Sure enough, got the lead immediately with a clean break and when the even money favorite came to her she kicked clear in deep stretch as I filmed from the rail. WHOOOO HOOOO my first Gulfstream stakes winner of the winter :)
I went inside the simulcast area to watch the 10th from Aqueduct, their featured race....the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap going eleven furlongs on the turf. Si Que Es Buena was the program favorite and she was my BET of the Day. She'd won two graded stakes last winter here and had come off a long layoff to run in a Grade 1 event last time out. The drop in class and her victories here would have made her the pick. BUT, her race before the vacation earned a speed figure that was "paired" in her most recent and that almost always indicates a step forward. If that happened today she'd win for fun. But as the field hit the far turn she was still languishing at the back of a full field. She began to gather momentum but if she went into the clear she'd lose all kinds of valuable ground - to stay inside and await an opening meant she'd have to have racing luck. When the jockey stayed inside I was anxious. But she blew by up the rail and won going away. HORRAY!
I was certain I had my third win in a row when Tappin Cat was up in time after a stretch duel at Laurel. The INQUIRY sign went up and I thought - "Who's that against because MY horse didn't do anything." They showed the head-on camera view and true the two horses brushed, didn't bump for sure. And the second replay I watched the ruts in the dirt and could easily tell I'd run straight as an arrow. No problem, I'm not being taken down. Wrong. Disqualified. BAD CALL by the stewards to rob me of my seventh win on the afternoon. After failing to hit the board in my next two I got my seventh win of the day from Louisville in their co-featured Grade 2 Golden Rod for two-year-old fillies who had hopes of running in the $1 Million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May. Finite had looked super in her first two career starts and raced for top Kentucky trainer Steve Asmussen. I also liked that she was owned by the Winchell's who had raced one of my all time favorite horses, Untappable, who also had been trained by Steve Asmussen. When she won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks in 2014 I made the BIGGEST BET of my career, $200 to WIN and she was much the best. Finite stalked the pace over the sloppy going to the top of the stretch, took the lead and then had to fight hard the length of the stretch before finally edging clear in the shadow of the wire.
Missed in the last two picks, the final one with Tiz The Law at Churchill in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club as he had no where to run until too late. Still, a 30% winning day and a good time for the first live racing day of the winter.
Sunday December 1
The final day of the weekend looked like a weak card as I began handicapping. I liked Sassy Justice in the opener, but only with a minimum bet. But after finding nothing in the next four races I decided to up the bet. In his last at Gulfstream Park West he was outfinished in a photo finish, but earned a speed figure that would beat the rest of these for fun. Easy-peasy-pie!
Ran fifth, seventh, and then thought I had the winner in the seventh only to be caught late, second and then eighth. But in the final race I won to close out the weekend. I was concerned that Blame The Gods would be overbet because she was dropping down from maiden special runners to a cheap $20K tag. The adage in racing is "they don't give anything away for free," I wondered if the barn was just trying to get rid of her. But I went ahead and bet her off the basis of one of my favorite angles, a bullet work. Blame The Gods dueled through the stretch as the favorite and as they ran I wondered if we were about to find out she truly wasn't up to the task, but with a hundred yards to go she edged clear for the win. Two-for-five for the day.....I'll take that any time.
Looking forward to the first full week of racing next week and on Saturday it's "Claiming Crown Day" where there are eight stakes worth a combined $1 Million! I'll be there :)
Just bad decision all the way around. So I paid the $10 for a reserved box seat among the 180 that are still left and enjoyed my day. But first, I went to one of "my tellers" to cash five tickets I'd had left from my last visit. The first four went right through but the fifth did not. Not completely unusual for the clerk to have to manually type the serial numbers but even that didn't work. To make a long story short, after half an hour and meeting with the head of the wagering machines and then the head of all of wagering, the "big boss," I found out someone had mistakenly purged the computer system of all of this track's (Woodbine in Canada) results and that was why my ticket wasn't reading in the system. So I was told they'd mail me a check. A most auspicious start to my winter racing season! Got outside just in time for the first race where I had another Todd Pletcher runner in Lemoncita. She had broken dead last in her debut last time out at Gulfstream Park West in maiden special company. The drop in for a $25K tag should do the trick under two-time riding champion Luis Saez. She was still third behind a pair of longshots with an 1/8th of a mile to go and looked beaten for sure. But she found another gear and just on the wire got her nose down for the win! WHOOO HOOO.
