Rebel Stakes Week

 February 19 - 23
"Comeback Week!"

If you'd asked me late Friday afternoon how the week's racing is going, I'd have had an entirely different answer and state of mind than what I have as I write this weekly wrap up!  But yet again, this week was another example of a lesson I learned several years ago when I began playing the races on a regular basis.  And that is to stick with it, I AM going to win in the long run!  The week started out with my pick in the second going off at 5/2, pressing the pace to the turn and fading badly to seventh.  In the fifth I left the gate at 4/1 and was always near the back - 6th.  In the seventh I was "sure" I had the winner as War Officer was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite in a maiden claiming turf route.  Traced the leaders well in hand while fourth to the far turn, moved up confidently - even Announcer Pete called out "here she comes" but then flattened out to finish 2nd, wow.  And closed the day in the eighth when pressing the pace for a half mile at 2/1 then backed up to dead last.  0-for-4 on the day.  Thursday wasn't much better with the only "positive" being that I only found two bets for the day.  In the 3rd I was again the prohibitive favorite at even money, moved boldly but couldn't get by the 9/1 winner.  Then in the finale, R9 I thought I was going to even up my bankroll when Vekoma's War left the gate at 5/1 and was in complete control, loose on the lead turning for home without ever being asked.  And then the top two ran by him.  0-for-2 on the day, now 0-for-6 for the week.  That's ok, I'll bounce back tomorrow I thought.  In the third I was the 8/5 second choice...dueled on the lead saving ground on the rail into the lane and gave way to be a weakening 4th.  Was 2/1 in the 6th race and immediately was at the back of the pack where I stayed until making mild improvement late to finish a well-beaten fourth.  Finally, in the seventh I was the even money favorite....dueled with the 5/2 second choice and never got by to finish 2nd......0-for-3 on the day and now a miserable 0-for-9 to start the week.

Saturday was originally supposed to be Rebel Stakes Day in Hot Springs at Oaklawn but a big winter storm moved through early in the week pushing all the races back a day.  With a Panthers game at 6pm I wasn't going out to Gulfstream and there just weren't many attractive cards to handicap.  Tampa had two turf sprint stakes so I played a few races there and a few from Gulfstream.  Because I'd handicapped both cards on Wednesday I was using the DRF early odds which are often way off.  Such was the case with my first bet which was listed at 12/1 for Tampa's second race, before finishing 3rd as the 8/5 choice.  R2 at Gulfstream was next.  It was an entry level allowance and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott was sending out Euro import Serene Saraph.  Listed at an outlandish 50/1 by the DRF I wrote I expected her to be at least 1/10th that based on the connections, her being a Euro shipper and most especially two flashy bullet works.  When I opened the live video feed with a little over ten minutes to post I had to do a double check as she was 10/1.  Do I have the right horse and number?  Yes.  Well it's early in the betting.  Dropped to 9/1 and I thought here we go.  But as they went into the gate she floated back up and left at a remarkable 12/1.  Maybe I'm that wrong.  But right away I could see jockey Junior Alvarado had a lot of horse as he was in third while wide into the far turn.  Boldly accelerated around the field and catapulted to the front a furlong out.  While it got close late I knew from the furlong pole home I was a winner.  The prices flashed up at double digits and suddenly I'm nearly even for the week as I collected over $65!  WOW.

Ran 2nd in a starter handicap at Tampa and my next bet wasn't until the 8th on the west coast as I tabbed Great Venezuelan to win Tampa's Lightning Stakes going five panels on the grass.  As I noted in my analysis, the first thing that caught my attention as I scanned the past performances was the lack of a single stakes winner.  That made my picking 'Venezuela even easier.  What I liked most was if you drew a line through anything but a sprint on turf or Tapeta, his LAST SIX STARTS in those races had all seen him a winner!  He was near the back into the far turn and I was thinking that I'd at least gotten a price for my pick, then he suddenly accelerated four wide through the turn picking off runners.  Fanned at least six wide turning for home he had all the momentum and surged by late to win at a nice 2/1 price enabling me to cash for another $30 plus!

