Rebel Stakes Week

 February 23 - 27

Well it certainly was an unusual Saturday for the Championship Meet at Gulfstream because for only the second time since the first weekend in December I was NOT at the races!  Our daughter Julie and her husband Brendon were down to visit and there was a hockey game at 12:30 pm Saturday afternoon.  So we had a family day at the hockey game and I played just Oaklawn and Gulfstream races online.  It was an excellent week of handicapping as I was able to raise my winning statistics for the month with a late surge!  Here's how the week played out.......

As the week kicked off I was very much aware that the month of February had been a sub-par month for cashing tickets.  But I've also come to recognize that over the long haul my numbers always seem to even out with the winning percentage in the 35% or better range.  So I've learned that I just need to keep with it and things will work out.  The first race of the week in the Wednesday opener was a maiden optional claiming event slated to go five furlongs on the turf.  Anymore, instead of being nearly certain carded turf races WILL be run on the turf, it seems that management is anxious to move them to the all-weather surface, but fortunately that was not the case here.  Morning Cocktail was my top choice.  As I noted in my analysis, even though these were older maidens, IF you were a Beyer speed figure kind of guy - which I am - then my top choice was a standout.  Her last two figures were better than any other speed figure on the page.  In addition to that they were "paired" figures and that would seem to be indicative of a move forward making her all that much harder to take down.  She pressed the 6/1 front runner to the top of the lane then was floated some six wide, losing valuable ground.  But much the best as she surged past in the final sixteenth under confident handling.

I passed the next two races, but as has seemed to be a frequent occurrence, I had the winner listed in my top two choices.  In the second of those two events I had to have a conversation with myself because I rated two horses as very likely winners above all the others, and one of them scratched.  I noted after watching the Handicapping Show before the start of the racing day that I might bet this one.  But as post time approached I just felt like I'd passed this 3yo claiming event for a reason.  The horse was the even money favorite and liked to race near the front but was away slowly.  I thought, "see, that was a smart move!"  Then she blew by the field to win going away.  Oh well.  Passed the fourth and had the winner in my top two again.  In the fifth there were two horses, again, that seemed to standout.  It looked like Wesley Ward's 3yo filly American Starlet would be a short priced favorite and adding to the appeal - even though she was exiting a MSW win over the boys - was that the runner-up had come back to win in impressive fashion.  But instead I thought I had a good handicapping angle to bet instead what turned out to be the second choice in the wagering, Classicstateofmind.  What I liked was first, unlike the Ward filly, this colt had also been impressive in his maiden win, BUT had also come back with a sharp second against winners and had lost to a short-priced favorite.  Add to that a best of 82 bullet work, and if you follow my adventures you know that's a favorite angle of mine.  Broke sharply, went right to the front and was pressed by a 45/1 outsider to the top of the stretch.  Lengthened his stride and was way to far gone before American Starlet made her bid.  Paid a generous $7.60 and I was cashing on my second winner in a row for nearly $40!

Passed the sixth and then was out of the money in the final two races of the again abbreviated Wednesday card.  Thursday turned out to be a very similar kind of day for me.  Passed and then missed twice, the second with what I thought was the most probable winner on the card.  Then in Race 4 I made the comment in my analysis, ".....is it just me or doesn't everyone see when scanning the pp's here that all but the two Maker runners have lost several times at the $20-$35K level and with this being a $50K claimer those should all be tossed?....."  I made Order and Law my top choice who's pp's back to May of 2020 didn't show a SINGLE claiming try AND he'd WON FOUR TIMES in non-claiming events.  The "obvious" short-priced favorite.  Patiently waited while four wide into the turn.  When asked just swept by and drew off handily.  I was half right about the betting as he was the favorite, but in a nine horse field the bettors made one other 3/1 and two others 4/1 leaving Order and Law to be over 5/2 and so I cashed - like yesterday - for nearly $40.

