Sunday, December 21, 2025

Gulfstream 2025: Week 4

 December 18 - 21

First week back from our big Christmas Markets adventure and it was back to a regular routine.  I decided to see if I could bring some winter snow to So Fla so I tried the FB messenger AI program.  After trying several different directives I finally was able to get a snow-covered pool-deck in our back yard.  How "cool" is that, literally.  Then I took a video of myself with the morning coffee in a Christmas/Mickey sweater and took three still poses from it.  Manipulated it the same way until I got another snowy scene.  Check the photo at the bottom of the journal and note not only how it created this winter scene, but the details.  In particular, note how there is snow on my shoe :)  For the races this week, I got my first winner in the second on Thursday, a maiden claiming turf route.  I had originally planned to pass the race but had noted that Amelia was the only runner who'd run to par, but that was on the synthetic.  Wasn't ready to pull the trigger in a cheap $17.5K maiden event until while watching FanDuel TV both analysts singled her in a multi-race sequence.  Jumped in and she won for fun.

Ran second and third in the other two bets before the finale where I had selected Cairo Comedy in this 2yo maiden claiming turf route.  She'd only tried turf once in her four-race career but it had produced the best figure she'd ever run.  Saved ground thru the far turn, swung three wide into the lane and powered past to score.  And at a healthy $6.60 payoff which was nice.

Friday I thought I had a real chance in four races but two scratched out.  The "Bet of the Week" came in the featured seventh, an allowance event which marked the return of 2024 Florida Derby winner Tappan Street.  Had not been seen since the Derby last March....facing older for the first time.....and certainly has bigger targets down the road.  But on paper he just looked so much the best.  Tracked the leaders into the turn while being encouraged all the way.  Worked hard to run down the leader in the final furlong but was clearly the class of the field.  To me it appeared that he wasn't fully geared up, but as I anticipated, on talent alone he was just too good for this field.  The biggest "ticket" I cashed for the week came later in the day Thursday as the distribution of the $2.5 Million sales of my filly Seismic Beauty was distributed.  I was hoping for maybe $50 or so, but instead it was over $150 per share and I had two shares - whooooo hoooooo!


Saturday I normally either would have played more tracks and/or actually gone to Gulfstream as it was the first big Saturday of the winter with multiple stakes races.  But there was a Panthers hockey game with an early 6pm faceoff and we were taking our two grandsons and their Mom to the game, so I played only the Fair Grounds & Gulfstream from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center."  Unfortunately through the first four plus hours of racing I cashed only one ticket from the ten races I played.  OUCH, that's not a good sign for the way the day would turn out.  Only Lynn's Milky Way was able to get to the wire - and just barely at that - in an entry level allowance sprint.  Made the rest of the bets and we headed to the game.

We enjoyed being at the game but after two periods our Panthers ran out of gas.  Understandably as Friday night they'd rallied from 0-3 with ten minutes left in the game to pull out a remarkable shoot-out win 4-3.  Once we returned home I pulled up the replays starting with the Grade 3 Harlan's Holiday, the local prep for next month's $3 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup.  I like Saffie Joseph's Skippylongstocking who I anticipated being overbet to a short priced favorite.  He was 4-for-5 at this distance and off a freshening since disappointing in the longer Gr 2 Charles Town Classic I expected a bounce back effort.  Surprisingly he did NOT go off as the favorite.  Saved ground between and behind horses to the top of the lane when Tyler Gaffalione split rivals and got to the front heading for the first finish line.  Dueled to the final 100 yards before just edging clear.  The generous $6.80 payoff led to a return of over $50!

In New Orleans they too had a multi-stakes program, the "Road To The Derby Kickoff" which featured two 2yo stakes as preps for their Oaks & Derby later this spring.  In the Tenacious Stakes my top choice scratched out but I had thought that Not This Boy was the horse to beat so I went with him.  Right to the front and was pressured all the way.  In the lane he dug in and gamely was first on the wire!

