Week 9

 January 25 - 29

Pegasus World Cup Week

Mixed reactions to the week if I'm being honest.  Loved going out for the day on Wednesday with my Mom & sister who are visiting from Ohio for the week.  Hit the BET of the Week that day; and another runner to finish 2-for-6 on the day.  But I also made some bets at Tampa "just for fun" and had one winner with multiple 2nd place finishes.  Then on the big day I hit for 33% winners, but the one track I wasn't able to bet them (see story below) and I was shut out at Gulfstream.  So here's how the week played out.  I made reservations at the Ten Palms Restaurant for the three of us to have lunch while overlooking the track.  And I promptly hit the winner in the first race.  Missed on the next four before watching Todd Pletcher's Munny's Gold run away as easy as you please in what turned out to be the Gulfstream BEST Bet of the Week.

Thursday I tentatively had five selections.  Turned out to be just two, and the second of them - Bill Mott's White Frost ran big, and at a nice price to score on the turf.  Look for this one down the road in stakes company.

Friday I didn't hit a single winner, and as it turned out, didn't have a winner on Saturday, Pegasus Day at Gulfstream either.

First post for the Pegasus Day card was at 10:50 so Keith and I headed out and arrived there a little after 10 am.  Got our seats and were set up, ready to roll by 10:30 am.  I went to make my first two bets with "my girl, twin Kimberly (of the Kimberly-Karen duo)" and then went into the breezeway to check for scratches for the rest of the day.  Because of the big day of stakes races locally I decided to play only two other tracks, both of which had multiple stakes on their card.  First, I handicapped Oaklawn Park where the feature was the Derby prep, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes.  And then I saw that Sam Houston Park - obviously in Houston, Texas - had their "Houston Racing Festival" today with multiple stakes races.  Oaklawn doesn't have a turf course, so typically there are very few scratches, and today none of my picks were out.  So I went to get the scratches for Sam Houston (SHP) and there wasn't a listing in the "S" on the Xpressbet list of tracks.  That's odd.....opened the Twin Spires app and also, no SHP listing.  Checked both again and then went to the track website....yes, the big card WAS today.  So I went inside to my girl Kimberly and asked.  She looked on her track list and she said "We're not taking bets for their card, you'll have to bet online."  So I told her they weren't available online either.  Come to find out the only way to bet them, currently is to be on track there, or use THEIR track app.  I am counting the 3-for-4 day with a profit of nearly $50 on my records, but obviously didn't actually see them, only viewed the charts.  WOW.  Through the FIRST EIGHT races at Gulfstream I had two third place finishes - that was it.  The winners paid $18.20, $25.20, $12.40, $7.80, $27.20, $4.60, $13.20, and $7.20.  That's five of eight in double digit payoffs and two of them over $20.  I wondered how I missed the $27.20 winner which was a Todd Pletcher horse with Irad Ortiz on board.  But when looking back on him - it was a turf race and he'd never been on turf, never run well, and was a good ten points slower than the favorite who had been a just-miss third in a Grade 3 race, now dropping into allowance company.  During that span I DID cash one ticket in the Oaklawn opener.  Over the next span of six races - four at Gulfstream and two at Oaklawn I cashed twice, but one of those was a "Money Back" promotion when I made the bet on Chad Brown's Shantisara in the Grade 3 Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf online and she ran 2nd.

Bennykayandsuzytoo wires the Oaklawn opener

Finally "cash" a ticket at Gulfstream....wow

But the one actual winner I had kicked off the best span of the day.  The seventh at Oaklawn was a Maiden Special for 3yo and none of the firsters came from a barn that was particularly good with those.  The only one with experience that appealed was a standout..... Easy Action had debuted with a best-of-the-rest second with a sharp 76 Beyer.  Off the layoff with a "good" fourth earning a 66 Beyer before running a sharp second again last time out with another 76.  Looked easily best.  It was difficult to see the runners through the far turn in the darkness and rain but swinging for home Easy Action edged clear for the victory.

After being photo'd out of getting my money back in the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf when I took the 5yo mare Lady Speightspeare and she was 4th, just a head out of third, I had my first sharp stakes winner in Oaklawn's King Cotton Stakes.  I noted that I wouldn't be shocked if a couple others won, Steve Asmussen's Gunnite looked way too good for these.  If you toss the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile when fourth last time out, he'd posted four straight triple digit Beyers with three wins and a just miss 2nd to multiple Grade 1 winner Jack Christopher.  Pressed the pace to the turn, took over willingly and drove home clear by multiple lengths in a quick 1:08 and change.

