Gulfstream 2025-26: Week 9

 Pegasus Weekend

The first REALLY big day of the meet - it was Pegasus Day on Saturday.  My typical $10 Saturday seats in a grandstand box near the finish line had run me $500 per ticket for today.  TRULY a big event if pricing is the criteria ;)  The Thursday card was a click better than most Thursday cards to date.  Although I have found it interesting oh this side note, that beginning in January....according to the calendar put out by Gulfstream prior to the start of the Championship Season....we were to begin going to five day weeks a couple of weeks ago, but still we start on Thursdays.  Of the ten races on the day I found selections I was willing to invest in for five of them.  The first race of the week that I bet on was the third, a 3yo claiming event going five panels on the all weather.  I liked Sillicum as an upset pick despite the fact that she'd never been short AND had never been on the Tapeta.  But. according to the DRF's Mike Welsh she'd looked good in the morning working with a runner who'd scored with a big figure in a MSW event off the work.  Not much of a fan of Welsh and his opinions typically do not carry much weight for me in my handicapping.  BUT the one thing he is very good at is analyzing works.  Sillicum tracked the leaders in mid-pack through the turn.  Swung wide into the clear heading for home and was just up in time.  Best part.....paid $9.60 and I was able to score for almost $25 to start the week off.

Doubled the bet on my next pick who went off at 3/5 and finished fourth - wow.  Despite my remarks above regarding Welsh I noted in the analysis for R6 that he was spot on naming Running On Time as clearly the one to beat.  Just missed for a richer price in start number two last time out and Irad Ortiz took the call.  Pressed the pace to the far turn then took off as easily best at a short price.  Ran second in with the 3/5 favorite to my second choice in the final wager of the day.

Early in the week I got a card in the mail from Gulfstream offering a free Pegasus hoodie to rewards members who were on track Friday.  I'll grant you that I didn't look at the card all that closely, but since Kim was leaving for Orlando in the afternoon I told Keith I planned to go out.  We figured - like most things at Gulfstream they would not be prepared when racing began so our plan was to have lunch and then hop in line.  I'd taken the mail card just in case.  Well turns out that was the only way to get the hoodie.  Completely chaotic distribution but I got mine so I was please.  I had one solid bet and in a 3yo MSW race I was pretty sure I'd bet one of three firsters.  The one "solid" bet ran third as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.  And one of the three firsters I picked won - not the one I bet.  Figures.  :)

Saturday:  Pegasus Day arrived with bright sunshine and warm temperatures.  Interesting in that we had just come off a weekend where temperatures were unseasonably cold in the mid-40s in the mornings and NEXT weekend is projected to be more of the same.  But with the whole world watching South Florida and the Pegasus World Cup card, we had Chamber of Commerce weather with warm sunshine and a high in the low 80's during the height of the day.  I had taken nearly two days to go through the big 13-race card, including eight stakes races, and as I told both Kim & Keith, I thought there was a better than average chance I'd go 0-for-13 on the day as none of the races had a definitive winner, not did I have a selection in any race that I couldn't make a case against while making a strong case for someone else in the race.  We left at 9:30am with an 11am first post.  We had very little traffic and parked close to the exit lane in the "other parking lot" - unlike where I usually park.  As soon as we walked in it was about 30 minutes to post time and I went to make the first three bets, while cashing left over tickets from two weeks ago.  My top choice, a tepid minimum bet one, had scratched.  I looked over my selection sheet and my second choice, Being Betty was the most likely winner but the reason I had not put her on top was that the barn and rider both had low win percentages.  Well, I thought, I'm not going to pass the race.  And then long-time Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti announced his picks and he had 'Betty on top.  Went into the Silks simulcast area to the back and found "my girl" Kimberly - who if you've forgotten is a blonde and has a twin (Karen-who works along side her) - and made my bets while chatting as we've come to do. 