Made it three in a row in the Grade 3 Fort Lauderdale going 9f on the turf, the prep for the Gr 1 Pegasus Turf with Wolfie's Dynaghost.  Like the Tenacious, my top choice scratched out but I had thought that the one to fear was 'Wolfie who had a chance to steal it.  Set a wicked :22 and change, :45 and change pace - way too fast for the distance and I was certain he'd fade.  But instead he kicked away through the lane and set a new course record!

Ran second in another FG stakes before the 2yo filly Hit Parade dueled through the lane and was JUST up on the wire to win the Untappable Stakes.  Lost the final play, but I'd finished the day with a 4-for-6 rally and came close to getting back to even on the day.  Considering the way the day started, I was delighted with those results!

Sunday I began the racing day in R2, a Maiden Optional Claiming where Todd Pletcher's $400K Been Busy looked to have found a pretty soft field.  Pressed the leader into the lane, dueled to the 16th pole then edged clear late.

Sky's Not Falling was the DRF BEST Bet of the Day in R5.  I thought in this $35K "beaten" turf route he looked best, but far from being a "best" bet.  Tracked the leaders while fourth to the top of the stretch.  Swung out into the clear and ran them all down for my second win.

Closed the day and the week with Maerdama in a two-lifetime claiming sprint.  I got a little extra satisfaction when GP analyst Brian Nandau - who I don't think is much of a handicapper honestly - said he would be playing against the likely favorite.  OK, so he's had some winners over the years, but his opinion does little if anything to influence my choices.  In fact I prefer that he goes a different direction :)

Saturday Racing Highlights

Happy Holidays!






Social media this week............

Back home we're back to little human interaction except with my lovely wife, so I was appreciative of some social media contact this week.  This week was Chloe Nelson's birthday.  Loved the pic of her and her puppy, Millie :)

One of the highlights of the week came while I was at the hockey game on Friday.  I opened FB during the second intermission and there was Karli Barnett doing a FB Live.  So, even though I couldn't hear in the arena I messaged her a "Happy Holidays" message and figured I would check after the game to see if she saw it and replied.  I was so delighted when I saw that she did see it, and the look of happiness (captured in the still below) was really cool for me.  And then she not only remarked about the game but went on to talk about how I was a "world traveler" and must be back from my Christmas Markets trip.  She's a sweet girl and I appreciate her friendship.


Regular gal-pal Lauren Pastrana and I had several interactions this week - about her two well-deserved Emmy awards and about the retirement of her 10-year partner and long time So Fla news anchor Elliot Rodriguez.
















Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Gulfstream 2025-26: Weeks 2 & 3

 Christmas On The Elbe
December 5 - 15
Racing From Europe!

I handicapped all four days of the Week 2 programs from Gulfstream and was able to place the bets on Thursday & watch the races.  Same on Friday and then at 8pm our driver arrived to take us to Miami International to begin our holiday Christmas Markets cruise.

The week started out "ok" as I won two of four on Thursday.  But as I watched on Friday, anticipating the big trip, but failed to score with any of the three picks.

Ripton's Music draws off in the fourth
Itza Lock easily in the Thursday finale

Saturday & Sunday was not the best span of handicapping as I won only one race on the Saturday program before finishing 2-for-4 on Sunday.
Fly Erik Fly edges clear in the Saturday finale
Valiant Winter draws off in Sunday's 3rd
Nemo rallies to win the Sunday finale

Week 3
I wasn't sure I'd handicap and/or play this week but as it turned out (a) I did have enough free time to do the handicapping and (b) it went a lot faster than usual as the cards were pretty light on runners who I felt had a legitimate angle worth betting on.  Thursday the day was a great one.  My youngest son Brad made the bets for me and when I woke up on Friday (six hour time difference in Germany) I was able to pull up the charts and see that I'd won with ALL FOUR selections!  Whoooooo hooooo!!!

