Holy Bull Week

 February 2 - 6

The last "big" Saturday until we get to the Fountain of Youth was this weekend.  Well, let me clarify.....it's the last big racing day LIVE at Gulfstream.  This coming weekend is Tampa Bay's Sam Davis Day and on the 19th it's the Fair Grounds' Risen Star Day, so don't you worry - there's PLENTY of big races to come!  As far as this week goes, I'd characterize it as "an OK week of racing."  Enjoyed the handicapping and watching, and I won my share, but at a lower than typical 28%.  Here's how the week played out......

For years, literally, I'd stand in my classroom (Room #314) and gaze out the window this time of the year and see the crisp blue skies and sunny weather, and I'd say "If I were retired, I'd be at the track today."  And so ever since I've retired I've tried to remember that and go out as often as it fits the schedule and my racing selections on a weekday, even for just a couple hours.  Wednesday I was going to be alone all day at home so I went out because I had picks in three of the first four races.  As you can see I posted to my social media about why I was there.  But, it wasn't my day at the track.  Went against the favorite in the first two and ran second.  In the second race, a maiden event the winner was a TWENTY time maiden but TODAY picked the day to win; then in the final live bet I had the "obvious" 4/5 favorite who looked loose on the lead going two turns on the turf.  Rider decided to try sitting off what turned out to be a loose-on-the-lead front runner and could only finish second.  Like I said, not my day.  Still, always enjoy being there and being outside at the races!  Thursday was better.  In the second I had my "Upset Special" and Stribling went off at a whopping 16/1 and right to the front as I'd thought.  Led into the stretch and just as I was thinking, maybe.....he stopped to finish sixth.  But I won two of the next three.  Bill Mott sent out Giverny in a MSW turf sprint.  Of the sixteen races run by the field there were only four turf tries and but a SINGLE turf sprint - all by the same horse.  Mott's horse had run with talent when she ran here last March and if thought she could run on the turf, I was ok with that.  Burst out of the gate and was never threatened to give me my first winner of the week.

In the eighth, trainer George Weaver was bringing Pass the Champagne back off a long layoff.  She'd shown some real talent as a 3yo last year and if anywhere close to that she'd be really tough today.  In her 3yo debut last year at this same 7f she was a best-of-the-rest 2nd behind a promising filly who came back to be 2nd in a Gr 3.  A month later, again at this distance she won decisively.  Her first try against winners was in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland around two turns and she took the lead only to be nailed in the final strides by Todd Pletcher's talented Malathaat who came back to win the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and the Grade 1 Alabama.  'Champagne tried the Oaks but was distanced.  So today she was beginning her 4yo season and you know they had bigger dates circled than this Thursday afternoon allowance.  Still, the talent.  She was off a step slowly, but recovered quickly to be third into the turn.  Collared the leaders easily and ran off as easily the best.  Turns out she was the "Best Bet" of the week at Gulfstream.  

Finished the day 2-for-5, and that's always good!  Friday we were back to our old ways of NOT winning as I had eight bets on the ten race card and won with only one of them.  Between today and Wednesday I was thinking I should have a BIG day Saturday.  The lone winner was a Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden, well duh.  BUT...he was dropping in for a claiming price so there was concern that this was a "fire sale."  Still, it's been my experience that when Pletcher - at Gulfstream - drops a horse in for a tag, (a) he wins a big percentage of those and (b) he doesn't mind dropping in IF it's a very likely win spot.  Got to the front soon after the start and never looked back for the lone winner of the day.

Keith and I were excited to head out Saturday for the big stakes day at Gulfstream.  I told him on Friday after I'd handicapped the card that nearly all the races were REALLY difficult to predict the winner - could be any kind of day!  I'd told Kim on Wednesday that I was doubly excited for this day at the track and when she asked why I explained that in Louisiana three of the tracks each have a big state-bred day where they have a full slate of stakes races.  Today was Louisiana Premier Day at Delta Downs and is about the only day of the year I play the races there.  I was excited because normally Delta runs their races under the lights and on this day I'd play at GP and then have to play at home until after 11 pm.  But for some reason, the Delta card was in the afternoon so I'd get to play at the track.  I was irritated to have missed in the Gulfstream opener because it was a maiden claiming event with BAD horses.  The ideal spot for a first timer, and I listed Evil of Course as my third choice just on that basis alone.  But as I told Keith the barn was only 12% with these and none of the works hinted at ability.  Should have known that all the others were SO bad that the advantage of NOT having lost a race was huge - scored at a big 6/1 price.  Got the first winner of the day at at Gulfstream in a starter for 3yo on the new all weather surface.  Panama Truck was dropping out of an allowance event with paired Beyer figures.  Got on even terms with the front runner into the lane and they dueled all the way to the wire, one head up and one head down.  We were sitting literally on the finish line (even closer than last week) and I was pretty sure I'd won.....

