Pre-Season Part 2: Thanksgiving Weekend

 November 23 - 24

I was ready to complete the "Winter Racing Pre-Season" by playing the holiday cards on Thanksgiving at both the Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs, and then the races at Louisville on Friday.  Thursday first post in Louisville was at 11:30 am (1 pm at the Fair Grounds).  I was "pleased" with myself in not forcing the issue as I went through the cards.  In SEVEN of the first eight races under the Twin Spires I couldn't find anyone that I felt enough of an edge to bet and in the lone race I had a bet, that one scratched!  And at the Fair Grounds I passed the first three before finally finding a runner worth a wager in their fourth.  I ran second as the odds-on favorite coasted wire-to-wire.  In the eighth at Churchill it was a conditioned allowance that could easily have passed as a Grade 3 event with the talent entering the gate for this one-turn mile.  Brad Cox's lightly raced Best Actor was a strong choice for me.  He'd debuted with two straight wins, including an entry level event at this one-turn mile HERE.  He'd been a just miss 2nd in the Gr 3 Indiana Derby and won the Gr 3 Smarty Jones at Parx.  Last seen in a daylight score in September in New York he had strong works for his return under Flavian Prat.  Broke sharply and went right to the front.  Took pressure from two rivals through the turn, but into the lane he kicked clear to a daylight advantage and was never threatened to the wire.  I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30 on my first winning bet of the weekend.

Less than fifteen minutes later they were walking into the gate for the fifth at the Fair Grounds.  This was a Maiden Special for 2yo going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  Keith Desormeaux's Next Level was dropping out of back-to-back try against Grade 1 company in So Cal for this maiden event.  He went right to the front which often is NOT the running style that wins here so I was a bit anxious.  Sure enough, turning for home he was collared and passed.  But he dug in, re-rallied and edged clear late to give me my second score with my second added money wager.

I was off the board at 6/5 in the very next race at the Fair Grounds, then a disappointing fourth in the Grade 3 Cardinal at Churchill Downs on the turf.  Off the board again in New Orleans at 9/5 before it was time for the Bet of the Day in the Grade 3 Falls City under the Twin Spires in Louisville.  Both the public analysts at Churchill on the pre-race show remarked that Xigera could be a prohibitive 1/9 favorite here and would in all likelihood turn the late Pick 6 into a Pick 5.  So it didn't take a genius to mark this one as the top pick.....but perhaps to lay out the biggest wager of the weekend on such short odds was the "gamble" of confidence.  After back-to-back turf wins she'd been moved to the main track and had won the Seneca Stakes here.  Then she was the odds-on favorite when running away with the Grade 2 Mother Goose.  Hard to imagine, unless you were a "value player" or thought the chances of something unforeseen happening were good, she wouldn't win.  She tracked the leaders three wide into the far turn.  Moved up willing to challenge turning for home and quickly opened up.  Drew off by more than half a dozen while finishing under wraps.  Ultra-impressive and the $2.30 payoff was like giving money away.  Won't get rich with these kind, but it's a "feel good" win knowing that not only did I pick the winner but my high confidence level was spot on.

The eighth at the Fair Grounds saw my pick run off the board at short odds for the third time - what's up with that?  But then it was time for the Thanksgiving Day Classic, the New Orleans feature.  A six furlong sprint that I wouldn't argue against your backing any of the others, I still felt pretty confident about Miles Ahead.  True....he was winless in five starts this season but he'd hit the board in all five and had the fastest figures on the page.  Four of the losses came to two horses who would have been odds-on today.  The two races I focused on was his just-miss in the Grade 3 Whitmore at Oaklawn and a sharp third to multiple graded stakes winner Gunite.  Fourth early on into the turn he began moving up through the far turn.  Caught the short-priced second choice in the betting early in the stretch and drew off through the final sixteenth of a mile.  

I was quite pleased to finish the holiday racing with a stellar 4-for-8 record and a solid, flat-bet profit!

Friday - The Friday after Thanksgiving is traditionally one of the biggest races of the fall Churchill Meet, the now Grade 2 Clark (formerly the Grade 1 Clark).  So I handicapped the Friday card as a "final warm-up / preseason" before starting the every-live-racing-day handicapping of the winter racing season at Gulfstream.  Much like the Thursday holiday card it was a while before finding a bet worth making as I passed the first three races.  The fourth was a maiden claiming event for 2yo and I took a shot with a fair priced runner dropping first time for a tag.  Sent off at 9/5 he faded to fifth.  The next race was my BEST Bet of the Day and I was pleased with myself for making this horse the "BEST" of the day.  Why you ask.  First of all it was a maiden race and when I'm going "all in" it's almost always with a runner who's established his form and ability level.  Second, in his debut he'd been a just-miss second while more than four clear of the winner.  Today he'd stretch to the rarely run 7 1/2 furlong distance.  Churchill regularly cards races at both 7f and one-turn mile distances, so you HAVE to figure this trip is specifically written for someone in mind.  I thought the son of Curlin would prove much the best on the stretch out.  Pressed the pace into the lane, assumed command and gradually drew off to a daylight score.  I thought the 3/5 post time odds were generous for such an obvious choice and happily cashed for over $30 on my "prime time" investment.

