Gulfstream Week 13

 Rebel Stakes Week

The good news.....hit 40% winners for the week.  The bad news......the worst day was Saturday when I went just 6-for-23 and had multiple "big" bets that hurt the bottom line for the week.  But as I've said many times, I'd rather win more than win less and make money.  The profit is just a bonus to me.  At Tuesday's hockey game I was so happy that two of the FAU coaches I am friends with brought their wives over (and I'm friends with them as well).  We talked like we'd known each other for years - meant a lot to me!  Here's how the week played out.....

Wednesday started with a 4-way photo finish and as the 4/5 favorite I ran third.  In the third race, a MSW for older originally scheduled for 11 furlongs on the turf was moved to a mile and a quarter on the synthetic.  There were two in the field that I thought were the more likely to win, and they'd finished close together in November in a common race.  I'm a Sure Thing had run once since while the other had not, and that for me was the deciding factor.  Stalked the pace inside through the first ten furlongs then squeezed thru at the furlong pole and held off the wide running closer for the win.

I was at the eye doctor about to receive my eye injection when they went into the gate for the fifth at Gulfstream.  It was another MSW event, this one going 7f on the main track.  Todd Pletcher had two in the field and Unlimitedpotential had run a big one earlier, but that was more than a year ago.  Meanwhile Yorkshireman was a $500K son of Derby champion Nyquist making his debut.  Tracked his 4/5 stablemate to the top of the stretch then blew by at 5/2 to seal a winning day for me and my fourth and final pick later in the day was an ok third.

Thursday's card of nine races saw me with six runners I felt good enough about betting.  Was 2nd at 3/1 in the opener, then a distant 8th at 6/1 in the second.  In the fifth Oxymore was the short-priced 7/5 favorite but was a dismal eighth - not the kind of day I envisioned when I handicapped the card!  But I won two of the last three.  Khozall was the 6/5 favorite in R6 and I had mixed feelings.  In his last, his second career start, he'd been a sharp winner against open MOC $50K rivals.  Today he'd face state-bred entry level allowance runners.  Right to the front and was very impressive drawing away through the stretch.  After an off-the-board finish in the 8th, I scored in the finale when Whisper Not dueled with his stable mate in a starter optional claiming turf route, then edged clear late with my TRIPLE investment on board.

Friday saw me handicapping "on the fly" and it produced a 2-for-3 result.  In the opener, on the synthetic going a mile and a sixteenth for 3yo maiden claimers my top choice scratched.  Heathcliff was being hammered at the windows.  I looked at the past performances and his running lines didn't make him a standout but he did have a strong trainer-jockey team with Edgard Zayas riding for Saffie Joseph.  It wasn't like Heathcliff was the 9/5 favorite, no he'd been 1/9 and 1/5 throughout the wagering.  I opted in with a double investment.  From the far turn home the colt was very "unfocused" looking all around and difficult to stay to the task of running in a straight line for the wire.  It was very close, not the way you'd think a 1/5 would win....but win he did.  And they pay the same regardless of the winning margin :)

In R2 I planned to be Chad Brown's firster Loookingforbargains.  But from the opening of the wagering he was 8/1 or higher.  Not a fan of ice-cold runners on the board.  He DID outrun his odds when second, but because of the lack of action I opted NOT to bet.  Wise choice!  In R4 I had a striple investment, only to see the him run a good 2nd at 5/2 as the second choice.  Then in R5 Etnico was the clear choice.  I had planned to bet Etnico but only the minimum.  When he too was taking a lot of money I upped the bet to a double investment.  Right to the front and under a strong hold until allowed to cut loose for a 16th of a mile at the top of the stretch.  EASY winner.  Passed all the remaining races.

Saturday I handicapped Oaklawn and Gulfstream, then added Tampa and Laurel - both had a pair of stakes races on their card.  Typical of the day was the 3rd at Gulfstream where Cruizin' Man was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite and a single on all the "experts" Pick-3, Pick-4, and Pick-5 tickets.  Took pressure from the gate to the top of the stretch and when asked to go on with it as the narrow leader into the lane he had nothing.  A non-threatening 2nd.  Came back in Tampa's third where Paper Mansion looked to be a short-priced favorite.  The good news was he was a perfect 3-for-3 at Tampa and projected to be the lone speed, again.  The bad news was he'd never gone today's 9f distance.  Quickly cleared the field and was never threatened.

