Week 2 at Gulfstream

 December 8 - 12

I SHOULD be in Europe sailing down the Rhine River with my niece but the unsettled times throughout Europe led to us cancelling and hoping for a future trip there.  And so the week kicked off as the first FULL week of five days at Gulfstream.  On Wednesday I was ready to return to action off the huge payout last Sunday.  I passed the opener, showing restraint - which I must say, I was very conscious of not wanting to play just because, but only if I really thought I had an angle.  In the second I liked Old Time Revival to spring the upset over the short-priced program favorite Life In Shambles.  the last time 'Revival was at this level he'd won for fun.  Was going synthetic to dirt and had "dirtied form" with two bad losses vs. better.  What was interesting was that he was 7/2 with minutes to post while 'Shambles was the heavy 2/5 favorite.  They loaded into the gate and they were off.  As they passed the opening quarter mile pole the odds popped up and suddenly Life in Shambles was 9/5 and my pick was the even money favorite!  Took the lead in hand and rolled home as much the best.  

Right back in the third in a maiden claimer going a one-turn mile.  SEVENTY-ONE tries for the field without a win, ouch.  Lefthooklightsout debuted at this low level, but there was reason to believe he'd improve today.  He broke last, and still ran fourth; the winner AND runner-up had both come back to score; and he was claimed by a barn that wins with 24% of those kind.  Hot riding Paco Lopez on board sealed the bet.  Probably, with all those angles should have gone in deeper.  Went right to the front and wire to wire easily.  Two-for-two to start the day!

I "knew" I'd lose the next bet - after winning two minimum plays, now I WAS upping the bet.  Yep, 2nd as the 1-2 favorite, wow.  Pass and a fourth, then two pass races before the "best" of the day.  The 9th was a synthetic two-turn event and Ron Nicoletti made Sweet Serenade his BEST Bet.  In her last try she was "bumped and pinched back, then blocked" and still ran 2nd in an allowance event at this same distance over the similar Tapeta track at Woodbine.  'Serenade was near the back and wide from the get-go, launched a four-wide rally and would not give up when seemingly destined to not catch the front runner.  Wore that one down in the final 200 yards and edged clear to close out the day 3-for-5.  WHOOO HOOOO.

Thursday, well all I can say is I had eight selections, probably was a little too lenient on the picks, but I ran second EIGHT times.  A frustrating day, but I felt like I kept an even keel - all the time I kept thinking that IF I do not win today I WILL win later, and perhaps that will be Saturday when I'm on track.  And I'd be OK with that.  On Friday I finally snapped the skid, and I did so with what turned out to be the BEST Bet of the week in Mr. Prankster.  Even on the early Handicapping Show both analysts remarked that he looked so hard to beat at a very short price.  It was a 2yo allowance so, ok.  But his figures were a POLE faster  and the only time he was NOT in a stakes race he earned a massive 92 Beyer figure.  Trained by Todd Pletcher with Luis Saez up he looked formidable.  Well, he did win, that's the good news.  But he tracked the leader into the lane apparently waiting for his cue, but when asked did not accelerate by.  It was a stretch long battle, but he edged clear at the end.....I'll take the win any way I can get it at this point.

