December 22 - 26
It was a busy holiday week with lots going on, but thanks to the wonder of the Internet I was able to play the races every day there was live racing, including a massive day of racing on Sunday the 26th, a lot of which came while we were traveling home from our trip to Orlando to visit with our grandson for Christmas. The Wednesday card at Gulfstream had ten races on the card, SEVEN of which were on the new Tapeta all-weather surface. I'll be anxious when I run the numbers for the first month of the meet to see what kind of results I'm getting on the new track. It SEEMS to me that I am not winning or losing any more or less than on the dirt or the turf. The first bet of the week was in the second, a two turn event on that artificial surface and I liked Appointing. Two back he'd beaten a notch better, decisively. And then I thought he ran even better in his last when facing much better and running sixth, only four off the winner in a race that was TEN lengths faster. He broke sharply then allowed a price horse to take the lead. Swung outside of him on the turn and drew away to score at better than 2/1 odds. Only had the minimum.
Went winless the rest of the day with only four other races drawing my attention. The Thursday card had another ten races, with a good mix on the three surfaces. But I honestly could only find three races where I felt I had an edge. The BEST of the Day came in the fifth race where we were going a mile on the turf course. I was perplexed to see that neither Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form or Ron Nicoletti from Gulfstream had my top choice, Whimsical Muse on top. The key to the race came in reading the conditions. For this race they were, "....for 3yo and up which have never won three races or have not won a race since June 23...." Knowing this, look at the past performances for my top choice....
Hello, duh! Could the fit be any more snug? AND with 4 wins on the turf, AND with the top rider on board? What were they thinking. I made her the BET of the Day. Tracked the leaders in third and fourth to the far turn, swung up three wide to blow by and ran off as clearly, CLEARLY the best. Every year you get a couple of winners that are like this - a near perfect fit for the dated conditions. Just have to read those every day, every race! Missed on the other two, one of which when the horse broke in the air, spotting the field half a dozen lengths. WOW.
Friday, Christmas Eve Day! The first multi-win of the week. Unfortunately two of the three were with minimum bets. I was engaged and very interested throughout the day because Xpressbet was offering a free $10 bet on the Rainbow Pick-6. The pool was over $550K when the sequence began. I thought I had a good chance for only $9.60 and of course I'd get it all back should it not come in. I hit the first leg and had the top two choices in the next - ran 2nd. Sigh....but I singled in the last two legs and I ran 2nd in the next-to-last leg as well, so I wouldn't have won. The payoff was over $800 with no one taking down the entire pool. I got my first winner in the opener, a two-turn event on the all weather for maiden claimers. Beastfromtheeast pressed the pace into the far turn then took off as much the best. Got my second win in the day's seventh, a claiming event for two-year-olds. Yes I'm The Beast was ridden by model-jockey, hottie Chantal Sutherland for trainer Jorge Delgado - the same connections from the day's first race winner!
The highlight of the day - after seeing the Pick-6 chances evaporate came in the day's finale....but fortunately for me Xpressbet was offering a money back special on the races today as well as the FREE Pick-6 wager1 It was a stakes race to close out the card, and it was the highly unusual distance of TWO MILES on the turf. Noboday ever - or hardly ever - goes that far. So I looked for marathon runners, but then I found the key to the race. Todd Pletcher's Abaan, ridden by top jockey Luis Saez, was the one and ONLY front runner. While he'd never been two miles, coasting on the front end he'd have no problem going the added ground.
Christmas Day saw no racing but we had a great day. Opened gifts in the morning and it was so fun to watch the little man, Oliver enjoy the excitement of Christmas. In the afternoon we all went to see the latest Spiderman movie and it was a GREAT movie. Even more impressive was the fact that the five year old sat there transfixed for over two hours watching his favorite (for now) superhero in action. A wonderful day.
