December 7 - 10
Week Two of the Championship Meet was sensational for me! First, the racing week expanded from three days to four, the more racing the better! Second, I had a much more successful week locally; and third - the day at the track on Saturday was just GREAT! It was the kind of day that when I think of the winter racing season and going out to the track that I have in mind. LOTS of winners, including several on track (including BOTH featured stakes races) and a healthy profit for the day. Here's how the week played out........
Thursday.......To be fully transparent, I had a pick in the first race and didn't hit the board. But at the end of the day when I looked at the day's totals and saw I'd made only five bets I reviewed my sheet to see that I'd had SIX picks. Looked at the wagering printout on Xpressbet and there was NO BET for the opener. Can't hold that loss against me :) In the second the hot riding Paco Lopez looked to be sitting on the likely favorite and front runner Annajuliaforever. Fully expected the speedy filly to be aggressively handled out of the gate but she hesitated at the start and was away last. WOW. Quickly recovered to be stalking in third. Edged clear in the stretch and had enough left over to hold off the late runners for my first win of the week.
The third made for a great story and an excellent lesson in handicapping. As I started down the past performances for the fifth, a maiden claiming sprint for 2yo, the first horse on the page was Khozy Colby. Five losses already and looked like a runner that just didn't want to win. Slow Beyers and the fact that today she was plunging from MSW to a cheap $12.5K level was a big red flag that she obviously was for sale today. Then I went through the rest of the field. Those that had experience were slower and looked worse in ability that Khozy. The two firsters came from barns that were a combined 3-for-80 with debut runners. The lesson here - (a) every horse eventually finds a field they can beat and (b) it's all about the match-up. Khozy Colby certainly wasn't a "good bet" but I play horses that are likely winners, even one like this at a short price. She was 4/5 as they entered the gate. Broke dead last, wow again with the poor break! Shot up the rail and quickly took command. The odds flashed up and she'd been pounded down to 1/5. Took command and was easily LONG GONE.
The final winner on the day was my "best bet" of the afternoon. It was a 2yo MSW turf sprint and the biggest concern about Silent Heart was that sooooo many "go figure" longshots have been winning here early in the meet. Go with what you believe is the horse most likely to win, even at a short price or be cautious. I prefer to stick to my guns. She'd run sharply on debut in a turf sprint at Indiana and then ran a monster 75 over the sloppy main track at Churchill last time out. The Louisville track often plays like a turf course so I believed she'd transfer her form nicely. She pressed the pace to the top of the lane, edged to the front like she'd run off but was collared. That can't be good. But she had something left and she re-rallied to edge clear late. Closed the day down 3-for-5 and with a profit :)
Friday: Opening Day at Oaklawn
The bad news about today is that I was shut out at Gulfstream (0-for-5 with two close seconds) but the good news was that it was Opening Day in Hot Springs and I went 3-for-6 there including a big win in their Opening Day feature, the Advent Stakes. The first bet of the meet at Oaklawn was a pricey starter allowance which allowed runners in who'd raced for $50K. Stage Left had Beyers in his last five in the 90's, had won the King Leatherbury Stakes at Laurel and ran third in a Grade 3 in New York. Unlike at Gulfstream where you do NOT typically want to be off the pace, the Arkansas track regularly plays kindly to closers. So when Stage Left was near the back of the field early I wasn't concerned. Gradually moved up into the far turn then swooped by some 4-or-5 wide into the lane and drew off. WHOOOO HOOOO for a big start to the winter in Hot Springs!
The sixth was a "beaten" claiming sprint for a cheap $10K and you had to figure that Royal Meghan was going to walk with this IF she was right. She'd been claimed by David Jacobson for $32K and now she was plunging in class. With the big purse structure here I figured that he had done the math and believed a win would earn him $18K, the claim if it happened another $10K so they would almost break even....and that didn't count the purse money she'd earned since the claim. Tracked the leaders along the rail to the top of the lane, and then the rider patiently waited for the rail to open up. When it did he shot through and drew off!