Girvin Star draws off in a wire-to-wire win
Maitre D - another wire-to-wire winner!
Irwin rallies from the back to take R5
Gabaldon long gone in the eighth

Friday I had only two bets - see what I'm saying about a lack of racing quality?  And I won with one of them.
Neodora draws off after leading all the way
Then on Saturday I won with three of six picks and I closed the week out by winning two-of-four on Sunday.  A MUCH better week of handicapping with the final tally being 11-for-16!
Rebel With A Clue holds on to open the Saturday card
Firster Jackson Hole edges clear to win on debut in Saturday's fourth
Imperatrice repulses the challengers to draw clear in the 9th
Sunday
Gold Pole wins by a pole as the odds-on favorite
Accelerize kicks clear to score in the Sunday finale


To review our trip, GO HERE:


Social Media on the trip.....
My gal-pal Teri, who's now in Washington DC followed along on the trip though commented far fewer times than in the past.  Part of that whole "work & marriage" things taking up her time I'm sure1



Lauren Pastrana wasn't as "talkative" as she has been in the past, but she "liked" a lot of my posts/messages including when we signed on the condo in Orlando to close the deal and when I let her know I was watching from Orlando before we left.  Then on the trip she "liked" 13 different posts.  My favorite was when we were sailing on the Elbe and I sent her a photo of me having hot chocolate on the top deck and remarked that of all the people I knew, she'd be the most appreciative of that photo.  And within a minute she had "liked" it :)




Karli Barnett and I used to stay in pretty close contact via Instagram and she always enjoyed following our trips   And when she'd have a 'FaceBook LIVE" chat she always talked about me as "our resident world traveler."  But since she moved to Atlanta we aren't nearly in touch as often.  Last year I sent a Christmas card to her at the news station where she works and she seemed very appreciative.  I did the same this year and she seemed even more heartfelt appreciative.  She also commented on our trip when online at that point :)







Sunday, November 30, 2025

Gulfstream 2025-26: Week 1

 November 27 -30
Opening Weekend at Gulfstream

The winter season at Gulfstream got underway with a Thanksgiving Day Opening Day card, followed by racing through Sunday.  Handicapped and played all four days and after a slow Thursday the rest of the weekend went very well.  I will say, that since Gulfstream has begun opening up in late November it doesn't quite seem like the Championship Meet.  And with Kim and I heading off to Europe for a Christmas Markets adventure with our good friends Pam & Bob next Friday, it seems even less like the start of the winter season - but in fact it is.  Here's how the week played out.  

Thursday November 27:  Well, Opening Day could not have started off in a less "go figure" kind of way.  The first bet of the day and the meet so me backing Vuela Paloma in a nw3L synthetic sprint and she was 2nd as the prohibitive 1/5 choice.  WOW.  The 5th was my next bet at Gulfstream and it was originally carded for the turf where I'd made Moon Spun my choice.  Because of some light rain (WOW squared) the grass races were moved to the synthetic, and while Moon Spun stayed in I opted to not bet the race.  Went wire-to-wire and paid over $10.....WOW x three.  Finally got on the board at the Fair Grounds when Voila Magic was the obvious choice and won by a pole to get me on the board for the first winner of the day.


Stayed for a couple hours and wanted to see the featured race which was kept on the turf when scratches & changes were announced.  But when betting opened I looked up and it had been taken off the turf and my pick scratched so I headed home.  I had made two bets before leaving - one on that GP feature race, so I'll "cash" that next time there - and one on Beekman Street in the fourth at the Fair Grounds.  He was a 2yo in a MSW turf route coming off of a flying 3rd on debut, then last time out missing by 3/4 of a length at Delaware.  Tracked the leaders....split rivals got to the front and just held on.  Best part of that story, he went off at a big 5/1 price so I'll cash a nearly $35 ticket with the refund.

The final half dozen picks I made on my Xpressbet app to use my online account.  Missed with the first five before Pursuitneversleeps scored at even money in Louisville.