Passed the fifth.  In the sixth I was on the fence about playing or not.  Three horses exited the same Tapeta race and it looked to me like the 6/1 third choice of the three had a solid chance, at a price.  As post time approached he seemed to be fairly cold on the board and in the multi-race pools so I just watched.  Blew by at 6/1 to win.  Again, like yesterday, a horse I was going to add to the betting page I opted out and they won.  What'cha gonna do?  The seventh was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event and there was a Todd Pletcher runner.  I've learned through my many years of playing at Gulfstream that (a) Pletcher rarely has horses in the claiming ranks (even more rare in a restricted event like this), but (b) when he runs them for a tag they win at a high percentage.  And while I don't have the statistical data to back it up, it seems to me that typically when Pletcher puts a horse into the claiming ranks it's NOT a horse he's interested in keeping in the barn.  So he typically puts them not just where they probably belong, but a notch or more below so that he not only gets rid of the horse but also adds another win to his total as he strives to win the claiming title.  Such was the case with Amount in here.  And like so many other claiming runners for the top barn, usually one of the top / go-to jockeys get on to add to their total....Irad Ortiz today.  Settled in fourth going the one-turn mile to the turn.  Began to make-up ground but looked to be wide into the lane and too far back.  Came with one final surge, JUST UP in time! 

Two wins on the day for the second consecutive day.  Friday's card was something that used to be commonplace but now is not, there were TEN races.  I had six selections on the sheet, but two scratched out - one of which was an "also-eligible" runner.  Off the board with the first two so it wasn't until Race 7 that I got my first winner.  And as I told Kim at the time, while the horse won and as the favorite, STILL I was able to cash a "prime time" ticket because I play the races regularly and I know my home town tracks and the connections that run here.  For Y-E-A-R-S I've seen owner Frank Calabrese play the claiming game with a variety of trainers and one of his trademark moves is to claim a horse then plunge it in price and win for fun.  His thing is winning in volumes and he doesn't mind at all to lose a horse via the claiming box because he's just gonna keep on taking them, dropping them and winning.  And every so often he finds a good one that moves up the ladder.  His current go-to trainer is Saffie Joseph who's also begun to get some really good horses in his barn, but still when Joseph plunges a horse, there's no need to worry about the "red flag" that the horse isn't fit and is just for sale.  Oh he's for sale, but the intent is strong.  So we come to Disc Jockey in the seventh which was a one-turn mile for $20K non-winners of three lifetime claiming runners.  This horse had won for fun in a maiden claiming event to kick off his career as a juvenile.  Claimed by Calabrese/Joseph they brought him back in a $50K claiming event for 3yo at the Championship Meet last winter and he won right back, easily.  In his third start he tried a starter stakes and was the 3/5 post time favorite.  A sharp second.  Wasn't seen again for two years.....yes, TWO YEARS.  That was in his most recent when he took on allowance rivals and ran an "ok" fifth.  Considering the step up in class AND the layoff, you have to give him a pass.  Most barns would bring him back in either another allowance or in a high-priced claimer.  Not Calabrese & Joseph.  PLUNGING to the $20K level AND in restricted company he laid over the field.  Add in a sizzling bullet work in a wicked :59.4 and he looked really good.  He was taking money so I upped the original bet to a "prime time" play.  Sat fourth through the far turn and looked ready to roll when asked.  Irad Ortiz was up and when he guided him into the clear and asked, he blew by the field like they were tied to the rail.  Galloped out by to win by a lengthening margin of victory without being asked.  I was SO RIGHT!

That proved to be the lone winner on the Friday card as the fourth pick of the day ran 7th at 2/1.

The hockey game had an early puck drop and we left the house at about 11:45 am, just after scratches were out.  So I made my first six bets from the very limited list of nine playable runners on the two cards.  Our Florida Panthers are among the best teams in the league this year and heading into last week's play we were an amazing 23-3 at home.  But we'd played poorly in those first two games so I was hoping for a bounce-back effort today.  Played very well, but the other team's goalie was the best player on the ice and we lost a close 4-3 decision.  Got home about 3:45 and my first five races had been run so I watched the replays.  In the Gulfstream opener the favorite looked REALLY hard to go past even though it was a mid-level $35K maiden event on the turf.  George Weaver's Conundrum Queen had earned Beyer figures of 69 and 70 in her last two starts.  And those were the ONLY figures in the field that exceeded par for this class level.  Maybe a first timer runs big?  I don't think so with the two firsters coming from barns that were 0-for-13 and 3-for-45 with those.  Add in that the second of those two races for 'Queen had come off an eleven month layoff and she was a best of the rest 2nd.  Found herself mid-pack to top of the stretch, had work to do and finally found her best stride late.....PHOTO finish!