The feature today was the $150K Advent Stakes for two-year-olds. That purse is double what a listed event has at the "prestigious" Gulfstream Championship Meet. And worth noting that a 2yo maiden special race here carries a purse of $115K - as compared to a $70K purse at Gulfstream! Three of the four speed figures Valentine Candy had earned for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen were far faster than anything else on the field. I thought it was fair to toss the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga in his first try vs. winners. Pressed the leaders four deep through the turn under confident handling and when turned loose he opened up by nearly a pole. Won impressively while completely geared down. A big "WOW" for that run.
Saturday: Juvenile Stakes Day at Gulfstream
Louisiana Champions Day
You'd never have convinced me after the first two hours at Gulfstream Saturday that I was going to have a big day. I'd have been hard pressed to believe I'd have a "good" day and come close to breaking even. Why? The first five races produced a short priced winner in New York and four odds-on losers who were all caught at the wire by price horses. I kept telling myself that (a) enjoy being here and (b) you never know how the day MIGHT turn out. So I cashed my ticket on Silo Ridge in the Aqueduct opener and hoped for better.
Finally began to get on the right track when in the 4th at Tampa - a rich conditioned allowance event with an optional tag of $100K pitted stakes placed Dreaming of Snow against only one other stakes placed foe. The two of then were daylight clear of the other through the lane and I won without ever really being worried. Came right back in the first of the Louisiana Champions Day stakes, this one a starter for the fillies. In the opener I'd had the prohibitive favorite and he was multiple lengths clear turning into the long Fair Grounds stretch, only to be caught on the wire. So when Bootsie's Galaxy opened up I didn't count my money until she'd crossed the line a decisive winner.
The third at Oaklawn was the kind of race that "value players" would NEVER cash a ticket on. And to be fair, I think at best I barely break even with this kind of bet. But for me, it's about being right more than not and so the class plunging Therideofalifetime was my bet. He'd been highly considered enough as a 3yo to be just 6/1 in a Grade 1 Arlington Million Day stakes race. Fell all the way to a "beaten" $7.5K claimer where he drew off by a pole at 1/5. Now in here after five non-winning starts but with Beyers good enough to win. Right to the front out of the gate and took pressure all the way through the turn. I was thinking, "now we'll find out what he's made of" as heads turned for home. A flick of the wrists and he was long, LONG gone. Cantered home as much the best for my four win on the day!
Got my first win of the day LIVE at Gulfstream and in the first of the stakes events in the Wait A While going seven and a half furlongs over the new turf course for 2yo fillies. Christophe Clement has long been known for doing excellent work with fillies and mares on the grass and Ozara looked like the next rising star in the barn. She won on debut in a two-turn turf route at Saratoga where only the best juveniles show up. Then was a good fourth vs. winners for the first time in Woodbine's Grade 1 Natalma. Came back to be a just-miss second in the Chelsey Flower in New York. Irad Ortiz took the call. Sat patiently behind the early leaders to the stretch......got into the clear and accelerated to a short lead with a little less than a furlong left to go and drove home. As I headed down the stairs of the grandstand it occurred to me that often here at Gulfstream Clement's runners are handled by his son Miguel. That's significant because it wasn't too long ago that he married hottie handicapper and social media gal-pal Acacia Courtney. I've been so bummed since she left So Fla to work for NYRA on the "America's Day At The Races" weekly broadcasts. But as I was thinking this, I also recalled seeing that Acacia had posted on social media recently that she was "done for the year" in NY. Could it be that this was because she was in sunny So Fla with her husband for the holidays? I hustled over to the winner's circle and there she was. Always so pretty and such a good handicapper - what more could a guy who loves racing ask for? Sure enough Miguel was there and they posed with Ozara for the photo. I took the picture and immediately sent it to Acacia with a note that I was there and had bet the filly. Wasn't too long there after that she messaged me back saying it was a fun day, and thanking me for the photo! One of the best stories of the day!