Then it was time for the big one.  And as I told Keith and said in my online analysis, you could make a case for .... and against .....everyone in the field.  I opted for Bob Baffert's Defunded who'd won back to back graded stakes and had Irad Ortiz on board today, and he'd already won four races on the card.  Pressed the longhot leader to the top of the stretch and was making a winning move turning for home.  Prior to the race my son Jeff called and asked who I liked, then said, "What about Art Collector?"  I told him that (a) anyone could win, (b) top jockey / regular rider Luis Saez had jumped off to ride a 20/1 longshot, and (c) he was a confirmed "need-to-lead" type who'd never get the front.  As Defunded stuck his nose in front another horse came to him....who's that, oh....just Art Collector, I KNOW he's not a stretch kick kind of horse.....then he blew by to win by nearly half a dozen lengths.  Go figure.  But Defunded was 2nd best so I got my money back.

Our seats were right on the finish line so we had a great view of all the action, and all the nationally televised shots were right in front of us.  Keith did make it into one shot at the end of the telecast but as soon as Art Collector crossed the line I told him I was going inside because post time for the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn was minutes away and my BEST BET of the Day was running.  In fact in my analysis I introduced the day by saying my two best bets were out of town and NOT at Gulfstream.  Gunnite being the first and in here, Arabian Knight.  He was a $3.5 Million colt who'd debuted for Bob Baffert on Breeders' Cup Saturday (when we were in Antarctica) and won for fun.  Today he was going from that 7f maiden win to the mile and a sixteenth Grade 3 Southwest and facing winners, some of whom had already won stakes events.  But he looks really special to me.  Right to the front and rated very kindly for Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.  When they came to him at the top of the lane he responded when asked to open up and ran off as MUCH the best.  On to the next Derby prep!

We left for home right after that and surprisingly, unlike last year the traffic was light and easy to escape Gulfstream.  I had one last race to watch when we arrived home and I won that Maiden Special finale, run largely in the dark, at Oaklawn to make my day in Hot Springs a profitable 5-for-7!  Even "better" was, when I made my last series of bets with "Kimberly" I gave her $100 for the bets.  The tickets I carried home will see me collect $119.00 :)

On Sunday the lone winner I had was a Pletcher first time starter who just might be Gulfstream Park Oaks good.  Bandita WALKED with her debut, under wraps by nearly ten lengths.  A "WOW" performance.  But with the week producing another 40% double-digit winners and nearly 20% of those paying $20 or more, I may shift my handicapping for several days a week to Oaklawn.  It's a serious consideration.

Pegasus Week Highlights

Social Media this week.....

Tuned into the CBS-4 Evening News on Monday and "my girl" Lauren Pastrana wasn't there.  But when she returned on Tuesday I messaged her a "welcome back" and she replied back to me, while on the air within twenty minutes :)

Tuesday Lauren posted an open-ended question on Twitter; she used to do this more frequently, and in fact it's how we first hooked up on social media.  So, of course I replied.  She wrote back to me and then I responded back to her.

Then when I tuned in for the news, she wasn't on the air again.  So I reached out and asked if she was working on a story or had another day off; she said she had been doing an interview for a story and would be back on the air for the 7 pm broadcast.  She "liked" my "Whooo hoooo" for her being on the air.

After Karli Barnett had signed off from the CBS-4 gig I messaged her that (a) I'd still be following her and (b) that I'd always think of her when watching TV because above our big-screen TV is a blow up photo from Antarctica that we did largely because she'd suggested doing that when we were on a Facebook chat live.  And she replied back to me this week.

On Thursday Lauren was on the evening broadcast in a green outfit.  More than once I've remarked, to her, how good she looks in green.  So I snapped a pic and sent it to her, emphasizing how good she looked.  She replied back....while on the air in less than ten minutes!

While at the Pegasus on Saturday I sent my gal-pal Kimmy a pic and told her that if she still had her house that had been just minutes from the track I'd be dropping by for dinner.  She replied back and told me she wished she still lived there.....me too :(

Finally, I sent a similar photo as the one to Kimmy to Karli and told her SHE should be there with all the other celebrities.  She was appreciative of the shout-out!

Week 8

January 18 - 22 

The highlight racing card this weekend would be from New Orleans where they would be hosting the "Road To The Derby" Day with the first serious preps for the Kentucky Oaks & Derby on a card filled with 3yo maiden races and six big stakes races.  Laurel was running their "Winter Carnival" with five stakes races so I was playing there.  For the first time this winter Keith and I would be on track so obviously I'd be playing the local card.  And I added in Aqueduct, Tampa, and Oaklawn to make it a full day of racing.  But first, being back in South Florida I was back to playing the races on all the live racing days.  And this was the first week where four the week I did very well, the kind of numbers I am used to getting with wins and money returned.  Here's how the week played out.