I was fairly sure I'd won but it was indeed close.  Still, I was happy to have started the day with a triple investment winner!  The opener at Oaklawn was next on the sheet.  It looked to be a rematch between two runners who'd run 2nd and 3rd last time out.  I preferred the one who'd gotten the "show dough" because he appeared to have had the worst of the draws and trips.  Sure enough the short priced favorite made his move just as Heartyconstitution (my pick) swung five wide into the lane.  Just blew by to win going away at a nice $6.40 price for my second consecutive winner.  The BET of the Week came in Gulfstream's featured sixth race, the Grade 3 Royal Delta for older fillies and mares.  The odds-on favorite and very, VERY likely winner was going to be Eclipse Award winner Latruska who'd won six of eight starts last season including four Grade 1 wins.  To support her you had to look past her 2020 finale when as the 8/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff she'd finished tenth by over 30 lengths.  But her other Beyers would beat the combined 95 Beyers earned by the rest of the field in their careers.  Add on she was a perfect 3-for-3 at Gulfstream and 6/5-1-0 at this mile and a sixteenth distance and she looked formidable indeed.  I had NEVER been a fan of hers last year, though I did cash five winning tickets on her because, like today, I thought the connections had done a superb job of finding graded stakes which were light in competition.  AND almost always despite EVERYONE and their brother knowing she wanted the front, in all her wins she'd been allowed to gallop along on the front end uncontested.  The gates opened and within half a dozen jumps she was daylight clear of the field.  Jockey Jose Ortiz never moved his hands and she WALKED with it.  Didn't make much money but in this instance it was all about being right and backing her with a big bet!

Three for three!  My next pick was the Grade 3 Honeybee from Oaklawn where three-year-old fillies were looking to stamp their ticket to the Grade 1 $1 Million Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May.  When I first began to follow racing back in the late 1980s the king of thoroughbred racing was trainer D. Wayne Lucas, or "the Coach" as he was affectionately known as.  He still has horses that run all over the country and occasionally one or two in stakes company, but unlike the days when he ruled racing, he has a low winning percentage these days.  BUT this year he's got a special filly, Secret Oath and she'd won the prep for this, the Martha Washington like a really good thing.  Today she was sent off as the prohibitive 1/5 choice and was blocked on the turn with no where to go.  But the rider saw the rail opening up and he dove down inside.  In two jumps she went from fourth to first and was clear.  Ran away as tons the best.  Good for the ole Coach!

Four-for-four!  Finally missed when at Gulfstream I ran a distance 7th at 9/2 odds.  But I came right back in the tenth at GP with Todd Pletcher's Star Seeking.  You recall that Friday I lost two selections to scratches, one as an AE?  Well it was this filly on the turf.  Star Seeking had run a sharp second in her North American debut and first start for Pletcher last time out despite coming off of a five month layoff.  Any kind of second-off-the-layoff improvement and she would be a handy winner.  Right to the front and widened with every stride through the lane in a very impressive win to take down her entry level allowance condition.  Could we see her next in a stakes event?

That proved to be it for the day as I ran 2nd, 4th and 6th all as short priced favorites.  Still, five-for-nine on the day and a clear profit is nothing to sneeze at!  The final day of the racing week saw me with five live plays on the eleven race Gulfstream card.  When I tuned into the "Gulfstream Today" Handicapping show prior to the races I wasn't stunned that hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney wasn't on the desk, but at the end of the card's analysis when GP host Ron Nicoletti said they would be joined later by Ashley Mailloux (who's a hottie in her own right, but not quite the handicapper our very own Acacia is) I was surprised.  I immediately fired off a message to her, since she is my gal-pal on Twitter :)  And minutes later she replied that it was her wedding week so she'd be off for the whole week.  Happy for our girl!  Passed on the opener and in the second I looked to beat the favorite with another Saffie Joseph runner who had run an even sixth last time out and off that dull effort was being RAISED in price today.  Curious!  But the favorite won handily and I was fourth as the 5/2 second choice.  The third was a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds going five furlongs on the new Tapeta surface.  I liked the likely favorite, Whats Goin On who on that aforementioned Handicapping Show had been tabbed as a single by more than one handicapper in their multi-race wagers.  Today was for all intents and purposes just her second career start because in her debut she'd immediately lost the rider.  Last time out she dueled all the way to the wire before losing the head bob.  All the others, with one exception, in here with experience had "best" Beyers that were 30+ points slower than Whats Goin On had earned and the firsters came from barns that were a combined 0-for-16 with those.  The one that looked like a threat on the numbers had been beaten by Whats Goin On by almost three lengths last time out.  Right to the front, she took pressure and was head strong wanting to go on with it.  But Miguel Vasquez kept a hold on her to the top of the lane and when let go ran away as much the best.

