January 29 - February 2
It was a pretty strong week of racing results for me, and I got to enjoy the week with my Mom who was visiting from the "frozen tundra" of Ohio. Here's how the week played out......
Wednesday January 29
The week kicked off with a Todd Pletcher runner in a claiming event restricted to three-year-olds on the turf. I would have had a difficult time liking Quick Enough had he not been a Pletcher runner. He'd scored for me on opening day in a maiden claimer, in the meet's opener. But he'd been ambitiously placed in a $35K starter last time out. And that was the issue - he ran dismally. BUT, (a) it is Pletcher, and (b) the winner came right back to score. Also, today's $20K cast was pretty weak I thought. Rated in fifth by Luis Saez he rallied on the turn, took the lead and then held off the closing fourth choice. My double investment netted me a little more than $20 to start off the day.
In the third race it was a compact field of five going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. The crowd and both Jason Blewitt & Ron Nicoletti (the on-air handicappers) all liked Alien Invasion who had wired a field just like this last time out. And he DID appear to be the lone speed. But starters in for a price tag like this ($12.5K) are typically consistently inconsistent. So that opened the door for my pick which was High Noon Rider on the rail. He appealed to be on multiple angles. First, he'd won three in a row last year prompting his connections to try a Gr 3 event. In addition he was a TEN time winner on the grass. But what really grabbed my attention was that he was making his first start in the Saffie Joseph barn today, a BIG win angle. AND Tyler Gafflione was riding - he's a 37% winner for Joseph. As the race unfolded Alien Invasion was loose on the lead and Gafflione had High Noon Rider in the back. This concerned me but then I remembered that when I'd been to the track a couple of weeks ago there was a similar short field of five (on the dirt) and there was a lone speed with Gafflione in the back on a Saffie Joseph runner. That one swept by and won easily, so I had hope. Sure enough on the turn, High Noon Rider kicked it into a whole other gear and inhaled the field, drawing off to win for fun.
And the best part....his odds floated up to well over 3/1! His $2 mutual payoff of $8.80 led me to cashing for nearly $45 on my second bet of the day. Missed on the next two before my final selection of the day in the ninth race. This was a starter allowance going a one-turn mile with all of the prime win contenders stepping up in price to run in this $50K event. But I thought that if Overdeliver ran back to four of his last five starts he COULD win for fun. What gave me the confidence to pick him, and then UP the bet before post time was that much like High Noon Rider, Overdeliver was making his first start for Saffie Joseph with Tyler G riding. AND he was ambitiously raised off a $25K claim to run here. He pressed the pace of the second choice to the far turn, cruised to the front and like High Noon Rider drew off to win convincingly!
Three for five on the first day of the racing week with a solid, flat-bet profit. Whoooo hooooo.
Thursday January 30 / Friday January 31
On Wednesday I passed the first two races and in the third I liked Dark Ages who was bet all the way down to 2/5 favoritism in a non-winners of two lifetime turf sprint. He was the only one in the field who'd NEVER tried conditioned company like this. Hot-riding Irad Ortiz sealed the deal. The race looked to be between he and What's To Blame who'd just finished 2nd at this level and distance for Christophe Clement. That he'd lost at 2/5, was getting blinkers AND a rider change all made me think that they were "reaching" to try and get him the win. The two of them laid it down the length of the stretch with one head up and the other one down. To make it even more intriguing there was some bumping through the lane before in the shadow of the wire I thought I crossed the wire first.
