Gulfstream 2025: Week 5

 Christmas Week

It was a very good Christmas week all around.  Tuesday, late afternoon Brad, Lauren & Oliver arrived to spend nearly a week with us and we were very excited about having them here (a) for such a long time, but (b) more importantly to share Christmas morning and week with them.  Was just a wonderful time.  From a racing perspective, the dark day for the week was moved from the usual Wednesday to Thursday Christmas Day, and so Gulfstream ran a Christmas Eve card.  I had four selections on the day and felt pretty good about them.  Though, as I noted to Brad, the quality of racing in the last couple years here during the winter is far different.  It's not very typical to have a lot of confidence in many of the selections so as I said to Brad Friday morning, I wasn't all that surprised that despite the "confidence level" I had had before the racing day, that I finished 0-for-4 with a second and three thirds.  Friday was the next racing day of the week.  I had seven selections from the nine-race card and again, thought I had a better than fair chance to win.  I opened the day with a third at 2/1.  Then in R3 I debated about upping the bet.  My pick the favorite, Step Slow, was stepping up from a maiden $12.5K race to compete here in a $20K event.  I typically don't like that, but he was the only horse in the field who had run to par and that offset the class rise.  But when he was being pounded at 1/5 odds heading to the gate I thought, maybe I should up the bet.  But then decided that while the crowd might be confident, I was not in this kind of affair.  Smart move on my part as he was a non-threatening 2nd.  WOW.  Ran fourth with my next choice and I began to wonder if this week was going to be "one of those weeks" where I struggled to find the winner's circle.  Finally got on the board in R5, a claiming event going 6f.  Didn't have a world of confidence in Sheshimaintainence but she was going first off the claim for a barn that wins with nearly 30% of those.  Broke sharply to be part of the pace but then through the opening half mile gradually dropped back, back, back and back until being last heading into the turn.  WOW, I thought.  But then I saw the rider ask for run and the response was immediate.  She began rolling and picking off horses into the lane and by the time they hit the 16th pole she had all the momentum and blew by to score as the even money favorite.

Fell back into the "go figure" realm when Our Town was sent off as the 1-2 favorite in the next race but could only manage to be a distant third.  Wow squared.  Race 7 was a conditioned allowance event going a mile on the turf.  On the one hand, it did look to be a competitive affair, but as I noted in my analysis, it was hard NOT to note that One Stripe had run in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile and the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile in his last two starts.  Those were his only two tries in North America for trainer Graham Motion.  Wasn't sure how to evaluate his 6-for-9 record in his native South Africa, but that they had thought enough to try back-to-back Gr 1 races made me think he'd probably run well on the big class drop today for jockey John Velazquez.  Sent off at a generous 5/2 price Johnny V kept him in the clear into the turn while the betting favorite was boxed in with nowhere to go.  'Stripe burst to the front heading for home and by the time the favorite shook loose it was way too late.  WHOOOO HOOOO that $35 payoff helps.  Finished the Friday card with a 4th in the featured Rampart Stakes with the 6/5 post time favorite.

Saturday is typically the "big day" of the racing week but two things held me back from making it the usual all-day affair.  First, with the family here and especially with the 6pm departure for the hockey game I knew I wouldn't be completely focused nor spending the typical amount of time on racing.  And secondly, the big Opening Day card at Santa Anita had been postponed from Friday to Sunday.  With the multiple graded stakes on the card, and with Brad's family leaving around lunch time I thought this would be the "bigger" of the two days.  The day started like the rest of the week as my pick in the Gulfstream opener ran 2nd.  But for the first time this week I seemed to hit my stride with picking winners.  I was only playing Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds today.  In the opener in New Orleans I thought that just maybe today was the day that finally Bluegrass Town would get his first elusive win.  The switch to Jose Ortiz in the irons gave me a degree of confidence.  Tracked in fourth to the stretch then swung into the clear and ran by the leaders to score at even money.  I'd made him a "conditional" bet that I would see how the betting went, so I was happy with my decision.

Awesome Train

Higgins Boat

Montador

Private Thoughts

Synthetic

Knightsbridge

Majestical

Sunday:  Opening Day at Santa Anita

Authentic Wave

Equitas

Waymark

Nysos

Social Media this week......

Human interaction this week was plentiful as our youngest son Brad and his family arrived on Tuesday afternoon and stayed until mid-day Sunday after Christmas.  Loved having them here for the extended time and in particular enjoyed being able to chat with my son & grandson.  Christmas Day was one of the best we've had in this household as we shared the holiday gift giving and present unwrapping with the extended family.  The best photo of the day came when Kim and I modeled our Christmas Panthers Winter Classic hoodies while Oliver had his jersey on with the matching beanie.

