Florida Derby Week
Closing Week of the Winter Season
It's always the highlight of the winter racing season to spend the final Saturday of the meet in our box seats on the finish line with friends & family enjoying the Derby Day program. Throughout the week I was working on putting together a program for all our guests with detailed analysis of the races, including my selections, as well as some perspective on the day and the racing at Gulfstream. But along the way we had three final days of week-day action. Like most days this winter Wednesday saw me only have three selections and one of those was conditional. Once scratches came out I lost one of the bets, so I was down to just a pair of races, the second of which dependent on a move from the turf to the all-weather. In R5, a starter-optional claiming event going a one-turn mile I liked Freedom Road. In twenty-four career starts he'd won a remarkable twelve races, including at this level. Sure to be the favorite he was when sent off as the 3/5 choice. Dueled between runners through the turn, edged to the front and held on to the wire for the victory. In the second race I had a bet on Pet Mat ran second at 8/5 in a nw2L synthetic route.
Thursday I was able to find four races, of the nine on the program, that were worthy of a wager. But again, like most week days only one resulted in a win. In R5 it was a 6f sprint under entry level allowance conditions for 3yo. It was really hard to look past Sorcerer's Silver who had earned a huge 84 Beyer when beating his MSW rivals last time out. And that he was facing state-breds here meant he held an even bigger edge. I initially only wanted to risk a double investment but he was hammered at the windows and was a prohibitive favorite in all the multi-race pools so I went "all in" for a PRIME TIME bet. Pressed the front runner into the turn, took over without the rider moving a muscle and drew off in impressive fashion. Look for him in a listed stakes event next time out.
Friday turned out to be a remarkable day.....and that's one of the great things I enjoy so much about the racing game - you just never know when you're going to have a really good day. Sometimes it's on a big stakes day and sometimes it's on a Friday afternoon where you only have five selections as I did today. As you can imagine, five bets on a week day card was a lot this winter, but I felt comfortable enough to make two of the five added money investments. The day opened with back-to-back maiden claiming events for 3yo and I liked someone in both. Noble Prince was the lone class dropper in the opener, a $12.5K seven furlong sprint. The most "interesting" thing to me was that the DRF's Mike Welsch didn't list him in his top three. As I noted, I get it everyone has an opinion at the races, but I believe if you're PAID to be a PUBLIC handicapper you should at least offer the likely favorite with an opinion in your analysis. Sent off as the prohibitive 1-2 favorite (with uneducated fans wondering what was happening thanks to Welsch's non-advice) he ran away through the lane as a decisive winner. In the second, Aneganda was making his second start off the layoff after a barn change to Mike Maker. He was dropping out of MSW company in for a tag off a troubled start last time. The crowd let him go at better than 3/1 and he rallied from near the back in this turf route and edged clear late allowing me to collect over $20 on a second minimum bet!
The fourth race today was my best piece of handicapping, and again it's one of "those things" about handicapping where sometimes you appear to be the only one to see what's so "obvious." Check out the past performances above on my choice, Extendo. Note the three highlighted items, because today's 4th was a five furlong SYNTHETIC sprint. How do you NOT notice that his last effort, off the layoff as well, came on the TURF where he's winless in nine tries. And today he moves to the all-weather where he has won FIVE-of-nine starts? Duh, hello! I doubled the bet think certainly he'd be one of the short priced favorites if not odds-on at post time. No, only took mild support. Right to the front and never, ever had any worries going wire to wire. Paid a remarkable $8.20 allowing me to cash for over $40 and not only running the day's record to a perfect 3-for-3 but guaranteeing a winning day today.
I missed with Picture This in the fifth when leaving the gate at a gigantic 18/1 price and running a non-threatening sixth. The final bet of the day came in one of the better week-day match-ups of the winter. The top two favorites figured head and shoulders above the rest. Dorth Vader, who had won the 2023 Gr 2 GP Oaks and good races in Gr 1 events that year, was returning off a layoff that had seen her race only one time in 2024. Her main rival was Grand Job. This filly had shipped into North America and immediately broken her maiden, followed by a win in an entry level allowance. Off for ten weeks she ran here in the Grade 3 Royal Delta and was caught late when 2nd at 4/5 going two turns for the first time. The cut back to seven furlongs today seemed ideal. I liked her best and thought they would go off as similar priced favorites. Nope, the crowd saw what I did and sent 'Job off at 3/5. Dueled with a longshot to the turn, they drew off convincingly with 'Vader rallying late for a distant 2nd. I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $25 to finish the day 4-for-5 with a profit of more than $50! Momentum for the big day!