Missed at 3/5 and then passed three straight.  This was a maiden claiming event for older going a mile and seventy yards on the all weather.  And to be honest, on the first run through what I saw were all runners who'd lost at this $16K level and a class dropping, Parx shipper who'd never been over the synthetic AND came from a barn that 1-for-16.  I was set to pass when I read Ron Nicoletti's comments that Six Minus came from the Todd Pletcher barn.  Wait a tic.....I re-examined the runner.  Anyone else but Mr. Todd and I'd probably have stayed away.  But, (a) Pletcher a sharp 29% with second off the shelf runners, (b) jockey Tyler Gaffalione is winning at a 41% clip for the barn; and (c) owner Michael Repole had shelled out $100K to buy this one originally so someone at one time thought he could run.  Was NOT the smoothest of trips and/or rides as she was away at the back....three wide in the first turn AND all the way down the backside; then FOUR wide on the turn and fanned at least FIVE wide into the lane.  In the final 16th accelerated....PHOTO FINISH!

Up in time and paid a generous $6.20 so I cashed for over $30 on my second winner of the day!  In the ninth I probably would have bet Mid Day Image who wired the field and paid a generous 2/1, but there was a Todd Pletcher runner in the field who ran a good third at 4/1.  As I figured, Mid Day Image was loose on the lead.  The tenth and "featured" race on the final card of the week was a seven furlong conditioned allowance that featured budding star First Captain.  Hall of Fame Shug McGaughey had really been high on this colt last year as a 3yo.  He'd won at first asking and in his first test against winners - I was watching on "America's Day At The Races" - he talked about an impressive win would send him to stakes company.  Won for fun and came back to win the Grade 3 Dwyer at Belmont.  Off that they were using the restricted, nine furlong Curlin at Saratoga as a prep for a run at the $1 Million Travers.  But he was a disappointing third that day and he was put away for the year.  So today, you KNOW they have bigger targets than this allowance, and it would be safe to say that even though he won his debut at today's 7f distance, this was NOT his ideal trip.  Still, on raw talent he figured to win.  Was at the back, but only about five off the leader into the far turn.  Began to pick off horses but at the top of the lane the front runner skipped away.  Uh oh, it's going to be a "we're happy with how he ran" kind of race, but then he found another gear, came flying.....PHOTO FINISH!

UP in time for my third winner on the day!  WHOOO HOOO.  And for the week, check this out :)  Next week will be a HUGE week of racing.  On Saturday it's Fountain of Youth Day and Santa Anita Handicap Day where the two Stronach-owned tracks will have a combined FOURTEEN stakes races.  And it's Gotham Day in New York, their version of the FOY for 3yo card.  BIG DAY - and I already have our tickets :)

Rebel Weekend Racing Highlights

Social Media This Week.....

On Monday "my girl" Karli Barnett was anchoring - and you may recall she's the weekend anchor.  Last time this happened and I messaged her she replied, "it's all Karli all the time" and so i sent HER this message.  She reached back out to me, by my name - not my Twitter handle :)

On Wednesday, on the Gulfstream Today Handicapping Show Ron Nicoletti told another joke which sent Acacia over the top.  Love those guys!

On Thursday I was in touch with Acacia not once but twice.  She first nailed a 5/1 winner which I immediately congratulated her and got a reply back, then......

Later in the day she got on her Facebook account and reacted to a post I'd put out there two weeks ago following the Eclipse Awards show.

Our good friend and former co-worker Mishele was in Gainesville over the weekend.  She and I "chat" nearly every week during football season about "our Gators."  So when she posted a "Go Gators" pic I messaged her and she replied.

Saturday evening Karli hosted a Facebook Live chat and I just caught a few minutes of it.  But when I messaged her a "Happy Saturday Karli" she almost immediately looked down to see my message and replied on air, "Oh Hey Mark, Happy Saturday!"

On Sunday - if you read the above journal - when Acacia wasn't on air Sunday she told me it was her wedding week and we exchanged messages.

Finally, twice last week, fashion Channel 10 anchor Jayce Birch had cute outfits and reacted to my comments about them.