My next five picks from Gulfstream, Aqueduct in New York, and Churchill Downs did not result in a winner. But in the forth from Aqueduct I had Mo Maverick in a second level allowance turf sprint. In his last race Mo Maverick had beaten this exact level of competition at this same distance here. But he was claimed away for a big $40K price tag by the best turf sprint trainer in the country, Jason Servis. He'd won the training title here last winter and his #1 jockey all winter had been Irad Ortiz. That's who was on board the 6/5 favorite today. Right to the front and coasted wire to wire as easily the best.
Ran third at Churchill Downs before I got my first stakes winner of the day - and that came from Laurel Park in Maryland in the City of Laurel Stakes. Trainer Chad Brown always has a stable full of talented runners and his colt Honest Mischief looks MUCH the best on paper. Any of his last five speed figures would require a lifetime best by anyone else to win. But as they turned for home 'Mischief was NOT making up any ground. With only an eighth of a mile to go he finally began gaining ground, split horses with a sixteenth to go and finally with 100 yards to go surged to the front as the heavy favorite.
I just missed in Gulfstream's first stakes of the day, the Buffalo Man for 2yo when Wild West was 2nd at 6/5 odds. But I got back into the winner's circle with The Big Kahuna in Gulfstream's 6th. The name jumped off the page to me because when I was teaching at Cypress Bay High School my boss, and good personal friend Scott Nealy went by the nickname "The Big Kahuna." But 'Kahuna also looked good in the program as yet another Todd Pletcher runner with top rider Luis Saez up. Right to the front but he could not clear. Led them into the stretch and then got a challenge from the second choice in the betting. They dueled for a furlong in the lane before Saez got the favorite to kick clear and I had my second local win of the day.
In the next five selections I had FOUR runner-up finishes before getting my third winner of the day on the Gulfstream card. The eighth race was the House Party Stakes for 2yo runners. I didn't like the favorite and I thought Spanish Point might have a chance to upset the logical choice. In her debut 'Point had broken behind the field, rushed up and dueled with three other horses, then kicked clear. Always difficult to beat winners off a maiden score, but most of these were doing the same thing. And I figured IF Spanish Point broke cleanly he might prove much the best. Sure enough, got the lead immediately with a clean break and when the even money favorite came to her she kicked clear in deep stretch as I filmed from the rail. WHOOOO HOOOO my first Gulfstream stakes winner of the winter :)
I went inside the simulcast area to watch the 10th from Aqueduct, their featured race....the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap going eleven furlongs on the turf. Si Que Es Buena was the program favorite and she was my BET of the Day. She'd won two graded stakes last winter here and had come off a long layoff to run in a Grade 1 event last time out. The drop in class and her victories here would have made her the pick. BUT, her race before the vacation earned a speed figure that was "paired" in her most recent and that almost always indicates a step forward. If that happened today she'd win for fun. But as the field hit the far turn she was still languishing at the back of a full field. She began to gather momentum but if she went into the clear she'd lose all kinds of valuable ground - to stay inside and await an opening meant she'd have to have racing luck. When the jockey stayed inside I was anxious. But she blew by up the rail and won going away. HORRAY!
Missed in the last two picks, the final one with Tiz The Law at Churchill in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club as he had no where to run until too late. Still, a 30% winning day and a good time for the first live racing day of the winter.
Saturday November 30 Highlights
Sunday December 1
The final day of the weekend looked like a weak card as I began handicapping. I liked Sassy Justice in the opener, but only with a minimum bet. But after finding nothing in the next four races I decided to up the bet. In his last at Gulfstream Park West he was outfinished in a photo finish, but earned a speed figure that would beat the rest of these for fun. Easy-peasy-pie!
Ran fifth, seventh, and then thought I had the winner in the seventh only to be caught late, second and then eighth. But in the final race I won to close out the weekend. I was concerned that Blame The Gods would be overbet because she was dropping down from maiden special runners to a cheap $20K tag. The adage in racing is "they don't give anything away for free," I wondered if the barn was just trying to get rid of her. But I went ahead and bet her off the basis of one of my favorite angles, a bullet work. Blame The Gods dueled through the stretch as the favorite and as they ran I wondered if we were about to find out she truly wasn't up to the task, but with a hundred yards to go she edged clear for the win. Two-for-five for the day.....I'll take that any time.
Looking forward to the first full week of racing next week and on Saturday it's "Claiming Crown Day" where there are eight stakes worth a combined $1 Million! I'll be there :)
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