Week 4: December 23 - 27
It was the final full week of racing at Gulfstream Park and it was a shortened four day racing week due to the Christmas Holiday on Friday. But no matter to me about having to take a day off after having two really, REALLY good days. Here's how the week played out as we wind down through the first month of the Championship Meeting.....
As I handicapped the Wednesday card on Tuesday morning I just didn't have that "feel" of confidence. I made my picks when I felt I had an edge, but as I told Kim, so much of handicapping is esoteric...you just "know" or you just "don't know" sometimes. And my general feeling was that while the picks seemed solid, I just didn't feel all that confident. To the point that before publishing them I went back through them and actually withdrew the bet from the analysis of one race. So as the horses went into the gate for the opener today I did not have high expectations....but hey, you never know! In the opener I felt "better" about the selection than on most, generally speaking. Why? It was a maiden 2yo event and my pick came from the Todd Pletcher barn. Oh. AND Irad Ortiz was up. OH. So what's the problem you ask with Coworth Park? She'd only been out twice, both times in NYRA MSW events and she'd been beaten a combined twenty-three and change lengths. That's not good. And after just two tries, Pletcher PLUNGES her into this $25K spot? More red flags. Still.....Pletcher, Ortiz, maiden 2yo at Gulfstream. It's a bet. Ortiz rode the rail to the far turn in mid-pack. Eased to the outside, got into the clear and accelerated five-wide into the lane. Inhaled the field and won going away as the 2/1 favorite! THAT'S why you take Todd Pletcher even when in doubt, because SOMETIMES you get paid and people shake their head (sometimes even me!).
Missed in the next two with minimum plays that both ran third. In the sixth all the public handicappers were all over the morning line favorite, Hans Sense who had been vanned off in his last at Saratoga. Uh oh. But to me it was less about worrying about that one's condition than the fact that jockey Edgard Zayas looked to be loose on a lonely lead with Brasstown. In four one-turn mile events like this showing in his past performances he'd gone :45 and change through the opening half mile on the lead. No one would be within half a dozen lengths of him if that were the case today. My final comment, "Right to the front and holds on." Brasstown broke sharply and was clear by three open lengths as they hit the far turn and the opening half mile was posted in :45.2 seconds. Announcer Pete called that he'd gone awfully fast, but the problem for the rest of the field was they had way to much work to do. He was kept at the task and won by six in the end. Paid $5.20 as the post time favorite (guess a lot of handicappers read MY analysis!).
I had tripled the bet so I cashed for almost $40 on my second winner of the day. Missed with a Pletcher runner at 5/1 when a dismal 8th and then in the featured ninth everyone was on board with Pletcher's Shamrocket. Again with Irad up. Ron Nicoletti made this guy his BEST Bet. The issues were obvious - first, in nine starts he had but a single win while hitting the board in eight straight. Just didn't want to win you'd wonder? Conversely, today was his FIRST START under Pletcher's care and he exited a troubled third in a KEY STAKES event at Kentucky Downs. Mr. Todd is exceptional here at Gulfstream with layoff runners AND with first-time acquisitions. Shamrocket was away last, and the pace was average at best (:25-:49-1:13). Cruised into contention on the turn, was five wide into the stretch. Irad implored for more and the horse accelerated in the final 16th to get clear for the win. In spite of Shamrocket being on "everybody's" ticket AND being public handicapper Nicoletti's BEST (which you could not only read online but he TOLD everyone in the pre-race broadcast), STILL the winner paid $4.40 and with my triple investment I cashed for well over $30.
Considering I was less than confident going into the day, I finished with over 40% winners, and a profit of nearly $30. That called for a glass of wine and a photo-op (see above) ..... which I posted on FaceBook to boast about the "free Christmas money" I had offered on my web page. :) HO HO HO!
WOW....and I thought yesterday was good......little did I know what was about to happen as I really got an "early Christmas present" from my handicapping today. Have to admit that I was surprised in the opener when Todd Pletcher's Gunman came running on the turf in a maiden claimer - just like yesterday - but could not catch the front runner, second at 8/5. But that turned out to be the last miss of the day! In the second Irad Ortiz was riding Midtown Rose for Saffie Joseph and those two win at a huge 44% clip. 'Rose was dropping out of a Claiming Crown turf stakes to this straight claiming dirt sprint - two more good angles. And to seal the deal, in her pp's the ONLY time she'd ever run for a tag in was for twice today's price. Dueled from the gate to the final 50 yards, was actually briefly headed, then edged clear. And in spite of all the "obvious" angles, Midtown Rose went off at better than 5/2!
