March 5 - 9
"A Return To Normalcy"
If two week's ago can be remembered as "Comeback Week," then this week just might be remembered as a "Return To Normalcy" week, even if the results are only for this week! And I label it as such because in years gone by I'd have multiple selections every day and pretty much have multiple wins every day. This week, close to that kind of a week as I scored with five winners on the four non-Saturday cards and then had seven winners on Saturday. Here's how the week played out, which was highlighted by being on track on Saturday to wager on the big Tampa Bay Downs Derby card. Wednesday opened with a nine race card and I originally had four selections - which THESE days is a lot. But due to showers in the area, especially a heavy downpour thru the first couple of races we found the turf races moved to the synthetic and my top pick of the day on the grass scratched. After passing the first two events, R3 was a nw3L claiming event for cheap $8K runners. Been hard all winter to find legitimate betting interests in cheap races like this but here, Nate the Great looked solid. He had only raced nine times and had hit the board in seven of them - all against higher priced rivals. The only time he ran a Beyer below 70 came in his debut, on turf. The rest of the field would have to run a career best to beat him. How you can bet an $8K nw3L favorite to 1/5 odds is beyond me and certainly that would make it a "bad bet," but I was committed. Tracked in third to the lane, kicked clear and proved easily best to give me the first winner of the week.
I had no interest in the fourth, my top pick scratched from the off-the-turf fifth, and passed the sixt. In R7 was a one turn mile on the dirt. Freedom Road had only been out a dozen times and had gone favored in nine of them, six times as the prohibitive odds-on choice. AND he had EIGHT wins. Shipping in from Tampa, second off the bench with Irad on board. Of the two bets today HE should have been the 1/5 shot but the crowd let him go at 3/5. Rallied on the turn from near the back and was just up in the final strides.
Ran fourth in the finale to suffer my first loss of the week and then missed on both picks on Thursday, with neither hitting the board. The first thing about Friday was that it probably was the LAST of winter for us south Floridians. We woke up to a chilly 49 degrees and I very much enjoyed wearing my leather jacket!
Friday's card had nine races and seven of them were "PASS" for me, with four so weak I couldn't even recommend a runner by name. I went off at even money in the opener and ran second, but I was never in it as the 5/2 second choice drew off by nearly a dozen. My last pick of the day came in R5 which was a starter optional claimer going a mile on the grass. The first thing that caught my eye about New Rome was that with my upcoming trip to Ohio, we frequently drove to the Westland Mall on Route 40 and one of the two very small communities you had to go thru was New Rome! As for the horse today, the 5yo mare had not been seen since a race at Keeneland in April. But last winter she came here.....off a layoff....and won an entry level allowance. Followed that up with another win over the course before the loss at the tough Keeneland meet. She'd won five-of-six turf starts and I noted that the KEY would be if jockey Javier Castellano made the lead or not. Easily cleared the field, set a moderate pace while in hand and then was let loose to widen through the lane handily while paying a generous $6.80.
Saturday: Tampa Bay Derby Day
Overall, I enjoyed my Saturday quite a bit. And regardless of the quality of racing, to be on track and feel the energy of the crowd, enjoy being outside in the grandstand while watching thoroughbreds thunder down the stretch is always great. But with that said, I'd characterize the day as pretty mediocre, especially for a Saturday afternoon. I handicapped four cards: Gulfstream, the Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, and of course Tampa and all four of them were filled with several cheap races, often restricted at that, where the runners were all slow and/or bad and it was difficult to find anyone worth betting. I hate to keep referring to the past, but on a winter Saturday, even one without big stakes I'd often have at least eight if not ten bets at all the tracks I played. But today I had twenty-one, less than half the races were good enough to make a wager in my opinion. And nine of the twenty-one were just minimum bets which speaks to the lack of quality. Keith and I headed out a little after eleven am and were literally almost killed on the way there as more than two dozen wild drivers of sports Corvettes came flying down I-595 at better than 100 mph, and then they cut across the grass right in front of us on US-1 at the airport, one car missing hitting me by less than a foot. Harrowing to say the least. But we arrived at Gulfstream about half an hour before R2 at Tampa where I had my first bet. I cashed the tickets I'd taken home last week with "my girl Kimberly" and saw the tote machine light up to over $100! That's a good way to start. In the 2nd at Tampa, a cheap $8K nw2L I liked Captivating Sound enough to bet. For my money, literally, by filtering out three races you were left with four at about this level and distance and he'd been very competitive. He tracked the leaders while saving ground, found a seam on the rail, got to the front and held on. Best of all, he paid $9.60 so I cashed for almost $25 to start the day.
