March 25 - 29: The End of the Championship Meet
Hard to believe it's the end of the winter racing season, seems like we were just getting started and I'd just returned from our fabulous trip along the Douro River. But, here we are some 80+ racing days later and so, SO much has happened and changed on the racing scene as well as the national and international scene with the global pandemic of the coronavirus, covid-19. I was so very excited to begin going to the races, LIVE, with the winter season because from last year's Florida Derby Day to Opening Day this winter I was only at Gulfstream three times and one of those was to watch a single race live after having lunch at our favorite restaurant, the Yard House. And again, I would say I'm a little disappointed that I didn't go out more often during the week. But I am happy with the way I went nearly every Saturday and made that racing day a priority to my winter life...even giving up several hockey nights so I could enjoy the full day at the races. The final week - it was a GREAT week to say the least! While Florida Derby Day was "OK," the rest of the week saw my handicapping hitting on all cylinders. Here's how the week played out......
The week opened with my selection sheet showing eight picks on the ten race card. Again, we continue to race sans-fans. Even the owners cannot be at the track, just the essential personnel. As I set out to handicap each day I took my daily banners and modified them to include a Florida Derby photo from the past, today was one of the first "big" gathering of friends & family in 2011. Missed in the opening two races, particularly disappointed in the second when the Todd Pletcher drop-down maiden did not produce. In the third my pick was a horse that on the surface you'd never seriously consider wagering on. And to be honest, part of my handicapping is not only picking the winner but when I feel I have a betting edge it's also how much to wager. I think I'd do better if I let my handicapping angles play a bigger role than the connections and the horse's past performances. And this was a prime example of that. Cory Gal was going first off the claim for trainer Gustavo Delgado who wins with 42% of those. He was moving her from a turf sprint to a dirt sprint and stretching her out a full furlong....and that was a 29% angle. Those facts should have led to a double investment - especially because she looked like the LONE speed. But I scaled the bet back because for her old connections she was a "pop and stop" kind of filly building a 17/1-5-2 record. Ouch. But she went right to the front and was never, ever threatened as the 3/2 favorite.
Missed in the fifth and sixth - and while I can't say with certainty I'd have won the sixth, the fact that my filly hopped in the air and spotted the field a half dozen lengths didn't help. In the 7th the key to my selection was the fact that one of the fundamentals I learned in my "undergraduate" studies of handicapping is that each race is unique in and of itself, even when - like this one - several of the same runners are entered against each other again. Last time they met Verdict Is In was a narrow loser to Keepsakekitten. Off that effort 'Verdict moved up in class and ran respectfully. Down in class with the hot riding Paco Lopez today. BUT while she was making that move Keepsakekitten went to Tampa and beat $25K starter company and now is dropped aggressively by owner/trainer Frank Calabree/Saffie Joseph who have a habit of winning with those kind. Add in that three back the two met and 'Kitten was half a dozen clear. Easy, peasy pick..... Jockey Luis Saez sat near the back, asked for run on the turn, boxed in Verdict Is In entering the stretch and powered by to score by daylight.
But the BEST story of the day was in the eighth. Like several of today's races this was largely a redraw of a race from last Friday's cancelled card. That day and today my top choice in what appeared to be an evenly matched field was the returning Larry Rivelli charge, The Tabulator. This former stakes runner was 3-for-4 at this six furlong distance but what really caught my eye (after I read it in Ron Nicoletti's analysis last week) is that the barn is a remarkable 62% - MY NUMBER - with runners returning from a long break. How could I NOT bet that? Broke a step slow but quickly assumed command. Looked on the turn like the dueling front runner might have been softened up for a late runner, but then the big 62% angle became apparent as The Tabulator opened up with another gear and ran away like nobody's business. The more-than-healthy $8 payoff netted me a big $40 return. NICE.
My angle pick scratched out of the ninth - felt really good about that one - and so we were on to the finale, a maiden claimer for 3yo and yes, there was a Todd Pletcher entry. Mandate was making his first start for a tag and I'd discovered an interesting statistic on the Gulfstream Park Leader board. While Pletcher leads the standings and is winning at a big 23% overall, when he sends out the betting favorite, he's a 47% winner. WOW. Mandate left the gate as the 4/5 betting choice and sat third to the far turn. Moved up to duel with the leader to the furlong marker and then drew off like a Pletcher favorite should. Closed the day with my fourth win in eight selections and a solid profit.
