Holy Bull Week
For many different reasons it was a very good week. From a racing perspective I had an outstanding day at the track on Saturday. And during the week I had a lot of interaction with my social media pals which always makes for a good week. And the highlight, from my social life, was getting together with my long time most favorite former Western High student, Amanda. The big news, all week long was the weather. The country had been absolutely blasted last week by a gigantic snow storm and cold front which brought cooler temps here. But Saturday another arctic blast rolled through and this one got all the way to us dropping the ACTUAL temperatures into the mid-30's and the feels-like into the mid-20's. And before you ask, YES I did jump in the pool on that arctic Sunday morning.....mostly just because I wanted to be able to say I did. Nearly the moment I dropped beneath the water level the thought ran through my head "this probably is NOT a good idea!" Quickly one more drop down and out I went. But I DID the "arctic plunge." The racing began on Thursday where temperatures were in the mid-70's during the afternoon and from the ten races on the Thursday card I had three selections. In the first four races I did mention a horse in three of them, but none offered any kind of betting angle I was happy with. Finally in R5, a $12.5K claiming sprint I found a horse I liked. Proud American was stepping up in class, but what drew my attention is that he had been claimed from his last by trainer Carlos David who's scored with a third of his nearly 50 claims in their first start. Sent off as the 4/5 choice he pressed the 5/1 front runner into the turn, then took over willingly and drew off.
I ran third at 4/1 in the eighth before scoring with my last bet in the finale. R9 was a starter optional claimer going a mile and a sixteenth over the synthetic. Ashmia was the BEST of the Day for the DRF analyst and looked like an odds on winner to me on paper. Of the 79 running lines in the Form, NONE of them would beat her last SIX numbers. Oh. Sporting a 7-for-11 record on the Tapeta and with Irad on board she looked awfully formidable. Tracked the longshot leader to the lane, took over and drew off as the 2/5 favorite. And for the day I closed out 2-for-3 with a $5 profit :)
Friday I did find four selections, three of them minimum plays. Ran 2nd with one and didn't hit the board with the others. I'd been texting with my "Disney Girl" Amanda for weeks now as we tried to find a day and time to get together. On Wednesday I reached out to her and told her on my FB memories it showed that it had been this very week, Holy Bull Week, last year that we'd last been together to catch up. She texted me back that she thought she'd be free and later that evening she let me know she was. So we met for lunch the next day and spent two hours catching each other up on what had been going on. Amanda has been such a good gal-pal since getting out of college and we enjoy chatting, never running out of things to talk about. Here's a look back at me & Amanda thru the years.
Saturday arrived and Keith and I were pretty convinced by the morning that we'd be best served to play the races from the Sunrise Simulcast Center. When the Gulfstream analysts on site noted early on that a light rain had started and fans were scrambling for cover we knew we'd made the right choice. And even though the rain didn't last long, the air temperature and the breeze would have made for a most uncomfortable day in the stands I'm convinced. That was validated to me - not that I need to be validated you understand :) - when the winner of the Holy Bull walked into the winner's circle and the drone shot overhead showed the width of the grandstand with less than a dozen brave souls sitting in the seats. Wise choice Mr. Mark! I'd planned on playing multiple tracks today but waited before handicapping. The Fair Grounds came on line mid-week and not only were there no stakes events, it was a nine race card with pretty average races, a no. Aqueduct and Laurel had entries but with the weather I was pretty sure neither would be running. I looked at Santa Anita and again, was not impressed. So I thought I'd play just Gulfstream. But Friday morning I remembered there were stakes at Tampa so I added that card. In the end I had fifteen selections on my sheet. Lost both the first two races at Gulfstream, finishing off the board in both at 5/2 odds. Race 4 was a maiden optional claimer for 3yo's and I thought Wall Street was a likely winner, though believed he would be short odds. He was favored on debut at Churchill but broke poorly and appeared to have just jogged around the track. Trainer Brad Cox is 27% second time out and Irad Ortiz took the call. Right to the front and was clear into turn. But turning for home was headed at the furlong pole. That's nearly always the kiss of death for front runners, but Wall Street was resurgent and edged back in front and crossed the line first!
Missed on the next two, including at 3/5 at Tampa with the DRF Best Bet - I wasn't convinced he was that likely and only went for a double investment. But at Gulfstream If Not For Luck got me back into the winner's circle. My original pick was scratched from this synthetic claiming sprint, but I'd noted in my analysis that 'Luck was clearly the one to fear. Was away at the back of the field and with the way the synthetic almost always favors speed, I had little hope. Especially when the field hit the far turn and he wasn't even on the screen. But like a shot out of a cannon he came flying down the middle of the track and blew by at the 16th pole!
Minutes later they were in the gate at Tampa for their sixth, a MSW 3yo sprint. I told Keith he would NOT like my pick, Current Yield. When asked to explain I told him that it was a Chad Brown horse and I knew from last week he shared by disdain for Brown's runners at GP who appear, again this year, to be prepping for Keeneland and not well meant. But I pointed out to him that at Tampa - for what ever reason, Brown seems to be "LIVE." Wasn't a fan of the rail draw but thought he was more than good enough to get the job done in an average field. Broke slowly - of course, which horses of mine don't? WOW - quickly recovered and joined three longshots on the front. Dueled as a foursome into the lane and then cut the corner and spurted to a clear lead. Opened up in the final furlong and drew away. The best part - went off at 2/1 and with my double investment I cashed for $30.