I had a selection in the first on Wednesday but it was scratched.  Passed two races and then saw my 2/5 choice in the 3rd run third.  The fourth was a starter optional claiming event going five and a half furlongs on the synthetic surface for three-year-olds.  The claiming price to get in was $35K and the only one who'd run FOR that price and run well was Extendo.  He'd buried $35K maidens before facing $75K 2-lifetime foes when taking on first time winners.  Back down in class he went right to the front and with each 16th of a mile the margin grew larger and larger.  Much the best at 9/5.

Right back in the next where it was a beaten claiming event on the turf.  Grand Journey was a "Horse for the Course" with SIX wins from fourteen starts over the local turf.  Claiming out of three of his last five starts he had the best figures on the page.  Was wide throughout and was five wide into the lane.  Dueled the length of the stretch and got the bob - I knew it was a photo but I seriously was pretty sure I'd won the race.  Again at 9/5 but this bet was doubled so I cashed for almost $20.

I noted in my analysis that key angle may be how Extendo ran.  Why?  Because trainer Jose D'Angelo has good numbers in almost every category, BUT with first time Lasix, like with Extendo he was a mere 1-for-24.  Ouch.  Coincidence?  Extendo won for fun.  Shez Speightful had seen nothing but MSW rivals and was dropping into an optional claiming event here.  The betting was all over the place and I was delighted that she left the gate at 7/2.  Stalked the pace into the lane, was briefly steadied and then bulled her way through to the front and clear to the wire.  Paid $9 and I cashed for more than $20 despite being a minimum bet.  The last bet of the day mirrored the first - a triple investment, on an odds-on favorite who looked "oh-so-obvious" only to see them fail to score.  But in spite of missing on the two "big bets" I hit three of five and made money :)

Thursday I had four picks - sixth at even money (wow) then three straight fourth place finishes to finish the day winless.  Came right back on Friday and had two winners.  Howe Street looked easily best in a maiden event and just walked with it.  Then Tyler Gaffalione got his career 2000th win when he wire to wire with Megacity - who was a big 4/1 price and allowed me to have a big winning day!

Howe Street EASILY In The 4th

Megacity right to the front, steals it while paying a very generous $10 - Cash for $50!

Saturday:  Road To The Derby Day

We headed out to the races around 11 am and didn't get home until nearly 6 pm - just in time to watch the Florida Panthers continue their winning ways by beating a good Minnesota Wild team 5-3.  I knew that I had tickets in my bankroll from when I'd last been at Gulfstream in early December.  I did NOT know how many tickets, nor did I have any idea how much they were worth.  So the first thing I did once we got to the track was go to "the twins" and cash out my tickets.  I was delighted to find that I had nearly $100 in winnings to start the day!  That made for a good photo op and intro to the highlight video of the day's racing.  I passed the GP opener and then in the Laurel opener Lamarvelous was hovering around 6/5 favoritism throughout the betting.  But once the approached the gate he floated all the way up to 2/1 odds.  Pressed while in third to the turn, took the lead easily and opened up to clear off to the wire.  

My choice in the second at GP scratched and I lost the opener at the FG before it was time for Race 3 at Gulfstream where Todd Pletcher was sending out Santorini in a maiden event on the turf.  He was new to the Pletcher barn and those kind, first time for the Hall of Fame trainer have a high success rate.  That he'd been a flying second, beaten a neck last time out in a synthetic sprint at Turfway said to me that he probably (a) would like the turf and (b) appreciate added ground.  The longshot front runner opened up by nine or ten through insanely quick fractions while Irad Ortiz sat patiently in second.  Collared the leader on the turn and drew off under confident handling.  

Right back at Aqueduct in a cheap maiden claimer.  And while the field was subpar (at best), Mama's Gold looked like a Breeders' Cup Stakes winner compared to the rest and well deserving of the 7/5 morning line price.  Without even being asked to run he was easily on the lead by daylight.  Turned for home and again, with the rider remaining motionless he widened by such a margin that the rest of the field was completely out of the TV picture as he approached the stretch.  Didn't make a lot of money, but I was happy to be right and cashing a ticket.