WHEW that's close!  It was an hour later when I cashed my next ticket, but it was a good one.  The first at Delta had been a starter handicap, but the second was the La Premier Day Matron and Cilla was my BEST of the Day.  She'd been second in a Keeneland Grade 2 then WON a Grade 2 at Saratoga.  In this La-bred $100K stakes....seriously?  Ok it's a horse race.  Pressed three wide to the turn and then took off as much, MUCH the best.  

Didn't make a lot of money but the "being right" with the biggest bet of the day was satisfaction enough.  The fifth at Gulfstream was the first of the five 3yo stakes, it was the Grade 3 Swale for 3yo.  In the olden days this was a legitimate Kentucky Derby prep but now it's a good 3yo sprint stakes.  Todd Pletcher sent out My Prankster and really my only concern was the rail draw.  This was even more of a concern as they got in the gate because earlier on the card he had a well-backed maiden who drew the rail and didn't get away well.  And it was the same here, but jockey Luis Saez got him into the clear and up to third into the far turn.  Got to the front runner with a furlong to go and edged clear late.

Shortly after that I got my second win at Delta Downs in another starter handicap and I thought, I'm on my way now!  Ran third with a Pletcher horse on the Tapeta at a generous 5/1 in a blanket finish and then I was at Tampa where they had two graded stakes on the turf.  I'd backed Lady Speightspeare in the Tropical Park Oaks here and I thought the rider - Emma Jayne Wilson, who I'm a fan of at Woodbine - didn't handle her well out of the final turn that cost her a narrow defeat.  Trouble comments in the form indicated she'd "jumped tracks" and she looked clearly best in the Gr 3 Endeavour.  Led into the final 50 yards when caught on the line by a Chad Brown runner at 7/1 odds.  Sigh.  Made even worse by the fact earlier in the day I'd had a Chad Brown runner on the Tampa turf at 3/5 who finished off the board.....zigging when I should have been zagging.  Next on the sheet was the La Premier Day Starlet for 3yo.  Only two in here had ever gone a mile and Free Like A Girl was one of them.  I thought she would prove best and was a fair program favorite at 5/2 odds.  The crowd hammered here to 1/5 by post time.  Right to the front and walked around the track as much the best.   Two weeks ago I'd received a card in the mail to come to GP today and get a "FREE" Gulfstream Park pullover.  These were offered only to 1stBet customers, unless you bet $50 with them today and/or bought a program.  But my card said to just come pick it up.  When they began giving them out the line was LONG.  I told myself, I don't NEED a pullover so if later in the day there's no line and it's meant to be, I'll go get one.  As I was heading to cash my ticket on Free Like A Girl I noticed no one was at the counter.  Stepped up, showed my card and the guy said, "What size?" and handed it to me.  Smart move Mr. Mark!

I WIN!  Free pullover thanks to my Xpressbet Reward Points

Fourth in a GP stakes on the turf where I literally wrote, ".... The biggest question – for ME – will be if after this race I’m saying out loud, “WHY did you go AGAINST Todd Pletcher in a 3yo stakes race at Gulfstream?” but that’s what I’m going to do here ..."  And yes, that filly won at a BIG 5/1 price.  What WAS I thinking?  Got a kinda of a reprieve when Prisoner went wire to wire in an Aqueduct non-winners of two event and paid $6.40 allowing me to cash for over $30.  Ran 2nd at 3/5 in the Grade 3 Forward Gal for the 3yo fillies looking to go on to the Ky Oaks with Shug McGaughey's unbeaten Radio Days.  Like so, SO many of my horses, she broke slowly and for a horse that's usually on the lead, that's almost always deadly.  Made a big effort and was second best, but that did me no good.  Right after that in the other Tampa turf event, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay I took last year's winner Get Smokin.  Was allowed to be a big 5/1 price and was loose on the lead.  Opened up by multiple lengths into the lane but like my other Tampa stakes pick, nailed in the final strides.....second AGAING.  In the La Premier Sprint Bertie's Galaxy had beaten every one in the field except a one-start maiden (what's HE doing in here?).  Right to the front and long gone.

After a Pletcher returnee was a dismal 6th I was inside watching the simulcasts waiting for Aqueduct's feature, the Grade 3 Withers for 3yo colts when I looked up and saw the 3rd at Santa Anita was a minute from post time.  The #5 horse was 1/5 - who's that?  Opened my Xpressbet app on my phone - it's Shaaz, I know that horse, for Bob Baffert with John Velazquez.  I'm GOING IN!  I dashed to the windows and got $15 to win.  Tracked the 19/1 front runner into the lane and then couldn't get by.  Seriously, second AGAIN.  But as I watched I thought, maybe I'm just being hopeful but it seemed to me that twice Johnny V had taken up and/or altered course.  Waited, waited, and finally....