Saturday was Panthers hockey night and we all sported newly acquired Winter Classic attire.  Multiple photo ops on the evening.  The only downside was the loss to our bitter rival in a game that was unfairly officiated....and that's not just from a Panthers' fan perspective.  Truly not a fair "fight" so to speak!

Heard from multiple social media pals.  Pammy was a WISE student of mine and while we don't have frequent contact, it's nice to know we are still in touch.  She's got such a cute family - good for her!

Lauren Pastrana & I exchanged several contacts this week.  One such was a reel she posted when the breeze caught her just right for one of those staged "fashion moments" LOL.  And later in the week we exchanged holiday greeting messages.

Karli Barnett and I don't have nearly the amount of contact we used to have, but after last week's FB live chat interaction, this week she was in her Instagram messages and saw my photo of the snow on the pool deck and reached out to me.  When I replied, she wrote back right away.

Teri Hornstein was interested in the snow-covered pool deck as well and inquired about how I was able to do that.  

On Christmas Eve Day I reached out to our Orlando realtor, and gal-pal Sophia to wish her and her family a Merry Christmas.  For the next hour or so we chatted about the holiday and in particular about her baking cookies.  When I asked how her daughter had done as a helper Sophia shared a photo of Juliette taking such care to make sure to get the sprinkles just right :)

My Disney-girl Amanda and I also exchanged Christmas greetings and photos.  Found it interesting that she brought up the use of Chat GPT AI tool and how they had used it on their family pic.

My "adopted daughter" Jillian and I also exchanged holiday greetings via FB messenger.

But my favorite social media story of the week involved my most favorite former student of all time, Kimmy.  Since moving to North Carolina and starting their family my exchanges with Kimmy have become more spotty.  But to her credit as a busy working woman, mother of two we still keep in contact.  But on this day when I reached out to wish her Merry Christmas she not only responded but we had a "conversation" over the next hour.  Two comments that really made me feel good came when she first remarked, "I love all the pics."  Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so......the last couple of trips as I have shared photos during the trip I rarely get a return comment, and since it's a text all I know is it was delivered.  I have hoped that Kimmy still enjoys my sharing and she's seen them, but I haven't known for sure.  This remark tells me - I believe - that she has been enjoying them (and will encourage me to continue sharing!) and that she is just unable to respond/reply for various reasons.  The second comment came when I said to Kimmy, ".....on my Christmas list is to see her some time in 2026."  And almost immediately came the reply, "That would be awesome!"  Truly made me feel good and I will reach out to her and try to get some kind of plan together, as difficult as that may be.

So I was wondering after that reply about getting together, maybe a use for the Chat GPT AI tool would be to create for me a "what it would look like" if Kimmy and I were to get together over drinks and dinner.  Last May as I was watching TV in the family room I'd sent her a collage of all the times we have met and the photo I keep of her on my book shelf and she replied how this makes her happy as well.  So the thought of what would a dinner be like was not something we haven't done, just it's been so long since it happened.  So I asked the AI to create a photo of us getting together for dinner.  It was interesting because getting it to create a photo of us varied in how it handled it.  The first time it created photo images that I'd swear was us.  The next time it gave me a message that it could create "likenesses" of us.  And the pics did not look like us enough to be believable.  So later I tried again and did get a good one of us apparently posing for a picture.  You may note in the photo of Karli Barnett I appear to be with her - that too was a Chat GPT creation :)

Gulfstream 2025: Week 4

 December 18 - 21

First week back from our big Christmas Markets adventure and it was back to a regular routine.  I decided to see if I could bring some winter snow to So Fla so I tried the FB messenger AI program.  After trying several different directives I finally was able to get a snow-covered pool-deck in our back yard.  How "cool" is that, literally.  Then I took a video of myself with the morning coffee in a Christmas/Mickey sweater and took three still poses from it.  Manipulated it the same way until I got another snowy scene.  Check the photo at the bottom of the journal and note not only how it created this winter scene, but the details.  In particular, note how there is snow on my shoe :)  For the races this week, I got my first winner in the second on Thursday, a maiden claiming turf route.  I had originally planned to pass the race but had noted that Amelia was the only runner who'd run to par, but that was on the synthetic.  Wasn't ready to pull the trigger in a cheap $17.5K maiden event until while watching FanDuel TV both analysts singled her in a multi-race sequence.  Jumped in and she won for fun.

Ran second and third in the other two bets before the finale where I had selected Cairo Comedy in this 2yo maiden claiming turf route.  She'd only tried turf once in her four-race career but it had produced the best figure she'd ever run.  Saved ground thru the far turn, swung three wide into the lane and powered past to score.  And at a healthy $6.60 payoff which was nice.