Friday November 28:  The day after Thanksgiving I not only played the Gulfstream races but there were some big stakes events at Churchill Downs so I wanted to play there as well.  Much like Thursday I started slowly with five misses (two 2nd and a 3rd) before rattling off three straight wins.  The first was in the 7th at Churchill Downs when Lend It Tewmey dueled to the top of the lane and drew off in a cheap, $12.5K one-turn mile claiming event as the 3/2 favorite.  

The second of the three-race winning streak was the story of the day, if not the weekend.  So, first, remember back yesterday when I opted NOT to play Moon Spun when the races came off the turf?  In today's feature at Gulfstream Park, the Pulpit Stakes for two-year-olds, I'd picked Glorious Boy on top in this seven-and-a-half turf test.  He'd never been farther than six furlongs but his distance Tomlinson ratings said he'd enjoy a route of ground.  He'd won on debut in a 6f dirt sprint then was a good second in the Awad Stakes going six panels on the turf in New York.  Throw in what had happened with Moon Spun and it wasn't a stretch to take him on the synthetic.  I was already willing to bet he'd go a distance of ground without proof - and with his sharp tries on both dirt and turf, why wouldn't he handle a third surface?  Kim and I headed off to a later afternoon Panthers game with a 4pm puck drop.  During the first intermission I pulled up the replay.  Sat mid-pack along the rail and it looked to me like he had some run entering the far turn.  Swung way wide into the lane but with a lot of momentum.  The leader drifted out to the middle of the track so my jockey made a hard left and dove to the rail.  The leader went with him and for a 16th of a mile it was one head up and one head down....PHOTO finish.  Watched the slow-mo and still couldn't tell.  Flipped back to the results and I'd won!  AND best of all, paid $19.40 for a $2 ticket which meant I'd cash for almost $100 :)  YOWZA.  Later after the game when I watched the replay and read the results chart I discovered that Glorious Boy had actually dead heated for the win, but the other horse was subsequently DQ'd for "herding" my horse.  It was a winning day regardless of the rest of the races :)

The "BEST" of the day came in Churchill's Grade 2 Mrs. Revere where I thought Lush Lips looked formidable.  OK, three-year-old fillies on the turf and even though Lush Lips won a Gr 1 last time out, turf races in general are never runaways, and you never know who's going to suddenly improve or decline.  But still,  Pressed the 5/1 front runner to the stretch, took a narrow lead.  But then instead of lengthening stride and pulling away she was desperate to hold on.  But despite the best efforts of her rivals she did indeed hold on and I cashed for over $30.

Saturday November 29:  The big feature race at Gulfstream today was the $300K Florida Sire Stakes where MY filly Love Like Lucy was entered.  All the pre-race workouts and information from MRH seemed to say she had a good chance.  But when the field was announced our ownership group commented "we'll have a hard time getting by the likely 1/9 favorite Mythical" - and that made me less inclined to want to spend the afternoon at the races.  Meanwhile, the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes were facing "that team from up north" with a noon kickoff and I always enjoy watching "The Game" as it's known nationally.  So despite having picks from Gulfstream, Churchill, and later Del Mar, I opted to watch from the Sunrise Simulcast Center and follow the football game as well.  We spent the morning putting up the Christmas Tree.  Because of my love of Disney the tree used to be largely a Disney-themed tree.  But because of our "tradition" of getting Christmas ornaments on our trips I'd bet nearly 2/3 of the tree is now travel themed.



The OSU game was a battle, and the Buckeyes did NOT start well.  But in the end they were just too good and won 27-9.  At the races I missed the first two - with favorites - at Gulfstream.  Race 5 was the highlighted filly stakes event and Mythical did indeed look really hard to go against.  I noted that she was a "bad bet" to take what figured to be a miniscule price on a lightly raced 2yo who'd never tried two turns before.  But it looked like my filly was the next best option and I had a hard time believing she could make up the more than 12 lengths that separated them last time out.  As they went in the gate and Mythical was at 1/9 it reminded me of a few years ago when I went out to see an unbeaten colt look to run away with the colt's version of this event, the In Reality.  He'd also been 1/9 and was cruising into the stretch before being run down.  Mythical went right to the front.  Held a daylight lead into the lane and while she did have to work through the final 200 yards she was still clear to the wire as the "BEST Bet of the Day."

