November 22 - 23: Pre-Season Kick-Off
There are several reasons that the Winter Racing Season kicked off early this year. First, Gulfstream themselves moved the Opening Day back from the first weekend in December to Thanksgiving Day. OK, yes, I know that this weekend was not Thanksgiving :) But, next week on the official opening day, my wonderful wife will be in the first day of her recovery from having double knee replacements so I am nearly certain that i won't be on track. Next, last year I also kicked off the season with a "Pre-Season" racing weekend to coincide with Opening Day at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans and Friday WAS their opening day. And most importantly for my actual on track attendance, we had our first real cold front move through Thursday night. For the first time since late February we experienced lows in the 50's. It was crisp weather and the high for the day was in the low 70's making for a picture-postcard kind of day to be at the races. As a bonus, the local races were much like a Championship Meet weekday card with the featured event showcasing the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic winner. The action started on Tuesday when one of MY horses, Classic Cut scored in a Remington Park allowance event. Unfortunately for myself and my fellow owners of this horse, his financials are upside down, so all of the winnings go back into his reserve to try and make up the difference. STILL, MY HORSE was a winner :)
Friday I had handicapped races from Churchill, the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream. My first selection was in the second locally where Todd Pletcher was debuting 3yo Rumors Have It. Everyone was on board with the two-time leading jockey Irad Ortiz in town already. The gates sprung open and from his rail draw he was away last. Seriously? Cruise up without being rushed to contest the lead into the turn, then took over willingly and opened up through the stretch.....only to be nailed in the shadow of the wire. WOW - NOT the way I saw the winter starting. Went inside and watched opener from Churchill, a claiming event for 2yo's and Gardiner was the heavy 1-2 favorite. Clear into the lane and just as I was about to count my money, HE gets caught on the wire. WOW-squared......
Certainly this can't be a three-peat as in Gulfstream's third, Great Venezuela looked to be a "mortal lock" over the synthetic surface. She boasted a 7/5-1-1 record and was on a three race winning streak. And today she'd only have to face four foes. Away cleanly (thank goodness) and tracked the pace setters three wide into the stretch. For what ever reason the rider decided he'd try to split rivals, only to be cut off and have to check. REALLY? In a four-horse field I'm finding trouble? Recovered, took over and drew off by daylight. As I said in the video, "you won't get rich with these kind" as she'd left the gate as the prohibitive 1-9 favorite, but a win is a win and we're off and running at the meet!
After running fifth in the opener in New Orleans I had another "big bet" in Louisville where Top Gun Rocket looked MUCH the best on paper. The concern, and you'll rarely find me betting these kind, was that he was a TEN-TIME maiden in this MSW dash. AND he appeared to be the classic perennial bridesmaid kind of runner, having run 2nd in both his last two....in three of his last four....and in five of his last seven. WHY on earth are we betting him, much less going "all in" with a triple investment? Well, because "every horse eventually finds his field," he'd never been favored - so you COULD make the case he was never SUPPOSED to win - and by the Beyer figures (especially the most recent ones) he was a standout. Tracked the rivals into the turn, split runners heading for home looking like a winner but then was only gradually gaining....are we every going to get there? JUST in the nick of time. The crowd had been dubious so I cashed for a "generous" $5 and change, collecting nearly $40.
Over the next hour and a half I missed three times, including another odds-on 2nd at Gulfstream where Rachel's Song was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite, and passed on five other races before arriving at the 7th at Churchill. It was an especially weak non-winners of two lifetime without much to go on, but Pinfire looked to be the fastest horse. The barn had woeful stats off the layoff which probably should have sent up the red flag to avoid the race. But I noted that despite these figures, Pinfire had twice come off a layoff in his pp's and run sharply. That kind of effort wins here. Right to the front, immediately clear by daylight and was never threatened at a nice $7 and change mutual.
At this point in the day it was a little before 4pm and I wanted to avoid the rush hour traffic so I headed for home after making my last set of wagers. Ironically traffic was just awful. I rounded the Hollywood Circle on A-1-A and the GPS showed I'd be home at 4:44pm. By the time I reached the airport to get onto I-595 at the end of the journey on A-1-A, the GPS showed I'd be home at 5:17pm, a delay of over half an hour. My patience was truly tested my friends. And as much as I thought about this being the reason I do NOT come out in person more often, I had to admit I loved every minute of being AT the track today. Got home and pulled up the replays. Missed twice at the Fair Grounds, but sandwiched around this was the 8th from Gulfstream. Steal Sunshine was going to be the odds-on favorite and he was. But right out of the gate in this 2nd level allowance going a one-turn mile he was double digits behind the field. I thought, "I guess he's not such an obvious winner." But then he began to advance and when he hit the turn he was flying up the rail. Swung wide into the clear turning for home and blew by the field to win by open lengths. OK, so I WAS right originally :)
I scored with two my final three selections at Churchill when Friar Lawrence was a clear winner in R7, and got a nice payoff when Shiloh's Mistress dueled the length of the stretch on the turf in R8 and was J-U-S-T in front on the wire. The more than $7 mutual allowed me to have a ticket worth more than $35 for the next live visit.