Over the next two hours and change I had SIX "PASS" races and lost with four others (two thirds were the best I could do in that skid). Race 5 at Tampa was the first of the stakes events, the Grade 3 Challenger Stakes and I liked Saffie Joseph's Skippylongstockings......A LOT. First of all he was 2-for-2 here in Oldsmar, including this race last winter. Second, if you filter out his Grade 1 tries you're left with the Gr 2 Woodward at Saratoga, 2nd beaten 3/4 of a length; Gr 2 Charles Town Classic - WIN: Gr 2 Oaklawn Handicap - WIN; Gr 3 Challenger - WIN; Gr 2 Charles Town Classic - WIN; Gr 3 Cornhusker 2nd beaten 3/4 of a length. And finally, he'd run last in the Grade 1 $3 Million Pegasus World Cup and finished third. The runner-up that day - who WOULD have won had he not missed the break - was Todd Pletcher's lightly raced and talented Locked. And he had romped in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last weekend. Skippy missed the break in the short four horse field (reduced to eight with scratches!), but was quickly pressing the even money second choice. Right to his neck turning for home when he floated out several paths. Got back into gear, collared the leader....dueled to the final 100 yards and edged clear without having to be all out. Cashed for over $30 on my prime time bet.
Over the next ninety minutes I had another six races I "PASSED," a scratch, and in the races I bet I finished second three times, and third in the other one. Spent a lot of time in the grandstand chatting with Keith and one thing we both thought was very noticeable was that the crowd today seemed to reflect the racing.....moderate and of a quality lacking a typical Saturday at Gulfstream. Usually you see quite a few couples and/or ladies all sporting Derby-like fashion, and others who are clearly tourists making a day of it. The crowd today, pretty much your run-of-the-mill go to the track crowd. Made for less than entertaining people watching :) Finally in the fifth at the Fair Grounds Will Take It won a second level allowance on the main track around two turns. Wasn't without "interest" as he left the gate last - WOW - like so many of my picks tend to do. But rallied to be up in time.
Another pair of "PASS" races and three misses - one a 2nd in the Gr 2 Hillsborough at Tampa before it was time for my Tampa Best Bet. It was the Grade 3 Florida Oaks for fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. As I wrote in my analysis, it's pretty unusual to see me pick a horse to win a graded stakes coming off their maiden win. WHAT? Yep, but Nitrogen had done so winning Gulfstream's Ginger Brew Stakes. Prior to that she'd been beaten a neck in her debut, then 2nd by 3/4 of a length in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine and then third beaten less than three lengths in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She tracked the leaders while in the clear through the far turn, took dead aim on the leader in the lane then lost focus as she wandered about on the course for a sixteenth of a mile. Suddenly she seemed to realize, "Oh yeah, I need to win here" and took off, mowing down the leader in the final strides. Collected 50 big ones for the prime time investment!
Less than five minutes later I had a pick in a MSW at the Fair Grounds with first time starter Darioush. I'd intended to only bet a minimum but despite never having raced he was pounded in the wagering. I upped the bet. He broke slowly, then rushed up to contest the lead through a wicked :21 and change. I'll never last I thought. But after clicking off the half mile in :45 and change while dueling he opened up and drew away impressively! WHOOO HOOOO.
The tenth and featured at Gulfstream was next, the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie for older fillies and mares going six and a half furlongs on the main track. I thought both Nic's Style and Spirit Wind were viable win candidates and would be close in the wagering for favoritism. But from the opening of betting Nic's Style was heavily favored. I checked the multi-race payoffs and found much the same. I decided to up the wager. The field broke from the gate and immediately Spirit Wind and a longshot sprinted to the front. After the opening half mile they were more than half a dozen lengths clear of Nic's Style who was the "best of the rest." Through the turn there was still a big gap and even though I was certain the emerging front runner would tire I wasn't so sure there was enough time or track for 'Nic to be up in time. But she came FLYING down the middle of the track and got to the front in the shadow of the wire! Ironically, my lone win LIVE at Gulfstream!!
