December 4 - 8: Claiming Crown Week
December 4
The first full week of racing at the Championship Meet kicked off on Wednesday and we were in Orlando visiting our grandson and his parents. We left around 8:30 am in the morning and arrived around lunch time to visit with our son Brad. We then picked up Oliver at school and he was so very excited to see us. We went to Chick-Fil-A for lunch which had an outdoor playground and the little man had a great afternoon. For the weekend he was so very cuddly to both of us and came up countless times to say "I love you Grandpa," or "I miss you Grandma" just because. Made for a wonderful three days.
After Oliver went to bed I pulled up the replays for Wednesday. In the opener it looked like the race would be decided between one of two class droppers. Good Solution was dropping from a $40K NYRA maiden claimer to this $20K Gulfstream spot while stretching out to a mile under aggressive jockey Paco Lopez. I figured he'd be forwardly placed for a good trip and added, ".....he may get loose and never look back...." The gates opened and Good Solution went right to the front. The opening quarter was in a fair :23.4, but when the half mile split was posted at :48 and change I knew he was long gone. Never had to take a deep breath as Paco simply showed him the whip in the lane, and he drew off to win for fun.
In the second my pick had to duel through the opening quarter of a six furlong claiming sprint and paid for it in the stretch as he weakened to third at 3/5. Passed on both the third and the fourth before doubling up on Pocket Candy in the fifth. It's always a question of what to do with horses like this as Pocket Candy was absolutely plunging from $25K runners to this basement $6.25K level. But for me, the fact that he'd raced earlier for $10K I thought he probably most rightly belonged at a lower level like this. If he was right he looked to be a decisive winner. Right out of the gate jockey Paco Lopez was challenged by a 7/1 speedster so Lopez smartly allowed that one to clear, then shifted outside to stalk the leader. Made his move on the turn and ran away as much the best.
Ran third and fourth with my final two selections so I "settled" for a solid 40% win average today...I'll take that any day of the week.
December 5
Today Oliver got to skip school to spend the day playing with Grandma and Grandpa. He has been obsessed with Santa for more than a year so you can imagine just how excited he is that it's actually Christmas season. His other grandma bought him a Santa suit which he lives in, but when Kim brought her Mrs. Santa apron he insisted on wearing it nearly the entire day while we were home. He enjoys reading books with both of us which we did in the morning before taking him to "Lucky Monkey" - an indoor playground - where he had a wonderful 2 1/2 hours of activity. We went to McDonald's for lunch and then spent the afternoon walking around the neighborhood looking at the blow-up Christmas decorations. Another great day.
Later in the evening I again pulled up the Gulfstream replays to see how my handicapping had played out for the day. The first two races today were maiden claimers and both appeared to be "go figure" events in my opinion, so I passed. A 9/1 scored in a photo in the first and the second choice at 3/2 in the second - neither of which were preferred by me. The third was a 2yo claiming event where Maletta was going first off the claim for Jorge Delgado (31%). Was a tepid 5.2 favorite and was a non threatening fourth. The next race was a non-winners of three lifetime and in races like this I much prefer runners making their first start in conditioned company....even better if first time racing for a claiming tag. Blue Chip Prospect had BOTH angles in his favor. But still I had mixed feelings about this one because with his two lifetime wins there were ELEVEN second and third place finishes. Even more hesitant because turf sprints are always a difficult kind of race to handicap - one small misstep and your chances are gone. BIG class drop, first time tag and first time conditioned company. The presence of hot riding Paco Lopez sealed the deal. He was up close early, settled two wide on the turn and dueled with a nearly 30/1 longshot through the lane. As the duel went on and he did NOT go by I was thinking, now we'll tell which is stronger.....the willingness to settle for the minor award or the class relief. With strong handling by Paco he was ahead under the wire and I had my first winner of the day.
The fifth was another nw3L and I didn't care for anyone. The crowd knew better than I did as the 7/5 post time favorite romped home decisively. In the sixth it was yet a third nw3L event, this one going a mile on the turf. The seven rivals facing my top choice, Chilled Milk had run a combined 121 times and ONE, count them, one Beyer figure would be competitive with the LAST THREE BSF earned by Chilled Milk! The lifetime resume of 17/2-5-2 was shaky, but much like Blue Chip Prospect, 'Milk had never run for this cheap a tag AND those big Beyers had been earned in allowance company. Finally, if you looked down the pp's, jockey Jose Ortiz had been on Chilled Milk twice before - his ONLY TWO WINS. Good enough for me to triple the investment. Got a good spot just outside the 43/1 pace setter and moved to engage him on the far turn. Edged to the front turning for home but then here came the 7/2 second choice. It was close, but my number went up after the examination of the photograph.....two in a row!