The 9th at Gulfstream was next on my sheet, and it was a 3yo MSW event.  Skate Away was being stretched out by Todd Pletcher who just hasn't been as reliable for me this winter.  But I wasn't about to allow him to start beating me at this point.  He was a $400K son of BC Juvenile and Haskell winner Good Magic so I knew the distance wasn't an issue.  But what I really liked was he had run fourth to his stablemate River Thames who came right back to win a one-turn mile allowance event and just might be on the Florida Derby trail.  Right to the front but took pressure through the first mile of the 9f test.  Turning for home he opened up and was clear to the wire.  And FINALLY I had a Pletcher maiden at a price as he paid $10.40 and I collected over $50.  Oh I'm having a pretty good day my friends!

Kim and I left for the game and before the hockey started I watched the second of the stakes from Tampa and I was a good enough but non-threatening third.  During the period break I opened up the replays and watched Todd Pletcher's impressive maiden winner Tuscon track the leader, take command and hold sway to the wire for my fourth win from just seven bets on the day.  For the day I profited over $100 and I am now clearly a winning handicapper for the week!

Sunday,  Rebel Stakes Day dawned and I had a week-high fifteen selections on the sheet today.  That included eight from Oaklawn's stakes-laden card.  And considering it was a Sunday, the six races I'd picked to bet on was a high number.  Continued Saturday's winning ways right off the bat as Roar of the Beast was the favorite all the way to post time then floated up to a more-than-fair 2/1 price.  Tracked the 8/5 post time favorite into the lane and ran by before opening up to win by multiple lengths!

Went on a five race skid including two seconds and a third before it was time for the fifth from Hot Springs.  Bob Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel Stakes more than half a dozen times each, so when he ships from So Cal you have to pay attention.  But both is runners in the Rebel today looked no better than any of the other main contenders.  But here in this MSW dash, Baffert looked loaded.  You HAD to believe that he would not put a $1.1 Million colt on the plane to fly here for their debut unless he thought he had something.  Cornucopian had sparkling workouts and when FanDuel racing analyst Andie Bianconne said he looked like a beast, I upped my already "prime time" / Bet of the Day wager to BET of the WEEK status.  Broke on top and took pressure into the turn.  But when he turned for home and lengthened stride it was a big "WOW" performance.  And somehow the crowd had let his price float up to 3/5 so I cashed for over $50!

Ran 3rd at even money at Gulfstream with a runner that all the on-air handicappers said was just way too good for these and simply should just win.  Uh huh.  Came back in the seventh to bet Ultimate Ready in an entry level allowance going an abbreviated five furlongs on the turf.  Bill Mott was taking over the training for this one who had won over the Turfway synthetic on debut.  BUT....he'd been away for a year and now was moving to the turf.  Still, you had to believe that the barn had some level of confidence by NOT putting him in a claiming event.  Jockey Junior Alvarado was dead last into the far turn and suddenly found another gear.  Weaving through traffic without breaking stride he shifted out into the open at the furlong pole and surged in the final fifty yards to be up for the win....and at a nice $11.40 price!

Faded to fifth in an Oaklawn allowance before picking up my third win of the day at Gulfstream.  Rookie Card was my pick here in a race that probably - I thought - would come down to one of the two favorites.  Off a maiden win he'd been entered to run in Tampa's Pasco Stakes where he dueled on the front end to the far turn when he checked out of the running.  Now dropping into an allowance spot with an Early Speed/Class Drop angle made him the choice.  I could see why some would like the other favorite and when his Woodbine-based trainer was interviewed and said she had thought this colt was very talented from the beginning I had my doubts.  Still, while 'Rookie had questions to answer, the Woodbine shipper was..... going MSW to allowance; coming off a layoff since July; stretching from 5 1/2 furlongs to seven furlongs; AND going synthetic to first time dirt.  Right to the front, took pressure all the way into the stretch before opening up and running away with it.