Thursday March 26
Today's banner photo is from the 2010 Florida Derby when Uncle Dave was in from Kentucky to join us for an afternoon of racing. Coming off the big start to the week I was curious if the numbers would "even out" today. Seemed that way when I lost the first two races. Seemed pretty "obvious" - if there IS such a thing in handicapping - that Ohanzee would win the third. This was a maiden claiming turf sprint for three-year-olds. Her last was a one-mile try, toss that as she didn't like going that far. Prior to that two thirds and a second in turf sprints. The two show finishes were against MSW rivals and the 2nd came against $40K runners. Today she was in in for just $25K with the hot riding Paco Lopez on board for trainer Jane Cibelli - a barn he often scores for. Third into the far turn, moved to challenge and took over turning for home. If you look at the chart it looks like the closers were getting to her but watching the race live, once they were within 200 yards of the wire Paco just hand rode her home. Win #1 for the day!
In the fifth it was a rematch between two fillies that faced off last time and the DRF's Marty McGee made the filly who'd LOST that match-up his BEST of the Day. His comments and the trouble line indicated she'd had an issue at the start so I pulled up the replay. The trouble line comment, "...took up, rallied wide..." is far, FAR from an accurate portrayal of the running of the race from Sister O'Toole's perspective. She was shut off so badly that jockey Javier Castellano nearly came out of the saddle as she lost well over half a dozen lengths. Then when she came running some six wide she finished with 1 3/4 length of the wire winner. Her repeat rival had a smooth trip and backed up through the lane, which her pp's showed she'd done in all five starts. The bet became all the easier when that one scratched out today. Sister O'Toole sat comfortably just off the pace after a clean break today then accelerated to the front and held off all the oppositions to score as the even money favorite with my triple investment on board.......TWO wins.
It doesn't get much easier than the winner in the 7th, a starter optional claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth using the first finish line. Lightly raced six-year-old Blue Buff. Two back he'd won at six furlongs when returning to the main track. Stretched to a one-turn mile and beat several in today's field with ease. As a son of Unbridled's Song the added ground and two turns didn't seem to be an obstacle. Fourth to the turn then inhaled the field and quickly was more than a half dozen in front into the short stretch. Geared down the final margin was "only" a decisive four lengths. Doubled the bet on the kind of even money favorite you like to have your money on.
I lost the eighth but THE STORY of the day came in the featured ninth. I made Todd Pletcher's Soldado the BET of the Day. He'd won here to break his maiden last year in a sprint. Was a good third in a one-turn mile event, then shipped to Oaklawn and ran 4th in an allowance around two turns. In all his losses he'd seen runners who went on to stakes and/or graded stakes success. So when he came back here in an allowance sprint he was the bet. Was pressured to the stretch then drew off. I read the connections were thinking that a win in this test would propel him into the sprint stakes picture on the national scene with some big races in mind. As is so often the case, the way I saw the race, him breaking on top and wiring the field, did NOT play out. He was outsprinted early and through the turn you could see him tossing his head - and announcer Pete Aiello called the same - indicating he did NOT like being behind horses and eating dirt. Looked for a seam got one and came on to challenge the new leader. The jockey of that one cleverly began edging closer and closer to the rail in an effort to intimidate Soldado but he and jockey Luis Saez would not be deterred and courageously squeezed through to be up on the wire in a photo finish!
ANOTHER 4-for-8 day. Man, I'm having a very good week for sure.
Friday March 27
So now, after back-to-back 50% winning days I really had to wonder what kind of day today would bring. I used for the banner the photo of Kim and I from the Florida Derby two years ago when I picked SEVEN winners on the card including the Derby winner, Audible. It's easy to say afterwards, but I SHOULD have known. Todd Pletcher wins with so many of his 3yo, and while his numbers haven't been as great this year STILL "the rule" is to always go with the Pletcher 3yo. But on some rare occasions I find a horse that I'm willing to take the risk on bypassing the price available on the Pletcher runner. In the opener EVERYONE knew Counterstrike was the one to beat and was sent off at 3/5. 8th while the Pletcher colt won at 5/1. Wow. But I came back to win the second with Miz Chaplain. She'd been a runaway winner in a maiden claimer at GPW and was claimed by Saffie Joseph. He was unbeatable with that move until the calendar turned to March and now he's just "very good with" those. He'd given the filly three long months to bounce back and had seen her work bullets in the morning. Sent right to the front she was the easiest kind of winner in a 3yo claiming event sprinting six furlongs.