I then started a skid that lasted for an hour and 45 minutes over the span of eleven races.  I won one and only one....the other ten were all 2nd and 3rd place finishes at short odds:  6/5, 3/5, 1/1, 9/5, 7/2, 2/5, 6/1, 2/1, 2/1, and 5/2.  Several I was in hand, chasing a longshot leader, came to them in the lane and couldn't get by.  A few I had the lead, but could I hold on....oh no.  The "worst" of the stories over this span came in Gulfstream's 6th race.  I decided to gamble on a $0.50 Pick-3 because I thought I had the winners in a collection of runners but didn't feel strongly about any of them.  As the went into the gate for the sixth at Gulfstream, the featured Sunshine Millions Turf, in the six horse field I had all three of the top betting choices.  Ran 3rd, 4th, and 5th.  WOW.  But then in the second leg I won at a big 7/1 price and through the lane in the final leg two of my horses dueled to a photo finish at 9/1 and 7/1.  Now granted the upset winner in the first leg was 7/1 but the $0.50 Pick-3 paid $493.  Had one of mine scored in that first leg I easily would have hit for over $200.  You gotta love the races.  The lone win through this long span of near-winners came in the 2nd at Oaklawn where Peace Dog drew off late.  The "consolation" in this race was I'd upped the bet so I cashed for over $20 instead of around $10.

Got back on track, finally, in the fourth of the Laurel added money events in the Fire Plug Stakes.  Factor It In had won the Dave's Friend Stakes in December going wire to wire.  But what made me like him today was that he had previously shown the ability to rate and pass horses.  Tracked the pace in third while in the clear to the top of the stretch then blew by EASILY to score for my first stakes winner of the day.

Missed at Oaklawn and at the Fair Grounds before it was time for the second leg of the Pick-3 which I missed.  I preferred Prefect in this nw3L route on the poly track.  He was a mediocre 2-for-19 for his career but had been running against FAR better.  Had MIGUEEELLLLL Vasquez in the irons.  Looked good, ready to pounce into the lane and got to the front, but was immediately confronted by another runner.  That one had a head in front but Vasquez would not give up....heads up and down to the wire, PHOTO FINISH.  But I honestly thought I had it.  And at a big 7/1 price I did.  Man, if I'd just gone $10 to win I'd have had a big profit for the day, but still, for the minimum bet I'd had a great thrill and cashed for more than $40.  

Right back in the 7th at Aqueduct when Who Hoo That's Me was grinding away through the lane and was just JUST up in the shadow of the wire - again with the minimum.  Missed three in a row (a 2nd, a 3rd, and a fading 10th before going on the "big run" of the day.....

Note the white glove - and watch my video reaction below :)

It started with my New York BEST Bet of the day in their featured stakes, the Interborough going seven furlongs.  As I saw it the ONLY thing NOT to like about Betsy Blue was she was going to be a short price.  She loved the demanding seven panels (5/3-1-1) and she loved running at the Big A (11/7-1-1).  She could press the leader, stalk, or come from off the pace.  Today she sat fifth of five to the far turn, the rider in no hurry to make a move.  At the top of the lane, just as I was about to get a little uncomfortable he asked and she kicked into gear.  It looked to me with a furlong to go she WOULD get there but she wasn't flying by rivals.  Then at the 16th pole she found a whole other gear and easily opened up.  Again, didn't make a lot of money but put a big bet down to demonstrate my confidence and cashed the ticket.  

Four minutes later they were in the gate at Laurel for the Spectacular Bid Stakes for 3yo going six furlongs.  I had bet Prince of Jericho last time out and he'd disappointed as the favorite, but on paper he just looked way better than the rest of these.  Tracked the leaders in fourth to the turn, swooped by through the turn and powered home as clearly the best in the field.....two stakes wins in a row!  

Got outside in time for as the horses approached the gate in the 9th at Gulfstream where Candy Man Rocket was my BET of the Day.  He'd won here on debut for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and came right back to win Tampa's Grade 3 Sam Davis Stakes.  He'd been up and down after that until returning here a month ago to win again.  And in BOTH Gulfstream tries he ran a big figure AND ran with the anti-diuretic medication Lasix, which he was on today.  As the field ran through the far turn it was oh so obvious that he was under a tight hold and was screaming out to run.  When let loosed he took off and widened through the lane handily without ever being asked.  Cashed for $60 for my third big win in a row!

As soon as the prices came up I went back inside the simulcast area and watched Hot and Sultry split horses at the top of the lane, duel through the stretch and edge clear to win Oaklawn's featured stakes, the American Beauty.