Saturday: Florida Derby Day
The big day had arrived and I collected the ten programs I'd created containing a dozen pages worth of handicapping insights along with the tickets for everyone, and Keith, Kim and I piled into my car at about 10:15am to head to Gulfstream for the long day of action. The skies were overcast with a small chance of light showers predicted to maybe pass over late in the day. Once we parked and got into the track we found five of the seven others waiting for us. Exchanged greetings and headed to our seats and took the obligatory "fashion photos" to post. I was happy that today when I posted the photo of Kim and I that rather than all the comments being about Kim - granted she looked oh-so-pretty - like two years ago, today we had over sixty reactions and all of them were about the two of us :)
Racing started promptly at 11:30am and I ran a fading sixth on the turf at 9/2. The second race was the only race on the card that I didn't plan to bet so I took the opportunity for Kim and I to head downstairs into the Breezeway Bar to find a Florida Derby Day signature drink in a souvenir glass. R3 was the first of the stakes events, the Cutler Bay on the turf for 3yo's. Forged Steel was the 4/5 choice and my top pick. He went right to the front and looked like he was a winner turning for home, but was caught in the final fifty yards. What was "interesting" to me was that the winner had been my fourth choice, and I'd remarked in my analysis that he was the class of the field but had never raced on turf. MIGHT have considered him more closely but the barn was winless with first-time-turf runners and the rider, legendary jockey Frankie Detorri had but one win this month riding here at Gulfstream. Sigh.....paid $15.20 to go with the $17.20 winner in the opener and the $22.00 winner in the second. Typical for this year at Gulfstream I told the group. Ran second as the 8/5 favorite in an Oaklawn MSW race before the horses were heading to the gate for the mile and a half Grade 3 Orchid on the turf at Gulfstream. The prep race for this had been a month ago, the Gr 3 The Very One. That day I'd had price play Beach Bomb who went wire to wire and paid over $9. I looked for someone to beat him today but thought he still held an edge over this field. Keith and I agreed that he most likely would NOT go to the lead today as there appeared to be other speed and the additional ground could prove problematic. The latch sprung and Luis Saez immediately seized control. He WAS clear on the front, but the pace was quicker and I was anxious when they hit the far turn. But turning for home he opened a clear lead and I was feeling good until the final two hundred yards when the closers were flying......PHOTO finish - oh so close but he had hung on as the 8/5 favorite and I was able to celebrate with my first winning ticket of the day!
Beach Bomb
The fifth was a 3yo MSW and I thought it looked wide open, but doubled the bet on a Saffie Joseph first time starter. Led into the far turn before giving way. The winner was one with experience who few bettors had figured on as he paid $53.80 to be the fourth longshot from five races. Next up was the second of the marathon turf events, the Grade 3 Pan American. I remembered Far Bridge from 2023 when he broke his maiden here and had gone on to win graded stakes for trainer Christophe Clement. He'd won back-to-back Grade 1 events last summer before trying the best turf runners in the world in the Breeders' Cup. I thought he looked MUCH the best and made him a "prime time" play. Sent off as the 4/5 favorite he tracked the leaders into the far turn in hand, moved to the leader turning for home and I thought he would take off to win going away. Instead the 10/1 front runner would not give in. Far Bridge was JUST in front in a head bobbing stretch duel before JUST gaining the advantage in the shadow of the wire. He was the winner, but far from the way I'd expect a "prime time" bet who was a 4/5 favorite to score! STILL - cashed for nearly $40 on my second winner of the day!
Missed at Oaklawn as a rain shower hit Gulfstream. Initially I stayed in the seats with my hat keeping the rain off me, but when the precipitation picked up I joined Keith & Kim in the breezeway. As the horses approached the gate the rain had become just off-and-on "spitting" and I wasn't about to miss my BET of the Day running here, as White Abarrio looked to be a runaway winner. The Saffie Joseph multiple Gr 1 winner was coming off a decisive score in the Grade 1 Pegasus, where the runner-up - Locked - had come back to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap and the third place finisher - Skippylongstockings - had come back to win a Gr 3 at Tampa. The biggest question for arguably the top older handicap horse in the country was why he had opted to pass the $20 Million Saudi Cup and the $12 Million Dubai World Cup - where he probably would have been favored in both - to run in this $165K Grade 3 event. I'd read that the connections were intent on running and winning the Grade 1 Met Mile later this spring and that this would serve as a better "bridge" to that goal. The field was grossly overmatched if he even ran his "B-" race. I'd listed him as a $30 WIN bet, but upped it to $50. Pressed the pace to the far turn with jockey Irad Ortiz motionless and galloped out like a morning workout without ever taking a deep breath. Wasn't so much about how much money I'd won as it was the confidence I'd had in the pick backed up by the big bet. I delightedly showed off my winning ticket for my video :)
I was 2nd at a big 6/1 in the next, an allowance event at Gulfstream (note the winner became the SIXTH longshot to win from eight races, paying $43.20), then very disappointed when my choice in Oaklawn's Matron Stakes was the 3/5 favorite couldn't catch the 3/1 front runner with my "prime time" wager on board. The Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks was next with 100 points to the winner for a berth in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday in May. I noted in my analysis that Five G was probably the most likely winner of the day based on all the typical handicapping tools one uses. In retrospect I should have at least upped the bet by a notch but without ever having run here and with a couple of locals MAYBE being able to surprise I just went for the double investment. They ran to the first finish line and Five G was never in trouble. Right to the front and kicked away to score by open lengths.