The photo DID show me in front and the rider of 'Blame did object, but it soon was official and I had yet another victory. But from there for the day I was done. Third twice, then second as the 3/2 and a favorite with a Todd Pletcher turf runner; and closed the day with a dismal 12th on another Pletcher runner who was a big 9/1 at post time. On Friday I started off with back-to-back third place finishes before we finally got to Race 7. It was a claiming event restricted to three-year-olds and all these were fairly lightly raced. But I liked R U Lucky who like both High Noon Rider and Overdeliver was going first off the claim for Saffie Joseph. And this one was going for owner Frank Calabrese who ALWAYS spots his horses where they can win. The crowd saw the same thing I did and sent him off as the short-priced 6/5 favorite. He dueled through the opening quarter but even though he looked to be getting pressure, it appeared to me that Tyler Gafflione was sitting on a ton of horse just waiting to let him go. He flicked his wrists as the began to spin out of the turn and the response was instant. The narrow lead was quickly a length; then 4 1/2 at the furlong pole; and as he cruised under the wire, under wraps, the margin was over ten lengths. I even said out loud, "WOW." Reminded me of a colt this time last year that won back-to-back $16K starter sprints with big numbers. That 3yo was Maximum Security who stepped up to win the Florida Derby and become a multiple graded stakes winner before being named Champion 3yo at the Eclipse Awards a couple weeks ago.
Today my Mom and I headed out to Gulfstream and all week long I'd gone back and forth about what to do about seating because of the weather forecast. With the Super Bowl on Sunday all the local weather people have been raving about how come Sunday we'd be clear and beautiful weather. BUT, the weather prior to that would see a big storm front sweep through the area bringing not only rain, but thunderstorms and perhaps flooding. So, to sit outside we'd not only be exposed to what ever sun there was, but we would get drenched. And the seats I wanted to get, on the new terrace dining were under cover, but were where our grandstand seats used to be.....and there, if the rain was hard or came down the wrong way (or wind-blown) you still would get wet. So in the end we opted to sit inside like we did last year. My Mom didn't seem to mind that she could have a clear view of the track (because to sit against the window you had to sit at a table for six and to purchase seats there you had to buy the entire table!). For me it didn't matter all that much because I would go outside and stand on the terrace for filming and viewing no matter where we were seated.
When I handicapped the card, because of the weather forecast I handicapped the turf races for both on the grass and if they were rained off. Despite the virtual "assurance" that there would be a lot of rain I've been to Gulfstream on many an afternoon where it was "certainly" going to rain and it's been anywhere from an occasional light shower, to clear and sunny. By the time we headed for home after the twelfth and final race we both had enjoyed a very successful day at the races AND it had only sprinkled a couple of times during the racing. Because of that the stakes races were kept on the turf for the afternoon. In the opener it was a non-winners of two lifetime event going a one-turn mile. And for me it would normally be very difficult to take the lifetime record of Shanghaisweetheart, 15/1-3-5. Coupled with the fact the 5yo mare had already lost in 2-lifetime company more than once, that's almost always a certain NO BET. But today 'Shanghai was going first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza and he wins with those at an astounding 47% rate. Jockey Tyler Gafflione sent her right to the front and never looked back.
Though sent off as the favorite, she was still better than 2/1 at post time and I cashed for over $30 to start the afternoon! I missed at 3/5 when 2nd at Aqueduct but came right back in Gulfstream's third (my top pick scratched in the 2nd) when Elusive Molly went right to the front in an off-the-turf, one-turn mile. She set wicked fractions and on the far turn I thought, "She'll never hang on." But instead she kept right on going and won by ten plus widening lengths, and I'm 2-for-2 at Gulfstream!
Next up was the fourth from Gulfstream and it was a first level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth with a first line finish. Most people liked Kid Bourbon who had been run strongly in each start, and was beaten at this level last time out as the favorite. OK, it was first time vs. winners but I didn't like the 1-for-16 barn record. On the other hand, Todd Pletcher was sending out a colt named Fearless who had JUST broken his maiden. The question in my mind was if the $700K sales grad was good enough to win right back vs. winners in this weak field, or would that often difficult hurdle be too much for him. Liked that hot riding Irad Ortiz was up. Fearless was pressing the pace from the outset while favored Kid Bourbon was mid-pack. And with a first finish line, that's NOT the place to be. They hit the far turn and Fearless opened up and drew off as MUCH the best. The big 3/1 post time price saw him pay a whopping $8.40 (huge for Pletcher runner) and I was cashing for over $40 on my third straight winner at Gulfstream Park today!!!