I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for nearly $40. Passed on the next three and that brought us to the sixth. This was a maiden claiming six furlong sprint for two-year-olds. Of the eleven entered, SIX were first time starters. Yikes, talk about "who knows!" BUT....instead of just turning the page, which years ago I did automatically with 2yo maiden events.....if you looked closely you could find a legitimate winner, I thought. These half-dozen debut runners - their barns were NOT very good with such as reflected in their first-time-starter win percents: 0%, 3%, 5%, 6%, and an "ok" 10%. I'm not afraid of any of those numbers. The likely post-time favorite, I thought would be Infatuating. Her last two Beyer figures were a 46 and a 49 - you won't win any Breeders' Cup Championships with those numbers, BUT in this field - and they pay the same for a winning ticket in a $25K maiden 2yo claiming event as they do in a $2 Million Grade 1 race - she looked like a champion. The TOP BEYER for the others who had run: 19, 0, 24, 37, and 29. Compare Infatuating's big Beyer advantage and with the low win chances of the firsters, you can see why I put her on top. Now add in that she was dropping from three straight MSW tries at Parx to this first-time tag. Moves into the Saffie Joseph barn, uh oh, AND adds blinkers - both 29% win angle karma events. Jockey Edgard Zayas tracked the leaders four-wide to about mid-turn, kicked clear and ran away by nearly half a dozen as MUCH the best. Even better than the fact I had bet her was that the crowd let her go off at better than 2/1 as she paid $6.40 for a $2 bet.
Now, you'll note in the photo above there are TWO $10 WIN tickets....why's that you ask? This morning I had an eye doctor appointment at 11 am. So before I left I made my early bets. I got home in time for Race 4 (remember, no bets in races 3-4-5). So as the horses left the paddock for the Infatuating race I made my bet. At the end of the day I was checking my totals and somehow according to Xpressbet I had more winners than I thought I had. Looked carefully at my betting statement - oh my. Before leaving for the doctor, I'd INCLUDED my $10 bet on Infatuating. Having forgot this, I made ANOTHER $10 bet pre-race. So now my total bet resulted in a "prime time" play and I was rewarded with nearly $65! OH MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ME!!!!!! Only on a day like today can I tell the next story with a smile on my face. In Race 7, a one-mile turf starter allowance, it looked to me like Jabuticaba was "way too much pony" for these gals under Irad Ortiz. Right to the front and hung on to win at a big 2/1 with my triple investment aboard. OH MY - happy holidays! But wait..... "Ladies and Gentlemen, the rider of the unofficial 2nd place finisher has lodged a claim of foul against the unofficial winner.....hold all tickets." You have to be kidding me - Jabuticaba was clear from the get go and was never really challenged. As I watched the replay, she did drift out in mid-stretch, but clearly CLEARLY the runner-up was a full length behind her and while she had to slightly alter course, it certainly didn't cost her a placing. The announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen.....after reviewing the replay, the stewards have disqualified the unofficial winner Jabuticaba and placed her second for interference through the stretch...." BOOOOOO - bah, humbug!
Pass the eighth, and a good thing because I was NOT happy with the ruling of the stewards. As much as I liked Jabuticaba in the 7th I liked Richies Great Girl even more in the featured 9th. This was an entry level turf sprint and trainer Larry Rivelli is just deadly when he ships in here. Richie had only been on the grass twice and both times was very sharp. She ran HERE last winter off a layoff, like today, with Irad Ortiz, like today and was a just-miss second. She was away slowly and behind horses. Through the turn she was crying for running room, but was boxed in. Finally inside the final 200 yards she got out, SURGED......PHOTO FINISH!
I wasn't sure, but I thought I'd won....and it was official! As the tepid 9/5 favorite she paid $5.80 and I'd tripled the bet on my third WINNING winner, cashing for over $40. Before the final race I told Kim I would be wanting another wine-toasting photo regardless of what happened here as I'd already cashed out for a big profit.....AND this was before I knew I'd doubled the $10 bet on Infatuating :) In the finale I thought Dealer's Girl was a very real UPSET SPECIAL. Listed at 8/1 in the program I thought she had more than an upset chance to win here. Dealer's Girl had last been seen on December 3rd when THAT day I thought she'd be part of an embattled pace duel at this five furlong turf sprint distance that would set the table for my top choice Awsum Roar. Exactly as I'd anticipated she dueled through insane fractions of :20.4 and :43.3 and was inhaled when 'Roar went last to first at a big 6/1 price. TODAY I didn't think there was anyone who'd run that fast. AND, last time out she dueled and tired off a layoff. Second time out, no pressure, drawn on the rail AND top rider Luis Saez, who's an excellent front end jockey.....LONG GONE I thought. She was being pounded at the windows and was between 2/1 and 5/2 as they loaded into the gate. Well, it's been a good day and to cash in for another winner, I was just happy if I had a fourth winner. RIGHT to the front, no one within multiple lengths as she blazed through a :21 flat opening quarter. While sizzling, that was about a length slower than last time, and that wasn't lost on me. She tired late but no one was catching her. And as the horses eased through the first turn past the finish line the final post-time odds came on the screen...... OH MY, she'd floated up to 7/2 and paid a whopping $9!