Being Betty left the gate at a big 8/1 price and sat the perfect trip behind the embattled leaders.  I thought as they approached the far turn that I had a chance.....took the lead into the lane and opened up.  But then here came the closers....PHOTO FINISH.  I'd been chatting with the couple behind us, from Colorado on their first visit to Gulfstream, and he thought that the outside horse had nailed my horse on the inside.  But then the camera zoomed in on 'Betty and soon it was official.  Paid a huge $19.60 and I had a ticket worth nearly $50!

In the second, I liked Swing Vote in a 3yo MSW sprint.  She'd broken dead last but rallied for third in her debut.  Maybe today she'd break better. It was a wide open race, but you never know and I was playing since we were on track.  Was away slowly, but not as terribly as her debut.  Rallied on the turn, cleared off at the 16th pole and suddenly I'd gone two-for-two.  I joked with the lady who takes tickets and is "my friend," but I do not know her name - though she knows mine! - that I should go home and call it a perfect 2-for-2 day :)  But of course that wasn't happening.

Three of the next five races saw the winner pay huge prices and the other two, while one of the top three public choices were not the favorite.  Obviously I didn't have any of them.    The eighth was the  Grade 3 Fred Hooper.  I thought Knightsbridge from the Bill Mott barn and Life And Times from Todd Pletcher's barn would put on a show in a virtual match race.  But the Pletcher colt had only been out twice and I thought that Mott's more experienced runner would prevail.  They went at it through the far turn and then Knightsbridge drew off impressively.

The remainder of the day belonged to price horses with the winners paying $14.00, $33.20, $8.20, $11.20, and in the Pegasus I watched as one of my favorite horses, Skippylongstockings rallied at better than 20/1 to win the big prize.  Shook my head - though I'd never have considered him seriously in this spot, I've cashed on him so many times at odds on.  Go figure :)

The day's results showed littered tickets everywhere with so many big prices.  I'd had one win from the one race I bet out of town so having seriously considering I may go 0-for on the day, I was content with a 4-for-14 day and a small loss of about $25.

Sunday I thought I'd use my AI program (remember I'd mentioned earlier about writing a fictional story?) to put ME in the winner's circle with the Pegasus trophies.  That's a pretty good likeness - but like in my fictional book, the "fictional Mark" isn't a true match for the "real Mark," but close enough that at a first glance you MIGHT think it's me :)  I hit two more wins on Sunday with Code Review and Sheshighmaintainence in back to back races to finish the week an ok 8-for-26

Social Media this week......

I've said many times before in writing this section of my journals how "important" my human contact is with my online friends. This week, despite having my wife here until Friday, and having our buddy Keith here for the winter, still....it was a significant part of my week, and a "feel good" experience.  And I will say that this week was even more so with a couple of them.   At the beginning of the week I reached out to former weekend anchor Teri and she messaged me back to "stay warm."  Better than just the "like" I've received of late.

The first of the "that felt good" return contacts.  Karli Barnett and I used to message and/"talk" on her Facebook LIVE chats very often.  But since she's moved to Atlanta that's become less so.  This week Karli posted about getting an award at the newsroom and I commented on it.  Instead of a "like" or a simple "Thank you," or an even better, "Thank you Mark" Karli wrote back, "Mark Love thank you my friend."  That it was more than a standard reply made me smile.

Our Orland realtor, and now ew friend Sophia and I continue to stay in touch and I believe she's as sincere as I am about once we are up there, growing our friendship and getting together.  I reached out to her about Pegasus Day and she was delayed in reply.  I didn't think anything of it....the girl has two little ones, a husband and is a working woman - AND realtors are often more busy on the weekend than during the week (I think).  But when she replied she began by apologizing for not responding sooner.  Such a sweet girl, their friendship is appreciated.