Missed on two more before watching Motown Dynamic run away with Oaklawn's 3rd as much the best with my second triple-investment winner.  Ran 4th at 1/2 at Gulfstream then scored at Tampa in a maiden claimer.  Missed again at Gulfstream - one of the story lines as I didn't cash a single ticket locally - and then won the first of the Laurel stakes when Miss Harriett went wire-to-wire in the Wide Country Stakes.  I was sitting at an "OK" 4-for-12 through the first three hours of racing. 

In the first of the two Tampa turf sprint stakes my horse was making what I thought was a winning move splitting horses into the lane when he clipped heels and the rider came tumbling off.  Sigh.....Third at Oaklawn at even money and a nowheretobefound 6th at 2/1 at Gulfstream.  My pick in the second of the two Laurel stakes scratched but my second choice, Speedyness was being heavily backed.  OK, he was my "back-up" so I went with it.  Much like Miss Harriett in the first stakes event, Speedyness went right to the front and never looked back!

Missed with five in a row before we all left for the hockey game.  Once we came, floating sky high from another dramatic overtime win, I checked the last two races at Oaklawn.  Won the national feature race, the Grade 2 Rebel with 50 points to the winner towards a berth in the Kentucky Derby when Timberlake drove clear through the lane.  But as the 3/5 favorite in the finale I gave up the ghost into the lane and was in the back third of the field.  Not my best day of handicapping for the week.

Sunday saw me with only four picks on the local card and I won the first two.  Girl Bye looked to be the most likely winner on the card but I just couldn't go any deeper than a double investment in a nw3L claiming event.  She walked with it in hand.  And then I came right back to win R4 when Pack Plays was the popular choice and drew off easily.

Because I only had four bets I opted to do the same thing as last Sunday and play "Handicapping The Handicappers" on my TwinSpires platform.  I had eight races to add to the selection sheet as the day began.  Rattled off four wins in a row, then had a scratch and the Gulfstream races were over.  So I opted not to press my luck since I'd done very well last Sunday and was a perfect 4-for-4 today.  As I turned out I WOULD have won 3-of-4 but it didn't matter because the wins for today put me at 40% for the week.

Next week is Fountain of Youth week, the final big prep for the Florida Derby.  And there are multiple stakes races in New York and out west in Santa Anita.  With Kim out of town to visit the grandson I will probably be at the track late Saturday betting all the big events!

Social Media this week......

I did have two "conversations" (multiple text message exchanges" with both my girl Petra who's on board the Viking Osiris in Egypt and with one of my all time favorite formers, Jennifer.  But of the "usual suspects" it was a light week.  Lauren Pastrana and I had three exchanges, the one most humorous when the sports anchor dissed the Florida Gators and I told her it just wasn't right :) - to which she replied.  And the "best conversation" came when, on Tuesday before we left for the hockey game the CBS evening news did a story on both the baseball and soccer teams but NOT on our Panthers who were playing for first place.  I sent Lauren a pic of us on the jumbotron and told this to her.  She replied they needed to do more stories on the 'Cats and sure enough on the 11pm news they did a piece on the Panthers overtime win.  You know she HAD to have had something to do with that.

Teri Hornstein and I exchanged messages after she did a piece on her favorite local eatery and it was a deli.  I gave her high marks for NOT editing out the messy bite out of the deli sandwich and she replied.

Gulfstream Week 12

 February 14 - 18:  Risen Star Stakes Weekend

Well, as always I enjoyed the week's racing, but certainly it was a far less productive week than I am used to. On Wednesday I had five bets originally but one scratched - which would make for an "interesting" story later in the week!  After missing at 4/5 in the opener I got on the board in a MOC for 3yo going five panels on the synthetic.  Trumpets had blistered the opening quarter and half mile on his debut over the all-weather before failing to last by less than a length.  If the Tapeta continued to play to speed, as it has for the last couple weeks AND she ran back to those fractions she would be a daylight winner.  Right to the front and ran away just as I anticipated.  