Missed at 4/5 in Oaklawn's Oaks prep, the Gr 3 Honeybee when Brad Cox's Muhimma was flat through the lane to finish third.  Then in the Gulfstream finale Ciao Chuck went right to the front in a MSW turf route for older.  Opened a clear lead, then was caught in the lane, but surged late to be up in time!

I was third in both the two final races from Oaklawn, both graded events.  BUT in the latter, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Baffert's Madaket Road finished 2nd at 5/1 so with the Xpressbet promotion I'd opted in on I "cashed" my ticket for the full amount.  Check out the week's totals which started so awful :)

Social Media this week......

In next to every journal when I chronicle my social life, nearly 99.9% virtual, it's almost always my interactions with online pals, and to be fair - and who's complaining1 - which are nearly all females.  But I often get "likes" and/or reactions to my FB posts or to posts of Kim and I.  So let's start with Kim & I this week because Saturday was a B-I-G day for Kim, and us.  For the first time since November when she had her double knee replacement procedure she went to a Panthers hockey game.  I was so happy and excited to have my sweet girl with me!  And you can see, that photo got a LOT of reaction!

Now, me :) - early in the week we had another nice cold snap and so I posted my photo and got a lot of reactions from my 

My girl Chloe posted the coolest set of photos early in the week.  I'm pretty sure it was through her radio station, but regardless, Chloe was able to be in the pits at the Daytona 500 and took her dad, my great buddy Jeff with her.  So very cool.

Karli Barnett posted a pic and I reacted & commented which drew a reply from my former very close gal-pal.  I miss seeing her frequently on the CBS-Miami News and taking part in her then weekly Facebook live chats.

Current weekend news anchor Teri continues her recovery and I reach out to her every couple days to encourage her.....

Kim and I met Manuka on our British Isles trip and we've been FB pals since.  She posts pics of her travels and this week she replied to my comment on her latest adventure.

Kim and I are close friends with Shelly who at one time was Kim's asst. volleyball coach and she worked with us at Cypress Bay High.  It was five years ago that she was in So Fla and we spent the evening together.  That came up on my FB Memories and I shared it with Shelly.   I  told her it was a great day.  And she replied to the same.

It's interesting to me, and makes me smile that gal-pal Lauren Pastrana and I have almost daily interactions.  As I said to Keith a week ago, I'd love to know if she interacts with me because she thinks that I'm just an active fan/viewer, or if she does indeed consider me an online friend.  From some of her recent comments I'd say and hope the latter.  This week we interacted and exchanged messages every single day, all seven days.  It was highlighted by Lauren's participation in the Dolphins' Cancer Challenge fund raiser which I'd earlier contributed to her drive, but added more this week.

Risen Star Stakes Week

 February 12 - 15

It was a week highlighted by Valentine's Day and visiting Gulfstream on Saturday.  But other than that it was a week that was characterized by very few wins.  Wednesday I had ONE win on Wednesday at 4/5; on Thursday I had a single winner at 1/2 odds; on Friday, Valentine's Day I was shut out.  Saturday saw me win only once - officially - at Gulfstream; and I closed the week with a single win at 4/5.  Not a week that I'll recall with great pride in my handicapping skills.

Friday:  Valentine's Day
While I was shut out at the races I enjoyed feeling the "love" in the air as my sweetie, Kim and I exchanged cards and gifts.  I had purchased a cartoon version of us that was made from a photo on our trip to a winery last fall.  I also shared that with several of my online pals who agreed it was cool.  That arrived on Wednesday so i went ahead and gave it to her.  Then I had a dozen roses delivered to her on Valentine's Day.  When we were in Orlando last week out to dinner I had what I remarked was the best Moscato wine I'd had, so Kim tried to find it for me.  Didn't find the exact one but a similar one.  And then throughout the day I exchanged Valentine's messages from my favorite online gal-pals.