Oh that's right disqualified after a LONG review - clever boy I DID have a winner :)  Got a second winner in New York when Todd Pletcher's Golden Code wired the finale.  In retrospect I don't know why I only went in for the minimum here other than I know all the "good 3yo" runners for Pletcher are in Florida and that concerned me that this one, in for a tag, was in New York.  Still it was my 9th winner.  The "BIG ONE" at Delta Downs was the Louisiana Premier Day Championship and I liked Lang's Day.  When I re-read the analysis I had written I became a big concerned, and here's why.  Lang's Day is a closer, big time closer.  That's a problem on a six furlong track like this with a short stretch to start off with, and almost all the runners today had been on the lead; the others had been close up into the turn.  Still, I'd written that it looked like there would be a good set-up for his late kick.  The gates opened and he plummeted to last.  Ok, I know he belongs there but how about we stay in the same zip code?  Down the back stretch you could see all the runners but one - yes, Lang's Day....not even in the TV picture.  As the field was approaching the far turn, there was a blur with a #2 saddle cloth on it as the horse began picking off horses.  WIDE and I mean WIDE through the turn he continued to run by rivals and when they straightened for home he was fourth just two off the leader.  This will be close with the finish line so close.  UP IN TIME!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Ten winners on the day and five of them from Delta Downs.  I will say this as a final note regarding the Saturday racing.  I DID have two wins at Gulfstream from ten selections.  Long-time Gulfstream analyst Ron Nicoletti also only had two winners.  And hottie-handicapper Acacia Courtney ended the day with ZERO wins - none.  Worse, of the eleven races where they all list their top ten selections....in SEVEN of the races she didn't even have the winner in her top three choices.  I told you it was a wide-open card!  Sunday I had several selections at Gulfstream and I contemplated handicapping Santa Anita because THEIR two initial prep races for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks were today.  Was undecided so I didn't - but when I got up on Sunday morning I decided I would.  Looked through them and came up with five selections.  At Gulfstream we continued the week's patter as I scored in only one race from a total of eight picks.  And yes, FOUR of the losses saw me run 2nd (one was a Pletcher maiden at a giant 7/1 price).  The one winner was Todd Pletcher's Favor who ran off in a 3yo allowance going a mile - I think stakes company is next for this filly.

As the So Cal opener approached the TVG analysts all agreed that MY pick was NOT a favorite they'd like.  They liked my second choice.  Yes, second, again.  In the 3rd it was the Grade 3 Las Virgenes for the fillies.  Adare Manor would be ultra hard to beat IF she ran back to her last when earning a 92 Beyer.  The Bob Baffert filly pressed the front runner to the far turn, took over and drew off, drawing a "WOW" on my comments sheet.  VERY talented.  Came right back (after two "PASS" races) and won a MSW with Mark Glatt's Quick Buck.

WOW!

The eighth was the featured Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis for the 3yo colts.  Baffert's Messier SHOULD win, but the problem was that (a) he'd drawn the rail (b) he was a front runner making the rail draw even more tricky and (c) there was other speed in the race....would he be caught up in a duel?  The good news was John Velazquez got him away well, the bad news was that BOTH the other two speedsters were glued to him.  The three of them matched strides through more than moderate splits to the far turn.  "We're about to find out how good this guy is" I thought as I watched.  Johnny V flicked his wrists and he quickly separated from the other two....one completely couldn't keep up and the other was working hard to stay within range.  I think we got him if we have anything left, but can we hold off the late runner?  Into the stretch without moving a muscle Velazquez let the colt coast home by a widening dozen or more....if Adare Manor had been "WOW" this was "WOW SQUARED!"

I now sat at 3-for-4 on the day and my pick in the finale I had initially looked past.  But in reading DRF handicapper Brad Free's comments he seemed pretty confident.  I listed him as a bet but after cashing for the third time I thought I'd pressed my luck enough.  The finale pick did win but in a heart-attack, life-or-death photo finish that I would not have been sure I'd won!  It was a good week.  The highlight for the racing next weekend is it's "Sam Davis Day" at Tampa with is their final prep before the mid-spring Tampa Bay Derby.  Then on Sunday Kim and I are off to Denver for three nights for an anniversary get away to enjoy some cold weather and snow!

Holy Bull Day Highlights

Social Media This Week.....