In Aqueduct's third, Justice of War scored for me at 8/5 to give me my fourth win on the day. The fifth saw my top pick scratch so next up was the Grade 3 Forward Gal for 3yo fillies looking to head towards the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks and maybe the Kentucky Oaks. Lightly raced and unbeaten Tonalist's Shape from the Saffie Joseph barn looked best on paper as her only one of the sixteen Beyer speed figures from her rivals would be a test for her on her worst day. I just didn't think she'd seen very strong company to date....but then again I didn't think this was a very strong field. Irad Ortiz sat off the leaders to mid-way on the turn, inhaled the field and won like a 1/5 favorite should. Still perfect on the day at GP with four consecutive winners!
Next up was my BET of the Day in a 3yo Maiden Special event going a one-turn mile. Todd Pletcher's Palm Springs was $1 Million sales grad and had gone off at 3/5 odds in his debut. But jockey Javier Castellano had not gotten him away cleanly from the rail; rushed him up in traffic, had to check back, circle the field and still closed to be a sharp second. That was in a sprint race and I thought with the experience, the wide draw and the stretch out to a one-turn mile he'd be difficult to beat. My only fear was that Castellano would give another one of his questionable rides. I had planned to make him a $30 WIN bet but wanted to up the ante. I went back and forth and back and forth. Finally when I re-read that hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney had also made him HER best bet and she commented that she'd been waiting for him to come back to the races I raised the bet to $50 to WIN. I was surprised as late in the betting his odds went up from 1/5 to 2/5 to 3/5 and then settled in at 1/2 - "huge" if you considered how good he SHOULD be. Got away cleanly - whew, but they lined up four across the track through a sharp but not too fast :22.4 opening quarter. I was ok with Castellano keeping him in the clear, but when the half mile went up in :45.2 and he was STILL four wide I began to get concerned. The 3/1 second choice moved clear on the lead and Palm Springs followed him in second, now only three-wide. As they approached the top of the stretch Palm Springs opened up by daylight and looked home free. But I could tell he was not extending the lead and from the back of the pack a 10/1 longshot was gobbling up ground. If you've been to the races as often as I have you can just "tell" that uh oh, this is going to be really close. With each stride the closer was gaining ground and now Castellano was pleading for more from Palm Springs.....PHOTO FINISH!!!!
I honestly thought I was a nose in front, but when I saw the slow motion replay it truly depended on exactly where the actual finish line was. Then as the horses jogged back the longshot's jockey pulled up outside the winner's circle. "Well that's a bit presumptuous" I thought. Then here comes Palm Springs and Castellano takes him right past the winner's circle down the track to where the "losers" unsaddle. What the!!!!! Just as he was about to get off his "losing" mount the announcer said, "The results of the photo show Palm Springs the WINNER!" WOW. BUT, hey....a win's a win and my $50 bet was getting me back a nice $75 return AND I'm still perfect on the day locally with five straight wins!