Today was Opening day at Santa Anita and it featured SIX graded stakes. It was also "Road To The Derby Kickoff Day" at the Fair Grounds with six stakes. At Laurel there were another half dozen stakes on their "Christmastide Stakes Day" card; and finally Gulfstream had two stakes events. We played until close to noon then drove home. But before we headed out I made bets for the first half of the big day. Once we got home I watched the replays of the first half of the day's action. I was a disappointing 3rd at 6/5 with a Todd Pletcher maiden at Gulfstream - that's unusual. Won my first stakes even in Laurel's second, the Gin Talking Stakes for two-year-olds. Buy The Best looked like a standout, even in a group of lightly raced juveniles. She'd won two in a row, including a stakes race - here. And her last two figures TOWERED over every other number on the page. She swooped up to collar the lone speed entering the turn and edged clear late. "Here we go I thought," but that was NOT to be the case as I proceeded to lose SEVEN straight (two seconds and two thirds in that mix).
Finally, in the fifth at the Fair Grounds I got back into the winner's circle. It was the Blushing K.D. Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf course. It appeared that Summer In Saratoga was a very legitimate favorite in here. Already a 6x winner on the turf, she'd crossed the wire first in both of her last two trips over the New Orleans grass, including a win in the Tom Benson Memorial last March in her last here. She was exiting a win in the Grade 3 Dowager at Keeneland last time out to run in this listed event. But as the field hit the far turn she was still last of the field for jockey Corey Lanerie. He asked for her run and she began picking off horses, but to get clear sailing she was some 6 or more wide into the lane, losing valuable lengths. She was gaining with every stride but the wire was coming quickly. In the shadow of the wire she got her head in front and edged clear by less than a length. I'd tripled the bet and on the 6/5 price I cashed for nearly $35!
Made it wo in a row with a "prime time" bet in Santa Anita's fourth, a maiden special sprint going six furlongs. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez has spent the mast many winters in South Florida at Gulfstream. But in the last year and change he's had several mounts for Bob Baffert who's based in So Cal. This year, Velazquez had committed to ride on that circuit and this horse, Shaaz had to be one of the many reasons why. The $1.1 Million sales grad was debuting today with some sizzling works. DRF analyst Brad Free noted that his recent work was with an accomplished allowance winner, and he clearly out-worked that one. Free not only put Shaaz on top, but made him his BEST Bet of the Day! Much like the Fair Grounds winner in the previous race I was more than a little concerned when heading to the far turn he was at the back of the field. Uh oh, and adding to that was the fact that his stablemate was loose on the lead. But into the turn he began to accelerate and pick off horses. However, like at the Fair Grounds, so wide into the lane it cost him several of the lengths he'd made up and it appeared the "other Baffert" had something left. It was three strides to two Shaaz was gaining, but it was slowly and would not be in time until at the 16th pole he found another gear and burst by to be up in time! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Three out of four, and we're heading into another stakes at Laurel that I felt pretty comfortable about, the Robert T. Manfuso Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth. As I said in my analysis, I always look for who the favorite is and are they vulnerable. If not, are they a good bet. Well in this case, Cordmaker was a legitimate favorite I thought. He'd won two of his last three and three of his last six with the only off-the-board try in a graded event. Even more "OH" was the fact that of the 87 running lines on the page, not a single one - none - would beat either of his last two Beyers. He rode the rail saving ground in third until they spun out of the far turn. Shifted three wide and accelerated to the front and edged clear as a popular winner. Again a 6/5 number and again cashed for over $30.
Missed at Gulfstream with a minimum play before the Richard Scherer Memorial at the Fair Grounds came up. I had caught up to live racing and was now watching live feeds as they loaded into the gate for this five and a half furlong turf sprint. Just Might was the play here and as I noted, you COULD use a number of angles to try and beat him. On the upside, in his last six races....toss the graded try two back, and what you had were FIVE STRAIGHT WINS in listed stakes like this. Now to be fair, and this COULD be one of those "play against" angles, the last three were all on the main track. BUT his numbers on the turf and the dirt didn't seem to be any different, and I really liked the fact that he'd gone wire to wire in his last, the Thanksgiving Day Classic on Opening Day on a drack labeled as favoring closers! Not only wired the field, but won "geared down" according to the comment line. Right to the front, dueled...put that rival away, was clear in the lane and when the field got within a couple of lengths in mid-stretch he opened up again to win without any threat.