A big highlight for me on Saturday, but first early in the week, Jayce Birch posted a photo of her outfit again - reminded me of the hockey jersey necklines and I told her it looks better on her :)

Then on Wednesday we were very much looking forward to the kickoff episode of "Celebrity Big Brother."  As I was watching the CBS-4 local news, "my girl" Lauren Pastrana did a short promo piece on the show.  I took a pic of her on air, and you'll note the time in the lower corner that she did this on air - 5:22 pm.  I messaged her that we were huge fans and asked if she was.  That message was sent, as you can see in the highlight at 5:25 pm, three minutes later.  OBVIOUSLY she is on air, and on the anchor desk.  Her reply, not simply a "LIKE" - which would have been cool enough - a full message was sent as you can see by the second highlighted time at 5:31 pm WHILE SHE WAS ON AIR.  I just find that really cool.  I try to imagine her sitting there and she looks at her phone and sees my message, reaches down and clicks "LIKE" or types to me.  :)

Then, the first "big" highlight came on Friday.  Turned on the CBS-4 news and my other "most favorite gal-pal/new anchor" Karli Barnett was on the Friday anchor desk.  Karli usually does the weekends.  So I reached out to her - note the time of 5:06 pm, while on the air - and told her how nice it was to see her on the anchor desk.  Two very cool things....first, her reply - much like the above with Lauren - Karli wrote back at 5:15 pm WHILE ON THE AIR.  But here's the best part.  I reached out to her via Twitter, and you'll note my "handle" of mallan56racing - but when she replied, she called me by name.  I looked and she has nearly 5,000 followers and yet she remembered from over a month ago that "mallan56racing" and "Mark Love" on Facebook are one in the same.  THAT'S pretty cool.

The biggest event on social media came Saturday.  I was at the races and I sent out a message to Karli on Twitter.  And she answered me, again by name.  Again, cool like the above.  But what was really, REALLY cool was this.....as you can see on my message I asked if she was chatting live on Facebook.  So that evening when I signed on I "said" to her on air, "Happy Saturday Karli!" and her live reply on air was, "Hey Mark, happy Saturday!  Hope you had a wonderful day at the races!" - and you can see this clip and the second clip when she's happy I had a winning day.  So, again, that she (a) recognized me as one and the same person, and (b) remembered I'd been at the races.  Very cool.  I also think, though I can't prove it obviously, but Karli's comment " 'See' you this weekend" would be in reference that she knows I am a frequent/regular participant in her Facebook chats.  Why else would she'd say she'd "see" me?  Very cool indeed.

Karli hopes I had a good day at the races....

Karli is glad I had a good day

Pegasus Day / Pegasus Week

 

Typically, as you know if you read my journals, I walk you through a recap of the week and the highlight day - almost always on Saturday - is down the page......but with this week being the big Pegasus World Cup, I figured I'd start off with the highlights from the BIG day, and big it was, before getting on to the rest of the action.  The first thing you'll note as you look at the photos is that I'm in a leather jacket, and if you look closely I also have a long-sleeve shirt AND a sweater vest!  That's because when we woke up it was in the low 40's as a big-time cold front swept through Friday - dumped over two feet of snow in New England and dropped temperatures there into the single digits so I guess we can't complain - and the high for the day Saturday didn't even reach 60 degrees.  Add in the always present "Gulfstream breeze" and it was a chilly but glorious weather day for watching and wagering on horse racing.  

First post at Gulfstream was at 11:30 and I must mention I was so, SO happy that when we arrived the "security check" was simply to walk through one of those security gates and show our tickets...no emptying of pockets or mask-enforcement, etc.  The opener was a nine furlong event on the all weather and it was the "South Beach Starter Handicap."  Very few in the field had ever run on the Tapeta and none had gone the nine furlong trip.  But, Yamato had run on this surface, and won.  AND he'd won on the turf going a mile and a half.  With top rider Luis Saez I felt confident.  Sat mid-pack into the far turn, picked off horses and took the lead in mid-stretch to win.  

Missed in the second but I got another winner in the opener at Tampa (proved to be the ONLY winner from Oldsmar today) when Ace Destroyer edged into the lead at the top of the stretch and held the field safe.  What was MOST interesting was as he moved into fourth approaching the far turn the labels at the bottom of the video showed #3 to be "Zuri" - who's that?  Pulled out my ticket and I had the #3 but I was CERTAIN I had the right race and name.  When posing in the winner's circle the name was right.  What was up with that?  Missed the next two at GP and the opener at Oaklawn before cashing my first bet at Laurel where it was "Winter Carnival Day" featuring six listed stakes.  Cordmaker looked tons the best on paper and his last two Beyers should have had him win by daylight.  BUT those were around two turns.  Still I like him to win the Jennings Stakes going a one-turn mile.  He was 1/9 early and I considered upping the bet but I recalled he'd been the 6/5 favorite last year and ran third.  So I held the bet at $10.  Was VERY close, but he won at 2/5 odds.