Missed at Oaklawn at 4/5 when a fading sixth; missed at Santa Anita at 1/2 when a fading third with a Bob Baffert filly. And finally lost a race at Gulfstream when favored Green Light Go was a troubled third at 8/5 in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes. I got back to the winner's circle at 5/2 with a claiming horse at Oaklawn and then was disappointed when Shotski was 2nd best in Aqueduct's Grade 3 Withers (the NY version of our Holy Bull for three-year-olds on the Derby trail). Next on my sheet was an entry level allowance from Santa Anita. I've said many times before that DRF analyst Brad Free is the only public handicapper left who's opinion can sway mine, or cause me to add to the bet. His BEST of the day came in this third race sprint with Bob Baffert's Auberge. She'd been a sharp second in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez behind stablemate and multiple Gr 1 winner Bast. The drop in company should make her a handy winner. No surprise she was sent off at 3/5 and she strutted her stuff through the lane as much the best - my eighth winner on the day.....I'm having a very good day :)
I stuck with my "main track selection" in the Gr 3 Dania Beach even though it stayed on the turf - fifth at 6/1. And then one of the races I was most looking forward to. I'd won with 3yo filly Taraz in a Fair Grounds listed event a month ago and was really impressed. Since then I'd read that her connections had said that if the massive filly (apparently she's huge) would be put on the Kentucky Derby trail against the colts if she continued to impress today in Oaklawn's Martha Washington Stakes - the first step towards the Kentucky Oaks on the Arkansas trail. I knew she'd be a prohibitive favorite, but I really wanted to bet her and watch her run. She'd been a wire-to-wire winner in both her sprint victories and I wondered if today they'd try and get her to relax, or was she simply too good and too fast for these. Gates opened and she was away a bit slowly, but she quickly spurted to the front and was well in hand. When they got to the far turn she began lengthening stride and opened up without even being asked. It was the easiest of wins and I cashed my $30 WIN ticket wondering if I'd seen a legitimate Derby threat....I'll tell you this, she looks good. Very talented. Is she a super star that will make the colts afraid? Not ready to say that at this point.
Minutes later the three-year-old colts on the Florida Derby trail were in the paddock for the featured Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. I'd looked at the field carefully and wanted to try and beat the favorite, Tiz The Law. But in spite of his first loss last time out, going two turns for the first time at today's distance, I thought he just looked much, MUCH the best. He was the lone graded stakes winner in the field, having won the Grade 1 Champagne then skipped the Breeders' Cup in favor of the Gr 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. He'd had all kinds of traffic problems and the track was sloppy so I was willing to give him a pass on that. And from the interviews I'd seen and what I'd read his connections - who had campaigned Funny Cide to Kentucky Derby and Preakness victories - seemed truly excited about getting him back on the track. And I also thought they wanted to make a statement today after his last race loss. Finally, the fact that current leading Aqueduct rider Manny Franco had flown down for the day sealed the deal for me. He floated up from his 3/5 morning line to 6/5 at post time. If as good as I thought that was stealing. He broke cleanly, then Franco took him back and was in a perfect tracking position on the rail. He had to check as a couple of the cheap speeds began to back up, so he moved outside for clear running. When roused on the turn he took off like a shot and ran away as much the best, a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender.
Missed with my last two "live" bets - the finale at Gulfstream and the co-feature at Oaklawn. But I had one more bet, Bob Baffert's Thousand Words who was supposedly his top Derby prospect. He was the short-priced morning line favorite in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis. My Mom and I headed out, me with my ticket in hand for the Santa Anita race. As we approached the escalator we went by a big simulcast screen with Santa Anita's race feed. My horse was a whopping 14/1 and there was a 3/5 favorite on the board.....what????? I know it's early in the betting, but that is really out of line. I quickly opened up my xpressbet app and went to the Santa Anita race. Uh oh, I'd bet the wrong horse (typed it up wrong on my selection sheet)! I told my Mom to hang on and I dashed back inside and exchanged the ticket. WHEW! Thousand Words wasn't that impressive, but he did win to finish my day off as my ELEVENTH WIN from just nineteen selections. And a profit of nearly $65.
I often make up a "Handicapper's Selections" sheet to track how all the "pros" do compared to my selections. Check out Saturday's sheet....
Oh that's right my friends, I'm the champ!