The third was another six furlong maiden claimer for sophomores. All of the ones with experience were far from trust worthy. So it would have been a good spot for a debut runner under any circumstances. But then you looked at the trainer stats for Tapping. Trainer Gustavo Delgado was a 42% winner with all his first time starters. And when in for a tag like this, it was an even better 44%. On top of that he had Emisael Jaramillo, the "Minister of Speed" to ride which told me they were going to the front. The morning line/program maker had her pegged at 6/1. Figured we'd get maybe 4/1, but that was a great price. Right to the front and won in hand. But the best part - couldn't believe it - she left the gate at better than 8/1. Paid $19.60 and I cashed for almost $50. Made up for missing the Pletcher winner, mostly.
Came right back in the fourth with First Wave in a MSW turf sprint. She'd debuted with a big 80 Beyer in a MSW turf sprint then went two turns, toss, then went on the dirt, toss. The DRF's Mike Welsch is most effective - in my opinion - when he talks about/analyzes morning works. He noted she'd been "working well" and in company with an older, multiple stakes winner. Sealed the deal for me. Pressed the pace to the turn, took over, opened up. But then had to hang on for the win. THREE IN A ROW!
The only "bad news" is that all three of these were minimum plays. Have to give myself some credit because after missing on two picks the last selection of the day was a turf event going nine furlongs in a second level allowance. The Chad Brown runner fit all the criteria that has made him deadly on the grass. BUT, Silver Kitten looked like the lone speed and I mean the LONE speed. Right to the front handled beautifully by Luis Saez. And even when they turned for home he didn't ask for anything. But when the Brown runner began to accelerate he then put the petal to the metal and shot to the wire to score. Another four-win day!
As the day broke I refused to let the current situation keep me from sporting my Florida Derby outfit and especially my cork hat that I purchased in Portugal last November. And later in the day Kim put on her cork hat from Portugal. The day as a whole went as I expected. First, after scoring TWELVE times during the first three days I knew it would be difficult to win at that kind of clip under any circumstances. But second, when I looked at the Derby Day card, the fourteen races were really difficult. Even the one with the "that's so obvious" favorite I thought he was vulnerable. And while I was disappointed that our oldest son Jeff had to cancel his flight and visit to be here for the very first time on Florida Derby Day, we did Face Time a lot during the day so it was kind of like he was here.
The day started off with a big longshot and my pick, who went favored didn't fire. And in the second my horse who was the second choice also didn't fire. But in the third Todd Pletcher's Largent lived up to my expectations as one of the more likely winners on the card. He'd won on the turf last winter at first asking then was just beaten on the Preakness undercard. Came back this winter to score in first level allowance and then last time out he was a just miss second, beaten a head. What was significant was that on the turf that day, closers ruled the day and Largent had been on the front end. The move from a mile to a mile and a sixteenth, the firm going - which should play to his speed - and second off the shelf all said he was a likely winner. Right to the front and held sway to the wire to score as the 4/5 favorite with my triple investment on board.
And I had my first winner on the Derby Day card. The fourth was the first of the stakes races, the Cutler Bay for 3yo colts. The favorite, even in this big field, even off the long layoff had to be Decorated Invader. After winning at Saratoga in his maiden debut he took the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. Used that as a springboard to the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and had a miserable trip but still was only beaten a little over a length when fourth. Under normal circumstances this listed stake could probably be viewed as a stepping stone towards one of the graded events coming up next month at Keeneland. But with Keeneland closed for the forseeable future I thought trainer Christophe Clement would have him ready to roll. Had a wide trip, no surprise after breaking from post ten. But he was in the clear and he came flying through the lane to be up inside the final 200 yards and then won going away. An impressive performance.
Unfortunately I'd not been strongly convinced he'd win and only had the minimum on that one. But I did have a double investment on the next play, this one from Tampa. The third there was a nw3L claiming event going a mile on the grass. Facts Don't Matter had twice used the turf sprint-to-turf route to show big efforts (a win and a troubled finish). Dropped out of the last two-turn for an allowance sprint last time, today she showed the characteristic stretch out and dropped into a conditioned claiming event. You need to watch the highlight video because after being on the lead, on the rail she was headed coming out of the turn, fell a half length back, then re-rallied and was JUST up in a four horse photo. So very close but I was pretty sure I'd won. Paid a big $9.20 so I cashed for almost $50. The fourth at Tampa was a Maiden Special and Christophe Clement is a near-30% winner with those and he was having a big meet in Tampa - 36% overall. He sent out Malibeauty for her debut today with hot-riding Sammy Camacho. She was on the rail, and broke ok, but rated in fourth into the turn. Looked to have no where to go but Camacho was patient and when a seam opened he sent her through. Then in something I cannot remember ever seeing, she was SO MUCH the best that the rider NEVER asked her at all. Even as she glided up to "duel" with the front runner he didn't move a muscle. She pulled clear by daylight like it was a workout. It was an amazing performance and she needs to be watched next time out! Got my final winner in the tenth, the Grade 3 Orchid Handicap going a mile and 3/8th on the turf with Mean Mary. I'd gone against her last time out when she won the Grade 3 La Prevoyante on Pegasus World Cup Day. But not only did she look good in here but she looked like the LONE speed. Handled beautifully she wired the field as easily best.