Tampa Festival Preview / Risen Star-Winter Sprintfest

 Weeks of February 9 - 13 & February 16 - 21

This journal covers two weeks worth of racing instead of the regular one week because splitting the two weeks of racing Kim and I took off for Colorado and a three-night Denver Anniversary Getaway.  After arriving on Sunday evening we spent literally the entire day Monday, Valentine's Day in Rocky Mountain State Park.  Then Tuesday we spent the day enjoying all the amenities of the Gaylord Rockies Resort.  So, I was away and occupied on the typical journal-writing day.

CLICK HERE To Visit Our "Denver Anniversary Getaway" Web Page

Tampa Preview Week

In the three days leading up to Tampa Bay Preview Day I won with five of thirteen selections at Gulfstream, all short priced favorites.....

Oakhurst scores in Wednesday's 3rd

Lido Key WINS The 3rd on Thursday

You're Killin Me Easily in Thursday's 8th

Trevess Is The First Of Two Friday Winners

Alecka Star Runs Away With Friday's 9th

On Saturday Keith and I headed out to Gulfstream a little before 11 am.  We got our seats and settled in for a full day's worth of action as I had selections from not only the big, stakes-filled Tampa card and the live Gulfstream card, but also had picks from Laurel, Aqueduct, and Oaklawn.  The first three winners came in a Tampa Bay maiden event, a 3-lifetime event at Aqueduct, and a 2-lifetime Laurel sprint.  Noteworthy that in the Tampa race Todd Pletcher's Macallan had lost a photo to his stablemate earlier in the meet and was easily best today; then in New York I was against the favorite and my pick, Girl of Tosconova was a daylight winner but paid a whopping $11.  WHOO HOOO!  After missing on four races, included the first of the two Gulfstream featured turf sprints (as the favorite didn't hit the board at 1/5 odds, wow), I then won four of the next five, all MSW events - one each from Tampa, Laurel, Aqueduct, and Oaklawn!  Noteworthy here, two of them were 2/1 winners with a double investment allowing me to cash for over $30 on both.  The next winner on the sheet was my first stakes winner of the day, and the first stakes win of the day at Tampa...AND was my Tampa Bay BEST Bet.  Todd Pletcher's filly, Nest had won multiple graded stakes and was making her 3yo debut in this $150K listed event as she began her quest to get to the first Friday in May and the $1 Million Kentucky Oaks.  Jockey Irad Ortiz got her off the inside and into the clear while tracking the pace all the way to the far turn.  Three-wide he let her coast up to the lead and once she straightened out she opened up willing and ran off as much the best!

I came right back to rattle off four more wins from the next five bets including my first winner locally when Charge It lived up to his odds on status to runaway with a MSW one-turn mile.  

The final win of the day came in the featured event of the day, the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa where the colts were looking to stamp their ticket to the first Saturday in May and the Kentucky Derby.  I thought if Brian Lynch's Classic Causeway was ready to run today he looked much the best.  Irad Ortiz immediately went to the front but was hounded through pretty fast fractions all the way into the far turn.  I was not optimistic and I did think at the time that if he was going to win he'd not only have to be the best colt in the race but he'd have to be MUCH the best.  Let loose at the top of the lane he took off and drew off as easily best!

The Sunday selections didn't produce a single winner - but it was of little concern to me as we readied to head to the airport and fly to Colorado!

Tampa Bay Preview Day Highlights

Risen Star / Winter Sprintfest Week

The first day of racing for the week was our "travel day" home.  I saw my lone winner score while waiting to board the plane in Denver when Financial System scored as the 4/5 favorite in the third race.  Interesting to note, I thought that the week day races were particularly weak, especially for the "World Class Racing" of the so-called Championship Meet.  And it fit that description as I had only four picks on the Wednesday card, ONE on Thursday (though to be fair two scratched out), before having five on Friday.  Lost that one race Thursday and had only one "win" on Friday - I put it in quotes because he was DQ'd so I didn't get to cash the ticket, sigh.

The big Saturday card was a mixture of emotions for me.  On the overall upside, I did win over 30% of my selections and obviously enjoyed being at the races.  On the flip side I had three big bets that all "should win" as I described them to Keith.  Won with the first, the other two were clear in mid-stretch but got nailed on the wire sealing a financial loss for the day despite hitting a good percentage.  I watched the second race from Gulfstream from the rail and I knew I wouldn't get rich with Pretty Rachel, but I was nearly certain I'd win.  She'd won eight of her last nine, the one loss coming in a rich Claiming Crown stakes.  And she'd done so for four different barns.  Was first off the claim today and not only had the best numbers, but was the lone speed.  Right to the front and long gone.