In the eighth race, Durlyn was the heavy even money favorite in the program. And as I remarked, I get the whole "value" thing about betting. But truly, isn't the idea to WIN? This guy boasted a 5-for-13 local record and was 4-for-8 at this mile trip. True, plunging in class from $16K to $6.25K but this kind of move is characteristic of a Frank Calabrese-owned / Saffie Joseph-trained runner. Their logic being that with the claim and purse money they'll make a tidy profit. Add in jockey Tyler Gafflione who wins at a 40% clip for the barn and you see why he was my choice. Tyler G tracked with the favorite on the hip of the 17/1 pace-setter to the turn. Moved to engage him in hand, then got his head in front turning for home. But the longshot would not give in and they battled to inside the final 16th of a mile before Durlyn exerted his advantage and I had THREE IN A ROW on this Thursday card. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
My pick scratched out of the 8th and I had no opinion on the ninth. The finale was a maiden claimer for juveniles and as I remarked in my analysis, there were all kind....and I mean ALL KIND of red flags about picking Interest in here. The filly drew $450K at the sales ring and after just TWO starts, trainer Todd Pletcher was plunging her not only in for a tag, but for a cheap $25K tag. Had to be frustrating for the owners. And this after just one try on dirt and one on turf. BUT, it IS Gulfstream, and he IS Todd Pletcher. You just don't let those kind go here in the winter - you pay far more often than you score going against when guessing when he's "live" and when he's not. Interest got the perfect trip under Luis Saez as they tracked the top two to the turn, moved three wide and began eating up the ground into the lane. Came on even terms and edged clear late! FOUR IN A ROW - the best day of the young meet. You know this handicapper felt pretty good about himself.
Friday December 6
Today we left Orlando. After breakfast we took Oliver to school and you have to give the little man a lot of credit. He was happy as can be and talked about missing us, but went willingly to the car and into school. Led us to his classroom and walked to his cubby to hang up his jacket; then gave us hugs and was off to play. We were relieved that it was not an emotional good-bye. Made the LONG drive back to South Florida, arriving a little after noon. To be honest, I completely forgot about making my bets despite handicapping for Saturday - duh. But I got my last three in and watched the races. In the fifth Sizzling Roma was the DRF's Mike Welsch's BEST BET and was dropping into restricted company for the first time. Sat the perfect trip to the turn behind 7/1 and 5/1 rivals; moved to challenge and got to them to engage, then flattened out to run evenly home in third. In the sixth it looked like strictly a two-horse affair between the two favorites in a MSW turf affair. I did NOT like Smack at all and even if there had not been a Todd Pletcher runner I would have looked elsewhere. I DID like Tapit To Ride for Pletcher under Luis Saez. Second time starters for Pletcher are 26% winners and Saez had this filly right outside the 19/1 pace setter to the turn. Moved to engage on the turn......but could not get by! Photo finish with Smack for the place and show (I was third) while the longshot was clear by a length. Go figure....racing, gotta love it. Finally got on the board in the "featured" ninth, a nw1x allowance. Queen Nekia was 2nd best in a spot like this last winter then won a one-turn mile event at Laurel before being very ambitiously placed in the mile and a quarter Grade 2 Delaware Handicap - where I had the winner as I stood along the rail as part of our "Track Trip 2019" adventure. Won back-to-back two-turn events at Delaware and now shows up here with races that should win for fun. Handled confidently by jockey Irad Ortiz she moved from 5th to 4th, then engaged the leaders on the turn. Asked for run and she blew by to win in hand. Nice....
As a side note story......
The first year the Pegasus World Cup was run I let the price of a ticket dissuade me from going and I regretted it for a year. So in the second year I paid the money and Keith and I went - watched Horse of the Year Gunrunner score with ease. Last year we returned and on a drizzly day I had BOTH the winner of the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Turf - Bricks and Mortar who subsequently went unbeaten for 2019, including the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, and I had him in all his races (he will most likely be Horse of the Year) and had City of Light as he backed up his BC Dirt Mile win with a win in the $9 Million Pegasus World Cup. Sooooo, I went to get tickets for the 2020 event a couple of weeks ago and there were no grandstand seats. So I settled for paddock seats. Now I've discovered the reason there were no grandstand seats available is because there literally ARE NO grandstand seats. So it occurred to me on this Friday afternoon that maybe, just maybe there might be one of the 180 box seats available. Sure enough - there were three. But at a more expensive price (a touch over $200 per seat). Made me hesitate. All evening and Saturday morning I went back and forth, thinking of the 2017 Pegasus Cup when I let money stand in the way. I WAS going this year, but I would not be seated to see any of the races. I texted Keith and told him the story....he asked if I was going to get one, and I decided yes, I want to sit and watch the races. So he said ok. I got the tickets and was very happy. Figured I'd just eat the paddock seats, probably no refund, but when I got to the track Saturday the gal who takes the tickets - who's become a "friend" of mine - heard the story and said to be sure and tell them at the box office. Sure enough, between races I went to see them and the gal was more than happy to immediately refund the money for the paddock seats. WHOOOO HOOOO. Here's the view we will have - pretty cool, eh?