Sunday February 2
I closed out the week in a sharp way as I won with two of four selections on Sunday, one of whch was a "prime time" play. Missed on the first two when 7th and 9th as non-favorites. But in the 6th, Todd Pletcher sent out first time starter Eve of War. The DRF's Marty McGee commented about how strong his works were and when you compared Pletcher's stats to the win chances of the rest of them (either with first time starters or second time maidens) you could see why he would never be the 8/1 offered by the DRF morning line. The rest of the field featured win percents of 10%, 19%, 7%, 6%, 7%, 6%, 5%, and 5%. Pletcher wins at 23%....oh. And that 19% came from a third time starter who had earned a very slow (53) Beyer last time out. Eve of War quickly cleared the field under John Velazquez and opened his advantage with each and every stride. In the end he scored by 7 1/2 lengths officially while under wraps. Cashed for $40.
All I had to do was win the finale to have a winning day. And Fiber Optic did that with ease in a nw2x turf sprint at odds of 2/1. It was an excellent week.
And with the end of the month I did my stats - still on track to break last year's best-ever percentages for a winter meet!
In the third race it was a compact field of five going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. The crowd and both Jason Blewitt & Ron Nicoletti (the on-air handicappers) all liked Alien Invasion who had wired a field just like this last time out. And he DID appear to be the lone speed. But starters in for a price tag like this ($12.5K) are typically consistently inconsistent. So that opened the door for my pick which was High Noon Rider on the rail. He appealed to be on multiple angles. First, he'd won three in a row last year prompting his connections to try a Gr 3 event. In addition he was a TEN time winner on the grass. But what really grabbed my attention was that he was making his first start in the Saffie Joseph barn today, a BIG win angle. AND Tyler Gafflione was riding - he's a 37% winner for Joseph. As the race unfolded Alien Invasion was loose on the lead and Gafflione had High Noon Rider in the back. This concerned me but then I remembered that when I'd been to the track a couple of weeks ago there was a similar short field of five (on the dirt) and there was a lone speed with Gafflione in the back on a Saffie Joseph runner. That one swept by and won easily, so I had hope. Sure enough on the turn, High Noon Rider kicked it into a whole other gear and inhaled the field, drawing off to win for fun.
And the best part....his odds floated up to well over 3/1! His $2 mutual payoff of $8.80 led me to cashing for nearly $45 on my second bet of the day. Missed on the next two before my final selection of the day in the ninth race. This was a starter allowance going a one-turn mile with all of the prime win contenders stepping up in price to run in this $50K event. But I thought that if Overdeliver ran back to four of his last five starts he COULD win for fun. What gave me the confidence to pick him, and then UP the bet before post time was that much like High Noon Rider, Overdeliver was making his first start for Saffie Joseph with Tyler G riding. AND he was ambitiously raised off a $25K claim to run here. He pressed the pace of the second choice to the far turn, cruised to the front and like High Noon Rider drew off to win convincingly!
Three for five on the first day of the racing week with a solid, flat-bet profit. Whoooo hooooo.
Thursday January 30 / Friday January 31
On Wednesday I passed the first two races and in the third I liked Dark Ages who was bet all the way down to 2/5 favoritism in a non-winners of two lifetime turf sprint. He was the only one in the field who'd NEVER tried conditioned company like this. Hot-riding Irad Ortiz sealed the deal. The race looked to be between he and What's To Blame who'd just finished 2nd at this level and distance for Christophe Clement. That he'd lost at 2/5, was getting blinkers AND a rider change all made me think that they were "reaching" to try and get him the win. The two of them laid it down the length of the stretch with one head up and the other one down. To make it even more intriguing there was some bumping through the lane before in the shadow of the wire I thought I crossed the wire first.