Came right back in the Geisha Stakes, the very next race at Laurel where Kiss the Girl and Artful Splatter were facing off again.  Kiss the Girl had run third in two straight stakes, two back finishing behind Artful Splatter.  Maybe you'd like that one, but she had not been to the winner's circle in a LONG time and after they'd seen each other 'Girl's last race was a very close third at Aqueduct where you know the company is a bit stronger than in Baltimore.  Tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, split horses and got on even terms with 'Splatter and then drew off :)

An interesting side story here, I was going to cash my bet on the Cordmaker win and make my bet for the next at Gulfstream.  Looked up at the screens and the fifth at Laurel was ten minutes out.  I thought, "Don't I have a bet there?"  Looked on my summary selection sheet, nope.  I still wasn't sure about that so I turned in my papers to my Laurel analysis page....sure did, I had the bet on Kiss the Girl and somehow that had been left off the page.  Fortunately Keith was not playing in Maryland so he didn't miss the winner.  I missed in the first of the graded stakes at Gulfstream the mile and a half Grade 3 La Prevoyante when Todd Pletcher's Always Shopping ran 3rd in a four-horse blanket finish.  Our seats were right at the finish line and right behind the viewing stand.  As soon as the number went up for the winner, GP analyst and my "Twitter pal" Acacia Courtney jumped up and down and hugged the other two girls there with her.  I told Keith I bet that horse was owned by her future father-in-law.  She was, so I tweeted her a message and she answered me back minutes later....that was cool.

I scored back-to-back winners at Oaklawn where it was "Southwest Stakes Day" - their first step towards the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.  The first winner was in a starter allowance at even money.  But the second was more noteworthy.  It was the Martha Washington Stakes, which was the first prep for the fillies hoping for a date to the Oaks on the First Friday in May.  Back in the '80s, yes literally the 1980's the king of the Triple Crown races and the top American trainer was D.Wayne Lucas, "the Coach."  He still runs horses and still has some in the big ones but they are almost always longshots.  But today in the Washington he had Secret Oath.  Her last out win earned a huge 93 speed figure and if she ran back to that today she was LONG gone.  She was in the back third as the approached the far turn, but was gaining while VERY wide - that can't be good I thought.  Swept by horses and got on even terms with the leaders as they spun into the stretch.  She accelerated in an instant and buried the field.  Good lookin' filly - happy for "the Coach!"

Missed at Laurel before finally getting into the winner's circle again at Gulfstream.  It was the Grade 3 William L. McKnight (an older Calder featured event) going a mile and a half on the grass.  Todd Pletcher's Abaan had gone wire-to-wire in the TWO MILE H.Allen Jerkens Stakes here last time out so the distance wouldn't be a problem and I thought he looked like a front-running winner under top rider Luis Saez today.  But he was beaten to the front before they got to the first turn.  Sat patiently off that one to the far turn, cruised to the front, opened up and was long gone.  WHOOOO HOOOO my first big stakes winner on the Pegasus card!

My next win, the eighth of the day, came again at Maryland in the Xtra Heat Stakes for 3yo fillies.  Both Luna Belle and Beneath The Stars had run 2nd to the best filly sprinter in Maryland, Buy The Best.  And they'd earned similar figures.  But TO ME, here today it looked like Beneath The Stars would be compromised by having to run too fast early and/or duel which would set up Luna Belle's late kick.  Could not have gone more perfectly to script as Luna Belle blew by to win as the short-priced favorite.

The ninth at Gulfstream was the inaugural running of the Grade 3, $500K Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf.  In the days leading up to this big day many online analysts had talked about how Chad Brown's filly, Regal Glory might be the shortest priced favorite on the day and even the most likely winner.  I DID think she was a very likely winner but didn't make her my best bet.  She had the only two triple digit figures on the page, in her last two races AND those two races were both Grade 1 events.  She'd been a just miss second in the Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland and then WON the Grade 1 Matriarch at Santa Anita.  But she'd been off for a few months.  No problem for the Brown barn.  Have to admit I was more than a little concerned when she was still well back approaching the far turn, but she circled the field, got to the leaders in mid-stretch and edged clear as the handy winner.  Tripled the bet on my THIRD winner at GP!