Saturday December 7: Claiming Crown Day
I had a bit of a conundrum for handicapping for this day. Typically in the winter I like someone in nearly every race locally, and on Claiming Crown Day I knew I'd have several selections. Also, Aqueduct was running a strong card so I knew I wanted to play New York. But the rest of the tracks didn't have any "good" races that I could tell, and I knew there was a chance that one of my favorite former students, and now good friend Kimmy might be stopping by. Went back and forth and finally decided to just play GP, AQU, and a few races from Tampa. I ended up with twenty races on my selection sheet. Even though Kimmy didn't make it (was very sweet to text me mid-way through the day and explain, then text again on Sunday apologetically - maybe next week she said), I still don't think I'd have found many other plays on the day. I knew that the REAL Gulfstream had started as soon as I pulled into the parking lot which was a LOT more full than last Saturday. I was glad I'd purchased my box seat online, though as it turned out far fewer people paid the $25 for these seats today. Passed on the Gulfstream opener but I liked Cost Bias in the New York opener. Typically when you see a speed figure for a horse that's way out of line with the others it's best to view it with skepticism. But with young horses many times it is what it is - they've found themselves and you can probably rely on it as an accurate measure of their current form and chances. Well, if Cost Bias ran back to his last race 82 speed figure he was going to win big, win decisively, and pay a very small price as a Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz runner. Rated perfectly to the turn, moved by to the front but could not put away a 12/1 outsider......edged clear late to give me my first win of the day.
That was it for a little over two hours as my next seven picks picked up second twice, third once and off the board in the rest .... but to be fair only one of them was the post time favorite. Took a shot, came up empty. Finally - after changing tellers (hey, sometimes it's all in their "magic fingers!") - I got back into the winner's circle. Spiced Perfection had been my upset choice in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She ran a good fourth at 6/1 in that seven furlong event. Today she was in the Grade 3 Go For Wand Handicap going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. I wrote I'd understand anyone who went against her despite how she stood out to me. Never been a one turn mile; never been in NY; and her Beyers were overwhelming to her rivals. AND both her last two wins had come in photo finishes. Still, her last six races were in FOUR Grade 1 events, and a Gr 2 and Gr 3. From that she'd compiled a 6/3-1-0 record with two of the victories in Grade 1 events. Jockey Javier Castellano quickly took advantage of her speed and cleared without problem. No one ever got within two lengths of her and she paid a remarkable $4.80 to win....my triple investment returned more than $35.
I came right back to win again, and this time with my first Gulfstream win AND first Claiming Crown stakes event in the Rapid Transit going seven furlongs. I thought that Royal Squeeze was an obvious choice despite the 6/1 morning line price. He had won 5-of-13 at this demanding distance and only 5-of-26 at all other distances. AND he was clearly a "Horse for the Course" with a local record of 17/8-3-2. Obviously the crowd though so as well as when GP analysts Ron Nicoletti and Jason Blewitt began their on-air discussion Royal Squeeze was the even-money choice. He dueled between horses under Paco Lopez then edged clear turning for home. Found another gear and opened up in the final 16th to win by daylight!
But the best part was that somehow the crowd went cold on him and allowed his 1/1 price to float all the way up to 2.9 to 1, allowing a payoff of $7.80 and I cashed for almost $40. YOWZA! The next pick wasn't until the next race at Gulfstream in the Claiming Crown Express. And it was my BET of the Day! Shekky Shabaz had run third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint six weeks ago after pressing the pace to the top of the stretch. The drop into a Claiming Crown event gave him an obvious class edge. In addition of the 120 combined races showing for the others in the field, there was ONE single triple digit Beyer (belonging to a 30/1 outsider) while Shekky Shabaz had posted back-to-back-to-back triple digit Beyers, all in open stakes company. Add in the hot-riding Paco Lopez and he was a standout. Yet as they loaded into the gate he was a juicy 3/5 - how could that be? Well it wasn't because as soon as the field was sent on their way his odds plummeted to 1/5. Tracked the leaders to the lane, got on even terms but didn't blow by.....uh oh. Paco seemed to have the leader measured and asked just enough for the favorite to edge clear late and I had my third winner in a row!