Saturday December 11

As the banner at the top of the page says, it was "Beat The Expert" Day and so, once I heard the team talk about that in the pre-races analysis on Friday I logged into gulfstreampark.com and entered my top choices for the day to see if I could out handicap the pretty Acacia Courtney.  As you can guess from looking at the banner above, I was playing multiple tracks today.  I considered originally just playing Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds, where it was Louisiana Champions Day.  But in the end I also added Aqueduct, Tampa, and Oaklawn.  The first good thing to happen on Saturday was that I found "the twins," tellers I've "known" for many years who's names are Kimberly and Karen (like my wife Kimberly and her twin Karrie).  They are big hockey fans and we began chatting about the Panthers right away.  But after making my first bets with them I was walking near the back side of the Silks Simulcast area when I saw one of my most favorite tellers, Hannah.  She used to be a regular on the "casino side" of the facility and I would frequent her window a lot.  Always seemed to have good luck with her.  Then last spring she was posted outside on Florida Derby Day and I made all my bets with her, and I had a BIG day then.  Looked for her last week but never found her.  So I went over to her and asked if she'd been here last weekend and she replied they'd put her upstairs on the third floor, "all alone" as Hannah put it.  Poor baby.  I promised I'd come back to her window for the rest of the day.  And with the bets I made with the twins I ran 6th at 7/5, 2nd at 2/1 and a disappointing third at 2/5.  Made the next sequence of bets with Hannah and over that time span I won with SIX of the seven, and I pointed out to her that she had the "magic hands," and she replied she was glad to know she did.   That first winning ticket came in the third at Gulfstream, a six panel maiden claiming event.  If you JUST looked at his pp's you'd not be impressed, but it's all about the match-up.  While the rest of the field had been being beaten at this $12.5K level he'd been hitting the board vs. $20K rivals.  Looked hard to go past.  I doubled the bet.  He tracked the field to the far turn, took over and drew off as much the best.  No sooner had it gone official, which I watched on a big jumbotron in the breezeway, when on the big screen next to it I watched my first winner at Tampa come home.  Take To The Skies was in a cheap maiden event going a mile on the turf.  But IF she ran back to her best numbers she'd win big.  The problem was those numbers had come last spring.  I had confidence that she would because her best number HAD indeed come when coming off a layoff.  Tracked the leader to the turn, drew on event terms turning for home and edged clear in the final 16th.  On the adjacent wall of the breezeway was another giant screen showing Aqueduct.  I watched Mischievous Diane run away as the favorite over the sloppy track in the winter cold of New York.  And finally, I got my second winner in a row at Gulfstream when Todd Pletcher unveiled Dean's List in a six furlong MSW for 2yo.  What ever formula the DRF morning line uses is so SO off - and I rant about this often - when they listed the WinStar runner at 20/1.  Didn't fool the crowd or either of the two GP handicappers - Acacia Courtney and Ron Nicoletti.  The DRF's Mike Welsch had a better idea and he was dead wrong, like the DRF line.  'Dean dueled to the far turn, put that one away and then drew off easily as my co-BEST bet.  And I was now tied with Acacia for the "lead" in the "Beat the Experts" duel.  You may wonder, if you read last week's journal, how I was able to "see" the action....well, once I became aware that the tote board and jumbotron were gone I ordered binoculars on Amazon.  Came the next day and I brought them out today!

"I Can See Clearly Now...."

The first win of the day!

Start of a GOOD day at Tampa

"Baby it's cold outside...."

Who DOESN'T KNOW Todd Pletcher 2yo in Dec win at first asking....apparently the DRF's Mike Welsch!

Ran third at Oaklawn, seem to be struggling there so far this winter, and I was so excited they opened early this year.  Hmmmm.  Back at it with a winner in the first of two stakes at Tampa.  Last weekend here at Gulfstream and at the beginning of this week jockey Paco Lopez was hot - won FIVE races last Saturday on the Claiming Crown card.  So with several of the "big boys" still not here yet you KNOW he'd get some top flight calls today.  But instead he was in Tampa, and he was on Georgina Baxter's favored R Adios Jersey.  This gal had WON the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks last time out....had paired figures that towered over the field....AND a bullet work locally.  Looked long gone.  Right to the front and just galloped getting the patented "Paco Lopez condescending look under the shoulder" turning for home.  Good times at a short price.  Minutes later it was time for Oaklawn's second and my pick had scratched which I thought made the favorite an even MORE likely winner.  Beverly Park had won EIGHT in a row prior to a neck loss last time out.  BIG time favorite at 1/5 opened up turning for home like a 1/5 should then was life and death to hold on at the wire....whew, I'll take my SIXTH winner of the day!

Paco runs a "hole in the wind" as TONS the best in the first of two Tampa stakes

NOT the way you'd think a 1/5 shot would win!

Missed on three in a row, what's up Hannah? before getting back into the winner's circle with the second of the two featured events in Tampa, the Marion County.  I liked Shivaree's chances who'd run some really big races three years ago here as a sophomore.  He'd won this stakes event in Tampa last year BUT, he'd not won since.  Uh oh.  To be fair, since last July he'd run strictly in stakes events with four of those being graded, so to be in a $100K restricted event, over a track you know he liked was a plus.  AND Paco was up.  A bit concerned when well off the pace to the turn.  Began picking off horses on the turn, but was spun some six wide into the lane with work to do.  Was eating up ground, but it was still in doubt to the final 100 yards before he got up in time.  Two stakes - two wins at Tampa.....it was a good decision for Paco to make the trip to Oldsmar and I'm glad I tagged along!