Saturday:  Risen Star Stakes Day

Keith and I set out for Gulfstream Saturday around 11:45 am knowing we'd miss the first race at GP because I didn't have a bet.  We got our seats on the finish line in the grandstand and I posted a pic noting the "Chamber of Commerce" weather - which got reactions from several of my online pals.  Started the day by finishing third at Gulfstream, then 2nd at the Fair Grounds and fourth at Gulfstream.  Though, in that race I had a Todd Pletcher runner who was 20/1 and made a threatening move into the lane so I got some excitement.  The first win of the day came in Baltimore where Laurel was hosting four stakes races.  A short field of four went two turns over the sloppy going and I preferred Brittany Russell's Sea Dancer.  Has spent his career on the turf until moving from the west coast to Ms Russell's shedrow in Baltimore.  She put him on the dirt and he won a stakes.  Today he was 9/5 as the four horses got in the gate, but by the time they hit the backside he was 1/5.  WOW.  Sat fourth behind the embattled trip into the turn, slipped up the rail and dueled with the 1/1 2nd choice to the furlong pole before drawing off.

I ran 6th twice and then in the fifth at Gulfstream I told Keith that in this Tapeta sprint I didn't have a lot of confidence in Heir to the Roar, who'd gone down as the favorite in back-to-back starts at this level and distance, but he WAS the one to beat.  Surged to the front.  Stretch duel - photo finish and then the slo-mo replay confirmed what I'd seen live, sitting on the finish line, I'd won....The camera showed #5 Heir to the Roar galloping out and then the announcement, "The photo shows the unofficial winner as #2 Bodacious Bren...."  WHAT?   CLEARLY, still as I write this two days later I'm incredulous.  And like every other "official photo" you'll note that the red and white of the rail is not in the official picture.  We just couldn't believe it.  Ahhhh, the track.....

Next up was the Barbara Fritchie from Laurel.  When I'd looked at the past performances the only question was how legitimate were the Beyers Irish Maxima had earned when racing at Parx.  Especially the last out 101 Beyer which would make him a daylight winner.  I liked that the Parx-based rider was here and so I made him the minimum bet.  With ten minutes to post time he was being hammered in the WIN pool and all the multi-race payoffs made him the shortest of short prices.  So I doubled the bet.  Right to the front, clear without any problems and when asked to finish the job he held everyone off by multiple lengths.

Ran 3rd and 2nd in the next two....at least I'm in the hunt, sigh..... Then in the seventh at Gulfstream, a non-winners of two-lifetime turf route I liked Victory Dash.  Jockey Joel Rosario gave him a great ride, sat just off the pace, surged to the front into the lane, was clear and then shortened stride late.....PHOTO finish!  AGAIN, I was "sure" I'd won but as I said to Keith, we'll see what the "official photo" shows.  It DID show I won.  You'll note in the inset how on this "official photo" the rail IS pictured, but note how it is extended beyond the finish line?  First NO finish line and now an elongated one?  This has been something I've seen and wondered about for years.

Next up was the fourth and final of the Laurel stakes (the second place finish before the Victory Dash win had been their third one).  Quint's Brew was my pick, and like nearly all my other wins today - and for the week for that matter - he left the gate as the short priced favorite.  Tracked the leaders into the turn, kicked by and ran off.

The "BIG" races of the day were at the Fair Grounds with multiple graded stakes and 50pt Derby/Oaks preps.  Right before the first of those, the BEST Bet of the Day was in a Gulfstream allowance where Bill Mott's Knightsbridge was returning to the races.  He'd won on debut with a mid-90's Beyer.  Drew off by double digits in a one-turn mile here against entry level foes with another big 90+ Beyer.  And has run a troubled third with yet another mid-90's Beyer in a Gr 3.  EVEN if today was a workout he figured to win under a hand ride.  Thru the first eight races we'd already had multiple double digit payoffs including two horses that paid over $50.  STILL, Knightsbridge looked as sure a thing as there could be.  Dueled early through quick fractions, opened up turning for home and then got run down by a 14/1 longshot under Paco Lopez.  That sealed a losing day for me.  But in the first FG stakes, Mansa Musa rallied to be up in time in the Colonel Powers, a turf sprint stakes.