Missed on the next four before it was time for the Aqueduct featured event, the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. As it was written in several racing analysis, the two three-year-old favorites seemed head and shoulders above their older counterparts here today. The first was Spun To Run who was coming off an upset win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile over prohibitive favorite Omaha Beach - who was many handicappers, best of the BC weekend. The other was Kentucky Derby "winner" Maximum Security. This colt had begun the season with three optional claiming wins here at Gulfstream before the connections stretched him out to score in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. After winning the Kentucky Derby and being DQ'd in a controversial call he'd won the Grade 1 Haskell and the Grade 3 Bold Ruler at Belmont Park. I did not like Spun To Run because he had been allowed to coast on an easy lead in the Breeders' Cup (which infuriated me that my rider Mike Smith allowed him to get away from Omaha Beach like that) and that was at two turns. But regardless, I really liked Maximum Security. As I told Kim on Friday, I really thought his connections saw this test as the finishing touch to 3yo-of-the-year championship and I expected him to be razor sharp. My only concern was if Spun To Run insisted on the lead and the two sophomores dueled each other into submission. The gates sprung open and jockey Luis Saez immediately sent Maximum Security to the front. It didn't look to me like he'd had to work hard to get it, but Spun To Run quickly came to him and was glued to his hip. Just what I didn't want, but I could tell that Maximum Security was well within himself and I thought that the field was in big time trouble. Sure enough when let loose at the top of the lane the soon-to-be 3yo champion opened up and ran away to the clever call of announcer John Imbriale, "Maximum Security SMOKED them in the Cigar Mile!"
In spite of his obvious class and to me at least clear-cut advantage over the field the crowd of usually savvy NY handicappers let him go off at a huge 6/5 price, paying $4.60 to win and allowing me to collect nearly $50 on my prime time investment. WHOOO HOOO. I was really happy for the colt and his connections - a well deserved Eclipse Award should be given to him in January. And I'm excited that the publicly stated next target is the January 25th $9 Million Pegasus World Cup - which, as noted above, I have tickets for! I'd only had three picks for Tampa on the day and was already 0-for-2, but in their 8th I thought favored Pythagorean was a standout. FLYING on the outside through the turf stretch - PHOTO FINISH. Thought for sure I had it, but officially listed as second. Sigh. In the finale at Gulfstream it was the Claiming Crown Emerald going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. There was a lot to like about Muggsamatic in here. He was a 7x turf winner.....he was first off the claim for Jason Servis, a 35% win angle.....he had Paco Lopez on board who not only had been winning all week, but had three wins so far today and he was a 43% winner for Servis. Lopez tracked the leaders from fifth to the turn, split horses at the top of the stretch and ran away to a clear and decisive victory! My sixth on the day and third Claiming Crown win.
Closed the day with a second in the Grade 1 Starlet at Los Alamitos where Donna Veloce, 2nd by a neck in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies could not keep up with Bob Baffert's Bast - who I had had in her Grade 1 Chandelier win prior to the Breeders' Cup. It was a wonderful day - great weather, great racing and more than my fair share of tickets cashed.
Sunday December 8th: Caribbean Classic Day
In the first three years that Gulfstream hosted this Latin American racing festival it was the featured program on the second Saturday of the meet with an undercard of several two-year-old stakes. But those events were run last week on Opening Day, and the typical Opening Day card of the Claiming Crown events was THIS week. So the Caribbean Classic was today. The first year all of the Latin American races were "go figure" for me. But last year I'd stayed to watch them and actually had picks in two of them and won them both. Today I looked at them all again and none of them looked like races I could decipher - and it didn't help that the two public handicappers had three different horses in all but one of them (where they had five horses different). But on the undercard I had a few picks. In the opener favored Catnip Kitten was a dismal tenth as my top choice as well. But I bounced back in the second when Runaway Dreamer was the winner, rallying from just off the pace as the 9/5 favorite under Jersey Joe Bravo.
The fourth WOULD have made my day as Rochambeau was my top pick and Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET. I went prime time and he was better than 2/1 when he cruised to the front under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. But in the shadow of the wire a $15 winner nailed him.....would have collected nearly $65, sigh. But in the fifth Jorge Navarro's first time starting Premier Star tracked the other favorite under Irad Ortiz. Caught that one and the two favorites dueled to inside the final 100 yards before Premier Star got in front.