Lauren Pastrana and I communicate often, you know if you read this section regularly.  We've become about as "normal" of friends (I think) as you can be considering we've never met in person.  So FOR ME it didn't feel unusual or out of character that when I saw her early in the week doing her solo at six thing and she struck me as being particularly pretty that evening, I messaged her to that effect.  I smiled when she wrote back rather than the simple heart I get.....and I got one of those nearly every day during the week.  I chuckled out loud when I commented on her being on air at 5:30 which is usually the half hour she is not anchoring and asked if this was the "new normal" since she did NOT say she was "in for" the usual gal that does that segment.  What made me chuckle was that she referenced that conversation from a couple weeks ago by saying that line had been deleted by the producer :)  When I commented that I enjoy most her posts about "every day Lauren" she replied she has an upcoming post that I'll like.  But the one I appreciated most came when I sent her a pic from the Pegasus - on Saturday, not a work day....but an at home with family day, and she had ball games to be at all day.....and she "replied" with a heart.  Big smile to be recognized by my gal-pal :)

Clearly, far and away, the best, exchange of the week came from my most favorite former, Kimmy who would be at the top of the list (besides my wife & family) if I were asked "what adults do you feel closest to and share your most important moments with?"  And so it was this week when I had an eye appointment and was told I MAY not need an injection.  Came home and Kim was at pickleball, and this was a big deal to share with someone....it was Kimmy that I thought of.  She didn't see it right away but when she did she was so supportive.  Early in the week we chatted about the impending big winter storm coming and I asked her to keep me posted on how they "survived" the cold and snow/ice.  I figured I'd reach out to her to see how they were at the first of the week.  But on Sunday afternoon as I was watching races my phone flashed and I immediately noted the "Kimmy" heading.  It WAS cool that she sent me videos of her kids and a photo of what it was like, and told me it was so very cold.  But what meant the most to me was that she reached out to me without my prompting - and HAD let me know.  I thought afterwards that maybe she did, maybe she didn't (and that would be my guess) reach out to anyone else like she did to me.  We ARE close friends that do follow one another.  I then said to her, that I enjoyed the images but where was she?  Another photo came and I still didn't see her, asked again.  Then about a half hour later I thought, did I just not see her?  Blew up the pic and looked closely, THERE she was - had not recognized her all bundled up and frozen.  Immediately messaged her and thanked her....and she replied back....and "laughed" at my comment about how cold I GET when I am in the pool in the morning.  Finally you'll note the final set of images of Kimmy below display the ChatGPT logo.  She inspired my creative writing of the story of my "Hallmark love story" with my wife and in the story she "plays the part" of MY Kim.  These two AI generated images of the fictional Kimmy in the story bear striking resemblance to the real Kimmy :)

Gulfstream 2025-26: Week 8

 January 15-18

The weekend started with an arctic blast as we woke up on Friday to the mid-40's, it was wonderful!  I sat on the porch until my fingers were so cold I couldn't type any more :)  It was an enjoyable week as my family had arrived early Wednesday afternoon and stayed until Monday evening.  The week in racing was the best of the winter so far, and the social media interactions among the best in a while as well.  Just overall, a great week.  

Thursday's card was typical of the way the "new Gulfstream" has played out.  A ten race card and not only did I find just three races worth wagering on, but in FOUR of them there wasn't even a single runner I could mention as one that was the least bit interesting.  After passing the first race I ran 2nd at 7/5 odds with Herbstreit - ironic as the real person, Kirk Herbstreit was calling the national championship game on Monday.  The second was a one-turn mile for an open claiming tag of $12.5K, a true "blue collar" kind of race.  The Prince's Spur was my pick despite the 7yo not having been seen since September 2024.  As I noted, betting these kind, at this level is probably NOT a long-term profitable move, but if you "know" which ones to bet and which ones to avoid they can be strong plays.  That trainer Rohan Crichton had paid $50K to claim him and had kept him in training for more than a year was telling to me.  And that top jockey Irad Ortiz took the mount, sealed the deal.  Stalked the pace while on the outside in the clear.  Seized control at the furlong marker and drew clear.