No sooner had the Fair Grounds gone official than they were loading into the gate for the Gulfstream feature, the Tropical Park Derby. No surprise that I liked Todd Pletcher's Never Surprised. And as an added bonus here, jockey Luis Saez had a white-hot hand today as he was looking for his FIFTH win on the program, wow. Really, REALLY hard to look past this one and the fact that he was NOT less than even money was amazing to me. Here's why.....his overall record was 6/3-3-0 and his last two wins had come in listed events like this. ALL THREE losses were best-of-the-rest second place finishes in GRADED stakes, oh. On top of this he was the LONE SPEED.....and drawn inside. OH MY. Need more, well, the reason he was my BEST of the Day at GP was that of the 137 races on the page for his rivals, none of them...ZERO, beat either of his last two. How does this Pletcher colt leave the gate at odds of 1-2? Right to the front, took some early pressure and the early pace seemed fast, but as they were 2/3 down the backstretch he effortlessly widened the margin. Continued to draw off on the turn and when asked in the lane he distanced the field by nearly a pole. WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!
My seventh winner on the day and now the day was more like I expected. Three disappointing efforts at less than even money led me to the final play of the day. At Santa Anita there were six graded stakes on the card. BUT this week had seen a deluge of rain and all the races were off the grass so I lost several what I thought were good bets. The final race on my sheet, the Grade 1 Malibu was the national feature and had one of the most intriguing three-year-olds in the country. Check out the past performances....
Those Beyer figures - oh my! So here was the "problem" with Flightline. First, he'd coasted home in both those scintillating wins, so what would happen if he faced a REAL challenge? That second win had been an ENTRY level allowance, today he was in a Grade 1. AND the second choice in my analysis was a 3yo - like him - who'd just run 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint after WINNING the Grade 1 Bing Crosby and Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship in his previous two starts. Compare my analysis to that of handicapper & track announcer Vic Stauffer - which when I read it made me give pause....
But I stuck with my opinion. I was surprised, and agreed with all the analysts on the TVG broadcast who were saying THEY were surprised at how short a price Flightline was in the betting. But in MY opinion, I thought he was going to run huge today. Immediately upon the gates opening, trouble was brewing as he broke slowly. Jockey Flavian Prat sent him up between rivals and got to the front before they'd gone a quarter of a mile. Let me tell you - when a front runner does NOT get immediately to the front and has to use extra energy early to get that spot, almost always they pay for it in the lane. ONLY when they can slow the pace down do they often keep going. But not today. He had pressure through a swift opening quarter in :22 flat and while he was clear into the turn, the half mile split was a wicked :44.2. And, did I mention he was going SEVEN furlongs today? This can't be good. But then, the "OH MY....WOW" performance of the weekend - he opened up, effortlessly! And while that two time graded stakes winner was being asked for his best, Flightline was opening up by nearly a dozen without ever being asked. YOWZA! The connections following the race were excited about stretching him out to classic distances. We may have the next big superstar here!
Check out the number on this win - OH MY....squared.
For the day I cashed on eight winners, a good 33% - especially considering the way the day started. Didn't make money since NONE of them were big payoffs, but on the day I had not one but THREE prime-time plays and cashed on all of them. Next week is New Year's Day on Saturday, but there WILL be live racing with multiple stakes events at Gulfstream, and I'll be there!
Christmas Week Racing Highlights
Social Media - this week I had a few contacts online.....
It was our good friend Mishele's birthday and we exchanged messages....
And it was my good buddy Jeff Nelson's adorable daughter Chloe's birthday as well....
And among the many Christmas wishes exchanged online two were to Gulfstream handicapper Acacia Courtney and CBS-4 Anchor Karli Barnett.