Less than ten minutes later two-year-olds were headed to the post in the first of the Churchill stakes today, the Fern Creek carded at six and a half furlongs.  Bob Baffert's $1 Million, lightly raced Boyd looked to take a lot of beating today.  He'd won his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs in a sizzling time with a huge 92 Beyer.  Sure, he'd have to stretch out, ship across the country, and face winners.  But when Bob Baffert comes to Louisville he is always serious.  Bobbled slightly at the break, recovered and dueled to the far turn.  Edged to the front turning for home then turned on the afterburners and ran away as easily best.  

Missed the next two, both added money events.  Then in the 6th under the Twin Spires we were going two turns on the turf with maiden special two-year-olds.  Brad Cox's Kentucky Belle had "paired" figures when third and then 2nd in her first two starts.  Sent off as the 6/5 favorite she tracked in fourth to the turn.  Blew by while wide but in the clear then drew away in the final furlong.  Another skid followed with a 2nd, two 3rds, a fourth and a fifth before finally getting back to the winner's circle.  The tenth at Churchill was the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club going a mile and a sixteenth with Kentucky Derby points on the line for the juvenile colts.  Further Ado had earned a massive 98 Beyer when running away by twenty lengths - yes, 20 - in his first try around two turns.  Had to go with the "NOW" horse.  Tracked wide through the turn....was floated even wider turning for home before rallying strongly down the middle of the lane to draw clear.


Had one more winner left in me.  Cannoneer was a $1.75 Million sales grad and had broken poorly and rushed up as the 4/5 favorite in her June debut before weakening.  Stronger and more mature I had to believe she'd be much improved today.  Right to the front and was quickly clear.  Kicked away to draw off through the stretch as EASILY much the best.

Sunday November 30:  This morning we got up early to drive to Orlando.  The main reason was not only to visit the kids but Monday morning we were closing with all the paperwork on our newly purchased condo near Disney Springs.  We got to our son Brad's house by 10:30, plenty of time to make my wagers.  And is almost always the case on Sundays, I had to wonder if today would lead to disappointment with "just" some normal races (no big stakes) or if I'd pick up a few wins.  Well shazam, shazam, shazam  as Gomer Pyle used to say on the 1960's comedy show....I rattled off four straight wins including a runaway winner in the featured Islamorada Stakes!

Augustinian WINS the Gulfstream opener
Mystic Sea Scores at 5/2 in the fourth
Make it THREE in a row when scoring in the feature!
Canton completes the "superfecta" of wins at a nice 3/1 price

2015 Reston Road condo - that's ours on the second floor on the left
NOTE: the balcony looks out over the lake :)

For the next two racing weekends Kim and I will be enjoying a Viking Christmas Markets adventure with our great friends Bob & Pam Murray as we travel from Prague in the Czech Republic...sail along the Elbe River and conclude the trip in Berline before returning Monday December 15th.  My plan is to continue handicapping the GP races while we are gone.

CLICK HERE to preview/follow our trip




Social Media this week.....

Exchanged holiday greetings with several of my online pals.  Tatiana, one of my most favorite former students and I exchanged messages with her saying she'd visit us at our new condo :)

My "Disney girl" Amanda and I also exchanged holiday greetings.....

I had a fun "conversation" with former Western High student Jen about Christmas traditions :)

Chloe - my "Florida Derby girl" and I exchanged Thanksgiving well wishes.....

Kimmy - my MOST favorite former student and I exchanged Turkey Day well wishes....

And finally, I heard from both my newscast girls Teri & Lauren about the holiday and our new condo.







Gulfstream 2025: Week 4

  December 18 - 21 First week back from our big Christmas Markets adventure and it was back to a regular routine.  I decided to see if I cou...