The fourth at Laurel was the first of their Winter Sprintfest Stakes races, the Wide Country for 3yo fillies going seven furlongs.  In Luna Belle's last two starts she'd won back-to-back stakes races.  And the numbers she earned in those races topped all thirty-two lifetime numbers earned by the rest of the field.  In fact the "closest" to those was half a dozen points slower, the rest double digits so.  Looked much the best.  Now, if you've followed my adventures over the last year or so you know that one of the most common events happening to my horses is that they seem to break at the back of the field.  Well Luna Belle I knew would come from off the pace, but when the rider immediately took her to the back of the field I thought it was a bit too far off the pace.  As the field hit the far turn and the camera zoomed in somewhat all the horses were on the screen EXCEPT Luna Belle.  Finally you could see her rallying, but as they straightened she was very wide and next to last.  But visually you could see she'd hit a whole other gear and was gobbling up ground easily, all the while under a hand ride.  BLEW BY the field and won by daylight going away!  WHOOO HOOO.  You'll note on the photo below that the ticket is not a "live/on-track" ticket.  That's because Friday I saw that Laurel Park was offering a money-back special if you ran 2nd or 3rd if you bet online.  So I made all my Maryland bets on my Xpressbet app.

The money-back special offer:

After a miss at the Fair Grounds I won my second race at Gulfstream.  It was a MSW turf sprint and Big Invasion looked easily best on paper.  Right out of the gate I was encouraged because she broke cleanly, whew.  Tracked the long shot leader into the turn without being asked and when Irad Ortiz gave her the green light she burst away as tons the best.

I made a "bad choice" with my next winner.  When I handicapped the big stakes-laden card from the Fair Grounds the first several races were maiden events. In the fourth race, a six furlong sprint there was a Todd Pletcher horse, with Luis Saez on board listed at 6/1 in the program.  Without any one else looking like a clear win candidate, he was my top choice.  As I walked towards "the twins" to bet, I saw on the monitor that he was 10/1 in the betting.  I checked the multi-race payouts and he was either the second or third choice, but as I continued to watch he was still cold on the board.  So I opted to cut the bet in half.  They broke from the gate and immediately from post ten he went to challenge the leader.  They dueled to deep stretch before Momentous - the Pletcher colt - edged clear.  He'd come down to 9/2 and I regretted cutting the wager as I could have collected nearly $50, but still the near $25 payoff was nice.  The sixth at Laurel was the Nellie Morse Stakes for older fillies and mares.  As I told Keith prior to the race, this was a very legitimate "race track logic" handicapping angle that I felt very good about.  Miss Leslie and Kiss the Girl had met twice lately and in both instances 'Leslie finished in front of 'Girl.  Out of their last, an Aqueduct stakes, Kiss the Girl had come back to win while Miss Leslie had been idle.  AND Miss Leslie's Beyers were spiraling downward while Kiss the Girl's figures continued to improve.  As they ran through the turn Kiss the Girl was about to split horses while Miss Leslie was four wide and in the clear.  Suddenly the gap closed and Kiss the Girl was steadied sharply.  I turned to look at Keith and his head had dropped.  What bad luck.  But suddenly she quickly recovered, split horses and drew off as Miss Leslie flattened out to be third.  The 5/2 odds (while Miss Leslie was odds on) paid off for a nearly $40 collection!

Another online winning bet!  Missed on the next four, one of which was the BET of the Day when Just Might went easily to the front in the Fair Grounds' Colonel Power turf sprint, was clear by daylight in mid stretch but inexplicably weakened in the final 16th to be nailed in the final fifty yards. :(  In the 9th at Gulfstream it was an entry level turf sprint allowance.  Hit the Whoa was the favorite for Irad Ortiz, but at the top of the lane he was last with work to do......FLYING.....PHOTO FINISH!