The photo DID show me in front and the rider of 'Blame did object, but it soon was official and I had yet another victory. But from there for the day I was done. Third twice, then second as the 3/2 and a favorite with a Todd Pletcher turf runner; and closed the day with a dismal 12th on another Pletcher runner who was a big 9/1 at post time. On Friday I started off with back-to-back third place finishes before we finally got to Race 7. It was a claiming event restricted to three-year-olds and all these were fairly lightly raced. But I liked R U Lucky who like both High Noon Rider and Overdeliver was going first off the claim for Saffie Joseph. And this one was going for owner Frank Calabrese who ALWAYS spots his horses where they can win. The crowd saw the same thing I did and sent him off as the short-priced 6/5 favorite. He dueled through the opening quarter but even though he looked to be getting pressure, it appeared to me that Tyler Gafflione was sitting on a ton of horse just waiting to let him go. He flicked his wrists as the began to spin out of the turn and the response was instant. The narrow lead was quickly a length; then 4 1/2 at the furlong pole; and as he cruised under the wire, under wraps, the margin was over ten lengths. I even said out loud, "WOW." Reminded me of a colt this time last year that won back-to-back $16K starter sprints with big numbers. That 3yo was Maximum Security who stepped up to win the Florida Derby and become a multiple graded stakes winner before being named Champion 3yo at the Eclipse Awards a couple weeks ago.
Saturday February 1: Holy Bull Day
When I handicapped the card, because of the weather forecast I handicapped the turf races for both on the grass and if they were rained off. Despite the virtual "assurance" that there would be a lot of rain I've been to Gulfstream on many an afternoon where it was "certainly" going to rain and it's been anywhere from an occasional light shower, to clear and sunny. By the time we headed for home after the twelfth and final race we both had enjoyed a very successful day at the races AND it had only sprinkled a couple of times during the racing. Because of that the stakes races were kept on the turf for the afternoon. In the opener it was a non-winners of two lifetime event going a one-turn mile. And for me it would normally be very difficult to take the lifetime record of Shanghaisweetheart, 15/1-3-5. Coupled with the fact the 5yo mare had already lost in 2-lifetime company more than once, that's almost always a certain NO BET. But today 'Shanghai was going first off the claim for trainer Victor Barboza and he wins with those at an astounding 47% rate. Jockey Tyler Gafflione sent her right to the front and never looked back.
Though sent off as the favorite, she was still better than 2/1 at post time and I cashed for over $30 to start the afternoon! I missed at 3/5 when 2nd at Aqueduct but came right back in Gulfstream's third (my top pick scratched in the 2nd) when Elusive Molly went right to the front in an off-the-turf, one-turn mile. She set wicked fractions and on the far turn I thought, "She'll never hang on." But instead she kept right on going and won by ten plus widening lengths, and I'm 2-for-2 at Gulfstream!
Next up was the fourth from Gulfstream and it was a first level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth with a first line finish. Most people liked Kid Bourbon who had been run strongly in each start, and was beaten at this level last time out as the favorite. OK, it was first time vs. winners but I didn't like the 1-for-16 barn record. On the other hand, Todd Pletcher was sending out a colt named Fearless who had JUST broken his maiden. The question in my mind was if the $700K sales grad was good enough to win right back vs. winners in this weak field, or would that often difficult hurdle be too much for him. Liked that hot riding Irad Ortiz was up. Fearless was pressing the pace from the outset while favored Kid Bourbon was mid-pack. And with a first finish line, that's NOT the place to be. They hit the far turn and Fearless opened up and drew off as MUCH the best. The big 3/1 post time price saw him pay a whopping $8.40 (huge for Pletcher runner) and I was cashing for over $40 on my third straight winner at Gulfstream Park today!!!
In Aqueduct's third, Justice of War scored for me at 8/5 to give me my fourth win on the day. The fifth saw my top pick scratch so next up was the Grade 3 Forward Gal for 3yo fillies looking to head towards the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks and maybe the Kentucky Oaks. Lightly raced and unbeaten Tonalist's Shape from the Saffie Joseph barn looked best on paper as her only one of the sixteen Beyer speed figures from her rivals would be a test for her on her worst day. I just didn't think she'd seen very strong company to date....but then again I didn't think this was a very strong field. Irad Ortiz sat off the leaders to mid-way on the turn, inhaled the field and won like a 1/5 favorite should. Still perfect on the day at GP with four consecutive winners!