The sixth at Tampa was, I thought, one of the most certain winners of the day as graded stakes winner Dean Delivers was facing restricted rivals in Tampa's Marion County Stakes. Blistered the opening quarter and half mile while on a daylight lead. Looked long gone at the 16th pole but it was a head-bobbing finish on the wire. Wasn't sure and initially thought I'd lost. The slow motion replay came up and I wasn't sure either way. The camera showed Dean's Deliver with the graphic listing him on top. Whew, that was close I was thinking when the graphic disappeared and the camera swung to the other horse with a new graphic - second. THAT doesn't happen often that they not only show but list the wrong winner. I share this story because after taking the big bet loss at a short price I came right back with a "prime time" bet on Touchuponastar in the Louisiana Champions Day Classic. That would be "impressive" enough but he's a confirmed front runner, and those kind don't often win in New Orleans, especially going a mile and an eighth. But that was the bet! Right to the front and never in doubt! WHOOOO HOOOO - my seventh winner and third stakes win :)
Won my second race in a row locally as I stood along the rail to watch Inveigled draw off in a 2yo entry level one-turn mile event at Gulfstream. He'd been 5/1 early in the betting but was bet down to 3/2 by post time and ran to his odds.
So after having a lot of confidence in the first stakes event at Tampa I gave just a slight edge to Bluefield to win the filly stake, the City of Ocala Stakes. Her five figures in 2023 were more than good enough to win but she has single win. Just the minimum. Now the "story" here is two-fold. First, unlike the first Tampa stakes, it was MY pick that was closing down the front runner and she got there JUST in time. But the second part of the story is that at this point in the day the races were coming one right after the other. I'd made a series of bets with "my Kimberly" the teller who's twin Karen works alongside her; then as post time was approaching and those races were not yet official I had to bet the next few. So Bluefield crosses the line first and I go to get my ticket out to take a photo of it and......
Yes, I'd bet her TWICE - whooo hoooo I'll take the nearly $30 from my "mistaken" double investment LOL. The Tampa race had no sooner gone official than they were off in the fifth at Oaklawn, a MSW for 2yo. Silver Rose had run "paired" Beyers of 71 and 72 in her two starts and those were a pole faster than the rest of the figures on the page. The Brad Cox filly sat off the pace and got up in the final strides to win.
One of the most exciting races came up next, in Oaklawn's 7th, the featured Ring The Bell Stakes. Tejano Twist looked to lay over this field on paper. In his last ten starts he'd won FIVE and finished behind two-time Breeders' Cup champion Cody's Wish and twice behind multiple stakes winner Gunite. He was my Oaklawn BEST Bet. But as they left the gate in this six furlong dash he quickly was not only last, dead last but well back and eventually was off the television screen. OK, so Oaklawn plays to closers but really? As the field approached the far turn he appeared on the edge of the screen and began to quickly pick off horses. Swung into the clear turning for home about seven wide under a full head of steam and blew by to draw off by more than a pole. OH MY that was impressive! And the "prime time" bet allowed me to cash for over $40.
The finale at the Big A in New York provided a nice price when Scarlet's Dream ran down a determined front runner and paid $7.50 so I cashed for close to $40. I made the rest of my bets as I was leaving after the Gulfstream finale, the second of the stakes races. And I made a financial decision. With the "big loss" in the Tampa stakes I thought I'd come back to be close to even if not maybe a little ahead. And I thought about two of my final bets. The first at Tampa in their finale was a MSW on the turf where I liked a Chad Brown filly. Last week the circumstances were identical and I went "all in" with a prime time bet only to see her disappoint in fourth. I planned to do the same today but now I'm thinking I might want to cut back a bit. Also, in the Gulfstream finale and feature I'd made Todd Pletcher's Noted my BEST and planned to bet $30. Neither of the three public handicappers had him on top, one didn't even have him in the top three.....and with last week's races producing 52% double digit winners - and there'd been four already today......I thought maybe I should cut back here as well. I calculated that if I went from $20 to $15 at Tampa and $30 to $20 here I'd only lose as a maximum $35 instead of $50 which would probably not make as big a dent in the bottom line for the day; and if they won the investment was still "added money." At Tampa Sacred Image was well back to the turn but was flying into the turn, but went so wide she lost multiple lengths. Still, in the final furlong she hit another gear and was up in time. I cashed for nearly $60but at the 5/2 price I'd have cashed for almost $75.