Friday I thought I had a real chance in four races but two scratched out.  The "Bet of the Week" came in the featured seventh, an allowance event which marked the return of 2024 Florida Derby winner Tappan Street.  Had not been seen since the Derby last March....facing older for the first time.....and certainly has bigger targets down the road.  But on paper he just looked so much the best.  Tracked the leaders into the turn while being encouraged all the way.  Worked hard to run down the leader in the final furlong but was clearly the class of the field.  To me it appeared that he wasn't fully geared up, but as I anticipated, on talent alone he was just too good for this field.  The biggest "ticket" I cashed for the week came later in the day Thursday as the distribution of the $2.5 Million sales of my filly Seismic Beauty was distributed.  I was hoping for maybe $50 or so, but instead it was over $150 per share and I had two shares - whooooo hoooooo!

Saturday I normally either would have played more tracks and/or actually gone to Gulfstream as it was the first big Saturday of the winter with multiple stakes races.  But there was a Panthers hockey game with an early 6pm faceoff and we were taking our two grandsons and their Mom to the game, so I played only the Fair Grounds & Gulfstream from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center."  Unfortunately through the first four plus hours of racing I cashed only one ticket from the ten races I played.  OUCH, that's not a good sign for the way the day would turn out.  Only Lynn's Milky Way was able to get to the wire - and just barely at that - in an entry level allowance sprint.  Made the rest of the bets and we headed to the game.

We enjoyed being at the game but after two periods our Panthers ran out of gas.  Understandably as Friday night they'd rallied from 0-3 with ten minutes left in the game to pull out a remarkable shoot-out win 4-3.  Once we returned home I pulled up the replays starting with the Grade 3 Harlan's Holiday, the local prep for next month's $3 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup.  I like Saffie Joseph's Skippylongstocking who I anticipated being overbet to a short priced favorite.  He was 4-for-5 at this distance and off a freshening since disappointing in the longer Gr 2 Charles Town Classic I expected a bounce back effort.  Surprisingly he did NOT go off as the favorite.  Saved ground between and behind horses to the top of the lane when Tyler Gaffalione split rivals and got to the front heading for the first finish line.  Dueled to the final 100 yards before just edging clear.  The generous $6.80 payoff led to a return of over $50!

In New Orleans they too had a multi-stakes program, the "Road To The Derby Kickoff" which featured two 2yo stakes as preps for their Oaks & Derby later this spring.  In the Tenacious Stakes my top choice scratched out but I had thought that Not This Boy was the horse to beat so I went with him.  Right to the front and was pressured all the way.  In the lane he dug in and gamely was first on the wire!

Made it three in a row in the Grade 3 Fort Lauderdale going 9f on the turf, the prep for the Gr 1 Pegasus Turf with Wolfie's Dynaghost.  Like the Tenacious, my top choice scratched out but I had thought that the one to fear was 'Wolfie who had a chance to steal it.  Set a wicked :22 and change, :45 and change pace - way too fast for the distance and I was certain he'd fade.  But instead he kicked away through the lane and set a new course record!

Ran second in another FG stakes before the 2yo filly Hit Parade dueled through the lane and was JUST up on the wire to win the Untappable Stakes.  Lost the final play, but I'd finished the day with a 4-for-6 rally and came close to getting back to even on the day.  Considering the way the day started, I was delighted with those results!

Sunday I began the racing day in R2, a Maiden Optional Claiming where Todd Pletcher's $400K Been Busy looked to have found a pretty soft field.  Pressed the leader into the lane, dueled to the 16th pole then edged clear late.

Sky's Not Falling was the DRF BEST Bet of the Day in R5.  I thought in this $35K "beaten" turf route he looked best, but far from being a "best" bet.  Tracked the leaders while fourth to the top of the stretch.  Swung out into the clear and ran them all down for my second win.

Closed the day and the week with Maerdama in a two-lifetime claiming sprint.  I got a little extra satisfaction when GP analyst Brian Nandau - who I don't think is much of a handicapper honestly - said he would be playing against the likely favorite.  OK, so he's had some winners over the years, but his opinion does little if anything to influence my choices.  In fact I prefer that he goes a different direction :)

Saturday Racing Highlights

Happy Holidays!

Social media this week............

Back home we're back to little human interaction except with my lovely wife, so I was appreciative of some social media contact this week.  This week was Chloe Nelson's birthday.  Loved the pic of her and her puppy, Millie :)

One of the highlights of the week came while I was at the hockey game on Friday.  I opened FB during the second intermission and there was Karli Barnett doing a FB Live.  So, even though I couldn't hear in the arena I messaged her a "Happy Holidays" message and figured I would check after the game to see if she saw it and replied.  I was so delighted when I saw that she did see it, and the look of happiness (captured in the still below) was really cool for me.  And then she not only remarked about the game but went on to talk about how I was a "world traveler" and must be back from my Christmas Markets trip.  She's a sweet girl and I appreciate her friendship.

Regular gal-pal Lauren Pastrana and I had several interactions this week - about her two well-deserved Emmy awards and about the retirement of her 10-year partner and long time So Fla news anchor Elliot Rodriguez.