Hit The Whoa (#3) JUST UP In Time

JUST up in time, I thought so live, but it was awfully close.  I won my third stakes at Laurel in the Grade 3 General George with one of the very coolest horses in Maryland, Cordmaker.  He had won several stakes over the last year plus but he'd always done so going a mile to a mile and an eighth.  Today he cut back to seven furlongs.  Still, he was the best horse.  Sat closer to the pace, edged to the front and was clear of the 45/1 front runner while drifting outward through the lane.  Keith immediately said, "They won't take him down for that" and walked away.  Moments later, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets please there is a jockey objection and a steward's inquiry into the running through the stretch involving the top two finishers."  Seriously?  And they looked at it over and over again.  I kept thinking that I've seen horses taken down for similar, but CLEARLY (a) the best horse won and (b) he was obviously clear as he drifted out.  Finally.....no change :)

Ironically, in betting only my eight Laurel bets had resulted in three wins - no money back obviously there - four off the board finishes, where two of them led in deep stretch only to be JUST outfinished in fourth; and one second that I'll get my money back.  Had I been able to forsee this I would much have preferred to bet "real money" and collect "real money."  The Gulfstream Sprint was my second best bet and Grade 1 winner Drain The Clock looked formidable.  Pressed in the clear to the stretch, opened up and looked long gone.  But then just like Just Might at the Fair Grounds, he weakened in the final 16th and was nailed on the wire at 2/5 odds.  Sigh.....  We headed home and in the last four bets, all stakes at the Fair Grounds I cashed only on the Grade 3 Mineshaft when Bill Mott's Olympiad was easily best.

Interesting to note that on the big day at the Fair Grounds the winners of the twelve races paid: $3.40, $38.40, $19.40, $11.80 (my bet), $21.20, $12.00, $41.40 (where I was second at 3/5), $5.60, $51.00 , $4.00 (my bet), $72.60 (where I was second at 7/2), $37.00, and $9.00.  NOT too many handicappers had a good day in New Orleans!  I finished off the week with three bets at Gulfstream.  I remarked in the opening of my analysis that with showers predicted for overnight it would be unclear if we stayed on the turf.  It USED to be one thing I much preferred about Gulfstream over Calder was that even if it rained in the morning, GP kept races on the grass.  But with the introduction of the new Tapeta surface management seems intent on pushing the surface.  And they are quick to pull the trigger to take races off the turf to run here.  I personally believe there is some "pushback" because in the last couple weeks on the Handicapping Show prior to the races, any time we are off the turf it's now become a major point of emphasis that "....with the new Tapeta track we have very few scratches....." in the commentary.  In reality there are multiple scratches and more as the meet goes on.  And I also believe one of the reasons that the quality of the cards has declined is because the number of dirt races and turf races have been significantly reduced with at least 40% of the races going on the Tapeta.  I won with all three of the plays and the fourth bet I'd made a "TURF ONLY" bet, but he was the tepid 2/1 favorite and won so I "should" have been 4-for-4.  I did up the bet on the third bet so it was a $50 profit for the day, and I'll take that!

Coop Tries Harder Draws Off In Sunday's 3rd

Pressley's Hope (on a classic Early Speed, Class Drop, Route-To-Sprint angle) springs the upset in the 4th

Upped the bet on Fawning who ran away in the 8th

President's Day Special Holiday Racing

I was a bit surprised that there was no racing at Gulfstream on the holiday Monday and even more so when the other three Stronach track all ran live races.  When I noted there WAS holiday racing on Friday I thought I'd play today.  Then when I discovered Gulfstream was not running I hesitated.  But on Sunday I decided, why not and so I began handicapping.  Got through the Laurel and Oaklawn card as racing got under way and then I went the perfect 3-for-3 on the day.  Was TODAY the day that my numbers evened out?  To play on Monday and drop my winning figures down would NOT be the way I wanted to end the week.  So I held off handicapping Santa Anita.  Got up on Monday and thought, why not, let 'er rip!  So I handicapped the west coast races.  WOW was I glad I did :)  Won the first four picks of the day as Sea Pines blew by late in Laurel opener at a generous $6.60 after I upped the bet!  No bet until the 6th in Maryland where Hybrid Eclipse drew off as my "Laurel best" of the day.  Then won my first bet at Oaklawn when Fastest Spin drew away at 4/5.  And capped the early blitz by watching Coastal Mission get up in time at Laurel in their 7th.  Missed in the Laurel finale but came right back with my "Oaklawn best" as Greely and Ben won.  I was not surprised he was 3/5 at post time because his pp's showed ELEVEN wins from the twelve running lines on the page.  AND he'd won three stakes, so he was clearly the class of this $16K starter event.  What a start!