Paco Lopez SWEEPS The Tampa Stakes....

......and so do I - TWO for TWO in the featured events!

Maybe the highlight of the day came next at Gulfstream.  Much like today's fourth, it was a maiden special event for juveniles and there was a Todd Pletcher first time starter, again luring top rider Luis Saez.  It was slated for a one-turn mile and I liked Emmanuel who was a $350K WinStar farm sales purchase.  But what made this special for me was that NOT ONE of the other public handicappers picked him.

Really, I'm the ONLY one who likes Emmanuel?

I will admit that the fact Ron Nicoletti made Touch Code his "BEST" was worrisome as he's rarely wrong with his "best," and then over the on-track broadcast, Acacia just gushed about the way that colt looked and how he'd worked out.  Am I wrong?  I had a quick chat with myself and reminded myself just how many, HOW MANY times the crowd is wrong about Pletcher and especially with young maidens.  I made Emmanuel my co-BEST.  He broke sharply from the rail and took pressure to the turn.  Put that rival away and as heads turned for home here came more challengers.  Saez let out a notch and he exploded in an ultra-impressive performance that drew praised from Announcer Pete as he glided home across the finish line where I was standing along the rail!  WHOOOO HOOOO.

THAT is what a winner looks like at Gulfstream Park!

Again, who DOESN'T KNOW To Back Todd Pletcher youngsters?  Thanks for the cash everyone!

It was Louisiana Champions Day at the Fair Grounds and I almost always do well on that day.  But I ran third at 2/1 in the first added money event there, which proved to be the way it was going to go in New Orleans for me today.  Missed in NY when 2nd before the 7th rolled around at Tampa.  On the one hand, I congratulate myself for just risking the minimum on Pugilist because I wasn't "all in" with confidence on him.  But on the other hand, at a fair price with the angle I thought I had - probably should have gone in for more of an investment.  You see, the field for this nine furlong turf event had a combined ZERO wins....and only THREE starts at the extended trip.  So, as I wrote in my analysis, who gets the distance is the question.  I thought I had a good answer, and again...in retrospect....I should have been more confident.  Last spring I was at Churchill Downs with my buddy Keith.  And in the finale at Monmouth that day I accidently made my bet on Pugilist in a turf route when jockey Jose Ferrer was up.  He went wire to wire that day at a big 5/1, so my thinking here was, what if he gets out in front and is LONG gone again because there is no other speed in the race.  Right to the front - got the opening half mile in a pedestrian :49 and was long gone.  Paid a generous $6.80 and I only had the minimum so I cashed for nearly $20....a bigger bet and I'd have had a MUCH bigger reward.

He does it AGAIN!

Missed out of town on two before the featured Garland of Roses at Aqueduct came up.  It looked to me like you could go one of two ways on the program favorite, Glass Ceiling.  On the one hand, until her last two she had been a "good" filly.  And on the basis of all those races, a short price was NOT worth taking.  But in her last two, suddenly she'd posted big figures.  Two back she'd cleared the entry level allowance level with a huge 93 number, well over anything she'd previously run.  Came back to try stakes company in the Pumpkin Spice here at Aqueduct and was a just-miss second with an even better 94 Beyer.  Which would we get today.  One angle I like is the KEY race angle where when a race produces a winner (even better if more than one) then others exiting that race are probably also going to run well.  In the Pumpkin Spice, the filly that had narrowly beaten Glass Ceiling was Lady Rocket who last weekend came back to run away with the Grade 3 Go For Wand Stakes.  OK, I'm in.  Glass Ceiling was a very short (3/5) price as they walked up to the gate.  And I was concerned when sitting at the back of the pack.  But she was picking off horses on the turn, was some six wide into the lane and had all the momentum as she swept by to win going away.  AND her price floated all the way up to 8/5 so I cashed for almost $40!

Easy-peasy-pie for Glass Ceiling in the NY Feature!