Ironically, the initial reason for playing today was because it was Opening Day at the Fair Grounds, but I'd been shut out all day. Finally in their finale Blue Fire dueled from gate to wire and refused to let his rival run by him.
When I go out to Gulfstream I like to make a chart that compares my picks with the so-called "experts" who get PAID to guide the betting public. I had done this consistently on all the big racing days last winter and it seemed to me that every time I was at least as good if not better than those guys getting paid to do so. I understand that sometimes they are trying to offer a price alternative, but if you are getting paid - probably good money - to give the novice bettor a chance to win, you should be a winner overall. This is how it shook out last winter on the big days:
WOW - that's pretty remarkable right? Critics of yours truly would say, well you pick a lot of favorites and you can't make money doing that. Is that right, I'd reply. Because last winter over a span of more than 900 races I'd cashed tickets 37% clip and had a $2.06 ROI. Hmmmm. Who's the "EXPERT" I ask? With that preface, here's how today turned out :)
Saturday I opted NOT to play Gulfstream as the races were mediocre at best, so instead I played Churchill and the Fair Grounds again, along with the Laurel card which featured several stakes events. But a big winter storm blew through the mid-Atlantic and Laurel cancelled racing Friday-Saturday-Sunday. That was "ok" with me as I was playing online so I could watch some college football and Kim and I had a 6pm puck drop for our Florida Panthers to go to. Today started out, unfortunately much like Friday as my first pick - in Churchill's 2nd - ran second as the short-priced 3/5 favorite. Missed with my next two before the first stakes at the Fair Grounds went to the gate. The DL Ferguson Memorial featured Secret Faith who was unbeaten in four starts. The juvenile filly had scored in three straight stakes events by open lengths. She was certain to be odds on, and she was. Tracked the leaders into the lane, and despite a four-horse field had difficulty finding a seam to run through. But at the furlong pole she split rivals and quickly drew off convincingly.
Less than ten minutes later Too Sharp was heading to the gate in the Grade 3 Chilukki at Churchill Downs as my BET of the Day. The only concern I had about the talented filly was the one-turn mile distance. Her last three Beyers would beat 108 of the combined 110 lifetime figures of today's rivals and both those were earned by rivals who had very little chance to repeat them here. 'Sharp went RIGHT to the front and quickly sizzled the opening quarter in a sharp :22 and change. When she blistered the opening half mile in :44 and change I thought, "...that's way too fast for a mile race, especially for a filly who's trying to stretch out for the first time...." But having watched a couple of races in my life (LOL) I thought she was running well within herself and had a certain degree of confidence that maybe she was just too good for these. Turning for home she opened up when asked and was a runaway winner by double digit lengths. Apparently there were a large number of bettors who had their doubts because she nearly paid even money and I cashed for almost $40! On to Santa Anita and the Grade 1 LaBrea the day after Christmas for her!
One of my favorite La-bred runners for the last several years has been Free Like A Girl. And last spring she twice hit the board in open, Grade 1 company. Granted she may be a step slower today but still in this restricted J Valene Memorial which was the tenth at the Fair Grounds, she looked overwhelming like a winner. Fourth into the turn she blew by and opened up by daylight. The closers were coming through the final 200 yards, but too little, too late.
I closed out the Saturday racing day with a big win by Lagynos in Churchill's Grade 3 Commonwealth on the turf. She sat in the pocket behind the second flight of runners into the turn, split rivals, then dove down inside and sliced through the two leaders to burst into the clear and score going away. As an added bonus, she left the gate at more than 7/2 odds and I cashed for over $20 on my minimum bet.
The day at the track totals......let the winter racing season begin!
November 22 Highlights
One final side note.....The tree is up!
Social Media this week.....
As I've mentioned before, without "in person" friends to hang out with, having my social media pals means a lot to me. And without any social interaction, even a "like" that recognizes we've connected means a lot to me, but even more so when I can actually exchange messages :) Over the weekend, last weekend, gal-pal Karli Barnett had a FB Live chat on Friday evening and I jumped on for a few minutes. When I thanked her for her help with the Viking TV episode and her post video comments she replied by mentioning, again, that I'm her "resident world traveler" :)
I reached out to my buddy Chloe on Friday when I arrived at the track. The last time I'd been here was on Florida Derby Day, which was her FIRST day at the races. She "cleverly" identified where I was :)
Friday was also my amazing Mom's birthday and several of my FB pals wished her a happy birthday. One of which was my favorite girl from the Egypt cruise, Petra. I reached out to her and found her online. Much to my pleasure we "chatted" for nearly 45 minutes. I do so like that girl and wish we could see one another again. Someday......
Weekend news anchor and gal-pal Teri and I enjoyed our regular "weekend dates" on both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday - again while she was on the air - we had a conversation....first about how her Wawa coffee had leaked, and she sent a photo to show me. Then she asked what I thought about her hair style today. I was most pleased when I asked her if she'd ever worn it short and she said yes, that when I asked for a pic of how she looked with shorter hair she sent one within minutes.....again, in the midst of doing the morning news :)
As is almost always the case, I had some exchanges with Lauren Pastrana, my gal-pal news anchor. In particular she was "amazed" at the length of my travel day on the way to Europe for my Christmas Cruise with my niece Khloe.