Missed at Oaklawn and Tampa and "won" a race at Laurel when somehow I missed making the bet and my pick ran off the board - sometimes better to be lucky that good!  Got another winner at Oaklawn where I'd made Favorite Outlaw a tentative bet depending on the wagering.  He and another in here had finished 2-3 in a photo last time out and I could easily see betting one or the other.  But 'Outlaw was taking all the money and proved best.  I walked up to the window to bet my next couple races and one of those was my "BET of the Day" at Laurel in the Fire Plug Stakes.  I looked up and Wonderwherecraigis was sitting on the board at 1/9 in the early betting.  I said to my girl, "Eighth race at Laurel......$20 to win on #2."  She punched it in and on the display screen I saw the message "ERROR" and she looked at it briefly then said, "the eighth race has already been run."  I looked over my shoulder and sure enough the board said Laurel-Race 9.  People were waiting and I didn't want to take a chance so I just said, "OK, $20 WIN #2 in the NINTH at Laurel."  She looked at me and said, "Are you sure," and I said yes.  He'd crossed the line first in three straight stakes - been DQ'd two back in the Grade 3 DeFrancis Dash which had been ok by me because I had the 2nd place finisher so I got the WIN :)  Looked best on paper and the lone speed.  Right to the front and clear from gate to wire as the short-priced favorite.

Missed in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper at a one-turn mile when Todd Pletcher's Fearless missed the break, which was crucial because he's a near-the-front kind of guy.  Came running late but was 2nd best to the second choice who I'd never bet.  Finally it was time for the featured events.....the first was the Grade 1, $1 Million Pegasus Turf.  Last year Todd Pletcher's Colonel Liam had been my BET of the Day and my son Jeff and his buddy had cashed big tickets on him.  He'd won two more races and then ran poorly in June and had not been seen since.  So today he was trying to become the first horse to be a repeat winner of a Pegasus race and he'd have to do it off a long layoff.  I felt confident however because not only is Pletcher very good off a layoff but he'd been quoted prior to the race saying that he only would have run Colonel Liam if EVERYTHING in his training had gone perfectly and that it had.  He would have to track down his speedy stable mate, Never Surprised who'd gone wire-to-wire in the Tropical Park Derby in his last start - the same race Colonel Liam used as a prep last year.  I considered him but when he drew post 12 I liked him even less.  He got to the front but Colonel Liam was tracking him in a closer position than he was last year and when asked on the turn I knew he'd win.  Got to 'Surprised in the lane, dueled for a 16th and edged clear to win!

Was surprised when I lost with a short priced favorite at Tampa and now it was time for THE BIG ONE!  The $3 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup.  The first thing I have to tell is that it was also fast approaching post time for the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn where my BEST BET, Newgrange was trying to stamp his ticket to move towards the $1 Million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  And I wanted to be out in the paddock amidst all the hoop-la for the Pegasus.  But I didn't want to miss seeing the race.  Newgrange was going for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert who it seems ships in a 3yo to Arkansas EVERY year to win the prep race (or two) and the Arkansas Derby.  In spite of being under a ban to run a horse at Churchill Downs - still in litigation, as is the outcome of LAST YEAR's Derby winner - he had what looked to be a good one here.  That Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, who'd moved his tack to So Cal to ride for Baffert this winter, came to Hot Springs to ride this one just added to the appeal.  Was tracking very wide all the way into and around the far turn, got to the leaders and edged clear with my big bet on him!

So back to the Pegasus....From the get-go I'd thought my best bet would be Life Is Good.  He'd looked like the most likely Kentucky Derby winner since American Pharoah since last spring, then he was injured.  Suffered his first loss when coming back off a LONG layoff and the injury to run in a Gr 1 sprint at Saratoga.  Then blitzed rivals in a Gr 1 at Belmont and won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.  This was the same race that the last two winners of the Pegasus (City of Light and Knicks Go) had used as preps to win the Pegasus.  And I thought he is one of the most talented thoroughbreds of my generation.  REALLY a fast horse.  Once the Bob Baffert issues began several of his big horses were moved to other trainers and Life Is Good became Todd Pletcher's to care for off the layoff.  The problem with betting him was that last year's winner, Knicks Go was back to defend his title.  And he'd gone a perfect 4-for-4 around two turns in his last four with huge numbers including the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic.  He's a classic front runner and just runs them off their feet AND he drew the rail.  How foolish is it to bet the near-certain 2021 Horse of the Year who's won four in a row including the Classic AND he's the defending champion here?  AND Life Is Good had never gone nine furlongs before.  But as I wrote in my analysis, I just think he's got SO much potential.  And I thought he'd sit just off the hip of the favorite and then run away from him late.  Went back and forth about how much to bet....maybe bet them both...maybe just watch?  But I just felt Life Is Good would win.  Then I read Todd Pletcher's comments that he's NEVER had a horse train so well for a race.  Uh oh.  Finally, I thought I got the break I needed when Xpressbet announced they were running a promotion that if you bet online and your horse ran 2nd or 3rd in the Pegasus you'd get up to $20 refunded.  So I planned to make the $15 WIN bet on him online.  And I did right before going into the paddock to see him (#4 in the background below).