But the story of the day was not the wins I had but the two close losses. Prior to the Orchid was the Sanibel Island for 3yo fillies. In it, much like a few races later with Mean Mary, Cheermeister looked like the only speed. She'd won three of four and ALL on the lead, and ALL of them she was 6/1 or better. I was nearly certain she would be a similar price today. Sure enough, right to the front, all by herself but in the very, VERY shadow of the wire in an oh-so-tight photo she was caught. Then after the Orchid the one "most certain" winner came in the Grade 2 Pan American going a mile and a half with Zulu Alpha. He'd won two straight here in marathon events and looked really tough - especially at 3/5 in the program! But I just had the sense that instead running even better third off the shelf he might have already shot his wad and HAD been looking to Keeneland, but now was coming back sooner than expected. I looked but honestly couldn't find anyone I legitimately thought would beat him. In my analysis I said the price play was his stable mate Bamma Boy. The race went nearly as expected and turning for home Zulu Alpha surged to the front. When he didn't accelerate past to open up a daylight lead I knew we could be in trouble. Sure enough, surging late in the final 50 yards came my price play, his stable mate to JUST beat him.
Those two losses would have brought in an additional nearly $120 and we'd be having a completely different "discussion" about today with seven wins and a big profit. Ahhhhhh racing. What could have been. In the Florida Derby my top pick, the lightly raced Todd Pletcher horse beat the horse I thought was the best horse but thought it was worth going against since he'd not run since the Holy Bull. I really think the winner, Tiz The Law would have had a very good chance at winning the Kentucky Derby IF it had been run the first Saturday in May instead of the now postponed date of the first Saturday in September.
Sunday March 29: Closing Day
As a side note, ten minutes before NBCSN was going on air Friday afternoon by broadcasting the TVG national racing programming Santa Anita was forced to close by the Los Angeles governmental officials. That leaves Gulfstream as one of the very few still running and no one is more thankful than I am. After missing in the opener it was an interesting puzzle in the second as there were three solid win candidates. And in this case it was a situation where while all three COULD win, it was less the angles that led you to think one WOULD win rather than the angles that pointed out who would NOT have a good chance to win. Tizhara looked like the speed and he'd outfinished one of the other two last time out, but he'd had a clean trip and had barely finished in front of him. But most importantly his rider today was Chris Landeros who was riding an 0-for-111 streak at the meet. The "new shooter" to the party was Bill Mott's Ocean Fire. He'd run numbers that would win and was exiting a KEY race. But he was already 0-for-7 and in five of those he'd run second or third. That left Pardon My Heart. He had finished a "troubled" fourth behind Tizhara. I watched the replay and while he didn't have real trouble he was blocked and had did not have clear run when ready to roll. He got the hot-riding Luis Saez today and he had a lot more upside in my opinion that the other two. As they turned for home Saez shifted out off the rail, got into the clear - was it in time? JUST UP on the wire.
And of the three he was the best price, paying $7.80 allowing me to cash for almost $40. Were it not for the experiences earlier in the week where I missed not one but two Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden winner at 5/1 by going with the "obvious" favorite I probably would have had Chad Brown's $1.3 Million debuting Center Aisle in the fourth. But because I had missed those two I went with the Pletcher colt at 9/1 and watched the million dollar baby roll home as a potential superstar. In the fifth, what looked like everybody's single in the multi-wagers was Todd Pletcher's drop down runner Bean Counter. My best of the day couldn't get to the loose on the lead front runner and was second. Got back in the winner's circle with a Pletcher 3yo in the 6th - but there were two to choose from. But Dr. Post seemed clearly the one to go with. He had Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez and was coming off a long layoff - a Pletcher specialty here. But even more appealing was that he was a beaten favorite in his debut and finished behind a colt who came right back to win a Grade 2 and finish second in a Grade 1. AND the runner-up also came right back to win. He was working strongly for his return as well. As the field hit the top of the lane the "other" Pletcher was on the lead under Saez at a big price and looked strong. But Dr. Post found his running shoes and found another gear and ran by to get the win with my triple investment on him.