My final winner at Gulfstream was the "other" great story of the day.  The ninth was a starter allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the new all weather track.  No one stood out, but the fact that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was on Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott's Landbiscuit made me interested.  He had a wide trip, but in the clear through the far turn.  Made his move, dueled and was just up in time.  If you watch the highlight video you'll hear me yelling, "He's going to WIN!"  What I did not know, because there is no toteboard was that he was a mammoth 6/1 price at post time so my $5 wager brought back over $35!  WOW.  And better yet, this was the win that carried me to the front in the "Beat the Experts" race!

BIG Time price on Hall of Fame connections....go figure

I closed out the winning with two of the last nine - the first being my FIFTH winner in Tampa - had not done well there last weekend, man...you never know.  Jura looked to be a standout in the Tampa finale, a turf sprint under MSW conditions.  She looked ready to run stalking the leader and cleared that one in deep stretch to win going away.  Then I FINALLY won one of the La Champions Stakes at the Fair Grounds when Unified Report split horses in mid-stretch for a narrow win.

Close on the wire, but really never in doubt

FINALLY a win in New Orleans

As soon as the final race was over I looked at my Gulfstream Handicappers' sheet and took a photo.  Sent it to Acacia and while I probably will NOT be the winner of the polo shirt, I did edge her out and I'll take great pride in that.  Her congratulatory reply was all the "award" I needed.

NOTE:  DRF analyst Mike Welsch, who gets PAID to do this....WINLESS in eleven selections, wow

Thank you Acacia!

Saturday December 11 Racing Highlights

The week came to a close on Sunday.  It was an "ok" end to the week.  Missed in the opener when my horse didn't fire.  Passed the next two - the horse I named in the first didn't run all that well, but in the third I noted, "consider making the bet if she takes money" - but she was luke warm in all the pools.  Didn't play, but she won at a big 5/1 number.  Sigh....My Upset Special, which was also Acacia's went off at 2/1 and ran 4th behind my second choice who won at 4/5.  Out of the money at 7/2 in the fifth.  Then I got on the board with what everyone in the pre-racing handicapping show had said would be the shortest price on the day.  Peter D was 1/5 heading to the gate as the "Captain Obvious" choice in this 2yo starter optional claiming event going a mile-70.  This colt had won three of four starts, including a listed stakes but due to his debut maiden win for a tag was still eligible to run here.  Didn't think I'd make much money but he was the oh so clear winner.  All kinds of trouble...in traffic to the far turn, and horses often just quit running when they feel crowded like that.  No where to go, blocked, then swung wide into the lane, but STILL blew by them.  Shortly after the win Acacia posted how she was becoming a fan and I replied (see below).  In the seventh, a five and a half furlong sprint on the main track there originally looked to be several speed types, but Cool Quest looked quickest of the quick.  Then three horses scratched out, so as the betting went along and he was 4/5 I figured that was "fair" under the new projected race flow.  Into the gate and IMMEDIATELY he went to the front.  But when the odds flashed up on the screen somehow he'd floated all the way up to 2/1 odds.  What the???  Walked with it and paid a big $6.20 so I collected over $30 on my final winner of the week.

Next Saturday is a H-U-G-E day.....not one, but FIVE big stakes races on the card, all of which are designed to be local preps for the late January Pegasus World Cup Day.  It's not officially called Pegasus Preview Day, but that's what WE will be calling it :)

Social Media Contacts....

One of my favorite gals from my WISE program days at Cypress Bay, Kristy, posted pics of her and her new man.  She was always the sweetest, and what I remember most about her was that her project was on barrel-riding and her Mom gave her a horse as part of the project!  Kristy went on to ride competitively at Eastern Kentucky University and then professionally.  I also recall a bad break-up with a boy friend, so my comment that she looks so happy was truly heart-felt.

My gal-pal handicapping girl Acacia mentioned on Monday in the "Lightning Round" about getting Pegasus Tickets - so I replied I had them and she reacted back.

Finally, at the conclusion of the racing Saturday I sent Acacia my results for the "Expert" contest and she complimented my success :)

And finally, on Sunday, the most likely winner on the day, Peter D looked awfully good, and as you read above he won.  Acacia tweeted out she's becoming a fan, and I responded which she reacted to :)

Lastly, our "little girl" Jillian who's become an author posted about "what's inside her box?" and I commented, to which she replied.  Merry Christmas!