But I still had "that feeling" and so as I went up to make my last set of bets for the day I made the bet with real money.  I figured, now, that I was making "only" a $15 bet because if I was wrong, certainly he'd run 2nd or third and I'd get the online bet back.  If he won, he WOULD be my BET of the Day which I thought he deserved to be.  As the horses approached the gate and Keith and I discussed the race we debated about how the two horses would run....would they duel from gate to wire?  And I finally said, "obviously I want to win, but more than anything I hope it's just an epic showdown like it's billed to be."  The gates opened, the crowded roared - it was deafening! - and Knicks Go broke sharply out of the gate, but Life Is Good EXPLODED out of the gate and in three jumps he was in front, on the rail and three in front of Knicks Go.  The champ had to be thinking, WHAT just happened.  Life Is Good extended the lead down the backstretch to nearly half a dozen and was going very fast.  Keith remarked, "he's going too fast" but I looked at him and replied, "I don't think he's even asked him to run, he's well within himself!"  Sure enough, maintained the lead through the turn and was asked to finish it off in the stretch.  Knicks Go made a courageous run to be second but was never a threat and the crowd roared even louder as the new champion cruised under the wire.  So confidently handled that jockey Irad Ortiz was petting him through the final fifty yards, not riding him!  WOW he's soooooo good!  They went off as co-favorites, both at 4/5 and I will collect over $50 on my bets.

This was the FIFTH winner of the day at Gulfstream, a great day and my FOURTEENTH winner over all - exactly 40% wins.

Was disappointed after we FINALLY got out of the parking lot and got home that none of my late bets scored, but still it was a great day.

Pegasus Week Racing:  Good Decision Week

So here's how the rest of the week went, and as you can see, I've called this week "Good Decision" week!   best part was his odds floated up late and he was NOT the favorite, cashed for almost $40 to start off the big day!  The Wednesday action started off with a win by my top choice being the "obvious" choice at 4/5, and he ran sixth - so you'd never have convinced me at that point that the week would be one of "good decisions!"  But in the second race I noted that Pretty Rachel would be nearly as certain as the first race top choice.  This filly however quickly cleared the field and went wire to wire at a short price.  

In the fourth I thought the favorite was worth betting against and went with a 5/1 price play.  But that one scratched.  Both the on-air analysts remarked that Chacalosa would be hard to beat in this spot.  I re-examined my analysis and I'd said that I wondered about her Chicago based trainer, Larry Rivelli - who does very well here in the winter - putting his horse in this claiming race after she'd won a stakes race and a starter allowance in her previous starts.  But now with my top pick out, I went with her and doubled the bet.  Split rivals on the turn and opened up to win handily as the public choice - the first "good decision" of the week!

Missed in the 5th and in the 7th race I wondered about Saffie Joseph's Leviosa as the favorite.  But for years - before he had some really good horses, he was excellent with claiming horses, putting them where they belong.  So entry into this starter looked solid to me.  The analysts online also talked about her and noted she was the probable lone speed at this abbreviated 5 1/2 furlong trip.  I upped the bet!  Right to the front and never looked back!  "Good Decision #2!"

Thursday I didn't like anyone in the first THREE races, wow.  In the fourth a horse I thought looked awfully good ran third at 5/2.  Then somehow I didn't bet the fifth.  Thought I had, but later in the day when I checked my wagers for a payoff I was missing a bet - this one.  WHOOOO HOOO - "Good Decision #3!"  Missed, for real, in the 6th at 6/5 before finally getting a winner in the 7th.  Hot Peppers had an outside draw in a short 5 1/2 furlong event and looked like Leviosa did yesterday as the lone speed, and like that one, also for Saffie Joseph.  Right to the front....took pressure, cleared and held on late.

Right back in the eighth with "Good Decision #4" on Hot Peppers in a 3yo entry level allowance.  I was only going to bet the minimum because this filly had just won her maiden last time out.  BUT, despite how difficult it is to win first-time-winners, that was offset by the fact she'd run off by 14 3/4 lengths.  YOWZA.  Even if she regressed many points off that winning Beyer she'd still win here.  Everyone loved her chances to I decided to up the bet.  Dueled to the turn and just when you would think, "well first time winners, that's why she caved," she spurted clear and won by daylight.  NICE!

Friday was the BEST "good decision" day of the week for sure!  Much like the fifth on Thursday I overlooked and/or "decided" to pass on the 2nd race - and that top choice did not win.  "Good Decision #5!"  In the fourth race it looked to me like Tuwaim for trainer Ralph Nicks would be difficult to beat.  I did have mixed feelings.  On the one hand, which was why I did bet her, in her debut she'd been a best-of-the-rest 2nd in a maiden claimer like this and the show filly had been eight clear of the rest of the field AND had come right back to win.  The 79 Beyer Tuwain earned would win for fun.  BUT....that had come on the slop and in October before the "big horses" show up.  Hmmmm.   But the Nicks barn was winning at a big average and was nearly 30% off the layoff.  The new analyst at GP remarked he'd never take her at a short price, well Brian, I bet the horses that I think will win....period.  Tracked the loose on the lead 2nd choice to the stretch, grinding away....JUST up in time.  Whew!