Thursday I had five selections from the nine races on my sheet to bet.  But two of them scratched before the races began making for a very short racing day.  In the third I thought East Side Cool was the lone speed but the rider took back to stalk the pace and watched the winner go wire to wire as I was a non-threatening fourth.  Was second at 5/2 in the fourth.  Scratch in the fifth before the sixth, a starter optional claiming event going six furlongs on the main track.  I'd planned to bet $15 WIN on For Some reason but after listening to everyone talk about how very much better For Some Reason would be in here I re-evaluated and made him the "Gulfstream BEST Bet of the Week."  He dueled with a rival into the far turn then was let loose and ran off as TONS the best!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Friday brought "good news" and "bad news" for the results.  On the upside I'd planned to pass the first two races, but prior to R2 the FanDuel analysts were all over Definite Diva in a MSW turf sprint.  They talked about the terrible trouble she'd had, how she could have had the lead but was wrangled back, and that in her last she took on the boys - today back with the girls.  AND finally that the hot-riding Paco Lopez was a big winner for this barn in turf sprints.  All of that led me to jump in on a double investment wager.  Dueled along the inside to the top of the lane then was long gone.  Nothing after that - second at even money, 4th at 5/1, then a dismal 7th at 3/5 (WOW).  In Race 8 I had Hidden Presence in a MSW turf for 3yo.  Made the front at the furlong pole but was nailed on the wire.  That was bad enough but the next day as I was updating my stats it flashed in my mind that the winner had been a horse named Lady Madonna.  Was that right?  I looked back - remember I noted that on Wednesday I had a scratch that would play into this week's stories?  On Wednesday I had picked Lady Madonna who was a 10/1 starter for top trainer Todd Pletcher.  Then later in the week when I handicapped the Friday card I noticed she was entered for the 8th in here and I wrote, ".....may have to reconsider Lady Madonna if she scratches out on Wed to run here....." but I didn't even read my own analysis or look at the field, just made my bet.  Lady Madonna paid $15 and change - should have had that one.  Sigh.....

Saturday

I was playing multiple tracks today but the bets for Laurel I made prior to leaving for the track because they were offering a "bet back" promotion if you're win bet ran 2nd or 3rd.  The first winner of the day did indeed come from Laurel when 9yo Iywaan tracked the leaders into the lane and then drew off at a generous 9/2 price.

I got my first and what turned out to be my ONLY win at Gulfstream when Nova Sol edged clear in the fifth, a $50K "beaten" claiming event on the turf.  I actually had THREE winners on the card, but in my infinite wisdom I opted to make two of those races "PASS" races.  Still at the end of the day I felt better about MY handicapping when noting that long-time Gulfstream analyst Ron Nicoletti and current analyst Brian Nadeau only had two winners.  And Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form - who, like the other two guys GETS PAID to pick winners, went 0-for-12.  It was also interesting when I turned on the FanDuel broadcast on Sunday that analyst/host Larry Colmus remarked he was hoping for a better day on Sunday as HE had gone 0-for-12 on Saturday.  So I guess 3-for-12 wasn't so bad, eh?

I picked up my first stakes winner on Saturday in Aqueduct's Ruthless Stakes for 3yo fillies.  I was surprised that the last-out maiden Ghalia's Princess scratched out of Oaklawn's Rainbow Stakes to run where - I thought she had an "ok" chance to win there, but little chance here.  Yet the crowd made her the slight 2/1 favorite.  My pick was Halina's Forte who if she ran back to either of her first two Beyer figures would win for fun.  The question was the inexplicable decline last time out.  I counted on a rebound and she blew by 'Princess in mid-stretch to draw off to a $6.20 win, letting me cash for over $30.

The highlight of the day came in the fourth of the Laurel stakes, the Grade 3 General George.  I thought that Brittany Russell's Post Time was tons the pick.  A career 6-for-7 record and 3-for-4 at this seven furlong distance were just part of the thinking.  I thought he'd be a short price, but not odds-on.  But from the first flash of the odds he was 1/9.  My original bet had been $10 online and another $15 live.  I watched the board for about ten minutes then went back to "my girl Kimberly, the teller twin" and asked her to cancel the bet.  I then said, "I'd like $40 to win."  She looked up at me with big eyes and said, "4 - 0?"  And I said yes.  I was mildly concerned when he was behind a wall of horses turning for home, but found a seam, got clear at the furlong pole and rolled home as easily best.  I smiled broadly when I went back to Kimberly to cash my ticket and said, "I finally had a winner...." and gave her the ticket.  She gave me a big smile and said, "....and this is the one you changed!"  I happily collected my money :)  I won one more race while we were there, a maiden race at the Fair Grounds.  And then Keith and I headed home.