Passed the 4th, 5th, and 6th without mentioning a single runner before Senza Parole showed up in the line-up for the 7th, a conditional allowance going a one-turn mile.  I noted that the horse was a deserving short-priced favorite but that caution was advised because trainer Chad Brown has seemingly used the Gulfstream winter meet as a tune-up for Keeneland and his horses have NOT lived up to their short priced odds.  But I was willing to see how this winter would play out so I doubled the wager.  Tracked the leaders into the turn, took off and drew away at 4/5, which was a bigger price than I'd anticipated.

If I thought Thursday was a weak card, Friday set a new all-time low with EIGHT of the ten races "earning brief recaps that all said, "no one is worthy."  In the 4th, a non-winners of two sprint for $25K saw Rocketeer "good enough" for a minimum play.  Dropping a notch for leading trainer Saffie Joseph with Tyler Gaffalione on board.  Right to the front and never looked back.

Saturday, with the family in town meant I'd be playing the races from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" at home.  The highlight racing for the day came from New Orleans where it was "Road To The Derby Day" with the first set of Derby & Oaks preps on the Louisiana trail, along with four other supporting stakes races.  And in Southern California it was their "Sunshine Millions" day of sorts - at least the way it has evolved over recent years.  In addition to playing these two and Gulfstream's races, racing at Laurel in Maryland included a few stakes events so I handicapped that card as well.  My sheet showed races from a little after noon until nearly 7pm.  But with the way the quality of racing has evolved of late, I didn't have a live bet until nearly 2pm.  Seven of the first nine races were a "PASS" and then the first two wagering selections both scratched!  WOW.  Finally got into the action with the fifth at Laurel and I was completely outrun....not a good start.  The third at the Fair Grounds was a maiden special for three-year-olds going a mile and a sixteenth.  As I noted, at this time of the year you have to think that many of the connections have "Derby Dreams" and hope that their 3yo can flash the talent to take them on that path.  That Todd Pletcher shipped Jackson Hole from his Gulfstream base gave me this feeling.  And, the fact that the configuration here in the Crescent City had a full stretch at this distance had to have played into his decision.  Was 1/5 as the field approached the gate but thanks to the "value bettors" their "I'm not taking a short price" logic allowed him to float all the way up to 4/5 at post time.  Right to the front and never threatened!

Twenty minutes later they were loading into the gate on the turf at Gulfstream.  Miguel Clement was sending out Congressional for his debut.  Multiple bullet works and a big 23% win rate with debut runners led me here.  Five wide into the lane, gaining......UP IN TIME at a generous $9.80 payout.

The sixth at Laurel was loading into the gate as Congressional crossed the line a nose in front.  This Maryland stakes, The Geisha was my best of the day with Takethemoneyhoney looking to be an odds on winner.  She boasted a 7/5-2-0 record and her LAST FIVE Beyers beat 160 of the combined 161 lifetime figures earned by her rivals....the last four beat them all.  Right to the front, never took a deep breath....didn't care that I only made $2 :)

Made it five straight wins when Classic Time edged clear through the final furlong at the Fair Grounds and then took down the money in Laurel's next stakes as Quint's Brew missed the break but was good enough to come flying late to be just up in time in a tight photo finish.  Ohhhh, I'm having a very good day my friends.

Back to reality as I failed to even hit the board in four straight over the next hour.  But got back into winner's circle in the eighth at Gulfstream.  As I said, everyone I'm sure saw what I saw, that last out 103 massive Beyer when Time To Win scored.  More than a bounce I was concerned that it was a Chad Brown runner, and as I'd mentioned with Senza Parole on Thursday, was he prepping this winter for Keeneland, or were his runners live?  Well, Senza Parole ran to her DRF form, so I was onboard for a double investment.  Pounded to 3/5 odds she bobbled at the break - so characteristic of MY picks - rallied six wide and there were anxious moments, but up in the final strides.