We headed for home right after that with no more live bets.   I had six bets left to watch replays of.  Ran third twice with the first two before winning the 11th at Gulfstream with Cadet Corps under Tyler G on the turf.  Rand 2nd at odds on in back-to-back stakes - on at Oaklawn (3/5) and one at the Fair Grounds (4/5).  Then a fading fifth as the 6/5 favorite at the Fair Grounds.  The final race on my sheet was the national feature of the day, the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes for 3yo on the Derby Trail in New Orleans.  Brad Cox's 3yo had won Churchill's Grade 3 Kentucky Jockey Club and I was sure that Instant Coffee was the reason Gulfstream's leading rider, Luis Saez had come here today.  Sat well off the pace to the stretch then roared by the field like they were standing still.  Cashed my FOURTEENTH ticket of the day!

Finished at 40% and with a clear profit and had a GREAT DAY full of stories and thrilling races - can't ask for more....and the weather was great as well.

Saturday Jan 22 Racing Highlights

Sunday my filly, Balletic, was running in the opener.  I was very surprised to have been informed about a week ago that she'd be running in a five furlong turf sprint.  When I first invested in her the bio on her said she appeared to be a filly who would thrive going two turns on the dirt and maybe, just maybe she'd be a Kentucky Oaks kind of filly.  When she debuted this fall and Kim and I were there I was not totally surprised to see her sprinting on the dirt at six furlongs and thought that was a stepping stone to perhaps a one-turn mile next time out.  She came with a good late run and that made me think even more so that this would be the path.  Trainer Todd Pletcher was not happy with her next two works and waited until she turned three then entered here.....if she's a dirt router, why are we sprinting on the grass?  She broke a step slow but was right there tracking the dueling leaders.  Split rivals at the top of the lane with dead aim on the front runner, but she'd had it too easy on the front end and we were second best again.  I made all six of my bets for the day and after this race, Keith and I headed home.  While we were driving my choice in the second race (in a field reduced to just three runners) - Carabinero - walked with it paying $3.  In the third I had another Pletcher maiden, on the turf going two turns.  Set the pace at 6/5 before fading through the final furlong to be fourth.  Skipped the fourth, then in the fifth I ran second in another maiden event going a one-turn mile at 2/1/  But I then scored back-to-back wins to guarantee a fourth winning day on the week.  In the seventh Psychedelic Shack was sprinting five furlongs on the all-weather in a 3-lifetime claiming event.  Last time out she'd dueled for a big $50K open tag - today, plunging to $12.5K in restricted company.  AND her fractions last time looked like she would be all alone on the front end, even with the big "FOR SALE" sign indicating she was NOT as good as her previous price tags.  Right to the front and never in danger.  Finished the day with a win in the 8th, the featured event being a five furlong turf spring under conditioned allowance restrictions.  Todd Pletcher's Meetmeinkingston was GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti's BEST Bet on the basis that he looked loose on the lead.  That's what I liked and I had a triple investment on him.  Right to the front and GONE.  Missed with a minimum bet in the ninth to close the day 3-for-6 with a profit on the day. 

Carabinero MUCH Too Good In The 3rd

Psychedelic Shack Runs Them Off Their Feet In The 7th

Meetmeinkingston RUNS AWAY For My 3rd Win To Seal A Good Day!

Social Media Highlights

Early in the week my "adopted daughter," Jillian posted family pics taken by a professional.  Then she added a photo where she noted that when a professional photographer wants to take a picture of just "the mommy" you should do it.  She's just an exceptionally attractive gal and the photo was an excellent one!

I had sent pictures from Iceland to my "gal-pal" CBS-4 Weekend Anchor Karli Barnett but had not heard anything for almost a week.  Then suddenly on Wednesday evening my phone lit up and she had just got around to seeing them - complimented my photography skills :)

When I thanked Karli for the compliment a couple days later she "loved" the comment.  It's just the thought that at some point, here's this TV personality and she was thinking of me that makes this of interest to me.

While at the races I sent a photo of me with my winnings to my gal-pal, favorite former student Kimmy because her former house is less than a mile from there.  She reacted and replied.  Karli Barnett posted late Saturday that her weekly chat would be moving to Sunday so I logged on when she appeared online.  Right away when she commented, "I'm going to wait for a few more people get on before I give you guys a big announcement about my personal life," I had a bad feeling.  Sure enough, she told us all that the Sunday 11pm broadcast would be her final on air appearance in So Fla as she was moving close to her parents in Georgia.  She's seemed to be having "issues" since Christmas and she's more than once mentioned the importance of "health" and "family" and that she had had some struggles.  Feel bad for the girl.  She reacted to several of my comments on the chat - she's just so sweet - and again remarked about how much she appreciated my sharing photos and videos from my travels.  She also reacted to my FB post (see below).  I put together a very short video of the comments we exchanged.  At least I'll still be able to "follow" her online through FB and Twitter and maybe she'll return to weekly chats once she's back on her feet so to speak.

Karli's Final Chat