Shortly before the final live race at Gulfstream it was time for the Al Stall Memorial on the grass at the Fair Grounds.  They had had a ton of rain and all but the two late stakes were washed off the turf.  Spirit and Glory was behind at least five rivals spinning out of the turn, but jockey Flavian Prat hugged the rail and when an opening materialized he shot through to win.  I had a triple investment which led to a payoff of a cool $60!  I had four late stakes bets but missed on all four (two 2nd a 3rd and a 4th) to close out the long day.  Back at it tomorrow!

Sunday I had four bets at Gulfstream.  But the weather called for not only rain, but big time storms.  And shortly after the racing started it was POURING there.  But the races went on.  And for once I was very happy that they had the Tapeta track because I thought it made for "fair-er" racing than on the sloppy dirt.  In the second Classic Mo Town defied the recent trend that you had to be on the lead on the all-weather and rallied from the back to score.

Picked up my second winner in a 3yo entry allowance event going a mile and a sixteenth with a short stretch to the first finish line.  I very rarely like to bet last-out maiden winners but Donegal Forever had been ultra-impressive in his debut for Todd Pletcher.  He'd been off several months and those kind of "talented 2yo / off a layoff / first start as a 3yo" kind of horses win often for him.  Forged to the front turning for home......stretch duel.....JUST in front for the win!

I decided to "Handicap the Handicappers" to give myself some "action" on the day and was rewarded with another FIVE winners to make my total for the day seven for thirteen!  A good way to end the week :)

This Week's Racing Highlights

Social Media this week.......

Lauren Pastrana and I had oh-so-many interactions this week, by far the most I've "talked" to someone other than my wife in a long, long time....and all online.  It started on Monday when I messaged her that we'd both picked the underdog Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl and she messaged me back.  She posted a rhetorical question wondering how many people would be interested in seeing her, and the others in the newsroom, wild reactions to the Chiefs winning in overtime.  Lauren had posted a similar video last year when the Panthers had won in overtime.  I voted YES to seeing it, and when she did post it I messaged her that it was so much like the hockey win reaction.  And that evening (Monday) the weather forecast called for chilly temps on Valentine's morning so I reached out to her, knowing how much she enjoys coffee in a hoddie on the porch on a chilly morning.

Lauren and I had a "real conversation" on Wednesday.  I reached out to her via Instagram messenger and remarked about how interesting her piece on "Only Fans" had been and asked what had been her reaction to meeting them in person.  She wrote back to me, in detail almost immediately.  And then I reacted to her reply, and she answered right back.  Then I decided to ask if she'd be interested in helping me prepare for my next Viking TV episode.  And I have to say it was one of the highlights of the week when she said maybe she could get me to the studio.  I would so very much enjoy meeting her in person.....and getting some pointers for the next TV episode.  Finally, along the lines of that piece, Lauren posted the link on Facebook and asked for reactions.  I did, and later I saw one guy, "Robert" had been pretty negative about it, so I reached out to her in another Instagram private message to tell her I thought he was way off base and that I certainly supported her work.  And again, she wrote back to me.  :)  Finally a couple of interactions from newscasts, one of which came when the evening news did a feature on the Miami Boat Show and I wrote that I'd like to have one of those.....note I sent that message at 6:31pm while she was on the air and she answered me at the top of the hour, while she was on the air.  :)

On Valentine's Day I saw a FB post from Miami (Oh), my alma mater about Miami Valentines and so I sent one to former student and fellow Miami Redskins alum, Jen.  She replied back with similar wishes.

Used to interact with Karli Barnett more than any other social media gal-pal, but that's tailed off.  But this week she posted a pic of her kitty watching the news.  I commented and she wrote back to me.

On "Fat Tuesday" - Mardi Gras Day - KC Sherman, who typically does the weekend weather was on the regular morning show.  I saw her talking about her hometown of New Orleans and they brought in her parents via video.  I commented to her and she reacted.

Weekend anchor and gal-pal Teri Hornstein liked my two posts letting her know I was enjoying her broadcast - especially on Saturday after she interviewed a chef about a variety of Mac & Cheese dishes!

Finally, it was cool that when Jeff brought the two boys over on Tuesday night there wasn't any Florida Panther hockey on, so I turned on ESPN to see who was playing and settled in to watch the Colorado Avalanche play the Washington Capitols - who we had JUST beaten them both at home.  As I started watching and they went to intermission break I remembered and saw that the studio host for Colarado is former Panther girl Katie Gaus.  She's a cutie and I really thought she did great work.  I reached out to her and she replied back to me within minutes.