My pick in the 7th was both Ron Nicoletti's and the DRF Best Bet of the day....but he scratched out. Didn't really like another in the race so I watched. Passed the eighth. In the ninth I had the even money favorite but she was an even fourth. I went for a longshot in the finale and got it at 8/1. But even though I lost, I was happy. The favorite was ridden by the aforementioned Chris Landeros. It was the last race of the Championship Meet and he won....finally after well over one hundred losses. Good for him :)
I worked up the numbers on Monday to get the totals for the meet and I was delighted to discover that for the Championship Meet 2019-2020 I set new highs in both number of wins (301) and winning percentage (36%). Really happy with myself :) And especially the number of wins because for the past couple of weeks there have been fewer tracks running, so I've had shorter numbers of selections on the weekend. We now move into the Spring/Summer Racing Season. Typically I'd be looking forward to the Santa Anita Derby this weekend and the opening of the Keeneland Spring Meet. But both tracks are closed indefinitely. But the silver lining is that with no where else to go I've read that most of the barns stabled at Gulfstream will be staying in South Florida for the time being. And I hope that that will make the races similar to winter meet....at least for the time being.
Missed in the fifth and sixth - and while I can't say with certainty I'd have won the sixth, the fact that my filly hopped in the air and spotted the field a half dozen lengths didn't help. In the 7th the key to my selection was the fact that one of the fundamentals I learned in my "undergraduate" studies of handicapping is that each race is unique in and of itself, even when - like this one - several of the same runners are entered against each other again. Last time they met Verdict Is In was a narrow loser to Keepsakekitten. Off that effort 'Verdict moved up in class and ran respectfully. Down in class with the hot riding Paco Lopez today. BUT while she was making that move Keepsakekitten went to Tampa and beat $25K starter company and now is dropped aggressively by owner/trainer Frank Calabree/Saffie Joseph who have a habit of winning with those kind. Add in that three back the two met and 'Kitten was half a dozen clear. Easy, peasy pick..... Jockey Luis Saez sat near the back, asked for run on the turn, boxed in Verdict Is In entering the stretch and powered by to score by daylight.
But the BEST story of the day was in the eighth. Like several of today's races this was largely a redraw of a race from last Friday's cancelled card. That day and today my top choice in what appeared to be an evenly matched field was the returning Larry Rivelli charge, The Tabulator. This former stakes runner was 3-for-4 at this six furlong distance but what really caught my eye (after I read it in Ron Nicoletti's analysis last week) is that the barn is a remarkable 62% - MY NUMBER - with runners returning from a long break. How could I NOT bet that? Broke a step slow but quickly assumed command. Looked on the turn like the dueling front runner might have been softened up for a late runner, but then the big 62% angle became apparent as The Tabulator opened up with another gear and ran away like nobody's business. The more-than-healthy $8 payoff netted me a big $40 return. NICE.
My angle pick scratched out of the ninth - felt really good about that one - and so we were on to the finale, a maiden claimer for 3yo and yes, there was a Todd Pletcher entry. Mandate was making his first start for a tag and I'd discovered an interesting statistic on the Gulfstream Park Leader board. While Pletcher leads the standings and is winning at a big 23% overall, when he sends out the betting favorite, he's a 47% winner. WOW. Mandate left the gate as the 4/5 betting choice and sat third to the far turn. Moved up to duel with the leader to the furlong marker and then drew off like a Pletcher favorite should. Closed the day with my fourth win in eight selections and a solid profit.
Today's banner photo is from the 2010 Florida Derby when Uncle Dave was in from Kentucky to join us for an afternoon of racing. Coming off the big start to the week I was curious if the numbers would "even out" today. Seemed that way when I lost the first two races. Seemed pretty "obvious" - if there IS such a thing in handicapping - that Ohanzee would win the third. This was a maiden claiming turf sprint for three-year-olds. Her last was a one-mile try, toss that as she didn't like going that far. Prior to that two thirds and a second in turf sprints. The two show finishes were against MSW rivals and the 2nd came against $40K runners. Today she was in in for just $25K with the hot riding Paco Lopez on board for trainer Jane Cibelli - a barn he often scores for. Third into the far turn, moved to challenge and took over turning for home. If you look at the chart it looks like the closers were getting to her but watching the race live, once they were within 200 yards of the wire Paco just hand rode her home. Win #1 for the day!