After missing in the at 6/1 in the first stakes at the Fair Grounds it was time for the first of the Cal Cup/Sunshine Stakes out west.  I liked Big City Lights in the Cal Cup Sprint, but he scratched.  I'd had my questions about Man O Roses, especially facing my first choice, but without that one in the line-up he looked pretty formidable.  Because I'd had my doubts earlier I was good with a double investment.  Broke on top and had the look of a graded stakes winner as he toyed with this group of listed foes to draw off by a pole and change as a very short priced winner, my seventh on the day.

It was nearly an hour until the next ticket I cashed, but I also only had one bet in that time span.  The co-featured Sunshine Sprint featured last out Grade 3 winner Damon's Mound for the Bill Mott barn.  On paper, facing this group of listed rivals should be little more than a public workout, but if you were a "value" bettor looking for an alternative, you'd focus on the fact that he'd not been out since that win at the beginning of November.  But, I've seen Mott operate for years and there are few, if any trainers better for pointing for a race and having a horse ready to roll.  Because of the anticipated short price and the layoff I was only in it for the statistical win.....right to the front and took pressure all the way to the top of the lane.  To an untrained eye you might have thought he would have little left for the stretch drive.  But having seen "a few" races in my life (more than 35,000 since I began keeping records!) I could tell that the rider had PLENTY of horse under him.  A flick of the wrists at the top of the stretch ad that was that.

Three of the next four selections were in stakes and I scored in all three.  Medoro hit the front at the 16th pole and edged clear under confident handling in the Marie G. Krantz at the Fair Grounds.  Vodka Vodka pressed the longshot leader to the top of the lane, spurted clear and held the late runners safe to take the Unusual Heat Turf at Santa Anita.  And in a solid price play, Taken By The Wind held off the challengers determinedly to win the Silverbulletday and stamp herself an Oaks candidate with a $10.80 win in that 3yo filly route race.

Closed the day winning just one of the final four races when Cee Drew was JUST up in time to win the Cal Cup Oaks.  It capped a superb day going 12-for-23 with over $50 in profits.  And in the text messages I got this morning (see below), it was a super good day.

Like so many other weekends after a big Saturday I had to wonder if I'd hold my own on Sunday, give most the money back, or continue my winning ways.  It was the latter.  Tut's Revenge gutted out the win in the fourth and then I had tripled the bet on Expensive Queen in the 8th.  The off-the-turf event was a question mark but like is typical for me, that the trainer left him in when it was moved to the all weather made me comfortable to hold on to the bet.  He blew by in the stretch at a big $11.40 pay out and I cashed for over $85 on the bet.

Week's Totals:  33 / 17 – 2 – 1

-$310 / +$414.50

Social Media this week......
Former Mickonomics student Jen frequently posts photos of her young girls and it's so clear to me that they have their Mom's bright eyes and smile.  So when she posted a pic late in the week I commented to that fact.  Got the proverbial "heart" like :)

It's funny, and everyone can relate here, there are just some people in the world that when you have contact with them, you smile.  Kimmy is that person for me.  After sharing with her that she was an inspiration for my fictional story I'd not heard from her.  And I'd reached out a couple times.  That's not unusual, I mean she's a working girl, got two little ones, and a husband.  So when we were all sitting on the porch in the middle of a phone conversation with my youngest son Brad, and my phone lit up, the "Kimmy" at the top of the text caught my attention.  Always a big plus to have contact, but that SHE reached out to me....that was what led to the big smile.  As I read her text and then we went back and forth that feeling you get when you connect with a special friend grew within.  She explained she'd been "dark" because they were fighting the flu in her house, and then not only did she assure me that they wanted me to visit, but she also told me that she would make it a point to be able to connect with me the next time she had business in So Fla.  She's one special girl, and a great friend that I have leaned on many times when I need reassurance or someone to talk to outside of my wife.

Lauren Pastrana and I connected more than half a dozen times this week and twice she actually sent a message back :)