The generous $6.40 payoff allowed me to cash for over $30 on my second winner of the day and get back to even heading into the final play of the day. And that play was in the ten furlong Latin American stakes, the Copa Confraternidad Del Caribe which featured prohibitive favorite Kulkulkan. This guy had been a perfect 13-for-13 this time last year when he shipped here and won the Caribbean Classic. Since then he'd run strictly in North America and was graded stakes placed. The only question was the mile and a quarter distance. Irad Ortiz had him rating in mid-pack to the turn then he effortlessly split horses, swung three wide and ran away from the field to win geared down. EXCELLENT! Finished 3-for-5 on the final day of the race with a profit to show for my handicapping :)
The first full week of racing at the Championship Meet kicked off on Wednesday and we were in Orlando visiting our grandson and his parents. We left around 8:30 am in the morning and arrived around lunch time to visit with our son Brad. We then picked up Oliver at school and he was so very excited to see us. We went to Chick-Fil-A for lunch which had an outdoor playground and the little man had a great afternoon. For the weekend he was so very cuddly to both of us and came up countless times to say "I love you Grandpa," or "I miss you Grandma" just because. Made for a wonderful three days.
After Oliver went to bed I pulled up the replays for Wednesday. In the opener it looked like the race would be decided between one of two class droppers. Good Solution was dropping from a $40K NYRA maiden claimer to this $20K Gulfstream spot while stretching out to a mile under aggressive jockey Paco Lopez. I figured he'd be forwardly placed for a good trip and added, ".....he may get loose and never look back...." The gates opened and Good Solution went right to the front. The opening quarter was in a fair :23.4, but when the half mile split was posted at :48 and change I knew he was long gone. Never had to take a deep breath as Paco simply showed him the whip in the lane, and he drew off to win for fun.
In the second my pick had to duel through the opening quarter of a six furlong claiming sprint and paid for it in the stretch as he weakened to third at 3/5. Passed on both the third and the fourth before doubling up on Pocket Candy in the fifth. It's always a question of what to do with horses like this as Pocket Candy was absolutely plunging from $25K runners to this basement $6.25K level. But for me, the fact that he'd raced earlier for $10K I thought he probably most rightly belonged at a lower level like this. If he was right he looked to be a decisive winner. Right out of the gate jockey Paco Lopez was challenged by a 7/1 speedster so Lopez smartly allowed that one to clear, then shifted outside to stalk the leader. Made his move on the turn and ran away as much the best.
Ran third and fourth with my final two selections so I "settled" for a solid 40% win average today...I'll take that any day of the week.
December 5
Today Oliver got to skip school to spend the day playing with Grandma and Grandpa. He has been obsessed with Santa for more than a year so you can imagine just how excited he is that it's actually Christmas season. His other grandma bought him a Santa suit which he lives in, but when Kim brought her Mrs. Santa apron he insisted on wearing it nearly the entire day while we were home. He enjoys reading books with both of us which we did in the morning before taking him to "Lucky Monkey" - an indoor playground - where he had a wonderful 2 1/2 hours of activity. We went to McDonald's for lunch and then spent the afternoon walking around the neighborhood looking at the blow-up Christmas decorations. Another great day.
Later in the evening I again pulled up the Gulfstream replays to see how my handicapping had played out for the day. The first two races today were maiden claimers and both appeared to be "go figure" events in my opinion, so I passed. A 9/1 scored in a photo in the first and the second choice at 3/2 in the second - neither of which were preferred by me. The third was a 2yo claiming event where Maletta was going first off the claim for Jorge Delgado (31%). Was a tepid 5.2 favorite and was a non threatening fourth. The next race was a non-winners of three lifetime and in races like this I much prefer runners making their first start in conditioned company....even better if first time racing for a claiming tag. Blue Chip Prospect had BOTH angles in his favor. But still I had mixed feelings about this one because with his two lifetime wins there were ELEVEN second and third place finishes. Even more hesitant because turf sprints are always a difficult kind of race to handicap - one small misstep and your chances are gone. BIG class drop, first time tag and first time conditioned company. The presence of hot riding Paco Lopez sealed the deal. He was up close early, settled two wide on the turn and dueled with a nearly 30/1 longshot through the lane. As the duel went on and he did NOT go by I was thinking, now we'll tell which is stronger.....the willingness to settle for the minor award or the class relief. With strong handling by Paco he was ahead under the wire and I had my first winner of the day.