I was ok with my decision thinking of the big picture but it did occur to me that I should remember, which I often ignore, I AM as good or better than most handicappers and I should trust my judgement. In New York I got Scarlet's Dream paid a nice $7.50 allowing me to cash for almost $40 heading into the big finale at Gulfstream.
I truly was puzzled why the three public handicappers were NOT on board with Pletcher's 2yo colt Noted. He'd won impressively on turf and then came back to win a Monmouth allowance on the main track where he beat Dornach, who won the Grade 2 Remsen last weekend at Aqueduct. Back to the grass to finish a nose from the winner in Keeneland's Grade 2 Bourbon. Can't blame the connections in seeing if the colt was as good on dirt when trying the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile on dirt. Drew wide and was of no impact. So here he was returning to the grass with Irad Ortiz up. I thought he'd run big and it seemed the opinion of the GP analysts that he'd bounce out of that dirt try. Tracked the leaders saving ground through the turn, split horses and was ready to roll but had to briefly check behind runners. That's not good. Made a quick right had turn and moved three paths out nimbly into the clear, accelerated and was JUST up in time! WHOOOOO HOOOOO - how exciting and I'm right, you all are WRONG :)
Left for home and cashed one last ticket in the Louisiana Champions Ladies' Sprint when Ova Charged barely lasted to become a three-time winner of this stakes. For the day I cashed on a remarkable 14 of 31, for well over 40% winners with a flat bet profit of over $60!
Sunday
Typically on a Wed, Thur, Fri, or Sun at Gulfstream I would have four, maybe six bets. But on the Sunday card I had NINE listed. After having such a great Saturday I was a little leery that maybe this would be one of those weekends where I have a big Saturday and then on Sunday give a lot of it back. More than half the Sunday plays I was only doing the minimum so it wasn't like I had a great deal of confidence. But then I thought, "NO.....you picked them, bet them." And it paid off! I won with three of the first six and then Kim and left to go out to dinner. Got back and pulled up the replays of the final two races.......WIN and WIN! What a way to finish the week, five-for-eight and a solid profit.
The results at Gulfstream for the week still produced ten longshots for the week, but that's far fewer than last week. And for the week I had a remarkable 45% winners. That would be a "WOW" under any circumstances, but you'll recall on the Friday card I was shutout losing all five selections. So to hit at this rate of success was exceptional. The "plan" is to head out again Saturday before we leave for Orlando on Sunday afternoon for our long-awaited Disney Christmas cruise. The weather is supposed to be rainy/stormy and there are NOT any big stakes races .... so we'll see.
Social Media...........
A relatively slow social media week for interactions with my online pals. One of the things that drew me in originally to following Lauren Pastrana and becoming her social media friend - and the same for former CBS gal Karli Barnett - is how she is not afraid to show who she really is on air. Watching the Sunday morning news (see below, Teri Hornstein) a commercial ran for sharing your holiday pics and stories that featured Lauren talking about her childhood Christmas morning, with photos of her as a little girl. I responded to which she reacted. Earlier in the week when Kim and I were featured on the Jumbotron at the Panthers game I shared that with Lauren and she "liked" it.
Last week Teri Hornstein was not the anchor on the weekend news because she was in London.....getting engaged. Good for her :) This week she was back and I reached out to her on both Twitter and Facebook and not only got reactions but a reply to both :)
The aforementioned Karli posted a photo of her Christmas tree on social media and I commented while sharing a photo of our tree. She liked it and replied. Then on Saturday, for the first time in almost a month I was able to catch some of Karli's live FB chat. She seemed genuinely happy to see me pop on - and in my opinion I got a bigger smile than the others who signed on when I did :) - but she replied back to both my comment about where I'd taken Kim to dinner and to Kim's famous peanut butter balls!
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