Ran 2nd and 3rd in the next two....the first at 3/5 and the second in the first stakes of the day, the Tampa Bay on the turf in Oldsmar. The stakes action began at Gulfstream in the eighth with the Swale Stakes. Many years ago this seven furlong event served as a first step to the Kentucky Derby for runners looking to stretch out in the late spring, but now it's just another 3yo listed event. Todd Pletcher was sending out a very talented 3yo, Class President. While his debut Beyer was impressive, he was facing winners for the first time AND drew the rail. That led me to Saffie Joseph's Solitude Dude. He had drawn the open air outside box and not only had an impressive debut win but had rolled in Tampa's Inaugural Stakes as the prohibitive 1/9 favorite. Irad landed here. Right to the front, confidently handled to the stretch. Asked and responded as he ran away to draw clear by nearly a pole with my triple investment on board. I'm 4-for-10 on the day and within range of getting even with my bankroll.
I only had five races left on the day, but two of them were my BEST Bets - one each at Tampa and Gulfstream. And much to my delight, I scored in four of the final five races. The eighth at Tampa was an entry level allowance and most of the time these races are too difficult to predict. But here, Todd Pletcher's Disruptor appeared to be a standout to me....IF the long layoff wasn't an issue. After a sharp third in his debut, the $1.1 Million sales grad had ran away to a daylight score earning a huge 92 Beyer. Pletcher sent him out for his first try against winners in the Grade 1 Florida Derby! Sent off at 3/1 he lost all chance at the start. Now off the long layoff he faced far easier. And I thought, if Pletcher was shipping here and not running in his own backyard, they had to be serious. Was away slowly (again, seriously?) but advanced five wide into third as they hit the turn. Glided past and drew off as much MUCH the best and I cashed for nearly $40. Next on my sheet was the Grade 3 Endeavour from Tampa on the grass. I did not like the favorite and thought that maybe Aussie Girl could get loose on the lead. Right to the front, backed the pace down and exploded away in the lane at a generous 4/1 price. WHOOOOOO HOOOOOO!
The Endeavour closed the Tampa program. I ran third at a big 6/1 price in Gulfstream's Grade 3 Forward Gal, the prep for the Gulfstream Park Oaks in two months. But my BEST of the Day in Hallandale was next in the Sweetest Chant on the turf for 3yo fillies. The FanDuel analysts were not convinced that Sister Troienne could continue winning. But for me, she'd lost in a dirt sprint debut, but had since gone four-for-four in her route races. That included two stakes - one on synthetic and the last over this turf course. I thought she looked as formidable as a 3yo filly could at this point in the year. Tracked the longshot leader while clear of the rest of the field to the turn. Exploded with a devastating turn of foot to clear quickly and drew off by as many as she pleased.
The final race on the card, and for me was the national feature, the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Again, much like the previous race, the on-air handicappers were nearly unanimous in NOT picking my top choice, Todd Pletcher's 3yo colt, Nearly. He'd been very impressive beating state-bred MSW, but his effort when drawing off against entry level foes going 7f here earlier looked like a real glimpse at a rising star. Loved the bullet work for today and long time partner Johnny Velazquez was in the irons. Right out of the gate Velazquez sat on the hip of the front running favorite. To me as I watched the race I thought he was sitting on a powder keg of horse while the front runner looked to be running with a lot of effort. On the turn Nearly swept to the front and drew off impressively. BINGO! Finished the day a remarkable 8-for-15 with a tidy profit!
Sunday I only hit on one of the four picks, but the one I hit, Paris Surprise, was an ironic winner since in a little over six weeks we depart on our next tip to...........yes, Paris!
26 /11 - 3 - 5 42% WINS ROI $2.08
With the end of the month it was time to total the numbers for the first half of the winter season. Improved the winning percentage from last year at this point by some five plus points while playing about the same number of races (four less). Compared to two years ago before the noticeable downgrade in quality of runners, I played nearly 150 less races this season compared to 2023-24.
Social Media this week.....
Our good friend Shelly lives in North Carolina which was completely buried by snow this weekend, and she posted a few pics. She's such a cute girl, always has been so I messaged her via FB and got an instant recognition.
My former student Jen - best known for going to the Univ of Colorado....getting very homesick, I visited her and was instrumental in getting her to stay...where she lives today - commented on my picture with Amanda and I messaged her saying I wished we could have one. That led to a long conversation via text. She expressed a desire to read my book and we made tentative plans for us to meet in May and I finally can meet her husband Davis.
Teri Hornstein and I exchanged messages. First, when Wawa unveiled a new flavor of coffee Teri wished she had Wawa's in Washington where she now lives. And the next day I had the AI program make a fictional Mark & Teri as I offered her Wawa coffee and she thought that was cool :) Finally I shared with her my coloring book my son Brad gave me and she thought that was a great gift :)
Lauren Pastrana and I exchanged several messages. Of note she thanked me for donating to her fund raising cause again this year and I shared with her my eye injection experience for the week. She wrote back that her father-in-law has a similar condition.
Far and away the "best" exchange came with my best gal-pal and most favorite former, Kimmy. She replied to my update on my eye. But I really enjoyed our exchange on Sunday morning about the weather. In particular when I told her I'd been brave (or foolish I guess you could say!) to jump into the pool when the feels like temps were in the 20's and almost immediately I got back a "Nooooooo" :) Loved the snow-covered pics from her - note I used one for the banner for this week!
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