The fifth was another nw3L and I didn't care for anyone. The crowd knew better than I did as the 7/5 post time favorite romped home decisively. In the sixth it was yet a third nw3L event, this one going a mile on the turf. The seven rivals facing my top choice, Chilled Milk had run a combined 121 times and ONE, count them, one Beyer figure would be competitive with the LAST THREE BSF earned by Chilled Milk! The lifetime resume of 17/2-5-2 was shaky, but much like Blue Chip Prospect, 'Milk had never run for this cheap a tag AND those big Beyers had been earned in allowance company. Finally, if you looked down the pp's, jockey Jose Ortiz had been on Chilled Milk twice before - his ONLY TWO WINS. Good enough for me to triple the investment. Got a good spot just outside the 43/1 pace setter and moved to engage him on the far turn. Edged to the front turning for home but then here came the 7/2 second choice. It was close, but my number went up after the examination of the photograph.....two in a row!
In the eighth race, Durlyn was the heavy even money favorite in the program. And as I remarked, I get the whole "value" thing about betting. But truly, isn't the idea to WIN? This guy boasted a 5-for-13 local record and was 4-for-8 at this mile trip. True, plunging in class from $16K to $6.25K but this kind of move is characteristic of a Frank Calabrese-owned / Saffie Joseph-trained runner. Their logic being that with the claim and purse money they'll make a tidy profit. Add in jockey Tyler Gafflione who wins at a 40% clip for the barn and you see why he was my choice. Tyler G tracked with the favorite on the hip of the 17/1 pace-setter to the turn. Moved to engage him in hand, then got his head in front turning for home. But the longshot would not give in and they battled to inside the final 16th of a mile before Durlyn exerted his advantage and I had THREE IN A ROW on this Thursday card. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
My pick scratched out of the 8th and I had no opinion on the ninth. The finale was a maiden claimer for juveniles and as I remarked in my analysis, there were all kind....and I mean ALL KIND of red flags about picking Interest in here. The filly drew $450K at the sales ring and after just TWO starts, trainer Todd Pletcher was plunging her not only in for a tag, but for a cheap $25K tag. Had to be frustrating for the owners. And this after just one try on dirt and one on turf. BUT, it IS Gulfstream, and he IS Todd Pletcher. You just don't let those kind go here in the winter - you pay far more often than you score going against when guessing when he's "live" and when he's not. Interest got the perfect trip under Luis Saez as they tracked the top two to the turn, moved three wide and began eating up the ground into the lane. Came on even terms and edged clear late! FOUR IN A ROW - the best day of the young meet. You know this handicapper felt pretty good about himself.
Friday December 6
Today we left Orlando. After breakfast we took Oliver to school and you have to give the little man a lot of credit. He was happy as can be and talked about missing us, but went willingly to the car and into school. Led us to his classroom and walked to his cubby to hang up his jacket; then gave us hugs and was off to play. We were relieved that it was not an emotional good-bye. Made the LONG drive back to South Florida, arriving a little after noon. To be honest, I completely forgot about making my bets despite handicapping for Saturday - duh. But I got my last three in and watched the races. In the fifth Sizzling Roma was the DRF's Mike Welsch's BEST BET and was dropping into restricted company for the first time. Sat the perfect trip to the turn behind 7/1 and 5/1 rivals; moved to challenge and got to them to engage, then flattened out to run evenly home in third. In the sixth it looked like strictly a two-horse affair between the two favorites in a MSW turf affair. I did NOT like Smack at all and even if there had not been a Todd Pletcher runner I would have looked elsewhere. I DID like Tapit To Ride for Pletcher under Luis Saez. Second time starters for Pletcher are 26% winners and Saez had this filly right outside the 19/1 pace setter to the turn. Moved to engage on the turn......but could not get by! Photo finish with Smack for the place and show (I was third) while the longshot was clear by a length. Go figure....racing, gotta love it. Finally got on the board in the "featured" ninth, a nw1x allowance. Queen Nekia was 2nd best in a spot like this last winter then won a one-turn mile event at Laurel before being very ambitiously placed in the mile and a quarter Grade 2 Delaware Handicap - where I had the winner as I stood along the rail as part of our "Track Trip 2019" adventure. Won back-to-back two-turn events at Delaware and now shows up here with races that should win for fun. Handled confidently by jockey Irad Ortiz she moved from 5th to 4th, then engaged the leaders on the turn. Asked for run and she blew by to win in hand. Nice....
As a side note story......