Here it is, THE BEST DECISION - well, maybe going "all in" on Life Is Good in the Pegasus was the best, but that's something we can debate later!  The sixth today was a maiden special event for 3yo going five furlongs on the turf.  This seemed oh-so-obvious to me......I liked Jonathan Thomas' first time starter High Front.  First of all, the par for a winning Beyer at this level was an 81 and the SIX to High Front's inside had earned last race Beyers of:  1, 63, 52, 40, 66, and 27 - so, uh NO to those colts.  The other two runners were first time starters from barns that won with only 5% of those, so NO to those as well.  So a good spot for a first timer.  But check this out.....Jonathan Thomas first time starters win at a 31% clip; first time turf runners at 22%; turf sprinters 31% and maiden specials at 31%.  Oh so clear to me....quickly clear to the front by half a dozen and walked with it.  But here's the thing, NONE of the analysts on air at Gulfstream put High Front in their TOP FOUR.  Had top jockey Luis Saez, so one of the favorites, right.....

A HUGE PAYOUT!

And about half an hour later I was looking for the photo on Twitter and I saw that TVG hottie handicapper Christina Blacker had said on air and posted online:

And you know a lot, A LOT of people watch the TVG broadcast (I prefer the Gulfstream live feed), and yet STILL collected over $80.  BIG TIME GOOD DECISION!  Missed on the last two of the day, but had a sharp profit for the day.  Headed into Saturday feeling good and then had that big day - told Kim afterwards that THOSE are the kinds of days that I live for all year ..... big time racing, crowds, national (and in this case INTERNATIONAL) attention, and I'm not only there, but right on the finish line.  WOW.  Sunday was anticlimactic as I only had one winner heading into the final race of the day.  That one winner was Todd Pletcher's maiden Beside Herself who wired a MSW turf route easily....

So in the finale, an entry level allowance-optional claiming, Mid Day Image looked to be the controlling speed like he'd been when wiring the Claiming Crown Emerald on Opening Weekend.  Right to the front, took some token pressure, enough that I thought, hmmmm, but clear into the lane until the final strides.....PHOTO FINISH!  I thought it was awfully close, wasn't really surprised when I lost.  Interesting that when I did the stats for the week, after five full days of racing and over fifty bets the bottom line for profit or loss came down to this final photo finish....wow.

Pegasus World Cup Day Highlights 2022

You can see photos from the day at the track with all the celebs and fashion outfits HERE - what a day!

With the conclusion of racing on Sunday we came to the end of the second month of the Championship Meet....

Social Media This Week....

Gal-pal Lauren Pastrana posted a cute picture to note the launch of the new CBS app and I let her know I'd downloaded it :)

Early in the week a horse that Ron Nicoletti had made a joke about - that got the BEST reaction from Acacia, but wasn't very funny - was running again.  I asked for a repeat "performance" :)

On Thursday night we went to the Panthers home hockey game and met up with our friend Joanie and her hottie-daughter Michael-Anne.

While at the races, the first stakes event was won by a horse trained by Christophe Clement.  His son is engaged to our very own Acacia Courtney.  So right after the race I messaged her a congrats, and she messaged me back within minutes....while analyzing the races from the paddock :)

Saturday evening after we got home from the racing CBS 4 Weekend Anchor Karli Barnett hosted another one of her Facebook LIVE chats.  I chirped in.  The first question I asked her was about going to the horse races and she not only has never been but didn't know there was horse racing in the area until this week.  THAT's hard to believe!  She also answered questions I asked about coming to Gulfstream to build her retirement (said she was WELL underway on that); I asked if she grew up in the northern part of the US when the conversation turned to the cold and referred to a photo she'd posted from her parents in Connecticut (no, she grew up in Georgia); asked if she'd go to a major network anchor job if it was in a cold climate (said she was happy where she was but would go anywhere for a big position); asked if she'd ever been to Denver and told her we were going to get some "snow time"  (she giggled at that and said no she'd never been but had always wanted to go there);  and finally, I asked if she'd ever been to a Panthers game - since I was watching that on the TV - and she said no but would like to go.  It's noteworthy, truly it is, that this all took place on Facebook where I am identified obviously by my name.  But when I sent her a Twitter message the next day that came from my "Twitter handle" - mallanracing56.  Some time ago I'd tweeted her that I was the same guy on Twitter and Facebook.  So it was very interesting that her reply to me ON TWITTER saw her use my first name, which she obviously remembered from the previous conversation.  That was cool :)