In the fifth it was a rematch between two fillies that faced off last time and the DRF's Marty McGee made the filly who'd LOST that match-up his BEST of the Day. His comments and the trouble line indicated she'd had an issue at the start so I pulled up the replay. The trouble line comment, "...took up, rallied wide..." is far, FAR from an accurate portrayal of the running of the race from Sister O'Toole's perspective. She was shut off so badly that jockey Javier Castellano nearly came out of the saddle as she lost well over half a dozen lengths. Then when she came running some six wide she finished with 1 3/4 length of the wire winner. Her repeat rival had a smooth trip and backed up through the lane, which her pp's showed she'd done in all five starts. The bet became all the easier when that one scratched out today. Sister O'Toole sat comfortably just off the pace after a clean break today then accelerated to the front and held off all the oppositions to score as the even money favorite with my triple investment on board.......TWO wins.
It doesn't get much easier than the winner in the 7th, a starter optional claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth using the first finish line. Lightly raced six-year-old Blue Buff. Two back he'd won at six furlongs when returning to the main track. Stretched to a one-turn mile and beat several in today's field with ease. As a son of Unbridled's Song the added ground and two turns didn't seem to be an obstacle. Fourth to the turn then inhaled the field and quickly was more than a half dozen in front into the short stretch. Geared down the final margin was "only" a decisive four lengths. Doubled the bet on the kind of even money favorite you like to have your money on.
I lost the eighth but THE STORY of the day came in the featured ninth. I made Todd Pletcher's Soldado the BET of the Day. He'd won here to break his maiden last year in a sprint. Was a good third in a one-turn mile event, then shipped to Oaklawn and ran 4th in an allowance around two turns. In all his losses he'd seen runners who went on to stakes and/or graded stakes success. So when he came back here in an allowance sprint he was the bet. Was pressured to the stretch then drew off. I read the connections were thinking that a win in this test would propel him into the sprint stakes picture on the national scene with some big races in mind. As is so often the case, the way I saw the race, him breaking on top and wiring the field, did NOT play out. He was outsprinted early and through the turn you could see him tossing his head - and announcer Pete Aiello called the same - indicating he did NOT like being behind horses and eating dirt. Looked for a seam got one and came on to challenge the new leader. The jockey of that one cleverly began edging closer and closer to the rail in an effort to intimidate Soldado but he and jockey Luis Saez would not be deterred and courageously squeezed through to be up on the wire in a photo finish!
ANOTHER 4-for-8 day. Man, I'm having a very good week for sure.
So now, after back-to-back 50% winning days I really had to wonder what kind of day today would bring. I used for the banner the photo of Kim and I from the Florida Derby two years ago when I picked SEVEN winners on the card including the Derby winner, Audible. It's easy to say afterwards, but I SHOULD have known. Todd Pletcher wins with so many of his 3yo, and while his numbers haven't been as great this year STILL "the rule" is to always go with the Pletcher 3yo. But on some rare occasions I find a horse that I'm willing to take the risk on bypassing the price available on the Pletcher runner. In the opener EVERYONE knew Counterstrike was the one to beat and was sent off at 3/5. 8th while the Pletcher colt won at 5/1. Wow. But I came back to win the second with Miz Chaplain. She'd been a runaway winner in a maiden claimer at GPW and was claimed by Saffie Joseph. He was unbeatable with that move until the calendar turned to March and now he's just "very good with" those. He'd given the filly three long months to bounce back and had seen her work bullets in the morning. Sent right to the front she was the easiest kind of winner in a 3yo claiming event sprinting six furlongs.
The third was another six furlong maiden claimer for sophomores. All of the ones with experience were far from trust worthy. So it would have been a good spot for a debut runner under any circumstances. But then you looked at the trainer stats for Tapping. Trainer Gustavo Delgado was a 42% winner with all his first time starters. And when in for a tag like this, it was an even better 44%. On top of that he had Emisael Jaramillo, the "Minister of Speed" to ride which told me they were going to the front. The morning line/program maker had her pegged at 6/1. Figured we'd get maybe 4/1, but that was a great price. Right to the front and won in hand. But the best part - couldn't believe it - she left the gate at better than 8/1. Paid $19.60 and I cashed for almost $50. Made up for missing the Pletcher winner, mostly.
Came right back in the fourth with First Wave in a MSW turf sprint. She'd debuted with a big 80 Beyer in a MSW turf sprint then went two turns, toss, then went on the dirt, toss. The DRF's Mike Welsch is most effective - in my opinion - when he talks about/analyzes morning works. He noted she'd been "working well" and in company with an older, multiple stakes winner. Sealed the deal for me. Pressed the pace to the turn, took over, opened up. But then had to hang on for the win. THREE IN A ROW!