The first year the Pegasus World Cup was run I let the price of a ticket dissuade me from going and I regretted it for a year. So in the second year I paid the money and Keith and I went - watched Horse of the Year Gunrunner score with ease. Last year we returned and on a drizzly day I had BOTH the winner of the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Turf - Bricks and Mortar who subsequently went unbeaten for 2019, including the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, and I had him in all his races (he will most likely be Horse of the Year) and had City of Light as he backed up his BC Dirt Mile win with a win in the $9 Million Pegasus World Cup. Sooooo, I went to get tickets for the 2020 event a couple of weeks ago and there were no grandstand seats. So I settled for paddock seats. Now I've discovered the reason there were no grandstand seats available is because there literally ARE NO grandstand seats. So it occurred to me on this Friday afternoon that maybe, just maybe there might be one of the 180 box seats available. Sure enough - there were three. But at a more expensive price (a touch over $200 per seat). Made me hesitate. All evening and Saturday morning I went back and forth, thinking of the 2017 Pegasus Cup when I let money stand in the way. I WAS going this year, but I would not be seated to see any of the races. I texted Keith and told him the story....he asked if I was going to get one, and I decided yes, I want to sit and watch the races. So he said ok. I got the tickets and was very happy. Figured I'd just eat the paddock seats, probably no refund, but when I got to the track Saturday the gal who takes the tickets - who's become a "friend" of mine - heard the story and said to be sure and tell them at the box office. Sure enough, between races I went to see them and the gal was more than happy to immediately refund the money for the paddock seats. WHOOOO HOOOO. Here's the view we will have - pretty cool, eh?
Keith on the left - me on the right (like that NO ONE is to my right!)
Saturday December 7: Claiming Crown Day
I had a bit of a conundrum for handicapping for this day. Typically in the winter I like someone in nearly every race locally, and on Claiming Crown Day I knew I'd have several selections. Also, Aqueduct was running a strong card so I knew I wanted to play New York. But the rest of the tracks didn't have any "good" races that I could tell, and I knew there was a chance that one of my favorite former students, and now good friend Kimmy might be stopping by. Went back and forth and finally decided to just play GP, AQU, and a few races from Tampa. I ended up with twenty races on my selection sheet. Even though Kimmy didn't make it (was very sweet to text me mid-way through the day and explain, then text again on Sunday apologetically - maybe next week she said), I still don't think I'd have found many other plays on the day. I knew that the REAL Gulfstream had started as soon as I pulled into the parking lot which was a LOT more full than last Saturday. I was glad I'd purchased my box seat online, though as it turned out far fewer people paid the $25 for these seats today. Passed on the Gulfstream opener but I liked Cost Bias in the New York opener. Typically when you see a speed figure for a horse that's way out of line with the others it's best to view it with skepticism. But with young horses many times it is what it is - they've found themselves and you can probably rely on it as an accurate measure of their current form and chances. Well, if Cost Bias ran back to his last race 82 speed figure he was going to win big, win decisively, and pay a very small price as a Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz runner. Rated perfectly to the turn, moved by to the front but could not put away a 12/1 outsider......edged clear late to give me my first win of the day.
That was it for a little over two hours as my next seven picks picked up second twice, third once and off the board in the rest .... but to be fair only one of them was the post time favorite. Took a shot, came up empty. Finally - after changing tellers (hey, sometimes it's all in their "magic fingers!") - I got back into the winner's circle. Spiced Perfection had been my upset choice in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She ran a good fourth at 6/1 in that seven furlong event. Today she was in the Grade 3 Go For Wand Handicap going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. I wrote I'd understand anyone who went against her despite how she stood out to me. Never been a one turn mile; never been in NY; and her Beyers were overwhelming to her rivals. AND both her last two wins had come in photo finishes. Still, her last six races were in FOUR Grade 1 events, and a Gr 2 and Gr 3. From that she'd compiled a 6/3-1-0 record with two of the victories in Grade 1 events. Jockey Javier Castellano quickly took advantage of her speed and cleared without problem. No one ever got within two lengths of her and she paid a remarkable $4.80 to win....my triple investment returned more than $35.
I came right back to win again, and this time with my first Gulfstream win AND first Claiming Crown stakes event in the Rapid Transit going seven furlongs. I thought that Royal Squeeze was an obvious choice despite the 6/1 morning line price. He had won 5-of-13 at this demanding distance and only 5-of-26 at all other distances. AND he was clearly a "Horse for the Course" with a local record of 17/8-3-2. Obviously the crowd though so as well as when GP analysts Ron Nicoletti and Jason Blewitt began their on-air discussion Royal Squeeze was the even-money choice. He dueled between horses under Paco Lopez then edged clear turning for home. Found another gear and opened up in the final 16th to win by daylight!