UPSET SPECIAL indeed - cashed for $45 and I THOUGHT I'd finished 4-for-6 with a profit of over $80. That's when I saw that according to Xpressbet I was 5-for-7 and I'd made a REAL profit of over $100!
It's a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS To Me!!
Saturday December 26: Tropical Park Derby Day
Today was a B-I-G day of racing as it was the traditional "day after Christmas, Opening Day at Santa Anita" day; I considered just playing Gulfstream and Santa Anita but decided to look around the country and see what has happening at the other tracks. Much to my surprise Laurel was having a big day also with eight big stakes events on their "Christmastide Stakes Day" card. And the Fair Grounds had multiple stakes on their card. So I tossed in Tampa Bay and played five tracks on the day. As it turned out I would have been much better off ignoring Santa Anita, but what are you going to do? You can't win them all :) The opener at Gulfstream seemed pretty obvious. How could you ignore the fact that trainer Danny Gargan wins with a big 50% of his first-off-the-claim runners? And that's from a big 30+ horse sample. Add in that Luis Saez was riding - a 43% winning tandem and that the horse, What's The Move was dropping from a early speed / class drop angle out of a $40K spot to this $30K maiden event today? The pace was really slow but Saez had him in hand near the back approaching the far turn. Asked for run he swept up around the field, was five wide into the lane and was just, JUST up in time. Well measured ride by Saez. I had tripled the bet so I cashed for well over $30 on the first pick of the day.
Came right back in the first at Tampa with the first of two wins there on the day. Flaming Indy was doing something I really don't like to bet, coming back at the same $8K non-winners of 2-lifetime level off a loss. BUT, after running in a $20K 2L at PID she'd dueled through insane fractions here of :21 and :44 and change. Anything like that and she was long gone. She stalked in second to the turn, ran by without being asked and cruised home as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite. Next up was the first of the multiple stakes at Laurel, this was the seven furlong Heft Stakes for two-year-olds. As I noted in my analysis, these were lightly raced juveniles and nearly all were stretching to seven furlongs for the first time, so be careful. BUT, keeping that in mind it seemed very unlikely that No Cents would not deliver as the short-priced favorite. His lone loss in four starts came in his debut when he was last away AND steadied, yet was still a best-of-the-rest 2nd. He'd rattled off three in a row including the JF Lewis her last time. And if he repeated that 81 Beyer he would win by a pole. AND he was not a "need to lead" speedster. He was away last, again, but glided up three-wide on the turn, was asked and took over. There was a duel through the lane and he shifted in at about the 16th pole but was a gutsy winner, no doubt about it. Shortly after the finish the OBJECTION and then INQUIRY lights came on. I don't know that I've EVER seen an inquiry take that long to decide. They looked and looked at the replays, then stopped; the replays started again and you had to think they were trying to decide where to place No Cents. By this time the guys on TVG had chimed in and they both were certain he was coming down. Then the replays started again. A good ten minutes went by before the announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen......after reviewing the replays the stewards have decided NOT to allow the claim of foul, the race now stands official!" Oh happy day! I had tripled the bet on the colt and collected over $25 for my third win in a row :)
The next event on my selection sheet was the next at Laurel, the Gin Talking Stakes for 2yo fillies going seven furlongs. On paper the early double looked to be odds-on with odds-on. But with the long stewards' review after the first, it just goes to show nothing is certain in this great game. But, Street Lute looked every bit the part of a short-priced winner. She was a neck away from being five-for-five and that included FOUR stakes wins. I had her last time when she was most impressive. I didn't go quite as deep on the wager with her because while she clearly looked best, three of her six rivals had run fast enough on the Beyer scale to compete and/or beat her. She went right to the front, was running easily on the lead turning for home and we got the proverbial jockey look back - we're home free I thought. But at about the furlong pole it was obvious that one of the late-running fillies was not about to just hand over the top prize. Street Lute's rider saw the threat, asked for run and as they hit the wire it was desperately close.....I truly couldn't tell and would not have been surprised with the result had it gone either way:
WOW - what an eventful start to the day in Maryland, but fortunately I can tell the story of BOTH races with a smile on my face since I won them both....and now I'm four-for-four to begin the day. I'm having a very good week. The third at Gulfstream saw me run a fading fifth as the 9/5 favorite. Then came the third at Tampa. Distorted Limits had the same kind of look as Flaming Indy in the opener here in Oldsmar. Well deserving of the short price, but I was wary of the fact that jockey Scott Speith - normally a good journeyman rider - was off to an 0-for-33 start to the meet, yikes. The favorite was midpack to the turn, driving to get to the longshot leader about a furlong out. Held on but wait, an OBJECTION. When Distotred Limits came inside on the turn he "cut off" the third place finisher. MUCH shorter review, and again no change :) Missed a GP when a dismal 8th at 9/5 then at Tampa when I was in tight in the stretch, got through but just too late. Second to a runner who had a clean trip on the outside. The fourth at Laurel was next, the Howard County Stakes going two turns, a mile and a sixteenth for juveniles. The fact that youngsters were going long was a big question for all the runners. Bug it looked to me like Shackqueenking would take this field coast to coast. And it was a plus he'd wired his maiden foes AT THIS TRIP. Instead he sat third to the far turn, cruised up under a good hold then accelerated to the lead. But the front runner was stubborn. Finally in deep stretch he began to edge clear, but just as quickly the former front-runner came back, but a head in front with fifty yards to go, but my pick would not quit and got the very narrow head-bobbing win.
Only had the minimum, but the nice $6.40 payoff allowed me to cash for more than $15. Second best at even money at the Fair Grounds and then loomed boldly on the turn in the Santa Anita opener before fading to fourth at 2/1. The fifth at Gulfstream illustrated excellent judgement and handicapping on my part. This was an exceptionally deep and difficult seven furlong test for maiden special two-year-olds. When you have a tough field like this that just might hold several future stakes winners, here at GP in the winter you're relatively safe to go with the Todd Pletcher runner. But the problem was there were two of them. I liked the longer priced one Eamonn. But in reading through all the analysis from the public handicappers they all were very high on the shorter priced colt, Amount. I went back and forth and finally decided I liked who I liked and I was going to get a fair price. BUT, I noted in my pick - and with a large asterisk to remind myself when making the bet - that IF there was a significant amount of money on the latter Pletcher colt I reserved the right to change the bet. Not only was Amount well bet, but what really made me change my mind in the end was that Eamonn was cold on the board in spite of having go-to rider Luis Saez. I made the bet on Amount. Was off slowly but when asked on the turf by jockey Irad Ortiz he moved up willingly, and powered by with a flair. He ran away through the final furlong in a good-looking debut.
Smart move on my part....the winner paid 8/5 and I cashed for almost $30! WELL PLAYED!!! Lost for the first time at Laurel in the Willa On The Move Stakes when 4th at 3/1. The sixth at Laurel saw my horse scratch out and then I thought I had a nice priced Todd Pletcher winner when Dynamic One swooped to the front turning for home with the short run to the finish at 5/1. The favorite had been away last and was rallying, but too late I thought. Ran me down in the shadow of the wire....sigh. THe seventh at Laurel was the Native Dancer Stakes and Harpers First Ride was my BET of the Day there. He was being hammered at the windows so I checked all the multi-race and re-thought the bet....decided to up the bet from a prime-time $20 win bet to a big-time $30. Tracked the 45/1 leader into the turn, challenged on the turn, came away with the lead but was immediately collared by the second choice who put his head in front. Uh oh. But the rider shook the reins, 'Harper accelerated and drew off very impressively - worthy of the BIG BET. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
Funny, he was 4/5 going into the gate.....3/5 going down the backstretch, but was 1/5 when they hit the far turn. Sigh.....as I have often said, I just pick who I think is going to win, I can't control how the crowd bets them. Over the next ninety minutes I won only one of seven picks and three of the losses came with prime-time bets. Ended up costing me the profit on a third straight day this week. At the Fair Grounds I made Speak To Me the prime time play in a maiden event and he was 4/5. But he was away last and rallied to be just third. Missed in the first of the Santa Anita stakes in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile when I took a shot AGAINST the favorite - third, while the favorite was the best. At Tampa my "best bet" was - like at the Fair Grounds - in a maiden race. It was a Chad Brown turf runner. Swooped up four-wide, looked like a clear winner but could not get by late, 2nd at 4/5. And in the Grade 2 San Antonio 1-2 favorite Mucho Gusto - last year's Pegasus World Cup champion moved to the front under John Velazquez but was inhaled by three others including the longshot winner under Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith. But I still felt very good about the day during this span because the one bright spot came in Gulfstream's featured Tropical Park Derby where Colonel Liam was my BEST BET of the Day. Watching the "Early Show" with Jason Blewitt and hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney I noted that Acacia made Colonel Liam her SINGLE on her Rainbow Pick-6 ticket. And then after the fifth when Todd Pletcher's Amount won the race impressively he was interviewed in the walking ring by Acacia and she asked about Colonel Liam. His reply raised my eyebrows as he said, "He's been training super and we have our fingers crossed for the Pegasus World Cup Turf." Wait, what? Pletcher already has the winner of the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale, Largent pointing there and then last week he said that if graded stakes winner Social Paranoia came back right - and he did as my BEST BET - HE would be pointed for the Pegasus. Now this one? He must be really high on Colonel Liam. Didn't take much consideration to up the bet, like on Harpers First Ride, from a prime-time play to a BIG time play. I give myself credit because this 3yo colt had only been out four times. Was 2nd and 3rd in his first two starts, both on dirt. Then was entered in an ALLOWANCE event at Saratoga for his first turf try. Went off at 8/1 and won going away with a big 100 Beyer. So impressed were the connections that they brought him back in the $500K Saratoga Derby. He closed strongly to be beaten just 3/4 of a length in fourth. The top two were already graded winners and both came right back to win graded stakes in their next start. Still, he had not been out since that August try and this was only his third try on turf. He was patiently handled by jockey Irad Ortiz approaching the far turn. Accelerated four wide to circle the field and when he straightened out he blew by the field and won by widening lengths through the final furlong. VERY impressive.
Sunday December 27
I had six selections on the day and after the day's conclusion yesterday my total win count since I began keeping records stood at 8,994. A win in EVERY race, unlikely but MAYBE, would get me to the 9,000 plateau. In the opener, for the third time in this four-day racing week, it was a maiden claiming event on the turf with a Todd Pletcher runner. My questions here were (a) why was Edgard Zayas riding and not Irad Ortiz or Luis Saez and (b) which Seize The Hay would we get today? In his last five races he'd earned Beyers in the low 70's that were ALL above the par for this class level and would beat the rest of the field by daylight. But two back he earned a 64 without any apparent excuse. Hmmm. As for Zayas, he's an excellent rider and often rides for Pletcher....just not in the prime-time winter dates very often. But to be fair, he was on him last time up when a best-of-the-rest 2nd at GPW when breaking from post 11 of 11 and was off slowly. Today he was patiently handled at the back through a hot pace. Swept up five-wide on the turn to reach contention. Was fanned seven wide into the stretch, but still Zayas was hand riding him. Blew by and won going away for fun.
Even money was like stealing in retrospect. Passed four in a row. In the sixth I got the ideal trip at 9/2 but was just not good enough - fourth. Will have to wait until next week for number nine-thousand. Passed the seventh - top choice won, sigh.... in the 8th Chad Brown's Princess Caroline looked, on paper like a standout. 8th at 5/2 when empty on the turn. I thought I had my "day-maker" in the 9th when another Larry Rivelli runner was sent off at 5/1. Vincent William went right to the front in a 5 1/2 furlong dirt sprint. Led while being pressured throughout; edged clear in mid-stretch then just failed to last, third. THAT would have been a nice pay day. But let's not get greedy, it's been a good week I thought. In the featured 10th Todd Pletcher's Mo Ready looked like a "free bingo square" in the multi race wagers. After running a close third in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last summer he's the obvious class in this entry level allowance. Perfect rail trip under Saez to the far turn, tipped into the clear and blew by three longshots. Clear into the lane and driving to the wire a decisive winner.
Gulfstream Park Week 4 Highlights
With the end of the week, this brought the first month to an end - we'll count the last two December cards to kick off Week 5 next week as part of January. And with the end of the month I not only wanted to see how I had been doing, but I've been tracking the daily selections for Gulfstream handicapping guru Ron Nicoletti and the daily picks from the Daily Racing Form. I knew I'd had a good month, but I was very pleasantly surprised to see that I was the CLEAR leader in handicapping regardless of what number you wanted to us.....well done!
Christmas Wishes
I was disappointed yet again with the small number of people who sent actual Christmas cards this year. The small number last year we received back left me to cut back on the number I sent this year. And I think it will dwindle again next year. Via social media we had many holiday wishes. On our "Merry Christmas" card on Facebook we received 33 replies (likes or comments) and interestingly - well not really because it's always been this way - only five of them came from other guys. The rest were all from my gal-pals. Of those I was most especially happy to hear from my most favorite group of girls.....