The only "bad news" is that all three of these were minimum plays. Have to give myself some credit because after missing on two picks the last selection of the day was a turf event going nine furlongs in a second level allowance. The Chad Brown runner fit all the criteria that has made him deadly on the grass. BUT, Silver Kitten looked like the lone speed and I mean the LONE speed. Right to the front handled beautifully by Luis Saez. And even when they turned for home he didn't ask for anything. But when the Brown runner began to accelerate he then put the petal to the metal and shot to the wire to score. Another four-win day!
Saturday March 28: Florida Derby Day
As the day broke I refused to let the current situation keep me from sporting my Florida Derby outfit and especially my cork hat that I purchased in Portugal last November. And later in the day Kim put on her cork hat from Portugal. The day as a whole went as I expected. First, after scoring TWELVE times during the first three days I knew it would be difficult to win at that kind of clip under any circumstances. But second, when I looked at the Derby Day card, the fourteen races were really difficult. Even the one with the "that's so obvious" favorite I thought he was vulnerable. And while I was disappointed that our oldest son Jeff had to cancel his flight and visit to be here for the very first time on Florida Derby Day, we did Face Time a lot during the day so it was kind of like he was here.
The day started off with a big longshot and my pick, who went favored didn't fire. And in the second my horse who was the second choice also didn't fire. But in the third Todd Pletcher's Largent lived up to my expectations as one of the more likely winners on the card. He'd won on the turf last winter at first asking then was just beaten on the Preakness undercard. Came back this winter to score in first level allowance and then last time out he was a just miss second, beaten a head. What was significant was that on the turf that day, closers ruled the day and Largent had been on the front end. The move from a mile to a mile and a sixteenth, the firm going - which should play to his speed - and second off the shelf all said he was a likely winner. Right to the front and held sway to the wire to score as the 4/5 favorite with my triple investment on board.
And I had my first winner on the Derby Day card. The fourth was the first of the stakes races, the Cutler Bay for 3yo colts. The favorite, even in this big field, even off the long layoff had to be Decorated Invader. After winning at Saratoga in his maiden debut he took the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. Used that as a springboard to the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and had a miserable trip but still was only beaten a little over a length when fourth. Under normal circumstances this listed stake could probably be viewed as a stepping stone towards one of the graded events coming up next month at Keeneland. But with Keeneland closed for the forseeable future I thought trainer Christophe Clement would have him ready to roll. Had a wide trip, no surprise after breaking from post ten. But he was in the clear and he came flying through the lane to be up inside the final 200 yards and then won going away. An impressive performance.
Unfortunately I'd not been strongly convinced he'd win and only had the minimum on that one. But I did have a double investment on the next play, this one from Tampa. The third there was a nw3L claiming event going a mile on the grass. Facts Don't Matter had twice used the turf sprint-to-turf route to show big efforts (a win and a troubled finish). Dropped out of the last two-turn for an allowance sprint last time, today she showed the characteristic stretch out and dropped into a conditioned claiming event. You need to watch the highlight video because after being on the lead, on the rail she was headed coming out of the turn, fell a half length back, then re-rallied and was JUST up in a four horse photo. So very close but I was pretty sure I'd won. Paid a big $9.20 so I cashed for almost $50. The fourth at Tampa was a Maiden Special and Christophe Clement is a near-30% winner with those and he was having a big meet in Tampa - 36% overall. He sent out Malibeauty for her debut today with hot-riding Sammy Camacho. She was on the rail, and broke ok, but rated in fourth into the turn. Looked to have no where to go but Camacho was patient and when a seam opened he sent her through. Then in something I cannot remember ever seeing, she was SO MUCH the best that the rider NEVER asked her at all. Even as she glided up to "duel" with the front runner he didn't move a muscle. She pulled clear by daylight like it was a workout. It was an amazing performance and she needs to be watched next time out! Got my final winner in the tenth, the Grade 3 Orchid Handicap going a mile and 3/8th on the turf with Mean Mary. I'd gone against her last time out when she won the Grade 3 La Prevoyante on Pegasus World Cup Day. But not only did she look good in here but she looked like the LONE speed. Handled beautifully she wired the field as easily best.
But the story of the day was not the wins I had but the two close losses. Prior to the Orchid was the Sanibel Island for 3yo fillies. In it, much like a few races later with Mean Mary, Cheermeister looked like the only speed. She'd won three of four and ALL on the lead, and ALL of them she was 6/1 or better. I was nearly certain she would be a similar price today. Sure enough, right to the front, all by herself but in the very, VERY shadow of the wire in an oh-so-tight photo she was caught. Then after the Orchid the one "most certain" winner came in the Grade 2 Pan American going a mile and a half with Zulu Alpha. He'd won two straight here in marathon events and looked really tough - especially at 3/5 in the program! But I just had the sense that instead running even better third off the shelf he might have already shot his wad and HAD been looking to Keeneland, but now was coming back sooner than expected. I looked but honestly couldn't find anyone I legitimately thought would beat him. In my analysis I said the price play was his stable mate Bamma Boy. The race went nearly as expected and turning for home Zulu Alpha surged to the front. When he didn't accelerate past to open up a daylight lead I knew we could be in trouble. Sure enough, surging late in the final 50 yards came my price play, his stable mate to JUST beat him.