But the best part was that somehow the crowd went cold on him and allowed his 1/1 price to float all the way up to 2.9 to 1, allowing a payoff of $7.80 and I cashed for almost $40. YOWZA! The next pick wasn't until the next race at Gulfstream in the Claiming Crown Express. And it was my BET of the Day! Shekky Shabaz had run third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint six weeks ago after pressing the pace to the top of the stretch. The drop into a Claiming Crown event gave him an obvious class edge. In addition of the 120 combined races showing for the others in the field, there was ONE single triple digit Beyer (belonging to a 30/1 outsider) while Shekky Shabaz had posted back-to-back-to-back triple digit Beyers, all in open stakes company. Add in the hot-riding Paco Lopez and he was a standout. Yet as they loaded into the gate he was a juicy 3/5 - how could that be? Well it wasn't because as soon as the field was sent on their way his odds plummeted to 1/5. Tracked the leaders to the lane, got on even terms but didn't blow by.....uh oh. Paco seemed to have the leader measured and asked just enough for the favorite to edge clear late and I had my third winner in a row!
In spite of his obvious class and to me at least clear-cut advantage over the field the crowd of usually savvy NY handicappers let him go off at a huge 6/5 price, paying $4.60 to win and allowing me to collect nearly $50 on my prime time investment. WHOOO HOOO. I was really happy for the colt and his connections - a well deserved Eclipse Award should be given to him in January. And I'm excited that the publicly stated next target is the January 25th $9 Million Pegasus World Cup - which, as noted above, I have tickets for! I'd only had three picks for Tampa on the day and was already 0-for-2, but in their 8th I thought favored Pythagorean was a standout. FLYING on the outside through the turf stretch - PHOTO FINISH. Thought for sure I had it, but officially listed as second. Sigh. In the finale at Gulfstream it was the Claiming Crown Emerald going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. There was a lot to like about Muggsamatic in here. He was a 7x turf winner.....he was first off the claim for Jason Servis, a 35% win angle.....he had Paco Lopez on board who not only had been winning all week, but had three wins so far today and he was a 43% winner for Servis. Lopez tracked the leaders from fifth to the turn, split horses at the top of the stretch and ran away to a clear and decisive victory! My sixth on the day and third Claiming Crown win.
Closed the day with a second in the Grade 1 Starlet at Los Alamitos where Donna Veloce, 2nd by a neck in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies could not keep up with Bob Baffert's Bast - who I had had in her Grade 1 Chandelier win prior to the Breeders' Cup. It was a wonderful day - great weather, great racing and more than my fair share of tickets cashed.
Claiming Crown 2019 Racing Highlights
Sunday December 8th: Caribbean Classic Day
In the first three years that Gulfstream hosted this Latin American racing festival it was the featured program on the second Saturday of the meet with an undercard of several two-year-old stakes. But those events were run last week on Opening Day, and the typical Opening Day card of the Claiming Crown events was THIS week. So the Caribbean Classic was today. The first year all of the Latin American races were "go figure" for me. But last year I'd stayed to watch them and actually had picks in two of them and won them both. Today I looked at them all again and none of them looked like races I could decipher - and it didn't help that the two public handicappers had three different horses in all but one of them (where they had five horses different). But on the undercard I had a few picks. In the opener favored Catnip Kitten was a dismal tenth as my top choice as well. But I bounced back in the second when Runaway Dreamer was the winner, rallying from just off the pace as the 9/5 favorite under Jersey Joe Bravo.
The fourth WOULD have made my day as Rochambeau was my top pick and Ron Nicoletti's BEST BET. I went prime time and he was better than 2/1 when he cruised to the front under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. But in the shadow of the wire a $15 winner nailed him.....would have collected nearly $65, sigh. But in the fifth Jorge Navarro's first time starting Premier Star tracked the other favorite under Irad Ortiz. Caught that one and the two favorites dueled to inside the final 100 yards before Premier Star got in front.
The generous $6.40 payoff allowed me to cash for over $30 on my second winner of the day and get back to even heading into the final play of the day. And that play was in the ten furlong Latin American stakes, the Copa Confraternidad Del Caribe which featured prohibitive favorite Kulkulkan. This guy had been a perfect 13-for-13 this time last year when he shipped here and won the Caribbean Classic. Since then he'd run strictly in North America and was graded stakes placed. The only question was the mile and a quarter distance. Irad Ortiz had him rating in mid-pack to the turn then he effortlessly split horses, swung three wide and ran away from the field to win geared down. EXCELLENT! Finished 3-for-5 on the final day of the race with a profit to show for my handicapping :)
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