Missed in the next at GP where I thought the Sanibel Island was wide open....only bet the minimum (again, the winner was a big price - $26.40 - for the 7th longshot from ten races). Then was disappointed again at Oaklawn when multiple graded stakes winning Saudi Crown could not last the one mile trip in the Grade 3 Oaklawn mile. The 11th at Gulfstream was the Army Mule, formerly the Sir Shackleton and I thought Knightsbridge was one of the top picks on the day. But he scratched out. Looked over the field and couldn't find anyone that I liked enough to bet. The only thing I WAS confident in was that the horse who'd upset Knightsbridge last time would NOT win. He didn't - the winner paid a "fair" $10.40 and I considered him, but I couldn't get past the fact that the last time he'd won had been in September of 2023 - oh my - in a turf sprint at Kentucky Downs! I got back to a winning pick when Zero Sugar exited a best-of-the-rest 2nd in his debut behind Bob Baffert's runaway $1.1 Million colt a month ago - and that one was the 7/5 morning line choice in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby later today. My horse scratched from 12th and I didn't like anyone else. In the 13th at Gulfstream - the Appleton Stakes - Todd Pletcher's Major Dude was a very likely winner and sent off as the 4/5 favorite. The gate opened and he was last after missing the break. Waited too long to move, and was buried inside without anywhere to run, just a nightmare trip. Mark that one down for his next start, wow. And picked up the final win of the day in the American Pharoah at Oaklawn. Bishop's Bay set out on the lead and was clear turning for home when he began drifting out. A rival was coming to him then ducked down inside some six paths to the rail. Actually got in front before Bishop's Bay surged to be JUST in front. A long, LONG steward's review of a jockey's objection was finally dismissed and I cashed for $20 on the even money favorite.
Zero Sugar hits the line first in Oaklawn's 9th
Bishop's Bay survives the objection to win the American Pharoah
I didn't think that this year's Florida Derby was filled with potential stars but the more I looked at the winner of the Fountain of Youth, Sovereignty, the more I thought he'd take a big step forward and blow by the field to win. He rallied, but without the same kind of acceleration he'd shown that day - and if I were guessing I'd say the connections were "happy enough" to get a "good" effort with the ultimate goal being to win on the first Saturday in May. The winner, a third time starter from Brad Cox's barn was in my top four list of contenders, but I just didn't think he was "good enough" to bet on.
For the day I hit four of eleven - a typical 36% - and compared to the other "paid" experts I had about the same kind of day (though throughout the meet I'd clearly been the better handicapper on the big stakes days). By the numbers for the winter it was "typical." I was surprised (a) by how "well" I'd done, because my impression was not only was I betting a lot less, it seemed I was winning a lot less than I did - and losing a lot more money than I thought I was. Instead, as you see in the Gulfstream comparison below, the number of bets / wins / and ROI for the winter was pretty much "typical" for this time of year. As always, it's the time of year I enjoy most of the racing year because I play every live card, but despite all the numbers I was disappointed in the quality of racing this year. On to the spring and the Triple Crown season with the Opening Day at Keeneland next Friday!
Social media this week......
Unlike two years ago when I posted the photo of Kim and I in our Florida Derby outfits and everyone remarked solely about Kim, this year everyone remarked how good WE looked. I highlighted below five of "my girls" who took special notice!
One of my former students, Michelle, who is so sweet and went through a painful breakup a few years ago seems to have found someone and I commented on her recent post and she thanked me.
Karli Barnett posted a pic and I commented to which she replied :) Miss "talking" with her regularly via messages and Facebook chats.
On Derby Day I sent Chloe Nelson a pic of me with the Derby drink because I had bought her one last year and she promised to buy me one this year. But she had a wedding so I told her she still owed me. And she promised she would fulfill the obligation.
Teri Hornstein and I exchanged several messages with two separate "conversations" - first she liked the "tomorrow is Derby Day" and how sweet was she to ask how Kim was doing? And when i asked about her ankle she said it was better, still hurt, but was going back to work on Monday. When I sent her pics from the Derby - as I do on all our adventures - she commented how much she liked our outfits and asked about winning :)
Lauren Pastrana and I had gone a couple of months where we exchanged not just "likes" but comments back and forth many times during the week, often every day until last week where it was just a couple of "likes" and for some reason - I get it, she's got a real life with a husband, two kids, and a full time job - where I just saw that she'd "seen" the comment and/or photo but didn't comment. But back to our "normal relationship" this week :) When she posted early in the week that on the script for the news she was supposed to read "I'm Lauren Rodriguez" we exchanged comments / emoji's. She posted pics of herself in Marlins' jerseys and remarked about it being Opening Day so I messaged her that I was sure her baseball-playing/star son would certainly be going and she replied it was the first Opening Day he'd missed in years but would be going over the weekend. Then on Sunday we exchanged messages about that and she remarked her son & husband had gone that day. I sent her the pic I posted on FB about "tomorrow is the BIG day, Fla Derby Day" and she replied to have fun. And then because it's the first of our 2025 adventures I sent her a few highlight pics - as I do on all the trips - figuring she'd like that and she did and commented back :)