Those two losses would have brought in an additional nearly $120 and we'd be having a completely different "discussion" about today with seven wins and a big profit. Ahhhhhh racing. What could have been. In the Florida Derby my top pick, the lightly raced Todd Pletcher horse beat the horse I thought was the best horse but thought it was worth going against since he'd not run since the Holy Bull. I really think the winner, Tiz The Law would have had a very good chance at winning the Kentucky Derby IF it had been run the first Saturday in May instead of the now postponed date of the first Saturday in September.
As a side note, ten minutes before NBCSN was going on air Friday afternoon by broadcasting the TVG national racing programming Santa Anita was forced to close by the Los Angeles governmental officials. That leaves Gulfstream as one of the very few still running and no one is more thankful than I am. After missing in the opener it was an interesting puzzle in the second as there were three solid win candidates. And in this case it was a situation where while all three COULD win, it was less the angles that led you to think one WOULD win rather than the angles that pointed out who would NOT have a good chance to win. Tizhara looked like the speed and he'd outfinished one of the other two last time out, but he'd had a clean trip and had barely finished in front of him. But most importantly his rider today was Chris Landeros who was riding an 0-for-111 streak at the meet. The "new shooter" to the party was Bill Mott's Ocean Fire. He'd run numbers that would win and was exiting a KEY race. But he was already 0-for-7 and in five of those he'd run second or third. That left Pardon My Heart. He had finished a "troubled" fourth behind Tizhara. I watched the replay and while he didn't have real trouble he was blocked and had did not have clear run when ready to roll. He got the hot-riding Luis Saez today and he had a lot more upside in my opinion that the other two. As they turned for home Saez shifted out off the rail, got into the clear - was it in time? JUST UP on the wire.
And of the three he was the best price, paying $7.80 allowing me to cash for almost $40. Were it not for the experiences earlier in the week where I missed not one but two Todd Pletcher 3yo maiden winner at 5/1 by going with the "obvious" favorite I probably would have had Chad Brown's $1.3 Million debuting Center Aisle in the fourth. But because I had missed those two I went with the Pletcher colt at 9/1 and watched the million dollar baby roll home as a potential superstar. In the fifth, what looked like everybody's single in the multi-wagers was Todd Pletcher's drop down runner Bean Counter. My best of the day couldn't get to the loose on the lead front runner and was second. Got back in the winner's circle with a Pletcher 3yo in the 6th - but there were two to choose from. But Dr. Post seemed clearly the one to go with. He had Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez and was coming off a long layoff - a Pletcher specialty here. But even more appealing was that he was a beaten favorite in his debut and finished behind a colt who came right back to win a Grade 2 and finish second in a Grade 1. AND the runner-up also came right back to win. He was working strongly for his return as well. As the field hit the top of the lane the "other" Pletcher was on the lead under Saez at a big price and looked strong. But Dr. Post found his running shoes and found another gear and ran by to get the win with my triple investment on him.
My pick in the 7th was both Ron Nicoletti's and the DRF Best Bet of the day....but he scratched out. Didn't really like another in the race so I watched. Passed the eighth. In the ninth I had the even money favorite but she was an even fourth. I went for a longshot in the finale and got it at 8/1. But even though I lost, I was happy. The favorite was ridden by the aforementioned Chris Landeros. It was the last race of the Championship Meet and he won....finally after well over one hundred losses. Good for him :)
I worked up the numbers on Monday to get the totals for the meet and I was delighted to discover that for the Championship Meet 2019-2020 I set new highs in both number of wins (301) and winning percentage (36%). Really happy with myself :) And especially the number of wins because for the past couple of weeks there have been fewer tracks running, so I've had shorter numbers of selections on the weekend. We now move into the Spring/Summer Racing Season. Typically I'd be looking forward to the Santa Anita Derby this weekend and the opening of the Keeneland Spring Meet. But both tracks are closed indefinitely. But the silver lining is that with no where else to go I've read that most of the barns stabled at Gulfstream will be staying in South Florida for the time being. And I hope that that will make the races similar to winter meet....at least for the time being.