Next up was my BET of the Day in a 3yo Maiden Special event going a one-turn mile. Todd Pletcher's Palm Springs was $1 Million sales grad and had gone off at 3/5 odds in his debut. But jockey Javier Castellano had not gotten him away cleanly from the rail; rushed him up in traffic, had to check back, circle the field and still closed to be a sharp second. That was in a sprint race and I thought with the experience, the wide draw and the stretch out to a one-turn mile he'd be difficult to beat. My only fear was that Castellano would give another one of his questionable rides. I had planned to make him a $30 WIN bet but wanted to up the ante. I went back and forth and back and forth. Finally when I re-read that hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney had also made him HER best bet and she commented that she'd been waiting for him to come back to the races I raised the bet to $50 to WIN. I was surprised as late in the betting his odds went up from 1/5 to 2/5 to 3/5 and then settled in at 1/2 - "huge" if you considered how good he SHOULD be. Got away cleanly - whew, but they lined up four across the track through a sharp but not too fast :22.4 opening quarter. I was ok with Castellano keeping him in the clear, but when the half mile went up in :45.2 and he was STILL four wide I began to get concerned. The 3/1 second choice moved clear on the lead and Palm Springs followed him in second, now only three-wide. As they approached the top of the stretch Palm Springs opened up by daylight and looked home free. But I could tell he was not extending the lead and from the back of the pack a 10/1 longshot was gobbling up ground. If you've been to the races as often as I have you can just "tell" that uh oh, this is going to be really close. With each stride the closer was gaining ground and now Castellano was pleading for more from Palm Springs.....PHOTO FINISH!!!!
I honestly thought I was a nose in front, but when I saw the slow motion replay it truly depended on exactly where the actual finish line was. Then as the horses jogged back the longshot's jockey pulled up outside the winner's circle. "Well that's a bit presumptuous" I thought. Then here comes Palm Springs and Castellano takes him right past the winner's circle down the track to where the "losers" unsaddle. What the!!!!! Just as he was about to get off his "losing" mount the announcer said, "The results of the photo show Palm Springs the WINNER!" WOW. BUT, hey....a win's a win and my $50 bet was getting me back a nice $75 return AND I'm still perfect on the day locally with five straight wins!
Missed at Oaklawn at 4/5 when a fading sixth; missed at Santa Anita at 1/2 when a fading third with a Bob Baffert filly. And finally lost a race at Gulfstream when favored Green Light Go was a troubled third at 8/5 in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes. I got back to the winner's circle at 5/2 with a claiming horse at Oaklawn and then was disappointed when Shotski was 2nd best in Aqueduct's Grade 3 Withers (the NY version of our Holy Bull for three-year-olds on the Derby trail). Next on my sheet was an entry level allowance from Santa Anita. I've said many times before that DRF analyst Brad Free is the only public handicapper left who's opinion can sway mine, or cause me to add to the bet. His BEST of the day came in this third race sprint with Bob Baffert's Auberge. She'd been a sharp second in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez behind stablemate and multiple Gr 1 winner Bast. The drop in company should make her a handy winner. No surprise she was sent off at 3/5 and she strutted her stuff through the lane as much the best - my eighth winner on the day.....I'm having a very good day :)
I stuck with my "main track selection" in the Gr 3 Dania Beach even though it stayed on the turf - fifth at 6/1. And then one of the races I was most looking forward to. I'd won with 3yo filly Taraz in a Fair Grounds listed event a month ago and was really impressed. Since then I'd read that her connections had said that if the massive filly (apparently she's huge) would be put on the Kentucky Derby trail against the colts if she continued to impress today in Oaklawn's Martha Washington Stakes - the first step towards the Kentucky Oaks on the Arkansas trail. I knew she'd be a prohibitive favorite, but I really wanted to bet her and watch her run. She'd been a wire-to-wire winner in both her sprint victories and I wondered if today they'd try and get her to relax, or was she simply too good and too fast for these. Gates opened and she was away a bit slowly, but she quickly spurted to the front and was well in hand. When they got to the far turn she began lengthening stride and opened up without even being asked. It was the easiest of wins and I cashed my $30 WIN ticket wondering if I'd seen a legitimate Derby threat....I'll tell you this, she looks good. Very talented. Is she a super star that will make the colts afraid? Not ready to say that at this point.