Right back in the sixth with Todd Pletcher's Grand Aspen.  Interesting form on display for this colt.....his first two starts for Brad Cox had seen him drubbed by a combined nearly fifty lengths.  Moved to the Pletcher shedrow and he quickly was 2nd in a turf route with a Beyer improvement of double digits.  Came right back to win, then was 2nd beaten a neck in a similar nw1x allowance to this over the undulating Kentucky Downs course.  Pletcher then moved the colt to the main track.  Hmmmm, interesting.  Finished a just missed third with a career best 88 Beyer.  Moving back to the grass today was the plan but when it was moved to the main track it was even better (I thought).  Pressed throughout the first six panels of this nine furlong event; collared the leader at the top of the lane and drew off to give me my second consecutive win.

I enjoyed the third consecutive win immensely as I thought Wind of Change was a pretty obvious choice, but BOTH the on-air handicappers were firmly against this guy.  Much like Grand Aspen in the previous race he pressed the leader into the lane and drew off with authority as much, MUCH the best.  Oh I love being right especially when the "experts" are emphatically against :)

I finished the day with two thirds, a 4th and a oh-so-close photo-finish 2nd in the Clark.  But for the day I finished 3-for-8 and with a clear profit.  Totals for the holiday weekend "pre-season" racing.....

Very excited that the Championship Meet at Gulfstream begins next Friday.  Just a smidge disappointed that I'll miss a trip to Orlando - especially to see our youngest son compete in ice hockey - but it's that time of the year when I GO TO the track.....haven't been since April 1st on Florida Derby Day!

Social Media this week.......

Lauren Pastrana and I didn't exchange any messaging, but I did reach out to her and got "recognized" which is "good enough" for me :)

I was much "happier" when my new gal-pal from the Viking Osiris, Petra and I were exchanging messages almost every day.  But I get it......I'd sent several pics and messages to her this week and she'd not had time to even respond with a "heart" to any but then I got a message from her and she and I exchanged several messages.  Such a sweet girl - always happy to stay in touch!

A few of my online pals (all girls, of course) exchanged Thanksgiving greetings this week.  Always nice to be "noticed" by my friends even if I don't see them "live."

Championship Season 2023-24: Pre Season Racing

 November 17 - 18:  Opening Weekend at The Fair Grounds

Photo From 2012 Visit To The Fair Grounds

Originally I thought I'd take the three weeks between the Breeders' Cup and Opening Day at Gulfstream (December 1) off to "recharge" for the daily handicapping.  But after taking off one week I decided to play JUST the Fair Grounds on their Opening Weekend cards Friday November 17 & Saturday November 18.  They carded multiple $75K state-bred stakes on both days and it was good to be back to racing, even in a limited way.  Didn't hurt at all that it was two winning days!  The opener on Friday was a cheap $5K "beaten" event going six furlongs.  Most races under "beaten" conditions read something like this, "......for 3yo OR non-winners of two races...." so that the 3yo get an advantage b being able to be a multiple winner while facing older.  But today's race had conditions which read, "....which have never won FOUR races OR have not won two races since May 17...."  A much different set of circumstances.  One of the qualifiers was Herd Immunity who showed wins on his page against $6.25K, $12.5K, and just two back was 2nd beaten a length against that same $12.5K level.  He also had a work over the track.  Sat mid pack to the turn, moved three wide to challenge and edged clear late over the second choice.  One bet....one WIN to start the winter racing season!  WHOOOO HOOOO.

My "Best" of the day came in the first stakes race, the D. Hebert Memorial.  Free Like A Girl had won many times for me and she was shooting to become a millionaire if she scored today.  My concern was two fold - first, her last three had all resulted in disappointment at short odds.  And second, today she was turning back to a sprint.  Add in that she was cross-entered in a route stakes event later on the card.  I thought she stood an excellent chance to bounce back to form here and I liked that all three public handicappers in the Racing Form made her their best.  The on-track analysts were both against her and didn't even put her in the top three.  I love to win races like this where I'm against what advice is being given to the crowd!  She was well back in the pack and between horses which I don't like to see as they ran down the backstretch.  But the rider, on board for the first time today, smartly asked her for some run and she responded immediately to get into the clear and move into third into the turn.  Caught the leader turning for home and opened up.  Got a little short late but I never doubted she'd hold on for the win.  