Before we left we watched the Tampa Bay Derby by live feed on my phone from our seats in the grandstand. As Keith looked over the Racing Form I told him. If you're looking for a bet - you should bet Owen Almighty. Why's that he asked. Well, I said, it's simple "track logic." I bet him two back and he won for fun, but was DQ'd from his 3yo debut win in a Tampa stakes. I bet him again in the Gr 3 Davis, the prep for this and he lost in a stretch duel. So today I am NOT betting him - he's almost certain to win because I do NOT like his chances. Keith said, "makes sense to me and I did teach you about the so-called track logic." MY pick ran 2nd, to ..... yes, Owen Almighty - WOW.
Headed home with three tickets in my pocket. Ran third and seventh before it was time for my BET of the DAY in Oaklawn's Grade 3 Azeri. 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna was kicking off her 4yo season here. I'd had her from her Kentucky Oaks win (while sailing the Mediterranean!) all the way through her dynamic win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff. She broke sharply from the gate and took the lead. Multi-stakes winner Free As A Girl - who I've had many times in La-bred stakes - pressed her into the lane and got to her neck. We'll find out how fit she is here I thought. Then 'Anna opened up and drew off by a pole. WHOOOO HOOOOO - finished 7-for-21 on the day and hit all three of my big bets AND the Gulfstream feature, while enjoying the day AT the track. Good enough for me!
Because of the way my week went, I'd handicapped the Sunday card on Friday and had not thought about it since. So as first post time drew near I was somewhat surprised to see I'd found SIX races on the ten race program that I was betting. One scratched out leaving me with bets in the first two then in three of the last five. In the opener I was a late-running 2nd without threatening the 5/2 winner despite being the 4/5 favorite. And in the second race I was a good 2nd at 9/2 with a Todd Pletcher firster on the grass....but again did not threaten the 5/2 winner. After skipping the third, fourth, and fifth I had a minimum wager on Pure Class in a 7f $50K claiming event. He'd never run for a tag before - and that's often a strong win angle. But that COULD be tempered looking at some of his state-bred allowance tries which probably are equivalent - if not a little below - this open $50K tag. But he'd also run competitively in open stakes company. Through the far turn he looked to be just running evenly without ever making any kind of move, but as the field turned for home they ALL fanned wide leaving a wide-open rail for Pure Class to grind through. Got to the front at the 16th pole and held on gamely to win paying a very generous $11.20. Suddenly, despite missing with two double bets and winning with only a minimum play, I was ahead for the day!
In past years I'd watch the races intently, live and bet as the day goes on. But this winter I've found more and more that with such a small number of wagers I typically make the bets ahead of time and often just watch replays later. But today, with six, reduced to five bets I was watching live. After losing the top two I'd lost interest in following the multiple pass races so I bet the last three ahead of time. In the 9th race Praetor looked to be so much the best despite coming off an extended layoff. His most recent race was in September and he'd earned a huge 90 Beyer winning at this same one-turn mile. But he was going for Chad Brown who just doesn't seem to have his horses primed for big efforts here any more. So much so that in the pre-race analysis both the FanDuel analysts mentioned this. But what sealed the deal for me was when he'd broken his maiden, the horse he beat was Sovereignty who'd won the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth last weekend. And since he was such a short price in the program I upped the bet to a triple investment. Pressed the leader into the far turn and I thought, "now is where the typical Brown runners these days come up empty." But without jockey Tyler Gaffalione moving a muscle Praetor took command and drew off by a pole. Stakes action is next for him! It proved to put me over the top for a flat bet profit on the day when somehow I only bet the minimum instead of a double investment on the last runner (who was a close 2nd)!
Next weekend, on a pretty slow weekend the featured racing will be at Colonial Downs where it will be Virginia Derby / Oaks Day. I'll be in Ohio visiting family all week, but selections still will be posted!
Social Media this week......
Lauren Pastrana and I didn't "talk" much but nearly every day what I ever I replied to her about and/or sent to her she "liked." She did reply to our pic at the Panthers game Monday.
I asked several people if they were interested in going to the Florida Derby as I had extra tickets but I didn't find anyone. But just maybe Jillian (our "adopted" daughter) and her husband might come based on our "conversation.
Karli Barnett and I connected twice - once on a post/photo she put on FB regarding a school visit and in a rare hook-up on a FB chat we exchanged greetings!
Finally Teri Hornstein was in Washington D.C. but shared with me she was getting better and should be back on the air by the end of the month.