I didn't really like my fist pick from Santa Anita, but I liked her enough that when she was Brad Free's best bet I went in for the minimum.  Third - should have trusted my own opinion more.  In my last bet at Oaklawn I took a shot with former Gr 2 winner Concert Tour.  Right to the front and JUST failed to last at a big 5/1 price.  That would have been nice, but in the end I can't be too greedy!  At Santa Anita there were two stakes races.  The first was the Spring Fever going six furlongs and it featured the unbeaten filly Becca Taylor.  Just looked oh so tough.  Pressed the lead to the top of the lane and ran off under a hand ride!

The second stakes at Santa Anita was the Tiznow Stakes going a two-turn mile.  Brickyard Ride was in this listed stakes and clearly was the class and the speed.  He had won a Grade 2 here and multiple other stakes.  But all of his races were sprints.  And his best efforts were at six furlongs.  I appreciated that prior to the race the trainer was up front in admitting, on the TVG telecast that they were using this race to see if he COULD stretch out because it would give them options.  If he couldn't they knew they could always go back to sprinting.  I thought - in spite of there being other speed that he was just too fast and would lead them on a merry chase.  Too much pressure and he might not get the distance, but if I was right and he was clear early, he'd be long gone.  Quickly opened a daylight lead that became a nearly ten length lead into the far turn and waltzed home!

I SHOULD have won the last bet of the day when Oubabe had all, ALL kinds of traffic trouble in the lane and still was the most desperate of noses from the win in a photo finish that they had to look at multiple times to determine the winner.  Still, for the day.....SEVEN-for-ELEVEN, WOW!

Racing Highlights February 16 - 21

Social Media This Week.......

Going back two weeks, after chatting with CBS4 anchor Karli Barnett on Saturday she showed up on the anchor desk that Monday and I reached out to her and she gave me a cute reply.

My other favorite "gal-pal anchor" is Lauren Pastrana.  It was her 35th birthday over that weekend and I reached out to her photo regarding a Disney Day birthday trip.

The Eclipse Awards were aired and featured were four of my favorite female handicappers who served as co-hostesses.  I reached out to them more than once....

My new gal-pal/fashionista Jayce Birch posted a photo where I commented on how her nails matched the outfit which led to an exchange of comments.  I know it may not mean much to others, but for this personality to reach out and "chat" with me was cool.

One of our best friends, and a hottie MILF is Michelle who's asked us to come visit her in North Carolina but we have yet to.  She and I exchanged comments online.

"Our girl" Jillian posted about her third children's book being published and we exchanged comments after I told her how proud we are of her.

I truly miss my former student and gal-pal Kimmy who's moved to North Carolina.  Her new daughter is the cutest.  And by having a little one she moves from the category of a hottie to a MILF to all guys who just look at her.  Lucky to still stay in touch with her, she's so sweet.

Jayce posted a cute yellow dress and I commented.....

My great friend Shari Bush's older daughter just got engaged and my congratulations got a sweet reaction from her.

Prior to going to Colorado I'd reached out to another of my favorite former girls, Jennifer.  I did so because when she was a senior and I was her "mentor" in the WISE program she'd told me she was going to the University of Colorado.  I asked if she knew someone out there and she said no.  I told her how brave she was.  The following fall she was soooooo homesick and I tried to message her frequently.  In November of that fall I was going to California to see my oldest son and all the flights had layovers in Denver so I asked her if she'd like me to come early, get a car and come spend the day with her.  She was so happy and we spent the day together.  Her parents reached out so appreciative.  And doing that made me feel so good because she ended up staying there, graduated from Colorado and still lives there in the Denver area.  So we planned to get together.  But Kim and I cut our trip short by a day when we made final arrangements and we just didn't have time to see Jen.  That led to our exchange on Facebook.

Me & Jen At The University of Colorado Several Years Ago

The big stakes day at the Fair Grounds drew the TVG crew and national coverage.  At last year's Florida Derby the main host of the racing coverage Todd Schrupp and my oldest son, Jeff, ran into each other.  Todd used to be at Calder and Jeff brought that up.  They exchanged phone numbers and became Twitter pals and so Todd and I became such.  Well, while in New Orleans he posted a pic from Cafe du Monde and I replied.

Our Florida Panthers played on TV and one of the cute studio hostesses, Katie Gaus tweeted out.  I replied and got an immediate response.

Finally on President's Day my top Facebook Memory was a photo of our hottie gal-pal Michelle from her last visit here, cuddling with me in the chilly weather at a soccer game.  Got a sweet "reply."