Two-for-two to start the winter!  I was the even money choice in my next bet and chased the loose-on-the-lead front runner all the way around.  Was making up ground late, but couldn't catch him...2nd.  In the final event, a two-year-old stakes I was posted wide but went off as the 9/5 favorite.  Didn't get going until way too late, fourth.  50% for Day 1 - I'll take it (with a profit!).

On Saturday I had six bets from the ten races with two that I thought MAYBE I'd bet depending on the way wagering developed.  Ran 4th in the opener and passed both the second and third.  In the fourth it was a starter-optional claiming event on the turf.  Skykat had earned Beyers of 73 in four of her last five AND showed eight wins on the grass.  I thought she looked clearly best.  Raced near the back up the back stretch, reached a contending spot into the lane.  Split rivals at the furlong marker into the clear, accelerated and ran down the leader in the shadow of the wire for the win.  I thought the 3/2 price was more than fair.

The fifth was an "interesting" race for me.  It was a 2yo stakes, the JR Peluso Memorial and I liked El DInero who had hit the board in all four starts (4/1-1-2) and after running close in his debut had broken his maiden in a state-bred stakes.  I also liked the rider upgrade today to journeyman Jimmy Graham.  What made it interesting to me was that he broke slowly from the outside and trailed the field into the turn.  I was focusing on the #10 horse who began rallying wide, but looked to be too far back when announcer John G. Dooley called out in deep stretch, "Here comes El Dinero up the rail!" And I thought "that's not my horse" but in fact it was and he drew off late to score - last to first as a 2yo....has some promise moving into his 3yo campaign!

Passed the sixth and J-U-S-T missed in the second stakes of the day when 2nd.  Non-threatening fourth place finish and even less interesting 7th seemed to finish the day for me.  The first of the two "wait and see" bets of the day saw my top choice, who was 12/1 in the program floating at 30/1 close to post time so I just watched.  I watched in wonder as she rallied furiously at 44/1 through the lane, chasing a 17/1 front runner and finished 2nd in a photo.  Oh I'd have been so upset had she got up in time!  So as we approached the finale I was even more interested in my "optional" choice, Undercover Girl who was making her debut for trainer Brad Cox.  She was immediately made the favorite and was a short price throughout the betting.  This normally would have been an automatic bet for me but I wondered WHY he'd worked her a dozen times over the synthetic surface at Turfway and shipped here on real dirt for her debut.  In the end I trusted one of the top trainers in North America, and the bettors.  Much like El Dinero earlier, 'Girl broke at the back of the pack and was quickly well behind.  I wasn't overly concerned because typically the New Orleans track plays to off-the-pace types, and that seemed to have been a winning style through the first two days of racing.  Began advancing three wide but was still about four back into the long stretch.  Found another gear and ran away in an impressive debut.  Led to announcer John G. Dooley posting on Twitter that she was a filly to watch through the upcoming winter season!  

Finished the two days of "Pre-Season Racing" with a sharp 5-for-11 mark (45% WINS) and a small profit to start the season.  Next Thursday, Thanksgiving Day I'll be playing one more time from the Fair Grounds before heading out to Gulfstream for Opening Day on Friday December 1st.

Social Media since the Breeders' Cup.......

Over the nearly two weeks since the Breeders' Cup I'd had several contacts with my social media pals - always makes me happy since I have very little "in person" human contact (or friends locally).  CBS Evening anchor Lauren Pastrana was a multiple contact person but clearly the best of those came when I'd sent her information about my Viking TV presentation and she wrote back to me!

Gal-pal Karli Barnett (formerly of CBS-Miami and now with Atlanta News Now) reacted with a message when I told her about the presentation, then commented on it on her FB Live Chat.  Then when I sent her the updates about doing a "series" and filming in London she was even more excited and messaged me.  Brought a smile to my face :)

Shared the Viking TV "series" news with "adopted daughter" Jillian who was also excited for me.

Same was true for my most favorite former student Kimmy who reacted to my news.

Had an exchange of messages with daughter of best pal Jeff Nelson from CBHS Chloe online when she posted about going to the UCF football game with her dad, my pal.

Trish Christakis messaged me in a delayed reply to a comment I'd made about visiting her home country of Greece a month or two ago.

Jen Cook - a pal from CBHS - who's kept alive the idea of her becoming my "track assistant" once she retires indicated interest in becoming my "TV producer" upon her retirement :)  LOL

Finally, got shout-out reactions from CBS Weekend gals KC & Teri, as well as a reply to birthday wishes for former CBHS Office manager and gal-pal Shasha; and got a rare reply from my waitress friend from the Osiris, Petra.