Minutes later the three-year-old colts on the Florida Derby trail were in the paddock for the featured Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. I'd looked at the field carefully and wanted to try and beat the favorite, Tiz The Law. But in spite of his first loss last time out, going two turns for the first time at today's distance, I thought he just looked much, MUCH the best. He was the lone graded stakes winner in the field, having won the Grade 1 Champagne then skipped the Breeders' Cup in favor of the Gr 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. He'd had all kinds of traffic problems and the track was sloppy so I was willing to give him a pass on that. And from the interviews I'd seen and what I'd read his connections - who had campaigned Funny Cide to Kentucky Derby and Preakness victories - seemed truly excited about getting him back on the track. And I also thought they wanted to make a statement today after his last race loss. Finally, the fact that current leading Aqueduct rider Manny Franco had flown down for the day sealed the deal for me. He floated up from his 3/5 morning line to 6/5 at post time. If as good as I thought that was stealing. He broke cleanly, then Franco took him back and was in a perfect tracking position on the rail. He had to check as a couple of the cheap speeds began to back up, so he moved outside for clear running. When roused on the turn he took off like a shot and ran away as much the best, a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender.
Missed with my last two "live" bets - the finale at Gulfstream and the co-feature at Oaklawn. But I had one more bet, Bob Baffert's Thousand Words who was supposedly his top Derby prospect. He was the short-priced morning line favorite in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis. My Mom and I headed out, me with my ticket in hand for the Santa Anita race. As we approached the escalator we went by a big simulcast screen with Santa Anita's race feed. My horse was a whopping 14/1 and there was a 3/5 favorite on the board.....what????? I know it's early in the betting, but that is really out of line. I quickly opened up my xpressbet app and went to the Santa Anita race. Uh oh, I'd bet the wrong horse (typed it up wrong on my selection sheet)! I told my Mom to hang on and I dashed back inside and exchanged the ticket. WHEW! Thousand Words wasn't that impressive, but he did win to finish my day off as my ELEVENTH WIN from just nineteen selections. And a profit of nearly $65.
I often make up a "Handicapper's Selections" sheet to track how all the "pros" do compared to my selections. Check out Saturday's sheet....
Oh that's right my friends, I'm the champ!
Holy Bull Day Highlights
Sunday February 2
I closed out the week in a sharp way as I won with two of four selections on Sunday, one of whch was a "prime time" play. Missed on the first two when 7th and 9th as non-favorites. But in the 6th, Todd Pletcher sent out first time starter Eve of War. The DRF's Marty McGee commented about how strong his works were and when you compared Pletcher's stats to the win chances of the rest of them (either with first time starters or second time maidens) you could see why he would never be the 8/1 offered by the DRF morning line. The rest of the field featured win percents of 10%, 19%, 7%, 6%, 7%, 6%, 5%, and 5%. Pletcher wins at 23%....oh. And that 19% came from a third time starter who had earned a very slow (53) Beyer last time out. Eve of War quickly cleared the field under John Velazquez and opened his advantage with each and every stride. In the end he scored by 7 1/2 lengths officially while under wraps. Cashed for $40.
All I had to do was win the finale to have a winning day. And Fiber Optic did that with ease in a nw2x turf sprint at odds of 2/1. It was an excellent week.
And with the end of the month I did my stats - still on track to break last year's best-ever percentages for a winter meet!
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