After the disappointing 2nd with Knightsbridge locally I ran 2nd again, and again in the final two live races - split by a third at the Fair Grounds.  And just before we left I watched Nanda Dea win the Al Stall Memorial Stakes over the New Orleans grass.

Keith mentioned as we walked to the car that he'd won a couple dollars and I said I thought maybe I'd have a small loss if I did ok with the final four races from the Fair Grounds.  Had the 2/1 pick in the Gr 3 Mineshaft - ran seventh :(  Was 2/1 in the Gr 3 Fair Grounds - ran even worse, finishing 8th.  In the featured Gr 2 Risen Star Stakes I had the favorite at 4/5 but a 43/1 longshot wired the field as I again was off the board in 8th.  The ONLY good news in the sequence was Brad Cox's talented and unbeaten filly Good Cheer was an easy winner in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra - the Oaks prep.  AND I'd doubled my wager from $15 to $30.  The bad news was that the field was only 4-deep and she went off at a miniscule 1/9 price.

Risen Star Day Highlights

As I said, it was NOT the kind of week that inspires going back to the track as for the week I was a mediocre 10-for-44.  The winter has NOT been a highly successful one through the first two months anyway and I may be heading for an all-time low win percentage that I set back in 2011-12.  But if there's one thing I've found to be true, it's that by and large if I keep firing it nearly always balances out to be in the low-to-mid 30's for a win percentage.  Here's hoping for a better week, next week.

Social Media this week.....

I was in touch with several of my "peeps" this week.....on more than one occasion I reached out to poor Teri who's still recovering from her foot surgery, but for the first time since her operation, this time she told me she was getting better!

I sent out the "animated" version of Kim and I to a few people, of course first and foremost to my most fav-former, Kimmy who replied that it was cute :)

Several exchanges with my girl, Lauren, as is usual for a week.  I had told her I was writing to the program director about her 7pm solo news segment being cut and she helped me get the facts straight on her background.  Then, Monday night as I got into bed and turned on the 11pm news there was Lauren AND Eliot, both with the "professor" look wearing glasses.  So I sent a message to that effect and immediately - while she was on the air - got a reaction.  The next morning I was watching the recorded news and they told the story who was ARRESTED for hitting a tree - who knew that was such a law.  Then Eliot proceeded to say he hit a tree once and Lauren's reaction was priceless.  So I snapped four stills of her and sent them to her as a collage saying it was these kinds of personality moments that make her my favorite.  She wrote back very soon after saying the pics had "cracked her up" and could she use them.  So she then posted them saying she'd received them from a "loyal viewer" - that would be me my friends - and linked to the story.  Cool stuff - at least I think so!  Next, Lauren has started posting reels that she calls "Walk & Talk" - like the "Top Ten things you don't know about me" from last week.  But on this day she had her daughter along.  So I commented it was this kind of revealing looks at her as a person that made her a more effective and trusted journalist.  And she replied that she wanted people to know she's just a wife & mom trying her best. 

Valentine's Day Exchanges

I exchanged Valentine messages with my "Disney Girl" Amanda; my "adopted" daughter, Jillian; my favorite country DJ & Fla Derby girl Chloe; my favorite Viking girl Petra; from fellow Miami (Oh) and former student Jen; and finally.....I've thought several times about a photo I knew I had somewhere of my gal-pal Kimmy when she and her mom joined us at the Florida Derby for the first time.  I remembered her sitting beside me and looking intently as I explained something about the Racing Form.  It was a cool moment for me that she took an interest in what I am so passionate about.  Found it, finally and sent it to her on Valentine's Day as she replied back with V-Day wishes.  And finally, when I sent a Valentine's virtual card to Lauren, she wrote back to me.